# Signal Over Noise: “The Most Important Moment in Human History”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9jB8SWuWbE

[00:00] All right.
[00:02] Congrats to all the uh the Nick fans out there.
[00:04] Uh big week for me.
[00:06] All right.
[00:10] So, uh we're getting towards the end of the first half of the year.
[00:14] Not as much happening this week, but between the new Fed chair, between uh some weakness in the hyperscalers, and a whole bunch of little odds and ends.
[00:25] There's a lot that a lot of dot connections this week um more than anything else.
[00:30] So, let me start just uh buzzing through it.
[00:32] And just so you know, this will be my last weekly in uh Brooklyn.
[00:36] I'll be in Maine uh through at least uh August, maybe some of September as well.
[00:44] So, first thing I wanted to do uh just because I had such a huge uh reach out from people and some great emails in terms of people that made it through this process last week, built their own brain, had their kids work on one.
[00:58] A couple people used the suggestion
[01:00] for people who uh listen to podcast for fantasy football.
[01:07] You have your top three to five, whatever the case as we get into the summer time.
[01:11] Follow these instructions and do the same thing.
[01:12] Uh you're going to have it.
[01:15] But more importantly, for all of you who did do it, that's part of the game plan in this weekly video is to make sure that you're um ahead of 99% of the people on the planet in terms of using AI.
[01:23] And if you can build follow those instructions for the 30 minutes, build the second one, build the third one, whatever the case, uh you're ahead of the game.
[01:31] So, um just on that note because I made this comment of everything that I'm basically doing is Signa Alpha agency on these podcasts.
[01:35] And now that I'm doing a lot more consulting uh for firms and for them to get through it, I just want to make sure that that is the theme for this and that you leave this video understanding uh how important the signal is to avoid the noise.
[01:51] There is an enormous amount of noise between the bubble talk, the tariffs last year.
[02:01] I'm I I'm not sure the oil doomer situation, the way it's played out, wasn't more than the tariff situation last year.
[02:09] The AI bubble trade, which obviously has been a theme.
[02:11] I don't care what it is, guys.
[02:13] Part of what I'm trying to do is actually give you facts on things.
[02:18] And eventually, if we have a bear market, we're going to talk about it here.
[02:23] If you guys have gotten to know me on this, I really don't care.
[02:26] This is an opportunity for alpha, and this theme continues to play out for all you RIAs and financial advisers who have not reached out yet, your portfolio is suffering every single month that you're not overweight towards the CapEx trade.
[02:41] I'm going to go through a lot of the details on this because it has been an intense first half of the year.
[02:47] Depending on how you measure it, you're talking 40 to 50% of alpha lost.
[02:55] Uh based on just keeping your weightings the same way in passive investments or moving into ETFs that theoretically are AI but have way too much weighting.
[03:02] towards software.
[03:04] And then the agency side, like I just said with the knowledge brain, you got to help yourself, you got to help your business, you got to help your children, and you definitely have to hedge your clients.
[03:13] And that's what a lot of the stuff that I'm focused on is to get people to use this.
[03:17] For the week, I don't know how this is a bubble.
[03:18] I mean, I I had to post this chart just as we come into the week just because we had a consolidation here for a while.
[03:28] We went down on the on the Iran fears, and then we ripped out of here, and now we've been consolidating again for the last month.
[03:35] So, basically, we rallied for 6 weeks, then we consolidated for 4 weeks.
[03:44] That is basically a bull market in definition where, over the course, we haven't really moved that far.
[03:47] Now, again, one of the ways to measure bubbles and any issue is both evaluation basis and then also the distance between the 200-day to see how far ahead we are.
[03:59] Uh the bubble talk doesn't stop.
[04:00] So, here's the Economist.
[04:02] It is just hilarious how
[04:05] every one of the permabears when the Economist comes out with anything on the dollar, on rates, on the Fed, on the market, on anything, they immediately use it as a contrarian signal, but no one is sending this out this week where basically it's saying that the US market has reached the mania stage.
[04:21] So, you want to go on the opposite side of the Economist all the time.
[04:23] Well, there's one way to do it.
[04:24] Um I just want to make sure as we finish the first half of the year.
[04:28] It's been an extraordinary year for this.
[04:31] The S&P 500 PEG ratio, so the the PE divided by the earnings growth rate.
[04:39] So, first of all, for the S&P 600, the small cap side, look how much it's collapsed and basically got down to the lowest level.
[04:45] It's not just the level of it, it's how far down it came.
[04:47] The only way that happens is if the PE is expanding by less than the growth rate or go the opposite way.
[04:57] In this case, obviously the PE is growing rapidly.
[05:00] In terms of the blue line here or the red line here, which is the S&P 500,
[05:06] we're finishing this year at basically the lowest PEG ratio in the last 22 years on this.
[05:14] Um and obviously it was much higher as we went into the dot bomb the dot-com bubble.
[05:19] So, from evaluation basis, we just haven't done anything yet.
[05:24] On a relative to the 200-day moving average, this is the S&P rolling uh over time percentage above the 200-day moving average.
[05:30] We're currently 8.66 above the 200-day moving average.
[05:35] I mean, we're nowhere in bubble territory.
[05:37] This is the way a bull market is supposed to be.
[05:39] You hang out in this area for a long period of time.
[05:42] Uh basically in 2016 to 2019, we kind of sat in there the whole time.
[05:47] The thing I would say is we've had a lot of flush outs, a lot of breaking of the 200-day moving average.
[05:54] We just cleanse the system constantly.
[05:57] Um here are the queues again, incredibly strong chart, and now we're getting close to making new highs again.
[06:01] IWMs did make new all-time highs.
[06:04] The fact
[06:06] that small caps are making new all-time highs, the fact that their PEG ratio is collapsing.
[06:10] So, this is being driven by earnings.
[06:12] In fact, the price going up is going slower than the earnings growth is going.
[06:17] That's the only way you have the PEG ratio go down.
[06:19] The momentum trade consolidated, and as I mentioned last week, a lot of volatility in here.
[06:25] In fact, this is the TMT side for the tech side.
[06:28] It is the highest 30-day realized vol.
[06:30] You're just getting And this is a way that you shake people out as well.
[06:33] So, there's a variety of ways to get people to not be comfortable in a trade.
[06:36] For long short people, just increase the volatility.
[06:40] They see the P&L moving a ton, and it's very hard to stay in.
[06:45] You had the uh this is the industrials uh momentum, which came down and has rallied back.
[06:50] So, we're flushing out.
[06:52] It's just not happening the way that people want.
[06:54] Now, for the month, the S&P's down 1%.
[06:57] Again, a consolidation month, and in a consolidation, we're getting rotation.
[07:03] So, you've got the tech side led by the hyperscalers on the downside.
[07:05] You have
[07:07] The AI trade on the upside.
[07:10] And here is the hyperscalers relative to the S&P.
[07:15] This is a big part of my overall thesis.
[07:15] This is the CapEx arbitrage uh benchmark arbitrage for all you RIAs and FAs.
[07:21] Again, if you want a presentation on this, it's very simple.
[07:26] Everyone's overweight the spenders um by definition because of the market cap.
[07:30] So, if you're discretionary, I'm sure you're not as long on the hyperscalers as you've been.
[07:34] The Mag 7 fit into the same thing.
[07:36] We've seen massive multiple compression for the space.
[07:37] Uh Uh, but this month is one of the worst months for the hyperscalers in the last decade relative to the S&P with a 9% or eight and change percent underperformance.
[07:51] Uh, and here are the names month-to-date.
[07:54] Uh, all of them are down.
[07:54] Microsoft and Amazon and Meta, I'm going to get into some of these, but all of them have been hit.
[08:00] And here is my thematic portfolio uh, relative to the hyperscalers.
[08:05] So, now we're unchanged since the launch
[08:08] of ChatGPT on a relative basis.
[08:12] This is just beginning, guys.
[08:15] Still in the early innings.
[08:17] Kevin Warsh comes out.
[08:18] Let's continue with the noise theory.
[08:20] This is the headline.
[08:22] Stance fuels US interest rate hike bets.
[08:24] The insanity that just keeps moving from bearish thing to bearish thing.
[08:28] I don't care what anyone says about was this hawkish, was it not.
[08:30] We're just We treat Everyone's keep trying to look for ways to do it.
[08:35] I'm just going to reiterate two-year rates.
[08:37] If you've been focused on two-year rates since 2022, you're in misery.
[08:42] Why bother?
[08:44] Why bother?
[08:45] There's nothing there.
[08:47] We're in a long-term range while AI's been exploding.
[08:48] Here's 10-year rates, same theme.
[08:52] If you want to get into what moves them, it's real simple.
[08:53] If you think Warsh is going to raise rates aggressively, not move 25 basis points before the end of the year and maybe 25 more, but move it aggressively, here is the chart of the Fed funds rate versus two-year rates and 10-year rates.
[09:07] If you take out the
[09:09] movement by the Fed, there's been no movement.
[09:13] It's all related to Fed fund rate hikes.
[09:15] So, unless you believe inflation is going to go higher or the job creation is going to accelerate, of which the only one that I thought there was any chance of was the inflation side, and I'm sorry.
[09:30] So, back before the Fed aggressively led, what led?
[09:32] This purple line led.
[09:34] These were inflation expectations for 1 year, which were rising well in front of the Fed, and they bailed on transitory almost near the peak of it.
[09:40] So, once they started to fight inflation, this went down.
[09:42] I just want to show you.
[09:45] So, there is the beginning of Iran and the US, and we took this up.
[09:53] The inflation swaps have just collapsed.
[09:57] So, I don't see anything on the inflation front at this point for people to be talking about.
[10:01] So, we had the Iran peace deal.
[10:04] It's Saturday morning.
[10:06] There's the rumor about I.
[10:08] I'm sick of even talking about it at
[10:10] this point.
[10:11] But, what I am going to talk about is for someone who really believed.
[10:15] So, everyone gets sucked into noise, but people like at my age that have been in the markets for 30 years, we actually do listen.
[10:21] I listen to all of the people like Jeff Curry.
[10:26] All If you've watched my video all this year, I've highlighted all of the things they've talked about.
[10:31] Now, I keep one eye open looking for the charts, cuz at the end of the day, if what they're saying is right, this should not be happening.
[10:38] And I just remember here when everyone said, "Don't pay attention to the paper side.
[10:42] Pay attention to the physical side."
[10:44] And this is the dated Brent price.
[10:47] We got up to over 140,
[10:49] and we had the paper side all the way down here.
[10:53] Well, now they're both in line.
[10:55] The futures on Brent and the dated Brent, they're at the same point.
[10:57] How can you refute If there's going to be some mega spike up to 300, why are we back to where we were?
[11:04] At some point, the prices of the movements happen.
[11:07] You can sit there and speculate all you want, but this is a
[11:11] live gambling market.
[11:13] This is where the odds are.
[11:15] This is the tote board telling you that you're missing something.
[11:17] Now, you still could be right betting it's going to go up.
[11:19] Trust me, I'm long Exxon.
[11:20] I'm long Chevron as part of my portfolio.
[11:22] All I've done is cost me money.
[11:24] Same thing as silver.
[11:25] Same thing as Bitcoin.
[11:28] So, I'll get through that.
[11:28] On Fri- On Thursday alone, Uh, I've 20 names in the portfolio that I have personally in my PA.
[11:35] 18 of them were down on the day, two of them were up.
[11:37] Now, luckily, I was still up a good amount, but that's only because of Integrys and because of Marvell.
[11:42] The rest of them were all down.
[11:45] So, you're definitely getting a scenario that if you're not in the the AI theme trade and you're listening to the noise, you're paying a huge price on all of these.
[11:55] You don't hear any of the permabears talking about gold right now.
[11:57] There's nothing really to talk about now that oil prices haven't gone.
[11:59] This is gas at the pump.
[12:00] This was gas at the pump on Thursday.
[12:02] We're below four now.
[12:05] This implies about 375.
[12:07] So, you've got gas moving lower.
[12:10] I I just read
[12:12] I just saw a video which came out over the weekend uh, with Chris Whalen still calling for double-digit inflation and using fertilizer as one of the things for the second half of the year.
[12:25] And again, when I listen to this stuff, here's fertilizer price.
[12:28] I mean, this is urea.
[12:32] It It went up and it has completely collapsed the spot price in New Orleans.
[12:37] So, the reality is for everything going on, crude prices have come down.
[12:40] 10-year rates are still sitting up here.
[12:44] Everyone's focused that the Fed is being hawkish.
[12:48] Here's 10-year rates versus the inflation swaps.
[12:50] So, maybe everyone is right, but right now we had the largest drop in 1-year inflation swaps since basically the lows in stock in 2022.
[13:02] The peak in inflation.
[13:06] That's when I mean, literally, you had the actual peak in inflation swaps here and then from that point it went down.
[13:12] shown many times the 1970s, you don't want to be fading against inflation when it's a PTSD from people there.
[13:18] So, everyone who's macro side is looking for rate hikes, hawkish Fed, inflation's going higher.
[13:24] Here's the reality.
[13:26] This is the CPI.
[13:28] If you don't believe the inflation swaps matter, they matter.
[13:31] Here's the inflation swaps going down, not just 1 year, but 2 year as well, and they're back down into the 2 and 1/2 area.
[13:36] So, CPI it it looks like it's peaked, and it's headed lower, which I showed last week.
[13:44] Um I got to give a shout out to Trueflation.
[13:45] So, I I gave them a lot of hell because I it was obvious to me that we were going to get above 4%, which we did on CPI, but how you have the swaps going down, and you have Trueflation going back down as well.
[13:58] And the reason I care about this is because the forecast right now, midway through June, this will come out in July, for CPI for the month of June is now at zero by the Cleveland Fed, which will
[14:13] take the year-over-year down to 4%.
[14:18] Um don't forget this war story.
[14:20] This is the thing I took out of the press conference is his focus on task forces, but remember the measures I prefer looking at things that are called trim averages.
[14:29] So, if he wants to get buy-in from the group that they shouldn't be focused on the things they're focused on, and they should be focused on trim, which I don't have a problem on, but more importantly, he said there's a task force to reevaluate inflation, productivity, and jobs.
[14:43] This is everything related to AI.
[14:47] It really is.
[14:52] So, again, if AI is a deflationary force, I want you to focus on how little volatility the trimmed has.
[14:57] So, this is the Cleveland Fed trim trimmed median.
[14:59] The main thing about it is, except for this one move here, you're pretty much dealing with less volatility, significantly less than the CPI.
[15:09] Here's the Atlanta Fed core sticky white line here.
[15:12] This is core PCE right now,
[15:16] and then you've got the Dallas trimmed median,
[15:20] or trim mean.
[15:22] This is the San Francisco Fed one.
[15:24] This is a great page to go to just because of one thing in particular.
[15:29] So, it'll give you the their different measures in terms of this.
[15:33] The thing I care the most about in here is how narrow this blue is around this blue for again the median.
[15:38] And you're sitting not too far off where we've were before.
[15:42] Rates are significantly higher than where they were before.
[15:44] So, the median is at 2.99 and the 10-year average is at 2.91.
[15:53] That includes both the disinflation period of the prior decade and obviously the COVID period.
[15:59] So, you're getting a little of both.
[16:00] Um you know, I called out Peter Boockvar as in last week.
[16:03] This is another noise thing.
[16:05] How many times and again, I want to show this because how many times have we basically said the US consumer is dead?
[16:13] How many times?
[16:15] It just continues to happen.
[16:15] Delinquencies are going up.
[16:17] Consumer confidence has collapsed, which again, this is the lowest consumer confidence.
[16:23] I talked about this with Pomp this weekend.
[16:25] Here's the facts, guys.
[16:25] Again, how noisy was that?
[16:27] This is all you got to do.
[16:29] The Johnson Red Book, which comes out every week, year-over-year.
[16:33] 9% highest.
[16:33] I mean, this goes back to 1997.
[16:36] This is 30 years of data except for when we literally gave money out and handed out.
[16:42] Spending is happening.
[16:44] There is no recession.
[16:46] There is no weak consumer.
[16:48] Revisions, another real-time gauge of what's happening.
[16:50] They continue to sit up at high levels.
[16:52] They are not moving down at all and I've shown this chart before.
[16:56] This is the S&P 500 overlaid.
[17:00] Revisions are going higher.
[17:02] Before we get a significant fall in stocks, there's got to be something on the revision side to show a problem.
[17:08] We just every week are pumping out big numbers in estimate revisions.
[17:11] It helps that PEG ratio continue.
[17:15] When we don't go up fast, the S&P's
[17:18] Earnings are up 28% year over year.
[17:20] The S&P's not up 28% year over year.
[17:22] There's multiple compression happening.
[17:24] On the credit side, again, I've talked about this.
[17:27] This ended up being noise.
[17:29] At some point, you have to admit, I highlighted repeatedly everybody who was going through this, including myself, worried that this could be something cuz we had this happening.
[17:37] This is credit spreads, junk spreads, inverted.
[17:39] This is private equity relative stocks relative to the S&P, and this is the BDC index.
[17:49] Well, credit spreads are back to all-time tights, and we haven't seen a change there.
[17:52] So, at some point, there's got to be another story.
[17:54] And if you want to go hear the other story, I thought uh I think his name is Dan Ivascyn.
[17:59] Uh he was on Compound and Friends.
[18:05] Uh he's the uh head of PIMCO now.
[18:08] And he basically went through, and I'm just going to read a couple of these things because I think what he everything he said, despite global uncertainty, Ivascyn remains
[18:18] constructive on the US economy because the consumer balance sheet is solid.
[18:21] We see that through the spending, and we see it through the junk spreads.
[18:24] Labor markets have held up.
[18:26] There's no way to refute that.
[18:28] We're not creating many jobs, but we're holding up.
[18:30] And the AI-related spending is massive.
[18:32] Absolutely.
[18:35] Sees enormous investment needs across AI.
[18:37] Yes, that's not going away anytime soon, even though there could be air pockets, which I'll talk about.
[18:41] Stresses that lenders must negotiate strong terms because many AI-related borrowers still have uncertain long-term economics.
[18:50] Absolutely true.
[18:51] AI infrastructure can offer two-box safer ones and riskier ones that would have to provide equity-like returns.
[18:56] The capital loss cycle is not expected to be a dramatic wave of defaults, but rather a steady stream of higher realized losses in risky credit because old businesses, even in the macro economy, are going to be hurt by the AI disruption.
[19:12] I couldn't put it any better.
[19:14] Um I believe that to be the case.
[19:17] If you want to take it further, I think the thing that's going to The era
[19:19] of income without losses is ending.
[19:21] That is the big thing.
[19:21] The constant bailouts.
[19:23] We are not having bailouts.
[19:25] That's the biggest thing that I will take from Kevin Warsh is that the Fed's not cutting rates.
[19:29] So, if inflation, based on a lot of metrics, is slightly above where it was in 2019 before COVID, and yet the Fed funds rate is significantly above where it was, then we actually in monetary terms, why do we need to be doing any kind of big tightening unless we see the jobs market start creating a significant amount, which I don't see happening with AI.
[19:50] And at the same point, the inflation stuff is just not going anywhere right now, and the economy doesn't look great.
[19:58] The new loss cycle is not one giant default wave.
[20:01] It is a steady grind from borrowers whose old modes no longer protect them.
[20:04] A recession is about getting rid of the weak and letting the strong grow.
[20:09] Guys, that's exactly what's happening.
[20:10] It's just not happening in the way that I've said before.
[20:13] This is not about companies that borrowed money in the last period.
[20:16] This is about companies
[20:20] that have been borrowing money for way
[20:22] too long, that were bailed out. The
[20:24] zombies are going away.
[20:26] So, that is the signal versus the noise.
[20:28] Ignore the noise, and every time it
[20:30] comes up, you're losing money by
[20:32] listening to them. I cost myself money
[20:35] by listening to this in the energy side
[20:38] and believing a lot of what I was
[20:40] hearing, not to get bearish, but to put
[20:42] on hedges. And every time hedges have
[20:44] gone on, they've been wrong. Uh I got
[20:46] out of Micron in the 600s. It's above a
[20:48] thousand. There's plenty of areas where
[20:51] I've just been
[20:52] focused too much that this can't
[20:54] continue because this chart looks scary.
[20:56] It is a cliff chart. But, you know when
[20:58] people are bearish on this? In here. In
[21:01] here. In here. If I go show you every
[21:03] single person in X, I'd be done. And
[21:06] this is literally 100% wrong.
[21:11] Here are the movements, and again,
[21:13] this can't last. It's lasted, guys. You
[21:16] want to be long semi-short software. If
[21:19] you don't believe me, here's Adobe. How
[21:21] many people said this was stupid? Okay?
[21:24] It's either getting more stupid, or
[21:25] maybe
[21:27] myself using AI saying that these things
[21:30] are done. There's no reason to use Adobe
[21:32] when you can get free amazing visuals
[21:35] like the chalkboards I'm showing you
[21:36] that take 2 seconds to do as long as
[21:39] you're using AI. If you're not using it,
[21:41] I get it. You think that we still live
[21:42] in a world like this. Here's CRM,
[21:45] Salesforce,
[21:46] continuing to puke out. So, I want to
[21:48] get back to this.
[21:50] My thematic portfolio relative to the
[21:52] hyperscalers. So, I showed this last
[21:55] week. My thematic portfolio, about 20
[21:58] trillion in market cap. The
[22:00] hyperscalers, four of them.
[22:02] You're dealing with a market cap that's
[22:04] somewhere around 14 trillion.
[22:07] When you add in Nvidia, and you add in
[22:09] the other ones, you're getting up to 22.
[22:12] Regardless of what you want to do,
[22:14] I've given you multiple ways. So, this
[22:16] is the thematic portfolio, then there's
[22:18] the concentrated one with uh 10 names,
[22:21] and then there's the less concentrated
[22:23] but still concentrated 25 name, and then
[22:26] Morgan Stanley for all the RIAs, call up
[22:28] Lou Mandia, you know him, talk to him.
[22:31] We started doing this. We've done some
[22:33] swaps on it. We're going to do more on
[22:35] this, but they have my index, they have
[22:38] it there. We're starting to do more on
[22:40] it, and here's the alpha that's been
[22:41] created. Now, this is the one that they
[22:43] created, which equal weight this month.
[22:46] Um obviously, that reduces the weight of
[22:48] the massive winners, which have
[22:50] contributed more in terms of the way
[22:52] that I show it on here in Bloomberg cuz
[22:53] I don't reweight it. But, regardless,
[22:56] you're going to have an index that will
[22:57] be reweighted every quarter. Um this is
[23:01] it relative to the hyperscalers. So,
[23:03] again, at the beginning of the year,
[23:04] just look at the beauty of the trend in
[23:07] terms of the 50-day moving average just
[23:09] moving and here are the weekly moves.
[23:11] And the main thing I want to take again,
[23:13] when you look at Sortino ratios or you
[23:15] look at anything, look how many up
[23:17] weeks, these are weekly moves, are above
[23:19] 5%. You have one below. You now have
[23:22] five above. If you take it to 3 and
[23:25] 1/2%, you're dealing with about 10 to
[23:27] two. It doesn't really matter. The ratio
[23:29] comes out the same. And that is the
[23:30] alpha. That is what your capex is my
[23:32] opportunity, the benchmark arbitrage.
[23:35] And again, I'm going to say it again and
[23:36] again, I don't think this is changing at
[23:38] all. I am not I'm not only negative on
[23:41] the hyperscalers from a multiple
[23:43] compression basis.
[23:44] I think we're seeing some pretty
[23:46] gruesome signs now, which I'm going to
[23:47] go through. So, alpha, your a capex is
[23:50] my opportunity, that is the focal point.
[23:53] The AI spending boom is creating a
[23:54] depreciation time bomb. Google, Meta,
[23:56] Amazon, Microsoft have all splurged to
[23:58] secure podium spot in the race to build
[24:00] out the infrastructure that will run the
[24:02] artificial intelligence. The reason I
[24:03] wanted to show this, this is in the oil
[24:05] price side. If anyone knows what
[24:07] spending on stuff where price is going
[24:10] down and there's hypercompetition,
[24:12] it would be the fracking side. So, just
[24:15] keep it in the back of your mind, the
[24:16] issue inside. So, if we're looking at
[24:18] the hyperscalers and we're trying to
[24:20] figure out what the negative is, we know
[24:21] that somewhere in the future they hope
[24:24] to make money.
[24:25] Okay, great. Here's the problem.
[24:29] The issue is just growing rapidly. So,
[24:32] they have to spend an enormous amount of
[24:34] money to try and get
[24:36] the ROI they're getting
[24:39] inside Azure, inside all of
[24:42] the cloud. Um, the cash flow. So, I've
[24:45] given Peter some uh negative stuff. Here
[24:48] Here's one thing he put in there this
[24:50] week. Again, this is what the
[24:52] expectations are to come back. This may
[24:55] happen.
[24:56] But again, there's a lot of ifs and a
[24:58] lot of question marks and by 2030, I'm
[25:01] telling you you cannot predict what the
[25:03] world is going to look like. This
[25:05] spending here
[25:07] needs to happen for them to have a
[25:08] chance at this.
[25:10] It's very hard for them to not do this
[25:12] and have a chance at this because they
[25:14] are a big established company.
[25:16] Think about how fast Anthropic has
[25:18] grown. Think about how fast OpenAI has
[25:20] and I'm not going to say this
[25:22] too loud. Gemini has fallen way behind.
[25:26] So for all of you Google fans out there
[25:28] thinking that they're going to dominate
[25:30] this,
[25:31] I don't know what's going on,
[25:33] but the amount we've had 22 model
[25:35] upgrades since the Iran war
[25:38] uh Iran-US war started. 22 upgrades.
[25:41] We've had Opus 4.7, 4.8. We've had
[25:44] Mythos. We've had Fable 5. We've pulled
[25:46] it back. Gemini's had garbage since
[25:49] then. I don't even use it Nana Banana
[25:51] anymore because OpenAI has surpassed
[25:53] that. So I don't know what's going on in
[25:55] Google Gemini, but you start falling
[25:56] behind too fast and you don't you don't
[25:58] have models coming out when we're
[25:59] already looking at 5.6.
[26:02] I
[26:03] there's something going on and as I go
[26:04] through these, just remember the
[26:05] hyperscalers have to spend a lot of
[26:07] money and they have to make sure the
[26:08] money is going to certain places. So
[26:11] there's no way to look at this chart of
[26:12] free cash flow and not realize that this
[26:14] is a massive bet. It's all I'm going to
[26:17] say and that's why I want to be short
[26:18] these. They might end up winning,
[26:20] surviving. I don't think they're
[26:22] winning.
[26:24] Here's the Microsoft chart. This is a
[26:26] gruesome chart. This is not good. They
[26:29] are unchanged and basically since
[26:31] ChatGPT came out, they just keep going
[26:33] lower and lower. This is the 200-week
[26:34] moving average. I showed it when they
[26:35] broke it here. They just cannot get away
[26:37] from it. So
[26:39] like it is with Bitcoin, when you run up
[26:40] to technical levels and you fail again
[26:42] and you go right back down, that is not
[26:44] a good sign. Uh Microsoft fits in the
[26:46] same boat. This one,
[26:48] I can't believe the chart looks this
[26:50] good. I don't even know how Meta is
[26:52] alive in this point at with this. If you
[26:54] go back to 2024 and you go look at who
[26:57] led the open source model side, it was
[27:00] a name you never hear anymore, Llama.
[27:04] Meta hired all these people they paid
[27:06] billions of dollars a year ago. What do
[27:08] they have to show for it?
[27:09] I'll show you what they have to show for
[27:11] it.
[27:13] Um
[27:15] Alexander Wang, this is who they hired.
[27:17] Okay.
[27:20] It was a $15 billion hire.
[27:22] Um
[27:24] Meta's new AI unit is a total mess.
[27:26] Executives and employees alike are
[27:28] struggling with the chaotic AI strategy.
[27:31] This week in TechCrunch,
[27:33] uh Meta's month-old AI unit is a
[27:35] soul-crushing gulag.
[27:37] Now a new report, I mean, it's starting
[27:40] to spread throughout Silicon Valley. I'm
[27:41] a prisoner in the unit Meta calls the
[27:43] gulag.
[27:44] I build labels now. Before the queue, I
[27:47] was an engineer.
[27:50] CTO says morale is near the worst it's
[27:52] ever been during increasing snack
[27:54] budgets.
[27:55] Top Meta AI leader leaves just months
[27:58] after restructuring overhaul.
[28:01] Again, Meta, which company will have uh
[28:03] the number one AI model by December
[28:05] 31st? Like I said, Google is still up
[28:08] here.
[28:09] I don't know what that's all about.
[28:11] Uh Google and Meta may have the worst
[28:14] the most to lose in the AI agentic era.
[28:16] So, this is the thing that I want you
[28:18] guys to think about and just keep in the
[28:20] back of your mind um
[28:22] because I happen to agree with
[28:24] the way that people need to start
[28:26] looking at these things. The companies
[28:28] with the most to lose in an AI agent
[28:30] future could be some of the today's
[28:32] biggest technology platforms. Rather
[28:33] than asking which company develops the
[28:35] smartest AI model,
[28:37] he says the more important question is
[28:39] what happens when AI agents begin
[28:40] performing tasks currently handled by
[28:42] humans. This is why I focus so much on
[28:45] crypto
[28:46] and less on everything that has been in
[28:48] the past about what has worked. So, I
[28:51] would just keep it in the back of your
[28:53] mind. And this is a big change that's
[28:55] happening. So, in the long thematic
[28:57] portfolio short the hyperscalers, Micron
[29:01] could overtake Meta in stunning AI power
[29:03] shift. I have no doubt that is
[29:06] going to happen either from them or from
[29:09] more than them in terms of the hardware
[29:11] names.
[29:12] Fable five, if you guys haven't focused
[29:14] on it, I'm going to do a a lot of things
[29:16] on here and start connecting some dots
[29:18] for you on the other issue of the
[29:19] hyperscalers and why this token index
[29:21] thing is so big. So, Fable five, um I
[29:24] didn't get a chance to talk much about
[29:25] it last week because everything happened
[29:27] Friday night. But, there was a lot of
[29:30] great podcasts which I'm going to highly
[29:32] recommend you understand the importance
[29:34] of shutting down Fable five. First thing
[29:36] I want you to do,
[29:37] uh Leopold Aschenbrenner.
[29:40] So, he's gotten a lot of attention
[29:42] for his situational awareness hedge
[29:45] fund. But, just remember, he wrote a
[29:47] paper, situational awareness. So, his
[29:50] genius is in understanding what is
[29:52] coming.
[29:54] Inside the situational awareness,
[29:56] when you go to number four, the project,
[30:00] as the race to AGI intensifies, the
[30:01] national security state will get
[30:03] involved. Government stops Fable five.
[30:07] The United States government will wake
[30:08] from its slumber and by 27, 2027, 2028,
[30:12] we'll get some form of government AGI
[30:13] project. No startup can handle
[30:15] superintelligence.
[30:18] That is what we're getting to right now.
[30:21] So, he forecasted that in this.
[30:26] I'm writing a paper on it.
[30:28] His original essay no longer reads like
[30:30] science fiction or abstract futurism. It
[30:32] reads more like an early map of the
[30:34] world we're entering. And I want to get
[30:35] into that because there's a lot of other
[30:37] issues
[30:38] that show up which I'll get into by the
[30:40] end that he didn't predict yet. So, all
[30:43] in, very good podcast on this. I didn't
[30:46] care about the rest of it, but the
[30:49] backlash on Fable and what this all
[30:51] means.
[30:53] The panel argued that enterprise AI now
[30:55] face governance and single provider
[30:57] risk.
[30:58] Anthropic's approach is a warning that
[31:00] companies need model diversity and
[31:01] control. So, enterprises who were
[31:03] thinking of just using Anthropic, and
[31:06] especially the big the best model,
[31:10] if you're overseas, how can you do this?
[31:12] If anything was going to direct
[31:15] people to open source, this could push
[31:17] companies towards open source models,
[31:19] including Chinese models, because you
[31:21] just can't turn off AI. Basically,
[31:24] Freeberg said, "You can't regulate this.
[31:25] It's like the internet." And I
[31:27] completely agree, because everyone will
[31:29] just move, as I have already done, and I
[31:32] can't get the hardware necessary. I'll
[31:34] get into GLM 5.2,
[31:37] which came out. This is all a problem.
[31:40] So, if you're one of the model companies
[31:41] trying to get companies to pay for it,
[31:43] your prices are going through the roof.
[31:44] The last thing you want to do is have
[31:46] anything that scares off enterprises to
[31:49] say, "We need to move to Chinese models
[31:50] or some open source model to have it on
[31:53] our thing, to have control over it, not
[31:54] have to deal with that risk."
[31:56] It's an issue. At the same time, the
[31:57] cost of building a gigawatt, Chamath
[32:00] said it's now up to 100 billion. He has
[32:03] money at stake in this. He talked about
[32:05] this on there.
[32:07] And then Freeberg went through and
[32:08] rejected the AI destroys jobs narrative.
[32:12] Uh I'm completely in that camp, as I
[32:14] have been, but I am not in the hiring
[32:18] camp. I am in the we're just stuck with
[32:22] this whole scenario. He talks about how
[32:24] they need people, which is true.
[32:26] Again, what I said before with Dan
[32:28] Iveson at PIMCO, there is a recession
[32:31] happening. A recession from my
[32:32] definition is a rotation from the weak
[32:36] into the strong. AI native users are the
[32:39] strength. If you're a financial advisor
[32:41] working for an RIA that doesn't allow
[32:43] you to use AI,
[32:45] you're getting weaker by the day. If
[32:47] you're an RIA and you want to use AI,
[32:50] that is the reason why I'm spending time
[32:52] with places. You need to invest in it.
[32:54] You need to have an AI native mentality.
[32:56] You need to have this going on in your
[32:58] firm, and it can't just be handing
[32:59] people Claude code. That's not going to
[33:02] do it. Great article to read again on
[33:04] Fable, The Window Has Closed
[33:07] by Andrew Curran. It was I
[33:09] Everything about it to me just felt
[33:11] good, and there were two things. One is
[33:13] how incredible it is in terms of Fable
[33:17] 5. What I care about this, which again,
[33:22] we've reached a point that the models
[33:23] have gotten too good. That's the main
[33:26] thing you have to take. It becomes an
[33:28] issue. For the last 6 months, the money
[33:30] being made, which was not expected by
[33:33] any investor that I talked to, to this
[33:35] degree, is because they all joined into
[33:38] the agentic world. When you hit the
[33:40] agentic world, the next thing is
[33:42] recursive self-improvement. Recursive
[33:43] self-improvement, the models improve
[33:46] insanely [snorts] fast. That's how you
[33:47] can go from Opus 4.7, 4.8, Mythos. You
[33:51] start getting models faster. The places
[33:52] that are further away, they still have
[33:55] their models updating every 6 months to
[33:57] 9 months. So, think
[33:58] XAI at this point or Grok. Think Gemini
[34:01] at this point. The Chinese models are
[34:04] actually moving as fast. As open-source
[34:06] models approach frontier capabilities,
[34:08] the author expects a regulatory
[34:09] crackdown because governments will not
[34:10] tolerate that level of capability being
[34:12] widely widely available. A long AI is no
[34:15] longer just about coding benchmark
[34:17] copyright or productivity equals. It is
[34:19] now the most important technology in
[34:20] human history, and one that will change
[34:23] transform civilization itself.
[34:26] Absolutely the case. Okay.
[34:30] Now,
[34:32] back to the open source. So, again,
[34:35] there are tons of risk with this
[34:37] happening, and this is what Leopold did
[34:39] not predict. So, if you go back to his
[34:41] paper,
[34:42] yes, he predicted that the government
[34:44] would get involved as we get code closer
[34:46] to RSI. Once you get to RSI, you're
[34:49] right before AGI, but he did not think
[34:51] that open-source models could stay
[34:53] there. In fact, in his paper, he talked
[34:55] about the need for the government to get
[34:57] involved, so the Chinese specifically
[35:00] can't catch up.
[35:02] They already have caught up, and the
[35:04] competition means they can offer similar
[35:06] models
[35:08] at
[35:09] 10% of the price. That is the issue for
[35:12] the hyperscalers and all of the model
[35:14] companies is the ability for people to
[35:16] use this
[35:18] open-source. Uh they want control.
[35:21] Uh this is the Moonshots podcast from
[35:23] this week. Absolutely listen to this one
[35:26] as well. They talk about SpaceX. I'm
[35:28] sure most of you don't care. The
[35:30] Anthropic Fable 5 shutdown is treated as
[35:32] a major turning point. Enterprise trust
[35:34] in Frontier Labs is questioned. Altman's
[35:36] possible IPO delay. Codex setting its
[35:40] own goals. I'm going to go through why
[35:42] these are all important. First of all,
[35:43] on the Codex side,
[35:45] it's a shift from tax execution to into
[35:48] intent execution. Basically, the coding
[35:51] agents are doing the designing. So, when
[35:54] you put in where Codex is and that
[35:56] OpenAI is talking possibly about
[35:59] delaying their model, I'll get into the
[36:02] potential reasons why.
[36:04] But, Dave said this is a major moment in
[36:07] human history. Fable 5 and the
[36:09] government getting involved, it will
[36:10] only get worse from here.
[36:12] Um and this will become the new normal,
[36:14] as he said. The deeper issue is AI is no
[36:17] longer being treated like software. It's
[36:19] being treated like a strategic national
[36:21] security asset. I want you again to
[36:23] remember that every time you see AI as a
[36:25] bubble.
[36:27] Everyone who this, and most of them are
[36:29] older than me,
[36:31] I get it, or they're at the same age as
[36:33] me.
[36:34] The problem is they don't use it, guys.
[36:35] So, they're saying, "I've seen this
[36:37] innovation thing before."
[36:41] In terms of the IPO point, this is what
[36:43] Alex said, which I happen to think is a
[36:46] big risk for
[36:48] the CapEx trade.
[36:50] The deeper interpretation of OpenAI
[36:52] possibly um delaying their IPO is
[36:56] because recursive self-improvement is
[36:57] starting to work. Then technology may be
[37:00] beginning to substitute for capital.
[37:04] If it's improving, and again, I said
[37:06] this on Pomp, I'll say it to you guys
[37:08] now.
[37:09] These models are improving without the
[37:12] benefits of all the money being spent on
[37:13] CapEx right now.
[37:15] So, you have to understand that
[37:16] Blackwell and Vera Rubin, I mean,
[37:18] Blackwell's being run out. We just don't
[37:20] have many data centers that are finished
[37:21] yet. So, most of the improvements are
[37:24] actually coming from algorithmic
[37:27] efficiencies and from the models
[37:29] improving themselves. Now we're getting
[37:31] to the point where they're actually
[37:32] improving the models themselves as
[37:34] opposed to people figuring out reasoning
[37:36] and test-time compute and reinforcement
[37:39] learning and reinforcement learning with
[37:40] human feedback. All of those techniques
[37:44] and the Chinese using them and the US
[37:46] copying the Chinese ones and the Chinese
[37:48] doing new things and us get using more
[37:50] data.
[37:51] The major implications if the models are
[37:53] improving fast enough through algorithms
[37:55] and through agents and RSI, the market
[37:57] may eventually wonder whether the CapEx
[37:59] curve has been overestimated. I think
[38:01] about this every day, and the question
[38:03] is when will this become a narrative? I
[38:05] happen to agree with the fact that at
[38:07] some point there is a risk. I showed you
[38:09] the charts on Microsoft. I showed you
[38:11] the charts on Meta. If anyone starts
[38:13] believing, and I'll get into a little
[38:14] bit more Microsoft soon, you could end
[38:16] up with a a CapEx air pocket risk
[38:19] where the intelligence is moving so much
[38:22] faster than how they in infrastructure
[38:24] can be built, it may decide that
[38:26] building all that CapEx is not a good
[38:29] decision. So, the question is for the
[38:31] first time, I think there's a risk that
[38:33] some of these companies might change
[38:35] their CapEx, lower their CapEx. How will
[38:36] the market respond to that? I think
[38:38] we're getting closer to that point, even
[38:40] though in the long run, I think the
[38:41] numbers are going to get to 90 trillion,
[38:43] not the numbers we're talking about,
[38:44] because enterprises are going to have to
[38:46] build their own hardware. But,
[38:48] it's an issue. Fable five, that means
[38:50] other countries have to build their own
[38:52] data centers, and they have to have an a
[38:54] model in there, because they can't
[38:56] depend on the US allowing them to have
[38:57] the best model.
[39:00] Uh the singularity has gone open source,
[39:01] and it speaks Mandarin. Z A eyes GLM
[39:05] 5.2. This is from Alex Wizner Gross from
[39:08] Moonshots.
[39:10] This is where I translate into why the
[39:12] Fable five shutdown matters. So, I went
[39:15] through all of these different
[39:16] components in here.
[39:18] I highly recommend thinking about why it
[39:20] matters and why this is going on. But,
[39:22] one of the main reasons is it may
[39:23] accelerate sovereign AI and open open
[39:26] source uh
[39:27] adoption. And part of the reason is
[39:30] this model was released this week, beats
[39:33] GPT 5.5 on multiple long horizon coding
[39:36] benchmarks for 1/6 the cost.
[39:39] Every week there seems to be another
[39:40] one. The battlefield is different now.
[39:41] If open source is as good as frontier
[39:43] and people have cheaper alternatives,
[39:44] governments can't be as quick to
[39:45] regulate. It will destroy the frontier
[39:47] AI labs.
[39:50] Alex Finn, who uses all of these models,
[39:53] basically said it. They caught up. GLM
[39:54] 5.2 is as good as Opus 4.8. That is an
[39:57] insane statement, and if
[39:59] every metric and every benchmark is
[40:01] saying that, so again,
[40:06] open source 5.2 beats Anthropic I I'm
[40:09] just telling you, we've reached a point
[40:10] which is unbelievable. Now, that is a
[40:12] mixture of experts. So, think of it as a
[40:15] judge with a whole bunch of analysts
[40:18] going through things and then one judge
[40:19] making the final decision on things but
[40:22] using a mixture of experts. If you guys
[40:24] have done the prompt that I put up on
[40:26] the paywall about how to do investment
[40:28] ideas, I just did a new one on 800 volt
[40:32] DC.
[40:33] The names will go out this week.
[40:35] The main thing about it is I've always
[40:38] used a mixture of all of the models to
[40:40] come up and then one judge to go through
[40:42] it. That is similar to what GLM 5.2 that
[40:45] analogy is but so is Fusion API, the
[40:49] smartest compound model on the market.
[40:51] This is more in line with what I was
[40:53] doing which is using all of them. So now
[40:56] you've got Fusion which is taking not a
[40:58] mixture of expert, it's taking all of
[41:00] the best models through open router,
[41:02] taking the best answers and then putting
[41:04] them all together. So it's a compound
[41:05] thing and it's surpassing frontier
[41:08] performance. You're getting all of these
[41:09] ways to do things which in the end will
[41:12] be cheaper.
[41:13] Microsoft weighs DeepSeek for co-pilot
[41:16] work. Think about that.
[41:18] A Chinese company.
[41:22] Satya Nadella wrote this piece. I
[41:24] completely agree. You need to read this
[41:26] if you're running a business, especially
[41:29] understanding
[41:30] that for AI to work in your company, it
[41:32] needs to be an ecosystem and I
[41:34] completely agree and he's saying
[41:36] individual models will not be the
[41:37] solution and everyone's jumping in and
[41:40] leaping for Claude code and and
[41:42] Anthropic.
[41:44] Again, a year ago was OpenAI and chat
[41:46] enterprise. Everyone's just leaping and
[41:48] unless they figure a way to become AI
[41:50] native which is what the ecosystem
[41:52] basically describes,
[41:54] you're really going to be screwed on
[41:55] this. Give me a four sentence summary of
[41:57] this.
[41:58] So
[41:59] AI represents a unique shift.
[42:02] Everything in this and again, the human
[42:04] capital side think about as
[42:07] agency. The agency side is the human
[42:10] using the AI combining the power of the
[42:12] human being with the AI. This is why you
[42:15] have to have agency in doing this stuff
[42:17] yourself if you want to have a job, if
[42:19] you want your kids to have a job, but
[42:21] most importantly, if you want clients to
[42:23] help you out, there's no better way than
[42:24] to help them with the tools that I'm
[42:26] helping you with. Your clients will feel
[42:28] more powerful. This is about being
[42:30] empowered. The reason that the consumer
[42:32] confidence numbers are so low
[42:34] is not because of spending. It's not
[42:37] because of the ability to get a job, but
[42:38] it is the fear related to the job. It is
[42:41] the fear of politics. It is the fear of
[42:43] everything, and all of that, in my
[42:45] opinion, behind it is AI.
[42:48] Um does this fit his decision to
[42:50] possibly use Deep Seek?
[42:53] So, this is back to Satya. Yes, it fits
[42:55] extremely well.
[42:56] This approach avoids commoditizing
[42:58] knowledge or hollowing out value to a
[42:59] few providers. Instead, it distributes
[43:01] capability across the ecosystem, keeps
[43:03] Microsoft in control of the
[43:04] orchestration and data loops, and aligns
[43:06] with Nadella's earlier praise for Deep
[43:08] Seek. So, again, you're starting to get
[43:10] even the biggest, most sophisticated AI
[43:13] companies complaining about the token
[43:15] costs, and then thinking about using
[43:17] open source models for a variety of
[43:18] different reasons, but in particular,
[43:21] it involves owning it.
[43:24] Um here's the token index. It's still
[43:26] not going higher, and again,
[43:28] this has a lot of things going on it,
[43:30] but one of the things is more usage from
[43:33] Chinese models relative to US models.
[43:35] So, cheaper models. That's the way you
[43:36] get things to go down is that you're
[43:38] having higher growth in the cheap stuff
[43:40] versus the expensive stuff. So, we've
[43:42] seen a turn. The question is, will this
[43:44] translate? I think the earnings period
[43:46] for Q2
[43:47] could be a bigger risk than what
[43:48] happened in Q1, and I would be very,
[43:50] very wary again of the hyperscalers at
[43:52] this point. Microsoft also walked away
[43:55] from a $3 billion deal to lease Oracle
[43:57] cloud capacity over security concerns. I
[43:59] think all of these stories are just very
[44:01] critical into where we are.
[44:04] Um we're not at the same place we were
[44:05] in January 1, guys. so the the thematic
[44:08] portfolio is supposed to be diversified.
[44:10] It's supposed to be diversified because
[44:12] if the agency side picks up, but the
[44:14] data center side slows down, what does
[44:17] that mean? It is not good for the
[44:18] hyperscalers, which is the short side.
[44:20] If you guys want to do
[44:22] relative value trades, I I still believe
[44:25] the thematic portfolio relative to this.
[44:27] The agency side getting for the final
[44:29] part here,
[44:31] again,
[44:33] this is why the paywall was set up. It
[44:35] was for all three of those things. It
[44:37] was to keep you away from the noise
[44:40] by doing this every week and at least
[44:41] giving you the other side with a lot of
[44:43] facts. The second was the alpha, giving
[44:46] you the names where you can make money,
[44:47] whether you're a trader or whether
[44:48] you're a PM.
[44:50] At the same time, the signal was to help
[44:52] you specifically be able to use AI and
[44:55] figure out your own ways to make your
[44:57] business better. If you haven't done
[44:58] this yet, again, I put this out on
[45:00] YouTube. It's completely open to
[45:02] everyone. If you haven't started yet,
[45:05] how do I start? Start with that.
[45:07] Then go to the paywall, get the
[45:09] knowledge brain, build this.
[45:12] It will take 30 to 45 minutes with any
[45:17] computer knowledge. If you just upload
[45:19] the sheet into an LLM and say guide me
[45:21] to be able to do this, it will do it.
[45:23] And then if you run into a stumbling
[45:25] block,
[45:26] take a snapshot of the picture, put it
[45:28] into the LLM. Remember, it's visual.
[45:30] That whole process of being able to get
[45:32] this running, I'm telling you, you will
[45:33] learn more doing that than any class
[45:36] will do it.
[45:37] One thing someone did, and I'm sharing
[45:40] it with you guys cuz this is a
[45:41] crowdsourcing thing, they took all of
[45:43] these weekly video podcasts. So, these
[45:45] go on the paywall every single week. It
[45:47] is every podcast. So, this week I showed
[45:50] three podcasts on here that I thought
[45:51] were worthy with information for you
[45:53] guys to listen to. If you just go have
[45:56] the brain go out and say, "I want you to
[45:58] create going out and getting all the
[46:00] transcripts from everyone that Jordy has
[46:02] put. Just upload all of those files into
[46:05] one folder. Have it go out. You can
[46:07] create a brain on just those and get the
[46:08] information from it. Trust me, that kind
[46:11] of stuff will work. Um I did do
[46:13] something here that I uploaded. I
[46:16] created a
[46:17] so you guys can see it. A weekly focus
[46:19] lit uh list prompt for a pullback
[46:23] hunter. So, for you traders or any of
[46:26] you PMs looking for entry points on
[46:28] things during these consolidations or
[46:30] during these pullbacks, I put together a
[46:32] prompt, which is here, so that you can
[46:35] run it on
[46:37] the files that I give you every week.
[46:38] So, the exhaustion file, the hedge fund
[46:41] file, the technical sheet. You can go
[46:43] through here and just go through it and
[46:46] come up with the 20 names. So,
[46:49] this is the way that it comes up with a
[46:51] response and it will give you the
[46:53] details and give you a name by name. So,
[46:55] all you got to do is go take that prompt
[46:57] that I uploaded that I just showed you
[46:59] guys. Go have it run. It will give you
[47:01] an output like that in Claude co-work.
[47:05] Um and here's the prompt. So, basically
[47:07] you can see it's taking the technical
[47:09] sheet, the fundamental sheet, the
[47:11] scores. These are all the workbooks. The
[47:13] workbooks just mean the folder that
[47:15] you've put down into there. You can put
[47:18] all three of them into one folder. And
[47:20] then just go do it.
[47:22] Doesn't have to be everyone in history.
[47:23] Just has to be the last three.
[47:26] There's also this week a consolidation
[47:28] playbook going on. I'm going to do this
[47:30] once a month. This is the way I used to
[47:31] look within some of my portfolio to find
[47:33] names that I wanted to either increase,
[47:36] decrease
[47:37] after a consolidation. So, this is meant
[47:39] to show you names that have
[47:40] consolidated, but technically they've
[47:42] stayed structurally good. So, it has all
[47:45] 100 names. You can go through it, but
[47:47] basically it's going to go through the
[47:49] percentage relative to the 50-day, the
[47:51] 60
[47:52] day percentile. So, what percentile of
[47:55] this range over the course of the last
[47:58] 60 days is that in. There's a whole
[47:59] bunch of things in there. You will see
[48:01] it. Um, I put this out this week. It
[48:04] went up, I believe, on Thursday uh at
[48:06] the end of the day. The Vera Rubin 800
[48:08] volt, this has been a big theme. I've
[48:10] been asked by a lot of people. This is
[48:11] the introductory paper. This paper goes
[48:14] through so you can read about it and
[48:15] understand the importance of Vera Rubin
[48:17] and what this means. There are other
[48:19] names. Uh,
[48:21] I had this my system run for 40 names.
[48:25] Of the 40, 26 are not
[48:28] part of my current portfolio. I'm going
[48:30] to whittle that down, as well, and I'm
[48:31] going to try to find the ones that have
[48:33] the highest percent, and then I'll
[48:36] release it this week.
[48:38] Uh, again, this is the thematic
[48:40] portfolio. This is the end result.
[48:42] That's a bull market. This, for everyone
[48:45] waiting, and I'm waiting, too, uh this
[48:48] is a bear market.
[48:50] So, let's go back.
[48:52] The thematic portfolio in AI right now
[48:54] is a bull market.
[48:56] And really, when did it start in a big
[48:58] way? It was after this
[49:00] pullback here. It just took off, but
[49:02] this here,
[49:03] and on the flip side now, you've got
[49:05] Bitcoin, which cannot get any single
[49:08] movement whatsoever.
[49:10] This is basically the agentic world
[49:12] taking off here. There is no enthusiasm.
[49:14] I do not care about putting more money
[49:17] into something that is below the
[49:19] 200-day, that fails at every step. We
[49:21] failed again at this thing. Until we get
[49:23] positive momentum, I don't care. Since
[49:26] I've said it before, I think this
[49:29] this the next move is the big one.
[49:32] I could be wrong, but I'm not getting in
[49:34] until we break above the 200-day moving
[49:36] average. Uh, that's it for this week,
[49:38] guys. Uh, I will see you uh next week.
[49:42] Uh,
[49:43] I might be in New York to do the last
[49:45] one, but I think I'll be in Maine, so
[49:47] I'll see you from Maine.