# S&P to 9500 before Biggest Financial Crisis in History with David Hunter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktivEqSyOJY
Translation: zh-TW

[00:00] Yeah, if anything, I'm more bullish than ever.
  是的，如果说有什么的话，我比以往任何时候都更加看涨。

[00:02] Um, I did raise targets back in uh October in my my fourth quarter letter um to uh 9500 on the S&P.
  嗯，我在十月份的第四季度信中将目标提高到了标准普尔指数的 9500 点。

[00:09] So, I was far above the street already.
  所以，我已经远远高于市场普遍预期了。

[00:14] And, you know, my work just says it's it's going even higher.
  而且，你知道，我的分析表明它还会更高。

[00:18] So, you're looking at, you know, a very unusual, maybe unprecedented rally.
  所以，你看到的是，你知道，一个非常不寻常的，也许是前所未有的反弹。

[00:24] It's the end of what I keep saying, it's the end of a 43year secular bull market.
  这是我一直所说的，一个 43 年的长期牛市的结束。

[00:29] Um, and at the end you usually get some, you know, some fireworks and that's what I'm expecting.
  嗯，在结束时你通常会得到一些，你知道，一些烟火，而这正是我所期望的。

[00:41] Hey everyone and welcome to another episode of the What the Finance podcast.
  大家好，欢迎收听另一期《What the Finance》播客。

[00:44] On this episode, I have the pleasure of welcoming back the one and only David Hunter.
  在本期节目中，我很荣幸地欢迎大卫·亨特再次做客。

[00:47] David is the chief macro strategist of Contrarian Macro Advisor and one of the few people who's been bullish over the past few years and has been very correct even though people have doubted him.
  大卫是 Contrarian Macro Advisor 的首席宏观策略师，也是过去几年里少数几个看涨并且非常准确的人之一，尽管人们曾怀疑他。

[00:55] So David, thanks so much for coming back on the podcast.
  所以大卫，非常感谢你再次来到播客。

[00:57] >> Yeah, hi Anthony. Great to see you.
  >> 是的，嗨安东尼。很高兴见到你。

[01:01] Yeah, hi Anthony.
  是的，你好安东尼。

[01:02] Great to see you.
  很高兴见到你。

[01:02] Yeah, looking forward forward to the conversation.
  是的，期待这次谈话。

[01:04] As I said, you've uh sort of been very bullish the past few years
  正如我所说，在过去的几年里，你一直非常看好。

[01:05] and uh it's been correct and you keep raising your prices uh your price targets and they keep getting hit.
  而且它一直被证明是正确的，你不断提高你的价格，你的价格目标，它们也一直在被实现。

[01:10] So really interested to hear, you know, what are you currently seeing and what has changed over the last six months.
  所以，我真的很有兴趣听听，你知道，你现在看到了什么，以及在过去六个月里发生了什么变化。

[01:15] Yeah, if anything, I'm more bullish than ever.
  是的，如果说有什么不同的话，我比以往任何时候都更加看好。

[01:17] Um, I did raise targets back in uh October in my my fourth quarter letter um to uh 9500 on the S&P.
  嗯，我在十月份的第四季度信函中确实提高了目标，将标准普尔指数定在 9500 点。

[01:23] So, I was far above the street already.
  所以，我已经远远高于市场普遍预期了。

[01:28] And you know, my work just says it's going even higher.
  而且你知道，我的分析表明它还会更高。

[01:31] Um yeah, as you remember, I I raised it um when we got hit in April with the the tariff news and the market dropped 20%.
  嗯，是的，你还记得，四月份当我们受到关税消息的打击，市场下跌 20% 时，我提高了它。

[01:38] uh sentiment got so negative I went from 8,000 to 8700 uh and now have increased it again from 8700 to 9500
  嗯，情绪变得如此消极，我从 8000 点升至 8700 点，现在又从 8700 点升至 9500 点。

[01:49] and I think it's you know it's going to be a first part of next year story
  而且我认为你知道，这将是明年初的故事。

[01:52] uh we'll probably have a pretty healthy um year-end rally uh but
  嗯，我们可能会有一个相当健康的年底反弹，但

[02:01] pretty healthy um year-end rally uh but uh I'm I'm thinking right now I I tend uh I'm I'm thinking right now I I tend to focus on on obviously the bigger picture but right now I think there's a setup there where we could have um you know 3 or 4% % um pullback here to retest um the the lows of a couple weeks ago.
  相當健康的年終反彈，但我想我傾向於關注更大的圖景，但現在我認為有一個設定，我們可能會在這裡回調3%或4%，以重新測試幾週前低點。

[02:18] Um so we're we're close to where I kind of targeted maybe a week ago that we could rally to and then have a pullback.
  所以我們接近我一週前可能設定的目標，我們可以反彈然後回調。

[02:26] I don't expect a full retest where we go back to the lows, you know, of then, but we we could see three or 4% down in the the um indexes and then and then I think it's off to the races.
  我不期望會完全回測到低點，但我們可能會看到指數下跌3%或4%，然後我認為就會開始飆升。

[02:41] So probably from you know somewhere mid mid December to the end of December should be um uh you know a typical year end rally u probably a strong one um and then carry right into um the the new year.
  所以，從12月中旬到12月底，應該是一個典型的年終反彈，可能是一個強勁的反彈，然後一直持續到新年。

[02:56] So I think first quarter will be very strong quarter for stocks. You know
  所以我認為第一季度對股票來說將會是非常強勁的一個季度。

[03:02] very strong quarter for stocks.
  非常强劲的股票季度。

[03:03] You know obviously I don't know exactly when we're going to hit that target.
  你知道，很明显，我不知道我们何时会达到那个目标。

[03:05] from here it's it's over 40%.
  从这里开始，已经超过 40%。

[03:08] And from the correction lows of you know the pullback lows of maybe a week from now it's going to be more than that.
  而且从修正低点，你知道，从大约一周前的回调低点开始，将超过这个数。

[03:15] So um you know it's a it's a hefty run could happen in you know as I say the last part of this run is going to be parabolic.
  所以，嗯，你知道，这是一次大幅上涨，可能发生在，你知道，正如我所说，这次上涨的最后一部分将是抛物线的。

[03:21] So it could happen in a matter of just you know two or three months or it might take a little more than that.
  所以它可能在短短的，你知道，两三个月内发生，或者可能需要更长一点的时间。

[03:27] But but either way I think um you know first part of next year is going to be very strong.
  但无论如何，我认为，嗯，你知道，明年的第一部分将非常强劲。

[03:32] Same thing with the NASDAQ.
  纳斯达克也是如此。

[03:34] I'm, you know, I raised my target there from uh 30,000 to 32,000.
  我，你知道，我把那里的目标从 30,000 提高到 32,000。

[03:40] Uh raised my target on the Dow from 60,000 to 65,000 and on the Russell, which I think is going to lead the way in this last run to the top.
  呃，我把道琼斯指数的目标从 60,000 提高到 65,000，还有罗素指数，我认为它将引领这次最后一次上涨到顶峰。

[03:49] Um I raised my target from I think 3,400 to 3,800.
  嗯，我把目标从我认为的 3,400 提高到 3,800。

[03:54] Uh which is well over 50% from here, I think.
  呃，我认为这比这里高了 50% 以上。

[03:58] So, so you're looking at, you know, a very
  所以，所以你看到的是，你知道，一个非常

[04:04] you're looking at, you know, a very unusual, maybe unprecedented rally.
  你看到的是，你知道，一個非常不尋常，也許是前所未有的集會。

[04:08] It's unusual, maybe unprecedented rally.
  這是一個不尋常的，也許是前所未有的集會。

[04:10] It's the end of what I keep saying, it's the end of a 43year secular bull market.
  這是我一直說的結束，這是一個43年長期牛市的結束。

[04:13] Um, end of a 43year secular bull market.
  嗯，一個43年長期牛市的結束。

[04:15] Um, and at the end, you usually get some, you know, some fireworks, and that's what I'm expecting.
  嗯，在結束時，你通常會得到一些，你知道，一些煙火，這就是我所期望的。

[04:21] So, um, people kind of look at those numbers and go, "The economy is slowing.
  所以，嗯，人們有點看著那些數字然後說，“經濟正在放緩。

[04:25] You know, rates are sticky, inflation's sticky.
  你知道，利率很頑固，通脹也很頑固。

[04:28] How can you be so bullish?", Well, I expect over the course of the, you know, next several months, uh, for rates to come down and come down quite nicely, uh, for inflation to continue to trend lower, um, for the economy to hang in there long enough to, you know, make it look like there's no recession coming, um, or at least, you know, any anything's going to be a soft landing.
  你怎麼能如此看漲？”嗯，我預計在接下來的幾個月裡，你知道，利率會下降，而且會相當不錯地下降，嗯，通貨膨脹會繼續走低，嗯，經濟會堅持足夠長的時間，你知道，讓它看起來沒有衰退即將到來，嗯，或者至少，你知道，任何事情都會是一個軟著陸。

[04:50] That's not my view for later next year, but it is.
  這不是我對明年晚些時候的看法，但事實確實如此。

[04:55] I think it will be the picture for the next few months.
  我認為這將是未來幾個月的景象。

[04:59] So, I think there's plenty of room for for um investors to to kind of abandon their skepticism.
  所以，我認為有足夠的空間讓嗯投資者放棄他們的懷疑態度。

[05:04] They've been
  他們一直以來

[05:07] abandon their skepticism.
  放棄他們的懷疑。

[05:07] They've been um fighting this thing for three years,
  他們已經 um 為這件事奮鬥了三年，

[05:10] um fighting this thing for three years, three and a half years.
  um 為這件事奮鬥了三年，三年半。

[05:14] And um you know, three and a half years.
  而且 um 你知道，三年半。

[05:14] And um you know, they obviously they're invested, but
  而且 um 你知道，他們顯然有投資，但是

[05:16] they obviously they're invested, but they're cautiously invested or
  他們顯然有投資，但是他們是謹慎投資或

[05:17] they're cautiously invested or skeptically invested.
  他們是謹慎投資或懷疑地投資。

[05:20] And even now you skeptically invested.
  即使現在你懷疑地投資。

[05:20] And even now you you hear people talking about how much
  而且即使現在你聽到人們談論還有多少

[05:22] you hear people talking about how much more can it go?
  聽到人們談論還有多少可以漲？

[05:23] It's, you know, valuations are high, earnings, although
  它是，你知道，估值很高，收益，儘管

[05:26] valuations are high, earnings, although earnings might be better next year,
  估值很高，收益，儘管明年的收益可能會更好，

[05:28] earnings might be better next year, multiples are at kind of the historic
  明年的收益可能會更好，市盈率處於歷史的

[05:30] multiples are at kind of the historic highs.
  市盈率處於歷史的高位。

[05:32] So there's there's still highs.
  所以還有還有高位。

[05:32] So there's there's still skepticism
  所以還有還有懷疑

[05:34] skepticism in the market.
  市場上的懷疑。

[05:34] Um, and uh that is what I
  嗯，而且呃這就是我

[05:39] in the market. Um, and uh that is what I call the the fuel for the final advance,
  在市場上。嗯，而且呃這就是我所說的最後一次上漲的燃料，

[05:41] call the the fuel for the final advance, you know, the wall of worry that I think
  稱之為最後一次上漲的燃料，你知道，我認為的擔憂之牆

[05:43] you know, the wall of worry that I think will keep keep fueling this thing.
  你知道，擔憂之牆我認為將繼續為這件事提供動力。

[05:46] will keep keep fueling this thing.
  將繼續為這件事提供動力。

[05:46] So I'm bullish for sure.
  所以我肯定看漲。

[05:49] So I'm bullish for sure. And uh like I
  所以我肯定看漲。而且呃就像我

[05:49] I'm bullish for sure. And uh like I said, the next, you know, week or so uh
  我肯定看漲。而且呃就像我說的，接下來，你知道，一週左右呃

[05:52] said, the next, you know, week or so uh could could have us go the other way and
  說的，接下來，你知道，一週左右呃可能會讓我們走向另一方面，然後

[05:54] could could have us go the other way and people get even more bearish.
  可能會讓我們走向另一方面，人們會變得更加看跌。

[05:57] people get even more bearish.
  人們會變得更加看跌。

[05:57] Um but it's, you know, it's just a pullback.
  嗯，但是它是，你知道，它只是一個回調。

[05:59] Um but it's, you know, it's just a pullback.
  嗯，但是它是，你知道，它只是一個回調。

[05:59] It's it's not a full retest in my
  它它不是一個完全的回測在我

[06:01] It's it's not a full retest in my opinion.
  它它不是一個完全的回測在我看來。

[06:04] opinion. Um and I think it's an
  看來。嗯，我認為這是一個

[06:04] Um and I think it's an opportunity to get on board if you
  嗯，我認為這是一個機會，如果你

[06:06] opportunity to get on board if you aren't already on board.
  機會，如果你還沒有上車的話。

[06:08] aren't already on board.
  尚未加入。

[06:09] Yeah, really interesting.
  是的，真的很有趣。

[06:09] Thanks for laying that out.
  谢谢你把它讲清楚。

[06:10] So you've been as you mentioned you've been very bullish the past few years and I think every time you've had to sort of increase your uh price target you've had to go uh you know you you assume there's going to be there there is going to be this sort of blowoff to off and blow up blowoff top and then from there we're going to see quite a big crash.
  所以你一直，正如你提到的，在过去的几年里你一直非常看涨，而且我认为每次你不得不提高你的目标价时，你都不得不假设将会有一个爆发式的顶部，然后从那里我们将看到一次大崩盘。

[06:25] Could we just continue to sort of slowly float up as we are well not slowly but continue to float up in the in trajectory that we're going at the moment?
  我们能否继续缓慢地上涨，或者说不是缓慢地，而是继续按照我们目前的发展轨迹上涨？

[06:33] Do we need that blow up blowoff top?
  我们需要那个爆发式的顶部吗？

[06:35] Uh do we need that crash?
  呃，我们需要那次崩盘吗？

[06:37] Can we just continue to keep going?
  我们能继续前进吗？

[06:38] Yeah, I don't think anything is is necessarily needed.
  是的，我认为没有什么necessarily是必需的。

[06:40] Um it just all my you know analysis from both fundamental and technical macro sentiment um and cross markets they just all argue that we are late in this game and that the final move is going to be a strong one.
  嗯，只是我所有的基本面、技术面、宏观情绪以及跨市场分析都表明，我们在这个游戏的后期了，而最后的举动将会是强劲的。

[06:58] Um as I say to people because people want to put deadlines on this you I go there's no deadlines in the market.
  嗯，正如我告诉人们的，因为人们想给这个设定最后期限，我说市场上没有最后期限。

[07:00] if it wants to keep going.
  如果它想继续下去。

[07:02] Uh, you know, I get accused of pushing my timelines out.
  呃，你知道，我被指责推迟我的时间表。

[07:09] get accused of pushing my timelines out.
  被指控推迟我的时间表。

[07:09] I don't have a specific timeline.
  我没有具体的时间表。

[07:12] I I don't have a specific timeline.
  我我没有具体的时间表。

[07:12] I I do, uh, you know, give guesstimates of what how long this might take to get there because I do expect the the final move to be parabolic.
  我我确实，呃，你知道，会给出关于这可能需要多长时间才能到达那里的估算，因为我确实预计最终的走势将是抛物线的。

[07:21] So parabolic means it's, you know, a lot of a lot of ground gets covered in a very short while.
  所以抛物线意味着，你知道，在很短的时间内会覆盖很多很多区域。

[07:26] So that's how I can look and say 40% could be covered in or 40 or 50% could be covered in three or four months.
  所以这就是我为什么可以说 40% 可以在三个或四个月内完成，或者 40% 或 50% 可以在三个或四个月内完成。

[07:34] That's not normal.
  这不正常。

[07:34] Normally that's three or four years worth of coverage.
  通常那是三到四年的覆盖范围。

[07:39] But it's where we are in the big cycle that is why I say that and it's also you know my analysis just points to that.
  但这是我们所处的周期，这就是我为什么这么说，而且你知道，我的分析也指向这一点。

[07:46] A lot of technicals point to that.
  很多技术指标也指向这一点。

[07:46] So um but there is no magic to you know there's no timeline where all of a sudden you you know the clock strikes midnight and you turn into a pumpkin or the market has to crash.
  所以，嗯，但你知道，没有魔法，没有一个时间表，突然之间你知道午夜钟声敲响，你就会变成南瓜，或者市场就必须崩溃。

[07:59] Um so if it wants you know if people want to stay skeptical and the economy continues to kind of plow along it can it can stretch out.
  嗯，所以如果它想要，你知道，如果人们想保持怀疑态度，而经济继续一往无前，它可以，它可以延长。

[08:07] Um so people
  嗯，所以人们

[08:11] it can it can stretch out.
  它可以，它可以拉长。

[08:12] Um so people need to understand that when you're a macro strategist you're not making a trading call.
  嗯，所以人们需要明白，当你是一名宏观策略师时，你并不是在做一个交易决策。

[08:14] You're not saying this is what's going to happen in the next.
  你不是在说接下来会发生什么。

[08:18] You're just kind of uh putting out the big picture and then giving some kind of an assumption of what you know what that might look like, not what it will look like in terms of time frame.
  你只是在描绘大局，然后给出一些关于它可能是什么样子的假设，而不是它在时间框架上会是什么样子。

[08:26] Um so yeah, could could other things happen here that stretch it out?
  嗯，所以是的，这里会发生其他事情来拉长它吗？

[08:32] Could you have a longer consolidation that gives it more more room to run after that consolidation?
  你是否可以有一个更长的盘整期，让它在盘整期之后有更多的空间来运行？

[08:38] Sure. I don't think that's likely.
  当然。我不认为那很可能。

[08:41] all you know the technicals certainly point in my opinion to this quick pullback and then you know off to the races and I think once we get off to the races it may be straight to the top you know that that doesn't mean you can't have you know two or three% pullbacks along the way because you can get those anytime but uh pretty much you know no big consolidations I think after this this pullback uh is my guess again things can can change that But um I just
  所有你知道的，在我看来，技术指标肯定指向这次快速回调，然后你知道，一路飙升，我认为一旦我们一路飙升，它可能会直冲顶峰，你知道，这并不意味着你不能有你知道的沿途两三个百分点的回调，因为你随时都可能遇到那些，但嗯，基本上你知道，我认为在这次回调之后不会有大的盘整，这是我的猜测，再次说明，事情可能会改变，但是嗯，我只是

[09:14] things can can change that But um I just too many people
  事情可以改变，但嗯，我只是觉得太多人

[09:16] too many people want to just look at the market and say
  太多人想看看市场然后说

[09:18] want to just look at the market and say it's it's high so I'm I'm skeptical you
  想看看市场然后说它很高，所以我很怀疑你

[09:20] it's it's high so I'm I'm skeptical you know I'm bearish and I just right now
  它很高，所以我很怀疑，你知道，我是看跌的，我现在

[09:24] know I'm bearish and I just right now that's not the picture. Of course I am
  知道我是看跌的，我现在，那不是画面。当然我是

[09:27] that's not the picture. Of course I am you know my as you say the other side of
  那不是画面。当然我是，你知道我的，就像你说的，另一边的

[09:31] you know my as you say the other side of the mountain my my call is for an 80%
  你知道我的，就像你说的，山的另一边，我的我的预测是80%

[09:34] the mountain my my call is for an 80% bare market. So I do see trouble on the
  山，我的我的预测是80%的熊市。所以我确实看到了麻烦在

[09:36] bare market. So I do see trouble on the horizon. I just don't think we're there
  熊市。所以我确实看到了地平线上的麻烦。我只是不认为我们到了

[09:38] horizon. I just don't think we're there yet.
  地平线。我只是不认为我们已经到了。

[09:39] yet. >> Yeah. Okay. Interesting. and you know
  了。>> 是的。好的。有意思。而且你知道

[09:41] >> Yeah. Okay. Interesting. and you know golds and I guess precious metals are
  >> 是的。好的。有意思。而且你知道黄金和我想贵金属是

[09:43] golds and I guess precious metals are other other assets that have performed
  黄金和我想贵金属是其他其他表现良好的资产

[09:45] other other assets that have performed very well over this especially the you
  其他其他表现非常好的资产，尤其是在你

[09:47] very well over this especially the you know past six months or so this year. Um
  非常好的表现，尤其是在你，你知道的，过去六个月左右，今年。嗯

[09:50] know past six months or so this year. Um what what do you see there? Do you think
  知道的，过去六个月左右，今年。嗯，你看到了什么？你认为

[09:51] what what do you see there? Do you think they can continue to to run as they
  你看到了什么？你认为它们可以像它们那样继续运行吗？

[09:52] they can continue to to run as they have?
  它们可以像它们那样继续运行吗？

[09:53] have? >> Yeah, I think gold and particular and
  有？>> 是的，我认为黄金，特别是和

[09:56] >> Yeah, I think gold and particular and particularly silver look excellent here.
  >> 是的，我认为黄金，特别是和特别是白银在这里看起来很棒。

[09:59] particularly silver look excellent here. Uh I am as bullish as I am on equities,
  特别是白银看起来很棒。呃，我和对股票一样看涨，

[10:02] Uh I am as bullish as I am on equities, I'm more bullish on on the metals or
  呃，我和对股票一样看涨，我对金属更看涨，或者

[10:04] I'm more bullish on on the metals or certainly on silver. Silver to me is
  我对金属或者说对白银肯定更看涨。对我来说，白银

[10:07] certainly on silver. Silver to me is just breaking out. You know, it went to
  肯定是对白银。对我来说，白银正在突破。你知道，它去到了

[10:08] just breaking out. You know, it went to all-time new highs. uh in the last month
  正在突破。你知道，它在过去一个月创下了历史新高。呃

[10:12] all-time new highs. uh in the last month and um consolidated those highs and now
  历史新高。呃，在过去一个月，嗯，巩固了那些高点，现在

[10:16] and um consolidated those highs and now looks like it's ready to run.
  並鞏固了這些高點，現在看起來它已準備好運行。

[10:19] the miners looks like it's ready to run.
  礦業股看起來已準備好運行。

[10:19] the miners same thing um in terms of consolidation
  礦業股也是如此，就盤整而言

[10:22] same thing um in terms of consolidation that I think that consolidation there's always a chance here in the next week 10
  就盤整而言也是如此，我認為盤整在這裡的未來一週到十天內總是有機會

[10:27] always a chance here in the next week 10 days that um you know if if there's something out there that's going to cause the pullback in the equities it
  在這裡的未來一週到十天內總是有機會，你知道，如果外面有什麼東西會導致股票回調，它

[10:32] something out there that's going to cause the pullback in the equities it could also uh have have the miners sell off here or metals and minor sell off uh
  外面有什麼東西會導致股票回調，它也可能導致礦業股在這裡或金屬和礦業股在這裡下跌

[10:41] off here or metals and minor sell off uh but it's that one's not as clear I think
  在這裡或金屬和礦業股在這裡下跌，但那一個不像我認為的那麼清晰

[10:43] but it's that one's not as clear I think the equity market even though that setup doesn't have to happen it's pretty clear
  但那一個不像我認為的那麼清晰，我認為股票市場即使這種情況不必發生，它也很清楚

[10:47] doesn't have to happen it's pretty clear it might But, uh, silver, silver certainly here could just keep going
  不必發生，它很清楚，但它可能會。但是，呃，白銀，白銀在這裡肯定可以繼續走高

[10:51] certainly here could just keep going here.
  在這裡肯定可以繼續走高。

[10:51] It's, it could be a rocket ship here in the next few months.
  它，它在未來幾個月內可能是一艘火箭。

[10:56] So, um, you know, my target on silver was raised in that same fourth quarter letter from uh, $75 to 100.
  所以，嗯，你知道，我在同一份第四季度信函中將白銀的目標價從呃，75美元提高到100美元。

[11:06] Um, and I think we'll be there certainly in could be in the next uh, four, five, six months.
  嗯，我認為我們肯定會在未來呃，四、五、六個月內到達那裡。

[11:09] Um, and gold I raised from, um, I think I was at 4,000, raised it to
  嗯，黃金我從，嗯，我認為我當時是4000，提高到

[11:18] Um, I think I was at 4,000, raised it to 5,000.
  嗯，我想我当时是4000，提高到了5000。

[11:22] Um, I don't remember exactly when I did that, but um, that one, um, you know, I think is conservative.
  嗯，我不记得我具体什么时候做的，但是嗯，那个，嗯，你知道，我认为是保守的。

[11:27] It could push right through 5,000 given where it is.
  考虑到它目前的情况，它可以轻松突破5000。

[11:31] So, both the metals look really good.
  所以，这两种金属看起来都非常好。

[11:34] U, the miners look look really good.
  嗯，矿业股看起来真的很好。

[11:37] Uh I raised targets on some of my silver and gold um um ETFs, you know, the minor ETFs.
  呃，我提高了我的白银和黄金嗯嗯ETF的一些目标，你知道，就是矿业ETF。

[11:43] So, uh I use those just to kind of give a a target for the miners.
  所以，呃，我用它们来为矿业股设定一个目标。

[11:48] Um my GDX target was raised from um 75 to 120.
  嗯，我的GDX目标从嗯75提高到了120。

[11:57] Um my GDXJ which is Junior Miners ETF was raised from um 100 to 170.
  嗯，我的GDXJ，也就是小型矿业ETF，从嗯100提高到了170。

[12:04] Uh my uh SIL is the large cap silver miners I raised that from 75 to 150.
  呃，我的嗯SIL是大型白银矿业股，我把它从75提高到了150。

[12:14] My junior miners SILJ I raise my target from 35 to 60.
  我的小型矿业股SILJ，我把目标从35提高到了60。

[12:18] So you can and and
  所以你可以，而且而且

[12:22] target from 35 to 60.
  目标在 35 到 60 之间。

[12:22] So you can and and like I said those are pre-bust targets.
  所以你可以，而且正如我所说，那些是预先崩盘的目标。

[12:24] like I said those are pre-bust targets.
  正如我所说，那些是预先崩盘的目标。

[12:24] I'm calling for a bust later next year.
  我预计明年晚些时候会崩盘。

[12:27] I'm calling for a bust later next year.
  我预计明年晚些时候会崩盘。

[12:27] um sometime next year.
  嗯，明年某个时候。

[12:30] But but prior to that, I expect those targets to re be reached.
  但在那之前，我预计这些目标将再次实现。

[12:32] So, you know, you look at the numbers on those, do the calculus on those, and you you see that there's there's an awful lot of upside if I'm right.
  所以，你知道，你看那些数字，做一下计算，你会发现如果我没错的话，有很大的上涨空间。

[12:38] Um so, I think we're in the sweet spot for the miners.
  嗯，所以，我认为我们正处于矿业公司的有利时机。

[12:43] You know, obviously the metal price moves up and the miners make more money.
  你知道，显然金属价格上涨，矿业公司就能赚更多钱。

[12:48] Uh that's where we're at.
  嗯，这就是我们现在的情况。

[12:50] and and surprisingly um institutions are just beginning to warm up to the precious metals.
  而且令人惊讶的是，机构投资者才刚刚开始关注贵金属。

[12:55] Uh you know they may have some gold, they have absolutely no silver.
  嗯，你知道他们可能持有黄金，但完全不持有白银。

[12:59] Uh and that's just happening now where they're starting to notice the performance and say well we maybe maybe need to have a little bit of that in there.
  嗯，现在这种情况才刚刚开始，他们开始注意到表现，并说我们也许需要持有其中的一部分。

[13:04] So whether it be the metals or the miners, um the institutions really haven't been uh big participants and I think that could be part of the the impetus for those big moves.
  所以，无论是金属还是矿业公司，嗯，机构投资者一直都不是主要参与者，我认为这可能是那些大幅上涨的动力之一。

[13:23] impetus for those big moves.
  這些重大舉動的動力。

[13:24] Yeah.
  是的。

[13:27] And it's sort of a you know it's basically been a 10-minute uh sorry 10 not 10-minute 10year uh sort of bare market for many of these miners or not bare market or just sort of a a range without breaking out and they finally broken out.
  而且可以說，你知道，這基本上是10分鐘呃抱歉10不是10分鐘10年呃一種熊市，對許多礦工來說，或者不是熊市，只是徘徊在一個沒有突破的區間，他們終於突破了。

[13:38] I imagine that mean >> they had they had huge moves in the first decade of this century.
  我想那意味著>>他們在本世紀的頭十年裡有巨大的變動。

[13:43] you know, back um particularly between 2009 and 2011, they had big spikes um both gold and silver miners.
  你知道，回溯，嗯，特別是在2009年到2011年之間，他們有很大的波動，嗯，黃金和白銀礦工都有。

[13:53] And then they, you know, they went through a long consolidation that lasted several years, started picking up um back um in maybe 2016,
  然後他們，你知道，經歷了一個持續數年的長期盤整，開始回升，嗯，大約在2016年左右，

[14:03] but but you know, were frustrating to investors because they'd start to go, particularly the silver miners, and then they they'd give it back.
  但是，但是你知道，讓投資者感到沮喪，因為他們開始上漲，特別是白銀礦工，然後他們又回吐了。

[14:13] And so people kind of got frustrated with the managements of the miners.
  所以人們對礦工的管理層有點感到沮喪。

[14:17] uh they tended to just when things got good they went out and raised capital you know diluted their stock um and you know
  呃，他們傾向於，當事情順利時，他們就出去籌集資金，你知道稀釋了他們的股票，嗯，你知道

[14:25] diluted their stock um and you know failed to deliver on things people had expectations and that wouldn't meet expectations or uh would underperform.
  稀释了他们的股票，嗯，你知道，未能兑现人们的期望，而且不会满足期望，或者嗯，表现不佳。

[14:33] So it it was a long slog and only really in the last couple of years have they um gotten going.
  所以这是一个漫长的过程，直到最近几年他们才真正开始有所作为。

[14:39] gold the gold the gold miners first and the silver m miners more of late but um there is really so much there to like and I think yeah I think it's going to be and and this is unlike the equity market which I'm calling this a you know 43year secular bull market top that we're heading into here in the in the equity markets um silver and gold this is a top prior to the bust everything most everything will get hit in the bust.
  首先是黄金，然后是白银矿业，但嗯，真的有很多值得喜欢的地方，而且我认为是的，我认为这将是，而且这与股票市场不同，我称之为，你知道，一个43年的长期牛市顶部，我们正朝着这个方向前进，在股票市场嗯，白银和黄金，这是在崩盘之前的一个顶部，在崩盘中，几乎所有东西都会受到冲击。

[15:11] Um so you know they'll get you could see you know 40 or 50% hits to even the metals and and more in the miners.
  嗯，所以你知道，他们会得到，你可以看到，你知道，即使是金属也会受到40%或50%的打击，而矿业公司则更多。

[15:21] Um but the other side of the bust they will be part of the
  嗯，但在崩盘的另一边，他们将是...

[15:27] the bust they will be part of the leadership that takes um you know the leadership that takes um you know the market the indexes may not get back to market the indexes may not get back to these highs for decades.
  这次萧条，他们将成为领导层的一部分，而领导层将带领……你知道，市场，指数可能无法回到……你知道，市场，指数可能无法回到这些高点几十年了。

[15:32] the highs we see next year um in in the equity markets may not be revisited for decades.
  我们明年看到的这些高点，在股票市场中，可能几十年都不会再出现了。

[15:41] On the other hand, the metals and [snorts] the miners I think will have a a very big um move next cycle.
  另一方面，我认为金属和[鼻哼]矿业公司将在下一周期有非常大的……嗯……增长。

[15:51] So that I'm you know I'm calling for 20,000 gold by sometime in the early 2030s.
  所以，你知道，我预计到2030年代早期，黄金价格将达到20,000。

[15:57] uh 500 silver and a lot of commodities I think will do very well because I think postbust it's going to be a commodity cycle that will lead.
  嗯，500的白银和很多大宗商品我认为都会表现得很好，因为我认为在萧条之后，将是一个由大宗商品周期引领的时代。

[16:07] >> Yeah. Great. And what do you see in the other industries?
  >> 是的。很好。那么您在其他行业看到了什么？

[16:08] I know you know you you cover semiconductors, you cover quite a few other industries.
  我知道您……您覆盖半导体，您还覆盖了其他几个行业。

[16:11] How are you tracking those and what are you seeing?
  您是如何追踪这些的，又看到了什么？

[16:17] >> Yeah, I think the leadership this cycle hasn't changed.
  >> 是的，我认为本周期的领导者没有改变。

[16:19] you know, we're going through a pretty good consolidation in tech right now, particularly the Mag 7, which had been so overowned and popular.
  你知道，我们现在正经历科技行业的相当大的整合，特别是七巨头，它们曾经被过度持有和非常受欢迎。

[16:29] which had been so overowned and popular.
  這已被過度擁有和普及。

[16:30] Um, there's a lot of people saying that's behind us or, you know, and I do think, as I said, the small caps might outperform that into the top.
  嗯，很多人說這已經過去了，或者，你知道，我確實認為，正如我所說，小盤股可能會跑贏大盤股。

[16:39] Um, but I still expect semis to do very well.
  嗯，但我仍然預計半導體表現會很好。

[16:41] I still expect u most of the mag seven to do very well and tech in general to do very well.
  我仍然預計鎂七指數中的大多數表現會很好，科技股總體也會表現很好。

[16:46] AI to you know pick up again.
  人工智能你知道會再次回升。

[16:50] Um so um you know the leadership will not change until we go into the bust and then I think coming out there'll be new leadership next cycle but but I still expect good things for tech and semis.
  嗯，所以嗯，你知道領導層不會改變，直到我們進入蕭條期，然後我認為出來的時候，下一個週期會有新的領導層，但我仍然預計科技股和半導體會有好的表現。

[16:57] Uh I also think financials will play very well in this last run to the top.
  呃，我也認為金融股在這最後的衝高行情中會表現得很好。

[17:08] Um they've they've been a little bit slow here for you know the last month.
  嗯，你知道，它們在過去一個月裡一直有點慢。

[17:14] So people are getting a little bit soured on them.
  所以人們對它們有點失望。

[17:19] I I'll tell you the picture I see is that they are uh putting in very high level consolidations not far off their tops and they're ready to run again once this we have this pullback.
  我會告訴你我看到的景象是，它們正在進行非常高水平的盤整，離頂部不遠，一旦我們經歷了這次回調，它們就準備再次上漲。

[17:28] So um so I think
  所以嗯，所以我想

[17:31] We have this pullback.
  我們有這個回調。

[17:34] So um so I think financials will play industrials will financials will play industrials will continue to play into the top.
  所以嗯所以我想金融股會扮演工業股會扮演工業股會繼續扮演領頭羊的角色。

[17:36] Um I continue to play into the top.
  嗯，我繼續扮演領頭羊的角色。

[17:38] Um I think the basic industry you know think the basic industry you know materials should should do well into the materials should should do well into the top um which includes copper.
  嗯，我認為基礎產業，你知道，認為基礎產業，你知道，原材料應該應該會在原材料應該應該會在頂部表現良好，嗯，其中包括銅。

[17:44] Copper looks very good here, I think.
  我認為銅在這裡看起來非常好。

[17:47] Um, and even even things that are interests that have been hit like housing, I think the homebuilders look like they have one last leg to go.
  嗯，甚至甚至那些受到打擊的行業，比如住房，我認為房屋建築商看起來還有最後一搏的機會。

[17:55] That may be hard for people to understand because they they've disappointed here for, you know, last several months and they look like they're done, but I I think they're they're building a rounding bottom here and I think are going to go on to new highs.
  這對人們來說可能很難理解，因為你知道，在過去幾個月裡，他們在這裡一直令人失望，而且他們看起來已經結束了，但我認為他們正在這裡建立一個圓弧底，我認為他們將會創下新高。

[18:13] It will be driven by lower rates.
  這將由較低的利率所推動。

[18:17] I'm very bullish on the bond market here.
  我對這裡的債券市場非常看好。

[18:19] Um short term I see the potential for you know the setup there for um the 10-year to go from you know where wherever we are now 405 406 um back up
  嗯，短期來看，我看到了潛力，你知道，那裡的設置，嗯，十年期債券將從你知道我們現在的任何地方 405 406 嗯，回升。

[18:32] wherever we are now 405 406 um back up to say 4 and a quarter 430 might even
  无论我们现在在哪里，405 406 嗯，回到说四又四分之一，430 甚至可能

[18:35] to say 4 and a quarter 430 might even get to 435.
  说四又四分之一，430 甚至可能达到 435。

[18:37] get to 435.
  达到 435。

[18:40] So that might be the impetus for um the pullback in in the equity market.
  所以这可能是股市回调的动力。

[18:42] pullback in in the equity market.
  股市回调。

[18:44] You know if the equity market drops 4% it's probably because the bond market's selling off.
  你知道，如果股市下跌 4%，那很可能是因为债市在抛售。

[18:46] probably because the bond market's selling off.
  很可能是因为债市在抛售。

[18:49] Um, so we're, you know, we're we're a week away from a Fed meeting.
  嗯，所以我们，你知道，我们离美联储会议还有一周。

[18:51] Um, and everybody's assuming the Fed's going to cut.
  嗯，每个人都假设美联储会降息。

[18:54] Um, I think that's probably a decent bet right now,
  嗯，我认为现在这可能是一个不错的赌注，

[18:58] that's probably a decent bet right now, but it's always what comes out in terms of Pal's um, post uh, cut um, you know,
  现在这可能是一个不错的赌注，但总是在于鲍威尔的嗯，降息后的嗯，你知道，

[19:03] of Pal's um, post uh, cut um, you know, press conference um, and he could disappoint there or talk about being cautious or whatever.
  鲍威尔的嗯，降息后的嗯，你知道，新闻发布会嗯，他可能会在那里令人失望，或者谈论要谨慎或其他什么。

[19:09] disappoint there or talk about being cautious or whatever.
  令人失望，或者谈论要谨慎或其他什么。

[19:11] So, whatever, you know, or it may be it may be speculation leading up to the to the meeting that causes a selloff and then you get good news at the meeting.
  所以，无论如何，你知道，或者可能是，可能是会议前的猜测导致了抛售，然后你在会议上得到好消息。

[19:17] know, or it may be it may be speculation leading up to the to the meeting that causes a selloff and then you get good news at the meeting.
  你知道，或者可能是，可能是会议前的猜测导致了抛售，然后你在会议上得到好消息。

[19:20] causes a selloff and then you get good news at the meeting.
  导致了抛售，然后你在会议上得到好消息。

[19:22] I'm I'm not really too concerned about what the next, you know, week or 10 days looks like.
  我我不太担心接下来，你知道，一周或十天会是什么样子。

[19:25] news at the meeting.
  会议上的消息。

[19:27] I I think we'll get a pullback one way or
  我认为我们会以某种方式回调，

[19:29] know, week or 10 days looks like.
  你知道，一周或十天会是什么样子。

[19:32] I I think we'll get a pullback one way or
  我认为我们会以某种方式回调，

[19:33] think we'll get a pullback one way or the other probably.
  我认为我们或多或少都会出现回调。

[19:36] But if we don't, we don't.
  但如果我们不这样做，我们就不做。

[19:39] Um but but I am you know once that little uh back up in rates happens if it does happen um I'm very bullish bond market.
  嗯，但是，你知道，一旦利率出现一点点回升，如果真的发生了，我非常看好债券市场。

[19:49] I I see maybe in the first quarter certainly by the second quarter you could see 3% or below on the 10-year and if you get that obviously that will help mortgage rates and it'll be going into a spring selling season.
  我预计可能在第一季度，肯定在第二季度，10年期国债收益率会降至3%或以下，如果你能做到这一点，显然会帮助抵押贷款利率，并且会进入春季销售旺季。

[19:59] So you could get one final harra housing uh not not to new highs for homes themselves, home prices and and activity, but for the homebuilders, they could get, you know, a surge in activity and and run their stocks up.
  所以你可能会得到一次最后的住房热潮，嗯，不是为了房屋本身、房价和活动创下新高，而是为了房屋建筑商，你知道，他们可能会获得活动激增，并推高他们的股票。

[20:16] So I do think, you know, home builders will play here.
  所以我确实认为，你知道，房屋建筑商会在这里发挥作用。

[20:21] Um and, you know, anything else in the financial area will benefit by lower rates.
  嗯，你知道，金融领域的其他任何东西都会从较低的利率中受益。

[20:25] So you know, banks look very good.
  所以你知道，银行看起来非常好。

[20:28] um brokers, stock brokers look good.
  嗯，经纪人，股票经纪人看起来不错。

[20:30] Um and other than that, um you
  嗯，除此之外，嗯，你

[20:35] good. Um and other than that, um you know, the area that has caught

[20:37] know, the area that has caught everybody's attention recently is uh

[20:40] everybody's attention recently is uh healthc care and biotech. If rates come

[20:42] healthc care and biotech. If rates come down, that's going to benefit biotech

[20:44] down, that's going to benefit biotech for sure. Healthcare I'm less sanguin

[20:47] for sure. Healthcare I'm less sanguin about. Um I think there's, you know,

[20:50] about. Um I think there's, you know, they may they may continue to play here,

[20:52] they may they may continue to play here, but I I think they had a big part of

[20:54] but I I think they had a big part of their run. they they had lagged for a

[20:56] their run. they they had lagged for a long time, so they caught up some. Um,

[20:58] long time, so they caught up some. Um, but I that's not not that they'll go

[21:01] but I that's not not that they'll go down in this last run. It's just not

[21:04] down in this last run. It's just not where I think you're going to see the

[21:05] where I think you're going to see the leadership. They they may play. I think

[21:08] leadership. They they may play. I think I think the market's going to broaden

[21:09] I think the market's going to broaden out, so an awful lot of things are going

[21:11] out, so an awful lot of things are going to play in this last run. The things I'm

[21:13] to play in this last run. The things I'm not bullish on, the things that I would

[21:15] not bullish on, the things that I would not expect to play out very well are are

[21:18] not expect to play out very well are are energy. You know, the oil, I still think

[21:21] energy. You know, the oil, I still think oil's going lower. um uh not

[21:24] oil's going lower. um uh not necessarily, you know, could be in a

[21:25] necessarily, you know, could be in a trading range for a while, but in the

[21:27] trading range for a while, but in the bust, I expect oil to go to $30.

[21:30] bust, I expect oil to go to $30. Uh so there's still plenty of downside

[21:32] Uh so there's still plenty of downside in oil and you know, the energy area is

[21:35] in oil and you know, the energy area is just not an area where I would I would

[21:37] just not an area where I would I would be expecting much. Um, utilities will

[21:41] be expecting much. Um, utilities will play if bonds play, but they're

[21:43] play if bonds play, but they're obviously a lower, you know, they're

[21:46] obviously a lower, you know, they're typically not going to deliver the kind

[21:48] typically not going to deliver the kind of returns you're going to get get from

[21:50] of returns you're going to get get from [snorts] tech or industrials or

[21:52] [snorts] tech or industrials or financials.

[21:54] financials. >> Yeah. Okay. Thanks for laying that out.

[21:56] >> Yeah. Okay. Thanks for laying that out. What would you say is your most

[21:56] What would you say is your most contrarian uh, you know, prediction at

[22:00] contrarian uh, you know, prediction at the moment or thought?

[22:02] the moment or thought? Yeah, at the moment I guess probably um

[22:05] Yeah, at the moment I guess probably um the the um bond call is probably the

[22:09] the the um bond call is probably the most contrarian. I don't think people

[22:12] most contrarian. I don't think people are all that um bullish on on the bond

[22:16] are all that um bullish on on the bond market and certainly won't be if we get

[22:18] market and certainly won't be if we get a backup in rates. Um I'm not at this

[22:21] a backup in rates. Um I'm not at this point, and this is how people

[22:23] point, and this is how people misunderstand. I'm I'm probably the most

[22:25] misunderstand. I'm I'm probably the most contrary strategist on the street. you

[22:28] contrary strategist on the street. you know, my calls over the last several

[22:29] know, my calls over the last several years have been oftentimes laughed at or

[22:33] years have been oftentimes laughed at or ridiculed for being crazy and stuff. So,

[22:36] ridiculed for being crazy and stuff. So, I'm, you know, I'm used to being out of

[22:38] I'm, you know, I'm used to being out of the mainstream and and away from the

[22:40] the mainstream and and away from the consensus. But there is a period when

[22:43] consensus. But there is a period when the consensus and I are not far apart.

[22:46] the consensus and I are not far apart. And that's kind of where we're at now

[22:47] And that's kind of where we're at now where I don't think my, you know, my

[22:50] where I don't think my, you know, my numbers are are way out of consensus,

[22:52] numbers are are way out of consensus, you know, my my targets. But in terms of

[22:55] you know, my my targets. But in terms of the market going higher, I don't think

[22:57] the market going higher, I don't think right now, like I said, the invest, you

[23:00] right now, like I said, the invest, you know, strategists and institutional

[23:02] know, strategists and institutional investors are somewhat skeptical. The

[23:04] investors are somewhat skeptical. The retail public is pretty bullish. Um, and

[23:07] retail public is pretty bullish. Um, and even the institutions have gotten, you

[23:09] even the institutions have gotten, you know, the the momentum of the tape pulls

[23:11] know, the the momentum of the tape pulls people in. So, they're not overly

[23:13] people in. So, they're not overly bearish. They're just not they're not

[23:15] bearish. They're just not they're not all in. Um and on on bonds because rates

[23:20] all in. Um and on on bonds because rates have come down some uh you know from

[23:23] have come down some uh you know from 45060 a few months ago. Um uh you know

[23:28] 45060 a few months ago. Um uh you know they're not overly bearish on bonds

[23:30] they're not overly bearish on bonds either but they're not they're not

[23:32] either but they're not they're not they're not looking for 3% or anything

[23:34] they're not looking for 3% or anything like that. So that's probably my most

[23:36] like that. So that's probably my most contrary call right now. Um I think

[23:40] contrary call right now. Um I think people have jumped on the bandwagon with

[23:42] people have jumped on the bandwagon with gold and silver. So I'm not contrary

[23:44] gold and silver. So I'm not contrary there at all. Um, you know, there are

[23:47] there at all. Um, you know, there are people telling you take telling people

[23:49] people telling you take telling people to take profits. Um, and I'm certainly I

[23:53] to take profits. Um, and I'm certainly I think that's a bad call for for the

[23:55] think that's a bad call for for the medals, but but the majority I think

[23:58] medals, but but the majority I think have, you know, the momentum in the

[24:00] have, you know, the momentum in the medals has gotten people's attention.

[24:01] medals has gotten people's attention. So, the majority there I think are on

[24:04] So, the majority there I think are on board in terms of being bullish.

[24:06] board in terms of being bullish. Yeah, it's really interesting as you're

[24:07] Yeah, it's really interesting as you're saying, you know, the further on through

[24:09] saying, you know, the further on through a cycle, the more the less contrarian a

[24:12] a cycle, the more the less contrarian a lot of your estimates are and that's

[24:13] lot of your estimates are and that's defin we've definitely seen that uh over

[24:15] defin we've definitely seen that uh over the past few years that we've been

[24:16] the past few years that we've been talking. Um what do you see? So

[24:18] talking. Um what do you see? So obviously there's Oh, sorry. Where where

[24:21] obviously there's Oh, sorry. Where where you'll see the contrary call again is at

[24:24] you'll see the contrary call again is at the top when when I'm turning bearish, I

[24:28] the top when when I'm turning bearish, I suspect what you're going to see is

[24:30] suspect what you're going to see is everybody's going to be all in. So I'm

[24:33] everybody's going to be all in. So I'm that's and that's the MO for me is at

[24:36] that's and that's the MO for me is at turning points at major inflection

[24:38] turning points at major inflection points I have no company I'm basically

[24:40] points I have no company I'm basically alone and then as I move as the thing

[24:43] alone and then as I move as the thing moves towards the other extreme you know

[24:47] moves towards the other extreme you know I become more consensus or the consensus

[24:49] I become more consensus or the consensus joins my call um and then at the next at

[24:53] joins my call um and then at the next at the other inflection point on the at the

[24:55] the other inflection point on the at the top I'll be calling for a big bare

[24:57] top I'll be calling for a big bare market and they'll be saying no this

[24:59] market and they'll be saying no this thing has legs.

[25:01] thing has legs. Yeah, great point. Um, we have a

[25:03] Yeah, great point. Um, we have a mid-election or there's a midterm

[25:04] mid-election or there's a midterm election coming up next year. So, and

[25:06] election coming up next year. So, and there's talk about, you know, giving

[25:07] there's talk about, you know, giving stimulus checks from tariffs to to

[25:10] stimulus checks from tariffs to to individuals. So, I imagine if that were

[25:11] individuals. So, I imagine if that were to happen, you'd expect the market to

[25:13] to happen, you'd expect the market to potentially, you know, prolongate even

[25:15] potentially, you know, prolongate even even further with that increased

[25:18] even further with that increased stimulus.

[25:19] stimulus. >> Yeah, I've had I've had a lot of people

[25:20] >> Yeah, I've had I've had a lot of people ask the question of could that change

[25:23] ask the question of could that change your forecast, you know, could that

[25:25] your forecast, you know, could that stretch out the cycle and or or even

[25:27] stretch out the cycle and or or even eliminate the bust. And I remind them

[25:30] eliminate the bust. And I remind them it's a global bust first of all. So it's

[25:32] it's a global bust first of all. So it's not just US- ccentric. Um and number two

[25:36] not just US- ccentric. Um and number two I think you know I think the reason I'm

[25:38] I think you know I think the reason I'm calling for a global bust is because of

[25:40] calling for a global bust is because of excesses have built up over decades.

[25:42] excesses have built up over decades. It's not just you know the last couple

[25:44] It's not just you know the last couple years. So it will it could prolong

[25:48] years. So it will it could prolong things for weeks or month or two. Um but

[25:52] things for weeks or month or two. Um but I don't think it changes the ultimate

[25:54] I don't think it changes the ultimate outcome. I still think we're heading for

[25:57] outcome. I still think we're heading for um something pretty dire simply because

[26:00] um something pretty dire simply because you've got far more leverage today than

[26:03] you've got far more leverage today than you had in 20089

[26:06] you had in 20089 and and there are issues out there that

[26:09] and and there are issues out there that um you know it's not just US it's around

[26:12] um you know it's not just US it's around the world uh the economies are not in

[26:14] the world uh the economies are not in great shape even even the US if you look

[26:18] great shape even even the US if you look uh and we we just had Black Friday and

[26:20] uh and we we just had Black Friday and and Cyber Monday and the numbers came

[26:23] and Cyber Monday and the numbers came through as they always seem seem to with

[26:26] through as they always seem seem to with growth, you know, some pretty good

[26:27] growth, you know, some pretty good numbers. Um, and so looks like we'll

[26:31] numbers. Um, and so looks like we'll have a good Christmas probably um for

[26:34] have a good Christmas probably um for retailers and and it looks, you know, so

[26:36] retailers and and it looks, you know, so you look and say the economy is not so

[26:38] you look and say the economy is not so bad. Consumers in better shape than I

[26:39] bad. Consumers in better shape than I thought. Maybe not. Maybe what you'll

[26:42] thought. Maybe not. Maybe what you'll see is that they're trying to stretch

[26:44] see is that they're trying to stretch their dollars. They don't have, you

[26:46] their dollars. They don't have, you know, particularly the it's a have and

[26:48] know, particularly the it's a have and have not economy. So you've got the

[26:51] have not economy. So you've got the people at the top end have plenty of

[26:53] people at the top end have plenty of wealth and have plenty of money to spend

[26:55] wealth and have plenty of money to spend and they're kind of keeping things

[26:57] and they're kind of keeping things going. The people in the bottom half are

[27:00] going. The people in the bottom half are just trying to make ends meet. So

[27:02] just trying to make ends meet. So they're taking advantage of Black Friday

[27:05] they're taking advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday to get you get all

[27:08] and Cyber Monday to get you get all their Christmas shopping in when they

[27:09] their Christmas shopping in when they know the prices are are the best and

[27:11] know the prices are are the best and they can stretch their dollars. So So

[27:14] they can stretch their dollars. So So that's part of it. And and the other

[27:16] that's part of it. And and the other part is just as we go forward it it

[27:19] part is just as we go forward it it there are signs that more and more

[27:21] there are signs that more and more people are becoming constrained. You

[27:23] people are becoming constrained. You know that that you know the the debt

[27:26] know that that you know the the debt numbers you know um delinquencies etc

[27:30] numbers you know um delinquencies etc are starting to show signs. They're

[27:31] are starting to show signs. They're still not at at the point where you get

[27:34] still not at at the point where you get really nervous, but they are showing

[27:36] really nervous, but they are showing signs that this economy is is late in

[27:38] signs that this economy is is late in the game and that, you know, the typical

[27:41] the game and that, you know, the typical strains that show up just before a

[27:43] strains that show up just before a recession are showing up and and so I

[27:47] recession are showing up and and so I Yeah, we can stretch things a bit with

[27:49] Yeah, we can stretch things a bit with a, you know, um, you know, $2,000

[27:53] a, you know, um, you know, $2,000 tax cut or whatever they're going to do,

[27:55] tax cut or whatever they're going to do, tax credit. Um but I just don't think it

[27:59] tax credit. Um but I just don't think it changes the the major picture.

[28:03] changes the the major picture. >> Okay. M makes a lot of sense. Um also

[28:06] >> Okay. M makes a lot of sense. Um also you know if we look at what's happening

[28:07] you know if we look at what's happening there's really massive increases in

[28:10] there's really massive increases in debt, massive increases in uh I guess

[28:13] debt, massive increases in uh I guess you know how economies are run fiscal

[28:16] you know how economies are run fiscal dominance doesn't seem to be stopping

[28:17] dominance doesn't seem to be stopping soon. There's talk that maybe this will

[28:19] soon. There's talk that maybe this will mean that rather than seeing market

[28:21] mean that rather than seeing market crashes as as you're suggesting, we

[28:23] crashes as as you're suggesting, we might just see the currency being

[28:25] might just see the currency being devalued over a longer period of time

[28:26] devalued over a longer period of time against real assets. So could that be a

[28:28] against real assets. So could that be a threat as well where maybe it's not

[28:30] threat as well where maybe it's not actual the the value of the equities in

[28:33] actual the the value of the equities in US dollars, but it's in in maybe other

[28:35] US dollars, but it's in in maybe other assets like gold or anything else where

[28:38] assets like gold or anything else where it's like we actually see that crash.

[28:41] it's like we actually see that crash. >> Yeah, I I don't think so. So, I mean,

[28:42] >> Yeah, I I don't think so. So, I mean, I've had this this bullish forecast. At

[28:46] I've had this this bullish forecast. At the same time, I've had uh I've been

[28:48] the same time, I've had uh I've been calling for the dollar to fall to 82,

[28:50] calling for the dollar to fall to 82, and that's still my forecast. So, I

[28:52] and that's still my forecast. So, I expect a dollar devaluation or dollar

[28:55] expect a dollar devaluation or dollar dollar weakness here for the next six

[28:57] dollar weakness here for the next six months um to and pretty hefty drop. You

[29:00] months um to and pretty hefty drop. You know, it's it's been it's been in a

[29:02] know, it's it's been it's been in a counter trend rally for several months

[29:04] counter trend rally for several months now, you know, for at least a couple

[29:06] now, you know, for at least a couple months um back towards 100 or over 100

[29:09] months um back towards 100 or over 100 and now it's at 99. And I think we

[29:13] and now it's at 99. And I think we pretty much have finished that

[29:14] pretty much have finished that counterturn rally. I expect the next

[29:16] counterturn rally. I expect the next stop to head, you know, to see the

[29:18] stop to head, you know, to see the dollar head towards 90 and al

[29:20] dollar head towards 90 and al ultimately, as I say, 82. So even though

[29:23] ultimately, as I say, 82. So even though I have that forecast, I still have a

[29:25] I have that forecast, I still have a forecast that um you know after this

[29:29] forecast that um you know after this this final run, the market rolls over,

[29:31] this final run, the market rolls over, the economy rolls over. So, so that

[29:33] the economy rolls over. So, so that later in the year, whether it's second

[29:35] later in the year, whether it's second quarter through the, you know, into 2027

[29:38] quarter through the, you know, into 2027 or whether it it starts a little later

[29:41] or whether it it starts a little later than that, I don't know. But, um, you

[29:43] than that, I don't know. But, um, you know, I I don't think weaker dollars

[29:46] know, I I don't think weaker dollars stops that. Um, and again, I remind

[29:49] stops that. Um, and again, I remind people if if if our dollar is selling

[29:52] people if if if our dollar is selling off like that, uh, versus the dollar,

[29:55] off like that, uh, versus the dollar, the euro is going up. I have a target of

[29:58] the euro is going up. I have a target of 130 on the euro. I have a target of 150

[30:00] 130 on the euro. I have a target of 150 on the uh British pound sterling. I have

[30:04] on the uh British pound sterling. I have um an expectation that even the yen's

[30:07] um an expectation that even the yen's going to have a good rally. Um you know,

[30:10] going to have a good rally. Um you know, the Canadian dollar, the Aussie dollar.

[30:12] the Canadian dollar, the Aussie dollar. So, so you know, yes, it might help the

[30:16] So, so you know, yes, it might help the US to have the dollar devalued or or

[30:18] US to have the dollar devalued or or lower. Um but they're dealing with

[30:21] lower. Um but they're dealing with stronger currency over there. So,

[30:23] stronger currency over there. So, because this is a global call, a global

[30:26] because this is a global call, a global bust, I just don't think, you know,

[30:28] bust, I just don't think, you know, you're going to move the the deck chairs

[30:31] you're going to move the the deck chairs around some, but I don't think it heads

[30:32] around some, but I don't think it heads off uh that global bust.

[30:35] off uh that global bust. >> Okay, makes a lot of sense. So, David,

[30:37] >> Okay, makes a lot of sense. So, David, thanks so much for your time today.

[30:38] thanks so much for your time today. Really appreciate it. Uh last question

[30:40] Really appreciate it. Uh last question is, what is one message you want people

[30:41] is, what is one message you want people to take away from our conversation?

[30:44] to take away from our conversation? >> Yeah, I guess the the the thing I would

[30:47] >> Yeah, I guess the the the thing I would just remind people is that this is the

[30:49] just remind people is that this is the end of a long cycle. So, um, yes, we're

[30:53] end of a long cycle. So, um, yes, we're in for some fireworks if I'm right, and

[30:55] in for some fireworks if I'm right, and it's going to be, I think, the biggest

[30:57] it's going to be, I think, the biggest rally in history, perhaps coming up in,

[31:00] rally in history, perhaps coming up in, you know, between mid December and say

[31:02] you know, between mid December and say the end of March. Um, however, just

[31:06] the end of March. Um, however, just remember it's it's the end of a 43-year

[31:08] remember it's it's the end of a 43-year secular bull market, and what follows is

[31:11] secular bull market, and what follows is probably going to be the biggest bare

[31:13] probably going to be the biggest bare market since 1929, again, if I'm right.

[31:16] market since 1929, again, if I'm right. Um, so don't get caught up in the

[31:19] Um, so don't get caught up in the because it it's investor psychology

[31:22] because it it's investor psychology works opposite to what's productive for

[31:24] works opposite to what's productive for an investor. It means that you get

[31:27] an investor. It means that you get caught up in the tape. You get caught up

[31:29] caught up in the tape. You get caught up in the momentum and you become more

[31:31] in the momentum and you become more bullish at the top instead of more

[31:33] bullish at the top instead of more bullish at the bottom. And I just

[31:36] bullish at the bottom. And I just caution people to know that's how it

[31:37] caution people to know that's how it works. And when everybody's getting more

[31:40] works. And when everybody's getting more bullish and calling for this thing to,

[31:42] bullish and calling for this thing to, you know, go for another year or two or

[31:44] you know, go for another year or two or three, be careful because just remember

[31:47] three, be careful because just remember where we came from. We were at 3500 on

[31:49] where we came from. We were at 3500 on the S&P, you know, back in October 2022.

[31:53] the S&P, you know, back in October 2022. So, we're three years removed from that

[31:56] So, we're three years removed from that and say three and a half years from now,

[31:59] and say three and a half years from now, um we could be um you know, two and a

[32:03] um we could be um you know, two and a half times where we were back then.

[32:05] half times where we were back then. That's a big run. Um, and I just want

[32:08] That's a big run. Um, and I just want people to know that. The other thing I

[32:10] people to know that. The other thing I should say is for those that um have

[32:14] should say is for those that um have financial advisors and and um or at

[32:18] financial advisors and and um or at least pay attention to what is kind of

[32:20] least pay attention to what is kind of the mantra out there, which is buy and

[32:22] the mantra out there, which is buy and hold. This is the one time if if we're

[32:26] hold. This is the one time if if we're looking at again, I can be wrong, but if

[32:28] looking at again, I can be wrong, but if we're looking at a a bare market that's

[32:30] we're looking at a a bare market that's the biggest in my lifetime, biggest in

[32:33] the biggest in my lifetime, biggest in the postw World War II era, biggest

[32:35] the postw World War II era, biggest since 1929,

[32:37] since 1929, um, buy and hold means you're going to

[32:40] um, buy and hold means you're going to ride it all the way back down. I'm

[32:41] ride it all the way back down. I'm calling for an 80% drop in the indexes.

[32:44] calling for an 80% drop in the indexes. you write it down 80%. Um, that means

[32:47] you write it down 80%. Um, that means you you could even triple or quadruple

[32:50] you you could even triple or quadruple off the bottom and not get back to the

[32:52] off the bottom and not get back to the levels that we're going to see early

[32:54] levels that we're going to see early next year. So, so I just would tell

[32:58] next year. So, so I just would tell people there are times when buy and hold

[33:00] people there are times when buy and hold works great. In the last 40 years, it

[33:02] works great. In the last 40 years, it has. If anybody listened to financial

[33:05] has. If anybody listened to financial advisors starting in the mid 80s when

[33:08] advisors starting in the mid 80s when they started saying, you know, the

[33:10] they started saying, you know, the popular mantra was it's time in the

[33:12] popular mantra was it's time in the market, not timing the market. meaning

[33:13] market, not timing the market. meaning buy and hold. Just ride it through. Ride

[33:16] buy and hold. Just ride it through. Ride through the the corrections, the bare

[33:18] through the the corrections, the bare markets, etc., and you'll do well. That

[33:21] markets, etc., and you'll do well. That was great advice. Anybody that bought

[33:22] was great advice. Anybody that bought the S&P index in 1985

[33:26] the S&P index in 1985 is sitting very pretty today thanks to

[33:28] is sitting very pretty today thanks to that advice. However, times change and

[33:32] that advice. However, times change and we are heading into a very different

[33:34] we are heading into a very different environment where buy and hold could be

[33:38] environment where buy and hold could be a real penalizing strategy. So, you

[33:41] a real penalizing strategy. So, you know, the industry is not going to

[33:42] know, the industry is not going to change. the financial industry

[33:44] change. the financial industry uh is going to stay with what brung them

[33:47] uh is going to stay with what brung them there. You know, they're going to

[33:48] there. You know, they're going to they're going to um continue with the

[33:50] they're going to um continue with the buy and hold strategy,

[33:53] buy and hold strategy, but I'm just saying for people to think

[33:55] but I'm just saying for people to think about this and understand what the

[33:58] about this and understand what the implications are if my forecast is

[34:00] implications are if my forecast is right. um it means you write it all the

[34:03] right. um it means you write it all the way down and you may never get back to

[34:04] way down and you may never get back to the levels of uh your valuations that

[34:07] the levels of uh your valuations that you have you know today or or certainly

[34:11] you have you know today or or certainly you know in the first quarter next year.

[34:14] you know in the first quarter next year. Um so it might make sense

[34:17] Um so it might make sense to look at things that will hold up in

[34:19] to look at things that will hold up in the bust and switch your portfolios

[34:21] the bust and switch your portfolios around from you know all equity or

[34:25] around from you know all equity or heavily equity to treasuries. Treasuries

[34:28] heavily equity to treasuries. Treasuries will be one of the very few assets. If

[34:30] will be one of the very few assets. If I'm right, rates are going to drop below

[34:33] I'm right, rates are going to drop below three in the next 3 to 6 months and

[34:36] three in the next 3 to 6 months and probably head towards zero in the bust.

[34:40] probably head towards zero in the bust. Uh and if we go to my my forecast is a

[34:42] Uh and if we go to my my forecast is a 0% 10year uh the end of next year

[34:45] 0% 10year uh the end of next year probably or early 2027 at the bottom at

[34:48] probably or early 2027 at the bottom at the end of the bust. If that happens,

[34:51] the end of the bust. If that happens, bonds do very well while everything else

[34:53] bonds do very well while everything else is getting hit very hard. So it's not

[34:56] is getting hit very hard. So it's not like you have to go to cash. There are

[34:58] like you have to go to cash. There are other not very many but there are other

[35:00] other not very many but there are other alternatives. So I just just a thought

[35:03] alternatives. So I just just a thought for people to kind of ponder because you

[35:06] for people to kind of ponder because you know if this happens you're going to get

[35:08] know if this happens you're going to get excited. People are going to see you

[35:11] excited. People are going to see you know the news is going to be talking

[35:12] know the news is going to be talking about it. Everybody's going telling you

[35:14] about it. Everybody's going telling you about how this is the great new world

[35:16] about how this is the great new world and this is going to go on for a long

[35:17] and this is going to go on for a long time thanks to AI, thanks to robotics,

[35:20] time thanks to AI, thanks to robotics, thanks to a lot of things thanks to

[35:22] thanks to a lot of things thanks to maybe peace in the Middle East and peace

[35:24] maybe peace in the Middle East and peace in Ukraine. Uh who knows? You know,

[35:27] in Ukraine. Uh who knows? You know, there could be a lot of things that will

[35:29] there could be a lot of things that will convince you that um the next, you know,

[35:33] convince you that um the next, you know, the next few years is going to be great

[35:36] the next few years is going to be great and you're going to have a hard time

[35:38] and you're going to have a hard time selling. uh just remember this to kind

[35:41] selling. uh just remember this to kind of be as a kind of in the back of your

[35:43] of be as a kind of in the back of your head as a conscience to say, "Yeah, I

[35:46] head as a conscience to say, "Yeah, I hear all that, but here's the other

[35:48] hear all that, but here's the other alternative."

[35:50] alternative." >> Yeah, great. Thanks so much for laying

[35:52] >> Yeah, great. Thanks so much for laying that out, David. And thanks again for

[35:54] that out, David. And thanks again for coming on. If anyone wanted to find out

[35:55] coming on. If anyone wanted to find out more about your work and what you do,

[35:56] more about your work and what you do, where would the best place for that be?

[35:59] where would the best place for that be? >> Yeah. Um I am on on X or Twitter. I So

[36:03] >> Yeah. Um I am on on X or Twitter. I So Elon Musk wants to change it back to

[36:05] Elon Musk wants to change it back to Twitter maybe, but um I'm I'm on there

[36:07] Twitter maybe, but um I'm I'm on there every day.

[36:09] every day. um pretty much uh replying to a lot of

[36:11] um pretty much uh replying to a lot of people. So, um you know, you can you can

[36:15] people. So, um you know, you can you can get a lot of what I talk about, you

[36:17] get a lot of what I talk about, you know, my my views on a day-to-day basis

[36:20] know, my my views on a day-to-day basis there. I don't change often. My my big

[36:22] there. I don't change often. My my big picture forecast, as you know, has been

[36:24] picture forecast, as you know, has been pretty much uh as it has been for a long

[36:27] pretty much uh as it has been for a long time. Uh so, it's not like I change my

[36:29] time. Uh so, it's not like I change my views dayto day. I'm not like that. But

[36:32] views dayto day. I'm not like that. But but you can kind of stay stay with my

[36:35] but you can kind of stay stay with my ongoing view by following me on Twitter.

[36:39] ongoing view by following me on Twitter. Um and then I have a quarterly letter

[36:42] Um and then I have a quarterly letter that I put out uh by subscription. So

[36:45] that I put out uh by subscription. So there's a cost to it. Um I I usually

[36:49] there's a cost to it. Um I I usually have people just direct message me uh on

[36:52] have people just direct message me uh on Twitter and and uh I will provide

[36:55] Twitter and and uh I will provide details. I would just caution people in

[36:58] details. I would just caution people in in just a last two or three weeks uh

[37:01] in just a last two or three weeks uh Twitter changed or exchanged their

[37:04] Twitter changed or exchanged their direct message function. It's now called

[37:07] direct message function. It's now called chat. Um it's in you know they went to

[37:10] chat. Um it's in you know they went to encrypted and um it's I just find it

[37:14] encrypted and um it's I just find it less reliable. Sometimes my replies go

[37:18] less reliable. Sometimes my replies go into I don't know where they go either.

[37:20] into I don't know where they go either. Um I um I think it's because people

[37:24] Um I um I think it's because people haven't you know there you have to now

[37:26] haven't you know there you have to now put in a passcode to be there etc. I'm

[37:29] put in a passcode to be there etc. I'm not sure if that's the reason or whether

[37:31] not sure if that's the reason or whether the you know still they're still working

[37:34] the you know still they're still working out the kinks. I'm not sure. So what I I

[37:37] out the kinks. I'm not sure. So what I I had said to people is if you're

[37:38] had said to people is if you're interested in the letter uh send me your

[37:41] interested in the letter uh send me your email on on that chat on that messaging

[37:44] email on on that chat on that messaging service. Um however it is working better

[37:48] service. Um however it is working better than it was the first week they did it.

[37:50] than it was the first week they did it. So, I'm gonna change that a little bit

[37:52] So, I'm gonna change that a little bit and say if you're interested in getting

[37:54] and say if you're interested in getting information on my letter, um, you know,

[37:57] information on my letter, um, you know, message me through chat, but also

[38:00] message me through chat, but also include your email. So, if if you don't

[38:02] include your email. So, if if you don't get um if if for some reason my reply on

[38:06] get um if if for some reason my reply on chat doesn't get back to you or doesn't

[38:08] chat doesn't get back to you or doesn't go through, I have your email and I can

[38:11] go through, I have your email and I can send it to you there. And I would just

[38:13] send it to you there. And I would just say if you if you don't see me

[38:15] say if you if you don't see me responding,

[38:17] responding, don't be afraid to say say, "Can you

[38:19] don't be afraid to say say, "Can you email me?" You'll come back to me again

[38:22] email me?" You'll come back to me again through that chat and say, "I didn't get

[38:24] through that chat and say, "I didn't get it. Will you email me?" Because I never

[38:27] it. Will you email me?" Because I never know. I send them, they look like they

[38:29] know. I send them, they look like they went through and I I have no idea unless

[38:31] went through and I I have no idea unless you let me know that you got it whether

[38:33] you let me know that you got it whether you did or not. Now, you know, when

[38:35] you did or not. Now, you know, when somebody replies again, I know they're

[38:36] somebody replies again, I know they're getting it, but uh if they don't reply,

[38:39] getting it, but uh if they don't reply, I I assume it's gone through, but it's

[38:42] I I assume it's gone through, but it's just not as reliable as it was when they

[38:44] just not as reliable as it was when they had the direct message service. So,

[38:46] had the direct message service. So, anyway, that's uh that's my story. Yeah,

[38:49] anyway, that's uh that's my story. Yeah, >> great. I'll put in this below, and I'm

[38:51] >> great. I'll put in this below, and I'm sure hopefully people can get in contact

[38:53] sure hopefully people can get in contact with you if they need, but thanks for

[38:54] with you if they need, but thanks for your time.

[38:56] your time. >> Okay. Thanks, Anthony. Merry Christmas.