# The Hidden Winners of the SpaceX IPO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCI3Iq7IJzI
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] SpaceX is a special company, we all know that, right?
  SpaceX是一家特殊公司，我们都知道，对吧？

[00:04] SpaceX didn't ask for permission, it asked for forgiveness.
  SpaceX没有请求许可，而是请求宽恕。

[00:05] They just moved at a million miles an hour in terms of their build-out, their innovation.
  他们在建设和创新方面以惊人的速度前进。

[00:09] I heard, you know, they just did whatever they had to do to get those rockets off.
  我听说，你知道，他们只是做了他们必须做的一切来让那些火箭升空。

[00:13] I mean, that's kind of the story that a lot of people know about behind the scenes.
  我的意思是，这在某种程度上是很多人幕后所知道的故事。

[00:17] They didn't necessarily go through proper channels in terms of building out that program, and it worked for them.
  他们在建立那个项目方面不一定遵循了正规渠道，但这对他们来说是奏效的。

[00:21] SpaceX is miraculous.
  SpaceX是奇迹。

[00:23] Like, SpaceX is one of the most spectacular companies we have ever seen in our life, and the innovation there has just been ridiculous.
  就像，SpaceX是我们一生中见过的最壮观的公司之一，那里的创新简直是不可思议的。

[00:30] It's an amazing company.
  这是一家了不起的公司。

[00:32] Like, I don't think anybody would argue that SpaceX is an insanely amazing company.
  就像，我认为没有人会争辩说SpaceX是一家极其出色的公司。

[00:36] It's just the valuation.
  这只是估值问题。

[00:39] I love the company, I love the vision, I love what they've done historically, I love what they have the chance to do.
  我爱这家公司，我爱它的愿景，我爱他们过去所做的一切，我爱他们有机会做的事情。

[00:44] I just don't love it as an investment at these prices.
  我只是不喜欢以这个价格作为投资。

[00:47] Why would we pay 6x what we could have bought this for?
  我们为什么要支付我们本可以买到这个价格的6倍呢？

[00:50] Like, just a very short time ago, right?
  就像，就在不久前，对吧？

[00:54] I'm kicking myself for not buying back in, you know, a couple years ago.
  我真后悔几年前没有回购，你知道的。

[00:59] Who knows what's going to happen between
  谁知道会发生什么

[01:00] now and 180 days from what, Thursday?
  现在，从周四算起 180 天？

[01:03] So, you know, maybe you get the chance again.
  所以，你知道，你也许有机会再次获得。

[01:05] That's the thing.
  这就是问题所在。

[01:05] That this company has a really small float.
  这家公司的流通量非常小。

[01:06] They are going to accelerate the entry into at least some of the indexes, meaning that the indexes will be forced to purchase off of a very small float.
  他们将加速进入至少一些指数，这意味着指数将被迫购买非常小的流通量。

[01:17] So, there's essentially a massive tailwind and almost like a floor on this stock, at least from my perspective.
  所以，基本上这只股票有一个巨大的顺风和几乎像一个地板，至少从我的角度来看是这样。

[01:25] So, it feels like the stock probably should do okay or pretty good unless people are figuring out ways early on to hedge their positions that they're looking to liquidate once they're able to liquidate those positions, right?
  所以，感觉这只股票可能会表现不错，除非人们很早就想出对冲他们打算在能够清算这些头寸后进行清算的方法，对吧？

[01:39] And Elon has this tier structure where the better the stock does, the the more you could liquidate early.
  埃隆有这个分级结构，股票表现越好，你就能越早清算。

[01:46] Like, if the stock is up 30% from its IPO, I think investors are allowed to start liquidating that stock.
  比如，如果股票比 IPO 上涨了 30%，我认为投资者就可以开始清算该股票了。

[01:50] Listen, here's the thing, guys.
  听着，事情是这样的，各位。

[01:53] It's really hard to assess how this does over the next 6 to 12 months.
  很难评估这在未来 6 到 12 个月内会表现如何。

[01:55] Just really difficult.
  真的很难。

[02:01] think investors are falling into a trap.
  我认为投资者正落入一个陷阱。

[02:04] not because they choose to invest in SpaceX, but because they choose to spend so much of their time researching and thinking about SpaceX.
  不是因为他们选择投资SpaceX，而是因为他们选择花大量时间研究和思考SpaceX。

[02:14] If you want to invest in SpaceX, fine.
  如果你想投资SpaceX，那就投资吧。

[02:16] Do it.
  去做吧。

[02:16] But if you're spending an an unordinary amount of your time reading, you know, X post and articles and thinking about SpaceX, that I think is the biggest investment mistake that you've made all year.
  但如果你花非同寻常的时间阅读X帖子和文章，并思考SpaceX，我认为这是你今年犯下的最大投资错误。

[02:30] because there are so many great investment opportunities right now and you're just spinning your wheels following the herd doing what all the other idiotic investors do, which is wasting their time on something that they should be spending maybe 15 minutes analyzing and making a decision on.
  因为现在有太多绝佳的投资机会，而你却在随波逐流，做着所有其他愚蠢投资者都在做的事情，那就是浪费时间在一些他们本应花15分钟分析并做出决定的事情上。

[02:46] There are some trades here around SpaceX.
  这里有一些关于SpaceX的交易。

[02:47] We can talk about those.
  我们可以谈谈那些。

[02:50] I think I think this IPO is going to lead to some interesting.
  我认为我认为这次IPO将带来一些有趣的。

[02:55] I would say I think it increases my conviction on some other stocks.
  我想说，我认为这增强了我对其他一些股票的信心。

[03:01] All right, we we should maybe talk about
  好的，我们也许应该谈谈

[03:02] That.
  那个。

[03:03] SpaceX isn't the only mega IPO that we're talking about.
  SpaceX 不是我们正在谈论的唯一一家大型 IPO。

[03:06] So, OpenAI just yesterday announced that they are going public.
  所以，OpenAI 昨天刚刚宣布他们要上市了。

[03:08] They posted a blog.
  他们发布了一篇博客。

[03:11] They're not yet saying when.
  他们还没有说什么时候。

[03:13] Their last valuation was 850 billion.
  他们上次的估值为 8500 亿美元。

[03:16] And then last week we had Anthropic at 965 billion after raising an additional 65 billion.
  然后上周我们有 Anthropic，在又筹集了 650 亿美元后估值为 9650 亿美元。

[03:18] That Anthropic last week announced that they're public.
  那个 Anthropic 上周宣布他们上市了。

[03:21] So, what is an investor to do to split their funny money amongst all of these IPOs?
  那么，投资者该如何将他们的闲钱分配到所有这些 IPO 中呢？

[03:25] If you want to be a great investor, the time to be making those moves were months ago, years ago on SpaceX, right?
  如果你想成为一名伟大的投资者，那么采取这些行动的时候是几个月前，是几年前对 SpaceX 而言，对吧？

[03:32] So, like we when we invest in SpaceX, we had a thesis that Elon would continue to kind of paint this picture of what SpaceX is capable of because it was a space company, it would be hard to disprove, that retail investors would pour into the IPO and we would make an insane amount of money throwing our money in at 30 something billion and exiting at something much larger than that.
  所以，就像我们投资 SpaceX 时一样，我们有一个论点，即埃隆将继续描绘 SpaceX 的能力，因为它是一家太空公司，很难被证伪，散户投资者会涌入 IPO，我们会赚一大笔钱，在 300 多亿美元投入资金，并在远高于此的价格退出。

[03:57] Now, that's exactly the way this
  现在，这正是这个方式

[04:03] played out other than us getting thrown out of the fund.
  除了我们被踢出基金之外，别无他法。

[04:05] the logic at the time was that SpaceX was never going to IPO and that hopefully there would be something that was a spin-off.
  当时的逻辑是SpaceX永远不会IPO，并希望会有某种分拆。

[04:11] Well, that was the logic at the time.
  嗯，这就是当时的逻辑。

[04:14] That we all knew SpaceX was going to IPO.
  我们都知道SpaceX将要IPO。

[04:16] The exit was always going to be the IPO, right?
  退出总是会通过IPO来实现，对吧？

[04:19] And whether they IPO'd or basically IPO'd every single facet of SpaceX separately, it didn't really matter, right?
  无论他们是IPO了，还是基本上将SpaceX的每一个独立方面都IPO了，这真的不重要，对吧？

[04:27] That's where I thought our heads were at the time is that we have Starlink that can IPO.
  这就是我认为我们当时的想法，我们有Starlink可以IPO。

[04:31] We have all these technologies that are offshoots of the master rocket company that they might IPO independently.
  我们拥有所有这些技术，它们是母火箭公司的分支，它们可能会独立IPO。

[04:40] Yeah, I mean it it really doesn't matter either way, right?
  是的，我的意思是无论哪种方式都无关紧要，对吧？

[04:42] The bottom line is we were investing early knowing that that was an inevitability.
  最重要的是，我们很早就开始投资，知道这是不可避免的。

[04:48] Now, we're here at the inevitability and I have not a whole lot of interest investing today because I'm not sure that there's anything that I'm aware of related to SpaceX that other investors aren't.
  现在，我们已经到了这个不可避免的时刻，而我今天投资的兴趣不大，因为我不确定是否有任何我所知道的与SpaceX相关的、其他投资者不知道的东西。

[05:03] There's a lot of debate, but man, this
  有很多争论，但是，老兄，这个

[05:05] Valuation is absolutely wild, guys.
  估值太疯狂了，伙计们。

[05:09] I just I'm staying away from it here.
  我只是在这里远离它。

[05:11] I just don't care about it.
  我根本不在乎它。

[05:13] I care about other things in this market.
  我关心这个市场里的其他事情。

[05:15] I think there are companies that will benefit from this IPO.
  我认为有些公司将从这次IPO中受益。

[05:18] They're What What are they getting? 80 billion, Jordan?
  他们得到了什么？800亿，乔丹？

[05:20] Is that roughly?
  大概是这样吗？

[05:21] Yeah, somewhere around like 75 billion.
  是的，大概在750亿左右。

[05:23] So, they're getting 75 billion.
  所以，他们得到了750亿。

[05:25] You have to ask yourself, where's that money going?
  你得问问自己，这笔钱将流向何方？

[05:28] I think the most interesting partnership that SpaceX has right now is Intel.
  我认为SpaceX目前最有趣的合作是与英特尔。

[05:35] We all know that the future of AI, at least over the next 5 years, is really oriented around fabrication and chips.
  我们都知道，至少在未来5年内，人工智能的未来确实围绕着制造和芯片。

[05:41] And that Intel partnership is super interesting to me.
  而与英特尔的合作对我来说非常有趣。

[05:47] I've heard some, you know, some people in my network have even talked talked me about the possibility of SpaceX trying to acquire Intel.
  我听说过一些，你知道，我网络里的一些人甚至和我谈过SpaceX试图收购英特尔的可能性。

[05:54] I think there might be some regulatory issues there.
  我认为那里可能存在一些监管问题。

[05:56] I think they probably like to acquire Intel.
  我认为他们可能喜欢收购英特尔。

[05:59] Whether they actually acquire the company or do what Jensen did at Nvidia recently with one of his acquisitions
  无论他们是实际收购公司，还是像黄仁勋最近在英伟达收购其中一家公司那样做

[06:06] where they just basically acquire the parts, right?
  他们基本上就是获取这些零件，对吧？

[06:08] Or they they they structure deals to where they have exclusive access and licenses to the technology, to the chipsets that essentially is the same as them acquiring Intel.
  或者他们构建交易，以便他们能够独家访问和获得技术、芯片组的许可，这本质上等同于他们收购英特尔。

[06:22] Either way, or even if they just end up spending a ton of money with Intel because Intel is an early partner of TerraFab.
  无论哪种方式，即使他们最终因为英特尔是TerraFab的早期合作伙伴而花费大量资金与英特尔合作。

[06:25] They're obviously closely associated with the United States, which we know Elon loves deals like that because it gives him advantages in DC trying to get those deals done.
  他们显然与美国关系密切，我们知道埃隆喜欢这样的交易，因为它能让他在华盛顿特区获得优势，以促成那些交易。

[06:38] I think Intel's really interesting here.
  我认为英特尔在这里真的很有趣。

[06:40] I think Intel's almost like a call option on SpaceX and the success of SpaceX in AI.
  我认为英特尔几乎就像是SpaceX以及SpaceX在人工智能领域成功的看涨期权。

[06:45] Now, that said, Elon has also talked about obviously developing his own chips, in which case, I think, you know, Jordan, if he goes down that road, would you agree you kind of have to move to, you know, some of the fabrication
  话虽如此，埃隆也谈到过显然要开发自己的芯片，在这种情况下，我认为，你知道，乔丹，如果他走那条路，你是否同意你某种程度上必须转向，你知道，一些制造环节

[07:07] Companies themselves, right?
  公司本身，对吧？

[07:10] ASMI, those would be the beneficiaries of him actually getting in the chip business, right?
  ASMI，那些将是他真正进入芯片业务的受益者，对吧？

[07:14] But then really across the entire spectrum of AI, especially Nvidia, I think, no matter what, Nvidia is going to be the cornerstone of his kind of AI infrastructure build-out.
  但随后，在整个AI领域，尤其是英伟达，我认为，无论如何，英伟达将是他那种AI基础设施建设的基石。

[07:28] So, that's a positive for Nvidia as well.
  所以，这对英伟达来说也是一个积极因素。

[07:30] So, these aren't necessarily sexy trades, but it's yet another massive tailwind supporting AI infrastructure.
  所以，这些不一定是热门交易，但它又是一个支持AI基础设施的巨大顺风。

[07:38] And if you do your homework on SpaceX, you can kind of see which of those players is most likely to benefit most, even SMCI, right?
  如果你对SpaceX做足功课，你就能大致看出哪些参与者最有可能受益最多，甚至SMCI，对吧？

[07:49] They are a company that I think was a key infrastructure supplier to Elon's last major.
  我认为他们是一家公司，是埃隆上次重大项目的一个关键基础设施供应商。

[07:56] SMCI just got a big contract.
  SMCI刚获得一份大合同。

[07:58] I don't remember who threw.
  我不记得是谁投的了。

[07:59] The problem with SMCI is that they are just not a trusted name anymore with some of those scandals that they've been through.
  SMCI的问题是，经过那些丑闻之后，他们不再是一个值得信赖的名字了。

[08:06] They weren't a trusted name before, they're not a trusted name now, and
  他们以前不是一个值得信赖的名字，现在也不是一个值得信赖的名字，而且

[08:09] That's kind of a known.
  这在某种程度上是已知的。

[08:12] But, if Elon's coming into this money and he's about to do the biggest fab the biggest data factory ever, right?
  但是，如果埃隆·马斯克获得了这笔钱，并且他将要建造有史以来最大的晶圆厂，最大的数据工厂，对吧？

[08:17] By like an insane like factor of 10 or 30, whatever it is, over any other data factory, and SMCI is providing liquid cooled infrastructure there, that's a real needle mover for them, wouldn't you say?
  比任何其他数据工厂都要大10倍或30倍，无论如何，而且SMCI在那里提供液冷基础设施，这对他们来说是一个真正的推动因素，您不这么认为吗？

[08:34] So, like, in my head, I'm thinking SMCI, I'm thinking Nvidia, I'm thinking Intel.
  所以，在我看来，我想到的是SMCI，我想到的是英伟达，我想到的是英特尔。

[08:40] Uh these are companies that are likely to benefit more than others from the general success of SpaceX.
  呃，这些公司比其他公司更有可能从SpaceX的整体成功中受益。

[08:46] So, that that's where my head is going, at least, if I wanted to play this in any way.
  所以，至少，如果我想以任何方式参与其中，我的想法就是这样。

[08:54] And SpaceX, for me, is something that could go up 50% or down 50% in a week, and I would not be shocked either way.
  对我来说，SpaceX可以在一周内上涨50%或下跌50%，无论哪种情况我都不会感到惊讶。

[09:00] I think it's really important as an investor not to act like Jim Cramer and say when you don't know, okay?
  我认为作为一名投资者，非常重要的是不要像吉姆·克莱默那样，在不知道的时候就乱说，好吗？

[09:05] So, like, I actually don't know what's going to
  所以，我实际上不知道会发生什么

[09:10] happen with SpaceX.
  发生在 SpaceX 上。

[09:13] I do not know if over the 6 months whether the amount of SpaceX supply that's going to be coming in from people that have held it for 7 years and are on huge gains is going to outweigh the retail demand.
  我不知道在接下来的六个月里，那些持有 SpaceX 股票多年并已获得巨额收益的人所提供的供应量，是否会超过散户的需求。

[09:25] The index demand.
  指数需求。

[09:25] Yeah, all the 401(k)s that now have SpaceX in it overnight.
  是的，所有的 401(k) 计划现在一夜之间都包含了 SpaceX。

[09:29] But, most importantly, the hype cycle of everything this company is going to be in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, right?
  但最重要的是，这家公司在未来 2 年、5 年、10 年、20 年的炒作周期，对吧？

[09:36] So, like, it's really hard to tell how people will react to that stuff because you can't apply normal logic to it.
  所以，很难说人们会如何反应，因为你无法对其应用正常的逻辑。

[09:44] Because if Elon comes out and says, or some analyst comes out and says, "Hey, they're going to mine $10 trillion of space rock for rare earths starting in 2034."
  因为如果埃隆·马斯克出来说，或者某个分析师出来说，“嘿，他们将从 2034 年开始开采价值 10 万亿美元的太空岩石以获取稀土。”

[09:56] What are you going to say to that?
  你对此会怎么说？

[09:57] Like like then there's going to be a fight that no one's going to listen to because everyone has short attention spans.
  然后就会有一场争论，没有人会听，因为每个人的注意力都很短暂。

[10:00] No one's reading a 20-page report or rebuttal on that.
  没有人会阅读关于此的 20 页报告或反驳。

[10:02] They're just seeing the headline and like, "Wow, it's another $10 trillion for SpaceX."
  他们只是看到标题，然后说，“哇，这是 SpaceX 的又一个 10 万亿美元。”

[10:07] And maybe that actually works and gets
  也许这真的会奏效并带来

[10:12] SpaceX to pump.
  SpaceX 要拉盘。

[10:15] Now, with the analyst or the hedge fund or whoever that wrote the initial report, do they actually think that, or were they trying to pump it?
  现在，分析师或者对冲基金或者写了最初报告的任何人，他们真的这么认为吗，还是他们试图拉盘？

[10:21] Does it even matter?
  这重要吗？

[10:23] Look, intentions intentions are one thing, but message sent is not always message received.
  看，意图是意图是一回事，但发送的消息并不总是收到的消息。

[10:27] So, yeah, who knows?
  所以，是的，谁知道呢？

[10:29] This is what I freaking hate about investing in 2026.
  这就是我他妈讨厌在2026年投资的原因。

[10:35] There's not like a really solid baseline for rational thinking, all right?
  没有一个真正扎实的理性思考的基础，对吧？

[10:38] So, you just have to know that going in.
  所以，你必须知道这一点。

[10:43] SpaceX is is is really difficult to assess, I think.
  我认为SpaceX真的很难评估。

[10:46] So, I I just don't know.
  所以，我我就是不知道。

[10:48] I'd probably sell half cuz I just don't know, okay?
  我可能会卖掉一半，因为我就是不知道，好吗？

[10:50] I would focus on something I do know more about.
  我会专注于我更了解的事情。

[10:55] The conclusion of today's episode is SpaceX, I just don't know, man.
  今天这期节目的结论是SpaceX，我就是不知道，伙计。

[11:00] But at least we're honest.
  但至少我们很诚实。

[11:02] We just don't know.
  我们就是不知道。