Грязные трусы мировой экономики - Инфляция, Рост, Ставки

Key Takeaways

• Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz creates volatility in the oil market, but the market is pricing in either de-escalation or demand destruction due to high prices.
• Saudi Arabia offered a discount on oil to China, indicating weak demand and dominance of the demand destruction scenario over inflation.
• The manufacturing PMI and the number of US oil rigs are not growing, confirming that economic growth is absent and energy demand is declining.
• The long-term trend of declining inflation since 2022 continues, despite spring spikes, and the disinflationary cycle remains in effect.
• The US CPI coming in below expectations refutes the need for rate hikes, similar to 2008 when an oil price shock led to a recession.
• PCE inflation indicators from Fed branches (Cleveland and Dallas) are lower than official figures, pointing to inflated headline numbers and the importance of the rate of change for capital allocation.