# The Best Macro Strategist Alive Vs. 81 Questions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3Tc9kGXyvc

[00:03] Welcome, welcome everyone.
[00:05] It's Angelo Robles and welcome to At Family Office and for my members of my private community, SFO Continuity.
[00:09] I know you heard me say it before.
[00:12] I'm going to say it again and I always mean it.
[00:15] What a special guest we have on today.
[00:18] [snorts]
[00:20] And I'm titling this and please understand our guest is very humble.
[00:25] This is me doing it but really meaning it: the best macro strategist alive.
[00:30] And I really mean that.
[00:32] Versus 81 questions.
[00:36] Now, are we going to get to 81 questions?
[00:38] I really doubt it.
[00:41] Alice Jordy could give the most concise answers of all time.
[00:42] That probably is asking too much.
[00:45] But our special guest today and I think a third time visitor, Jordi Viser, Viser heads AI macro nexus research for 22V, a product he developed to equip investors with a framework to tackle intertwined dynamics.
[01:03] Of AI-driven innovation and economic transformation.
[01:06] He is the best.
[01:09] He's blown up all over social media.
[01:12] We're so lucky to have him for 90 minutes.
[01:14] Jordy Fischer, welcome back to the show.
[01:17] Angela, it's always a pleasure to be with you.
[01:21] Well, you're very kind.
[01:23] And on that note, since I don't know, we have 81 questions.
[01:25] [laughter]
[01:27] If we get to 30, that will be impressive.
[01:29] But why don't we get to it cuz I have so much on my mind and you're the right person to have on.
[01:34] Why don't we start?
[01:35] You sit at the intersection that I don't know like I don't know anyone else who does, meaning you're a world-class, my words, macro strategist, but you're a hands-on AI builder.
[01:52] That's the key part.
[01:56] Which discipline corrects the other more often?
[01:57] [snorts]
[02:01] Uh, at this point, uh.
[02:04] The domain experience is there.
[02:07] But the domain experience, um, in terms of the nuances, gets better every day because of using AI.
[02:12] And that's actually a great, a great place to start for people who are—I know your clients all have domain experience in something.
[02:23] The easiest way to see the power of AI is actually to gain more nuance in terms of the details and the depth of your own domain experience by having dialogues with AI on a regular basis about it.
[02:35] And let me just give you an example.
[02:38] Yeah, I've spent my time studying markets, studying economy, studying the way stock markets move in relation to economics, how they lead.
[02:47] The best indicator, I agree with Stan Druckenmiller, the best market economist is the stock market itself and how it's moving to be able to ask questions.
[02:57] And I'll end it here with just an example.
[02:59] Before I got on here, um, it's very interesting to me that Apple, everyone on your—
[03:05] Your show right now watching owns Apple.
[03:09] Apple uh made its all-time high on June 8th, I believe.
[03:14] And on June 8th, intraday, that was when they told the world about [clears throat] Siri, AI Siri.
[03:19] The stock traded down and then it traded down sharply.
[03:23] And then last or two weeks ago, they came out and said they were going to have to raise prices because of memory and the stock sold [clears throat] off 6%.
[03:31] So it was effectively more than 10% off the all-time highs and in a matter of 10 more days, it went right back up to the all-time highs.
[03:37] So it has handled bad news and there's something important going on with Apple.
[03:41] So before I came on here, as someone who doesn't have the time to go read every research report, I spent 20 minutes on AI collaborating with Grock with Jad GPT to get all the details on the bigger picture of Apple, not just the minor stories.
[04:01] So that is some way that I never could have done that in the past and I now can talk about Apple in greater detail today.
[04:08] Related to that.
[04:11] I heard you state, and again you mean this from a sense of humbleness, but it's a truth that you almost never met an other macro strategist—most of them, let's be honest, that we would know over age 40 or 50 who actually uses AI, not just investing potentially in one of Jensen Wong's five layered cake of AI, we'll get to that, but actually using.
[04:36] So an entire profession of people that are resistant, that maybe have ego, and they're commenting about bubbles and everything else when they're not actually using it.
[04:50] Like what are they afraid of?
[04:52] Uh, they don't need to use it in their mind.
[04:54] So again, the benefit of AI is for people who are curious, for people who enjoy building stuff, who enjoy learning new things.
[05:02] Uh, I wrote a piece this week on unlearning the Fed.
[05:08] And this was all about the fact that there's this thing called Fed watchers and economists break down every FOMC statement.
[05:16] What are they going to do?
[05:17] Are they going to cut?
[05:18] Are they going to are they going to hike?
[05:18] Are they dovish?
[05:20] Are they're or hawkish?
[05:22] And I wrote a paper that said, "Here is what me working with AI will give you what Kevin Worsh said at his two and a half hour confirmation hearing that overlapped with an interview that he gave last week."
[05:35] Now, the key thing about these two times.
[05:37] Yeah.
[05:38] They happened around the latest FOMC meeting.
[05:40] [clears throat]
[05:42] So, everyone is doing a Fed watching on what came out in his press conference when he gave two long form transcripts that you can break down.
[05:49] And if you go to AI and say, "Give me the overlap between these two transcripts."
[05:52] It basically says he believes AI means the Fed has to change.
[05:58] It can no longer be the same way that it was because anything that happened in the past is no longer useful today.
[06:04] So that is an example of a Kevin Walsh who recognizes in the job that he has that
[06:10] He has to be more dynamic and using AI and thinking about AI when it comes to labor, when it comes to inflation.
[06:17] And that was part of the reason that he was hired and those are the answers that he gave.
[06:20] So I wrote that paper just to remind people that if you're reading an economist who doesn't use AI and doesn't have the ability of doing this, you're actually not getting useful information and you're going to be led astray which honestly again Jordy my words not yours.
[06:35] 99.9% of your macro strategists are not actively really using at minimal they're talking to AI badly at that they're not actually building.
[06:45] Jordy so far is the one exception that I know.
[06:48] Let's stay on that theme just a little longer.
[06:52] If a strategist hasn't felt AI's true power including building how can he or she forecast its impact on productivity at Paul?
[07:07] Angelo, you couldn't have said it any better.
[07:09] And it's actually um it's.
[07:12] The reason why I don't do as many meetings as I used to.
[07:15] I only do meetings with people who are trying to learn about how to use it.
[07:19] And if they want to just take my word for it, I can speak on this conversation between you and I.
[07:27] If it went astray and you just asked one question, said for the next 80 minutes could you talk about how there will never be enough supply of compute for the demand, I could do that for 80 minutes.
[07:40] I could go on and on because I have asked so many questions and gone through it.
[07:45] The problem is if you don't use it, you can't possibly understand the power of it.
[07:50] So I was just in a conversation this morning with a client who reached out and said, "How is this not the same as oil?"
[07:57] We took a lot of capex.
[07:59] We drilled a lot.
[08:00] We got more oil.
[08:01] The price went down and then all the oil stocks went down.
[08:03] How is this not the same thing for the hyperscalers?
[08:07] And I responded back very quickly with literally no delay.
[08:11] And he's a I like.
[08:12] The guy.
[08:13] He's a good thinker.
[08:15] He was just [clears throat] throwing it out there.
[08:16] And I said, "Here's the problem."
[08:18] Oil demand is linear.
[08:19] It grows by a very very small band every year, which is nominal GDP.
[08:23] That's the way they calculate the more oil we need.
[08:29] The problem is the growth of token needs is exponential.
[08:32] It grows at a pace that cannot be measured.
[08:35] The capabilities of the models are growing at exponential pace.
[08:40] So, I'm still paying, as I'm sure you are, $200 for your models.
[08:45] Um, I haven't got to the point yet where I've had to increase my token usage because I'm an efficient user.
[08:52] But the model capability compared to last year is insanely better.
[09:00] The only way that you can know what you can do today versus a year ago for the same amount of money is to be a user.
[09:06] Otherwise, you fall into the trap of token prices are going down this much mean that the debt is going to be an issue.
[09:11] And it's just a very different story than what people recognize.
[09:14] And for the audience who wants more of the technical deeper dive into AI and Jordi doesn't give many 90-minute discussions, we're very fortunate.
[09:22] I promise we're getting into that.
[09:24] Kind of building upon what Jordy just said, I would say October of last year, not even a year, was at maybe 4.5 Opus is where things started to have a really aha moment.
[09:35] You then had the Gemini version around Thanksgiving that I thought was huge.
[09:39] But really the last three months, look at today as we're live and recording with uh GPT 5.6.
[09:47] Now, Fable 5 has been about a week and they extended it for quote unquote for most people.
[09:52] Look at a month ago dynamic workflows.
[09:54] There's been an incredible surge of capability.
[10:00] And for those of you that typed in a sentence, didn't like a response a year ago and said, "This is no good."
[10:04] You do understand it's three and a half years old.
[10:12] And the last 8 to nine months, like Jordy said,
[10:15] On just wasting words, being too verbose, uh, it's been a massive difference.
[10:20] Jordy, changing directions just a little bit.
[10:23] You got to get some curve balls.
[10:25] A Stanford economist said it plainly, college teaches you 80% the AI already knows.
[10:33] So what really is the 20% precisely?
[10:36] This may be thrown not just at the education system being upended but also young people from 18 to 22 and why don't I leave it there as more open-ended and allow you to expand.
[10:53] So uh I I think um I'm going to give people a view as someone who started managing people in his 20s.
[10:59] So I was very fortunate to climb the ranks very quickly at Morgan Stanley.
[11:03] Um, I opened an office for the firm in Brazil in my 20s.
[11:08] So, I've had hundreds of people over the o over about a 30-year period that work for me at any given time and.
[11:17] At some point even more than that.
[11:18] And the reason I bring that up is not to brag to you.
[11:21] It's because that is school to me.
[11:23] I was taking people for the most part that either were coming out of school or people who had come out of school say a decade earlier.
[11:30] The difference between the people that got better, that learn more, is that word I said at the beginning, their curiosity, their insatiable desire to learn new things.
[11:39] Critical thinking is the most critical part of AI.
[11:42] I am a curious person, but I think I focus a lot on thinking about problems from a mindset that I've written about in the past.
[11:53] And if people want to just you know use one famous person as an example, Sherlock Holmes is the type of approach of using AI that is very different than college.
[12:05] It's an observational thing.
[12:07] It's a questioning thing.
[12:09] It's not falling into the trap of memorizing everything and just regurgitating what you got from a book.
[12:12] It's taking what you're learning and connecting it to other dots.
[12:16] The great thing about
[12:18] Artificial intelligence is right now the IQ is absolutely above 140.
[12:23] Um, that means you're talking to the smartest person most likely that you've ever sat in front of and you should be asking lots of great questions and connecting dots.
[12:30] It's a polymath.
[12:32] So, it's much smarter than Albert Einstein at 160 because Albert Einstein was 160 IQ, but if you asked him about football, he knew nothing.
[12:41] If you asked him about tons of different topics, he knew nothing.
[12:44] AI knows everything.
[12:46] So the IQ is the wrong measurement for it.
[12:48] The right measurement and this is where the school gets into a problem.
[12:49] School is broken up into silos.
[12:51] You have experts in each different major, each different area.
[12:56] The problem is with AI, you can connect that great professor in biology with that great professor in physics.
[13:04] Come up with a question where the two link together where one theory and another theory are a way to learn both.
[13:10] That is the more powerful way of learning.
[13:12] And that is the way I always say I'm a mosaic learner.
[13:14] I take a concept, I stick it in what I have in my.
[13:18] Head, and then I get 50 new ones out of that one connection.
[13:23] That is what AI is powerful with.
[13:24] And so for certain people, they're just going to they're going to become better and better.
[13:28] And I think we're going to see a higher probability for the younger people going from say whatever their IQ is, they're going to expand greatly into other fields and just know a lot more about a lot more things.
[13:36] And a lot of things to uncover long form here with Jordy including going over the markets stock picks.
[13:42] We're going to go hardcore related to what you just said.
[13:47] So it's 140 to 150 although a little bit linear IQ but very broad.
[13:49] Einstein was about 160.
[13:52] Yet the average user now talk about the user experience.
[13:55] Let's be honest, they use it in its most basic form.
[14:00] They limit themselves to one model.
[14:02] They have no idea what open weight means.
[14:04] We'll get to that shortly.
[14:06] And they're using it to rewrite or draft their emails.
[14:10] They're still talking to it.
[14:12] They're not building.
[14:14] How do they get the confidence to go to the next step?
[14:17] Well, this is where, you know, you mentioned Opus 4.5.
[14:20] Was uh an important place.
[14:22] And this is the free gift I'm giving to everyone right off the uh the bat.
[14:26] We we've seen some consolidation and people worried about compute.
[14:28] You have all of the the bare porn out there on on we're we're spending too much money and we're not I what what Angelo described for you guys is coding agents.
[14:38] Okay, so that was the first agentic window we entered, but that was purely coding agents.
[14:45] The answer to the question of when are people going to use it before we started this Angelo said, "Hey Siri, no response."
[14:52] Then he had he said, "Hey Siri again."
[14:54] His computer responded and my computer responded.
[14:57] So it's not very smart the second that Siri allows you to do something and the reason Siri is so important and the reason hey Siri is important right now if you want to find information at what time a restaurant opens you have to open your phone then you have to go type something or speak into it and then it will give you the time eventually what will happen it'll.
[15:21] Just be on all the time and that's when people will start getting better with questions.
[15:25] I cook; I would love to not have to say, "Hey, create I want to create a recipe on how to grill a Wagu beastro steak."
[15:34] I want to do it on the grill.
[15:36] I want to make a chimmy chur.
[15:38] What ingredients do I need to be able to do that?
[15:40] If I could have a free flowing conversation without having to open my phone and Alexa can't do this yet.
[15:44] Siri can't do this yet.
[15:46] Meta can't do this with their glasses yet.
[15:48] At some point for everyone watching, they're not going to have to worry on their work side as much.
[15:54] But it is the voiceto tech side that becomes the most important.
[15:56] It is the dialogue side that is what's going to change things.
[16:00] And the reason I brought the coding agents up, it is estimated that it will be a 20 to 30 times jump in compute need once we have that breakthrough moment which is coming within the next year.
[16:12] So there is no reason to worry about the overbuild.
[16:15] There's no reason to worry about any of this stuff.
[16:18] It just gives you an opportunity to buy into stocks in this.
[16:22] Side at a discount because people are worried about things which are just not going to happen.
[16:28] Well, I could say related to that, I believe I've heard you argue that GDP, which goes back what to the 20s or 30s, is somewhat of an outdated metric.
[16:40] At minimal, it's a metric from a more industrial era.
[16:43] And the important part, it doesn't measure everything that matters.
[16:48] Please tell us more.
[16:50] Yeah, GDP was set up to measure transactions with inside a physical world and the digital world has been breaking away from it.
[17:00] We've had to revise GDP by significant numbers.
[17:03] And I'm we're not talking, you know, a few hundred thousand.
[17:09] We're talking about hundreds of billions of revisions to say, you know what, we underestimated GDP.
[17:15] And the reason was because this intangible thing is worth a lot more money.
[17:19] Think of things like IP of research, all of those things.
[17:21] If
[17:24] You've built a business, even if the business isn't good, a lot of businesses sell for a lot of money because of IP.
[17:30] Uh in China, the talk was always that China was taking IP when companies would go over there.
[17:35] IP is a very valuable asset, but there was no way to measure it inside GDP.
[17:38] So, as the world has become more digital, as IP or ideas have become kind of the framework, you've had GDP become less useful, we're much closer in looking like a recession than we actually are.
[17:51] That's why every time there's been this recession call since the iPhone came out, they've all been wrong.
[17:58] And this is we're now on 16 years.
[18:00] And the only time we had a recession is when the government decided to shut down the economy and then very quickly we were back to new all-time highs in GDP.
[18:07] So every time you hear someone say there's a recession coming on, they cannot happen there.
[18:11] It's impossible for a recession to happen.
[18:15] And the reason I say it's impossible is because the concept doesn't exist the way that it did.
[18:19] We're actually not hiring anyone over the last 12 months.
[18:23] There's been small amounts.
[18:24] But when you.
[18:25] Aggregate everything, it's been basically zero.
[18:27] If you take out health care, it's been negative.
[18:29] So think about that.
[18:31] We've had GDP grow.
[18:33] We've had the stock market go up sharply to the point where people called it a bubble.
[18:35] But we're not hiring anyone.
[18:37] So this is what is happening to GDP is that as productivity and efficiency start to get remeasured and the only way that can happen is through measuring measuring the intangibles with inside GDP that is not useful and I will just leave it at this.
[18:51] You're going to see a dramatic shift in the next five years because that consumer agent thing that I mentioned more of GDP the transactions will be done by agents than by humans by the time we get to 2030 which means when you say into your phone hey Siri I want to go to Italy go book me the trip this is how much money I want to spend these are the days that I care about or just go give me five options and what it can be and show me all of the details when it goes and books the trip it's not going to do it the way you did.
[19:20] It's not going to search the way that you did.
[19:22] It's going to be much more efficient.
[19:25] You're going to tell it, "I want to get it at the lowest price, but I want it to be certain types of quality hotels."
[19:31] You're not capable of doing that as well as a computer.
[19:33] And that's the way all transactions are going to be done.
[19:36] So, the velocity of money is going to increase dramatically, and it's going to be because of AI agents.
[19:41] And a little bit of a heads up for those out there, we're very fortunate.
[19:43] Jord's been very kind at some of my in-person events over the years.
[19:50] Actually, the first time was 2016 when we were both in a little bit of a different life.
[19:55] Uh, so I've known Jordy a long time.
[19:57] This September at my forum September 15th and 16th up on my website, a Jordy will be a 90inute effectively keynote.
[20:07] Uh, we do believe in long form as you could tell from my digital.
[20:09] We like to do deeper dives.
[20:11] We like to maybe make you, myself, everyone, the audience a little bit uncomfortable asking tough questions.
[20:17] So learn a little bit more if you're a member effectively at my website angelro.com and we look forward to seeing Jordy.
[20:27] then. Jordy, this is one of the
[20:29] questions I'm going to ask you. I always
[20:31] ask you. I think you're getting a little
[20:32] frustrated having me ask it for probably
[20:35] the fifth time now and needing to
[20:37] reanswer it. And I have to admit I'm
[20:39] having a hard time coming on board to
[20:42] your side, but I want to. I want to help
[20:45] me get over here. Here it comes. Jordy,
[20:48] the US debt, it's $39 trillion.
[20:53] We have a $2 trillion deficit and
[20:56] growing every year. We are printing
[20:59] money like there's no tomorrow. Our
[21:01] deficit is climbing up up and up. And
[21:04] though I don't think you're happy about
[21:05] it, you don't really appear to be losing
[21:08] any sleep. Why?
[21:10] uh very simply because the total net
[21:13] worth of the country is far greater than
[21:15] the 39 trillion by about five times now.
[21:19] Um debt is one side of the equation. So
[21:23] if the government right now is allowing
[21:25] debt to happen and we're having a
[21:29] multiple of that being acrewed through
[21:32] countries putting money in here because
[21:34] we have technology, we have the ability
[21:37] of building this. We have a stock market
[21:38] worth an enormous amount of money of
[21:40] which foreigners own as well. The asset
[21:43] side of the equation is is enormous. So
[21:46] it's not that it's not a problem meaning
[21:50] okay it matters but corporate debt isn't
[21:52] growing. So as the public debt has gone
[21:56] higher we've seen the stock market go
[21:59] higher without any growth in debt that
[22:02] matters.
[22:03] So that is the side of the equation when
[22:05] I was worried about it. I was worried
[22:07] about it because of the corporate debt
[22:10] and the contagion that happened leading
[22:12] into the great financial crisis. What
[22:14] has happened since then is the debt for
[22:16] the United States of America has
[22:19] completely changed and yes it's in the
[22:21] government hands but you cannot take
[22:23] this and this is where I differ with
[22:25] people like Ray Dalio and I've gone
[22:26] through this with you many many times
[22:29] the if if you're using history and you
[22:32] say well this will end up just like the
[22:33] great depression I I that's not the way
[22:37] this is going to end we are going to end
[22:39] with humanoids we are going to end with
[22:42] cancer being cured Third, we are going
[22:44] to end with so many things that people
[22:46] cannot possibly understand. And this is
[22:49] not in a hundred years. This is coming
[22:52] in the next five. So if all of a sudden
[22:56] humanoids are doing all of the work and
[22:59] the cost is going to zero, the debt
[23:02] absolutely does not matter. And that's
[23:04] the whole point of this. There'll be a
[23:06] transference always in what will go on.
[23:09] and most of the debt that will go
[23:11] through the decline. If I went through
[23:12] all of the entitlement issues, and I
[23:14] wrote about this recently because I
[23:16] think it is an important thing to keep
[23:17] in context with the Fed, it's very hard
[23:20] for the Fed to raise rates when they
[23:22] have this issue of the debt and the
[23:24] budget deficit, which is sitting at 5 to
[23:26] 6% right now. And at the same point, the
[23:30] entitlement issue is going to get worse
[23:31] no matter what they do. And so, if they
[23:33] raise rates, they're just making it
[23:34] worse. So, it's not that I don't believe
[23:36] it matters. I just think it's not going
[23:38] to change what's going on because you
[23:39] have to lead in the exponential side as
[23:41] well which is going to overwhelm this
[23:43] linear growth.
[23:45] And I think related to that besides the
[23:48] fact that the world primarily settles in
[23:50] dollars that plays to your advantage as
[23:52] well. Uh look at a country like Norway
[23:56] which by the way is a capitalist
[23:58] country. watch my cowboy hat video from
[24:00] yesterday relative to talking about
[24:02] socialism all that but I don't want to
[24:05] get sidetracked but it relates to that
[24:07] Jordy they're sitting on a $2 trillion
[24:10] sovereign wealth fund look at the giant
[24:12] sovereign wealth funds in the Middle
[24:14] East and around the world where is
[24:16] likely 80% or more of their capital
[24:20] coming to here in the US in our markets
[24:24] explain how that maybe confirms what you
[24:27] said that maybe I'm worrying a little
[24:30] bit too much about the debt.
[24:32] We need um so I I think the best way to
[24:35] put it let's let's view every country as
[24:37] a company. Which country right now would
[24:40] you want to be taking debt right now?
[24:43] The ones that are producing the newest
[24:46] and most innovative stuff. So that's who
[24:49] you want to take the debt. We're taking
[24:51] the debt to help this grow. When we put
[24:53] the AI action plan into effect last
[24:55] year, this was to win the race in AI
[24:58] against China, but this was also to make
[25:01] sure that the Norwegians and the
[25:03] Europeans would be needing to buy our
[25:05] stuff. You don't have Ukraine sit this
[25:09] is all about innovation and technology.
[25:12] Every single thing that people need to
[25:14] purchase at this point, whether people
[25:15] like it or not in terms of the
[25:17] advancements of technology and now
[25:19] artificial intelligence, we are so far
[25:21] ahead. If I asked you when you said the
[25:23] best models, these are all US companies.
[25:26] There are no frontier models that are in
[25:28] the cloud that compete with the US
[25:30] models. None. China has open source
[25:32] models. That's a completely different
[25:34] thing. And for those, they're just
[25:35] distilling our models again, that IP
[25:38] situation, and recreating a version
[25:40] which is six to nine months behind. But
[25:42] if if that's what you were viewing it
[25:44] on, who would you allow a company to
[25:46] take debt? You would want it to be a
[25:48] company that was growing their revenues
[25:50] and their earnings extremely fast. And
[25:52] the US is dominating that and has been
[25:54] dominating that since the iPhone.
[25:58] A fellow macro strategist, uh, she
[26:00] hasn't been on in 5 years. I got to
[26:02] reach out again. Lynn Alden says the
[26:05] best product Coca-Cola ever sold was its
[26:09] bond or bonds, not Coca-Cola. Borrow it
[26:12] too while money supply grows at seven.
[26:16] buy scarcer assets with the spread.
[26:19] Right or wrong, shorty? I love Lynn. So,
[26:22] I I was listening to her this morning on
[26:24] an interview with Natalie Brunell. So,
[26:26] for sure.
[26:27] Yeah. I I' I've listened to four
[26:28] podcasts so far this morning and Lynn
[26:30] Olden have me one of them. Lynn is great
[26:32] and she simplifies things um in a very
[26:35] very simple way and that is just a very
[26:37] simple way to go through it. Um, and I
[26:40] do believe that as people start to
[26:41] think, I I've said this before at at
[26:44] your events, um, I don't go into a lot
[26:46] of details on it, but my whole AI macro
[26:49] nexus is the connection between the
[26:51] macro or tradi, everything that has
[26:54] happened in the world up until 2022, the
[26:57] impact that AI is having as it become
[27:00] democratized and as it just starts to
[27:02] impact all of our lives, and the
[27:03] eventuality of consumer agents and
[27:06] humanoids starting to get into the world
[27:08] of crypto and the financial guardrail is
[27:10] changing. The capital structure of the
[27:11] world is changing. And so this whole
[27:14] concept of what bonds are used for and
[27:16] the cope thing and everything along
[27:17] these lines, it's just changing. And
[27:19] that's why when you look at the debt, if
[27:21] there was a serious problem in our debt,
[27:23] I will say it to everyone, we would not
[27:26] have tenure rates at 4 and a.5%. We
[27:29] would have them at 12, 13, 14. You guys
[27:32] remember what was happening in Greece. I
[27:34] lived in Brazil. I opened an office
[27:35] during the 1997 to99 period. When you
[27:38] have a debt problem, your bonds trade at
[27:41] 20 cents in the dollar, 30 cents in the
[27:42] dollar, 40 cents in the dollar, not with
[27:44] rates at 4%.
[27:47] Staying somewhat on that theme, money
[27:50] supply, and your friend Raul Paul has
[27:52] spoken about this as well. Money supply
[27:55] grows at 7% a year. The average raise
[27:58] maybe is 2 or 3%. That's a silent 4%
[28:03] annual tax everyone paid in salary. Is
[28:09] that gap not inequality, not ideology,
[28:12] but the real engine of the political
[28:15] rage that we're now watching take place?
[28:19] Yes. Um, so I I I do believe this is a
[28:23] combination of things, but I definitely
[28:26] um
[28:28] so it's good for people who take risk.
[28:31] Um, and again, I I I joke about this
[28:34] with retail traders who are getting, you
[28:37] know, saying they're creating a bubble
[28:39] and this and that. And I just look and I
[28:41] go, "No, the institutional people I've
[28:43] known for a long time have already made
[28:44] millions of dollars.
[28:46] The problem is they have no reason to
[28:49] gamble. They have no reason. They have
[28:51] no they get no joy out of it. Um if you
[28:54] already have if you're going to go to a
[28:55] poker table and the hands are $5 and
[28:57] you're worth $20 billion, you're not
[28:59] going to really enjoy the game as much
[29:01] as you would as if a hand was a million
[29:03] dollars. And that's what ends up
[29:05] happening with all of this stuff in
[29:06] terms of the money supply and the way
[29:08] the distribution of wealth has fallen
[29:10] out. If you don't have an education,
[29:12] it's very hard to embrace AI because you
[29:14] didn't go to school and didn't have the
[29:16] ability of spending time. If you have
[29:18] health issues, which also are associated
[29:21] right now with the inequality, the
[29:23] country has reached a point where the
[29:25] demographics are an issue. The
[29:28] polarization is coming because the kids
[29:30] want to live as well as their parents
[29:32] did. And this is arguably the first time
[29:33] that it's hard for people to move up the
[29:35] corporate ladder and make as much money
[29:37] unless they already have money and they
[29:38] have it in the market. So their parents
[29:40] are worth a lot more than the kids are
[29:42] and it just creates this disconnect
[29:44] between the way they are. And as someone
[29:45] who lives in Williamsburg, Brooklyn who
[29:49] watch Mum Donnie sweep the entire place
[29:51] and to see what went on and to realize
[29:53] these are college educated kids, many of
[29:56] them whose parents are paying for them
[29:58] to live in Williamsburg, which has
[29:59] become one of the the more expensive
[30:01] places in the country. I can see why
[30:04] they're angry. I can see they have
[30:06] either had their their they either have
[30:08] student loans or they had it paid for
[30:10] but one thing is certain they don't have
[30:12] the job that they thought they would
[30:14] have and that's the other angle that
[30:15] gets to be an issue is that AI is a
[30:18] disruptive labor job there everyone can
[30:20] get a job but you may not be able to get
[30:23] the job you envision when you were going
[30:24] to school and that's the problem is
[30:26] there's no more corporate ladder there
[30:28] may not even be the job that you wanted
[30:30] available if you wanted to be an
[30:31] accountant it's very hard to be an
[30:33] accountant now if you wanted to be go
[30:35] through all of the legal professions,
[30:36] everything. AI is standing in front. So,
[30:39] how do you become a partner 20 years
[30:40] down the line if AI is coming in two
[30:42] years?
[30:43] Oh boy, that's loaded, Jordy. And I have
[30:46] spoken about that and including as of
[30:48] yesterday, the over production of
[30:50] elites. And then you look at the young
[30:54] people in college, and I have one, and
[30:56] you have children relatively in the same
[30:58] age bracket. And I know I'm being a
[31:00] little bit limiting here. Eric Schmidt
[31:02] comes to give a commencement and you
[31:04] walk out like I get it. I understand the
[31:08] burden you're taking on and how AI is
[31:10] changing things. But and this definitely
[31:13] applies to my world of the single family
[31:16] office where the average executive is
[31:18] over 50 years old and I'm trying to
[31:20] teach them forget investing in AI that's
[31:23] pretty obvious. using it to make better
[31:26] decisions and be more productive. And
[31:29] I'm getting resistance
[31:32] commonly through ego,
[31:35] which underlying a lot of that is fear.
[31:38] And those are normal human emotions. So
[31:41] relating to what you said and maybe also
[31:43] tying it into my world of people in
[31:46] finance and family office professionals,
[31:48] I ask you again differently than how we
[31:50] started. How do we get people to want to
[31:53] learn and take that first step?
[31:57] Um,
[31:59] I I I I wish I had a better answer for
[32:01] this. All I can tell you is how I feel
[32:03] and how I I try to bring that message to
[32:06] my children. Um, I grew up very poor.
[32:09] So, my father was a construction worker.
[32:11] He was a core driller. Uh,
[32:14] we didn't have money. I mean, I I lived
[32:16] on canned vegetables and canned and and
[32:18] bad uh ground beef for for most meals.
[32:22] Um I just don't literally think
[32:26] like a victim. I don't I don't believe
[32:28] that the world keeps me down. Um I
[32:31] started my own business. I was in the
[32:32] hedge fund industry. I was at Morgan
[32:34] Stanley. I had two separate successful
[32:36] careers and I could have stayed in that
[32:38] and I decided to become an AI consultant
[32:40] to help people like your clients to help
[32:43] people retail anyone across the world
[32:45] and I've had huge
[32:48] uh I my business is growing so rapidly
[32:51] and part of it is because I'm helping
[32:53] people get away from the noise so from
[32:55] an investment standpoint they can make
[32:56] money. I'm helping them with agency and
[32:59] the ability of taking control of like
[33:01] you said the learning you can learn at
[33:03] any age. In fact, the best learners have
[33:05] been and this is probably the most
[33:07] exciting thing I'll say on here and I
[33:08] will attack the the 20 and 30 year olds
[33:10] to some degree um just in terms of again
[33:13] this Williamsburg thing but
[33:15] [clears throat] the greatest thing has
[33:16] been the 50 year olds that I've met
[33:17] whose kids are like ours or college so
[33:20] they're either empty nesters or whatever
[33:22] but they have the time to learn AI. That
[33:25] has been the most powerful bracket. Now,
[33:26] the reason I bring them up is I also had
[33:29] a lot of people in that age bracket that
[33:31] lost their jobs on Wall Street just
[33:34] because of their age and their cost and
[33:37] they were replaced with younger people.
[33:38] And those people would come into my
[33:40] office and say, "How do I do what you
[33:42] did? How do I transition into the hedge
[33:43] fund industry? How do I I I got to make
[33:45] more money?" And what I heard from them
[33:48] was kind of this victim side. The same
[33:50] thing I hear from the people, a lot of
[33:52] them in Williamsburg saying their boss
[33:54] doesn't know what they doesn't doesn't
[33:57] appreciate them. Um, I didn't sign up
[33:59] for this. They're hard on me. I don't
[34:01] want to work these hours. I don't want
[34:03] to go into the office. So, I I I see
[34:05] where this is. I just pray that everyone
[34:08] starts using artificial intelligence and
[34:10] realizes you control your own destiny
[34:12] like nobody like never before because
[34:15] you can build things and you can learn
[34:16] new things every single day. And so I
[34:19] I'll just leave it at that. I don't
[34:20] understand that concept. My kids don't.
[34:22] They have to work. And maybe it's
[34:24] because I grew up with someone who
[34:25] worked so hard to make so little that
[34:27] you just appreciate the fact that if you
[34:29] have an opportunity, you should grab it.
[34:31] I come from a a similar background,
[34:33] Jordy, and we're actually I think I'm a
[34:35] pinch older than you, but we're very
[34:37] much in the same genre. There's a saying
[34:40] that I said yesterday. I've said it
[34:42] before. I'll clean it up a little bit.
[34:44] Weak people think the world is against
[34:47] them. Strong people don't care if it is.
[34:51] You cannot be successful with the victim
[34:55] mindset. Even if you're somewhat
[34:58] correct, I get it. I'm half minority,
[35:01] grew up in a broken home. There were
[35:04] things that were against me. I didn't
[35:06] have the advantages. And there's
[35:07] millions of people more successful than
[35:10] me. But we have to overcome struggle. I
[35:14] learned how to get up at five o'clock,
[35:16] how to put in the grind. I had a hard
[35:18] head. I was slower to learn than others.
[35:21] Maybe I have limitations. That didn't
[35:23] stop me from moving forward and adapting
[35:25] as I went along. But let's move on. Uh
[35:29] Jeremy Grantham, a titan in the world of
[35:32] finance. I heard him, and you're a
[35:35] podcast junkie, recently on Diary of a
[35:38] CEO. And I also watched Tom Billu's
[35:41] breakdown of the video, which wasn't too
[35:43] much of a breakdown. He basically agreed
[35:46] with everything. For an 87year-old,
[35:49] Granthm is sharp as attack. He says many
[35:52] things that make sense and we all could
[35:55] learn from him. But
[35:58] [sighs]
[35:59] he's calling this a classic. Maybe he's
[36:02] right. You could disprove it. A
[36:04] latestage bubble.
[36:07] Is he right? Is he wrong?
[36:12] I mean, first of all, he's wrong because
[36:14] the word means nothing.
[36:16] So, you know, I'm going to go back just
[36:19] a little bit because you use the word
[36:20] that whenever I speak.
[36:23] Success is something that is personal.
[36:26] Meaning, everyone can determine success
[36:29] differently. It there is no definition
[36:32] of it. There is no you are successful.
[36:34] What does that mean? It depends on what
[36:36] you believed. If your parents thought if
[36:39] your father made a billion dollars and
[36:41] you ended up making a million dollars,
[36:43] that person wouldn't be viewed the same
[36:45] as someone who made a million dollars
[36:46] and their father made $50,000. It's just
[36:50] a personal thing that comes down based
[36:52] on some random stuff. I I think the same
[36:56] thing always happens with bubbles
[36:58] because here's what everyone who says
[37:00] it's a bubble. When you ask them, "When
[37:03] does it end?" Oh, we don't know. We
[37:05] don't know when the bubble ends. We just
[37:07] know it will end. So, let me get this
[37:09] straight. If a stock goes from one to
[37:12] 20, but then it goes from 20 to 200, and
[37:15] you say at 20, it's a bubble, and then
[37:17] it goes to 200 and it falls to 100, were
[37:19] they right? Jeremy Grantham has been
[37:21] doing that forever. So, I've never met
[37:24] the man. I find everything he says,
[37:27] everything. You're a better person than
[37:28] I. Everything that he says to be the
[37:31] exact same view over time. I have never
[37:34] heard him. He's been waiting for the
[37:36] market to get to a single digit PE for a
[37:39] long time.
[37:39] Yes.
[37:40] It hasn't done that. So, the fact that
[37:42] it hasn't done it for my entire career
[37:44] means he's been wrong for my entire
[37:46] career except for one time.
[37:48] The great
[37:50] Yeah. And and again, it'll happen at
[37:52] times. So, I just I literally just did
[37:54] something to make it real time for
[37:56] people. Samsung just had its second
[38:00] worst 10day performance in the last 25
[38:04] years.
[38:06] It is still up nine times where it was
[38:11] less than a year and a half ago. It is
[38:13] set to make this year 217 billion. Do
[38:18] you know this number, Angelo?
[38:20] No.
[38:21] Okay. So, this is a Korean company.
[38:22] They're going to make two. They're
[38:23] estimated to make $217 billion this
[38:26] year.
[38:26] Incredible.
[38:27] Samsung is a big company. It's Everyone
[38:29] owns a Samsung thing. They might have a
[38:31] TV. They might have a phone. It's one of
[38:33] the largest companies in the world. That
[38:35] is more money than the company made the
[38:38] prior 40 years.
[38:40] Wow. This is not a bubble. That is an
[38:43] earning story. So again, Jeremy Grantham
[38:46] doesn't use AI. He doesn't understand
[38:49] it. And if he doesn't understand AI, of
[38:51] course he's going to call it a bubble
[38:52] because things like Samsung have never
[38:54] happened before. So he views this as
[38:56] well this is a bubble because this is
[38:58] overinvestment. This is people buying
[39:00] into something. But he doesn't know
[39:02] anything about AI. That's why I'm here.
[39:04] That's why everyone watching this who
[39:06] wants to learn. I don't have a bias in
[39:08] this. I used to be called a perma bear
[39:10] when I came back from Brazil. I went to
[39:12] Silicon Valley in 2013 to answer a
[39:15] simple question. How can a company like
[39:18] Amazon traded Infinity PE every year and
[39:22] they're a book company. How could and I
[39:24] had to answer that question. The day
[39:26] that I did that, Jeremy Grantham was
[39:28] also calling it a bubble. So I did that
[39:30] to go figure out why I was wrong, why it
[39:34] could trade there. And I went to
[39:36] Singularity University. And so when we
[39:38] talk about moonshots and Peter
[39:39] Diamandis, my journey [clears throat] to
[39:41] what we're talking about today began in
[39:42] 2013 to get off of the bearish stance
[39:46] that I still had coming out of the great
[39:47] financial crisis.
[39:50] Yeah. I mean, uh, I shouldn't say this.
[39:54] It's not going to do me any favors.
[39:56] Listen, Diary of a CEO, Chris
[39:59] Williamson, Billy U, I like them all.
[40:01] They're a thousandx more popular than
[40:04] me. They also have teams and teams of
[40:07] researchers and people, some of them
[40:09] effectively have private equity backing,
[40:12] spend six figures per episode, sometimes
[40:14] promoting. Could you do a better job of
[40:18] making your guests? Now, I'm not maybe a
[40:21] good representation here because Jordy
[40:23] and I outside of maybe the debt probably
[40:25] agree on about 95%. But I think I'm
[40:28] somewhat known for making guests
[40:30] sometimes feel a little uncomfortable,
[40:33] especially since I don't have a huge
[40:34] amount of followers. Like, why am I
[40:36] going through this [ __ ] with Angelo when
[40:38] I don't really need it? Like, I find it
[40:40] very frustrating that Stephen at Diary
[40:42] of a CEO, I'll never be 1,000th as
[40:45] popular as you. Could you challenge your
[40:47] guest a little harder, please? That's
[40:51] just me talking. uh Grantham an asset
[40:55] gatherer happy getting 6 or 7% a year.
[40:59] Uh now we've both been a little critical
[41:01] of some things with him and with Dalio.
[41:04] We hinted at it. I think later in our
[41:06] interview there'll be deeper things
[41:08] where we may have different perspectives
[41:10] that we could bring up, but I'm going to
[41:11] throw another name at you Jordy. You're
[41:14] getting uh some of the ones that you may
[41:16] disagree with. The very intelligent
[41:19] Michael Bur stated, "The AI narrative
[41:23] may die a death by a thousand cuts." And
[41:26] he does bring up some interesting things
[41:29] relative to kind of chip longevity,
[41:32] creative accounting. I don't think he's
[41:35] like incorrect, but you may have a
[41:38] different perspective. Tell us more.
[41:42] He's another perma bear. I I I I don't I
[41:45] don't know how to say this. Um, so I'm
[41:47] gonna I'm gonna use an analogy
[41:50] in the world of sports.
[41:52] I just watched my favorite team. I have
[41:54] a basketball up here signed by Bernard
[41:56] King. I'm a huge Knicks fan.
[41:58] Mike Green, the announcer of NBA
[42:01] playoffs, did the game.
[42:04] He's a huge Knicks fan. He doesn't go on
[42:07] there and said and and call the game
[42:10] from the perspective of a Knicks fan.
[42:12] Not at all.
[42:13] He's he's balanced. I can't listen to a
[42:16] single person in life who has one
[42:18] opinion. I don't know why other people
[42:20] do. The only reason Jeremy Grantham is
[42:22] on and Michael Bur has he makes over $20
[42:26] million a year in a newsletter now being
[42:29] bearish. Why would anyone listen to him
[42:31] other than to go find and like you said,
[42:34] they're both smart. Jeremy Grantham's
[42:36] very smart and Michael Bur, they're both
[42:37] very, very smart, but they say the same
[42:41] thing always. So, I don't have any value
[42:44] in that because it's a waste of my time.
[42:46] I can go into AI now and say, "Give me
[42:49] Michael Bur's latest views and where do
[42:51] you think he's being bombastic and where
[42:54] do you think he has some reality? Where
[42:58] are the interesting points?" That's the
[42:59] way I use it. I don't throw him out of
[43:01] AI. I just don't get caught listening to
[43:04] him because it's the same story over and
[43:06] over again. And in a world of my life,
[43:10] every minute matters to me. You only get
[43:12] so many minutes on the planet. So to
[43:14] waste them on Jeremy Grantham and to
[43:16] waste them on Michael Bur to me is a
[43:19] complete waste of time, but to each his
[43:20] own. And these guys are very popular. So
[43:22] they're like you said, they're more
[43:24] successful than me in many, many
[43:25] measurements. For me, they're not my cup
[43:27] of tea.
[43:28] Oh, you're giving me so many good short
[43:31] clips. Thank you, Jeremy. [laughter] And
[43:33] I I'll there they will. And by the way,
[43:35] Jeremy Grantham during COVID. I don't
[43:38] know why. He did appear on my show. He
[43:42] only insisted to talk about green
[43:44] energy. I couldn't ask him anything
[43:46] else, but it's up there somewhere years
[43:48] ago in my platform. And two years before
[43:50] that, I met him. He actually spoke at my
[43:52] New York event. And again, he's very
[43:54] eloquent and smart. No doubt about it.
[43:57] [snorts]
[43:57] Uh here's a question that I think you
[43:59] may disagree to some degree with the
[44:01] premise of if AI takes jobs, but let's
[44:04] talk a little bit about it. Every AI
[44:07] forecast that no one kind of a question,
[44:09] they really followed to the end kind of
[44:12] the retail bid, the 401k, the paycheck
[44:15] deducted into index funds, whatever
[44:18] every two weeks. if the structural buyer
[44:22] of American equities. So if AI takes
[44:25] jobs effectively, who's buying the stock
[44:29] and where's the money being pumped into
[44:31] these equities?
[44:33] Again, the market's being driven by
[44:35] earnings. So when whenever people ask
[44:38] the question who can buy the stocks, who
[44:41] can spend the money at this, the
[44:42] government is spending each year five to
[44:46] six% above the revenues that they're
[44:48] taking in. So we're in an expansionary
[44:52] monetary situation and that is
[44:55] contributing to the growth that we're
[44:56] having and everything and revenues are
[44:58] growing. So there's a multiple on top of
[45:00] it. At some point this game will stop
[45:04] and I do want to make sure people
[45:06] realize because I don't know if we've
[45:09] talked about it. Um but I don't have a
[45:12] positive view of
[45:15] assets in general past 2030. Um, and I
[45:19] think we're seeing some of the signs of
[45:20] that. So, I don't want people to think
[45:22] that in all of this stuff of me saying
[45:24] that I've now embraced this permabull
[45:26] side. I think AI is the most disruptive
[45:29] force. I think crypto is the most the
[45:32] second most disruptive force. And I
[45:34] think all of these are going to come to
[45:35] a head by 2030. And that's because of
[45:39] reaching AGI, which is happening now,
[45:41] reaching ASI, which is going to mean
[45:44] solving a lot of commodity issues, a
[45:46] whole bunch of things. But most
[45:48] importantly, what we're witnessing
[45:49] already is instant competition.
[45:52] Competition comes out of nowhere. And
[45:55] everything in assets is based on time.
[45:58] How much time do you have for remote?
[46:00] The S&P 500 is not a company. The S&P
[46:03] 500 is an index that is amorphous that
[46:05] changes over time with new new entrance
[46:08] and new losers leaving. At some point,
[46:11] if the thing speeds up so fast, which is
[46:13] what AI will do, you will have
[46:15] destruction of many many public
[46:16] companies. So, I've said repeatedly that
[46:19] I don't know which companies that people
[46:21] own will still be here in a decade. I
[46:23] honestly don't know if any of them will.
[46:26] You cannot compete with AI. And you've
[46:29] seen that with Salesforce.com. You've
[46:31] seen that with Adobe. So part of my
[46:33] message to everyone on this stuff is
[46:35] just
[46:37] there is a bearish argument, but it's
[46:39] not a bearish one, meaning then we're
[46:41] going to go through a recession, then
[46:42] we're going to go through a depression.
[46:44] It is one where your investments may not
[46:47] work as well as you think as a as an
[46:50] aggregate number and that people if they
[46:52] want to make money, they probably have
[46:53] to take more risk than they realize to
[46:55] do that. But they're absolutely gonna
[46:57] have to think outside the box and not
[46:59] listen to people about what history
[47:02] says. And that's the most important
[47:03] thing. We are every day is like five
[47:07] yesterdays. That's how fast things are
[47:09] changing. And if you have that kind of
[47:11] pace, you're looking at something a
[47:13] decade ago, which is like paying
[47:15] attention to something 50 years ago. And
[47:17] if you go back to something 50 years ago
[47:18] and I said to you, do you think this
[47:20] could ever happen again? The answer is
[47:22] usually no. It's not going to happen
[47:24] because innovation gets so far ahead of
[47:26] the past that we're never going to see
[47:28] kids riding around in the backseat of
[47:30] car without a car seat. You make
[47:31] progress in life and eventually you get
[47:33] to the point that there's no way to go
[47:35] through. So I I just I I want to make
[47:37] sure people leave uh they hear that from
[47:39] me because this is not a perma
[47:40] optimistic story. I actually do believe
[47:42] that what you said um the market's going
[47:44] to continue to go higher because we're
[47:46] spending tons of money and most
[47:48] importantly we are not at that moment in
[47:50] AGI and you're going to see just
[47:53] tremendous productivity leverage coming
[47:54] up in the next five years.
[47:57] Jordy, I did hear you state that
[47:59] potentially all the companies could
[48:01] quote unquote turn over and let's
[48:03] broadly go whatever Fortune 500, S&P
[48:06] 500. Looking back over 10ear blocks, I
[48:09] think that organically has happened at
[48:10] probably 50 to 55%. But now we're in a
[48:14] different world. AI is a technology that
[48:16] we've never seen before and it's
[48:18] changing everything very quickly. You're
[48:20] implying it may theoretically be a
[48:22] complete turnover, perhaps even in 5
[48:24] years, let alone 10. A lot of people are
[48:28] going to understand the Mac 7 companies
[48:30] like Nvidia, companies that have maybe
[48:32] struggled a little bit like Meta and
[48:34] even Gemini in the current AI race. It's
[48:37] hard for them to imagine maybe like IBM,
[48:40] it was top of the hill in the 80s. It
[48:42] still is around today actually doing
[48:44] interesting things in quantum. When you
[48:46] say go away, do you mean completely
[48:49] become disappear or just become not as
[48:52] relevant in whatever five years may look
[48:55] like?
[48:56] Yeah, I think the best way to think
[48:58] irrelevant as investments, meaning if I
[49:00] asked everyone, how is Ford as an
[49:02] investment? Everyone would laugh, but
[49:04] it's still part of the S&P 500. So, I
[49:06] think what you're going to get to is two
[49:08] things. Um, and this is a little entree
[49:10] for people who who either don't believe
[49:13] in crypto or or just haven't thought
[49:15] about it. You're all thinking about
[49:16] crypto every single day now. And it
[49:18] becomes very important for what I'm
[49:20] about to say. If I said to you, how do
[49:22] you trade anthropic and open AI right
[49:25] now? Well, okay. If you understood that
[49:28] until recently, you go to Hyperlquid and
[49:30] you get a valuation on these things.
[49:32] Hyperlquid is a crypto site. If you want
[49:34] to do Couch or you want to do Poly
[49:36] Market, well, now you're getting into
[49:37] crypto again. The reason those are
[49:39] important is you've probably heard the
[49:40] word tokenization. Tokenization is the
[49:43] merging of the digital crypto world and
[49:45] the public world that you're used to. It
[49:47] means private companies become public
[49:48] companies immediately because everything
[49:50] is tokenized. So, you can trade
[49:52] anthropic as a private company. You can
[49:54] trade Apple as a public company and now
[49:56] they're all just tokenized stocks.
[49:59] They're all tokenized. That is how the
[50:01] capital structure is going to change.
[50:02] That goes beyond most piece people
[50:05] thinking. Tokenization is a real thing.
[50:07] I spoke about it on the New York Stock
[50:09] Exchange at a major event over the
[50:10] course of the last six weeks. They had
[50:12] in every every major brokerage from
[50:15] Korea in the New York Stock Exchange. I
[50:18] was there was there for the closing
[50:20] bell. I spoke on a bunch of uh uh
[50:22] interviews there. It was all about my
[50:25] vision of tokenization, but they
[50:28] envisioned this happening before the end
[50:30] of the year for the New York Stock
[50:31] Exchange. So tokenization is a real
[50:34] thing, the merging of the world. And
[50:35] that's why when I say the S&P 500, I
[50:37] actually don't know if the S&P 500
[50:39] exists in the way that we think it does
[50:42] in five years because tokenization is
[50:45] going to change the entire capital
[50:47] structure and the entire way that people
[50:49] transact. And remember, this is going to
[50:51] be a 24-hour a day trading thing just
[50:54] like Bitcoin. And it's coming very, very
[50:56] soon to everyone.
[50:58] Jordy, let's rock this. I'm really into
[51:00] it. I've spoken about this to my members
[51:02] and they basically think I'm crazy. You
[51:04] might actually agree with me. I believe
[51:07] everything on Earth, including private
[51:09] homes, the total assets are what about
[51:12] 1.5 quadrillion. In other words, take a
[51:16] trillion and it's 1,500 of that. It's a
[51:20] huge huge number. I believe 97% of that
[51:25] is effectively illquid. I mentioned the
[51:28] private homes, private businesses,
[51:31] equipment. There's a variety of
[51:32] different factors. Imagine the advent of
[51:36] tokenization.
[51:38] Uh we have stable coins. We have
[51:40] governments getting more behind quote
[51:41] unquote crypto. I agree with you. I
[51:44] think you may agree with the math that I
[51:46] just laid out. How as an allocator, an
[51:50] investor or a family office, could I
[51:53] understand that math and realize that I
[51:56] may need to be allocating to this and
[51:58] how?
[52:00] So f first of all I the number you gave
[52:02] that must include government ownership
[52:04] and other things too. H household net
[52:07] worth across the globe meaning the
[52:09] assets that fit into the house the the
[52:11] ownership of people not governments. UBS
[52:15] puts it at about 700 billion to 800
[52:18] billion. I've been using just for an
[52:21] example for people to kind of have have
[52:23] it easier is about 500 sorry trillion
[52:26] not billion. Um, and I've used this
[52:29] thing that twothirds of that are what I
[52:31] call dormant assets. So the same concept
[52:33] you're doing. So let's take it from 97.
[52:35] Let's just take it from 67. And things
[52:37] that um are important to people
[52:40] spending. They're important to way the
[52:41] economy is measured. The reason this is
[52:43] important,
[52:46] GDP, the way it's measured is going to
[52:48] explode because the money supply is
[52:50] going to immediately grow rapidly. If
[52:54] 2thirds of all of the assets on the
[52:57] planet owned by people are dormant,
[53:00] meaning they can't transact. You can't
[53:02] walk into a coffee house and buy it with
[53:05] your house, a piece of your house. So
[53:07] this all of those assets are going to
[53:09] become tokenized. All of them to your
[53:12] point. And this just means the money
[53:14] supply will grow overnight. The ability
[53:16] for money, the liquid side will just
[53:19] start transacting. And for an allocator,
[53:21] the reason they have to be aware of
[53:22] this, it's not going to happen in one
[53:24] year, it's not going to happen in two
[53:25] years. It will take some time. But this
[53:27] is why I said the velocity of money,
[53:29] which is a critical component of GDP.
[53:32] The higher the velocity, the higher GDP,
[53:35] you're going to have more chance to move
[53:37] your money from a house that maybe is
[53:40] getting you six, seven% and move it to
[53:42] something that can produce 20%. It has
[53:45] to be done across the financial
[53:47] guardrails which will now be crypto. So
[53:50] the reason crypto is important and again
[53:52] for I I think I spoke Angelo in 2024 at
[53:55] your event in March. Well that was a
[53:58] long time ago and I mean a long time ago
[54:00] in the fact that Donald Trump was not
[54:02] president. The crypto approach was not
[54:05] there. Scott Besson gave an a a speech
[54:09] in the last month where he laid out as a
[54:12] critical component of it tokenization
[54:16] crypto and how the US will be the leader
[54:18] of this. If you don't think the
[54:20] financial guard rails are an IP that the
[54:23] US wants to own, you guys are not paying
[54:26] attention. Swift, we use this all the
[54:30] time for sanctions. Crypto is critical
[54:33] to the United States of America and
[54:35] their plans aligned with AI agents. The
[54:38] same way humanoids are important for
[54:41] war. So all of this stuff lines up the
[54:44] same way. And that's why tokenization is
[54:46] directly connected to every allocator's
[54:48] decision going forward. And you can
[54:50] either think about it today and trust me
[54:52] in the same way that AI if you would
[54:54] have committed the time in 2022 when
[54:56] chatbt was launched to spend a lot of
[54:59] time on AI you'd be the one doing this
[55:01] interview with Angela. If you don't pay
[55:03] attention to tokenization and the crypto
[55:05] financial guard rails and you don't
[55:07] spend the time on it today you will be
[55:10] in that same position two years from now
[55:12] a lot less than chat GBPT. That is my
[55:14] belief and that is my story on the
[55:16] dormant asset side of thing which Angela
[55:18] said. So we're on the same page.
[55:20] We got about 35 more minutes left with
[55:22] Jordy. A lot of questions to ask. I do
[55:24] want to engage the audience. So feel
[55:26] free through the chat feature to jump on
[55:29] in. Maybe just in building upon that a
[55:31] little bit, Jordy, years ago, I got into
[55:33] Bitcoin. I was very active. It sounds
[55:36] embarrassing now in NFTTS mainly around
[55:39] COVID, but the promise of verification
[55:42] and what NFTTS could mean relating to
[55:44] web 3, relating to blockchain and what
[55:47] we just said and Larry Frink and others
[55:49] have spoken about and you mentioned
[55:51] Bessent the US government uh a lot of
[55:53] the acts and clarity and all that with
[55:56] the current government. This is
[55:58] obviously a trend. You and I tend to be
[56:01] future forward and at least in my
[56:04] industry and I've been in it for
[56:05] decades. I tend to be ostriized because
[56:09] like you know that guy started to talk
[56:11] about Bitcoin in 2013. I've been on AI
[56:14] heavily for two years. Sometimes being
[56:18] future forward and ahead of the curve,
[56:20] maybe too early, is not always to our
[56:22] benefit in industries, mine and yours,
[56:25] which intertwine but are also somewhat
[56:28] different that want the status quo where
[56:31] it appears that way and people that may
[56:33] be a little older that don't quite
[56:36] understand how things are changing
[56:38] rapidly. How do you put this all
[56:40] together for people in finance where the
[56:43] idea of AI and Bitcoin and tokenization?
[56:47] They're having a harder time allocating
[56:51] because they got to take money from
[56:53] somewhere to put it into that and they
[56:55] feel they have to justify it that may be
[56:58] volatile. How do you help them overcome
[57:00] that?
[57:02] Okay, f first of all just answer that
[57:05] last part first. Um, so if I said to
[57:09] everyone in in in Bitcoin,
[57:12] if I asked everyone, what's the
[57:14] volatility in it? So the volatility in
[57:16] Bitcoin is now down to about 30.
[57:20] The stock market this year is completely
[57:22] dominated by the AI trade. You have I
[57:26] have a thematic portfolio that I
[57:29] released to my subscribers that has a
[57:31] hundred names that are directly
[57:33] connected to it. It's my version of what
[57:35] the S&P 500 will look like in the future
[57:38] based on all of the progress happening
[57:40] everything related to data centers to
[57:42] agentic world everything. The issue with
[57:44] it is when I go through this and I talk
[57:46] to people I'm like are you invested did
[57:48] you invest in Micron? Yeah, I did. Okay.
[57:51] Micron has a 90 V. It's three times
[57:54] Bitcoin. This has never been about
[57:56] volatility. This has been about
[58:00] what uh the book Sapiens pointed out to
[58:04] all of us which is human beings need
[58:06] stories and they can attach themselves
[58:09] to people like Jeremy Grantham because
[58:11] he's very smart and he can talk about
[58:13] the numbers. He can talk about history
[58:14] and it sounds very compelling like you
[58:16] said you can go back over history and
[58:18] say well the last time we were at this
[58:19] level this happened. You can't do that
[58:22] with Bitcoin or with crypto because it
[58:24] has no narrative. the narrative is
[58:27] missed. So here's what I want to get
[58:29] away from the volatility and just give
[58:30] people a different way to think about
[58:32] this. The Bitcoin white paper came out
[58:36] and I think at that point people got
[58:38] embraced with this is a a a thing to get
[58:42] away from fiat currencies. This is
[58:44] something to break the system. You had
[58:46] Charlie Munger speak out against it.
[58:48] Warren Buffett, you had all of these
[58:50] people speak out against it. I view it
[58:53] now
[58:55] in going back and I'm gonna bring up why
[58:57] and connect it back to my Amazon story.
[59:00] Um, it came out to solve a problem which
[59:03] Mark Andre wrote about in 2012 and I'm
[59:06] sure everyone knows who Mark Andre is.
[59:07] They may have invested in his funds and
[59:09] they respect him. He's one of the
[59:11] smartest people on the planet as far as
[59:12] I'm concerned. I think Mark Andre is a
[59:14] visionary. I think he also studies
[59:16] history. He was a Democrat. He became a
[59:19] Republican. I go back to the Michael Bur
[59:21] and the Jeremy Granthm thing. They've
[59:22] never changed their polit their their
[59:24] their view. It's bu it's bearish. Mark
[59:27] Andre shifted. He talked about why he
[59:30] did it. I love listening to people who
[59:32] have flexible minds. But he said in 2012
[59:35] that Bitcoin is the most the third most
[59:37] important of a trend most important
[59:40] thing. Now this was four years after the
[59:42] white paper. And the reason he said that
[59:43] is it solved a problem once he read the
[59:46] white paper of digital money. So, forget
[59:49] replacing the dollar. Forget it's for
[59:52] terrorists. Forget it's to hide money
[59:54] away from fiats. It's digital money. It
[59:57] is the money of AI agents. AI agents
[01:00:01] cannot use something that takes five
[01:00:03] days to settle. They move faster than
[01:00:05] us. They actually need this. So, in 2021
[01:00:09] or 20, yeah, 2020 during COVID when we
[01:00:13] all sat at home, I spent a lot of time
[01:00:15] on anti-aging, longevity, and um and
[01:00:18] understanding the microbiome and HRV and
[01:00:21] all of these things I care about. But
[01:00:22] the other topic I spent a lot of time on
[01:00:24] was Bitcoin. And the reason was because
[01:00:25] my son had turned $700 into 80,000. He
[01:00:29] subsequently lost it all, which is part
[01:00:31] of growing up and parting going through
[01:00:33] this. But it wasn't the money being made
[01:00:35] and loss. It was his knowledge about the
[01:00:38] tokens and why they were important to
[01:00:40] him. It was when you ask why you're you
[01:00:43] see your kids playing video games. You
[01:00:44] see them really viewing entertainment
[01:00:48] different than we did. They don't like
[01:00:49] sports. It's too slow. They prefer video
[01:00:51] games. Bitcoin represented to me when I
[01:00:54] studied what he talked about. It was an
[01:00:56] understanding I had that as the future
[01:00:59] becomes more computerized, as
[01:01:01] demographics shift, this whole concept
[01:01:04] of a check settling in multiple days is
[01:01:06] stupid. It doesn't match the economy
[01:01:09] we're on. And the financial guardrails
[01:01:11] do not mix it. Tokens, stocks,
[01:01:13] settlement of stocks, all of that stuff
[01:01:14] takes too long. To pay an Uber driver
[01:01:17] money and all the hands that take money
[01:01:19] before the driver gets theirs multiple
[01:01:22] weeks later, it doesn't make any sense
[01:01:24] to me. Everything will be instantaneous
[01:01:26] just like information is and just like
[01:01:28] everything else on the internet. So I
[01:01:30] just want to make sure people realize if
[01:01:32] you want to feel comfortable at it read
[01:01:34] the people that I mentioned. That's the
[01:01:35] study I did. I went and listened to Mark
[01:01:38] Andre. I listened to Michael Sailor who
[01:01:41] went to MIT who roommed with Peter
[01:01:43] Demandis. I don't care about the
[01:01:45] opinions that people have. I think this
[01:01:47] is a very important point for people.
[01:01:48] Tokenization and crypto will be a part
[01:01:50] of your lives in a bigger way in the
[01:01:52] next five years. Do your homework now.
[01:01:55] related to that and I'll keep this
[01:01:57] question for a change relatively simple
[01:01:59] and straightforward.
[01:02:01] Do socal smart people
[01:02:04] rather be right or make money?
[01:02:08] It's 100% I've there's no question. Um,
[01:02:12] and by the way, I do I as you say that,
[01:02:15] so if people want since I've I've um
[01:02:18] I've said I can't listen to Jeremy
[01:02:19] Grantham and I can't listen to Michael
[01:02:21] Bur and I said I love Mark Andre and let
[01:02:23] me give you a market person who to me is
[01:02:25] brilliant because of their humbleness
[01:02:28] and their flexibility which is Stan Duck
[01:02:29] Miller and what you just said and what
[01:02:32] happens to me to get back to the AWS
[01:02:35] thing. I didn't invest in Bitcoin until
[01:02:38] my son made a lot of money and it fell
[01:02:41] down and I did my homework and I
[01:02:43] realized how this fit into my vision, my
[01:02:46] vision of the world related to machine
[01:02:48] learning, what would eventually happen.
[01:02:50] I didn't realize Chad GPT would come out
[01:02:52] the next, you know, two years later. But
[01:02:54] I did know that reinforcement learning
[01:02:56] and neural networks and all of these
[01:02:58] things, reading Ray Kerszswwell, knowing
[01:03:00] Singularity that this stuff was all
[01:03:01] coming and that it couldn't survive
[01:03:03] without digital money. So when you
[01:03:04] listen to someone like Stan Duck Miller
[01:03:06] who has spoken about Bitcoin, he might
[01:03:08] say he doesn't understand it, but he
[01:03:10] said the reason it will always be here
[01:03:11] is because it's a brand for younger
[01:03:13] people. It's a very simple, elegant way
[01:03:14] of saying something as opposed to going
[01:03:17] on TV and saying this is a joke. I
[01:03:19] should never pay attention to it. And so
[01:03:21] I do think to your, you know, your point
[01:03:23] in this, the people who don't embrace
[01:03:25] Bitcoin,
[01:03:28] they don't care. They don't need to
[01:03:30] embrace it. And so they don't need to
[01:03:32] embrace it. So they want to be right.
[01:03:34] And when something has already moved up
[01:03:35] this far and they didn't participate in
[01:03:37] it, there's a very big danger of buying
[01:03:39] something that's already gone from a
[01:03:42] dollar to 60,000
[01:03:44] and then watching it go to 30,000. That
[01:03:46] is the ultimate failure. Nobody wants to
[01:03:48] be wrong. That's what the school system
[01:03:50] teaches. And I think the failure of that
[01:03:52] is there. I got out of Micron after
[01:03:54] riding it publicly from 60 to 600. It
[01:03:58] proceeded to go to 1300. I didn't change
[01:04:01] a single view, but now that we've had
[01:04:04] two or six weeks of a correction, I
[01:04:07] might be buying in at 850. That's and I
[01:04:09] said to myself, you may have to buy this
[01:04:11] thing much higher than you got out. I
[01:04:13] need to do that regularly to just show
[01:04:15] my ego that it's not the decision maker.
[01:04:17] The decision maker is it's clean. I have
[01:04:19] no position. What's going to happen from
[01:04:21] here?
[01:04:22] Jordy, I'd love to get through at least
[01:04:24] 10 more questions. Let's get to it.
[01:04:26] You've been on it a little bit for 10
[01:04:28] minutes. So maybe a final question on
[01:04:30] Bitcoin. Uh we've all been disappointed
[01:04:34] really in the last year to year and a
[01:04:35] half. You admit that you've been wrong
[01:04:37] relative to its price action for much of
[01:04:40] the last at least 12 months.
[01:04:43] What makes you think it's still
[01:04:45] valuable? It's going to go up. And what
[01:04:47] might it look like by the end of this
[01:04:49] year?
[01:04:51] Um, yeah, I expected it to be far higher
[01:04:54] um than it was even at the peak last
[01:04:57] year. So, I've been wrong on that. And I
[01:04:58] just talked about how I was wrong on
[01:05:00] Micron getting out at 650. So, I'm I'm
[01:05:02] wrong uh
[01:05:04] almost every week in something. Uh the
[01:05:06] good thing is uh I've always been a
[01:05:08] believer and try to find things that are
[01:05:10] asymmetric. So, [clears throat] in the
[01:05:11] case of Bitcoin, um
[01:05:13] here here's the the the main thing.
[01:05:16] after Donald Trump became president,
[01:05:19] having traded markets for a long time,
[01:05:21] part of the reason that I thought it
[01:05:22] would go up much higher is because it
[01:05:24] defied something uh
[01:05:27] that I hadn't seen happen before.
[01:05:29] Meaning, people may forget this, but the
[01:05:32] year of 2024,
[01:05:35] effectively, you had the ETF and then
[01:05:38] you had the United States elect a
[01:05:41] president
[01:05:43] who embraced Bitcoin, who said crypto is
[01:05:46] going to be a part of this. Now, I
[01:05:48] always believe the biggest risk in
[01:05:49] crypto and Bitcoin was never quantum. I
[01:05:51] always believed the biggest risk was
[01:05:52] that governments would just continue to
[01:05:55] delay its inevitability for a long time.
[01:05:59] the fact that the leaders of the free
[01:06:01] world and the leaders of the financial
[01:06:02] system were the ones to embrace it and
[01:06:06] the voting in a lot of ways Donald Trump
[01:06:08] was elected because of his stance on
[01:06:10] crypto which was a a brilliant way to
[01:06:13] make sure that he got a very very fast
[01:06:15] growing you know followers. Uh I think
[01:06:18] where we are very simply on Bitcoin is
[01:06:20] this
[01:06:22] AI
[01:06:24] accelerated
[01:06:26] with opus 4.5 which occurred in
[01:06:28] November.
[01:06:30] The Fed as of for December of this year
[01:06:33] the Fed was expected to have 150 cuts as
[01:06:37] of October of last year. I have shown a
[01:06:41] chart in my subscriber videos that
[01:06:44] basically Bitcoin has followed the
[01:06:46] probability of rate cuts. We've gone
[01:06:49] from 150 as of September to now by the
[01:06:52] end of this year we have 40 basis points
[01:06:54] of hikes built in. So Bitcoin followed
[01:06:57] the path of future money supply being
[01:07:01] tighter. Um I believe the Fed is not
[01:07:04] going to raise rates. If they do, I
[01:07:06] think he would have to do it now,
[01:07:08] meaning July. There's your first little
[01:07:10] surprise side. And the reason I think
[01:07:11] that is if he was interested in
[01:07:13] credibility, why not just come out of
[01:07:15] the gates, do 25, if they're interested
[01:07:17] in the long end coming down, that would
[01:07:19] guarantee it immediately if he's going
[01:07:21] to say that he's going to raise it,
[01:07:22] especially when we're going to have a
[01:07:23] negative CPI print. Um, if they don't, I
[01:07:27] think this is the beginning. And I've
[01:07:28] publicly said that I have technical
[01:07:30] reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin right
[01:07:31] now as a bottoming sign. But I also have
[01:07:34] the other part that I mentioned which is
[01:07:35] when Opus 4.5 came out all of the
[01:07:37] dollars in the world went to the agentic
[01:07:39] world. And it made sense because crypto
[01:07:42] I mean Micron went from 60 to 1300. It
[01:07:47] was a 20bagger. Those are cryptotype
[01:07:49] moves. You're not going to get those
[01:07:50] anymore in any of the AI stocks. You're
[01:07:53] not going to get your boring 30 to 40% a
[01:07:55] year on the infrastructure names. And
[01:07:56] it's not going to happen with good
[01:07:58] volatility. It's going to happen with a
[01:07:59] higher volatility than Bitcoin. So I
[01:08:01] will say to everyone here by the end of
[01:08:02] this year, I believe fully that it will
[01:08:05] double. Um and the only way that's not
[01:08:08] going to happen is if the infrastructure
[01:08:11] trade continues at the same pace, which
[01:08:13] is literally impossible based on what
[01:08:15] we've seen. And at the same point, the
[01:08:17] Fed is going to be more hawkish. meaning
[01:08:19] Donald Trump put someone in the Fed seat
[01:08:22] who is gonna disrupt the midterms even
[01:08:24] more than what it just doesn't make any
[01:08:26] logical sense. So I think you're gonna
[01:08:27] see a big change and I think you're
[01:08:29] gonna see the dollar weaken and you're
[01:08:30] going to see Bitcoin go higher.
[01:08:32] I'm going to mention some public
[01:08:33] equities and again please everyone do
[01:08:37] your own diligence. Conditions change.
[01:08:40] Jord's opinion may change tomorrow
[01:08:42] because conditions change and there may
[01:08:44] be other opportunities that are simply
[01:08:46] better. But I know my audience is going
[01:08:49] to enjoy. And again, one more time,
[01:08:51] everyone, do your own diligence. Make
[01:08:53] your own decisions. When you invest, you
[01:08:55] could lose money. Theoretically, you
[01:08:57] could lose all your money. So, with that
[01:09:00] wonderful side note, uh I'm going to
[01:09:02] name a couple of equities and may ask
[01:09:05] you to name some. So, we have the
[01:09:07] so-called, we don't use the vernacular
[01:09:09] maybe quite as much anymore, the Mac 7.
[01:09:12] We have some like Nvidia that have done
[01:09:14] great and look good relative in the
[01:09:16] future. You may have a different
[01:09:18] perspective and we have others that have
[01:09:20] stagnated like Meta and others. If you
[01:09:23] had to choose from only the Mag 7 and
[01:09:26] looking relatively short intermediate
[01:09:28] one to three years out, which one do you
[01:09:31] think is an anchor in a portfolio?
[01:09:34] Uh well, I literally just posted an X
[01:09:36] yesterday about Nvidia um trading at
[01:09:40] decade low valuations.
[01:09:43] Uh basically being left out in the dark
[01:09:46] right now. Uh so Nvidia would be the
[01:09:48] one, but I'll be honest with you right
[01:09:50] now, all of the mag seven are
[01:09:52] interesting to me. And the one thing I
[01:09:53] left out with Bitcoin, which fits into
[01:09:55] the same the same um place, the Mag 7
[01:09:58] have acted horribly this year, too. And
[01:10:01] the reason they've acted horribly is
[01:10:03] because all of the money was going into
[01:10:05] this AI infrastructure trade. So if the
[01:10:08] AI infrastructure trade is is lower, one
[01:10:11] catalyst is coming. So I made the Apple
[01:10:13] conversation. If Siri by the end of this
[01:10:16] year, which I believe it will be by the
[01:10:17] end of this year, I believe you will be
[01:10:19] able to talk to Siri with your phone off
[01:10:22] and actually have an intelligent
[01:10:23] conversation. That would be the
[01:10:25] beginning of the consumer agents, which
[01:10:27] would also help Meta. Meta came out last
[01:10:29] week and basically said there was a
[01:10:31] leakage from a town hall meeting with
[01:10:33] Zuckerberg and he basically said all
[01:10:35] right so here's the problem agents are
[01:10:38] not moving ahead as fast as we had
[01:10:40] thought now that is not coding agents
[01:10:42] that is consumer agents if consumer
[01:10:44] agents accelerate the way Apple and Meta
[01:10:46] are talking it also is going to impact
[01:10:48] AWS meaning Amazon it's also going to
[01:10:51] impact Microsoft so I think all the mag
[01:10:54] seven are going to do well if I had to
[01:10:55] pick one for the next three years it
[01:10:57] would definitely be Tesla But from a
[01:10:59] stable basis for your audience, since
[01:11:01] I'm sure most of them wouldn't touch
[01:11:02] Tesla just based on the the crowd that I
[01:11:04] met uh at the side, I think I'm gonna
[01:11:06] take Nvidia, which is cheap. It's going
[01:11:08] to grow 30 to 40 40% a year. Uh because
[01:11:11] the buildout that's going to continue.
[01:11:13] Okay. You mentioned it. [snorts] Tesla,
[01:11:16] a lot of people think likely some merger
[01:11:19] upcoming with SpaceX. Assuming a meltup,
[01:11:23] would you be that shocked? And I think
[01:11:25] 10 years is a long time. Let me knock it
[01:11:27] down to seven. Do you think that could
[01:11:29] be, and I know Diamandis and others have
[01:11:31] mentioned this, in a fiveyear window,
[01:11:33] I'm extending it to seven years, and I
[01:11:35] admit it probably needs some market
[01:11:37] meltup.
[01:11:39] Could that collectively be the first
[01:11:41] hundred trillion dollar company?
[01:11:45] I'll I'll say no. But I appreciate the
[01:11:49] fact that people are looking for uh uh
[01:11:52] the TAM of space to be worth something.
[01:11:55] Um, I don't understand how that can be
[01:11:57] any different than Bitcoin being worth
[01:11:59] anything. So, I'm I'm gonna say no, it
[01:12:01] won't get to that. But at the same
[01:12:02] point, I will say
[01:12:05] if he hits on humanoids and he gets
[01:12:07] rockets to go into space and come back
[01:12:11] to Earth uh next year in some way that
[01:12:14] he can do it multiple times in a day. Uh
[01:12:18] then I think you're going to talk about
[01:12:20] something which will be the biggest
[01:12:21] stock in the world because he has
[01:12:23] organized and combined every single
[01:12:25] thing about the embodied AI future.
[01:12:29] You're
[01:12:31] big for those that subscribe and hear
[01:12:33] you on Pomp and your solos. And by the
[01:12:35] way, I am a subscriber. I think Jord's
[01:12:38] work is worth it to spend money on. And
[01:12:41] my titling is not me just blowing smoke.
[01:12:44] I believe it. And do I think Lyn Alden
[01:12:47] and others are incredible? Absolutely.
[01:12:49] But I think Jordy is really the only one
[01:12:52] as a hands-on AI practitioner. And we
[01:12:55] didn't really get to enough on that. I
[01:12:57] think we might in the final 10 minutes.
[01:12:59] Uh that's very special. You have been a
[01:13:02] big advocate of Marll. Let's try to keep
[01:13:05] it one minute because we have other
[01:13:07] companies to lead into. Why are you so
[01:13:10] positive on the company Marll?
[01:13:12] Yeah, Marll is the biggest position in
[01:13:14] my portfolio outside of Eli Lily, which
[01:13:17] has recently become the biggest. Um
[01:13:19] Marll is going to benefit significantly
[01:13:22] going forward from Vera Rubin. There's
[01:13:26] just no other way around it. Um, we
[01:13:27] cannot have the amount to make the token
[01:13:31] cost go down per electricity. It needs
[01:13:34] to be done not with copper. It needs to
[01:13:36] be done with optics. And that's where
[01:13:37] Marll has built their entire business.
[01:13:40] And Jensen Yuang said they would be a
[01:13:42] trillion dollar company in the next
[01:13:44] three years. I think he said very
[01:13:46] recently. Let's assume it's the next
[01:13:48] five years. If they get to a trillion
[01:13:50] dollars, they're about a $225 billion
[01:13:52] company. That's a 4xer. Um, Marll is my
[01:13:55] favorite uh semiconductor name right
[01:13:57] now.
[01:13:58] I heard you say, I believe it was on
[01:14:00] Pomp, that within a couple of years,
[01:14:02] that Eli Liy will be the largest company
[01:14:05] on Earth. Why?
[01:14:07] Uh, Eli Liy, uh, which I've been
[01:14:09] building every single week. Now
[01:14:13] this is going to be the most amazing
[01:14:14] story of a company that basically has
[01:14:16] made a mint creating something which is
[01:14:19] curing the most important disease in the
[01:14:22] country which is obesity. It has not yet
[01:14:25] been able to do this at a level uh where
[01:14:28] everyone can afford it. That is coming.
[01:14:31] They've made more progress with now
[01:14:32] going from GLP1s to GLP3s. But here's
[01:14:35] the mo most important thing. They have
[01:14:37] built their own data center using a
[01:14:39] thousand Blackwell chips that is being
[01:14:42] used to basically solve every disease.
[01:14:45] They're using all of the data they have
[01:14:47] with this. They have another thing set
[01:14:49] up called Toon Lab. Toune Lab is where
[01:14:51] they're taking other data from other
[01:14:54] biotech. So, think about IP going into
[01:14:57] their thing. They're sharing their
[01:14:59] information, an LLM that they built with
[01:15:02] these companies. And the only thing that
[01:15:04] Eli Liy gets is their IP. They get
[01:15:07] access to it, which enables them to have
[01:15:09] more brainstorming and better things.
[01:15:11] They have their own innovation lab now
[01:15:13] set up with Nvidia out in Silicon
[01:15:17] Valley. So all of that stuff aligned,
[01:15:19] they've basically become an AI company
[01:15:21] with an infinite balance sheet. They've
[01:15:23] done more M&A this year than the prior
[01:15:26] five years combined, buying up all of
[01:15:28] this IP and the biotech. And so I
[01:15:31] believe the healthcare application side
[01:15:33] is going to be led by Eli Liy because of
[01:15:35] the amount of cash they have. And I will
[01:15:36] leave it this since we brought up
[01:15:37] socialism.
[01:15:39] Nova Nordisk competes with Eli Liy. The
[01:15:42] difference between what Eli Liy did, Eli
[01:15:44] Liy is keeping all of their cash and
[01:15:46] spending it on other companies. Nova
[01:15:48] Nordisk gave money back to the public in
[01:15:52] dividends. So that is the difference
[01:15:55] between Europe and the US. And it gets
[01:15:57] back to that debt situation. continuing
[01:15:59] to invest your money back in to solve
[01:16:01] diseases and go through it. Eli Liy and
[01:16:03] his partnership with Nvidia is the
[01:16:05] number one theme for me.
[01:16:06] I'm going to tease a little bit. We'll
[01:16:08] get to more of this in five or six
[01:16:10] minutes. And being a little tongue and
[01:16:11] cheek, but only a little. I guess Eli
[01:16:13] Liy and other companies and maybe family
[01:16:16] offices. You better be a little careful
[01:16:19] with these frontier models. We don't
[01:16:21] want Anthropic to be quote unquote
[01:16:25] borrowing, leveraging. Sounds like China
[01:16:29] their ideas and that's the value of
[01:16:31] sovereign. Let's push that off about
[01:16:33] five more minutes. Uh people are going
[01:16:36] to want we gave a couple of some ideas
[01:16:39] stockwise. You mentioned what's going
[01:16:41] into the AI buildout in data centers. Uh
[01:16:44] I believe pronounced photonics relative
[01:16:47] to light and lasers. If you don't mind,
[01:16:49] maybe share another investment idea of a
[01:16:52] public company that someone may want to
[01:16:54] do diligence on.
[01:16:56] I'm going to make this very easy for
[01:16:58] people to to look at companies that are
[01:17:02] relatively big in different areas. First
[01:17:04] one everyone should own is Caterpillar.
[01:17:06] You cannot build out the amount of data
[01:17:07] centers. You cannot go through this
[01:17:09] without Caterpillar. It is a very very
[01:17:11] simple AI trade. It is expensive if you
[01:17:13] go back over history. But it deserves
[01:17:15] the multiple because there is no
[01:17:17] cyclicality with data centers. Modin
[01:17:19] manufacturing incredibly important is it
[01:17:22] is the best stock for the cooling side
[01:17:25] for this heat that is going to be
[01:17:27] produced. So on the optic side the
[01:17:28] reason we can't use copper it's
[01:17:30] tremendous heat you need tremendous
[01:17:32] cooling modin manufacturing and the the
[01:17:34] beauty for all of you I've been writing
[01:17:36] about an AI midcycle slowdown. I started
[01:17:39] writing about this at the end of May.
[01:17:41] I'm now saying it's over. We did it.
[01:17:43] It's all done. Like now it's it's we
[01:17:46] we've gone through it. I don't think
[01:17:48] we're racing to new all-time highs, but
[01:17:49] that just means you get a better entry
[01:17:51] point on everything that I'm mentioning.
[01:17:53] Uh, a chemical chemicals company,
[01:17:55] Entrogress En uh, ENTG.
[01:17:58] Yep.
[01:17:59] Phenomenal business growing. That's
[01:18:01] another one. They fit in with it as the
[01:18:03] buildout happens. And as we move into
[01:18:05] Vera Rubin, all of these companies are
[01:18:07] going to continue to do well. one other
[01:18:09] chemical company, Chamores, which just
[01:18:12] settled something and is going to just
[01:18:15] continue to chemical companies or the
[01:18:17] hidden gems with inside the AI buildup.
[01:18:20] Uh, I know it's popular with those in
[01:18:23] the know and maybe you, but you may like
[01:18:25] others better, including with Leopold,
[01:18:28] Ashenburgger. What do you think of Bloom
[01:18:30] Energy?
[01:18:32] Bloom Energy will continue to be a um a
[01:18:36] company that is necessary because we
[01:18:38] just can't get around the issues that
[01:18:40] happen with natural gas and turbines. Uh
[01:18:42] it makes it very challenging. Bloom
[01:18:44] Energy is able to do these smaller data
[01:18:47] centers. They're not a big player in the
[01:18:49] mega data centers where you're gonna
[01:18:51] have to have gas turbines and go through
[01:18:53] this. Um so Bloom Energy is going to
[01:18:55] continue to do well. I I always have a
[01:18:58] hard time when a business grows that
[01:19:00] quickly and it's in the physical side
[01:19:03] because it's open for disappointments in
[01:19:05] terms of them able to meet the supply.
[01:19:07] But they seem to be able to control it.
[01:19:09] He made a lot of money on it from the
[01:19:11] past. The question is now that they've
[01:19:13] grown into this level, it's it's
[01:19:15] different. I will say that Fluence is a
[01:19:17] company that is a battery company which
[01:19:20] has also corrected significantly who
[01:19:22] just announced a partnership with
[01:19:24] Seammens and Nvidia. You get the trend
[01:19:26] here. Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, they are
[01:19:29] they are a major spender and they are
[01:19:31] the Vera Rubin side of what is going to
[01:19:33] matter a lot in the next two years.
[01:19:35] Fluence is a name which is absolutely
[01:19:38] probably where Bloom Energy was before.
[01:19:40] Not with the same amount of upside, but
[01:19:42] batteries are a massive necessity for
[01:19:45] where we're getting to, particularly
[01:19:46] with the data center push back.
[01:19:48] Jordy, in our final 10, perhaps 15
[01:19:51] minutes, [clears throat] let's go really
[01:19:54] quick. roundroin. There's just not
[01:19:56] enough compute, or so we're told, in the
[01:19:59] world to satisfy all demand. One, do you
[01:20:02] agree with that, although it may be
[01:20:03] pretty obvious? And how do you address
[01:20:05] that in your investing?
[01:20:07] Uh, it's absolutely true, and I'm going
[01:20:09] to just make this very simple. Number
[01:20:11] one, coding agents came in October, Opus
[01:20:14] 4.5. You said it, Angelo. The mistake
[01:20:16] that people make, we are still in the
[01:20:18] early innings of enterprises adopting
[01:20:20] that. One of the biggest mistakes is
[01:20:22] people following this ridiculous token
[01:20:24] index and hearing things. The reality is
[01:20:28] we have insane demand and we do not have
[01:20:31] enough supply. If you watch my video
[01:20:33] this weekend, you will see on my YouTube
[01:20:36] channel as I go through this, I
[01:20:37] literally am putting together the video
[01:20:38] for this week that you just take the
[01:20:41] earnings releases from the hyperscalers
[01:20:43] and you literally look at what was their
[01:20:47] capacity. None of them had capacity.
[01:20:50] When you go over to the RPOS, which are
[01:20:52] the orders that they have contracted but
[01:20:54] haven't yet received the cash for
[01:20:56] because they don't have the capacity,
[01:20:57] when you add in Oracle to the big three,
[01:21:00] the big three being Google, Microsoft,
[01:21:02] and Amazon, you have two trillion
[01:21:03] dollars of revenue sitting there to come
[01:21:05] through. So, we don't have enough supply
[01:21:08] for the compute demand. And the second
[01:21:10] thing, all we're on is the coding
[01:21:12] agents. People, consumer agents will use
[01:21:14] 20 to 30 times more than coding agents.
[01:21:17] That is when you start using it verbally
[01:21:19] after we get the consumer agents which
[01:21:21] will happen later this year. Full
[01:21:22] self-driving will go on the explosion
[01:21:24] over the next two years. That takes
[01:21:26] more. Then you'll have humanoids coming
[01:21:28] up in four or five years. That will take
[01:21:30] more. That is why this will never end
[01:21:32] because it is an endless amount of
[01:21:34] demand that's coming.
[01:21:36] And Jordy, let's maybe a little
[01:21:38] sensitive and relates to sovereigns. So
[01:21:40] you mentioned the big companies, the
[01:21:42] Fortune 500s in my world, the gigantic
[01:21:45] family offices. They're just earlier
[01:21:48] stage using AI. One, they don't know
[01:21:50] what they don't know. There's layers of
[01:21:52] bureaucracy. They're using frontier
[01:21:54] models that may be taking from them. I
[01:21:57] just don't know if we're going to have
[01:21:58] enough time to get super deep into that.
[01:22:01] David Saxs has spoken about this.
[01:22:03] They're starting to wake up to owning
[01:22:06] the hardware and open weight models that
[01:22:08] may be impactful to anthropic and open
[01:22:10] AI. We probably just don't quite have
[01:22:13] enough time. But I'm going to state it
[01:22:16] and again I guess I'm used to being the
[01:22:18] the bad guy. There is internal friction
[01:22:22] from not understanding frontier versus
[01:22:25] sovereign, not understanding how to
[01:22:27] maximize your value and use the
[01:22:28] products. And I I'm sorry there is even
[01:22:31] if it's subtle there is internal
[01:22:34] sabotage and Diamandis and Salem spoke
[01:22:38] about this in creating a digital twin
[01:22:40] company that a lot of people don't want
[01:22:43] this to succeed because they don't want
[01:22:46] the system that has paid them a pretty
[01:22:49] good salary to potentially
[01:22:52] uh throw them out and it's a terrible
[01:22:54] word and I understand their concern but
[01:22:57] how do you address the issue when You're
[01:22:58] working with large RAAS. I'm working
[01:23:01] with SFOS and I don't think a lot of
[01:23:04] them really want this to succeed
[01:23:06] internally yet. I I think the employees
[01:23:10] are against it for the most part. Um
[01:23:14] getting there, but I think that's what's
[01:23:15] happening to the country. When you had a
[01:23:16] partnership structure, which is what
[01:23:18] dominated the country, particularly when
[01:23:19] I got to Morgan Stanley, it was a public
[01:23:21] company. You're an employee. You don't
[01:23:23] care as much as you did if you're a
[01:23:25] partner. A partner cares about the
[01:23:26] business. you're all lined up the same
[01:23:28] way. You're getting the a percentage
[01:23:30] profits of what you're going. It's a
[01:23:31] much more known distributed way as
[01:23:34] opposed to getting a bonus at the end of
[01:23:36] the year that is completely arbitrary to
[01:23:38] some degree um and doesn't go. So I I do
[01:23:40] think people are against it on the open
[01:23:43] on the on the sovereign side. I I do
[01:23:45] want to give people a way to just
[01:23:47] understand this. If your business has if
[01:23:50] if your data is the IP of the firm, so
[01:23:53] let's go back to the China situation.
[01:23:55] it. If your data is, let's assume you're
[01:23:58] a legal firm and you're using Anthropic,
[01:24:01] they basically have access to your data.
[01:24:03] So, you either trust that they're not
[01:24:04] going to compete with you and they may
[01:24:06] not use your specific data, but if they
[01:24:08] take every law firm, hundred law firms,
[01:24:11] a thousand law firms, and figure out the
[01:24:12] way that they solve things and they're
[01:24:14] doing things, they're learning how to
[01:24:15] replicate the business and it doesn't
[01:24:17] have to be yours. So, again, I think
[01:24:19] there is an element of this that is at
[01:24:21] risk. If your data is is very important
[01:24:23] IP, I I would be very wary about use
[01:24:26] letting it be involved in in major
[01:24:28] decisions.
[01:24:30] I mean, my audience knows this well.
[01:24:33] I love the Frontier models. I use them.
[01:24:36] Fable 5, the new 5.6. I'm careful. I
[01:24:40] sanitize it where I could, but I execute
[01:24:44] often using my own hardware open models
[01:24:48] that I control that don't touch the
[01:24:50] cloud that don't bleed my IP and I also
[01:24:54] build on Hermes and Open Claw and I use
[01:24:57] the great sweet at anthropic too. I'm
[01:25:00] just careful. And if you're in the
[01:25:02] enterprise business, finance or family
[01:25:05] offices and you don't know this, by the
[01:25:07] way, if I could learn it, if I could
[01:25:09] build apps and I'm 60, you could. But
[01:25:12] you got to put in the work. And whether
[01:25:14] me or Jordy or others, there may not be
[01:25:16] a lot of us in the world of finance that
[01:25:18] are actively teaching this somewhat
[01:25:20] one-on-one. Uh Jordi Washington is
[01:25:25] obviously considering taking stakes in
[01:25:28] select AI companies. Is this good or is
[01:25:31] this bad?
[01:25:34] It's inevitable. So I'm
[01:25:38] you you can argue whether it's good or
[01:25:39] bad. That's that's not for me to uh
[01:25:42] spend time on it. It's inevitable. Do I
[01:25:44] think it creates conflicts? I think AI
[01:25:47] is already creating conflicts. We've
[01:25:49] already seen this with with um Anthropic
[01:25:52] and Palanteer in terms of uh the
[01:25:54] beginning of of the Iran war. We've seen
[01:25:57] it recently with Fable 5 being shut
[01:25:59] down. We've seen it again with 5.6 going
[01:26:02] to the government beforehand, it being
[01:26:04] released, but Sam Alman coming out and
[01:26:06] saying, "Hey, you haven't been inviting
[01:26:07] me to the White House that much." Uh and
[01:26:09] all these other guys have gone. I'd love
[01:26:11] it if uh you take a 5% stake, which
[01:26:13] means I mean Donald Trump will negotiate
[01:26:16] a 10% stake. that's that's worth hundred
[01:26:19] billion dollars and he just set up these
[01:26:21] kid accounts and the sovereign wealth
[01:26:22] fund. So this would immediately be some
[01:26:24] kind of dividend for people. So I think
[01:26:27] it's inevitable. I don't think there's
[01:26:28] any way around it. I always thought that
[01:26:30] and you brought up Leopold Ashorn. All
[01:26:32] you have to do is go read his
[01:26:34] situational awareness.
[01:26:36] I don't think if a lot of people want
[01:26:37] the truth of what that may look like.
[01:26:40] It's going to happen. It's going to
[01:26:41] happen. Uh now Jordy a little I wouldn't
[01:26:45] say push back question. Okay, they take
[01:26:47] an interest. I mean, god forbid it's
[01:26:49] Bernie Sanders, he'll just take half the
[01:26:51] company. But even Trump's idea, which
[01:26:53] I'm not an advocate for, uh then then
[01:26:56] open AI and Anthropic are going to be
[01:26:59] not only too big to fail, but how are
[01:27:01] competitors going to come along? I guess
[01:27:04] through regulatory capture. Lord knows
[01:27:06] anthropic doesn't want that. This is
[01:27:08] going to basically lock out competitors
[01:27:10] in the future. This concerns me and the
[01:27:13] government having a stake like that.
[01:27:16] Honestly, I think we're past that point
[01:27:18] at this point. Um, you said something
[01:27:20] that I I I disagree with. Um,
[01:27:25] I I um I've already kind of ended up now
[01:27:28] where as someone who used five models
[01:27:31] and the top two models were somewhere
[01:27:33] between 50 and 60% of my time for about
[01:27:36] a year and say a half until we got to
[01:27:41] March of this year. And then in March of
[01:27:43] this year, it is exclusively now Claude
[01:27:47] and Chacht at about 90%. Gemini has been
[01:27:52] garbage relative to the two. And I mean
[01:27:56] Grock I use for Twitter almost every
[01:27:59] day.
[01:27:59] What's your favorite open weight at the
[01:28:01] moment?
[01:28:02] When you say open weight, what do you
[01:28:03] mean in terms of model that I'm using?
[01:28:06] Model that you're using that is not
[01:28:07] touching the cloud.
[01:28:09] Oh, so I use chem Kimmy K 2.6 six from
[01:28:11] China as as my open-source model. And
[01:28:15] then
[01:28:15] that's a pretty big program, so you must
[01:28:17] have some pretty serious hardware.
[01:28:19] Well, that was when I bought the Mac
[01:28:20] minis and I used both of them for that.
[01:28:22] But this is 2.5, not 2.6. So 2.5 is you
[01:28:25] can run it on on two without a problem.
[01:28:27] Um my I I really do split my time. I
[01:28:32] probably use codeex more than claude at
[01:28:33] this point, but that has to do with the
[01:28:35] usage um problems, meaning it gets shut
[01:28:37] down too much on claude on some of the
[01:28:39] bigger things. and Codeex never closes
[01:28:41] me down at this point. So that's where I
[01:28:44] am with this.
[01:28:45] And maybe heading down to the last three
[01:28:47] questions, I kind of hinted at this
[01:28:49] before. Alex Karp, a poller, was on an
[01:28:52] interview, kind of made the rounds about
[01:28:54] a week ago, basically stating what I
[01:28:56] said that be concerned about your IP.
[01:28:58] You want to have more opportunity to own
[01:29:01] kind of the means of production, the
[01:29:03] hardware, more openweight models. Now,
[01:29:05] the best models like GLM1 5.2, to
[01:29:08] Nvidia's Neotron. 99.9% of people don't
[01:29:11] have a horsepower in six figures of
[01:29:13] hardware at the moment. Things are
[01:29:15] changing to justify that. Uh you don't
[01:29:18] appear to be quite as concerned for the
[01:29:21] average investor or even family office
[01:29:24] about that issue. Maybe give me one
[01:29:27] minute as to why or maybe I'm misreading
[01:29:29] you. Um, no. I So, here here's the thing
[01:29:32] and what Alex Carp kind of forced people
[01:29:35] to think about and Palanteer is the only
[01:29:39] software company that's part of my 100
[01:29:41] names. Um, so I'm long it. Uh, I believe
[01:29:45] what he said is good for his book. Um,
[01:29:48] there's no doubt about it. He is not a
[01:29:50] fan of OpenAI or Chat GPT and I think
[01:29:53] everything that he said is completely
[01:29:55] right. But what the future will be, and
[01:29:58] this goes for every company. When you
[01:30:00] interview people,
[01:30:03] not everyone in your company can
[01:30:04] possibly have 140 IQ. And there's a
[01:30:06] reason. The it's a bell curve. 100 is
[01:30:09] the average IQ. There's 50% below it.
[01:30:12] There's 50% above it. And when you get
[01:30:14] out to 140, there's not a lot of people.
[01:30:16] So when you hire people, if you had to
[01:30:18] hire only 140 IQ people, you're paying a
[01:30:20] lot of money for them. So businesses are
[01:30:23] all about a variety of IQs and a variety
[01:30:26] of different things. And that fits in
[01:30:27] with what Alex Karp said. There will be
[01:30:29] open-source models because in the same
[01:30:32] way that a 100 IQ person on average is
[01:30:35] going to be cheaper than a 140 IQ person
[01:30:37] that came out of an Ivy League school,
[01:30:39] you end up with this scenario of how do
[01:30:41] we get our cost down. These are all
[01:30:44] digital employees and some of them will
[01:30:46] be free or cheap and there'll be
[01:30:50] sovereign side of protecting the data
[01:30:52] that matters and then there'll be some
[01:30:54] things where you don't care about your
[01:30:55] data. So I do believe that that's the
[01:30:57] way it is. I think you have to think
[01:30:59] about the decision makingaking the
[01:31:01] orchestrator which is basically what
[01:31:03] Palanteer does. It's the orchestrator
[01:31:06] going through and then having all of
[01:31:08] these different models where you're
[01:31:10] allocating a certain percent that no one
[01:31:11] actually knows everything about your
[01:31:13] business, but they know something.
[01:31:14] They're helping you with certain
[01:31:16] channels of it and it just gets more
[01:31:18] complex. But we're in the early adoption
[01:31:19] phase, so this is normal.
[01:31:21] Jordy, we didn't have enough time to get
[01:31:22] into Jensen Wong's five layer cake of
[01:31:25] the AI investment structure, but
[01:31:27] applications appear to be the hottest.
[01:31:29] Technically, Palunteer, you kind of
[01:31:31] mentioned one. uh maybe give my audience
[01:31:34] another idea of one that maybe is a
[01:31:36] little more below the radar that may be
[01:31:38] good on the application layer.
[01:31:40] Well, again, I I I I mentioned I'm going
[01:31:42] to just give two sectors, the financial
[01:31:44] sector and specifically regional banks.
[01:31:47] Um and this may sound uh like something
[01:31:50] that doesn't make sense. Well, how can a
[01:31:51] small regional bank actually adopt AI?
[01:31:54] Well, that's actually the point. um
[01:31:56] midsize ones like PNC Bank which are now
[01:31:59] large but you go through kind of the
[01:32:00] middle part of the country you're going
[01:32:02] to see a tremendous amount of
[01:32:04] consolidation in the banking side
[01:32:05] because if you embrace AI then all you
[01:32:08] got to do is buy a company and now take
[01:32:11] that plan and move it to other
[01:32:12] companies. So that's going to be a major
[01:32:14] major part of this. The private equity
[01:32:16] groups did this back in out taking
[01:32:19] businesses private and then doing their
[01:32:21] distribution supply chains in China. So
[01:32:24] regional banks are going to be a big
[01:32:26] beneficiary. They've broken out. They're
[01:32:28] performing very well. The other side is
[01:32:30] going to be insurance companies because
[01:32:31] of how paperladen they are. So when you
[01:32:34] think about applications, the
[01:32:35] productivity leverage that's going to
[01:32:37] come is the ability of using all this.
[01:32:39] So you've seen travelers, a company that
[01:32:42] you wouldn't think about as being
[01:32:43] innovative. They've been spending a lot
[01:32:45] of time on AI over the last decade,
[01:32:47] investing a lot of money, and now
[01:32:48] they're starting to talk about it in
[01:32:50] their earnings. One other area again I
[01:32:52] mentioned Eli Liy which is an
[01:32:54] application side but the healthc care
[01:32:56] side biotech all of that stuff the same
[01:32:58] theme IP and biotech was worth something
[01:33:02] to go public it raised a lot of money it
[01:33:04] just couldn't get over the finish line
[01:33:07] Eli Liy is buying up this IP because
[01:33:09] they believe that they can take AI
[01:33:11] connect it to the IP and turn it into
[01:33:13] something. So biotech as a whole is
[01:33:15] having a rebirth. It's also doing well
[01:33:17] in a year that is maybe not as good for
[01:33:19] the Mag 7. So those three areas,
[01:33:21] two final questions, Jordy, I'll bring
[01:33:23] up an other name that's more, I think,
[01:33:25] in RH bracket than Grantham andor
[01:33:28] Dallio, and that would be Jeffrey
[01:33:29] Gunlac. He told everyone his exact
[01:33:33] allocation in his portfolio. 40% non- US
[01:33:37] stocks, and by the way, Grantham was
[01:33:39] very big on non US stocks as well. 25%
[01:33:44] fixed income. Well, what a surprise. 15%
[01:33:46] commodities and the resting cash. Okay,
[01:33:50] give it to Mr. Gunlac. Where is he
[01:33:51] wrong?
[01:33:53] I I So, it's more the nothing in US
[01:33:57] stocks. I I I actually believe
[01:33:59] international stocks are going to
[01:34:01] outperform, but there's a very important
[01:34:02] reason for it. I do believe in a
[01:34:04] commodity bull market. So, I do believe
[01:34:06] that right now people should be
[01:34:08] aggressively looking at gold and silver,
[01:34:09] which have been in a correction for a
[01:34:11] while. It fits in with my rate cut
[01:34:13] theme, meaning we've gone from rate cuts
[01:34:15] to rate hikes. And I believe they're
[01:34:18] they're not paying enough attention to
[01:34:20] the AI side continuing to keep wages
[01:34:22] down and the fact that inflation is
[01:34:25] insanely lower than we all would have
[01:34:27] expected given what happened uh with
[01:34:29] Iran. So, I actually agree with the fact
[01:34:32] that international stocks are going to
[01:34:33] do well, but that's because you've seen
[01:34:35] what's happened in Korea. I mean, for
[01:34:37] everyone right there, the first half of
[01:34:38] the year, the S&P 500 was up 10%.
[01:34:41] Denikai was up
[01:34:43] I think 50. The Cosby was up 100. Uh the
[01:34:46] Straight Times in Singapore, I'm doing
[01:34:48] something on them today. They're raging.
[01:34:50] There's a reason because they are
[01:34:53] manufacturing heavy. They are not
[01:34:55] software heavy. They are commodityheavy,
[01:34:57] not software heavy. They are
[01:34:59] semiconductor heavy, not software heavy.
[01:35:02] All of the MAG7s still have high
[01:35:04] multiples. So even though I think
[01:35:05] they're all probably going to go higher
[01:35:07] from these levels, I don't think they're
[01:35:09] going to be better than S&P performers
[01:35:11] and I think the international stocks
[01:35:12] will continue to outperform as they
[01:35:14] have. So I'm not completely against what
[01:35:16] he said. I just think zero US stocks is
[01:35:18] ridiculous.
[01:35:19] Jordy, final question. We almost went
[01:35:21] down the road, might have skirted around
[01:35:23] it. You and I are both people that
[01:35:25] actually build agents. There will be
[01:35:28] billions billions of AI agents. There
[01:35:32] will eventually in relatively a few
[01:35:34] short years be more AI agents than
[01:35:36] people. They are going to work 168 hours
[01:35:39] a week. They don't take time off. They
[01:35:41] don't get tired. They sometimes do break
[01:35:43] down and they get either fixed or
[01:35:45] replaced very quickly. This is going to
[01:35:47] be a dynamic in many different ways,
[01:35:50] including the utilization of stable
[01:35:53] coins and other crypto or forms of
[01:35:56] agency and monetary value that they may
[01:35:59] even create. What impact is this going
[01:36:02] to have on really everyone investors and
[01:36:06] maybe an allocation to stable coins or
[01:36:08] other type investments?
[01:36:10] Well, again, I I so as part of my
[01:36:13] expansion of my business, I will start
[01:36:16] in September or October a uh the same
[01:36:20] YouTube type approach that I do, but
[01:36:22] this one will be exclusively starting
[01:36:23] from crypto and working a little bit
[01:36:25] backwards, meaning showing people the
[01:36:27] stuff that's happening in crypto and
[01:36:28] connecting it back to AI in this. And so
[01:36:30] to your point again, we've talked about
[01:36:32] some of it. Tokenization is part of
[01:36:34] crypto. As more tokenization happens,
[01:36:37] you're going to have dormant assets
[01:36:39] become
[01:36:41] alive as cash and that just means higher
[01:36:44] velocity of money, which means higher
[01:36:45] GDP. At the same point, as stable coins
[01:36:48] are going, you're getting more crossber
[01:36:50] volume. You're getting more cash
[01:36:52] transactions. I have shown that Bitcoin
[01:36:55] is the S&P 500 of digital assets. So for
[01:36:58] people to understand this, I have
[01:37:00] created a 40name
[01:37:02] crypto index which has 34 tokens and six
[01:37:08] public companies that are in eight
[01:37:09] different verticals. Think of them as
[01:37:11] sectors. When you equal weight all of
[01:37:14] them, the chart is exactly the same as
[01:37:16] Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the S&P 500 of the
[01:37:19] future for the digital asset world. So
[01:37:21] when I want to invest, I could either
[01:37:22] invest in 40 names, but the performance
[01:37:25] is incredibly correlated to Bitcoin. I
[01:37:28] only choose Bitcoin because those are
[01:37:30] innovations. And the only way that'll
[01:37:31] work out is like I said before, there is
[01:37:34] no S&P index. These are going to change
[01:37:36] so rapidly. Ethereum works today. Salana
[01:37:38] works tomorrow. Suie works the day
[01:37:40] after. You don't know who the winner is,
[01:37:42] but you have to keep rotating the
[01:37:44] portfolio. So that is my angle on this
[01:37:46] is I think the agents are going to drive
[01:37:48] volumes. They're going to drive velocity
[01:37:49] of money and you want to be invested in
[01:37:52] it. And right now, you have to have
[01:37:53] three to 5% of your money in it. In my
[01:37:55] opinion, I would be leaning on the
[01:37:57] higher side if I was, you know, younger,
[01:38:00] uh, up to 20% if I was much younger. And
[01:38:03] then if you're sitting there and you
[01:38:04] view it somewhere beta wise, it should
[01:38:06] be around 10.
[01:38:07] And Jordy, in about one more minute, I'm
[01:38:09] going to give you to Florida close and
[01:38:11] people could learn more. Uh, and given
[01:38:14] your prominence, I also get a bit of a
[01:38:15] new audience, I guess you could say,
[01:38:17] from my perspective. Hello everyone. I'm
[01:38:19] Angelo Robles, the original founder,
[01:38:22] longtime CEO of Family Office
[01:38:24] Association, a consortium of single
[01:38:26] family offices. Sold, retired, kept
[01:38:29] active in social media and created a new
[01:38:32] private intelligence and strategy
[01:38:34] community. You could go to
[01:38:35] angelroiss.com, my name, and learn more.
[01:38:38] I am extremely active in the family
[01:38:41] office world by far more than anyone
[01:38:43] else globally in AI, not just investing
[01:38:46] but in integration. And by the way, one
[01:38:49] of the resources that I use is the man
[01:38:51] who's a guest today. I spend money and
[01:38:55] gladly so on someone like Jordy and his
[01:38:58] services that are incredibly valuable to
[01:39:01] me. Not just from an investing
[01:39:03] perspective, but a real user like I am
[01:39:06] who's teaching me things on second brain
[01:39:10] skills and markdown files, advanced
[01:39:12] things that I'm relatively fluid on, but
[01:39:15] I learn things from Jordy that are
[01:39:16] incredibly valuable. If you're a family
[01:39:19] office and would like to learn more
[01:39:21] relative to my services and become a
[01:39:24] member and become a part of my three
[01:39:26] times a year immersive in-person master
[01:39:29] classes dedicated to AI, simply go to
[01:39:32] angelroiss.com,
[01:39:34] become a member and learn more. Jordy,
[01:39:37] I'm a huge fan of you and what you're
[01:39:38] doing. We're so happy that you're
[01:39:40] speaking at our September 15th and 16th
[01:39:43] in New York and likely the four days
[01:39:44] that I host come March 8th up on my
[01:39:47] website in Palm Beach. That's our core
[01:39:50] program. We have a lot to discover, to
[01:39:52] discuss because so much changes,
[01:39:55] especially in AI. Forget every three or
[01:39:57] four months. Literally, we're living
[01:39:59] through it right now this week. every
[01:40:01] week. I'll give you a chance to share
[01:40:04] for those including family offices that
[01:40:06] would like to learn more about your
[01:40:08] services. And while you're doing that,
[01:40:09] I'm going to pull up on screen so people
[01:40:12] that are watching, it may be a little
[01:40:14] easier visually for them. I will give
[01:40:17] you the floor right now. It's all yours.
[01:40:21] Well, first thing, Angela, thank you.
[01:40:22] and we have known each other a long
[01:40:24] time. But I do want to say this um to to
[01:40:27] everyone who hasn't
[01:40:29] used you as much as they should and for
[01:40:31] the people who are new um part part of
[01:40:34] being successful in this I use the term
[01:40:36] waste of time. Time has never been more
[01:40:39] precious. Um you can learn more things
[01:40:41] and do things in a short amount of time.
[01:40:44] What you're seeing on the screen I I put
[01:40:46] together in I think 30 seconds about two
[01:40:49] weeks ago and I just told it what I
[01:40:52] wanted. I pasted a picture and I just
[01:40:54] said, "Do it." I can create a
[01:40:56] presentation in seconds. By speaking to
[01:40:59] people like Angela and myself, you're
[01:41:02] developing a community that doesn't
[01:41:03] waste your time because they actually
[01:41:05] embrace AI. But more importantly, uh
[01:41:08] Angela and I are both around 60. So I'm
[01:41:11] 59, he's 60. You don't find a lot of
[01:41:14] people who can talk about AI. I didn't
[01:41:16] know any of the questions Angela was
[01:41:17] going to ask me. I didn't prepare
[01:41:19] anything. uh the ability for us to
[01:41:22] converse on topics this challenging. I'm
[01:41:26] sure there was some that you didn't
[01:41:27] understand. That's what I'm trying to
[01:41:28] do. I've called this signal, alpha, and
[01:41:31] agency. The signal part of what I do is
[01:41:34] if you're listening to Jeremy Grantham,
[01:41:35] you're going to be entertained. If
[01:41:37] you're listening to Michael Bur, you're
[01:41:38] going to be entertained, but I guarantee
[01:41:39] they're not going to make you money. If
[01:41:42] you come for alpha, I'm giving you the
[01:41:44] names on the site. Meaning, you can have
[01:41:46] the hundred names. I have a 10 name
[01:41:48] index that people can focus on in 25 and
[01:41:51] the agency side is something very
[01:41:53] important which we didn't really discuss
[01:41:54] but I'll just say it here. I have one
[01:41:57] thing that I gave out to my subscribers
[01:41:59] a month ago and there the response has
[01:42:02] been overwhelming. I don't know Angela
[01:42:03] if you have this yet but I I gave out
[01:42:06] the instructions of how to create a
[01:42:08] Jensen Yuang knowledge brain
[01:42:10] which is done. Yeah, you did. So the the
[01:42:15] way that this works is I created
[01:42:17] something that it just goes to YouTube
[01:42:18] and it takes all of the transcripts of
[01:42:20] Jensen Yuang that he's done this year
[01:42:22] and that is what you're working on on
[01:42:24] your quote unquote LLM. It does it in
[01:42:26] co-work and so that is the only
[01:42:28] information that it basically has from
[01:42:31] Jensen Yuong and you can ask it go into
[01:42:33] the internet if you want but that is a
[01:42:35] brain and people have done it of mine.
[01:42:37] Multiple people have taken all of my
[01:42:39] transcripts my video and created a Jordy
[01:42:41] brain. You can do it with your favorite
[01:42:43] fantasy football person. You can do it
[01:42:45] with anything. The reason I bring it up
[01:42:46] here is as people have done it, it has
[01:42:49] opened up the door for empowerment. And
[01:42:51] that is the agency side. It is very hard
[01:42:54] to get started with this. But once you
[01:42:56] do something that takes 30 to 45
[01:42:57] minutes, you feel proud. You realize the
[01:43:00] potential of it. It leads to a lot of
[01:43:02] things in your workflow. It will change
[01:43:03] overnight. But you have to do that first
[01:43:05] kind of complex thing. And rather than
[01:43:07] me give something where it's just a
[01:43:09] prompt and you just put it in and you
[01:43:10] press go, this is one where you actually
[01:43:13] have to do a little bit of work, but I
[01:43:14] give you all of the instructions in
[01:43:16] there and within 45 minutes, no matter
[01:43:18] what your experience is, you will have
[01:43:20] built a knowledge brain that allows you
[01:43:22] to ask questions. Hey, if I'm what what
[01:43:24] would Jensen Yong tell me to invest in
[01:43:26] today based on what I just saw in X and
[01:43:29] it will give you an answer.
[01:43:30] I mean, I'll add a little bit to that,
[01:43:32] Jordy, if you don't mind. Jord's work in
[01:43:35] that arena and I know many of you second
[01:43:38] brain what is that actually it's not
[01:43:40] that hard and you better know it you
[01:43:42] better be familiar with people like
[01:43:45] Andre Carpathy pardon me I messed up his
[01:43:48] name I have dyslexia what can I say
[01:43:51] Jord's work in understanding that and
[01:43:53] being a subscriber anyone I don't care
[01:43:57] if you're not fluid in technology you
[01:44:00] will be able to do this his work is
[01:44:03] incredible I'm a advocate. And for my
[01:44:06] members, they get two books totaling 500
[01:44:08] pages that I wrote that talk about
[01:44:10] advanced topics like skills, markdowns,
[01:44:13] second brains, building agents, building
[01:44:16] my own software programs and helping
[01:44:18] family offices do the same. So Jord's
[01:44:21] work is incredible. I'm a huge fan. And
[01:44:23] for those of you interested, go to
[01:44:25] angelro.com,
[01:44:27] especially if a family office, and jump
[01:44:29] on in. And Jordy is a part of that at
[01:44:31] certain programs that we do where it's a
[01:44:33] very deep dive and you get to meet him
[01:44:35] one-on-one. I really enjoy his services.
[01:44:38] They're very valuable to me. And Jordy,
[01:44:41] I guess on that note, were both so happy
[01:44:44] being in the same age bracket uh that
[01:44:46] our New York Knicks my favorite era was
[01:44:50] probably Pat Riley's 91 through 94. My
[01:44:53] favorite player was Anthony Mason. I
[01:44:56] kind of like the lunch pale kind of
[01:44:58] guys. uh you go back a little further in
[01:45:01] your Nick fandom, but you know, kudos
[01:45:03] Jaylen Brunson, the whole team, Mike
[01:45:05] Brown. You did an incredible job. Very
[01:45:08] proud of the team. And let's run it back
[01:45:09] and do it again. I'm sure you'll agree,
[01:45:11] Jordy. Where Jordy and I do differ.
[01:45:15] Jordy, you're also a Mets and a Jets
[01:45:17] fan. That's a tough one. [laughter]
[01:45:20] As far as I'm concerned, I got all I
[01:45:22] needed. The Knicks were my number one
[01:45:24] team. Everything else, I don't care if
[01:45:26] any of them win a championship.
[01:45:27] Honestly, this was the greatest uh
[01:45:29] experience of my life. And I was at game
[01:45:31] three and game four in Madison Square
[01:45:33] Garden. I've seen hundreds of games from
[01:45:35] the next starting when I was uh a kid
[01:45:38] that would take the train in and sneak
[01:45:40] in the back door with the Haram Stevens
[01:45:43] uh uh people selling food there and
[01:45:45] cotton candy and I would get into the
[01:45:47] place, not have a seat. Uh but since
[01:45:49] there were no people there, I could sit
[01:45:50] wherever I wanted. So, I've come a long
[01:45:52] time with the team. It helped me develop
[01:45:54] as a person, probably helped my
[01:45:56] risk-taking. Uh there's a longer story
[01:45:58] there, but I I I'm just happy. I don't
[01:46:00] care if I'm a Mets fan and a Jets fan
[01:46:02] right now.
[01:46:02] I mean, you mentioned Bernard King
[01:46:04] earlier. That lit me up a little bit. If
[01:46:06] you mentioned Anthony Mason, I really
[01:46:07] sadly passed away a couple of years ago.
[01:46:10] And game four. So, you saw one of the
[01:46:12] greatest plays ever to end a game in NBA
[01:46:15] history, let alone the finals. That
[01:46:17] would be the OG tipin. So, that was
[01:46:19] incredible to watch here with my son at
[01:46:21] home. I'm glad you were there. Jordy,
[01:46:24] I've took way more of your time. I'm so
[01:46:26] sorry. You're an incredible guest. I
[01:46:28] hope my audience appreciated it and I
[01:46:31] look forward to seeing you in September.
[01:46:33] Thank you.
[01:46:33] I'll see you soon. Thanks, Angela.
[01:46:35] My pleasure. Thanks.