Full Transcript
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV3sBlRgzTI
[00:00] and then uh I think it's also important.
[00:02] and then uh I think it's also important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy.
[00:05] so the normal way that we conduct Our Lives is we we we we Reason by analogy.
[00:09] um it's we're doing this because it's like something else that was done or it's like what um other people are doing.
[00:17] me too type ideas yeah.
[00:20] SL yeah slight iterations on on on a theme.
[00:24] um and and uh and it's because it's it's kind of mentally easier to Reason by analogy rather than from first principles.
[00:33] but by first principles is kind of a physics way of looking at the world.
[00:36] and what that really means is you kind of boil things down to the most fundamental truths.
[00:41] and and say okay what do we sure as true or or as sure as possible is true.
[00:49] and then reason up from there.
[00:52] uh that takes a lot more mental energy.
[00:55] um give me an example of that like what's one thing that you've you've done that on that you feels work for you sure so.
[01:00] on that you feel is work for you sure so um somebody could say um in fact people.
[01:03] um somebody could say um in fact people do uh that battery packs are really expensive and that's just the way they will always be cuz that's the way they've been in the past um you're like well no that's that's pretty dumb you know because if if uh if you applied that reasoning to anything new that then you wouldn't be able to to ever get to that new thing right um so um you know it's like you can't say oh you know horses nobody wants a car because horses are great and we're used to them and they can eat grass and there's lots of grass all over the place and you know there's not like a there's no gasoline that people can buy so people are never going to never get never going to get cars right um people did say that you know um and and for Batteries they would say oh it's going to cost you know historically it's cost six $600 per $600 um uh per kilowatt hour and
[02:03] Uh per kilowatt hour and so it's not going to be much better than that in the future and you say no okay.
[02:07] What what what are the batteries made of?
[02:09] So so first principles would be say okay what are the material constituents of the batteries?
[02:12] What is the spot market value of the material constituents?
[02:16] So you can say okay it's got Cobalt nickel aluminum carbon um and some polymers for separation and a steel can.
[02:23] So break that down in on a material basis and say okay what if we bought that in London Metal Exchange?
[02:27] What would each of those things cost like oh jeez uh it's like $80 uh per kilowatt hour.
[02:37] Mhm so clearly you just need to think of clever ways to take those materials and combine them into the shape of a battery cell.
[02:45] And you can have batteries that are much much cheaper than anyone realizes.