# Why The Dumbest Investors Win (it's not why you think)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3FQcd91MIs
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] Meet Dave.
  认识一下戴夫。

[00:02] Dave's been trading for two years, which in Wall Street years is the equivalent of being a toddler who just discovered FIRE.
  戴夫已经交易了两年，在华尔街的年头里，这相当于一个刚发现火的蹒跚学步的孩子。

[00:11] His portfolio is up 13% year-to date.
  他的投资组合今年迄今为止上涨了13%。

[00:13] He just hit it big on a crypto memecoin, and his confidence is at an all-time high.
  他刚刚在一种加密货币模因币上大赚了一笔，他的信心达到了历史最高点。

[00:19] Dave's hobbies include watching the Wolf of Wall Street, telling girls at the bar about emerging biotech companies, and zinning.
  戴夫的爱好包括看《华尔街之狼》，在酒吧里告诉女孩们关于新兴生物技术公司的事情，以及进行“zining”。

[00:25] It's safe to say Dave has what it takes to become a full-time trader.
  可以肯定地说，戴夫具备成为一名全职交易员的条件。

[00:28] So Dave does what any rational person would do.
  所以戴夫做了任何理性的人都会做的事。

[00:33] He calls his broker, lies about his net worth, and gets approved for options trading.
  他打电话给他的经纪人，谎报他的净资产，并获得了期权交易的批准。

[00:36] Fast forward 3 months, and Dave is now leveraged to the max on out of the money Tesla calls.
  快进3个月，戴夫现在已经用尽了资金购买价外特斯拉看涨期权。

[00:41] His strategy, buy high, sell higher.
  他的策略是，高买，更高卖。

[00:44] His risk management, prayer, his wife's concern.
  他的风险管理是祈祷，以及他妻子的担忧。

[00:49] Why is $13,000 missing from our savings account?
  为什么我们储蓄账户里少了13000美元？

[00:50] Fast forward three more months and the Federal Reserve decides to hike rates.
  再快进三个月，美联储决定提高利率。

[00:54] Dave's portfolio is now down 67% and his wife's new favorite hobby is
  戴夫的投资组合现在下跌了67%，他妻子的新爱好是

[01:02] And his wife's new favorite hobby is googling how to divorce a man who calls himself a market wizard.
  他妻子的新爱好是搜索如何与一位自称市场巫师的男人离婚。

[01:04] This brings us to the question for the video today.
  这引出了我们今天视频的问题。

[01:06] Why do the dumbest investors win?
  为什么最愚蠢的投资者会赢？

[01:08] The Dunning Kruger effect is the financial markets version of Darwinism.
  邓宁-克鲁格效应是金融市场的达尔文主义版本。

[01:10] It explains why dumb people think they're Warren Buffett, why smart people think they're dumb, and why Dave believes market manipulation is why his calls expired worthless.
  它解释了为什么愚蠢的人认为自己是沃伦·巴菲特，为什么聪明的人认为自己很愚蠢，以及为什么戴夫认为市场操纵是他那些期权到期一文不值的 वायू。

[01:22] Since 2020, you could have invested in pretty much any stock and you would have made money.
  自2020年以来，你几乎可以投资任何股票，并且都会赚钱。

[01:29] And if you were on the left side of the Dunning Krueger curve, where Dave was, you would have significantly outperformed the S and P.
  如果你处于邓宁-克鲁格曲线的左侧，就像戴夫那样，你的表现将远远超过标普。

[01:38] Traditional value investors think investing is about fundamentals or fair valuations.
  传统的价值投资者认为投资是关于基本面或公允估值的。

[01:43] But the investors who have outperformed over recent years by companies at 650 times earnings ride trends that make less sense than pineapple on pizza and pump their bags to anyone with a pulse.
  但在过去几年里，那些以650倍市盈率跑赢公司的投资者，他们追逐的趋势比披萨上的菠萝还要不合逻辑，并且向任何有脉搏的人推销他们的股票。

[01:55] In fact, I believe it was Warren Buffett that once said, "Why buy Apple when you can buy Fartcoin?"
  事实上，我相信是沃伦·巴菲特曾说过：“为什么要在能买到Fartcoin的时候买苹果呢？”

[01:59] And if you zoom out
  如果你放大来看

[02:02] can buy Fartcoin?
  能买到 Fartcoin 吗？

[02:02] And if you zoom out even further, it gets more evident.
  如果我们拉远来看，会更加明显。

[02:04] even further, it gets more evident.
  更加明显。

[02:06] We've been in the greatest bull market in history.
  我们经历了历史上最伟大的牛市。

[02:11] 17 years, 715% returns.
  17年，715%的回报。

[02:11] The S&P's basically been on a bender since 2009.
  标普指数基本上自2009年以来一直处于疯狂上涨状态。

[02:17] So over the past 17 years, anything you've invested in would likely have generated a positive return.
  所以，在过去的17年里，你投资的任何东西很可能都会产生正回报。

[02:21] And because of this, investment strategies characterized by high beta and irrational approaches have outperformed and generated alpha.
  因此，高贝塔和非理性策略的投资策略表现优异并产生了超额收益。

[02:29] Although it hasn't happened yet, like all great benders, it must come to an end eventually.
  虽然还没有发生，但就像所有的疯狂上涨一样，它最终必须结束。

[02:34] But when is this end coming and how can you prepare for it?
  但是，这个结局何时到来，你又该如何准备？

[02:36] Well, there's two ways.
  嗯，有两种方法。

[02:39] The first sit on cash like Buffett has been doing.
  第一种是像巴菲特那样持有现金。

[02:45] But that's boring and you're not looking to compound at the risk-free rate.
  但这很无聊，而且你不想在无风险利率下复利。

[02:49] So that brings us to our second option.
  所以，这就引出了我们的第二种选择。

[02:52] Continue to go allin and then blame others when the markets inevitably reverse.
  继续孤注一掷，然后在市场不可避免地逆转时指责他人。

[02:56] You can blame Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, or even market makers.
  你可以责怪杰罗姆·鲍威尔、唐纳德·特朗普，甚至是做市商。

[03:00] But you got to blame someone because taking
  但你必须责怪某人，因为承担

[03:02] you got to blame someone because taking losses on the chin isn't how investing works.
  你必须责怪某人，因为默默承受损失并不是投资的方式。

[03:06] All this brings us to the answer to the question of today's video.
  这一切引出了我们今天视频问题的答案。

[03:09] Why do the dumbest investors win?
  为什么最愚蠢的投资者会赢？

[03:11] And the answer is simple.
  答案很简单。

[03:13] Because retail investors love volatile, high beta stocks.
  因为散户投资者喜欢波动性高、贝塔系数高的股票。

[03:18] Let's get a little more technical real quick.
  让我们快速地深入技术层面一点。

[03:20] What is beta and why does it matter?
  什么是贝塔系数，它为什么重要？

[03:22] Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock when compared to the market as a whole.
  贝塔系数是衡量股票相对于整体市场波动性的指标。

[03:27] Here's a real example of beta in play.
  这里有一个实际的贝塔系数应用的例子。

[03:30] Let's say Amazon has a beta of 1.33.
  假设亚马逊的贝塔系数为 1.33。

[03:33] This is essentially saying Amazon is 33% more volatile than the overall market.
  这基本上意味着亚马逊比整体市场波动性高 33%。

[03:39] So if the markets rise 2%, Amazon is expected to rise 2.66%.
  所以，如果市场上涨 2%，亚马逊预计将上涨 2.66%。

[03:45] And then if the markets fall 2%, Amazon is expected to fall 2.66%.
  然后，如果市场下跌 2%，亚马逊预计将下跌 2.66%。

[03:50] So why does this matter?
  那么，这为什么重要呢？

[03:52] Because when the market is up, a high beta portfolio, aka a retail investor portfolio, will outperform versus the market.
  因为当市场上涨时，高贝塔系数的投资组合，也就是散户投资者的投资组合，将跑赢大盘。

[03:59] And now you got Dave, who's looking to book a
  现在你有了戴夫，他正打算预订一个

[04:03] You got Dave, who's looking to book a table at Nou to celebrate his genius.
  你找到了戴夫，他想在 Nou 预订一张桌子来庆祝他的天才。

[04:06] Table at Nou to celebrate his genius.
  在 Nou 预订一张桌子来庆祝他的天才。

[04:06] But when the market is down, a high beta portfolio is feeling the effects of gravity.
  但当市场低迷时，高贝塔的投资组合正在感受到引力的影响。

[04:11] And now Dave is looking to see if Payway is hiring.
  现在戴夫想看看 Payway 是否在招聘。

[04:13] In a bull market, Dave's high beta portfolio makes him the next George Soros.
  在牛市中，戴夫的高贝塔投资组合使他成为下一个乔治·索罗斯。

[04:18] And in a bare market, Dave's high beta portfolio makes him the next trending post on Wall Street Bets.
  而在熊市中，戴夫的高贝塔投资组合使他成为华尔街赌徒上最热门的下一个帖子。

[04:26] So, next time your friend brags about their 10bagger memecoin, just remember everyone's a genius in a bull market.
  所以，下次你的朋友吹嘘他们中了 10 倍的模因币时，请记住，在牛市中每个人都是天才。