# The Economy is About to Witness the UNTHINKABLE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev6e1dJCelc
Translation: zh-TW

[00:00] The yield curve has just steepened by two full percentage points coming out of an inversion.
  收益率曲線剛剛從倒掛中陡峭了兩個百分點。

[00:06] The last time that we saw a move like this was in the early 1980s, a period subsequently followed by two economic recessions within the span of just 3 years with US unemployment reaching the highest levels since the Great Depression.
  我們上次看到類似的變動是在 1980 年代初期，隨後在短短 3 年內發生了兩次經濟衰退，美國失業率達到了自大蕭條以來最高水平。

[00:20] In fact, every single time that the yield curve has steepened like it is today, it was either during or right before a recession began.
  事實上，每次收益率曲線像今天這樣陡峭時，都是在衰退開始時或之前不久。

[00:26] This includes the 2020 pandemic recession, the 2007 great financial crisis, the 2001 dot bust, the 1990 Gulf War recession, and believe it or not, this also includes the Great Depression, where the yield curve steepened in October of 1929, the very month that marked the beginning of the Great Depression.
  這包括 2020 年的疫情衰退、2007 年的金融危機、2001 年的互聯網泡沫破裂、1990 年的海灣戰爭衰退，而且，這還包括了大蕭條，當時收益率曲線在 1929 年 10 月陡峭化，正是這個月標誌著大蕭條的開始。

[00:47] You can quickly understand why the yield curve is such a powerful and famous macroeconomic indicator.
  您可以快速理解為什麼收益率曲線是如此強大且著名的宏觀經濟指標。

[00:52] And this same yield curve is currently giving us a very scary signal today.
  而這同一條收益率曲線目前今天正給我們一個非常可怕的信號。

[00:57] Now, this is not a doom and gloom video.
  現在，這不是一個末日悲觀的視頻。

[00:59] I'm not going to tell you to sell all
  我不會告訴你賣掉所有

[01:00] your stocks and start hoarding cash.
  你的股票並開始囤積現金。

[01:02] Instead, we're going to dive into the data to understand exactly what the yield curve is telling us about the future of the economy today and how to actually position properly for what's coming next.
  相反，我們將深入研究數據，以確切了解收益率曲線今天告訴我們關於經濟未來的訊息，以及如何為即將到來的情況進行適當定位。

[01:12] Now, in the vast majority of these past instances where the yield curve steepened, a recession typically began within 12 months of the yield curve crossing back above the zero threshold.
  現在，在過去收益率曲線趨陡的大多數情況下，衰退通常發生在收益率曲線重新回到零閾值之上後的 12 個月內。

[01:23] Now, today, despite the yield curve crossing above that level in June of 2025, exactly 12 months ago, a recession has not occurred yet.
  現在，今天，儘管收益率曲線在 2025 年 6 月高於該水平，也就是 12 個月前，但衰退尚未發生。

[01:31] Real GDP in the US is still growing at a healthy 2.7%.
  美國的實際國內生產總值仍以健康的 2.7% 增長。

[01:35] The unemployment rate is currently sitting at 4.3% which is well within the 4 to 6% range of what the Federal Reserve considers to be full employment.
  失業率目前為 4.3%，遠在聯邦儲備委員會認為的充分就業範圍 4% 至 6% 之內。

[01:46] And in case you don't trust the government data, just look at the stock market.
  萬一你不相信政府數據，看看股市就知道了。

[01:49] It's sitting at all-time highs after rallying around 20% in just the last 2 months.
  在過去僅僅 2 個月內上漲了約 20% 後，它正處於歷史高點。

[01:54] Not exactly something you would expect to see if the economy was experiencing a recession.
  如果經濟正在經歷衰退，這並不是你預期會看到的情況。

[01:58] So, either the yield curve's flawless track record of
  所以，收益率曲線完美的記錄顯示

[02:02] predicting recessions has finally been broken, or a recession is actually right around the corner and is about to catch investors by surprise.
  預測衰退的模式終於被打破了，或者衰退其實就在眼前，即將讓投資者措手不及。

[02:11] Well, to answer that, we first need to understand what makes the yield curve such a reliable predictor of economic downturns.
  嗯，要回答這個問題，我們首先需要了解是什麼讓收益率曲線成為經濟衰退如此可靠的預測指標。

[02:17] When the yield curve inverts, it means that short-term interest rates are above long-term interest rates.
  當收益率曲線倒掛時，意味著短期利率高於長期利率。

[02:23] The Federal Reserve is largely responsible for this as they directly control where short-term rates go through something called the Federal Funds rate.
  聯邦儲備委員會對此負有主要責任，因為他們通過所謂的聯邦基金利率直接控制短期利率的走向。

[02:31] And when the Fed pushes rates high enough to cause an inversion, it sets off a chain reaction that tends to end in a recession.
  而當聯準會將利率推高到足以引起倒掛時，就會引發一連串反應，最終往往導致衰退。

[02:37] This chain reaction stems from the fact that credit conditions are tighter when the yield curve is inverted.
  這種連鎖反應源於收益率曲線倒掛時信貸條件更為嚴格的事實。

[02:43] So, banks limit their lending to people and businesses, which slows the economy down and can eventually cause a downturn.
  因此，銀行限制向個人和企業放貸，這會減緩經濟發展，並最終可能導致經濟衰退。

[02:51] The very opposite happens when the yield curve is steep or at elevated levels.
  當收益率曲線陡峭或處於較高水平時，情況則恰恰相反。

[02:54] This is when short-term rates are well below long-term rates, providing an environment where credit flows more freely, which means that banks are lending money to people and businesses
  這時短期利率遠低於長期利率，提供了一個信貸更自由流動的環境，這意味著銀行正在向個人和企業放貸

[03:03] much more easily.
  更容易。

[03:05] This provides the right conditions for the economy to grow.
  這為經濟增長提供了有利條件。

[03:09] And we can see this relationship very clearly by putting GDP growth on top of the yield curve.
  我們可以通過將GDP增長置於收益率曲線之上，非常清楚地看到這種關係。

[03:11] This line shows us whether the US economy is growing or contracting at any given point after adjusting for inflation.
  這條線顯示了在扣除通脹因素後，美國經濟在任何給定時間點是增長還是萎縮。

[03:20] When it's above zero, it means that the economy is growing.
  當它高於零時，意味著經濟正在增長。

[03:22] When it's below zero, the economy is contracting.
  當它低於零時，經濟正在萎縮。

[03:23] And as you can see, there's a close relationship between these two lines.
  正如你所見，這兩條線之間存在著密切的關係。

[03:27] When the yield curve moves up or down, economic growth tends to eventually follow with a corresponding move in the same direction.
  當收益率曲線上升或下降時，經濟增長往往最終會隨之朝同一方向移動。

[03:35] In the vast majority of cases where the yield curve inverted, you saw economic growth contract shortly after with the economy tipping into a recession.
  在絕大多數收益率曲線倒掛的情況下，你會看到經濟增長在不久後萎縮，經濟陷入衰退。

[03:43] Now, more recently, we saw the yield curve invert in late 2022.
  現在，最近我們看到收益率曲線在2022年末倒掛。

[03:48] And despite that, the economy has so far remained resilient.
  儘管如此，到目前為止，經濟仍然保持韌性。

[03:50] Leading up to the last three recessions, the yield curve was sitting at pretty much the same levels as it is today.
  在過去三次衰退之前，收益率曲線的水平與今天大致相同。

[03:56] This, of course, excludes the pandemic, which was more of a black swan event.
  當然，這不包括疫情，那更像是一個黑天鵝事件。

[04:01] But in each of these prior cases, the recession actually
  但在這些之前的每一個案例中，衰退實際上

[04:05] began within 3 months of the yield curve being at this exact level.
  始於收益率曲線處於此確切水平的3個月內。

[04:10] And in each of these cases, the economy was also growing at similar levels to today before growth reversed and entered a period of slowdown.
  在這些情況中的每一種情況下，經濟的增長水平也與今天相似，然後增長逆轉並進入了放緩時期。

[04:16] So that means until September of 2026, we are still within a window where today's yield curve signal could hypothetically still play out and accurately forecast an economic downturn.
  這意味著，直到2026年9月，我們仍然處於一個窗口期，屆時今天的收益率曲線信號仍有可能應驗，並準確預測經濟衰退。

[04:30] In other words, there are 3 months left before we'll know with much greater certainty whether the yield curve signal has actually completely failed this time or not.
  換句話說，還有3個月的時間，我們才能更確定地知道收益率曲線信號這次是否完全失效。

[04:39] Now, this all naturally raises the question of whether we should actually expect a recession to occur within this 3month window of time.
  現在，這自然會引發一個問題，我們是否應該預計在未來3個月內會發生衰退。

[04:45] And to answer that question, we need to understand why the economy has so far been able to avoid a recession despite the signal from the yield curve.
  為了回答這個問題，我們需要了解為什麼到目前為止，儘管有收益率曲線的信號，經濟仍能避免衰退。

[04:54] And the key reason comes down to the US job market, which has remained remarkably strong.
  關鍵原因在於美國的就業市場，它一直保持著驚人的強勁。

[04:58] Initial jobless claims that you see here are actually currently sitting at some of the lowest levels since the 1970s.
  您在這裡看到的首次申請失業救濟金人數，實際上目前處於自1970年代以來的最低水平。

[05:04] This line tracks the number of
  這條線追蹤的是...

[05:06] people that are filing for unemployment every week.
  每週都有人申請失業救濟金。

[05:10] Now, typically when the yield curve steepens, initial jobless claims tend to rise along with it.
  通常，當收益率曲線趨於陡峭時，初次申請失業救濟金的人數也會隨之增加。

[05:14] That's because tighter credit conditions eventually slows business activity and leads to layoffs.
  這是因為更嚴格的信貸條件最終會減緩商業活動並導致裁員。

[05:18] A sustained rise in jobless claims is actually one of the defining characteristics of a recession.
  失業救濟金申請人數的持續增加實際上是衰退的定義特徵之一。

[05:25] Now today, the yield curve began steepening in mid 2023.
  現在，收益率曲線在 2023 年年中開始趨於陡峭。

[05:27] And although jobless claims did initially move higher, they have actually been declining since mid 2025.
  儘管初次申請失業救濟金的人數最初確實有所上升，但自 2025 年年中以來，它們實際上一直在下降。

[05:33] This gap that is building here is really unlike anything that we've ever seen before.
  這裡正在形成的這種差距確實是我們前所未見的。

[05:40] So, it does seem like the yield curve's usual playbook is literally breaking this time around.
  所以，這次收益率曲線的 usual playbook 似乎真的失效了。

[05:45] And the reason for why this is happening is actually quite straightforward.
  而這背後的原因其實相當簡單。

[05:49] This is a chart showing us US corporate profits.
  這是一張顯示美國企業利潤的圖表。

[05:53] And they're currently sitting at record highs.
  它們目前處於歷史最高水平。

[05:55] Now, what typically happens heading into a downturn is that businesses see their profits begin to decline.
  現在，通常在經濟下行之前，企業會看到他們的利潤開始下降。

[05:59] And when that happens, they naturally seek to cut costs, which leads to layoffs.
  當這種情況發生時，他們自然會尋求削減成本，這會導致裁員。

[06:03] Throughout history, we can see that
  縱觀歷史，我們可以看到

[06:06] Corporate profits have declined prior to almost every recession.
  企業利潤在幾乎每次衰退前都會下降。

[06:11] Today, despite the yield curve inversion that we had in 2023, corporate profits have remained at record highs.
  今天，儘管我們在 2023 年出現了收益率曲線倒掛，但企業利潤仍保持在歷史高位。

[06:18] In fact, if we zoom in on recent months, they have actually been moving even higher, telling us that businesses don't really have any pressure at all to cut costs and lay workers off right now.
  事實上，如果我們放大到近幾個月，它們實際上一直在走高，這告訴我們企業目前沒有任何削減成本和裁員的壓力。

[06:27] This in our opinion could mean that economic growth actually holds up very well in this 3-month danger window that we highlighted earlier.
  依我們之見，這可能意味著經濟增長在我們早些時候強調的這 3 個月危險窗口期內實際上會表現良好。

[06:36] So we could actually see a scenario where the yield curve continues to steepen over the next few months without the economy heading into a recession.
  因此，我們實際上可能看到一種情況，即收益率曲線在未來幾個月內繼續趨於陡峭，而經濟卻沒有陷入衰退。

[06:45] In fact, if we take the yield curve and we shift it forward by around 12 months, we see that it tends to predict where economic growth is heading by that same margin.
  事實上，如果我們將收益率曲線向前移動約 12 個月，我們會發現它傾向於預測同一幅度內的經濟增長方向。

[06:53] That's simply because changes in credit conditions take time to work their way through the economy before showing up in the actual growth data.
  這僅僅是因為信貸條件的變化需要時間才能在經濟中發揮作用，然後才會體現在實際的增長數據中。

[07:01] And based on this relationship, if the yield curve continues to steepen without having triggered a recession in this danger
  基於這種關係，如果收益率曲線在沒有引發衰退的危險情況下繼續趨於陡峭

[07:06] window, we should actually start to see economic growth picking up from here until mid 2027.
  窗戶，我們實際上應該看到經濟增長從現在開始增長，直到 2027 年中。

[07:11] Now, if inflation begins to ramp up because of the recent oil shock and it forces the Federal Reserve to raise their interest rate again, we could actually see the yield curve turn back down again and go back into an inversion.
  現在，如果由於最近的石油衝擊導致通脹開始飆升，並迫使聯邦儲備委員會再次提高利率，我們實際上可能會看到收益率曲線再次回落並再次陷入倒掛。

[07:24] But even in that scenario, the pressure on the economy would again only be felt with roughly a 12-month lag.
  但即使在那種情況下，對經濟的壓力也將再次在大約 12 個月的滯後期後才能感受到。

[07:30] So, as long as corporate profits continue to hold up and jobless claims remain low, we think the economy is well positioned to grow alongside a steepening yield curve.
  因此，只要企業利潤繼續保持，失業救濟金申請人數保持在低位，我們就認為經濟狀況良好，能夠隨著收益率曲線的陡峭化而增長。

[07:39] And this type of environment tends to be extremely favorable for the stock market.
  而這種環境往往對股市極為有利。

[07:43] Periods where economic growth has been above 2% have systematically coincided with some of the strongest stock market rallies throughout history.
  經濟增長超過 2% 的時期，系統性地與歷史上一些最強勁的股市反彈同時發生。

[07:52] Now, of course, even in these strong periods, there can be five or even 10% corrections.
  當然，即使在這些強勁時期，也可能出現百分之五甚至百分之十的回調。

[07:56] But odds are that we could continue to see a lot of strength for the stock market in the coming months, which proves yet again that waiting around in cash for a
  但很有可能我們在未來幾個月內仍能看到股市的強勁勢頭，這再次證明了在現金中等待

[08:07] Downturn or a big crash to occur is not an optimal strategy.
  發生經濟衰退或大崩盤並非最佳策略。

[08:12] This is the problem that we're solving with our new quantitative model that provides systematic signals on the market.
  這就是我們正在透過我們新的量化模型解決的問題，該模型提供系統性的市場訊號。

[08:18] It incorporates the most powerful economic and market indicators like the yield curve, housing data, unemployment, and distills them into an algorithm that produces one of three signals.
  它納入了最有力的經濟和市場指標，例如殖利率曲線、房地產數據、失業率，並將它們提煉成一個產生三種訊號之一的演算法。

[08:29] Aggressive means 2x leverage long on the QQQ tech ETF.
  積極型表示對 QQQ 科技 ETF 進行 2 倍槓桿做多。

[08:31] Moderate means 75% long on a non-lever position, and cash means to be fully out of the market.
  溫和型表示在非槓桿部位做多 75%，現金型表示完全退出市場。

[08:40] These signals are tailored to maximize returns when the market is moving higher and protect capital when it's not.
  這些訊號旨在市場上漲時最大化回報，並在市場下跌時保護資本。

[08:45] We've been working on this for years and we're extremely proud of it.
  我們為此工作了多年，並且對此感到非常自豪。

[08:49] It represents all of our research compiled into one massive algorithm and we've just released it out to the public.
  它代表了我們所有研究匯總成一個龐大的演算法，而我們剛剛向公眾發布了它。

[08:55] For the launch of this model, we're doing the single biggest deal that we've ever offered on our service that we'll never be doing again.
  為了推出這個模型，我們正在提供我們服務上有史以來最大、且永不再提供的優惠。

[09:02] This deal is only available for a limited time.
  此優惠僅限時提供。

[09:04] You can click on the link below to access it.
  您可以點擊下方的連結進行存取。

[09:06] Thank you for watching.
  感謝您的觀看。