# The Simple Trading Setup That Made Lance Breitstein Millions $$$

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R215f4fj7V8
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] So, this was a seven-figure day for me.
  所以，对我来说，这是赚了七位数的一天。

[00:01] Both with the trend on the news, then the counter-trend.
  既顺应了新闻上的趋势，又抓住了逆势。

[00:04] It becomes more powerful when these trends are aligning on multiple time frames.
  当这些趋势在多个时间框架上一致时，它会变得更加强大。

[00:08] I'll never be long if a stock is steadily holding below VWAP unless it capitulates.
  除非股票投降，否则我绝不会在它持续低于VWAP时做多。

[00:11] Cuz what happens is when everyone's being liquidated, when everyone's scared, that leaves everything so skewed the other way.
  因为当所有人都在被清算、所有人都害怕时，一切都会严重偏向另一边。

[00:17] This is an A setup for this, this is a B setup, this is a C setup.
  这是A类设置，这是B类设置，这是C类设置。

[00:21] Then I'd have set risk amounts.
  然后我会设定风险金额。

[00:23] This is one of those stair-stepping as beautiful patterns as you can imagine.
  这是你能想象到的最漂亮的阶梯式形态之一。

[00:26] To build this awareness and this consciousness, you need to be drilling yourself in real time.
  要培养这种意识和觉悟，你需要实时训练自己。

[00:31] That's so often what I look for is my number one probably favorite thing to signify an end of a trend.
  这通常是我寻找的、可能是我最喜欢用来标志趋势结束的第一要素。

[00:35] So, that's how you avoid a rip, that's how you stay with a winner, and that stuff adds up big time.
  所以，这就是你如何避免被套、如何持有赢家，这些积累起来效果显著。

[00:45] All right, welcome back everybody.
  好了，欢迎大家回来。

[00:47] It's my honor to introduce our next speaker, Lance Breitstein.
  我很荣幸介绍下一位演讲者，兰斯·布雷特斯坦。

[00:52] He is an X-Trillium top trader.
  他是X-Trillium的顶级交易员。

[00:54] He's also an advisor over at SMB Capital, and we're really excited to have him here today uh talking about more than just friends, a trend love story, uh introducing a new perspective.
  他也是SMB资本的顾问，我们非常高兴今天他能来到这里，谈论不仅仅是朋友、一个趋势爱情故事，并介绍一个新的视角。

[01:02] Uh, to our conference.
  呃，到我们的会议了。

[01:03] So, Lance, uh, thank you so much for taking the time.
  那么，Lance，呃，非常感谢你抽出时间。

[01:05] And uh, really looking forward to this one.
  呃，真的很期待这次。

[01:07] Thank you, Rich.
  谢谢你，Rich。

[01:09] Very happy to be here for my first Tradenet presentation.
  很高兴能在这里进行我的第一次Tradenet演讲。

[01:12] I think at the least I should probably get at least one star for like the witty, creative uh presentation title.
  我想至少我应该因为那个机智、有创意的呃演讲标题而得到一颗星。

[01:18] For sure.
  当然。

[01:18] For sure.
  当然。

[01:20] As Rich said, uh Lance Breitstein, you can follow me on Twitter at the one Lance B where I drop a lot of fire knowledge.
  正如Rich所说，呃，Lance Breitstein，你可以在Twitter上关注我，账号是the one Lance B，我在那里分享很多精彩的知识。

[01:27] And uh, because I come from the prop side, uh of course it comes with compliance and legalese.
  呃，因为我来自自营交易方面，呃，当然这伴随着合规和法律术语。

[01:32] Uh, a lot of disclaimers essentially, uh you know, my presentation might cause dizziness, headache, uh loss of capital, loss of everything, uh you know, everything you could ever blame could happen.
  呃，基本上很多免责声明，呃，你知道，我的演讲可能导致头晕、头痛、呃资本损失、一切损失，呃，你知道，你能责怪的一切都可能发生。

[01:43] But hopefully I make it all worthwhile, but this does entail risk and everything else.
  但希望我能让它都值得，但这确实涉及风险和其他一切。

[01:48] Uh, more disclaimers, and nevertheless we will jump into this.
  呃，更多免责声明，尽管如此，我们将开始这个。

[01:53] So, here's what we're going to cover today.
  那么，这就是我们今天要讲的内容。

[01:55] I'm going to share with you why you all need to live and breathe and trade with the trend.
  我将与你们分享为什么你们都需要与趋势共存、呼吸和交易。

[02:00] But in order to do that,
  但为了做到这一点，

[02:02] We're going to define trends themselves at a very basic level.
  我们将在非常基础的层面上定义趋势本身。

[02:06] We're probably going to analyze them deeper than you have ever analyzed them before.
  我们可能会比你们以往任何时候都更深入地分析它们。

[02:10] And once we define them, we're then going to talk about how you can build trading rules around them, and how those trading rules can help you capture big moves or also stay out of trouble.
  一旦我们定义了它们，我们将接着讨论如何围绕它们构建交易规则，以及这些交易规则如何帮助您抓住大行情或避免麻烦。

[02:20] And then we're going to analyze what causes trends to begin or end.
  然后我们将分析是什么导致了趋势的开始或结束。

[02:25] All of this together is going to help in a very practical application of how to use this knowledge and implement it into your trading.
  所有这些将共同帮助您非常实际地应用这些知识，并将其落实到您的交易中。

[02:33] Every single presentation I do, I want to make it as actionable as possible so that come Monday, uh you all have something that you can do to elevate your trading game.
  我做的每一次演讲，我都希望让它尽可能具有可操作性，这样到了周一，呃，你们大家都有可以做的事情来提升你们的交易水平。

[02:43] So, let me help you.
  那么，让我来帮助你们。

[02:45] I understand your style of trading.
  我理解你们的交易风格。

[02:47] I understand what you guys are looking to achieve through this.
  我理解你们希望通过这个实现什么。

[02:51] We all want success in the markets.
  我们都想在市场中取得成功。

[02:53] And some of you might be newer, some of you might have already found some level of success, but there's always a step higher, and part of trading and part of growth is always getting there.
  你们中有些人可能比较新手，有些人可能已经取得了一定程度的成功，但总有一个更高的台阶，而交易和成长的一部分就是不断达到那个目标。

[03:02] Whether you're frustrated or whether you're feeling good, we're still going to find room to improve.
  无论你是感到沮丧还是心情不错，我们仍然会找到改进的空间。

[03:09] And you know, no matter how good you get, trading is never easy.
  而且你知道，无论你变得多好，交易从来都不容易。

[03:14] It's this never-ending journey, but hopefully I'm going to push you forward one extra step.
  这是一场永无止境的旅程，但希望我能推你向前多走一步。

[03:18] So, here's how it started.
  那么，事情就是这样开始的。

[03:21] Nothing short of swimming upstream.
  简直就像逆流而上。

[03:23] I started my career in 2011 at Trillium Trading, and despite uh despite where I am now speaking to you all, it was not an easy start.
  我于2011年在Trillium Trading开始了我的职业生涯，尽管呃尽管我现在站在这里对你们所有人讲话，但起步并不容易。

[03:33] Uh I was one of the slower learners in my trading class.
  呃，我是交易班里学得较慢的人之一。

[03:35] Uh all evidence pointed that I was likely going to wash out.
  呃，所有证据都表明我很可能被淘汰。

[03:40] Uh despite having one of the best trainers and and uh probably one of the best day traders on the street at the time, I was not gaining any ground.
  呃，尽管拥有一位最好的培训师，以及呃当时华尔街可能最好的日内交易员之一，我仍然没有任何进展。

[03:51] I was interviewing for other jobs, and I was losing faith and hope on myself.
  我在面试其他工作，并且对自己失去了信心和希望。

[03:56] And this was even having a pro trader kind of feed me some of his strategies.
  而且这还是在一位专业交易员把他的策略传授给我的情况下。

[04:00] I had an environment for success.
  我拥有一个有利于成功的环境。

[04:02] I had this incredible technology.
  我拥有这项不可思议的技术。

[04:04] But really what would happen is even though I would have some decent trades,
  但实际上会发生的是，即使我会有一些不错的交易，

[04:08] I would always have these big losses.
  我也总是会有这些巨大的亏损。

[04:10] And I kept improving, I kept improving,
  而我不断进步，不断进步，

[04:13] And this was really a trait even of my trainer.
  这其实也是我导师的一个特质。

[04:18] Um having some of these really epic wins just because some of what we did had so much edge,
  嗯，取得一些真正史诗级的胜利，仅仅是因为我们做的某些事情有如此大的优势，

[04:23] But a lot of it would just be um sent into the ether,
  但其中很多都只是嗯，化为乌有，

[04:26] Just millions of dollars burned in in dumb places.
  只是数百万美元白白烧在了愚蠢的地方。

[04:30] And when I started to analyze that and and really go deep, at that point in my career I was starting to really excel.
  当我开始分析这一点并真正深入时，在我职业生涯的那个阶段，我开始真正脱颖而出。

[04:37] Um I was even approaching the top 10 at that time.
  嗯，我当时甚至接近前十名。

[04:39] But what what would really keep me out of kind of the top of the leaderboard was every year I would just have millions of dollars in in kind of big losses,
  但真正让我无法登上排行榜顶端的，是每年我都会有数百万美元的大额亏损，

[04:47] And nobody else in the firm was kind of really doing that.
  而公司里其他人并没有真正这样做。

[04:50] And it's like, wait a second, man.
  然后就像，等等，老兄。

[04:52] It's like this isn't so normal.
  这好像不太正常。

[04:55] Like if I can just remove — obviously losses are a part of trading,
  比如如果我能消除——显然亏损是交易的一部分，

[04:57] But if I can just avoid some of these bigger ones, that's going to have such a disproportionate effect on my trading.
  但如果我能避免其中一些更大的亏损，那将对我的交易产生如此不成比例的影响。

[05:03] And so, I did this very big deep dive on
  于是，我对此进行了非常深入的探究

[05:05] My whole career at that point.
  我整个职业生涯在那个时刻。

[05:08] And one thing became abundantly clear is that on my best trades, my best trades immediately went in my favor, and my absolute worst trades and biggest losses, those were all trades where I was fighting the trend, and they essentially never ever went to my favor.
  有一件事变得非常清楚，那就是在我最好的交易中，我的最佳交易立即对我有利，而我绝对最差的交易和最大的亏损，都是那些我逆势操作的交易，它们基本上从未对我有利。

[05:25] And it sounds paradoxical and almost like it's hindsight, but it's not, right?
  这听起来矛盾，几乎像是事后诸葛亮，但并非如此，对吧？

[05:30] There's trades that immediately work, and there's trades that don't, and so often that's because we're fighting the trend.
  有些交易立即见效，有些则不然，而这往往是因为我们在逆势操作。

[05:35] And as I've now worked with probably hundreds of other traders, um seven-figure traders, eight-figure traders, beginners, whatever, every experience level, it's such a commonality that our best trades tend to work in our favor.
  而且，由于我现在可能已经与数百名其他交易员合作过，嗯，七位数交易员、八位数交易员、初学者，无论什么，每个经验水平，我们的最佳交易往往对我们有利，这是一个如此普遍的共性。

[05:46] Not all of them, but definitely most.
  并非全部，但绝对是大多数。

[05:50] And it's a heuristic that we can start to then um kind of work with.
  这是一个我们可以开始嗯，某种程度上利用的启发式方法。

[05:53] So, how did this end for me?
  那么，这对我来说结局如何？

[05:55] Nothing short of world domination.
  简直是世界统治。

[05:58] Uh what I really wanted to do today was kind of share some of uh the P&L stats.
  呃，我今天真正想做的是分享一些呃损益统计数据。

[06:02] Uh compliance ended up mixing that, but I did end up sending uh P&L screenshots to
  呃，合规部门最终打乱了这一点，但我确实最终发送了呃损益截图给

[06:07] Richard.
  理查德。

[06:08] Uh, you know, you get so many just haters on Twitter, "Oh, Lance is a scammer," which I always laugh at cuz I have no self-sold product.
  呃，你知道，你在推特上会遇到很多喷子，说“哦，兰斯是个骗子”，我总是一笑置之，因为我根本没有自己销售的产品。

[06:17] "Oh, you know, Lance blew up," or "Lance that."
  “哦，你知道，兰斯爆红了，”或者“兰斯那样。”

[06:19] Nope, I just run a nonprofit uh out of try to give back to the world.
  不，我只是经营一个非营利组织，试图回馈世界。

[06:23] I promise you uh you know, Rich has seen some awesome eight-figure P&L, and these trophies I like to think speak to themselves.
  我向你保证，呃，你知道，Rich见过一些很棒的八位数损益表，而这些奖杯，我认为它们不言自明。

[06:31] So, Rich, can you verify to the public that I am uh who I say I am?
  那么，Rich，你能向公众证实我就是我所说的那个人吗？

[06:33] Yeah, I can I can attest to what I saw, and uh yeah, I can I can attest to that for sure.
  是的，我可以，我可以证明我所看到的，呃，是的，我可以，我肯定可以证明这一点。

[06:38] I also like to think uh you know, while people probably can buy their own trophies, it would be a that's a very sad day if I ended up taking trophies.
  我也喜欢这样想，呃，你知道，虽然人们可能可以自己买奖杯，但如果我最终去拿奖杯，那将是非常可悲的一天。

[06:46] And so, what you see here is I had uh pretty much the highest annual trading P&L ever in Trillium's history.
  所以，你在这里看到的是，我拥有Trillium历史上最高的年度交易损益。

[06:52] They're one of the oldest firms on the street, and you see a lot of trader of the year trophies and top 10 trophies.
  他们是华尔街最古老的公司之一，你会看到很多年度最佳交易员奖杯和前十名奖杯。

[06:58] So, uh you know, really I left on top, and I did it so I can share some of this knowledge and help you all get better, and that's what really kind of excites me these days.
  所以，呃，你知道，我真的在巅峰时离开，我这样做是为了分享一些知识，帮助你们所有人变得更好，这就是这些天真正让我兴奋的事情。

[07:05] So, let's do it.
  那么，让我们开始吧。

[07:08] The trend is your friend, one of the most famous sayings in trading, and probably uh my favorite one ever, honestly.
  趋势是你的朋友，这是交易中最著名的格言之一，而且可能是我有史以来最喜欢的一句，说实话。

[07:17] And it's attributed to Jesse Livermore, uh famously known for Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
  这句话归功于杰西·利弗莫尔，他以《股票作手回忆录》而闻名。

[07:25] And so, let's dive into this.
  那么，让我们深入探讨一下。

[07:26] Like the beauty of a trend is your friend is it's a principle that I've really verified through my own experience.
  就像“趋势是你的朋友”的美妙之处在于，这是一个我通过自身经验真正验证过的原则。

[07:32] So many clichés in trading are just total nonsense.
  交易中的许多陈词滥调完全是胡说八道。

[07:34] But in my own experience, none held up stronger than that the trend is your friend.
  但根据我自己的经验，没有哪一条比“趋势是你的朋友”更站得住脚。

[07:39] In fact, the more and more experience I gained, the more I sought to live true to this mantra.
  事实上，我获得的经验越多，就越努力践行这句箴言。

[07:44] When I was trying to elevate to the really big leagues, it's really the one conclusion that I came to.
  当我试图晋升到真正的顶级行列时，这确实是我得出的唯一结论。

[07:51] And I've spent so many years where my sole goal for that year might be to live with the trend, to never fight it, to always consciously ask myself, am I with the trend or am I fighting it?
  我花了很多年，每年唯一的目标可能就是顺应趋势，绝不与之对抗，总是有意识地自问：我是顺应趋势还是在对抗它？

[08:03] And so many of these trades, it held true to that heuristic.
  而这么多交易中，它都符合这个启发式原则。

[08:06] The best ones went to my favor, then the millions of dollars were
  最好的那些交易对我有利，然后数百万美元就

[08:08] Incinerated when I was fighting it.
  在我与它搏斗时被焚毁了。

[08:11] So, I really wanted to live and breathe, spent every moment of my trading.
  所以，我真的很想活下去，呼吸，把每一刻都花在交易上。

[08:15] And really that study is what transformed me to really reach number one.
  而真正是那项研究改变了我，让我真正达到了第一。

[08:19] And knowing what you all um kind of do in your style of trading, it became clear to me this was the most value I could offer and give you actionable insights.
  了解到你们大家嗯在交易风格上的做法，我清楚地意识到这是我能提供的最有价值的东西，并给你们可操作的见解。

[08:30] Oops.
  哎呀。

[08:30] Uh-oh.
  哦哦。

[08:30] We're falling apart here.
  我们这里要散架了。

[08:33] So, why live with the trend?
  那么，为什么要顺应趋势呢？

[08:34] I think part of the beauty of living with the trend is when you're trading with the trend, not only does it increase your win rate because you're no longer fighting and you've got all these market participants on your side, but being with the trend really increases your reward.
  我认为顺应趋势的美妙之处在于，当你顺势交易时，不仅因为不再对抗并且有所有市场参与者站在你这边而提高了胜率，而且顺应趋势确实增加了你的回报。

[08:50] Like we were hearing in that prior presentation with Chris, so many times you can end up capturing some really surprising epic epic moves when that trend is going in your favor.
  就像我们在之前克里斯的那场演讲中听到的那样，很多时候当趋势对你有利时，你最终能捕捉到一些非常令人惊讶的史诗级行情。

[09:00] In fact, you're opening yourself up to all that positive asymmetric skew that traders traditionally love.
  事实上，你让自己敞开了迎接交易者传统上喜爱的所有正偏态分布。

[09:06] The other beauty is that trading with the trend tends to minimize the
  另一个美妙之处在于，顺势交易往往能最小化

[09:10] Drawdowns and the heat you need to take on a position.
  回撤以及你在持仓时需要承受的压力。

[09:13] No longer do you need to really average down positions against you.
  你不再需要真正地对不利于你的仓位进行平均加仓。

[09:17] No longer do you need to trade with a stop.
  你不再需要带着止损进行交易。

[09:20] So often when you're really going with that trend, just by the fact that you were kind of riding that wave, even when trades fail, your losses will be less than they would be otherwise.
  很多时候，当你真正顺应那个趋势时，仅仅因为你是在顺势而为，即使交易失败，你的损失也会比原本的情况要小。

[09:31] And I know what you're thinking.
  我知道你在想什么。

[09:33] Can everything even be structured with the trend?
  难道所有交易都能按照趋势来构建吗？

[09:34] And I'm going to show you how the answer is yes.
  我将向你展示答案是肯定的。

[09:37] Even mean reversion trades and trades that I like to call with the counter-trend can be structured to be with the trend as well.
  即使是均值回归交易，以及我称之为逆势的交易，也可以被构建成顺势交易。

[09:43] And that's one of the things that really really helped me cuz so much of what I did was mean reversion.
  这是真正对我帮助很大的事情之一，因为我过去做的很多交易都是均值回归。

[09:48] So, let's start from scratch.
  那么，让我们从头开始。

[09:51] What even is a trend?
  到底什么是趋势？

[09:53] Have you taken the time to ask yourself this?
  你是否花时间问过自己这个问题？

[09:56] How do we define it?
  我们如何定义它？

[09:59] How do you personally define it?
  你个人如何定义它？

[10:01] It's so important to ask that question because without doing that, you then can't go to the next step of what the implications are to your trading.
  提出这个问题非常重要，因为如果不这样做，你就无法进入下一步，即了解这对你的交易意味着什么。

[10:06] So, let's keep it simple.
  所以，让我们保持简单。

[10:08] Trending stocks, what I would call being
  趋势股，我称之为处于

[10:10] In an uptrend, are moving in a generally upward direction encountering new prices.
  在上升趋势中，价格通常向上移动并触及新高。

[10:17] A downtrend would generally be in a downward direction.
  下降趋势通常是指价格向下移动。

[10:19] Another way to think about that is just going back to basic math and algebra, kind of just the slope of the line.
  另一种理解方式是回到基础数学和代数，基本上就是线的斜率。

[10:26] So, if something is sloping upwards, regardless of what it's doing, generally it's in an uptrend, opposite for the downtrend.
  所以，如果某物向上倾斜，无论它在做什么，通常都处于上升趋势，下降趋势则相反。

[10:34] So, this is in contrast to what I would define as range bound or consolidating stocks.
  因此，这与我所定义的区间震荡或盘整股票形成对比。

[10:37] Those are staying within a band of past prices, often have a slope of zero, and really those two groups, just doing that simple categorization, can have really big implications for how you treat and trade these.
  这些股票停留在过去价格的区间内，斜率通常为零，而仅仅通过这种简单的分类，这两个群体就能对你如何处理和交易它们产生重大影响。

[10:51] I see so many traders turn, turn, turn away and take so many paper cuts when stocks are consolidating or range bound, rather than just waiting for the true break when they then begin to trend.
  我看到很多交易者在股票盘整或区间震荡时转身离开，遭受许多小亏损，而不是等待真正的突破，然后开始趋势。

[11:02] So, let's go one step further than that general uptrend definition.
  那么，让我们比那个一般的上升趋势定义更进一步。

[11:07] So, I really like to look for anything
  所以，我真的很喜欢寻找任何东西

[11:10] That's upward sloping, and we're going to start to add more nuance.
  这是向上倾斜的，我们将开始增加更多细节。

[11:13] But this spider chart, this it's a 10-year chart, and as you can see, like we have some really deep um pullbacks, right?
  但这个蜘蛛图，这是一个10年图表，正如你所见，我们有一些非常深的回调，对吧？

[11:20] Like especially during COVID here, but nevertheless, our slope, if you were to graph this, is clearly positive.
  比如尤其是在新冠疫情期间，但尽管如此，我们的斜率，如果你绘制图表，显然是正的。

[11:28] So, another way, or a further way, I guess, of defining trend is making higher highs and higher lows.
  所以，另一种方式，或者说更进一步的方式，我猜，定义趋势就是创造更高的高点和更高的低点。

[11:36] So, what does that look like?
  那么，那看起来是什么样子？

[11:38] And so, the way I view stocks, like this Micron chart from February of this year to present, I drew these yellow lines so you could all see how I kind of view these stocks in legs, and we have one initial leg higher, we have a lower high on that pullback, we kind of retest those highs, we have another lower high, retest the highs, lower high, retest the highs, lower high, and boom, we break out.
  因此，我看待股票的方式，比如这张美光图表从今年二月到现在，我画了这些黄线，这样你们都能看到我如何大致将这些股票视为分段走势，我们有一个初始的上涨段，在那次回调中有一个较低的高点，我们大致重新测试了那些高点，我们又有一个较低的高点，重新测试高点，较低高点，重新测试高点，较低高点，然后砰，我们突破了。

[12:02] And so, this subsequent pattern is something that I would say is not just in an uptrend, but it's in an uptrend making higher highs and higher higher lows.
  因此，这个后续模式，我会说它不仅仅是处于上升趋势，而是处于一个创造更高高点和更高低点的上升趋势中。

[12:10] Which is one of the nicest patterns you can really see.
  这是你能真正看到的最好的模式之一。

[12:14] This is another example, Nvidia.
  这是另一个例子，英伟达。

[12:16] It's funny, I clipped this chart prior to their earnings release, but what do you know, that pattern kind of really continued.
  有趣的是，我在他们发布财报之前截取了这张图表，但你知道吗，那种模式确实持续了下去。

[12:23] And it's so funny, I knew people that were shorting the stock prior to those earnings, and it's one of those things where it's like at the end of this presentation, some of those people, they should be asking themselves why.
  而且非常有趣，我认识一些在那次财报前做空这只股票的人，就像在本次演示结束时，那些人中的一些应该问问自己为什么。

[12:35] Because what we had here was a stock that was going up, very shallow pullback, another leg higher, beautiful consolidation, right?
  因为我们这里看到的是一只上涨的股票，回调非常浅，又一轮上涨，漂亮的盘整，对吧？

[12:42] Like the stock went from 140 to 280.
  就像这只股票从140涨到了280。

[12:44] That's a double in a matter of a couple months, and it's not pulling back a dime.
  这在几个月内翻了一番，而且它一分钱都没有回调。

[12:49] This is one of those stair-stepping as beautiful patterns as you can imagine.
  这是你能想象到的最漂亮的阶梯式模式之一。

[12:53] Sure enough, they get earnings, and the rest was history.
  果然，他们发布了财报，剩下的就成了历史。

[12:57] This was faithfully the one stock and chart I chose, which then happened to just really ignite the whole market rally, especially in the semis.
  这确实是我选择的那只股票和图表，它后来恰好真正点燃了整个市场的反弹，尤其是在半导体领域。

[13:05] Not so coincidental given where the momentum was headed on this.
  考虑到动量在这方面的走向，这并非巧合。

[13:10] Another way of defining trend.
  定义趋势的另一种方式。

[13:12] I think this is a common one for a lot of people, is holding above VWAP.
  我认为这对很多人来说都很常见，就是保持在VWAP之上。

[13:16] So, Nvidia on May 18th, this was again before the blowout earnings, but it's not coincidental that this uh the market was a little strong this day, and this thing just took off.
  所以，5月18日的英伟达，这又是在业绩爆发之前，但这不是巧合，那天市场有点强势，而这只股票就起飞了。

[13:26] And VWAP, volume weighted average price, we held above it the whole time.
  而VWAP，即成交量加权平均价，我们一直保持在它之上。

[13:31] Um I know people might short this type of thing, I'm going to give you rules that help you avoid this, cuz at least for my system and my way of viewing stocks, nowhere on this chart was this a short.
  嗯，我知道人们可能会做空这类股票，我会给你一些规则来帮助你避免这种情况，因为至少根据我的系统和我的股票观察方式，这张图表上没有任何地方是适合做空的。

[13:40] We're holding above VWAP the whole time.
  我们一直保持在VWAP之上。

[13:44] Another way is holding above a moving average.
  另一种方法是保持在移动平均线之上。

[13:46] We're going to use First Solar here.
  我们这里要用First Solar来举例。

[13:47] It's just a one-year weekly chart, and I think it's important that I'm showing you all different time frames.
  这只是一张一年期的周线图，我认为向你们展示不同的时间框架很重要。

[13:52] Everything I'm teaching here is applicable to all time frames.
  我在这里教的所有内容都适用于所有时间框架。

[13:56] My view of technical analysis is much like fractals.
  我对技术分析的看法很像分形。

[13:58] It can be infinitely zoomed out, infinitely zoomed in, the concepts hold, and so First Solar was holding this uh this 20-period moving average, beautiful, beautiful, beautiful, maybe you get stopped out at 180.
  它可以无限缩小，无限放大，这些概念依然成立，所以First Solar一直保持在这条20周期移动平均线上，漂亮，漂亮，漂亮，也许你在180美元被止损了。

[14:11] Um it reclaims, but nevertheless, wonderful.
  嗯，它又收复了，但无论如何，很棒。

[14:13] Chart.
  图表。

[14:13] And so, probably the most micro, or the tightest way of viewing trend, um as opposed to a light general slope, but this is a very tight thing for stock that's trending strongly.
  因此，这可能是最微观或最紧密的趋势观察方式，而不是一个轻微的整体斜率，但对于强劲趋势的股票来说，这是一个非常紧密的东西。

[14:27] And this is when something is holding prior bar lows, or in the inverse, holding prior bar highs.
  这就是当某物保持前一根K线低点，或相反，保持前一根K线高点的情况。

[14:35] So, this is FRC, um the now defunct uh FRC.
  所以，这是FRC，嗯，现已倒闭的FRC。

[14:38] And so, this was in play, it breaks down, and sure enough, we hold prior bar highs in what's a very, very aggressive downtrend.
  因此，这正在发挥作用，它崩溃了，果然，我们在一个非常非常激进的下跌趋势中保持了前一根K线高点。

[14:47] And so, if I'm trying to catch trends, especially in something that's super hyper in play, that's a very, very common trailing stop that I'll use, as you'll see when I get into uh more specific and real-world examples.
  因此，如果我试图捕捉趋势，尤其是在非常活跃的东西中，那是一个非常非常常见的移动止损，我会使用它，正如你在我进入更具体和现实世界的例子时会看到的那样。

[15:00] Another thing is holding a trend line.
  另一件事是持有趋势线。

[15:02] So, someone on Twitter actually kind of you know, tagged me with this chart because of so much I do about trading on the right side of the V once the turn is in.
  所以，推特上有人实际上有点，你知道，用这张图表标记了我，因为我做了很多关于一旦转折点出现就在V形右侧交易的事情。

[15:12] This is Bank of Hawaii.
  这是夏威夷银行。

[15:12] This held a trend line all morning.
  这整个上午都保持了一条趋势线。

[15:12] I know
  我知道

[15:14] It's pasted a little bit off, but close enough.
  它贴得有点歪，但还算接近。

[15:16] We end up breaking the trend, then boom, countertrend is in.
  我们最终打破了趋势，然后砰的一声，逆趋势出现了。

[15:20] We're off to the races.
  我们开始行动了。

[15:23] No reason to be long prior to that if you're holding a short, no reason to cover prior to that as well.
  如果你持有空头头寸，在此之前没有理由做多，同样在此之前也没有理由平仓。

[15:28] The final example I'm going to give, uh, or the final kind of subset of identifying trend, is what I would call holding above a reference price.
  我要给出的最后一个例子，嗯，或者说识别趋势的最后一类子集，就是我所说的保持在参考价格之上。

[15:37] What is a reference price?
  什么是参考价格？

[15:39] This is essentially the unaffected price prior to breaking news or a key catalyst.
  这本质上是在突发新闻或关键催化剂出现之前未受影响的价格。

[15:44] So, it might be, uh, the price of a stock at the close before their earnings after hours.
  所以，它可能是，嗯，股票在盘后财报发布前的收盘价。

[15:48] It might be in the case of this AMD, which had breaking news during the day, uh, that 83.50 or so would be the unaffected price.
  以这只AMD为例，它在盘中出现了突发新闻，嗯，83.50美元左右就是未受影响的价格。

[15:56] So, the way I would look at this chart is one way of viewing it is as long as we held above 83.50, that news would be viewed as {quote} "good", and it would be a positive signal.
  所以，我看这张图表的方式是，一种看法是，只要我们保持在83.50美元之上，那则新闻就会被视为“利好”，并且是一个积极信号。

[16:06] If we get below that 83.50, that would be a sign, uh-oh, maybe this news isn't as good as the market expected, or maybe I'm missing something here.
  如果我们跌破83.50美元，那将是一个信号，哦哦，也许这则新闻没有市场预期的那么好，或者我可能遗漏了什么。

[16:14] And so, doing that, we can start to then build rules.
  因此，这样做，我们就可以开始建立规则了。

[16:16] That we're later going to do.
  我们稍后要做的事情。

[16:19] And so much of this stuff becomes more powerful when these trends are lining on multiple time frames.
  当这些趋势在多个时间框架上排列时，这些东西会变得更加强大。

[16:25] Um, a lot of people discuss the multiple time frame stuff.
  嗯，很多人讨论多时间框架的东西。

[16:29] I know Brian Shannon discusses it, so many people, because it's important.
  我知道布莱恩·香农讨论过它，很多人都在讨论，因为它很重要。

[16:33] And the way I like to think about it is the more people you get on your side, the better.
  我喜欢这样想：站在你这边的人越多越好。

[16:38] I want the Chrises on my side.
  我想要克里斯们站在我这边。

[16:41] I want the Lances.
  我想要兰斯们。

[16:44] I want the hedge funds.
  我想要对冲基金。

[16:46] Every time frame, whether it's monthly, weekly, yearly, day traders, swing traders, I want everybody on that trade.
  每个时间框架，无论是月线、周线、年线，还是日内交易者、波段交易者，我都希望每个人都在那笔交易中。

[16:51] And so, this Tesla, uh, this is pre-split the $900 breakout back in October of '21.
  所以，这个特斯拉，嗯，这是拆分前在2021年10月突破900美元的情况。

[16:58] This was one of those things where this stock made a beautiful, huge move up, went up 6x, made highs at 300 bucks, then we make a higher low, we then make another higher low, we come back to those highs, and we break out on an earnings catalyst.
  这是那种股票出现漂亮的大幅上涨，涨了6倍，创下300美元高点，然后我们形成更高的低点，再形成另一个更高的低点，我们回到那些高点，并在盈利催化剂下突破的情况。

[17:13] This chart is as textbook as you can get, which is why I felt the need to include.
  这张图表再经典不过了，这就是为什么我觉得有必要把它包括进来。

[17:18] It.
  它。

[17:20] You have weekly breakout, you have a daily breakout, you have an intraday breakout, all with an earnings catalyst.
  你有周线突破、日线突破和日内突破，所有这些都伴随着财报催化剂。

[17:26] So, all of those trends are aligning, and we want to be capturing moves just like this.
  所以，所有这些趋势都在汇聚，我们想要捕捉像这样的波动。

[17:32] And then, regarding the um the trailing stop I discussed, if you use even like a weekly chart, you're catching a good good chunk of that using the uh prior bar lows to get you out.
  然后，关于我讨论过的追踪止损，如果你甚至使用周线图，你就能利用之前K线的低点抓住其中很大一部分，从而离场。

[17:41] And so, now as I alluded to before, there's ways to go with the trend uh and still be on kind of that countertrend, right?
  所以，正如我之前提到的，有办法顺应趋势，同时仍然处于某种逆势中，对吧？

[17:51] So, with this GME on January 28th, this is intraday of uh 2021, the stock was just melting in huge volatility.
  所以，对于1月28日的这只GME股票，这是2021年的日内走势，该股在巨大波动中暴跌。

[17:59] So, where it gets scary is if you're fading on the downside, right?
  所以，可怕的地方在于如果你在下跌时逆势操作，对吧？

[18:00] If you buy 210 thinking this is overextended, man, guess what?
  如果你在210买入，认为这已经过度延伸了，老兄，猜怎么着？

[18:04] It went down another 100 points.
  它又跌了100点。

[18:06] And so, I'm sure a lot of people were getting liquidated, a lot of people were blowing up in this.
  所以，我确信很多人被强制平仓，很多人在这上面爆仓了。

[18:12] And so, the key to do is just wait for that countertrend.
  所以，关键就是等待那个逆势。

[18:14] And so, people might say, oh, the trend is down, but I would define the countertrend as
  所以，人们可能会说，哦，趋势是向下的，但我会把逆势定义为

[18:18] Still trend trading, because you're waiting until that reversal.
  仍然是趋势交易，因为你一直在等待那个反转。

[18:22] And I would define that again as the break of prior bar highs.
  我会再次将其定义为突破前一根K线的高点。

[18:23] So, I'd be buying in this bar if possible, and trying to catch this move higher.
  所以，如果可能的话，我会在这根K线上买入，并试图抓住这波上涨。

[18:30] So much of my mean reversion was so elevated once I waited for that countertrend.
  一旦我等待那个逆势，我的均值回归策略就变得非常有效。

[18:36] I stopped drawing down, I stopped taking so much heat.
  我停止了回撤，也停止了承受那么多压力。

[18:37] That's one of the big things that transformed my big losses into bigger gainers.
  这是将我的大亏损转变为更大收益的关键因素之一。

[18:42] And so, here's my first challenge to you all.
  所以，这是我给你们的第一个挑战。

[18:44] I want you to make a list of all the ways you define a trend, much like the examples I gave, but what are some other ways you can think up?
  我希望你们列出所有定义趋势的方法，就像我给出的例子一样，但你们还能想到哪些其他方式？

[18:52] But then, the most important part is to document it with example charts and ticker write-ups.
  但接下来，最重要的部分是用示例图表和股票代码记录来记录它。

[18:58] As I'm going to say again and again, the more detailed you do for this little challenge, the better it's going to be.
  正如我将一再强调的，你为这个小挑战做得越详细，效果就会越好。

[19:04] And so, once you've really defined trend for you and your system and your style of trading, you can then make rules and systems based on this.
  所以，一旦你真正为自己、你的系统和你的交易风格定义了趋势，你就可以据此制定规则和系统。

[19:14] So, one rule that I'll kind of give you all that I've found, um, other...
  所以，我会给你们一个我发现的规则，嗯，其他……

[19:18] Eight-figure traders also use, like um, one of my good friends Kenny at SMB, we kind of both stumbled upon this rule independently, and it's probably one of the key tenants to our trading.
  八位数交易者也使用，比如嗯，我在SMB的好朋友Kenny，我们俩都独立发现了这个规则，这可能是我们交易的关键原则之一。

[19:29] That's not coincidental uh that we both stumbled upon this, but it is I will never be long if a stock is steadily holding um above VWAP, or sorry, I messed this up.
  这不是巧合嗯我们俩都发现了这一点，但我会说，如果股票稳定地嗯保持在VWAP之上，我永远不会做多，或者抱歉，我说错了。

[19:41] I'll never be long if a stock is steadily holding below VWAP unless it capitulates.
  如果股票稳定地保持在VWAP之下，我永远不会做多，除非它崩溃。

[19:47] Vice versa, I'll never be short if a stock is steadily holding above VWAP unless it capitulates.
  反之亦然，如果股票稳定地保持在VWAP之上，我永远不会做空，除非它崩溃。

[19:52] So, in those examples I gave like that Nvidia chart, we're holding above that VWAP, I have no reason to be shorting it unless it capitulates, which it didn't do.
  所以，在我给出的那些例子中，比如那个英伟达图表，我们保持在VWAP之上，我没有理由做空它，除非它崩溃，而它并没有。

[20:00] And that can really help you avoid a lot of losses.
  这确实能帮助你避免很多损失。

[20:05] Another thing is I will not take trades in range-bound or consolidating stocks.
  另一件事是，我不会在区间震荡或盘整的股票中进行交易。

[20:08] And I'll give you an example of that.
  我会给你一个例子。

[20:11] But so many people end up in what I call no man's land, where the stock isn't currently trending.
  但很多人最终陷入我所谓的无人区，即股票目前没有趋势。

[20:15] Volatility is compressing.
  波动性正在压缩。

[20:18] I often use Bollinger Bands to demonstrate that for that reason.
  我经常用布林带来说明这一点。

[20:20] when volatility is compressing, the

[20:22] range is compressing, so many people

[20:24] will tend to turn themselves there, and

[20:27] all their nice gains when stocks are

[20:29] trending then get overshadowed by some

[20:32] of those losses. Another interesting

[20:34] rule that I I think is a great one to

[20:35] think about is I will size 25% bigger or

[20:39] some amount bigger when the intraday and

[20:41] daily trends are aligning. So, what

[20:43] happens if you have something

[20:45] capitulating on the daily as well as the

[20:48] intraday?

[20:49] What happens if you have something

[20:50] breaking out like that Tesla, breaking

[20:52] out intraday and breaking out on the

[20:54] daily, the weekly, the monthly?

[20:56] How do you handle that? Are you getting

[20:59] bigger and taking advantage of having

[21:00] all those players on your side? And

[21:03] that's where

[21:04] when you identify these trends properly,

[21:06] you can really start to take advantage

[21:08] and apply it into your trading with

[21:10] these rules.

[21:12] So, this

[21:14] is a great chart. This is Avago, well, I

[21:16] guess Broadcom used to be Avago, AVGO,

[21:19] and this was just May 26th.

[21:22] This stock exploded as part of the

[21:25] Nvidia earnings explosion on the AI

[21:27] guide. And a lot of people on FinTwit

[21:31] were fighting this stock. This was its

[21:33] second huge day in a row, but what we

[21:35] find here is this was steady as as she

[21:38] can go, right? So, we were talking about

[21:39] the slope. If I were to do a best-fit

[21:41] line, this slope is very, very steady,

[21:45] right? And at no point do we get away

[21:47] from it.

[21:48] I have this simple moving average. Um,

[21:51] we're just hugging this thing the whole

[21:53] day. There is no reason to be short this

[21:55] thing while it's holding above these

[21:57] trends. And again, my one exception

[21:58] would be if it capitulates to the

[22:00] upside, but I don't see that anywhere.

[22:02] We don't have any crazy volume spikes,

[22:04] we don't have any crazy price spikes

[22:06] where things just really pushed higher.

[22:08] We start to get a little bit off the

[22:10] moving average towards the end of the

[22:11] day, but but really nothing to get me

[22:14] interested. So, that's how you avoid a

[22:16] rip, that's how you stay with a winner,

[22:18] and that stuff adds up big time.

[22:21] And now I'm going to give you an example

[22:22] of no man's land. This was in IEP, the

[22:25] Icahn

[22:26] Holding Co. May 25th. This stock was

[22:29] obviously getting beat to crap on the

[22:31] Hindenburg report. And so, the way I

[22:33] look at this stock is essentially off

[22:35] the open, we made a down leg. We tried

[22:39] to put in some type of a bottom and kind

[22:41] of stall out. And so, what we'll see is

[22:43] at this point

[22:45] we aren't making lows here. Uh, we try

[22:48] to make highs, we don't get get

[22:49] anywhere. So, a lot of people, if you're

[22:51] taking in kind of this blue circle, if

[22:54] you're shorting in here, that's going to

[22:56] be a bad idea, but just because you're

[22:58] still in the range, right? So, I don't

[22:59] want to short anywhere in this blue

[23:01] circle.

[23:02] Um, I really want to wait for it to

[23:04] break this bottom yellow line because

[23:06] now we're in a new price range. Now

[23:08] we're starting a new trend. And so, all

[23:10] of this is what I would call

[23:11] consolidation. If I am going to play

[23:14] anything, I might consider a long out of

[23:15] that range. Um, if you take these, you

[23:17] don't really end up in in too much

[23:19] trouble. But again,

[23:21] at least in my view, shorting in here

[23:23] while kind of this countertrend is is

[23:25] attempting to bounce, those are going to

[23:27] end up being very low probability and

[23:29] probably take away from the trades where

[23:31] it does consolidate then break later.

[23:35] So, my second challenge for you all,

[23:37] make a list of rules to follow based on

[23:38] whether a stock is trending or

[23:40] range-bound. I gave you a couple

[23:42] examples of real ones I use.

[23:45] Um, especially not taking anything

[23:47] counter to the trend unless it

[23:48] capitulates. And then of course, you

[23:50] define capitulation and everything else.

[23:52] Stuff like that is really game-changing

[23:54] to your trading. Even simple things like

[23:56] sizing up a little bit bigger when the

[23:58] trends aligned, that can be the

[24:00] difference between starting to really

[24:02] add skew to your trading so that when

[24:03] you get those pocket aces or those good

[24:05] hands, you really make it count versus

[24:07] otherwise. And that's what really helped

[24:09] me kind of not just avoid those losers,

[24:12] but start to really ramp on the big

[24:13] gainers. As always, charts and tickers

[24:16] with details, the more the better. And

[24:19] so now, diving into when trends tend to

[24:22] start so we can spot them.

[24:24] A couple big reasons, first of all, is

[24:26] breaking news or a fundamental catalyst.

[24:29] I'll give you a bunch of examples, but

[24:31] immediately that comes to mind is that

[24:32] Nvidia earnings guide. Boy, oh boy, was

[24:35] that a big whopper. Another thing is

[24:37] breaking out of consolidation or ranges.

[24:40] So, if we want to start combining these,

[24:42] the more the better, of course, right?

[24:44] So, if we think about Tesla on that $900

[24:47] pre-split level break, we had a huge

[24:50] breakout to all-time highs out of a

[24:53] range, and we had a fundamental

[24:55] catalyst, right? So, you have all the

[24:57] momentum technical traders buying it,

[24:59] you have the hedge funds that are

[25:01] bullish on the stock like the Cathie

[25:02] Wood's buying it, you have shorts that

[25:04] are saying, "Oh my god, if if 900 was my

[25:06] stop, I need to get out of this thing."

[25:09] So, every single person, small or large,

[25:11] is on your side when you we combine

[25:13] these these things that start that

[25:14] trend.

[25:15] Another thing that people might tend to

[25:17] overlook,

[25:19] following the exhaustion or capitulation

[25:21] of a trend, you tend to get one in the

[25:24] opposite direction. Like that GME chart

[25:26] I showed. And, you know, some other

[25:27] examples like from the to tie it into

[25:29] the prior one, that AMD chart, we had a

[25:31] news catalyst, Tesla had the $900

[25:33] breakout, the GME was the capitulation.

[25:36] So, I'm trying to give you guys real

[25:37] world to think about this and and tie it

[25:39] in.

[25:40] These are the charts I was previously

[25:41] mentioning as a little refresher.

[25:44] And so, when do trends tend to end?

[25:49] This is just as important, I think, and

[25:50] it it really touches on a lot of what

[25:53] what Chris was talking about in the

[25:54] prior presentation, although he

[25:55] definitely had insights very unique and

[25:58] different from mine. But what I tend to

[26:00] look for are in one way huge volume and

[26:04] price exhaustion,

[26:05] aka capitulatory signals, showing that

[26:09] like things got a little too hot or a

[26:11] little too bearish, euphoric

[26:13] pessimistic, and that real flush out.

[26:16] That's so often what I look for as my

[26:18] number one probably favorite thing to

[26:20] signify an end of a trend.

[26:22] Another thing that tends to change trend

[26:24] is after there's been multiple large

[26:26] legs. The more legs in one direction and

[26:30] the larger these legs are, especially if

[26:32] they're accelerating in size, that's

[26:34] when you tend to also get more probable

[26:37] signs of a reversal. And then of course,

[26:40] breaking news or fundamental catalysts

[26:42] that are counter to the trend. Another

[26:44] thing is when no consolidation occurs.

[26:46] So, really consolidation to me is kind

[26:48] of that price acceptance, especially if

[26:51] something's made a large move, you need

[26:53] this equilibrium time period where the

[26:55] people that want to sell are able to get

[26:57] their sales, the people that want to buy

[26:58] and establish new price get their buys

[27:01] in. And so, it's really just people

[27:02] found little

[27:04] equilibrium where price is agreed upon,

[27:06] and that's really what sets foundation

[27:10] much like those those phases Chris was

[27:12] talking about where you have those those

[27:13] set ranges that things can either break

[27:15] out from or then break down from.

[27:21] So, one example of this chart is

[27:24] Alibaba. So, this was kind of a darling

[27:27] stock up up a couple hundred bucks, but

[27:29] then as we all know, it got crushed

[27:31] last year. And what we found was around

[27:35] the President Xi kind of re-election and

[27:37] everything, we had that massive puke out

[27:40] where everyone said,

[27:42] "You know, China's done for, it's it's

[27:44] nobody can own any of these stocks." And

[27:47] what's so notable is look at that volume

[27:48] bar cuz we had some big kind of volume

[27:52] earlier in the year, but this was just

[27:54] so many multiples of that. The price was

[27:56] a massive dump. So, that's really kind

[27:58] of all the signals you want to see for

[28:00] peak pessimism that then kind of made

[28:03] the foundation of that move higher.

[28:07] So, here's my third challenge to you

[28:08] all.

[28:09] Take some of the groundwork I laid and

[28:11] systematize reasons why you feel trends

[28:13] begin and end.

[28:15] I've not given them all, there's still

[28:16] many other ones. There's stuff that's

[28:18] going to be unique to you and your

[28:19] system, your observation,

[28:21] much like Chris had and and other

[28:23] presenters have had.

[28:25] That's going to what make it That's

[28:26] what's going to make it even more

[28:27] powerful is when you personalize all

[28:29] these. As always, charts, ticker

[28:31] write-ups will do you good.

[28:33] So, now what we're going to do is

[28:34] dissect some of my big losses and big

[28:36] gainers.

[28:38] Um,

[28:38] so I can show you kind of how I applied

[28:40] this to my own trading and how this led

[28:42] to kind of some of those those big wins.

[28:45] Um, again, like I said, so often I

[28:47] wouldn't wait for that countertrend to

[28:49] be in place. I I think most traders,

[28:51] myself included, we're never perfect. I

[28:53] still sometimes fall for this, and

[28:55] that's going to be one of my examples I

[28:56] discuss. Um, and also, a lot of times

[28:59] you can think you're just stubborn and

[29:00] smarter than the market um, and not

[29:02] listen to that that price action.

[29:05] So, one of the examples where even even

[29:08] me, right? Nobody's perfect, I still got

[29:10] in trouble with Tesla late '22. Um,

[29:14] Tesla had been holding up exceedingly

[29:16] well, especially versus the market. Um,

[29:20] despite so much of tech having sold off,

[29:22] Tesla held up well, but then it starts

[29:24] to crack with some of the Elon Twitter

[29:25] stuff, and we start to hold this

[29:27] downtrend. Um,

[29:30] I wasn't interested anywhere too early.

[29:32] Like, yes, it's a big move on a

[29:33] percentage basis. We're going from 300

[29:36] to 160 in a matter of a couple months.

[29:40] Um, but really we're not making so big

[29:42] of a move. We're not extended below the

[29:44] lower Bollinger, we're not so far away

[29:46] from the moving average, we're not so

[29:48] far away from this trend line, but then

[29:50] what starts to happen where I really get

[29:52] caught and I think a lot of traders kind

[29:54] of fell for this, too, was in late

[29:57] November into December into the

[29:58] year-end.

[29:59] Tesla finally started to puke out and

[30:03] what happened is if we take that slope,

[30:05] we start to now accelerate, but the

[30:08] issue is we never had this real

[30:11] multi-day flush out.

[30:14] We have a lot of these inside bars where

[30:16] it's kind of price acceptance. So, we're

[30:17] going to go one big down day inside bar,

[30:20] one big down day inside bar, one big

[30:22] down day inside bar. So, yes, we're

[30:24] accelerating, but we're not really

[30:26] getting that flush. Another huge

[30:28] indicator of this is in our volume.

[30:31] So, this trend is certainly starting to

[30:34] accelerate, but it's not capitulating

[30:37] and I really want to wait for that turn

[30:39] and I was fighting it. I did not wait

[30:40] for the turn, shame on me, broke a lot

[30:42] of my rules and that led to a lot of

[30:45] losses. You know, it's some of that that

[30:47] FOMO where it's like it's getting there,

[30:49] it's such a mega cap stock and making

[30:51] such a big move and you wanted to kind

[30:53] of do that puke, but it just wasn't

[30:54] happening and when you kind of settle on

[30:56] your

[30:58] um

[30:58] your I guess compromise on your rules

[31:00] and and and break those, that's what led

[31:03] to me getting into a lot of trouble when

[31:05] guess what? This never did end up like

[31:07] mega capitulating and what you could

[31:09] have done is just kind of waited for

[31:10] that trend break where you're no longer

[31:12] maintaining, right? And and it's worth

[31:14] pointing out we kind of have the lower

[31:15] lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower

[31:18] highs, lower lows, lower highs, little

[31:21] bit lower lows. Then we kind of make I

[31:24] guess a lower high, but then it gets

[31:26] broken, right? And so, that's where

[31:29] um

[31:30] that's where you want to start to

[31:31] initiate and um

[31:33] that that you break your rules, you end

[31:35] up in trouble and you learn your rules

[31:37] after a decade and and we all still mess

[31:39] up.

[31:40] So, now I want to show you the opposite

[31:42] of messing up, what living with the

[31:44] trend looks like. So, most of my trading

[31:46] was intraday based. Um really the huge

[31:50] bulk of it. I was essentially a day

[31:51] trader and I would do a little overnight

[31:53] some swing trading, but I really want to

[31:55] zoom into February 23, 2021.

[31:59] This was an awesome day for trading with

[32:01] the counter trend.

[32:03] The market overall was panicking big

[32:05] this day. The Qs were gapping down big.

[32:08] I highly recommend you all going back

[32:10] and studying this day. There were more

[32:11] tickers than just these, but I wanted to

[32:13] highlight some of the big ones. And the

[32:15] beautiful thing about this day is there

[32:16] was also a breaking news catalyst where

[32:19] I traded that with the trend and so

[32:20] really this day was a pretty diverse

[32:22] opportunity set where if you followed

[32:25] these, there was a lot of money to be

[32:26] made, particularly the news catalyst.

[32:29] So, this was a seven-figure day for me

[32:32] both with the trend on the news and the

[32:33] counter trend. So, let's let's dive in.

[32:37] First things first, Workhorse,

[32:40] you know, it's it's funny looking back

[32:41] with with the with the

[32:43] passing of time because we know

[32:45] Workhorse is is now in the dumpster.

[32:48] Uh

[32:49] But this stock was already pulling back.

[32:51] We had huge breaking news this day about

[32:53] its kind of financial viability going

[32:56] forward. A lot of what I did was news

[32:58] catalyst trading. So, when that headline

[33:01] came out, boom, you know, shorted as

[33:03] much as I could. We go limit down, we

[33:05] end up halting, halting, halting. So,

[33:06] now look at the range of the stock,

[33:08] right? It started in 30 bucks. So, if

[33:11] you try to analyze this thing like

[33:14] so many people are going to end up

[33:15] covering early. My my job is not to be

[33:18] that analyst. I know I know Chris, for

[33:20] example, works in the fundamentals in,

[33:22] but I'm not smart enough for that. I try

[33:23] and just trust my system. And so, this

[33:26] is clearly a sharp trend, we've got a

[33:27] big catalyst. So, I was just going to do

[33:29] my two-minute bar prior bar highs like

[33:32] we discussed on some of those other

[33:33] things and I end up having some

[33:36] incredible covers for almost all my

[33:38] size.

[33:39] Um

[33:40] There's no chance I ever would have been

[33:43] able to hold this trade if I just didn't

[33:45] have a simple system. And yes, that

[33:47] system won't always work, it won't

[33:49] always be perfect, but the goal is to

[33:51] find a system that in the aggregate

[33:53] works. And when you're trading with the

[33:56] trend on these catalysts, I took no heat

[33:58] on this. You know, much like if you

[34:00] bought AMD a month ago when it came out

[34:03] with their their their news, when you

[34:05] short Workhorse on some of this news, if

[34:06] you're quick and that's your game,

[34:08] you're with the trend, you're never

[34:10] taking heat on this, you have a clear

[34:11] stop. Beautiful, beautiful trade.

[34:14] On the other side of the spectrum, this

[34:16] was buying stuff that panicked and

[34:19] flushed out on that market down day. So,

[34:21] I was trading with the counter trend.

[34:24] Um

[34:25] This ticker SOS, this was um not a huge

[34:28] winner, but but a decent example. And

[34:30] what we have is a stock panics off the

[34:32] open. We then kind of start to firm up.

[34:35] You know, two-minute bars are holding

[34:37] prior bar lows. We have like a little

[34:39] break of prior bar highs, very clear

[34:41] entry and very simple system allows you

[34:44] to capture that move. And again, because

[34:46] you're you're waiting for that turn, I'm

[34:49] not buying the $7 here. I'm buying it on

[34:52] what I call the right side of the V

[34:54] after that turn is in and I'm taking no

[34:56] heat on that. Easy peasy, I have a tight

[34:58] stop. That is just a textbook trade for

[35:00] me.

[35:01] Some of the bigger winners, it's also

[35:03] laughable to see this chart, which was

[35:05] you know, in the 140s.

[35:08] Stock really panics, flushes out right

[35:10] around the open. I again wait for that

[35:12] turn just based on a very simple system

[35:15] of prior bar highs being broken and we

[35:18] make a really nice counter trend and and

[35:21] capture that. And so, the other key for

[35:23] people watching this is why am I trading

[35:26] these tickers? It's because these

[35:27] tickers were the most in play. The

[35:30] Workhorse had a huge fresh news

[35:31] catalyst. The SI, the SOS, the Tesla,

[35:35] which is going to be my next chart,

[35:36] these stocks were making the biggest,

[35:38] most extended moves. So, if the stock

[35:40] market is panicking, I want to find the

[35:42] stocks that are panicking the most and

[35:44] flushing out the most, the biggest price

[35:46] ranges.

[35:47] And of course, that's tickers that don't

[35:50] have fresh news, so then I can capture

[35:51] that counter trend when they're

[35:53] bouncing.

[35:54] Final final ticker,

[35:56] Tesla, more of a household name.

[35:59] This trended weak into the open. We

[36:01] break the trend and so now once we break

[36:04] that trend,

[36:05] um

[36:07] catch a really nice leg. We're kind of

[36:08] testing up towards the highs, light

[36:10] pullback, it's totally acceptable to

[36:12] have another buy there cuz you're still

[36:14] going with the trend, a little

[36:15] continuation play.

[36:17] Um

[36:17] Why didn't I sell on this bar? It's a

[36:19] little bit too early to sell cuz we just

[36:21] broke out. At that point, I might want

[36:22] to just give it to the breakout level.

[36:24] Allows me to catch just a little bit

[36:25] more. So,

[36:27] the beauty of this day was stocks were

[36:29] hyper in play

[36:31] between both the market and the breaking

[36:33] news. I took no heat anywhere, right?

[36:35] So, there were days in my career where

[36:37] I'd be putting up six-figure days,

[36:39] seven-figure days. I'd be doing that on

[36:41] really tight stops.

[36:44] Because

[36:46] so often if I was ever drawing down,

[36:48] that would be a signal to me that Lance,

[36:50] odds are you're structuring this trade

[36:52] wrong, right? It's one thing if you take

[36:54] a trade for size and it doesn't work,

[36:56] but so often if I was like really,

[36:57] really fighting or really, really

[36:59] drawing down and it wasn't just up,

[37:01] trade failed, that's a signal to me

[37:03] there's probably a smarter way to

[37:04] structure this. I don't need to be

[37:06] buying on the left side when things are

[37:07] still going down and we're holding prior

[37:10] bar highs as we had lower. I don't need

[37:11] to buy there. I can wait for that turn.

[37:14] And so, my fourth challenge to you is

[37:16] for you to do the same project that I

[37:18] did, the same project that let me really

[37:20] break out. Dissect your own trading to

[37:22] find where in your strategies you could

[37:24] better optimize by always being with the

[37:25] trend or finding ways to not fight the

[37:27] trend.

[37:29] Then

[37:30] with all those rules and everything, I

[37:31] want you to document with the charts and

[37:32] write-ups and it really will change your

[37:34] trading. Like it it did for me and like

[37:37] it's such a worthwhile project. Like I

[37:39] can't think of any trader, regardless of

[37:42] time frame, regardless of specialty,

[37:44] that that wouldn't benefit from this.

[37:46] So, in summary, you're going to find all

[37:49] the ways to define the trend, you're

[37:51] going to make a list of rules that you

[37:52] should be following based on whether a

[37:54] stock is trending or range bound. Then

[37:56] you're going to systematize reasons why

[37:57] you personally feel trends begin and

[37:59] end. Then dissecting your trading over

[38:01] the last couple years, all the winners

[38:03] and and big losers,

[38:05] where can this thinking better help you

[38:07] optimize your strategies?

[38:10] So, look guys, I'm not a I'm not a

[38:12] jealous man. We can all fall in love

[38:14] with the trend. It's got a lot of love

[38:15] to give cuz I know it's helped so many

[38:18] people throughout history, right? From

[38:20] from Jesse Livermore until now,

[38:23] thousands, tens of thousands, maybe

[38:25] hundreds of thousands of traders have

[38:27] all found that living with the trend,

[38:29] loving the trend has rewarded them and

[38:31] done them so well. So, I want you to

[38:32] really take the time to reflect on this.

[38:34] Are there places where you can avoid

[38:37] losses by being with the trend? Are

[38:39] there ways where you can hold on and and

[38:41] to the trend longer and find more

[38:42] reward? Are there ways that you can size

[38:45] up when the trend on multiple time

[38:47] frames is confirming?

[38:50] Thank you all for listening and I'd love

[38:51] to now open it up to questions.

[38:55] Yeah, awesome Lance. Thank you so much

[38:56] for that and there are a few good ones

[38:58] coming in. I've got some as well.

[39:00] Thank you so much for taking the time to

[39:02] put that together.

[39:03] This is the perfect time. If you do have

[39:05] a question for Lance, drop it in the

[39:06] live chat as I go through these first

[39:08] few ones.

[39:09] First, um

[39:11] there's a good one from Perk, I believe,

[39:15] um

[39:15] about that 223 day. He was wondering if

[39:18] you could elaborate more about how you

[39:20] found the big movers to short or buy on

[39:23] the bounce. Were you really looking for

[39:26] stocks that had catalysts? Where were

[39:27] you looking to find those catalysts? Or

[39:29] were you doing any screens for high

[39:30] volume, something similar to that?

[39:32] Yeah, great great great question.

[39:35] So, when I'm trying to do those mean

[39:37] reversion plays where the stock flushes

[39:40] out and then I'm buying that

[39:41] countertrend.

[39:43] So, I'm looking for stocks that in an

[39:46] ideal world don't have news.

[39:48] Right, the market's down. I can't

[39:51] remember at this point, you know,

[39:52] 2 3% whatever, maybe maybe more. I want

[39:55] to find the stocks down the most without

[39:57] news. It's not that I won't ever do mean

[40:00] reversion for a stock with a catalyst. I

[40:02] might do that, but I need to it's much

[40:04] more difficult. In an ideal world, I

[40:07] want the stocks with no fresh news.

[40:08] They're just the ones that are panicking

[40:10] more than the market. Somebody's scared,

[40:12] somebody's dumping, someone's getting

[40:14] liquidated. So, part of finding the

[40:16] right tickers is for starters doing the

[40:19] premarket prep and figuring out what

[40:21] does and what does not have news. So, um

[40:24] I mean whether it's trade the news,

[40:26] Bloomberg, Briefing, um there's a

[40:28] zillion different news sources.

[40:30] Um

[40:31] a lot of them help you find out with

[40:33] like premarket reports what's moving. Um

[40:35] then the other thing the other tool that

[40:37] helps is there's a lot of scanners. Uh

[40:40] you can you can use or build or program.

[40:43] Um

[40:44] I've mostly been on the prop side, so

[40:45] I've had pro software that's that's not

[40:47] available to the public, but I'm sure

[40:48] people um on Twitter or elsewhere can

[40:51] help you out with with the names of of

[40:52] public software. It does exist. I know a

[40:54] lot of people use it. Um but with a lot

[40:57] of these scanners, what I'm looking for

[40:58] is what's gapping down the most, um

[41:01] what's doing the most premarket volume,

[41:03] um

[41:04] and a lot of software places also have

[41:07] just price spike filters. And and you

[41:09] can again, if you have programming

[41:11] background, you can kind of construct

[41:12] all this stuff yourself anyways. Uh but

[41:14] there is definitely um packages out

[41:16] there that offer this. And so, what I'm

[41:18] looking for is what are the stocks down

[41:20] the most premarket, then off the open,

[41:22] what are the stocks really making lows?

[41:24] Um

[41:25] you can have filters for for breaking

[41:26] new lows and showing you what percent

[41:28] they're down. And so, I try to find

[41:30] those charts where it's like, "Whoa. QSR

[41:33] down three. I I've done the work, so I

[41:35] know what what tickers have news on

[41:37] them, why why everything's moving and

[41:39] why this ticker um it's been weak. Now

[41:42] we're really really panicking." Um so, a

[41:44] lot of it is it is a mix of premarket

[41:46] prep, then having uh those those tech

[41:48] scanners to identify that.

[41:51] Yeah, perfect. Um

[41:53] before I get to my my next question, I

[41:55] do want to touch on risk management a

[41:56] little bit because it's such an

[41:57] important part of, you know, a a

[41:59] long-term career in trading. Uh can you

[42:02] discuss, you know, uh the different ways

[42:05] that you manage risk to make sure that,

[42:07] you know, any one trade can't, you know,

[42:09] take you out completely out of the game?

[42:11] Yep.

[42:12] So, risk management actually was one of

[42:14] my um biggest weaknesses, which is

[42:16] surprising to a lot of people that I

[42:18] could have had such a strong career.

[42:20] Um

[42:21] and

[42:22] part of my poor risk management, I mean

[42:26] the only reason I had a career was

[42:27] because I was doing stuff with a lot of

[42:29] edge, so I could get away with some of

[42:31] these big losses, um but that doesn't

[42:33] mean it was fun. So, around this time

[42:36] like

[42:37] and this kind of is that story of like,

[42:38] "Wow, like I need to really tighten my

[42:40] ship up. I can't I can't take these

[42:42] losses. They're just not fun. They're

[42:44] demotivating." Like part of the issue

[42:46] with big rips is it's just they spur

[42:49] such a negative feedback loop. Um

[42:51] so, I kind of had had my moment of of

[42:54] reflection. And a lot of those big rips

[42:56] came when I didn't have a stop. And it

[42:58] sounds like trading 101, but a lot of

[43:00] what I was doing was mean reversion when

[43:02] things were really panicking. And so,

[43:04] part of those big losses came because I

[43:07] didn't have a stop in some of these

[43:08] trades because I wasn't waiting for the

[43:10] turn. And so, the first thing I did was

[43:13] I removed any type of trading where I

[43:15] didn't have a stop. And like look, there

[43:16] can always be flukes where a stock gets

[43:18] halted or a stock has fluke news on you.

[43:20] Like there's there's nothing that can

[43:22] ever take that that black swan risk

[43:24] away. Like that's happened to me

[43:25] multiple times. But so, step one, I'd

[43:28] I'd really dissect any trade you have

[43:30] that doesn't have a stop and find again,

[43:32] there is a way to structure it so you

[43:34] can have a stop. So, that's step one. Um

[43:36] step two for risk management then is

[43:39] knowing how much you want to risk in

[43:40] different types of setups and also based

[43:43] on the quality of setup. And so, I

[43:44] actually tweeted this out yesterday. It

[43:46] came up from a great question with one

[43:48] of the traders I work with. And

[43:51] he said, "How do you kind of really

[43:52] choose those risk amounts? Like if you

[43:54] know a setup is greater or whatnot?" And

[43:56] my answer was you want to risk towards

[44:00] what would be an optimal amount,

[44:02] but you never want to risk so much that

[44:04] if some trades go wrong or a couple

[44:06] trades go wrong,

[44:07] um

[44:08] you never want to lose enough that it

[44:10] becomes demotivating or um

[44:13] any anywhere near the amount that can

[44:15] take you out of the game. And so, that's

[44:16] kind of how you roughly find how to do

[44:19] that. And then I'd say, "Okay, these are

[44:21] my setups. These are how I would rate

[44:23] this is an A setup for this, this is B

[44:25] setup, this is a C setup." Then I'd have

[44:27] set risk amounts. Okay, if

[44:30] um if I'm going to risk maybe 10K on an

[44:34] A, I want to risk 3K on a B, I might

[44:37] only want to risk 1K on a C. Whatever is

[44:39] the right amount for you. There's no

[44:41] perfect answer, but it's really about

[44:43] kind of systematizing your playbook,

[44:44] always having a stop in there, and kind

[44:46] of really redu- like deducing, "What am

[44:49] I okay taking that won't mess me up and

[44:51] won't bother my motivation and

[44:53] demotivate me and all that?"

[44:55] Yeah, perfect. Uh and I just want to say

[44:56] before I ask my next question, I really

[44:58] love the challenge idea. I think that's

[45:00] perfect. It it really emphasizes the

[45:02] need that you need to, you know,

[45:03] establish rules, but also put in the

[45:05] work, find examples, and that's how you

[45:08] kind of build you know, not only the

[45:10] rules, but also kind of the the mental

[45:12] intuition about a setup and and, you

[45:14] know, recognize different

[45:16] characteristics. So, so I think that's

[45:17] really important. Um would you be able

[45:19] to go back to one of the examples about

[45:21] um

[45:22] it might be the Tesla one where you're

[45:24] you're talking about the turn and the

[45:26] start of the right side of the V. Uh

[45:28] because my question is if you could go a

[45:30] little bit deeper. Yeah, I think this is

[45:32] good. Um

[45:33] what are the characteristics you look

[45:35] look for to identify that the right side

[45:39] of the V is beginning? You've you've

[45:41] you've definitely touched on a bunch,

[45:42] but just to re-emphasize that point

[45:43] because I think that that is a really

[45:44] key aspect of of your expertise. Yep.

[45:47] So, let's let's dive down a little bit

[45:49] more into that. Um

[45:52] Trading really is a game of nuances. And

[45:55] so, people will say, "Oh, like, you

[45:57] know, this is death by a thousand paper

[45:59] cuts or whatever." And so, so much is

[46:02] the more nuanced and detailed you

[46:05] become,

[46:07] when you start to play the very very

[46:09] best hands, that's what gets your win

[46:11] rate much much higher. And so, I didn't

[46:14] want to just drown people in charts, but

[46:16] if you were to pull up the daily charts

[46:18] for these tickers here, what you're

[46:20] going to find is these daily charts were

[46:22] so exceptionally extended. Like these

[46:24] stocks were puking out huge moves in a

[46:27] matter of a couple days, right? So, what

[46:29] we have is we have something that's

[46:32] totally puking and capitulating on the

[46:34] daily chart. We have something that's

[46:36] totally puking and capitulating on the

[46:38] intraday. Um I cut off the volume on

[46:41] this chart just for I didn't know how

[46:43] much viewers would be able to see if I

[46:45] made things too small. But in all of

[46:47] these charts, volume's capitulating big.

[46:49] And so, if you try to do this in stocks

[46:52] that aren't really in play, right? Like

[46:54] my personal belief is 99% of stocks most

[46:57] of the time 99% of the time are just

[46:59] noise, right? And in a lot of the time

[47:02] frames, there isn't edge unless

[47:04] something is is trending or making an

[47:07] exceptional move, right? If you told me

[47:09] if you told me, "Lance, you need to just

[47:10] spend your career trading uh Sirius or

[47:13] GE or or this or that stock." You know,

[47:16] like everything rotates whether it's in

[47:18] play or out of play, and I want to move

[47:19] to the markets and the tickers that are

[47:21] the um most trending, the most in play.

[47:25] And so, the first step for everything is

[47:27] to be in the right names, and it doesn't

[47:29] matter your time frame, right? Like

[47:31] there's years where if you were to trade

[47:33] oil or nat gas or gold or whatever,

[47:37] it's not going to move more than a a

[47:39] half percent today. It's going to go

[47:40] nowhere. It's just range-bound years.

[47:42] But if you traded nat gas

[47:44] uh you know, last year or oil, you know,

[47:47] the last couple years, it's like you

[47:49] were going to do exceptionally well

[47:50] because it was in play. Um so, then

[47:52] within that,

[47:54] really what I want to find is and again

[47:57] like those details is that I'm touching

[47:59] on. Like so, volume. What does volume

[48:02] capitulation? Like so, one simple

[48:03] heuristic I'll throw out is in an ideal

[48:05] world, I want to see 2x volume on that

[48:09] bar than the prior bar. So, that might

[48:11] be at a daily time frame. That might be

[48:13] at the intraday time frame. Ideally

[48:15] both. And so, when you get something

[48:17] that's doing huge puke out volume on the

[48:19] daily, then intraday it does huge puke

[48:22] out volume. That's what starts to really

[48:24] align those things to increase those

[48:27] odds. So, those are some of the nuances

[48:29] I'm looking for, right? And again like

[48:31] it doesn't mean I won't trade something

[48:33] if it doesn't align, but that might

[48:35] affect my sizing. It might affect how

[48:37] many attempts I choose to give it. And

[48:40] so then the bigger and more extended,

[48:42] the better, right? So, let's say this

[48:44] Tesla didn't work cuz people will say,

[48:46] "Oh, Lance, how do you know? Like maybe

[48:47] you could have bought here, right?" And

[48:48] that's totally true. And if you stop

[48:51] out, which I do all the time, that's

[48:53] fine, right? But if something kind of

[48:57] um

[48:57] gets better where it's it's it's a

[49:00] faster move, it's more capitulation,

[49:03] it's

[49:04] it's gone further now, that's what you

[49:06] really want where all those things are

[49:08] just getting better. And so, I'm really

[49:10] trying to get my odds as high as

[49:12] possible on my side where like you you

[49:15] know, those moves where the price is

[49:16] just skipping and it's like, "Oh my god,

[49:18] like how are we here now? We were just

[49:20] we were just there." Like like a Vago,

[49:22] sorry, uh Broadcom, AVGO. Uh that that

[49:25] buyout still messes me up. Uh

[49:27] but like Broadcom, when that went to 920

[49:30] that one day, that unlike the prior days

[49:33] in Broadcom where I had those charts up,

[49:36] it was it steady Eddie, right? Slope of

[49:38] one. That stock just ramped off the

[49:40] open, right? after multiple days where

[49:43] that stock on the daily chart, if you

[49:45] got if you got Chris up there, he would

[49:47] have said, "Oh my god, look how extended

[49:49] this is above the 200 moving average."

[49:51] So, you get all those swing traders

[49:53] saying, "Oh my god, this is becoming a

[49:55] sell." Then you get all those day

[49:57] traders that are saying, "Oh my god,

[49:59] this has went too far, too fast." And

[50:01] so, it's aligning the confluence of all

[50:03] these nuances that really kind of make

[50:06] it happen.

[50:07] Yeah, that's super helpful. Uh and

[50:09] there's a kind of a similar following

[50:11] question from the short bear. Um what do

[50:13] you look for to really size up? What

[50:16] what are what are some of those nuances

[50:18] that would tell you this is an A++ setup

[50:21] and you'll commit more capital to that

[50:23] trade?

[50:24] Yeah, I mean, really we should have uh

[50:25] we should have Lucas answering that

[50:27] question as as the real goat. Um

[50:29] so, I think this is also where it's so

[50:31] important to be very systematic. Um

[50:35] The some people some people like

[50:37] systematizing, some people don't, but I

[50:38] think most people would be better moving

[50:40] further towards that. And I think what's

[50:43] so cool about those challenges I gave is

[50:46] it really forces traders to get things

[50:48] down on paper, right? So, what you can

[50:50] do if you want, you can you can write

[50:53] down for each trade category you have.

[50:55] Maybe it's breakouts, maybe it's mean

[50:56] reversion, uh maybe it's a breaking news

[50:58] catalyst. And what I would recommend you

[51:00] do is start to write all your different

[51:02] categories down, right? So, let's take

[51:04] breaking news.

[51:05] With breaking news, um

[51:08] we can have strength of the headline.

[51:11] How big is this headline potentially?

[51:13] You know, is it um

[51:14] something like they fired one employee

[51:17] or is it uh

[51:18] Workhorse saying, "We're screwed, it's

[51:20] the end of the world, it's over." Or is

[51:22] it Nvidia saying, "Guess what? AI is off

[51:25] the charts.

[51:26] Uh we're guiding up some huge massive

[51:29] amount." So, one variable is strength of

[51:31] the catalyst for this case. We can also

[51:34] say how in play is this ticker. Um

[51:38] something like gold on a big catalyst is

[51:40] not going to move anywhere close to an

[51:42] Nvidia, right? Gold I like to think is

[51:45] probably never never say never, but the

[51:47] odds of it having a 40% up day much

[51:49] lower. So, how in play or volatile is

[51:52] the stock? We can also do another

[51:54] variable. Is this stock breaking out

[51:57] into new prices? How many people do we

[51:59] have on our sides with those trends? Um

[52:02] what does the volume look like in this?

[52:05] How is the chart setting up so that I

[52:07] can have a tight stop, right? So, if I'm

[52:10] able to get that Nvidia on that headline

[52:13] and how I mentioned that reference price

[52:15] is defining trend, if I can get my stock

[52:18] really close to that reference price, if

[52:20] I can get that within five points,

[52:22] that's a way different trade than if

[52:24] it's 10 points away from that reference

[52:25] price. So, we start to have all these

[52:27] different variables, right? Maybe the

[52:29] stock has massive short interest. If it

[52:31] has massive short interest, I'm going to

[52:32] think that can go way, way higher,

[52:33] right? What is the positioning in the

[52:35] sentiment? Nvidia was a little bit

[52:39] overextended going into that, right?

[52:40] There were people that were very short

[52:42] that name. When that fundamental

[52:44] catalyst comes in and blows out that

[52:47] sentiment, oh my god, those people need

[52:50] to cover. And so, what I would urge

[52:52] people to do is take each of their trade

[52:55] categories, systematize all the

[52:57] different variables, rank them as far as

[52:59] importance, and so then when that trade

[53:01] comes, with more and more practice, you

[53:04] can know your most important variables,

[53:06] how strong that catalyst is on them, and

[53:09] then you can size it accordingly based

[53:10] on that. And so, there's a lot of people

[53:12] I know that crushed that Nvidia earnings

[53:14] headline because they knew all those

[53:16] variables and they did that work. And um

[53:19] so, I think that is what really helps

[53:21] people size. And but what I always say

[53:24] is do gradual, right? Do gradual and

[53:26] build up over time. You don't need to be

[53:28] a hero. Um the worst thing you can do is

[53:30] size up too much, take a big loss, and

[53:33] then take a step back cuz you're scared.

[53:34] Like, never push your comfort zone so

[53:36] much that a couple losses are going to

[53:38] demotivate or mess you up.

[53:40] Thank you, Lucas.

[53:42] Yeah.

[53:43] Awesome. Um

[53:45] There are a few questions about uh your

[53:47] your specific entry points. Um are they

[53:50] typically above uh it looks like this

[53:52] one, the two-bar high uh on that turn.

[53:54] How how do you decide basically that

[53:56] pivot point, that that that spot, that

[53:58] specific spot on the chart where you're

[54:00] going to enter your position?

[54:01] Yeah, so a lot of people ask me

[54:04] why do I use two-minute bar? Um

[54:07] it's not magic. Again, I personally view

[54:09] that that technicals are all fractals.

[54:11] You know, I can apply this to one

[54:13] minute, five minute, uh daily, week,

[54:15] month, year, whatever. It's all kind of

[54:17] the same. You're going to There's pros

[54:18] and cons to each. The reason why I use

[54:21] two-minute bars is simply because for me

[54:24] being a day trader, it was the right

[54:26] level of granularity and I was able to

[54:28] catch the type of leg that I wanted to

[54:31] catch, right? Uh it would be kind of

[54:33] silly to be a day trader and use like a

[54:35] monthly chart where I'm getting making

[54:37] an entry, then I don't do anything for

[54:39] the next month. It would kind of kind of

[54:40] defeat the purpose. And so, one thing

[54:44] that's interesting, especially with the

[54:45] mean reversion plays, is a lot of this

[54:49] stuff doesn't need to be backwards

[54:51] looking. And so often when stocks are

[54:53] really, really in play and melting,

[54:56] they're going to hold those prior bar

[54:57] lows. And so, when stocks are holding

[55:00] and trending the the sorry, prior bar

[55:03] lows or or the prior bar highs. In this

[55:05] case, the prior bar highs.

[55:06] Um

[55:07] So, in this case, you can without the

[55:10] benefit or let me rephrase that. You

[55:13] have the benefit of hindsight where in

[55:15] this moment in time, I can see that this

[55:17] stock's largely been holding uh prior

[55:20] bar highs. In that FRC chart that I

[55:23] gave, I have the benefit of hindsight

[55:26] where I can look and I can see that that

[55:27] stock on the way down is holding that. I

[55:29] don't need to know the rest. I know that

[55:31] this was trending down cleanly. In the

[55:33] GameStop example, that stock was melting

[55:37] and holding those prior bar highs. And

[55:39] so, in real time, I can recognize,

[55:41] "Whoa, this is making a really huge

[55:44] trend." And as it's trending, this is

[55:46] trending cleanly. Cleanly defined as

[55:48] holding that, right? Um and so, last

[55:52] week I posted this chart of of

[55:54] uh SDA, Sierra Delta Alpha. Made a

[55:57] beautiful clean trend

[55:59] um

[56:00] higher, kind of capitulated, and sure

[56:03] enough, it breaks and we hold this super

[56:05] clean trend down. And so many people

[56:07] say, "Oh, that's hindsight, that's

[56:08] hindsight." But it's not, right? Like,

[56:10] in real time, at that moment when it

[56:13] turns, I can see how huge that trend was

[56:16] and that it's not coincidental, right?

[56:18] That's the point. If you all trust me,

[56:21] I'm telling you that given something

[56:23] makes a huge in play trend lower

[56:25] cleanly, the probability of it turning

[56:28] cleanly is way, way, way higher than

[56:31] noise otherwise. And I think that's what

[56:33] people conceptually miss and that can be

[56:36] a very game-changing concept for people.

[56:39] Yeah, I think that's a key a key nugget

[56:41] there.

[56:42] Um I also saw a few questions about um

[56:45] how you decide to

[56:47] uh sell your position after it's moved

[56:49] up the right hand right hand side of the

[56:51] V. So, I hear I I see you've got a sell

[56:53] mark there. Uh did that take out a uh

[56:56] two-minute bar low or what what's

[56:58] basically your decision?

[56:59] Exactly. Yep, yep. And so,

[57:02] so for the most part, like, I do tend to

[57:05] intentionally simplify things for these

[57:08] presentations.

[57:09] Um

[57:10] the reality is my trading was a mix of

[57:12] system uh you know, and and science, but

[57:15] also a little bit of of an art. Um but I

[57:19] found when teaching people, right? I I

[57:21] probably, you know, had

[57:23] a handful of trainees, dozens of people

[57:25] I've I've mentored over the years. When

[57:26] you when teaching people, you want to

[57:28] give people the simplest system possible

[57:31] to remove discretion and to make in real

[57:33] time when all this is happening as easy

[57:35] as possible. So, when I would train

[57:37] people, I would say, "Look, this is your

[57:39] rule. Your your trailing stop is going

[57:41] to be those two-minute bar lows in this

[57:42] example." And they're going to Then

[57:45] they'll see my trading, they'll be like,

[57:46] "Lance, why'd you take a little off

[57:47] here? Or why'd you do that?"

[57:50] And it's like, "Look, that's part of the

[57:51] art." And so, to give people a simple

[57:53] rule of when

[57:55] um

[57:56] there might be the exception to my

[57:57] normal one is if something, let's say

[58:00] I'm riding a trend higher and then it

[58:03] capitulates in my favor, if something's

[58:05] capitulating and getting euphoric and

[58:07] it's pulling away from that trend, I

[58:09] might take off some or even all. So, on

[58:11] Twitter, I have a um a write-up of this

[58:14] like MSTR, Carvana, uh tech panic day

[58:17] last year, I think in May. And I

[58:19] discussed why I sold

[58:21] um my MSTR into kind of a upside

[58:24] capitulation. So, in general, I try to

[58:27] simply either use the level and and and

[58:32] then that prior bar trailer, but look,

[58:35] there are exceptions and it's the

[58:37] simplest one I can give is if something

[58:39] capitulates in my favor and gets

[58:40] overextended, I'll definitely start to

[58:42] take some off.

[58:43] Yeah, I think I think perfect, that's

[58:45] helpful. Uh another good question from

[58:47] the short bear. Um how does Lance

[58:49] include sentiment into a capitulation

[58:51] trade? Uh does he wait until everyone is

[58:54] vocally on one side?

[58:56] Yeah, so I think um

[58:59] I think sentiment is so important. And

[59:01] so, what I what I really get people at

[59:04] SMB to do or or really anyone I work

[59:06] with is to have a running dialogue

[59:09] in your head of of where sentiment might

[59:13] lie. So, let's say um

[59:16] And again, you can use any scale you

[59:17] want, but let's let's say like

[59:20] zero is neutral. The stock is just dead

[59:22] flat doing nothing. And let's say

[59:25] positive 10 is bullish, slope of one,

[59:29] like very sustainably bullish. And let's

[59:31] say 20 is like euphoric where it's it's

[59:33] so bullish like you don't even want to

[59:35] be long anymore. And vice versa, bullish

[59:38] negative slope of one is -10, then just

[59:42] like pure puking panic end of the world

[59:44] is -20. I try to always have a running

[59:47] dialogue of of what the stock, whether

[59:50] it's um the intraday chart, whether it's

[59:53] the daily chart, whether it's reading

[59:55] the tape, right? So, if something is -1,

[59:59] I keep in mind well, Lance, like okay,

[01:00:01] this is this is steady bearish. Um if

[01:00:04] I'm doing a mean reversion, I want every

[01:00:06] chart to really become the -20 panicking

[01:00:10] puking everyone's scared. And that's so

[01:00:12] important cuz what happens is when

[01:00:14] everyone's being liquidated, when

[01:00:15] everyone's scared, that leaves

[01:00:17] everything so skewed the other way. An

[01:00:19] example of that is the the Tesla chart

[01:00:22] that I went over, right? Like when when

[01:00:25] Tesla goes from 300 holding up strong

[01:00:28] and then boom, it goes to 100 in a

[01:00:30] matter of a month or two, everyone's

[01:00:31] saying, "Oh my god, this is the end."

[01:00:33] Blah blah blah blah blah. If anyone's

[01:00:35] going to panic, they're going to panic

[01:00:37] then. And what happens is you get this

[01:00:38] massive volume turnover. And at that

[01:00:42] peak sentiment moment, you get people

[01:00:44] establishing new prices, right? So, all

[01:00:46] those people that are puking their

[01:00:48] shares at 100, you get this whole new

[01:00:50] wave of buyers that are now new longs.

[01:00:53] And that leaves this very asymmetric

[01:00:55] thing as far as the market participants.

[01:00:58] And so, I'd say I'm always trying to

[01:01:00] think like

[01:01:01] where is sentiment and am I trading it

[01:01:03] correctly, right? Like if if something

[01:01:06] ever becomes, you know, positive 15 or

[01:01:09] close to positive 20 where it's euphoric

[01:01:11] and I'm long, I recognize I need to get

[01:01:13] out. That's where I might start to

[01:01:14] scaling some out. So, like that's also a

[01:01:17] really good task for people is to have

[01:01:19] this internal dialogue that as these

[01:01:21] charts are moving, you're constantly

[01:01:23] saying like, "Okay, you know, we're

[01:01:24] consolidating, you know, we're actually

[01:01:26] holding up like really really well. So,

[01:01:28] we might even be, you know, positive

[01:01:30] three, positive four, like up, we break

[01:01:32] out. How strongly, how quickly are we

[01:01:34] going? Is it a sustainable breakout? Are

[01:01:36] we kind of puttering around? And like

[01:01:38] that dialogue is is really important to

[01:01:41] help you um kind of gain a a sense of

[01:01:44] this. And it's all based on like that

[01:01:45] sentiment.

[01:01:47] Yeah, great. And a question I want to

[01:01:49] ask you was

[01:01:51] after you've identified a a you know, a

[01:01:53] stock that you you see it's flushing

[01:01:55] down, you're looking for that mean

[01:01:56] reversion trade,

[01:01:58] what are you specifically doing as

[01:02:01] you're watching it develop that setup

[01:02:03] where you're waiting for the turn? Uh

[01:02:05] what what kind of mental processes are

[01:02:07] you going through to prepare yourself

[01:02:08] for the trade? And what are you

[01:02:10] physically doing? Are you setting alerts

[01:02:12] right below uh those highs as it's

[01:02:14] flushing down? Just kind of walk me

[01:02:16] through, you know,

[01:02:17] as you're right ready to prepare for a

[01:02:19] trade, what what are you going through?

[01:02:21] What steps are you taking?

[01:02:22] Totally. So, so one

[01:02:24] one simple thing I would do is um

[01:02:27] I I would use 100 shares for this, but

[01:02:30] like the more important point is

[01:02:32] like you can use one share or what

[01:02:34] whatever is going to be kind of a

[01:02:35] rounding error for you. So, from one of

[01:02:37] the prior questions, I talked about

[01:02:39] having a watch list of stocks down the

[01:02:40] most. And so, what I will always do is

[01:02:44] if markets are weak and things are

[01:02:45] panicking, I'm going to throw like I

[01:02:48] would do 100 shares, but again, you can

[01:02:49] use one share, like 100 was just, you

[01:02:52] know, pretty small. But like I would

[01:02:54] throw these limit orders way deep uh low

[01:02:58] in the market where I might be

[01:03:00] interested if a stock really really

[01:03:01] panicked, right? Cuz some of these opens

[01:03:03] can be really hectic or some of these

[01:03:05] trading days when stocks are panicking.

[01:03:07] So, I always try to have like a little

[01:03:09] kind of just just starter position way

[01:03:12] below the market where it's like if this

[01:03:13] gets filled like, "Okay, Lance, you need

[01:03:15] to watch your attention." And so, when

[01:03:17] these moves are happening, I'm really

[01:03:19] just going through that checklist,

[01:03:21] right? So, I can avoid the Tesla losses.

[01:03:23] And so, I'm not falling into the trap.

[01:03:25] And it sounds silly like at at this

[01:03:28] point, I don't need a checklist just

[01:03:30] because I've

[01:03:31] done it so many times. But when I was

[01:03:33] learning and developing these skills, I

[01:03:35] would do the system uh systematizing of

[01:03:37] everything like I described in this

[01:03:39] presentation. And I would build this

[01:03:40] little checklist. And on my on my desk,

[01:03:43] I'd have all these little note cards.

[01:03:44] Okay, if this is going to be um mean

[01:03:46] reversion countertrend play, this is my

[01:03:48] checklist. If it's breaking news, this

[01:03:50] is my checklist. If it's a breakout,

[01:03:52] this is my checklist. Um and when these

[01:03:55] things are panicking, I'd just be

[01:03:56] rereading that and going through that

[01:03:58] and going through that cuz that allows

[01:04:00] you it helps you make

[01:04:01] uh

[01:04:02] or avoid unforced errors. And so, it's

[01:04:05] it's so important to know that criteria

[01:04:07] dead cold cuz I think so many people end

[01:04:09] up falling for these traps because they

[01:04:11] don't do the work to know what

[01:04:13] everything is. They're not conscious

[01:04:15] like to build this awareness and this

[01:04:17] consciousness, you need to be drilling

[01:04:19] yourself in real time. It needs to be

[01:04:20] the stream of consciousness in your head

[01:04:22] to help you avoid those errors. And if

[01:04:24] that means having a little paper

[01:04:25] checklist that you're running through as

[01:04:27] you're typing these and you have your

[01:04:29] little alerts lower, it's it's it's so

[01:04:31] important, you know? And like any little

[01:04:33] mantra um

[01:04:35] you know, like

[01:04:36] on these big days, I'd have on my my

[01:04:38] daily report card, you know, wait for

[01:04:40] the turn, wait for the turn, wait for

[01:04:41] the turn, you know, live with the trend

[01:04:43] because it's it's that internal dialogue

[01:04:45] is essential when the pressure's on. You

[01:04:47] need to um perform in this this this

[01:04:49] game moves fast.

[01:04:51] And it sounds like some of those steps

[01:04:53] are to, you know, really make sure

[01:04:55] you're being disciplined and help with

[01:04:57] the mental side, too, so you're you're

[01:04:58] confident and ready when you finally do

[01:05:01] get the turn that you're waiting for.

[01:05:02] Yep. And your your job during the day is

[01:05:05] really just

[01:05:06] the real progress and work happens after

[01:05:09] hours. During the day, if you're

[01:05:12] decently experienced, your job's to

[01:05:13] execute. And part of executing is making

[01:05:15] sure like if you've got the system and

[01:05:17] this game plan, your sole job is is to

[01:05:20] follow it and make sure you follow it.

[01:05:22] It's not to think about what tweaks can

[01:05:24] I make. It's not to be studying other

[01:05:26] stuff. When when you're playing the

[01:05:28] game, right? You know, like if you're

[01:05:29] playing in in the pros in the NBA,

[01:05:32] nobody's thinking about tape uh and and

[01:05:34] what they're going to do and what drills

[01:05:35] they're going to do. They're just

[01:05:36] saying, "I need to execute. This is what

[01:05:38] I need to execute. This is our game plan

[01:05:40] to win this game." You know, and when

[01:05:41] the when when they heat play tonight,

[01:05:44] right? That's what they're going to be

[01:05:45] thinking about is just what are the

[01:05:47] things that we decided is going to make

[01:05:49] this a success. I need to keep that

[01:05:51] front of mind. I need to not get

[01:05:53] emotional. I need to not get FOMO. I

[01:05:54] need to not worry about the scoreboard.

[01:05:56] I need to execute based on what we

[01:05:58] decided.

[01:05:59] Yeah, perfect. Um there's some other

[01:06:01] really good questions coming in. Uh

[01:06:03] first from

[01:06:06] uh this person, "After capitulation,

[01:06:08] sometimes the low is breached before the

[01:06:10] real move happens. Uh does Lance set a

[01:06:12] stop at prior bar low or does he give it

[01:06:15] a little bit more room?" So, I guess in

[01:06:16] the circumstance where you've got that

[01:06:18] capitulation, maybe a structure forms

[01:06:20] there, it undercuts a little bit, and

[01:06:22] then takes off. How do you kind of

[01:06:23] handle that situation? Yeah, so that's

[01:06:25] that's a great question. And well, I

[01:06:28] think most will have a great point to

[01:06:29] make on this is um

[01:06:33] I'm always getting out at at my stop if

[01:06:36] that gets breached, right? It's just

[01:06:38] again, it goes back to that risk

[01:06:39] management. Even if I think like, "Oh my

[01:06:41] god, could this stock really do another

[01:06:43] leg?" So often, if those lows are

[01:06:45] getting breached, the answer is yes. And

[01:06:48] I think the the more important

[01:06:51] point here is

[01:06:54] if you're in the really really best

[01:06:56] setups,

[01:06:57] your win rate goes up.

[01:07:00] And so yeah, I'm not saying like that

[01:07:01] never happens where you kind of just get

[01:07:03] just just whipped wicked out and and and

[01:07:06] then it kind of just goes. Like I tend

[01:07:08] to if if I end up missing that, kind of

[01:07:11] so be it. But like

[01:07:13] the best thing I I would equate is I I

[01:07:16] like using poker analogies. Sometimes

[01:07:18] you might have what you think are pocket

[01:07:19] aces and it just it just doesn't work.

[01:07:22] It kind of gets whipped out. Like at

[01:07:24] that point, that's the equivalent of

[01:07:26] like, you know,

[01:07:28] jack queen, you know,

[01:07:31] 10 or something coming on the board and

[01:07:32] you're just like, "Oh no, my hand looked

[01:07:34] awesome, but if anybody just caught

[01:07:36] three of a pair, if anybody just caught

[01:07:37] a straight, now I'm in trouble." And so,

[01:07:40] I tend to not beat myself up too much

[01:07:42] when I get stopped out. But what I will

[01:07:44] say is the absolute best trades where

[01:07:47] everything is aligning in your favor, so

[01:07:50] so often, you avoid those situations

[01:07:53] because it's just everybody's

[01:07:55] recognizing, "Oh my god, that was a

[01:07:57] flush out. That was a panic." And you're

[01:07:58] gone. And it allows really this cushion

[01:08:01] in your trading where like when prices

[01:08:04] move so fast and the volume is just so

[01:08:06] high, you really tend to avoid a lot of

[01:08:08] those little chop outs. Like um again,

[01:08:11] I'm not saying it never happens, but in

[01:08:12] the really best setups where when you

[01:08:14] have your variables, you're like, "Up,

[01:08:16] this was eight out of 10, eight out of

[01:08:17] 10, nine out of 10, 10 out of 10." Most

[01:08:19] of them tend to just be gone. And um

[01:08:22] it's it's not coincidental when you when

[01:08:25] you go through the data like that.

[01:08:27] Yeah. Yeah, perfect. Uh there's another

[01:08:29] good question here um from Alan. Uh does

[01:08:33] Lance have any tips for overtrading or

[01:08:35] having having the confidence to wait for

[01:08:38] proper setups? I think overtrading, you

[01:08:39] know, is an issue that a lot lot of

[01:08:41] traders deal with. So, yeah, what what

[01:08:43] are your thoughts on that and how how

[01:08:45] how would you encourage patience and the

[01:08:47] ability to wait for those A+ eight out

[01:08:49] of 10, nine out of 10, 10 out of 10

[01:08:50] setups? Yep, so this is this is a big

[01:08:53] one. I've done a really good tweet, I

[01:08:54] think, on this. So, if you advanced

[01:08:56] search um the one Lance on Twitter

[01:08:58] overtrading, but essentially what I say

[01:09:01] is the number one thing

[01:09:03] like not the number one, but the first

[01:09:05] step is to figure out why are you

[01:09:06] overtrading? What what leads to that?

[01:09:09] Not just what the trades you're doing

[01:09:11] because like if if a trade falls into

[01:09:13] your system and you take it and it

[01:09:16] doesn't work, that's not overtrading,

[01:09:17] right? That's just your system needs

[01:09:19] refinement. Overtrading is where you're

[01:09:22] trading things that are not in your

[01:09:23] system. And then the question is, is

[01:09:25] that because you don't know clearly what

[01:09:28] is and is not in your playbook? Is that

[01:09:30] because you're getting FOMO? Is that

[01:09:32] because you're trading out of boredom?

[01:09:34] Is that because you're trying to make

[01:09:36] something happen when it's not there? Is

[01:09:38] that because somebody else in your chat

[01:09:40] room is involved in it and they're good

[01:09:41] trader, but it's not in your playbook?

[01:09:43] So, the first step is to really diagnose

[01:09:46] why why are you getting involved in

[01:09:48] these setups? Yes or no, are they in

[01:09:50] your playbook or not? Then, once you've

[01:09:52] dissected them, you need to find the

[01:09:54] commonalities. Um

[01:09:56] one thing at SMB Capital is, you know,

[01:09:59] there's there's a lot of great

[01:10:00] collaboration and everything, but for so

[01:10:02] often, especially once traders have some

[01:10:04] experience under their belt, it's it's I

[01:10:06] find it these traders don't recognize

[01:10:08] that like they've reached the point

[01:10:10] where they just need to trust

[01:10:11] themselves. And they might get involved

[01:10:13] because the the ticker is in play or

[01:10:15] because someone else is involved. And

[01:10:16] it's like, "No, you're at the point in

[01:10:18] your career where it's time to go

[01:10:20] without the training wheels and just

[01:10:21] trust yourself. And they're they haven't

[01:10:25] recognized that yet. And that's actually

[01:10:26] what's slowing them down is they're

[01:10:28] still making

[01:10:30] they don't need to key themselves off to

[01:10:32] others. They can trust themselves now.

[01:10:34] And so then once you've figured out why,

[01:10:36] the most important step is to then build

[01:10:40] systems to avoid that.

[01:10:42] So, what does that look like? It might

[01:10:44] be, "Okay, how can I reduce FOMO? How

[01:10:46] can I reduce noise?"

[01:10:48] Maybe you only allow yourself a certain

[01:10:50] number of of trades. In slower markets,

[01:10:52] what I would do is I would call it the

[01:10:53] three golden bullets.

[01:10:55] I have a friend that that ended up doing

[01:10:57] this and he has like he's kind of like a

[01:10:59] gun fan and he has like little literal

[01:11:01] bullets. He's like, "I get three of

[01:11:02] these a day. I only get more if my three

[01:11:04] trades were all in my playbook and

[01:11:06] everything else." And so, there's little

[01:11:08] rules you can make or little literal

[01:11:11] systems you can put in place to avoid

[01:11:13] the cues that make you make these

[01:11:15] mistakes. If you tend to do 10 trades

[01:11:18] during lunch, okay, maybe it's time to

[01:11:20] just like step away, eat lunch, keep an

[01:11:23] eye on the market just in case anything

[01:11:24] crazy happens.

[01:11:26] You know, maybe if you've lost twice in

[01:11:28] a ticker and you tend to overtrade at

[01:11:30] that point, maybe you can just

[01:11:32] you know, X out, you know, do zero share

[01:11:35] tear that that ticker.

[01:11:37] So, that final step is really once

[01:11:39] you've identified why you're doing it,

[01:11:41] how can I build a system that allows me

[01:11:43] to to avoid this?

[01:11:46] Yeah, excellent. And earlier you

[01:11:48] mentioned the daily report card at

[01:11:50] Trillium.

[01:11:52] Could you dive into some of the criteria

[01:11:55] that was a part of that report card?

[01:11:57] What what what would you grade yourself

[01:11:59] on every day? And maybe just you know,

[01:12:01] as a larger topic, the importance of

[01:12:03] having something like this and and the

[01:12:05] importance of journaling and tracking

[01:12:06] everything. Yeah, yeah, great question.

[01:12:09] If there's any super easy thing people

[01:12:12] can do to start elevating their game,

[01:12:13] like this is this is another great

[01:12:15] thing. So, I've posted on Twitter and

[01:12:18] I've even done an SMB Capital video on

[01:12:20] this.

[01:12:21] It's kind of I think Mike kind of really

[01:12:23] got the trend going for a lot of this.

[01:12:25] But I've shared my template of what my

[01:12:26] daily report card looked like. I would

[01:12:28] fill this out every single day without

[01:12:31] exception. And people people take this

[01:12:33] up on FinTwit, they'll do it for a week,

[01:12:35] they'll do it for a month, they fall

[01:12:36] off. I did this for years, never ever

[01:12:39] missing a day. Right? And so, first

[01:12:42] thing is the daily report card consists

[01:12:44] of one

[01:12:45] most important thing you're working on

[01:12:48] to elevate your game. For me, like I

[01:12:50] said many times, it was I am going to

[01:12:52] live with the trend. Every trend I do

[01:12:54] today well is my goal is to make it not

[01:12:57] fighting the trend.

[01:12:59] And then you also have your rules and

[01:13:01] your system for how you're going to

[01:13:02] follow that. You know, maybe it means I

[01:13:05] need to wait for prior bar highs, I need

[01:13:07] to do this, I need to do that. I'm going

[01:13:08] to be conscious in the trade.

[01:13:10] Um

[01:13:11] And then, so what you grade yourself

[01:13:13] each day is whether you followed it's

[01:13:16] not whether you made money or not. You

[01:13:18] grade yourself on whether you followed

[01:13:20] that objective. So, if it was trading

[01:13:22] with the trend, I might give myself an A

[01:13:24] if every trend followed with it. And

[01:13:26] then it would also include kind of

[01:13:28] you can make it however you want, but I

[01:13:30] would include a detailed write-up of

[01:13:32] each important chart that day, only the

[01:13:34] best ones. It also include during the

[01:13:36] day I would do a pre-market temp check,

[01:13:39] meaning like am I well rested? Am I

[01:13:41] focused? Or am I feeling FOMO? Am I

[01:13:44] sick? Am I under the weather? Am I

[01:13:45] frustrated? Am I in a hole? And that

[01:13:48] would actually dictate how much I might

[01:13:50] risk that day. So, if the market's super

[01:13:52] in play and I'm feeling great and I've

[01:13:55] been trading really well, I'm going to

[01:13:56] push my risk that day. And each

[01:13:59] every couple hours I would check in and

[01:14:02] kind of do

[01:14:03] just I would take a a mental break and

[01:14:05] say like, "Okay, have I been following

[01:14:07] my rules?

[01:14:09] Have I risked the amounts I should be

[01:14:10] risking? Have I avoided what I should be

[01:14:11] avoiding?" And this just it's all a tool

[01:14:14] to really increase consciousness and

[01:14:16] awareness each day and to make forward

[01:14:18] progress. Cuz so many people slog around

[01:14:20] aimlessly. When every single day I want

[01:14:23] it to be better even if just a little

[01:14:25] bit than the prior day. And so, no day

[01:14:28] would go by where I didn't analyze the

[01:14:29] charts and figure out some way to make

[01:14:31] myself better and really do the deep

[01:14:33] review work.

[01:14:34] Yeah, I was going to ask a follow-up on

[01:14:36] that. Of the trades you do take or the

[01:14:38] ones you didn't take, but you should

[01:14:40] have, what type of post analysis do you

[01:14:42] do to, you know, take away something

[01:14:44] from that trade so you can be a little

[01:14:46] bit better the next time the next time

[01:14:47] that situation arises?

[01:14:49] Yep, so I was I was a real active

[01:14:51] trader. I might trade on an active day

[01:14:54] 25-30 tickers, maybe maybe five to 10 on

[01:14:57] a slower one. So, it would just be

[01:14:59] impractical impractical and not the most

[01:15:01] value for me to write up every single

[01:15:03] one. So, I would really find like what

[01:15:06] are the standout tickers, whether I

[01:15:08] traded them or not. Like some people are

[01:15:10] like, "Oh, should I study my missed

[01:15:11] trades?" And it's just like, "Well, do

[01:15:13] you ever want to hit them in the

[01:15:14] future?" Yeah, you know, I I would I

[01:15:16] would I would hope so. And so, whatever

[01:15:18] the big tickers were, I would I would

[01:15:21] use Evernote, but people use all Notion,

[01:15:23] whatever, there's all sorts of things.

[01:15:25] I would take the chart. I would annotate

[01:15:27] the chart with with what the proper

[01:15:29] entries were, any other notes I wanted

[01:15:31] to notice. And then I would do a very

[01:15:33] detailed write-up. The more important

[01:15:35] the play was, like if this was

[01:15:37] potentially a play of the year or a play

[01:15:39] of the month, that is going to get a

[01:15:40] multi-paragraph deep study for me. If it

[01:15:43] was like if it was a slow day, but hey,

[01:15:45] this was the one op I could have made

[01:15:47] 5K, 10K, you know, maybe it gets a

[01:15:49] little paragraph. If I'm if I'm burnt

[01:15:51] out or lazy, look, maybe I'm just going

[01:15:53] to clip the chart at the least. This

[01:15:56] stuff does not take a lot of time. And

[01:15:57] the beauty of it was then

[01:16:00] over the course of years, I had this

[01:16:02] amazing database. I have if I look back

[01:16:04] in my Evernote, I have the 2021 top ops.

[01:16:07] I have the 2020 top ops. And 2019. I can

[01:16:10] go back all these years and find like

[01:16:13] the 20, 30, 40, 50 best charts of each

[01:16:16] year. And to be able to run through that

[01:16:18] and get reps and restudy that, it's just

[01:16:20] such an effective effective way of

[01:16:22] studying. It's incredible.

[01:16:25] Yeah, and you know, obviously just like

[01:16:27] creating that resource for yourself,

[01:16:29] that's going to cement in your mind

[01:16:30] exactly what you're looking for and help

[01:16:32] build that intuition.

[01:16:32] 100%. Even if you never review it ever

[01:16:34] again, it's it's in there. Exactly.

[01:16:38] There's a really good question from a

[01:16:39] read.

[01:16:41] Lance, do you trade this type of

[01:16:43] capitulation trade if it seems to occur

[01:16:45] during lunch hours?

[01:16:46] What time period of the market provides

[01:16:48] the best outcomes for capitulation trade

[01:16:51] setups?

[01:16:52] Yep, great question.

[01:16:54] Um I think with without a shadow of a

[01:16:57] doubt, the most capitulation tends to

[01:16:59] occur

[01:17:00] off the open. Why is that?

[01:17:03] The reason why is obviously a lot of

[01:17:05] stuff happens overnight and the market

[01:17:09] really hasn't had the price discovery

[01:17:11] mechanism until that open. So, so often

[01:17:13] what might happen is news comes out or

[01:17:15] the market panics overnight, the

[01:17:17] market's gapping down two, three, four

[01:17:19] percent. And yeah, like the the indices

[01:17:21] and the futures have been able to trade,

[01:17:23] but if you're trying to um

[01:17:25] panic out of I know Tesla made this

[01:17:27] great panic on some of the when the

[01:17:29] Russia-Ukraine war was escalating. And

[01:17:32] it's like, "Look, if

[01:17:34] if this stuff escalates overnight, you

[01:17:36] don't have the chance to sell your

[01:17:37] Tesla. You might be able to sell Qs or

[01:17:40] whatever, but you can't sell the Tesla."

[01:17:42] And so, off the open is where

[01:17:45] you tend to get the most flush out.

[01:17:47] You tend to get the most people that

[01:17:48] need to to liquidate. Um

[01:17:51] So, I would say the open's definitely

[01:17:53] the best. One thing that you do need to

[01:17:55] be wary of, especially midday,

[01:17:56] especially around the lunch hour,

[01:17:59] is most stocks are kind of range bound

[01:18:01] and consolidating then. And so, if a

[01:18:03] stock is doing some weird move around

[01:18:05] lunch, I would be a little worried. Is

[01:18:08] there news out there? Right? Cuz I I'm

[01:18:10] really trying to do this in stocks

[01:18:11] without news. So, it's one thing if the

[01:18:13] whole market's rolling over and

[01:18:14] everything's flushing out. If it's just

[01:18:16] one stock doing this this this kind of

[01:18:19] idiosyncratic move, um

[01:18:22] I'm extra cautious of making sure

[01:18:24] there's no news. I guess that would be

[01:18:25] my one warning. Then of course we tend

[01:18:28] to also get panics into the close,

[01:18:30] especially if there's like big Fed days

[01:18:31] or big panics or in 2020.

[01:18:34] The open and the close

[01:18:36] tend to be

[01:18:37] pools of liquidity, especially the

[01:18:39] close. So, those are kind of the times

[01:18:42] where you I think you're most likely

[01:18:43] statistically to see them.

[01:18:45] And if there's a major announcement

[01:18:48] that's going to be coming on, you know,

[01:18:50] Fed minutes, something similar to that,

[01:18:52] what do you do to prepare for that

[01:18:54] event?

[01:18:55] How do you basically do you have a list

[01:18:57] of tickers that you're ready to go to if

[01:18:59] there's a flush, a potential for a mean

[01:19:01] reversion play? What what's kind of your

[01:19:02] process for prepping for a potential,

[01:19:04] you know, game-changing news event? Yep,

[01:19:06] sure. So, for most news things I want to

[01:19:09] I want to be with the trend. So, with

[01:19:11] the Fed

[01:19:13] or any any big kind of even call it like

[01:19:15] CPI, whatever else, any any macro event,

[01:19:18] any news catalyst, I'm largely thinking

[01:19:20] how can I go with this trend?

[01:19:22] What are the tickers that are going to

[01:19:23] be in play?

[01:19:25] And and there's essentially two ways,

[01:19:27] right? Well, not really two ways,

[01:19:28] there's many ways, but the two big

[01:19:30] things I look for is first the breaking

[01:19:32] news headline. Will the Fed say anything

[01:19:34] offsides? First of all, you need to

[01:19:36] properly know what is offsides. Um,

[01:19:38] where does sentiment lie going into

[01:19:40] this? Have stocks really really run up

[01:19:42] expecting um, one message? What would be

[01:19:45] the offsides for where the market's

[01:19:47] positioned? We talked about that

[01:19:48] pendulum again, like the question Lucas

[01:19:50] asked. If stocks are maybe like a 13 or

[01:19:53] a 14, we're starting to get a little

[01:19:55] euphoric into this meeting, and then the

[01:19:58] Feds just rug pull everyone? I am going

[01:20:00] to be super prepared to go really

[01:20:02] aggressive on that short. Um, so that

[01:20:05] breaking news headline is the first way

[01:20:07] I might play it. The second way is

[01:20:09] waiting for something to set up where we

[01:20:11] make that initial move, we then have a

[01:20:14] really nice consolidation, and then I

[01:20:15] want to find the stocks holding up the

[01:20:17] most. What are the stocks that made the

[01:20:19] really big move, but then are barely

[01:20:21] pulling back, consolidating super tight?

[01:20:23] I don't want to play it in there

[01:20:25] because that I consider the range bound

[01:20:27] consolidation, but boom, once they break

[01:20:29] out, I might want to hop on and really

[01:20:30] look for that um, that move. I really

[01:20:33] won't

[01:20:36] For me to fade and do mean reversion

[01:20:38] with a catalyst, especially something

[01:20:40] like the Fed, CPI, whatever, it would

[01:20:42] need to be really really um,

[01:20:44] exceptional. Meaning, okay, the market's

[01:20:46] going from 2% to Qs plus three, and

[01:20:49] something just really capitulated to

[01:20:51] like plus 10%. I would need a huge uh, a

[01:20:54] huge spread versus the market for me to

[01:20:57] want to um,

[01:20:58] get involved. It would need to be a a

[01:21:00] real big flush out on on either side.

[01:21:03] Yeah, perfect. Just have a few more

[01:21:04] questions here. Uh,

[01:21:06] first um,

[01:21:08] let's see. I I saw a good question here.

[01:21:11] Um, oh, oh, here here's what it was, I

[01:21:13] remember it. So,

[01:21:15] how would you classify the types of

[01:21:17] setups you trade the most? Um, and of

[01:21:20] those, which which is kind of your

[01:21:22] preference, which you tend to trade the

[01:21:23] most? And uh, what's like uh, your most

[01:21:27] profitable type of setup?

[01:21:29] Yeah, that's a great question. Um,

[01:21:32] so

[01:21:33] I I had a lot of I know I get kind of

[01:21:36] pigeonholed into things um, rightly so,

[01:21:38] but I kind of really traded everything

[01:21:40] from from from merger arbs to

[01:21:42] imbalances, from low floats, mean

[01:21:44] reversion, with the trend, uh, breaking

[01:21:47] news, swings. So, I really did a lot of

[01:21:49] everything, but the the bread and butter

[01:21:52] would probably have been um,

[01:21:56] probably the mean reversion plays when

[01:21:59] things did panic or or that would have

[01:22:02] to be number one just cuz there were

[01:22:04] some really crazy days, whether it's

[01:22:05] like a GM GME AMC panic or during the

[01:22:08] COVID panics or some of the flash

[01:22:09] crashes. So, that was huge. Breaking

[01:22:12] news would probably have to be my second

[01:22:14] category. Um, I don't think I was

[01:22:16] probably

[01:22:18] the

[01:22:19] I think I was probably one of the best

[01:22:20] in the world at the capitulations. I I

[01:22:22] think I was probably

[01:22:24] There were there were a couple people

[01:22:25] better than me with the breaking news,

[01:22:27] but I was pretty damn good and would

[01:22:29] just do the size. So, I think that's

[01:22:30] number two for me. And um,

[01:22:34] a lot I would also say depends the

[01:22:36] market. Like what I really talk about is

[01:22:38] is is um,

[01:22:41] finding the broken slot machine and like

[01:22:43] not getting too stuck in your ways. So,

[01:22:45] there's some years where you have

[01:22:46] certain themes, right? Last year was

[01:22:48] CPI. This year is uh, banking crisis.

[01:22:50] 2020 and 2021 were meme stocks. 2000 Was

[01:22:54] it 18 or 19 where the Trump tariffs? But

[01:22:56] you always have these themes that are

[01:22:58] really driving markets and the biggest

[01:22:59] moves, and I really want to move to

[01:23:02] wherever that volatility is. Like I saw

[01:23:05] I saw so many people say, oh, stick to

[01:23:07] one product and one type of thing, you

[01:23:08] know, watch gold trade every single day.

[01:23:10] It's like you can watch gold trade every

[01:23:13] single day, but let me let me break you

[01:23:14] the bad news. 99% of the time GLD

[01:23:17] spiders, all these super liquid

[01:23:19] efficient instruments, 99% of the time

[01:23:22] it's noise. I'd rather find like the 1%

[01:23:25] in play thing each day and study that,

[01:23:27] and you're going to learn so much

[01:23:28] faster. And so, every year I try to ask

[01:23:31] myself, what is the theme? What is the

[01:23:33] market offering the most reward trade?

[01:23:36] Some years are hot IPO years. You want

[01:23:38] to know what I do that year? I'm an IPO

[01:23:39] trader that year, right? Cuz that's

[01:23:41] what's in play, right? You know, there's

[01:23:43] been uh, like when Fiverr IPO'd or

[01:23:45] Alibaba or when those Chinese IPOs were

[01:23:47] were were going nuts. Like you need to

[01:23:49] find whatever's in play, and that's what

[01:23:51] I'm going to adapt myself to. And so

[01:23:53] many people are like, oh, I've never

[01:23:54] traded um, CPI before. Well, guess what?

[01:23:57] Nobody has. CPI was never in play. And

[01:24:00] the people that did the best were the

[01:24:02] people that recognized CPI's going to be

[01:24:05] the theme this year. I'm going to adapt

[01:24:08] to this as quick as possible, and

[01:24:10] because they're adapting faster, they're

[01:24:11] able to hit it harder before the trade

[01:24:14] goes out of play, right? Cuz the the

[01:24:15] more attention and attraction you get,

[01:24:17] boom, starts to become more efficient

[01:24:19] and out of play. Um,

[01:24:20] I don't know what the next theme will

[01:24:21] be. Um, this year was clearly financial

[01:24:23] crisis, and a lot of that was you had

[01:24:25] huge breaking news headlines, you had

[01:24:27] huge capitulations. Um, you know, I'm

[01:24:30] trading all of that. But whatever's

[01:24:32] whatever's the crazy thing, um,

[01:24:34] you know, as I like to say, whether it's

[01:24:35] socks or stocks, I'm going to be there.

[01:24:38] Perfect. And do you have any tips for,

[01:24:40] you know, helping identify that theme

[01:24:42] early for, you know, paying attention

[01:24:43] and being ready?

[01:24:45] I think being open-minded. Um,

[01:24:48] you never really know where it could be,

[01:24:50] but I think like if you're open-minded,

[01:24:52] it's

[01:24:53] it's not really a secret. Um,

[01:24:56] you know, what are they talking about on

[01:24:57] CNBC? They were talking about CPI all of

[01:24:59] last year. Uh, the banking crisis. Uh,

[01:25:02] if I had to take a guess what might be

[01:25:04] the next theme, like we could be seeing

[01:25:05] AI now just with the Nvidia. And you

[01:25:07] don't necessarily need to be like

[01:25:10] Nostradamus predicting all this stuff,

[01:25:12] right? Like yeah, you can sometimes take

[01:25:15] a guess. Um, but but a lot of times like

[01:25:17] trends don't last a day or a week. Like

[01:25:19] I can see that Nvidia earnings and I can

[01:25:21] be like, oh my, you know, AI could

[01:25:23] become the the the theme for the rest of

[01:25:25] the year. Um, so it's it's not so much

[01:25:27] about being some Some people are great

[01:25:29] at that. Like I know a couple traders

[01:25:31] that are incredible um, predictors, like

[01:25:34] like this dude Raff, but like it it's

[01:25:37] for for normal folk folk like me, I just

[01:25:39] keep my head on a swivel, and um, look,

[01:25:41] AI could be next or it could be some

[01:25:43] idiosyncratic black swan. Uh, you know,

[01:25:46] like who saw COVID? Nobody, right? Um,

[01:25:48] but when that happens, you got to just

[01:25:50] keep your head on and and pay attention

[01:25:52] to what people are talking about.

[01:25:54] Yeah, great. Uh, Lance, just one more

[01:25:56] question before we wrap up. Uh, this has

[01:25:57] been fantastic. Um,

[01:25:59] how do you handle uh, halts in stocks

[01:26:02] that you're trading? Um, how do you how

[01:26:04] do you analyze that when it's part of

[01:26:06] the down leg? And then also if you get

[01:26:08] in it and it's halted, how do you manage

[01:26:09] that situation? Yep, totally. And so,

[01:26:12] part of um,

[01:26:14] part of being with the trend and trying

[01:26:16] to live with the trend is I really try

[01:26:18] not to be on the other side of a halt.

[01:26:21] Um,

[01:26:21] meaning if something's going limit down,

[01:26:23] I probably want to either be short or

[01:26:26] flat and and definitely not long. Again,

[01:26:29] like that's my general rule. There are

[01:26:31] exceptions. Like if something's just so

[01:26:33] so panicked and so so capitulating, and

[01:26:35] I don't think I'm going to be able to

[01:26:36] get stock cuz it's going to halt and

[01:26:38] just gap up a a zillion, um,

[01:26:41] I will get some stock, but I would say

[01:26:44] the amount of times where things go so

[01:26:46] much further than you expect has made me

[01:26:48] create the rule. I mean, we saw Kodak.

[01:26:50] Uh,

[01:26:51] was that 2020? I I can't really

[01:26:53] remember. I mean, we've seen some things

[01:26:55] really go super super nuts. And so, I

[01:26:57] try to never be on the same side. In

[01:26:59] fact, I always tend to be with the

[01:27:01] trend. And what a halt effectively is is

[01:27:04] it's an imbalance between supply and

[01:27:05] demand, right? Um, the reason why it's

[01:27:07] halting is cuz the clearing price based

[01:27:10] on all the selling should really be

[01:27:11] lower. So, I don't want to if if the

[01:27:14] clearing if the market's saying the

[01:27:15] clearing price in this moment in time

[01:27:16] should be lower, I don't really want to

[01:27:18] be on the wrong side of that. Um, unless

[01:27:21] it's really really special. Um, and the

[01:27:23] other thing is vice versa. If I'm long

[01:27:25] into some of those, like uh, if you want

[01:27:27] a great example, there was WAL um, the

[01:27:30] day it went from like 30 to eight or

[01:27:32] something, then bounced back back to

[01:27:34] like 32 or whatever. A lot of people

[01:27:37] took sales too early even though the

[01:27:41] trend was so strong because they had a

[01:27:43] price target in mind rather than riding

[01:27:45] the wave. I just want to ride the wave,

[01:27:47] whichever way it is. As long as that

[01:27:49] wave's going to take me, I want to be a

[01:27:51] part of it unless it really starts to go

[01:27:52] nuts. And like stuff like WAL where it's

[01:27:55] just limit up, limit up, limit up, that

[01:27:57] stuff can really go and surprise you,

[01:27:59] and I want all that asymmetry. I almost

[01:28:01] never want to be selling into those up

[01:28:04] halts cuz you might you might really get

[01:28:05] um,

[01:28:06] some some really nice nice legs from

[01:28:08] that.

[01:28:09] Yeah, great. Um, perfect Lance. This has

[01:28:12] been awesome. Um, where can people learn

[01:28:14] more from you about your style? And also

[01:28:18] any last words of advice, encouragement,

[01:28:20] motivation for for all the traders

[01:28:22] watching?

[01:28:23] Sure. Well, um, as as all the haters

[01:28:26] would say, this this blown up washed up

[01:28:28] uh, you know, fake scammer trader,

[01:28:30] I run a nonprofit called the Impact

[01:28:32] Competition, impactcompetition.org. And

[01:28:35] what I do is I host competitions at

[01:28:37] colleges where students get to tackle

[01:28:40] local social issues in their community.

[01:28:42] I give them cash prizes. I give them

[01:28:43] seed money to the winning team. So, we

[01:28:45] have students tackling gun violence in

[01:28:47] Chicago. We have uh, students in Houston

[01:28:50] uh, helping food insecurity. We have

[01:28:51] youth mentorship. Uh, we're at a dozen

[01:28:53] schools. Always appreciate any support

[01:28:55] there. Uh, for all my trading content,

[01:28:58] you can follow me on Twitter

[01:28:59] @theonelanceb.

[01:29:00] Uh, my tip for those struggling is

[01:29:04] I'm kind of a big fan of Buddhist

[01:29:06] philosophy and and uh, you know, there's

[01:29:08] this one Chinese farmer parable. Um,

[01:29:11] what might seem bad in the end, you

[01:29:13] know, might be bad, might be good. What

[01:29:14] seems good, might be good, might be bad.

[01:29:16] And I I'm just a true believer in in

[01:29:18] having faith that everything works out

[01:29:20] in the end. And so whether it's through

[01:29:21] trading or something else,

[01:29:23] um have faith in yourself. Uh life is

[01:29:26] special, life is beautiful.

[01:29:28] Uh just just enjoy the ride, man, for

[01:29:30] for whatever it is, enjoy the process.

[01:29:32] And uh when you do that, it takes care

[01:29:34] of the rest one way or the other. So uh

[01:29:36] feel free to reach out, always trying to

[01:29:38] help, and thank you all for listening.

[01:29:40] Yeah, Lance, this has been really great,

[01:29:42] and it's a different perspective than a

[01:29:44] lot of what the other traders were

[01:29:45] offering. Uh but, you know, there as we

[01:29:47] mentioned, you know, we were chatting

[01:29:48] beforehand, there's a there's a

[01:29:49] foundational truth to to all the trading

[01:29:51] styles that are successful. So uh thank

[01:29:53] you for sharing yours. Uh to everybody

[01:29:54] watching, I hope you enjoyed. Uh please

[01:29:56] go ahead and leave a like down below for

[01:29:58] Lance. Uh subscribe to the channel.