Full Transcript
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgqD4ZyGD20
[00:00] Hello everyone, today is the 21st of May.
[00:04] Hello everyone, today is the 21st of May 2026 and in today's just started daily episode.
[00:08] 2026 and in today's just started daily episode.
[00:09] I cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
[00:10] I cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
[00:14] cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
[00:17] the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
[00:20] price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday and share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:26] market that we observed on Wednesday and share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:31] share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:35] are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:38] innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:40] manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:42] before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:43] this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:46] stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:47] eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:49] reality cannot be hidden anymore.
[00:50] be hidden anymore.
[00:52] hidden anymore. Before we begin, don't forget to like the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
[00:55] Before we begin, don't forget to like the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
[00:57] the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
[00:59] turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
[01:04] All right, so let's begin with uh.
[01:08] All right, so let's begin with uh what happened yesterday.
[01:11] what happened yesterday.
[01:12] At 10:30 Eastern times.
[01:16] the latest EIA US oil crude inventories report was released and uh.
[01:23] the data that came out of it was uh utterly shocking or that was what it was supposed to be effectively.
[01:37] that was what it was supposed to be effectively.
[01:38] And as you can see in this chart yesterday was the largest drawdown in crude oil inventories combining commercial and strategic petroleum reserves ever recorded.
[01:54] ever recorded in history since data started to be compiling in 1982.
[02:07] And here you can observe the details that have been released with a crude oil drawdown of about 18 million barrels last week.
[02:20] And for a total stocks inventory drawdown of almost 19 million barrels combining crude oil and products.
[02:32] And what's notice- noticeable is that you can barely see any positive change in that table whatsoever.
[02:41] All those few positive changes are barely above the upper line at all.
[02:48] But, you know what? Of course, like this data were for sure available to those in charge.
[02:57] And you might have been expected um a very bad market reaction when this news hit the tape.
[03:08] hit the tape.
[03:09] So, 15 minutes before this really gloomy report was released, this really gloomy report was released, you we got a incredibly timely, timely fake news that hit the tape.
[03:28] And fake news that hit the tape.
[03:30] And here is what it says.
[03:32] Evan Source, "Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran."
[03:44] Wow.
[03:46] I mean, this might be the all-time lows of fake news because anyone with um couple of grams of brain can quickly observe how this headline by itself is odd to say the least.
[04:06] But nevertheless, all the news
[04:10] But nevertheless, all the news aggregator account on X started reposting it right away.
[04:16] And unsurprisingly, the market reacted.
[04:20] Here is the particular thing.
[04:22] This fake news reported by this Haladat account was so fake that nobody else, including Axios, dared to report it.
[04:39] I mean, it's so blatant.
[04:41] And this account is not even any particular like major news provider in the Middle East or in media in general.
[04:49] It is actually an uh news aggregator account by itself that runs um very sketchy website, an X account with um a decent follow, although this follow like picked up lately, and a rather popular Telegram account.
[05:07] Uh what's interesting about this is that um you see this post, right, on the
[05:12] Um, you see this post, right, on the screen?
[05:13] Screen? If you go check their website and their Telegram accounts or the other channels they used to distribute news, you cannot find any trace whatsoever of this headline.
[05:26] And here you can see the exact timing and impact on the chart.
[05:33] I mean, when that headline drops, the market right away started to move and oil price crashed below $100 immediately.
[05:44] And then when 15 minutes after the EIA report drops and the headline follows.
[05:53] For example, this is incredible headline, "U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week on strong demand."
[06:04] The market briefly caught up to then start dumping.
[06:07] Again, because of course at that point,
[06:13] Because of course at that point, momentum trading algorithm caught up.
[06:16] Momentum trading algorithm caught up and they had to follow suit.
[06:20] They had to follow suit.
[06:22] And what I would I like to highlight in this headline is what I exactly tried to emphasize in my latest video.
[06:26] To highlight in this headline is what I exactly tried to emphasize in my latest video is that there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
[06:35] That there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
[06:37] Whatsoever.
[06:39] So far everything in the market, the oil shock that is spreading and worsening day by day with every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
[06:47] Spreading and worsening day by day with every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
[06:49] Every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
[06:54] Hormuz doesn't reopen.
[06:55] The there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
[06:57] There is no demand destruction whatsoever.
[06:59] Whatsoever. It remains strong because everyone from commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:01] Everyone from commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:05] Commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:07] Drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:10] The false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:12] Situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
[07:16] swiftly be solved and everything goes back to what it was on the 27th of February.
[07:22] While the reality, to be fair, is completely different.
[07:26] And still, even if many people like to ignore it because they rather follow the very bogus price momentum in the market,
[07:34] sooner or later, perhaps very soon because otherwise we wouldn't be here discussing about this,
[07:42] a brick wall will be hit and the reality will not be possible to ignore any longer because you will go to the gas station and you know what?
[07:53] The price is going to be much higher and perhaps even if you're able to pay that price, there's not going to be enough gasoline in the tanks.
[08:05] Here was the market reaction.
[08:08] As you can see, incredibly bullish.
[08:10] Oil started to tank.
[08:11] The stocks jumped immediately and the US Treasury yields
[08:20] And the US Treasury yields tanked of 10 basis points as a result.
[08:25] Tanked of 10 basis points as a result.
[08:28] Even if towards the end of the day, like things started to converge, albeit markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
[08:32] Things started to converge, albeit markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
[08:37] Markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
[08:38] For the day.
[08:42] Even after several hours, it was pretty clear that this was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:44] Clear that this was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:46] This was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:49] Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:50] He doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:54] Doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:58] Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
[08:59] Said, decide to be smart.
[09:02] Decide to be smart.
[09:04] Smart.
[09:06] However, there was one exception in the market overall and this exception, incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
[09:08] Market overall and this exception, incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
[09:12] Incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
[09:15] As you can see in front of you, the Japanese yen was the only asset in financial markets that didn't
[09:18] Yen was the only asset in financial markets that didn't
[09:21] asset in financial markets that didn't benefit whatsoever from the snap in price momentum that turned from bearish to bullish even if it didn't make any sense whatsoever and clashed greatly with the reality.
[09:43] And here is is my view about this.
[09:45] The view is that the situation in Japan is so bad that even if this doesn't work any longer whatsoever to give some respite to the financial stress the country is experiencing, then we need to keep our eyes very open because you know, the government can intervene again, but clearly the market is not swallowing any positive, you know, narrative of course, fabricated and any sort of
[10:22] Of course, fabricated and any sort of nonsense that came out.
[10:24] Nonsense that came out from that corner of the globe in in order to boost.
[10:28] In order to boost, you know, their standing in the market.
[10:34] You know, their standing in the market and try to ease a situation that is worsening and worse in Japan.
[10:40] Because let's not forget besides their massive and mounting financial trouble in Japan, they're also a country that imports the vast majority of its oil and oil derivatives as it's very.
[10:57] It's very very um on the forefront of the damages when the oil supply shock is going to hit the hardest.
[11:16] You are to conclude.
[11:18] You are to conclude. Thanks a lot for listening to my update today, for supporting me on X, on
[11:23] Today, for supporting me on X, on Instagram, and for reading my research on justadario.com.
[11:27] In particular, today I just published an article where I reviewed the latest um Nvidia earnings that came after the bell.
[11:40] Um and I suggest you to take a take a look at it.
[11:43] I decided uh not to share that update here on YouTube because um you know, it's very technical and uh perhaps it might just be appealing only to um very few um of you.
[11:58] So, I became mindful of that.
[12:02] Thanks a lot again and uh have a nice day.
Full Transcript (Bilingual)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgqD4ZyGD20
Translation: zh-CN
[00:00] Hello everyone, today is the 21st of May.
大家好，今天是5月21日。
[00:04] Hello everyone, today is the 21st of May 2026 and in today's just started daily episode.
大家好，今天是2026年5月21日，在我们刚刚开始的每日节目中。
[00:08] 2026 and in today's just started daily episode.
2026年，在我们刚刚开始的每日节目中。
[00:09] I cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
我不能不提请大家注意，我们周三观察到的整个期货市场中令人难以置信的价格操纵的最新一集。
[00:10] I cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
我不能不提请大家注意，我们周三观察到的整个期货市场中令人难以置信的价格操纵的最新一集。
[00:14] cannot avoid to bring the attention to the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
不能不提请大家注意，我们周三观察到的整个期货市场中令人难以置信的价格操纵的最新一集。
[00:17] the latest episode of incredible price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday.
我们周三观察到的整个期货市场中令人难以置信的价格操纵的最新一集。
[00:20] price manipulation in the whole futures market that we observed on Wednesday and share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
价格操纵，我们周三观察到的整个期货市场，并分享我的观点，为什么我相信我们正在目睹的可能是伟大的石油价格操纵计划的最后阶段，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:26] market that we observed on Wednesday and share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
市场，我们周三观察到的，并分享我的观点，为什么我相信我们正在目睹的可能是伟大的石油价格操纵计划的最后阶段，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:31] share my views on why I believe what we are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
分享我的观点，为什么我相信我们正在目睹的可能是伟大的石油价格操纵计划的最后阶段，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:35] are witnessing is perhaps the last innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
我们正在目睹的可能是伟大的石油价格操纵计划的最后阶段，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:38] innings of the great oil price manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
伟大的石油价格操纵计划的阶段，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:40] manipulation scheme before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
操纵计划，在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:42] before this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
在此之前，当现实最终无法再隐藏时，就会发出警告。
[00:43] this stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
此停止警告，当现实最终无法再隐藏时。
[00:46] stops warning when eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
停止警告，当现实最终无法再隐藏时。
[00:47] eventually reality cannot be hidden anymore.
最终现实无法再隐藏。
[00:49] reality cannot be hidden anymore.
现实无法再隐藏。
[00:50] be hidden anymore.
无法再隐藏。
[00:52] hidden anymore. Before we begin, don't forget to like the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
无法再隐藏。在我们开始之前，别忘了点赞视频，订阅频道并打开通知，这样你就不会错过我未来的任何更新。
[00:55] Before we begin, don't forget to like the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
在我们开始之前，别忘了点赞视频，订阅频道并打开通知，这样你就不会错过我未来的任何更新。
[00:57] the video, subscribe to the channel and turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
视频，订阅频道并打开通知，这样你就不会错过我未来的任何更新。
[00:59] turn on the notifications if you don't want to miss any of my future updates.
打开通知，这样你就不会错过我未来的任何更新。
[01:04] All right, so let's begin with uh.
好的，那么我们开始吧。
[01:08] All right, so let's begin with uh what happened yesterday.
好的，那么我们开始讨论昨天发生的事情吧。
[01:11] what happened yesterday.
昨天发生了什么。
[01:12] At 10:30 Eastern times.
美国东部时间上午10:30。
[01:16] the latest EIA US oil crude inventories report was released and uh.
最新的EIA美国原油库存报告已发布，而且...
[01:23] the data that came out of it was uh utterly shocking or that was what it was supposed to be effectively.
从中得出的数据令人震惊，或者说，这正是它应该起到的作用。
[01:37] that was what it was supposed to be effectively.
这正是它应该起到的作用。
[01:38] And as you can see in this chart yesterday was the largest drawdown in crude oil inventories combining commercial and strategic petroleum reserves ever recorded.
正如您在此图表中看到的，昨天是商业和战略石油储备合并以来原油库存下降幅度最大的一次，是有史以来记录到的。
[01:54] ever recorded in history since data started to be compiling in 1982.
自1982年开始汇编数据以来，在历史上记录到的。
[02:07] And here you can observe the details that have been released with a crude oil drawdown of about 18 million barrels last week.
在这里，你可以看到上周原油减少了约1800万桶的详细信息。
[02:20] And for a total stocks inventory drawdown of almost 19 million barrels combining crude oil and products.
总库存减少了近1900万桶，包括原油和成品油。
[02:32] And what's notice- noticeable is that you can barely see any positive change in that table whatsoever.
值得注意的是，你几乎看不到该表中任何积极的变化。
[02:41] All those few positive changes are barely above the upper line at all.
所有那些少数的积极变化都几乎触及了上限。
[02:48] But, you know what? Of course, like this data were for sure available to those in charge.
但是，你知道吗？当然，这些数据肯定对负责的人来说是可用的。
[02:57] And you might have been expected um a very bad market reaction when this news hit the tape.
当这个消息传出时，你可能已经预料到市场会有非常糟糕的反应。
[03:08] hit the tape.
击中了市场。
[03:09] So, 15 minutes before this really gloomy report was released, this really gloomy report was released, you we got a incredibly timely, timely fake news that hit the tape.
所以，在这份非常悲观的报告发布前15分钟，我们收到了一个极其及时的假新闻，击中了市场。
[03:28] And fake news that hit the tape.
而且是击中了市场的假新闻。
[03:30] And here is what it says.
以下是它的内容。
[03:32] Evan Source, "Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran."
埃文·索斯说：“正在认真进行工作，为华盛顿和德黑兰之间的协议文本做最后的润色。”
[03:44] Wow.
哇。
[03:46] I mean, this might be the all-time lows of fake news because anyone with um couple of grams of brain can quickly observe how this headline by itself is odd to say the least.
我是说，这可能是假新闻的最低谷了，因为任何有点脑子的人都能很快看出这个标题本身有多么奇怪，至少可以说。
[04:06] But nevertheless, all the news
但尽管如此，所有新闻
[04:10] But nevertheless, all the news aggregator account on X started reposting it right away.
但尽管如此，X上的所有新闻聚合器账户都开始立即转发它。
[04:16] And unsurprisingly, the market reacted.
而且不出所料，市场做出了反应。
[04:20] Here is the particular thing.
这里有一个特别的事情。
[04:22] This fake news reported by this Haladat account was so fake that nobody else, including Axios, dared to report it.
这个Haladat账户报道的假新闻是如此之假，以至于包括Axios在内的其他任何人都不敢报道。
[04:39] I mean, it's so blatant.
我的意思是，这太明显了。
[04:41] And this account is not even any particular like major news provider in the Middle East or in media in general.
而且这个账户甚至不是中东或总体媒体中的任何一个特别像样的大新闻提供商。
[04:49] It is actually an uh news aggregator account by itself that runs um very sketchy website, an X account with um a decent follow, although this follow like picked up lately, and a rather popular Telegram account.
它实际上是一个新闻聚合器账户，自己运营着一个非常可疑的网站，一个X账户，拥有相当多的关注者，尽管这些关注者最近才增加，还有一个相当受欢迎的Telegram账户。
[05:07] Uh what's interesting about this is that um you see this post, right, on the
呃，有趣的是，你看到了这个帖子，对吧，在
[05:12] Um, you see this post, right, on the screen?
嗯，你看到了这个帖子，对吧，在屏幕上？
[05:13] Screen? If you go check their website and their Telegram accounts or the other channels they used to distribute news, you cannot find any trace whatsoever of this headline.
屏幕？如果你去查看他们的网站和他们的电报账户或其他分发新闻的频道，你找不到任何关于这个标题的痕迹。
[05:26] And here you can see the exact timing and impact on the chart.
在这里，你可以看到图表上确切的时间和影响。
[05:33] I mean, when that headline drops, the market right away started to move and oil price crashed below $100 immediately.
我的意思是，当那个标题发布时，市场立刻开始波动，油价立即跌破100美元。
[05:44] And then when 15 minutes after the EIA report drops and the headline follows.
然后，在EIA报告发布15分钟后，标题也跟着来了。
[05:53] For example, this is incredible headline, "U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week on strong demand."
例如，这个令人难以置信的标题是，“美国原油和汽油库存上周因需求强劲而下降。”
[06:04] The market briefly caught up to then start dumping.
市场短暂地跟上，然后开始抛售。
[06:07] Again, because of course at that point,
再次，因为当然在那一点上，
[06:13] Because of course at that point, momentum trading algorithm caught up.
当然，在那一点上，动量交易算法赶上了。
[06:16] Momentum trading algorithm caught up and they had to follow suit.
动量交易算法赶上了，他们不得不如法炮制。
[06:20] They had to follow suit.
他们不得不如法炮制。
[06:22] And what I would I like to highlight in this headline is what I exactly tried to emphasize in my latest video.
我想在这篇标题中强调的是，我在我最新的视频中 exactly 强调的是。
[06:26] To highlight in this headline is what I exactly tried to emphasize in my latest video is that there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
在这篇标题中强调的是，我在我最新的视频中 exactly 强调的是，根本没有需求破坏。
[06:35] That there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
根本没有需求破坏。
[06:37] Whatsoever.
根本。
[06:39] So far everything in the market, the oil shock that is spreading and worsening day by day with every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
到目前为止，市场中的一切，石油冲击正在随着霍尔木兹地区每一天的过去而日益蔓延和恶化，但霍尔木兹并没有重新开放。
[06:47] Spreading and worsening day by day with every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
日益蔓延和恶化，随着霍尔木兹地区每一天的过去而没有重新开放。
[06:49] Every passing day in the district of Hormuz doesn't reopen.
霍尔木兹地区每一天的过去都没有重新开放。
[06:54] Hormuz doesn't reopen.
霍尔木兹没有重新开放。
[06:55] The there is no demand destruction whatsoever.
根本没有需求破坏。
[06:57] There is no demand destruction whatsoever.
根本没有需求破坏。
[06:59] Whatsoever. It remains strong because everyone from commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
根本。它仍然强劲，因为从商业到战略储备的每个人都在基于这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转的错误期望，正在非常迅速地消耗库存。
[07:01] Everyone from commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
从商业到战略储备的每个人都在基于这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转的错误期望，正在非常迅速地消耗库存。
[07:05] Commercial to strategic reserves is drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
商业到战略储备正在基于这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转的错误期望，正在非常迅速地消耗库存。
[07:07] Drawing down inventories very quickly on the false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
正在基于这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转的错误期望，正在非常迅速地消耗库存。
[07:10] The false expectations that this situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转的错误期望。
[07:12] Situation can swiftly be solved and everything goes.
这种情况可以迅速解决并且一切都会好转。
[07:16] swiftly be solved and everything goes back to what it was on the 27th of February.
可以迅速解决，一切都会回到2月27日的样子。
[07:22] While the reality, to be fair, is completely different.
但说实话，现实情况完全不同。
[07:26] And still, even if many people like to ignore it because they rather follow the very bogus price momentum in the market,
而且，即使许多人喜欢忽略它，因为他们宁愿跟随市场上非常虚假的 가격 动量，
[07:34] sooner or later, perhaps very soon because otherwise we wouldn't be here discussing about this,
迟早，也许很快，因为否则我们不会在这里讨论这个问题，
[07:42] a brick wall will be hit and the reality will not be possible to ignore any longer because you will go to the gas station and you know what?
将撞上一堵砖墙，现实将不再可能被忽视，因为你会去加油站，你知道吗？
[07:53] The price is going to be much higher and perhaps even if you're able to pay that price, there's not going to be enough gasoline in the tanks.
价格会高得多，也许即使你能支付那个价格，油箱里也没有足够的汽油了。
[08:05] Here was the market reaction.
这就是市场反应。
[08:08] As you can see, incredibly bullish.
正如你所见，令人难以置信的看涨。
[08:10] Oil started to tank.
石油开始暴跌。
[08:11] The stocks jumped immediately and the US Treasury yields
股票立即上涨，美国国债收益率
[08:20] And the US Treasury yields tanked of 10 basis points as a result.
因此，美国国债收益率因此下跌了10个基点。
[08:25] Tanked of 10 basis points as a result.
因此下跌了10个基点。
[08:28] Even if towards the end of the day, like things started to converge, albeit markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
即使在一天快结束的时候，事情开始趋同，尽管市场在这一天以非常积极的基调收盘。
[08:32] Things started to converge, albeit markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
事情开始趋同，尽管市场在这一天以非常积极的基调收盘。
[08:37] Markets closed on a very positive tone for the day.
市场在这一天以非常积极的基调收盘。
[08:38] For the day.
这一天。
[08:42] Even after several hours, it was pretty clear that this was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
即使过了几个小时，也很清楚这完全是假的，尽管唐纳德·特朗普本人说，如果他们不按他所说的去做，他并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性。
[08:44] Clear that this was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
清楚这完全是假的，尽管唐纳德·特朗普本人说，如果他们不按他所说的去做，他并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性。
[08:46] This was completely fake and even though Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
这完全是假的，尽管唐纳德·特朗普本人说，如果他们不按他所说的去做，他并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性。
[08:49] Donald Trump himself said that he doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
唐纳德·特朗普本人说，如果他们不按他所说的去做，他并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性。
[08:50] He doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
他并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性，如果他们不按他所说的去做。
[08:54] Doesn't rule out the option of striking Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
并不排除再次打击伊朗的可能性，如果他们不按他所说的去做。
[08:58] Iran again at all if they don't, as he said, decide to be smart.
再次打击伊朗，如果他们不按他所说的去做。
[08:59] Said, decide to be smart.
说，决定变得聪明。
[09:02] Decide to be smart.
决定变得聪明。
[09:04] Smart.
聪明。
[09:06] However, there was one exception in the market overall and this exception, incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
然而，总体市场有一个例外，这个例外，令人难以置信的是，是日元。
[09:08] Market overall and this exception, incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
总体市场和这个例外，令人难以置信的是，是日元。
[09:12] Incredibly, was the Japanese yen.
令人难以置信的是，是日元。
[09:15] As you can see in front of you, the Japanese yen was the only asset in financial markets that didn't
正如你们在面前看到的，日元是金融市场中唯一没有
[09:18] Yen was the only asset in financial markets that didn't
日元是金融市场中唯一没有
[09:21] asset in financial markets that didn't benefit whatsoever from the snap in price momentum that turned from bearish to bullish even if it didn't make any sense whatsoever and clashed greatly with the reality.
金融市场中有一项资产，尽管它与现实大相径庭，甚至毫无道理，但它从看跌转为看涨的价格势头急剧变化中丝毫没有受益。
[09:43] And here is is my view about this.
这是我对这个问题的看法。
[09:45] The view is that the situation in Japan is so bad that even if this doesn't work any longer whatsoever to give some respite to the financial stress the country is experiencing, then we need to keep our eyes very open because you know, the government can intervene again, but clearly the market is not swallowing any positive, you know, narrative of course, fabricated and any sort of
我的看法是，日本的局势非常糟糕，即使这不再能为该国正在经历的金融压力提供任何缓解，我们也需要保持高度警惕，因为你知道，政府可能会再次干预，但显然市场并不接受任何积极的、你知道的、当然是捏造的叙事，以及任何形式的
[10:22] Of course, fabricated and any sort of nonsense that came out.
当然，捏造的以及任何从那个角落冒出来的胡言乱语。
[10:24] Nonsense that came out from that corner of the globe in in order to boost.
从那个角落冒出来的胡言乱语，为了提升。
[10:28] In order to boost, you know, their standing in the market.
为了提升，你知道，他们在市场上的地位。
[10:34] You know, their standing in the market and try to ease a situation that is worsening and worse in Japan.
你知道，他们在市场上的地位，并试图缓解在日本日益恶化和更糟的局面。
[10:40] Because let's not forget besides their massive and mounting financial trouble in Japan, they're also a country that imports the vast majority of its oil and oil derivatives as it's very.
因为我们不要忘记，除了他们在日本面临巨额且不断增加的财政困难之外，他们还是一个进口其绝大部分石油和石油衍生物的国家，因为这非常。
[10:57] It's very very um on the forefront of the damages when the oil supply shock is going to hit the hardest.
它非常非常，嗯，当石油供应冲击将最严重地打击时，它将首当其冲受到损害。
[11:16] You are to conclude.
你将得出结论。
[11:18] You are to conclude. Thanks a lot for listening to my update today, for supporting me on X, on
你将得出结论。非常感谢你今天收听我的更新，感谢你在X上支持我，在
[11:23] Today, for supporting me on X, on Instagram, and for reading my research on justadario.com.
今天，感谢您在X、Instagram上支持我，并阅读我在justadario.com上的研究。
[11:27] In particular, today I just published an article where I reviewed the latest um Nvidia earnings that came after the bell.
特别是，今天我刚发表了一篇文章，回顾了收盘后最新的英伟达财报。
[11:40] Um and I suggest you to take a take a look at it.
我建议您看一下。
[11:43] I decided uh not to share that update here on YouTube because um you know, it's very technical and uh perhaps it might just be appealing only to um very few um of you.
我决定在这里的YouTube上不分享那个更新，因为，你知道，它非常技术性，也许只会吸引你们中很少一部分人。
[11:58] So, I became mindful of that.
所以，我意识到了这一点。
[12:02] Thanks a lot again and uh have a nice day.
再次非常感谢，祝您有美好的一天。
