# Politics, policies & power: John Mearsheimer’s blunt analysis | Centre Stage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWcTYY1Dofg

[00:00] because of our relationship with Israel
[00:02] because of our relationship with Israel we the United States of America are
[00:05] we the United States of America are complicit in this genocide whoever is
[00:08] complicit in this genocide whoever is President will support Israel
[00:11] President will support Israel unconditionally uh because of the power
[00:13] unconditionally uh because of the power of the
[00:14] of the [Music]
[00:17] lobby taking Center Stage today is John
[00:20] mimer a Renown political scientist and
[00:23] an influential scholar in international
[00:26] relations Professor mimer has been vocal
[00:29] in the public course surrounding the
[00:31] wars in Gaza and Ukraine and joined
[00:33] Center Stage to apply his theories to
[00:36] the ongoing war on Gaza and Israel's
[00:38] aspirations in the region he also weighs
[00:41] in on the 2024 US presidential election
[00:44] and the Minefield that is US foreign
[00:46] policy professor John mimer welcome to
[00:49] Center Stage I'm glad to be here
[00:51] everyone knew you in the political
[00:53] science fere do politicians actually
[00:55] listen to you as well I think that
[00:57] hardly anybody in the West listens to me
[01:01] Hardly anybody in the West listens to me.
[01:04] Uh, certainly my, in my own country, the United States.
[01:06] If they had listened to you, those politicians, um, where would we be today?
[01:10] Well, I think that the main area where I weighed in, where I thought I might have some influence, but I didn't.
[01:13] Was on the Ukraine issue.
[01:16] I made the argument for a long time that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a prescription for disaster.
[01:26] Because I understood full well that the Russians viewed, uh, Ukraine becoming part of NATO as an existential threat.
[01:36] So I started advocating loudly and clearly in February of 2014 that, uh, the United States should cease and desist from trying to bring Ukraine into NATO.
[01:48] But we, of course, did the opposite.
[01:51] We continued to pursue NATO expansion, and the end result is that in February of 2022, uh, the war broke out.
[02:00] I think if people had listened to me in
[02:02] think if people had listened to me in all honesty and not expanded NATO or all honesty and not expanded NATO or tried to expand NATO into Ukraine we.
[02:08] tried to expand NATO into Ukraine we would have avoided that war you were.
[02:10] would have avoided that war you were part of um three Schools main schools of.
[02:13] part of um three Schools main schools of international relations post Cold War.
[02:16] international relations post Cold War there was a kind of rivalry between.
[02:18] there was a kind of rivalry between yourself your um offensive political.
[02:21] yourself your um offensive political realism Theory versus fukuyama's more.
[02:24] realism Theory versus fukuyama's more optimistic about the eventual Tri.
[02:27] optimistic about the eventual Tri Triumph of liberal democracies and.
[02:29] Triumph of liberal democracies and Huntington's famous Clash of.
[02:31] Huntington's famous Clash of civilizations up until recent events um.
[02:35] civilizations up until recent events um Scholars would argue that your theor.
[02:38] Scholars would argue that your theor sound very logical but they remain.
[02:40] sound very logical but they remain untested well as you know in the.
[02:42] untested well as you know in the 1990s it looked like Frank fukiyama was.
[02:45] 1990s it looked like Frank fukiyama was right you know he had argued that we had.
[02:47] right you know he had argued that we had reached the end of History great power.
[02:50] reached the end of History great power politics was no more we were all going.
[02:52] politics was no more we were all going to live happily after happily ever after.
[02:56] to live happily after happily ever after and in fact Frank fuk said at the end of.
[02:59] and in fact Frank fuk said at the end of uh his article on the end of history.
[03:02] uh his article on the end of history that the biggest problem that we would face moving forward was boredom.
[03:07] uh but uh that that theory of international politics that theory that explains that we're going to get a peaceful world no longer looks credible.
[03:20] with regard to Sam Huntington he made the argument that we have this civilizational Clash taking place and one of the central features of his argument was was Islam versus the west.
[03:32] and at the time of 911 it looked like he was correct to many people.
[03:37] I never believe that because I think the concept of civilizations does not take you very far it's not an analytically powerful concept.
[03:45] I believe the most powerful ideology in the world is nationalism.
[03:54] the planet is filled with nation states nation states are the embodiment of nationalism and I think that to argue that civilizations are
[04:03] that to argue that civilizations are what really matter and that Wars take
[04:06] what really matter and that Wars take place across civilizations and not among
[04:10] place across civilizations and not among states from different civilizations is
[04:14] states from different civilizations is wrongheaded so where does your theory
[04:16] wrongheaded so where does your theory Stand now on the Israel Gaza Lebanon uh War
[04:20] Stand now on the Israel Gaza Lebanon uh War how do you dissect this conflict now
[04:23] War how do you dissect this conflict now the Palestinians live inside greater Israel
[04:27] the Palestinians live inside greater Israel right there's no Palestinian State fighting against an Israeli State
[04:30] State fighting against an Israeli State my theory applies to Interstate conflict
[04:33] my theory applies to Interstate conflict and it mainly applies to conflict
[04:37] and it mainly applies to conflict between great powers and in the Middle East
[04:39] between great powers and in the Middle East we're not talking about great powers
[04:42] East we're not talking about great powers and indeed with regard to the Israeli Palestinian conflict
[04:44] powers and indeed with regard to the Israeli Palestinian conflict we're not even talking about an interstate conflict
[04:47] Israeli Palestinian conflict we're not even talking about an interstate conflict
[04:49] even talking about an interstate conflict you had a first Ina in 1987
[04:51] conflict you had a first Ina in 1987 you had a second inata in 2000 and what happened on October 7th is just another manifestation of this conflict between
[04:55] had a second inata in 2000 and what happened on October 7th is just another manifestation of this conflict between
[04:58] happened on October 7th is just another manifestation of this conflict between
[05:04] manifestation of this conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis inside.
[05:07] the Palestinians and the Israelis inside of Greater Israel you don't believe anymore in the two-state solution.
[05:11] I thought that the two-state solution was possible many years ago.
[05:14] what killed that prospect for Palestinians.
[05:17] I think that the Israelis have never had any interest in a two-state solution.
[05:24] uh from the get-go.
[05:28] uh I mean the convention wisdom in the west certainly in the United States is that the Israelis have generously offered the Palestinians a state of their own on a number of occasions.
[05:41] and on each one of those occasions the Palestinians have rejected that generous offer.
[05:47] I think this is nonsense.
[05:49] this is simply not true.
[05:52] the Israelis have never offered the Palestinians a viable state of their own.
[05:59] and they have never had any interest in that.
[06:01] we're at a point today where it's virtually impossible to imagine Israel giving the Palestinians a
[06:07] imagine Israel giving the Palestinians a state of their own I think there really
[06:09] state of their own I think there really only two possibilities on the table one
[06:12] only two possibilities on the table one is the continuation of apartheid Israel
[06:16] is the continuation of apartheid Israel or ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians
[06:19] or ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank and it
[06:21] in Gaza and in the West Bank and it started in 1948 with the Noca the second
[06:25] started in 1948 with the Noca the second big cleansing was in
[06:28] big cleansing was in 1967 and there is some cleansing taking
[06:32] 1967 and there is some cleansing taking place now although the Israelis have not
[06:34] been able to move uh large numbers of
[06:38] been able to move uh large numbers of Palestinians out of Gaza or the West
[06:40] Palestinians out of Gaza or the West Bank and hopefully they won't be able to
[06:44] Bank and hopefully they won't be able to do that how does
[06:46] do that how does one any person in the in the American
[06:51] one any person in the in the American Administration see this genocide
[06:53] Administration see this genocide unfolding see these horrible images and
[06:56] unfolding see these horrible images and just continue with this passive almost
[07:00] just continue with this passive almost supportive um policies towards Israel I
[07:04] supportive um policies towards Israel I wonder myself uh I mean they're under
[07:07] wonder myself uh I mean they're under tremendous pressure from the Israel
[07:09] tremendous pressure from the Israel Lobby to support Israel no matter what.
[07:12] Lobby to support Israel no matter what uh so if Israel commits a genocide as.
[07:14] uh so if Israel commits a genocide as it's doing in Gaza uh there's no.
[07:17] it's doing in Gaza uh there's no question that the lobby is going to.
[07:19] question that the lobby is going to Great Lengths to pressure politicians.
[07:22] Great Lengths to pressure politicians and policy makers to support Israel.
[07:25] and policy makers to support Israel completely and most of them are doing.
[07:28] completely and most of them are doing that I'm Amazed that how few people have.
[07:31] that I'm Amazed that how few people have stood up uh and said that this is.
[07:34] stood up uh and said that this is unacceptable that this has to stop I.
[07:37] unacceptable that this has to stop I mean you take someone like Samantha.
[07:39] mean you take someone like Samantha power who's the head of the US Aid she.
[07:43] power who's the head of the US Aid she made her reputation as a scholar on.
[07:46] made her reputation as a scholar on genocide and she made it clear that she.
[07:48] genocide and she made it clear that she was horrified by genocides and horrified.
[07:52] was horrified by genocides and horrified by the fact that the United States had.
[07:54] by the fact that the United States had not done enough in the past to shut down.
[07:58] not done enough in the past to shut down or to prevent.
[08:00] or to prevent genocides and here she is in the Biden.
[08:03] genocides and here she is in the Biden Administration in a very prominent.
[08:06] Administration in a very prominent position not protesting what's going on.
[08:09] position not protesting what's going on in Gaza you would just expect uh human.
[08:12] in Gaza you would just expect uh human beings uh who see things like this.
[08:15] beings uh who see things like this happening uh to stand up and say enough.
[08:18] happening uh to stand up and say enough is enough how does the US Administration rationalize being uh a supporter of a genocide um how is this rational uh politically to the US.
[08:25] rationalize being uh a supporter of a genocide um how is this rational uh politically to the US.
[08:29] genocide um how is this rational uh politically to the US many people don't use the word genocide so many people believe that it's not actually a genocide that is taking place.
[08:33] politically to the US many people don't use the word genocide so many people believe that it's not actually a genocide that is taking place.
[08:37] use the word genocide so many people believe that it's not actually a genocide that is taking place a lot of people just bury their head in the sand.
[08:39] believe that it's not actually a genocide that is taking place a lot of people just bury their head in the sand.
[08:42] genocide that is taking place a lot of people just bury their head in the sand they don't want to see the evil that is taking place in Gaza and therefore they keep their mouth shut so technically.
[08:44] people just bury their head in the sand they don't want to see the evil that is taking place in Gaza and therefore they keep their mouth shut so technically.
[08:47] they don't want to see the evil that is taking place in Gaza and therefore they keep their mouth shut so technically.
[08:50] taking place in Gaza and therefore they keep their mouth shut so technically narrative is a big player there's no question that the narrative matters the.
[08:53] keep their mouth shut so technically narrative is a big player there's no question that the narrative matters the.
[08:56] narrative is a big player there's no question that the narrative matters the argument that the Iranians are the master puppeteers who are the principal cause of all of this trouble that we see today I think this argument is nonsense.
[08:58] question that the narrative matters the argument that the Iranians are the master puppeteers who are the principal cause of all of this trouble that we see today I think this argument is nonsense.
[09:00] argument that the Iranians are the master puppeteers who are the principal cause of all of this trouble that we see today I think this argument is nonsense.
[09:04] master puppeteers who are the principal cause of all of this trouble that we see today I think this argument is nonsense.
[09:06] cause of all of this trouble that we see today I think this argument is nonsense the Iranians are not the principal cause of this problem the Israelis are the.
[09:09] today I think this argument is nonsense the Iranians are not the principal cause of this problem the Israelis are the.
[09:11] the Iranians are not the principal cause of this problem the Israelis are the.
[09:13] of this problem the Israelis are the principal cause of this problem but.
[09:15] principal cause of this problem but there's a narrative in the west that.
[09:17] there's a narrative in the west that tells you the opposite argument that.
[09:19] tells you the opposite argument that blames the Iranians this is a conflict.
[09:22] blames the Iranians this is a conflict between uh the Palestinians and the.
[09:25] between uh the Palestinians and the Israelis and it's an unfair fight right.
[09:28] the Israeli are Godzilla and the.
[09:31] Palestinians are Bambi where is Israel.
[09:34] taking the region Israel has this dream.
[09:36] that it's going to remake the region uh.
[09:39] it's going to put an end to apartheid.
[09:41] Israel by cleansing the Palestinians.
[09:44] it's going to defeat Hezbollah and.
[09:46] it's going to defeat Hezbollah and remove Hezbollah as a threat uh and with.
[09:50] remove Hezbollah as a threat uh and with regard to Iran uh Iran will be.
[09:52] regard to Iran uh Iran will be neutralized as well and the United.
[09:55] neutralized as well and the United States will play the key role in doing.
[09:58] States will play the key role in doing that the Israelis are understand full.
[10:00] that the Israelis are understand full well they're not in a position uh to.
[10:03] well they're not in a position uh to sort of do great damage to Iran and uh.
[10:07] sort of do great damage to Iran and uh neuter Iran but the United States could.
[10:10] neuter Iran but the United States could do that in their mind uh the United.
[10:13] do that in their mind uh the United States can deal with the Iranian nuclear.
[10:15] States can deal with the Iranian nuclear program Israel is continuously seeking.
[10:17] program Israel is continuously seeking to exert its power in the region but it also talks about increasing its security.
[10:22] yet past events have shown that it only decreased it how can one rationalize this balance between power and desire.
[10:30] for security from Israel Israel is ideologically committed to a greater Israel.
[10:36] the Israelis beli that the West Bank and the Gaza Strip belong to them.
[10:43] that this is sacred territory and they furthermore understand that the Palestinians uh are uh a problem there.
[10:53] they're a roadblock to them creating a homogeneous Jew state that includes Gaza and the West Bank so they think they are Justified from an ideological point of view in removing the Palestinians uh from that territory and they make an argument about security.
[11:18] they make an argument about security that goes along with that ideological.
[11:20] that goes along with that ideological argument when I was young and I first started studying the Arab Israeli conflict.
[11:25] the Israelis fought Wars against against the Egyptians against the syrians against the jordanians.
[11:34] these were conventional Wars and the Israelis were very Adept at fighting those Wars.
[11:40] and they did not need much help from the United States or any other country to win those Wars.
[11:49] if you think about the world that Israel lives in today it's no longer worried about fighting a conventional war against Egypt or a conventional war against Syria.
[11:59] it's fighting against resistance groups like Hamas and Hezbollah that are armed with missiles and Rockets.
[12:08] it's fighting against Iran and it's not fighting a conventional war against Iran.
[12:13] it's dealing with rockets missiles and drones coming from Iran.
[12:17] the Israelis are now in
[12:21] coming from Iran the Israelis are now in a position where they have to depend.
[12:24] a position where they have to depend heavily on the United States one does.
[12:27] heavily on the United States one does not want to underestimate how important.
[12:30] not want to underestimate how important it is for Israel today to have military.
[12:34] it is for Israel today to have military support and economic support from the.
[12:37] support and economic support from the United States there's no way Israel.
[12:40] United States there's no way Israel could be fighting these wars without.
[12:42] could be fighting these wars without lots of support from the United States.
[12:45] lots of support from the United States this is a fundamentally different.
[12:47] this is a fundamentally different situation than Israel was in back in the.
[12:50] situation than Israel was in back in the 1950s 1960s 70s and even in the 1980s.
[12:55] 1950s 1960s 70s and even in the 1980s your latest book has a very interesting.
[12:57] your latest book has a very interesting title how States think.
[13:00] title how States think how does Iran think regarding this now.
[13:04] how does Iran think regarding this now neither Iran or the United States want.
[13:05] neither Iran or the United States want to fight each other it's the Israelis.
[13:08] to fight each other it's the Israelis who have been trying to pull the.
[13:09] who have been trying to pull the Iranians and the Americans into a fight.
[13:13] Iranians and the Americans into a fight so they're being rational oh yeah I.
[13:16] so they're being rational oh yeah I think the Iranians were being rational.
[13:17] think the Iranians were being rational from from an Iranian point of view the.
[13:19] from from an Iranian point of view the smart way to deal with Israel is.
[13:21] smart way to deal with Israel is indirectly it's to support hollah.
[13:24] indirectly it's to support hollah support Hamas support the houthis in Yemen and so forth and so on support.
[13:29] support Hamas support the houthis in Yemen and so forth and so on support support the militias in Iraq and in Syria as well but from an Iranian point of view you don't want to get directly involved unless you absolutely have to.
[13:39] and the Iranians thought I believe up until October 1st that they could appease the Americans appease the Israelis they could get uh some sort of deal with the Americans so that Iran would avoid getting pulled into the conflict.
[13:55] it was on July 31st that Israel killed the Palestinian leader in tran and it was not until October 1st that Iran retaliated.
[14:08] it's a long period of time and that I believe is because the Iranians were looking for a way not to have to retaliate.
[14:17] the Americans were telling them we'll get a ceasefire in Gaza and once we get a ceasefire in Gaza you Iran will not then
[14:27] ceasefire in Gaza you Iran will not then have to retaliate against is Israel but
[14:30] have to retaliate against is Israel but of course the Americans did not get a
[14:32] of course the Americans did not get a ceasefire the Israelis went out and
[14:34] ceasefire the Israelis went out and assass assassinated nasrala and the
[14:37] assass assassinated nasrala and the Iranians understood enough is enough so
[14:40] Iranians understood enough is enough so on October 1st the Iranians retaliated
[14:43] on October 1st the Iranians retaliated with 180 plus ballistic missiles aimed
[14:47] with 180 plus ballistic missiles aimed at Israel the Israelis have said they're
[14:49] at Israel the Israelis have said they're now going to retaliate and what the
[14:51] now going to retaliate and what the Iranians have said is okay you retaliate
[14:54] Iranians have said is okay you retaliate we're going to counter retaliate and if
[14:56] we're going to counter retaliate and if you counter counter retaliate we will
[14:59] you counter counter retaliate we will will counter counter counter retaliate
[15:01] will counter counter counter retaliate the Iranians understand that they have
[15:03] the Iranians understand that they have to go up the escalation ladder because
[15:06] to go up the escalation ladder because there is no cooperating with the
[15:08] there is no cooperating with the Americans and the Israelis to shut down
[15:11] Americans and the Israelis to shut down this conflict how far can Iran go what
[15:14] this conflict how far can Iran go what are the tools it has the Iranians can
[15:17] are the tools it has the Iranians can use their ballistic missile inventory to
[15:20] use their ballistic missile inventory to destroy oil fields and oil refineries in
[15:24] destroy oil fields and oil refineries in the region and cut off the flow of much
[15:27] the region and cut off the flow of much of the oil out of the Middle East to the rest of the world.
[15:31] this would have catastrophic consequences for the international economy and the mere threat of this uh has significant deterrent value.
[15:38] uh the Iranians as you know have been enriching uh nuclear material up to 60%.
[15:46] uh and it's quite easy for them to enrich up to 90% which would give them enough file material for a few bombs.
[15:57] if Iran was to get a bomb there are two possible consequences that are profoundly worrying.
[16:07] the first is you would undoubtedly get more proliferation in the Middle East.
[16:12] the Saudis for example have said that if Iran gets a bomb we will get a bomb.
[16:17] and if Iran and Saudi Arabia have bombs I would imagine the Turks the Iraqis and the Egyptians will not be far behind.
[16:25] so you would have a lot of nuclear proliferation in all likelihood if Iran.
[16:29] proliferation in all likelihood if Iran gets a nuclear bomb can you imagine a crisis between a nuclear armed Iran and a nuclear armed Israel that is really scary.
[16:42] You mentioned the importance and the weight of the Israeli Lobby uh on uh the US elections and the US foreign policy.
[16:51] What does IPAC want from that president?
[16:53] What does Netanyahu want from that President?
[16:55] And in the end what any of these two candidates will do.
[17:00] What APAC and the lobby want from the United States no matter who is the president is unconditional support for Israel.
[17:08] They want the United States to back Israel no matter what Israel does.
[17:18] What Israel wants is exactly the same thing.
[17:22] Israel wants the United States to do to support whatever Israel.
[17:30] States to do to support whatever Israel does uh if Israel needs more weapons the.
[17:33] does uh if Israel needs more weapons the United States should give Israel those.
[17:36] United States should give Israel those weapons if Israel needs diplomatic.
[17:38] weapons if Israel needs diplomatic support at the UN or wherever the United.
[17:41] support at the UN or wherever the United States should give Israel that.
[17:43] States should give Israel that diplomatic support so the goals of.
[17:46] diplomatic support so the goals of Israel and the Israel Lobby are.
[17:49] Israel and the Israel Lobby are synonymous it doesn't matter whether.
[17:51] synonymous it doesn't matter whether Donald Trump is elected or kamla Harris.
[17:55] Donald Trump is elected or kamla Harris is elected whoever is President will.
[17:58] is elected whoever is President will support Israel.
[18:00] support Israel unconditionally uh because of the power.
[18:02] unconditionally uh because of the power of the lobby as an American how do you.
[18:05] of the lobby as an American how do you feel that your country's foreign policy.
[18:07] feel that your country's foreign policy is not actually your own because of our.
[18:10] is not actually your own because of our relationship with Israel we the United.
[18:13] relationship with Israel we the United States of America are complicit in this.
[18:16] States of America are complicit in this genocide so I think from a moral point.
[18:19] genocide so I think from a moral point of view as well as from a strategic.
[18:21] of view as well as from a strategic point of view is America's unconditional.
[18:25] point of view is America's unconditional support of Israel is a ro in the extreme.
[18:30] support of Israel is a ro in the extreme it's not in America's strategic interest.
[18:34] it's not in America's strategic interest to support Israel this brings me back to to support Israel this brings me back to the question how is this rational to the the question how is this rational to the US is America being rational in this no.
[18:44] US is America being rational in this no no it's very important to understand.
[18:46] no it's very important to understand that states do not always behave.
[18:50] that states do not always behave rationally and in terms of the US.
[18:52] rationally and in terms of the US relationship with Israel Over time and.
[18:55] relationship with Israel Over time and certainly with regard to the US.
[18:57] certainly with regard to the US relationship with Israel today this is.
[19:00] relationship with Israel today this is not an example of rational Behavior this.
[19:03] not an example of rational Behavior this is not strategic Behavior if you got if.
[19:06] is not strategic Behavior if you got if you got the chance for the next US.
[19:08] you got the chance for the next US president to listen to you actually what.
[19:11] president to listen to you actually what would you advise them to do well I would.
[19:13] would you advise them to do well I would argue that the United States should go.
[19:15] argue that the United States should go to Great length to alter its.
[19:18] to Great length to alter its relationship with Israel in fundamental.
[19:20] relationship with Israel in fundamental ways I think when Israel's interests.
[19:24] ways I think when Israel's interests line up with America's interests the.
[19:26] line up with America's interests the United States should support Israel and.
[19:28] United States should support Israel and when they don't we should put enormous.
[19:31] when they don't we should put enormous pressure on Israel to change its
[19:33] pressure on Israel to change its behavior and I think the United States
[19:36] behavior and I think the United States clearly has the leverage to tell Israel
[19:39] clearly has the leverage to tell Israel that it has two choices one it can have
[19:42] that it has two choices one it can have a greater Israel but that greater Israel
[19:44] a greater Israel but that greater Israel will have to be a democracy one person
[19:47] will have to be a democracy one person one vote or we can have a two-state
[19:51] one vote or we can have a two-state solution which will mean putting an end
[19:54] solution which will mean putting an end to the settlement Enterprise moving the
[19:56] to the settlement Enterprise moving the settlers back into Greenline Israel and
[20:00] settlers back into Greenline Israel and giving the Palestinians a viable state
[20:03] giving the Palestinians a viable state of their own so that'd be the first
[20:04] of their own so that'd be the first thing I would do and then the second
[20:06] thing I would do and then the second thing I would do is try to change
[20:08] thing I would do is try to change relations with Iran because that will
[20:10] relations with Iran because that will Foster stability in the greater Middle
[20:13] Foster stability in the greater Middle East and it is in our interest in
[20:15] East and it is in our interest in America's interest to have more
[20:17] America's interest to have more stability in the broader Middle East in
[20:20] stability in the broader Middle East in addition to putting into putting an end
[20:23] addition to putting into putting an end to the Palestinian Israeli conflict
[20:26] to the Palestinian Israeli conflict where do you see Netanyahu leading the
[20:28] where do you see Netanyahu leading the region and the US with it whether
[20:30] region and the US with it whether Netanyahu is in power or someone else is
[20:34] Netanyahu is in power or someone else is in power in Israel at this point in time
[20:36] in power in Israel at this point in time doesn't matter at all uh the Israelis
[20:40] doesn't matter at all uh the Israelis are Hardline in the extreme and that's
[20:43] are Hardline in the extreme and that's not going to change if anything Israel
[20:45] not going to change if anything Israel is going to become more hard Ling on the
[20:48] is going to become more hard Ling on the Palestinian issue with the passage of
[20:50] Palestinian issue with the passage of time Israel is in a deep hole and what
[20:52] time Israel is in a deep hole and what they're doing is continuing to dig and
[20:55] they're doing is continuing to dig and the belief is that they're going to fix
[20:57] the belief is that they're going to fix this problem they're going to create a
[20:58] this problem they're going to create a new Middle East where Israel lives
[21:01] new Middle East where Israel lives happily ever after I don't think that's
[21:03] happily ever after I don't think that's going to happen what about the
[21:04] going to happen what about the Palestinians and all of this we talk now
[21:06] Palestinians and all of this we talk now about Iran the US Israel what about the
[21:09] about Iran the US Israel what about the Palestinians what's their future going
[21:11] Palestinians what's their future going to look like well the only agency that
[21:14] to look like well the only agency that the Palestinians have is to rebel I mean
[21:17] the Palestinians have is to rebel I mean there's not much else the Palestinians
[21:20] there's not much else the Palestinians can do they can resist the Palestinians
[21:23] can do they can resist the Palestinians don't have a lot of outside support the
[21:25] don't have a lot of outside support the houthis and Hezbollah have been fighting
[21:28] houthis and Hezbollah have been fighting against Israel and fighting against the
[21:30] against Israel and fighting against the United States in defense of the
[21:32] United States in defense of the Palestinians but the Palestinians don't
[21:34] Palestinians but the Palestinians don't have many allies in the world and uh
[21:38] have many allies in the world and uh they're really in a terrible situation
[21:40] they're really in a terrible situation and this is why I worry greatly about
[21:43] and this is why I worry greatly about their future I mean we're talking about
[21:46] their future I mean we're talking about a genocide in Gaza just think about that
[21:49] a genocide in Gaza just think about that the Israelis are bent on making Gaza
[21:51] the Israelis are bent on making Gaza unlivable well if the Palestinians can't
[21:54] unlivable well if the Palestinians can't live in Gaza and they can't exit Gaza
[21:57] live in Gaza and they can't exit Gaza that means they're going to die die in
[21:59] that means they're going to die die in Gaza and of course the Israelis are not
[22:01] Gaza and of course the Israelis are not just interested in cleansing Gaza
[22:04] just interested in cleansing Gaza they're also interested in cleansing the
[22:06] they're also interested in cleansing the West Bank and the Palestinians in the
[22:09] West Bank and the Palestinians in the West Bank are in good part defenseless
[22:12] West Bank are in good part defenseless as are the Palestinians in Gaza
[22:15] as are the Palestinians in Gaza especially when they go up against
[22:17] especially when they go up against Godzilla which is the IDF so the
[22:19] Godzilla which is the IDF so the Palestinians are in an extremely and I'm
[22:22] Palestinians are in an extremely and I'm choosing my words carefully here they
[22:24] choosing my words carefully here they are in an extremely difficult position
[22:27] are in an extremely difficult position and it seems like like a lonely position
[22:29] and it seems like like a lonely position what about Arab states if leaders wanted
[22:32] what about Arab states if leaders wanted to actually defend Palestinians and
[22:36] to actually defend Palestinians and protect their lives at at least what can
[22:38] protect their lives at at least what can they do the problem is given the
[22:40] they do the problem is given the military balance in the region there's
[22:44] military balance in the region there's not much that Arab leaders can do what
[22:47] not much that Arab leaders can do what is Jordan going to do declare war
[22:50] is Jordan going to do declare war against Israel come to the rescue the
[22:53] against Israel come to the rescue the Palestinians the fact is that Jordan
[22:55] Palestinians the fact is that Jordan does not have the military capability to
[22:58] does not have the military capability to intervene furthermore a country like
[23:01] intervene furthermore a country like Jordan and this is true of Egypt as well
[23:03] Jordan and this is true of Egypt as well are heavily dependent on American
[23:07] are heavily dependent on American economic aid for their survival that
[23:10] economic aid for their survival that gives the United States and in effect
[23:12] gives the United States and in effect Israel great leverage over both Jordan
[23:16] Israel great leverage over both Jordan and uh uh and Egypt so there's not much
[23:19] and uh uh and Egypt so there's not much they can do Russia is signing a
[23:21] they can do Russia is signing a strategic uh Co coll cooperation
[23:24] strategic uh Co coll cooperation agreement with Iran similar to the one
[23:26] agreement with Iran similar to the one they signed with North Korea they
[23:28] they signed with North Korea they declared uh that they have special
[23:31] declared uh that they have special partnership with China since 2022 the
[23:35] partnership with China since 2022 the the Ukrainian War how is it going to
[23:37] the Ukrainian War how is it going to change or to manifest uh in the region
[23:40] change or to manifest uh in the region in the midst of of a war it's the
[23:42] in the midst of of a war it's the American threat to those four countries
[23:45] American threat to those four countries that has forced them to work together as
[23:49] that has forced them to work together as far as the Middle East is concerned the
[23:52] far as the Middle East is concerned the two countries that matter greatly for
[23:54] two countries that matter greatly for the Middle East are Russia and Iran and
[23:58] the Middle East are Russia and Iran and and what you see happening is the
[24:00] and what you see happening is the Russians and the Iranians are now
[24:02] Russians and the Iranians are now beginning to work together the United
[24:05] beginning to work together the United States and Russia are both involved in
[24:07] States and Russia are both involved in the Middle East and the Russians view
[24:11] the Middle East and the Russians view the United States as a mortal enemy as
[24:13] the United States as a mortal enemy as they should the Russians are fighting in
[24:16] they should the Russians are fighting in effect the United States in Ukraine so
[24:19] effect the United States in Ukraine so the Russians want to help the Iranians
[24:22] the Russians want to help the Iranians and I believe they are now helping the
[24:25] and I believe they are now helping the Iranians uh and it'll be very
[24:27] Iranians uh and it'll be very interesting to see what happens if Iran
[24:29] interesting to see what happens if Iran decides to develop nuclear weapons if
[24:32] decides to develop nuclear weapons if Iran begins to go down the nuclear Road
[24:35] Iran begins to go down the nuclear Road will Russia resist and will Russia say
[24:38] will Russia resist and will Russia say no you cannot do that that has been the
[24:41] no you cannot do that that has been the case in the past you want to remember
[24:43] case in the past you want to remember that the Russians played a key role in
[24:46] that the Russians played a key role in putting together the jcpoa that was the
[24:48] putting together the jcpoa that was the arms control agreement involving Iran
[24:51] arms control agreement involving Iran that slowed down the Iranian nuclear
[24:54] that slowed down the Iranian nuclear program you simplify your main theory on
[24:56] program you simplify your main theory on your website by explaining and I quote I
[24:59] your website by explaining and I quote I am a realist which means that I believe
[25:01] am a realist which means that I believe that the great Powers dominate the
[25:03] that the great Powers dominate the International System and they constantly
[25:05] International System and they constantly engage in security competition with each
[25:08] engage in security competition with each other which sometimes leads to war you
[25:11] other which sometimes leads to war you come from the greatest power which
[25:14] come from the greatest power which sometimes makes its war in my region I
[25:16] sometimes makes its war in my region I come from this region where most of the
[25:18] come from this region where most of the wars mostly
[25:19] wars mostly happen is it my is it the fate of my
[25:22] happen is it my is it the fate of my people in my region how can we change
[25:24] people in my region how can we change that the Middle East is not going to be
[25:27] that the Middle East is not going to be a peaceful region for a long time to
[25:29] a peaceful region for a long time to come 8 Days 8 days before October 7th
[25:35] come 8 Days 8 days before October 7th Jake Sullivan who was the National
[25:37] Jake Sullivan who was the National Security adviser for President Biden
[25:40] Security adviser for President Biden said he had not seen the Middle East so
[25:44] said he had not seen the Middle East so peaceful but what he didn't understand
[25:46] peaceful but what he didn't understand was sitting underneath the surface were
[25:50] was sitting underneath the surface were these powerful volcanic forces that were
[25:53] these powerful volcanic forces that were just waiting to erupt and of course they
[25:56] just waiting to erupt and of course they began to erupt on October 7th and we've
[26:00] began to erupt on October 7th and we've had a series of eruptions since October
[26:03] had a series of eruptions since October 7th what about the youth they seem to
[26:07] 7th what about the youth they seem to have higher standards than us higher
[26:09] have higher standards than us higher moral uh values than us and a greater
[26:12] moral uh values than us and a greater sense of justice do you see that they
[26:15] sense of justice do you see that they were they're going to change the world I
[26:18] were they're going to change the world I think there's no question when you look
[26:20] think there's no question when you look at young people today uh they're much
[26:23] at young people today uh they're much more attuned to Human Rights uh uh
[26:26] more attuned to Human Rights uh uh they're much more attuned to sort of
[26:29] they're much more attuned to sort of doing the right thing from a moral point
[26:31] doing the right thing from a moral point of view it's no accident that when you
[26:34] of view it's no accident that when you look at what's been happening in the
[26:36] look at what's been happening in the west uh in terms of protests against
[26:40] west uh in terms of protests against Israeli
[26:41] Israeli policy uh in Gaza that young people have
[26:46] policy uh in Gaza that young people have been leading those protests and there's
[26:48] been leading those protests and there's much more dissatisfaction much more
[26:51] much more dissatisfaction much more anger with Israel among young people in
[26:53] anger with Israel among young people in the west than there is with older people
[26:57] the west than there is with older people the problem is that older people control
[27:01] the problem is that older people control the policymaking positions and it'll be
[27:05] the policymaking positions and it'll be a long time before those young people
[27:07] a long time before those young people become policy makers uh in the west it's
[27:12] become policy makers uh in the west it's not clear that public opinion matters
[27:15] not clear that public opinion matters very much for how policy makers operate
[27:19] very much for how policy makers operate you want to understand if public opinion
[27:22] you want to understand if public opinion in the west governed how Western leaders
[27:27] in the west governed how Western leaders dealt with Israel Over Gaza and over the
[27:30] dealt with Israel Over Gaza and over the West Bank we would have a fundamentally
[27:33] West Bank we would have a fundamentally different policy but up at the elite
[27:36] different policy but up at the elite level the elites remain Almost 100%
[27:39] level the elites remain Almost 100% committed to supporting Israel no matter
[27:42] committed to supporting Israel no matter what so it's going to take a long time
[27:45] what so it's going to take a long time before those young people move into
[27:47] before those young people move into policymaking positions and one could
[27:50] policymaking positions and one could even argue it's depressing to say this
[27:53] even argue it's depressing to say this but as they move up the ladder into
[27:57] but as they move up the ladder into policymaking positions they are likely
[28:00] policymaking positions they are likely to fall under the influence of the lobby
[28:02] to fall under the influence of the lobby and change their perspective thank you
[28:05] and change their perspective thank you very much professor John mimer you're
[28:07] very much professor John mimer you're more than welcome