Full Transcript
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et4UBoECM8o
[00:00] from 1700 to 1800 the world's population
[00:03] Grew From 600 million to 1 billion but
[00:06] in just 200 years after that that number shot up to over 5 billion people in 1961
[00:13] Mariner Eckles former Board of the Federal Reserve System described the exponential rate of growth of the world's population as the most vitally important problem facing the world today
[00:23] which may very well proved to be more explosive than the atomic or hydrogen bomb today
[00:27] many of us are starting to wake up to the truth
[00:29] one of the biggest problems facing our world is not overpopulation it's underpopulation
[00:33] last year there were only 700,000 baby sping
[00:36] there will be more retirees than workers
[00:38] and by 2050 the entire population of China will have dropped below 650 million
[00:45] um I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse
[00:49] we are at the beginning of a fundamental shift in modern human history
[00:53] how did this happen
[00:56] is this really as big of a problem as people are saying
[00:57] isn't less people on the Earth good for the Earth and what
[01:02] the Earth good for the Earth and what does this mean for the future of the
[01:03] does this mean for the future of the human species I'm going to be trying to
[01:05] human species I'm going to be trying to answer those questions to the best of my
[01:07] answer those questions to the best of my ability in this video let's start off
[01:10] ability in this video let's start off with how we got here the exponential
[01:11] with how we got here the exponential growth of the world's population
[01:13] growth of the world's population starting around the 1950s caused
[01:15] starting around the 1950s caused economists and sociologists to panic
[01:17] economists and sociologists to panic spawning books like the population bomb
[01:19] spawning books like the population bomb written by Stanford Professor Paul ERI
[01:22] written by Stanford Professor Paul ERI the very first sentences in the prologue
[01:24] the very first sentences in the prologue of that book give you a good idea of the
[01:27] of that book give you a good idea of the general attitude of our growing
[01:28] general attitude of our growing population during that time time the
[01:30] population during that time time the battle to feed all of humanity is over
[01:33] battle to feed all of humanity is over in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of
[01:35] in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death
[01:37] millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked
[01:39] in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now the biggest concern raised in
[01:41] upon now the biggest concern raised in this book was that the already existing
[01:44] this book was that the already existing population was not being fed adequately
[01:46] population was not being fed adequately and as it was growing at such a rapid
[01:48] and as it was growing at such a rapid pace food production would not be able
[01:50] pace food production would not be able to keep up causing worldwide famines
[01:52] to keep up causing worldwide famines this heavily influenced much of the
[01:54] this heavily influenced much of the general Public's view on population
[01:56] general Public's view on population control the US agency for International
[01:58] control the US agency for International Development started supporting Family
[02:00] Development started supporting Family Planning programs globally especially in
[02:02] Planning programs globally especially in countries like India Bangladesh and Indonesia.
[02:06] This included providing contraceptives and funding sterilization campaigns.
[02:10] One of the most famous instances of population control, China's one child policy, which imposed financial penalties on families with more than one child, was enacted during this time as well.
[02:21] The overpopulation concern was also a big contributor to improving female education and employment opportunities.
[02:27] As fear started to grow and more laws and policies were enacted to soften the blow of these predictions, the population growth rate plummeted from a peak of just over 2% to where it is now at today, which is around 8%.
[02:42] So how accurate did the population bomb end up being?
[02:43] Well, let's look at the claim of worldwide famines first.
[02:48] While famine has not been eliminated completely, the root of its cause has been political instability and not global food shortage.
[02:54] And if anything, we have a food overconsumption problem rather than underconsumption today.
[02:58] The world faces an obesity pandemic with the amount of calories consumed per person increasing by 24% since the 70s.
[03:05] person increasing by 24% since the 70s thus increasing the amount of humans.
[03:07] thus increasing the amount of humans diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and the.
[03:09] diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and the global death rate has continued to.
[03:11] global death rate has continued to decline substantially since then from 13.
[03:13] decline substantially since then from 13 over a th000 in 1965 to 74 to 10 over a.
[03:17] over a th000 in 1965 to 74 to 10 over a th000 from 1985 to 1990 it's safe to say.
[03:20] th000 from 1985 to 1990 it's safe to say that his predictions were significantly.
[03:22] that his predictions were significantly far off although his concerns about the.
[03:25] far off although his concerns about the environmental impact of a growing human.
[03:27] environmental impact of a growing human race are definitely being felt on our.
[03:29] race are definitely being felt on our increasingly hotter Planet regardless we.
[03:32] increasingly hotter Planet regardless we now need to take a look at the.
[03:33] now need to take a look at the repercussions such failed predictions.
[03:35] repercussions such failed predictions will be causing in the near future and.
[03:38] will be causing in the near future and this is where things start to get a.
[03:40] this is where things start to get a little Grim wait a second how do you.
[03:42] little Grim wait a second how do you even know that everything I've presented.
[03:44] even know that everything I've presented to you so far is the truth combating.
[03:46] to you so far is the truth combating misinformation has been a focal point of.
[03:48] misinformation has been a focal point of several videos on this channel and it's.
[03:50] several videos on this channel and it's why I'm always preaching nuance and.
[03:51] why I'm always preaching nuance and trying to make sure to cross reference.
[03:53] trying to make sure to cross reference any studies and articles I show because.
[03:55] any studies and articles I show because blindly believing the first thing that.
[03:56] blindly believing the first thing that you see on the internet is bound to keep.
[03:58] you see on the internet is bound to keep you in a bubble composed of falsity by.
[04:01] you in a bubble composed of falsity by only one side of a given topic if you're.
[04:04] only one side of a given topic if you're tired of scouring the internet to make.
[04:05] tired of scouring the internet to make sure you get all sides of relevant news.
[04:07] sure you get all sides of relevant news and studies and wondering who you can trust.
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[04:31] saw that on multiple pages on my social media.
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[05:08] free using the first link in my description so the easiest way to.
[05:10] description so the easiest way to understand where things are headed is by.
[05:11] understand where things are headed is by taking a look at the fertility rate.
[05:13] taking a look at the fertility rate replacement level this is the average.
[05:15] replacement level this is the average number of children a woman needs to have.
[05:17] number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself in a population the.
[05:19] to replace herself in a population the fertility rate replacement level is.
[05:21] fertility rate replacement level is around 2.1 children per woman so if a.
[05:24] around 2.1 children per woman so if a population stays at this rate it will.
[05:25] population stays at this rate it will neither grow nor shrink significantly.
[05:28] neither grow nor shrink significantly without migration now check out this.
[05:30] without migration now check out this live map which labels countries on.
[05:32] live map which labels countries on whether they are above or below that.
[05:34] whether they are above or below that fertility replacement rate starting.
[05:36] fertility replacement rate starting right around 1970 the time when the.
[05:38] right around 1970 the time when the population bomb book was released almost.
[05:41] population bomb book was released almost every single country in the world slowly.
[05:43] every single country in the world slowly started to go below the replacement.
[05:45] started to go below the replacement fertility rate and now Africa some areas.
[05:48] fertility rate and now Africa some areas in Europe and South America are the only.
[05:51] in Europe and South America are the only countries that will continue to see.
[05:52] countries that will continue to see their populations remain stable or.
[05:54] their populations remain stable or increase if the entire world had the.
[05:57] increase if the entire world had the fertility rate of the United States.
[05:58] fertility rate of the United States today then in just a few hundred years.
[06:01] today then in just a few hundred years we would be reduced to a total.
[06:03] we would be reduced to a total population of Just Around 2 billion.
[06:06] population of Just Around 2 billion that's in 8 billion person decrease from.
[06:09] that's in 8 billion person decrease from our Peak and it's possible it could only
[06:11] our Peak and it's possible it could only keep going down from there leading to
[06:13] keep going down from there leading to extinctions of entire nations how did we
[06:17] extinctions of entire nations how did we get to such a low replacement rate the
[06:19] get to such a low replacement rate the influence of one book could not have
[06:20] influence of one book could not have caused a population collapse of this
[06:23] caused a population collapse of this magnetude right well yeah it's not just
[06:25] magnetude right well yeah it's not just the book I think there's so many more
[06:27] the book I think there's so many more unforeseen developments that have had
[06:29] unforeseen developments that have had happened in modern society that we need
[06:31] happened in modern society that we need to talk about if we want to fully
[06:34] to talk about if we want to fully understand the coming population
[06:35] understand the coming population collapse and without fully understanding
[06:37] collapse and without fully understanding this things aren't likely to change what
[06:40] this things aren't likely to change what this really started with like almost all
[06:42] this really started with like almost all modern issues was the heavy shift away
[06:44] modern issues was the heavy shift away from rural areas to urban areas you see
[06:47] from rural areas to urban areas you see when looking throughout history rural
[06:49] when looking throughout history rural areas almost always tend to have stable
[06:51] areas almost always tend to have stable populations whereas the areas that
[06:52] populations whereas the areas that become urbanized see their birth rates
[06:54] become urbanized see their birth rates decrease and this is due to a few
[06:56] decrease and this is due to a few reasons the first reason is the cultural
[06:58] reasons the first reason is the cultural values and tradition in rural Societies
[07:01] values and tradition in rural Societies in agricultural settings there's often a
[07:03] in agricultural settings there's often a greater emphasis placed on having large
[07:05] greater emphasis placed on having large families partly due to the fact that
[07:07] families partly due to the fact that families needed to have a lot of
[07:08] families needed to have a lot of children to help contribute to the farm
[07:10] children to help contribute to the farm or other family labor tight-knit.
[07:12] or other family labor tight-knit communities are integral to these.
[07:13] communities are integral to these societies as well and it was common for.
[07:16] societies as well and it was common for everybody to know everybody meaning your.
[07:18] everybody to know everybody meaning your reputation could be ruined forever if.
[07:20] reputation could be ruined forever if you acted out of order rural areas may.
[07:22] you acted out of order rural areas may not also provide the same sort of.
[07:23] not also provide the same sort of education and employment opportunities.
[07:25] education and employment opportunities for women causing them to get married.
[07:28] for women causing them to get married and have children earlier and of course.
[07:30] and have children earlier and of course these areas are usually more religious.
[07:32] these areas are usually more religious and conservative which promotes the.
[07:33] and conservative which promotes the importance of having a large family.
[07:35] importance of having a large family a good example of a rural society in.
[07:37] good example of a rural society in the present day which fits this criteria is.
[07:39] present day which fits this criteria is the Amish communities in the United.
[07:41] the Amish communities in the United States they follow a strict Christian.
[07:43] States they follow a strict Christian doctrine that emphasizes community and.
[07:45] doctrine that emphasizes community and family values and have an average of six.
[07:48] family values and have an average of six to seven children per family and it's.
[07:49] to seven children per family and it's very rare that they even have the.
[07:51] very rare that they even have the opportunity to question their Amish.
[07:53] opportunity to question their Amish values meaning the agreeability and.
[07:55] values meaning the agreeability and willingness to work together is usually.
[07:57] willingness to work together is usually much higher now let's contrast this with.
[07:59] much higher now let's contrast this with the industrial world which is 90% urban.
[08:02] the industrial world which is 90% urban where most of us now reside as the focus.
[08:05] where most of us now reside as the focus shifted from community-based family.
[08:07] shifted from community-based family work to individual-based career work the.
[08:09] work to individual-based career work the incentive for actually having children.
[08:11] incentive for actually having children went down dramatically in many different ways.
[08:13] went down dramatically in many different ways the list for why this is the case is very extensive and it's very multi.
[08:16] ways the list for why this is the case is very extensive and it's very multi fasted we cannot reduce this down to just one modern problem so I'm going to do my best to explain all the reasons that apply to all the countries that are dealing with a low fertility rate right now.
[08:18] fasted we cannot reduce this down to just one modern problem so I'm going to do my best to explain all the reasons.
[08:21] just one modern problem so I'm going to do my best to explain all the reasons that apply to all the countries that are dealing with a low fertility rate right now.
[08:23] do my best to explain all the reasons that apply to all the countries that are dealing with a low fertility rate right now.
[08:25] that apply to all the countries that are dealing with a low fertility rate right now in a large city the concept of having neighbors is reduced to whoever you see in the hallways of your apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down.
[08:28] that apply to all the countries that are dealing with a low fertility rate right now.
[08:30] now in a large city the concept of having neighbors is reduced to whoever you see in the hallways of your apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down.
[08:32] now in a large city the concept of having neighbors is reduced to whoever you see in the hallways of your apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down.
[08:34] having neighbors is reduced to whoever you see in the hallways of your apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down.
[08:35] you see in the hallways of your apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down.
[08:37] apartment buildings which disincentivizes community and settling down many modern cities but especially the US are designed around communing in a car making it more difficult for people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:39] disincentivizes community and settling down many modern cities but especially the US are designed around communing in a car making it more difficult for people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:41] down many modern cities but especially the US are designed around communing in a car making it more difficult for people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:43] the US are designed around communing in a car making it more difficult for people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:45] a car making it more difficult for people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:48] people to have a third place AKA a place outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people.
[08:50] outside of work or your home where one can hang out socialize and meet new people as the antagonist to one of the reasons rural areas have more stable population growth employment and education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[08:52] can hang out socialize and meet new people as the antagonist to one of the reasons rural areas have more stable population growth employment and education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[08:54] people as the antagonist to one of the reasons rural areas have more stable population growth employment and education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[08:56] reasons rural areas have more stable population growth employment and education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[08:57] population growth employment and education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[08:59] education opportunities are more more abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early.
[09:01] abundant in urban areas resulting in women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early things like contraceptives and birth control have also done a decent job at reducing the.
[09:03] women no longer relying on getting married settling down and having kids as much or as early things like contraceptives and birth control have also done a decent job at reducing the.
[09:06] married settling down and having kids as much or as early things like contraceptives and birth control have also done a decent job at reducing the.
[09:07] much or as early things like contraceptives and birth control have also done a decent job at reducing the.
[09:09] contraceptives and birth control have also done a decent job at reducing the.
[09:11] also done a decent job at reducing the amount of unintended pregnancies though.
[09:13] amount of unintended pregnancies though this unfortunately hasn't made much of a difference for lowincome women.
[09:16] this unfortunately hasn't made much of a difference for lowincome women young people are spending increasingly more time on their digital devices rather than the real world.
[09:17] people are spending increasingly more time on their digital devices rather than the real world and there are so many repercussions in regards to population growth associated with this.
[09:19] time on their digital devices rather than the real world and there are so many repercussions in regards to population growth associated with this.
[09:21] than the real world and there are so many repercussions in regards to population growth associated with this.
[09:23] many repercussions in regards to population growth associated with this.
[09:25] population growth associated with this they spend more time viewing virtual images of people they are attracted to than people in real life which also causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:27] they spend more time viewing virtual images of people they are attracted to than people in real life which also causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:28] they spend more time viewing virtual images of people they are attracted to than people in real life which also causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:30] images of people they are attracted to than people in real life which also causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:32] than people in real life which also causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:34] causes them to increase their standards since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media.
[09:35] since they are primarily being shown the very best looking people on social media and this makes them less attracted to what we were once naturally attracted to.
[09:38] very best looking people on social media and this makes them less attracted to what we were once naturally attracted to.
[09:39] and this makes them less attracted to what we were once naturally attracted to.
[09:41] what we were once naturally attracted to if you've heard of the term Beauty inflation that's exactly what's going on right now social media and dating apps have also fueled the commodification of human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:43] if you've heard of the term Beauty inflation that's exactly what's going on right now social media and dating apps have also fueled the commodification of human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:45] inflation that's exactly what's going on right now social media and dating apps have also fueled the commodification of human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:47] right now social media and dating apps have also fueled the commodification of human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:49] have also fueled the commodification of human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:51] human beings as more people treat their dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:53] dates like dispensable objects leading to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:55] to a stronger division between male and female values.
[09:57] female values this is reflected in how many more young men are identifying as conservative while young women are increasingly more liberal.
[09:59] many more young men are identifying as conservative while young women are increasingly more liberal.
[10:01] conservative while young women are increasingly more liberal.
[10:03] increasingly more liberal it's the reason why the men going their own way movement is increasing and the 4B movement among South Korean women started the hodgepodge of cultural and
[10:05] reason why the men going their own way movement is increasing and the 4B movement among South Korean women started the hodgepodge of cultural and
[10:08] movement is increasing and the 4B movement among South Korean women started the hodgepodge of cultural and
[10:10] movement among South Korean women started the hodgepodge of cultural and
[10:12] started the hodgepodge of cultural and moral values within urban areas also.
[10:14] moral values within urban areas also makes it difficult for two people of the same country to get to the point of agreements in their values where they consider having children and building a life together and to be honest as young people become increasingly more aware of these huge issues that are constantly being fed to them through the media that are making it it seem like catastrophe is just moments away kind of like this video unfortunately but I will be getting more positive soon.
[10:35] they see much less of a point to actually progress and have a purpose in life leading to a delay immaturity and a greater amount of young people living at home.
[10:43] I've heard a lot of comments from both people in real life and on the internet that go something along the lines of why would I ever bring a child into a world with more and more instability chaos loneliness hopelessness and purposelessness and we can't talk about this issue without mentioning the cost of living and the cost of having a child.
[11:01] in the past if you got a college education you were almost guaranteed a solid paying job and could most likely afford a house to live in with a partner making it much easier to start a family but now this is only reserved for a much
[11:12] but now this is only reserved for a much smaller percentage of the population.
[11:14] if smaller percentage of the population if you look at the countries with the lowest fertility rates the data coincides with the highest youth unemployment rates.
[11:20] the house price to income ratio has also grown significantly in most developed countries further distancing the idea of a family home from The Young people's minds.
[11:29] with all of this being said you'd have to wonder why this isn't being talked about more or being considered one of our biggest threats.
[11:37] and that's because the effects of a low fertility rate are not being felt yet due to a growing older population.
[11:45] now that people are living longer than ever it's given the illusion that things are still remaining quite stable or are even going in an upwards Trend.
[11:53] and until we start communicating this problem more this trend is going to continue.
[11:55] but why does it even matter anyway.
[11:57] weeren our fossil fuels dangerously close to becoming depleted.
[12:01] didn't we get into the mess that we are in today because there's too many people on earth.
[12:08] I mean there's some truth to those concerns but the consequences of our population declining at the rate it's predicted to will have
[12:14] at the rate it's predicted to will have serious repercussions as less young people exist and also engage Less in work economies will start taking a hit due to a decreased labor force and fewer workers means fewer people paying taxes which might seem great in the short term but in the long term it can lead to Cuts in public services or higher taxes for the remaining population a young labor force is also important for the old because the young workers are responsible for supporting an increasing number of retirees through Social Services like healthc care and pensions without them the old people will have nobody to take care of them or replace them and while population collapse can result in less environmental strain the downside of this is that it can lead to economic disruptions that make it harder to focus on and fund sustainability and environmental protection programs I have just been ripping some depressing observations and stats at you within the past few minutes so it's about time that I changed that with all this being said the question remains what can we do and
[13:14] The question remains what can we do and what does our future look like?
[13:17] What does our future look like?
[13:18] Firstly, I don't think things are going to be fixed solely from focusing on financial incentives.
[13:23] Countries such as South Korea and Japan, who have some of the lowest fertility rates, have already tried throwing money at their citizens who have kids and giving them more child care benefits, but that hasn't done much of anything to change the fertility rate.
[13:35] Since the problem comes from a combination of many things, the solution is going to come from a combination of many things.
[13:41] The thing is, I really like the type of progress we've made in some areas of modern society.
[13:47] I would say I'm pretty pro-individualist and I like the fact that globalization has given young people the opportunity to not be immediately indoctrinated into whatever ideology the people most closest to them have and can question how the world works and share different beliefs with different countries and get a better, more overall view of the world without as severe of consequences.
[14:13] And I like that young people have less pressure to
[14:15] that young people have less pressure to figure things out or settle down at a young age or Force themselves into a relationship that they pursued merely because of social pressure but like all these societal advancements we've been seeing there's Nuance to this there's going to be new problems that always spring up especially when the advancements are taken to the extreme
[14:36] what I hope to see is human beings achieving a properly balanced ratio of positive Traditional Values with modernity's positive progress
[14:45] every new era of humanity is experimental but we're now experimenting with much more complex things at a faster rate than ever and that's bound to come with some minor hiccups and I think we're finally reaching a point where we realize which parts of Modern Life are clearly bad for us when overindulging in them that means we start setting more restrictions on things that are taking us away from building communities like digital devices creating more places for young people to meet and hang out and giving them more of a reason to it means
[15:17] them more of a reason to it means potentially banning dating apps or somehow finding a way to change them.
[15:23] so they aren't designed to be a dopamine inducing slot machine reducing the amount of hours needed to work weekly just to survive.
[15:30] increasing wages and building more housing to make it more affordable and just reestablishing hope and faith in the future through proper education and guidance that might not be through religion but by creating a society which at the very least makes young people want to progress more.
[15:47] and get to the point where they consider having children.
[15:49] listen there's no doubt I am an optimist I'm very bullish on humanity and I genuinely do believe that most humans want to work together and cooperate and see each other succeed.
[16:03] when they aren't so far removed from the environment we spent our first 100,000 years in so it's really a matter of asking the question how do we get closer to that sort of environment.
[16:11] Again by removing everything that clearly isn't working with modernity while keeping the rest of the positive advancements we made.
[16:17] humans and the universe always seem.
[16:19] made humans and the universe always seem to find a way to get back to equilibrium.
[16:21] to find a way to get back to equilibrium whether that comes in the form of a
[16:23] whether that comes in the form of a minor change or a massive transformation.
[16:26] minor change or a massive transformation our population rapidly declining is part
[16:29] our population rapidly declining is part of the natural order of things and part
[16:31] of the natural order of things and part of our next Evolution I've presented
[16:33] of our next Evolution I've presented some ideas for how we can get to a
[16:34] some ideas for how we can get to a better place but I would love to hear
[16:36] better place but I would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and
[16:38] your thoughts in the comments below and if you want to hear me discuss the
[16:40] if you want to hear me discuss the issues that I was rattling off when I
[16:43] issues that I was rattling off when I was talking about why the birth rate is
[16:44] was talking about why the birth rate is declining so much in more detail then
[16:47] declining so much in more detail then you should check out my entire playlist
[16:49] you should check out my entire playlist of video essays on Modern issues you'll
[16:52] of video essays on Modern issues you'll probably like it if you like to this
[16:53] probably like it if you like to this video goodbye.