# Jamie Dimon: Why I Won't Buy Bonds, AI's Future & Leadership Lessons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNbY8kR6-j0
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] When I look at AI itself, the amount of money being spent is huge.
  当我审视人工智能本身时，投入的资金数额是巨大的。

[00:04] Will it in total pay off?
  它总体上会得到回报吗？

[00:07] Probably, just like the internet did.
  很可能，就像互联网一样。

[00:09] Will it pay off the way you expect on the timet you expect?
  它会以你预期的方式在你预期的时间得到回报吗？

[00:12] Definitely not.
  绝对不是。

[00:13] At the moment, long longdated government bonds, would you be a buyer of those?
  目前，长期政府债券，你会是买家吗？

[00:18] But personally, no.
  但就个人而言，不会。

[00:20] I would not be a buyer.
  我不会是买家。

[00:22] And part of it is interest rates.
  部分原因在于利率。

[00:24] You know, inflation, I mean, even if inflation was 2%.
  你知道，通货膨胀，我的意思是，即使通货膨胀率是2%。

[00:26] You know, the 10-year bond should probably be at four and a half or four to four and a half.
  你知道，十年期债券可能应该在4.5%或4%到4.5%之间。

[00:29] And they're almost there today.
  而它们今天几乎达到了这个水平。

[00:30] You know, being an economic historian, I I I can't take out of my mind what happened after the great recession of 74.
  你知道，作为一名经济史学家，我无法忘记1974年大衰退之后发生的事情。

[00:38] That last thing and you actually have to sign the piece of paper and you know when you're signed that piece of paper that you've just committed the company, not just yourself, you know, to backbreaking scary work for 12 months and that your shareholder would be under pressure.
  最后那件事，你实际上必须签下那份文件，你知道当你签下那份文件时，你刚刚让公司——不仅仅是你自己——承担了为期12个月的极其繁重可怕的工作，而且你的股东将承受压力。

[00:53] Yeah.
  是的。

[00:55] You know, you're you're entering a moustorrm that you could have avoided.
  你知道，你正在进入一场你本可以避免的风暴。

[00:57] Yeah.
  是的。

[00:58] You feel a pit in your stomach and that that is lonely too.
  你感到胃里一阵翻腾，而且那种感觉也很孤独。

[01:01] [music]
  [音乐]

[01:01] Welcome to the Master Investor podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders, and politicians in the world, giving you, our listeners, the edge.
  欢迎收听由我威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特主持的《大师投资者》播客，在这里我们庆祝并向世界上最伟大的投资者、商业领袖和政治家的成功学习，为您——我们的听众——提供优势。

[01:12] The Master Investor podcast is sponsored by Else, Interactive Brokers, the World Gold Council, and BMY Investments.
  《大师投资者》播客由Else、盈透证券、世界黄金协会和BMY Investments赞助。

[01:21] Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for general information purposes only.
  请记住，本播客中表达的观点仅供一般信息参考。

[01:28] Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice, or a personal recommendation.
  播客中的任何内容均不构成金融推广、投资建议或个人推荐。

[01:35] More on that in the show notes.
  更多内容请参见节目说明。

[01:38] My guest today is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world of finance and banking, Jamie Diamond.
  我今天的嘉宾是金融和银行业无可争议的重量级冠军杰米·戴蒙。

[01:43] Of course, the chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, a bank he took over in January 2006 and has led for the last 20 years through the financial crisis, uh, through the sovereign debt crisis, through COVID, through the 2023 banking crisis, and each time emerging stronger on the other side.
  当然，他是摩根大通的董事长兼首席执行官，这家银行他于2006年1月接管，并在过去20年中领导其经历了金融危机、呃、主权债务危机、新冠疫情、2023年银行业危机，每次都在危机后变得更加强大。

[02:01] Jamie, it is great to see you again.
  杰米，很高兴再次见到你。

[02:01] Welcome to the Master
  欢迎来到《大师

[02:02] Investor podcast.
  投资者播客。

[02:03] I'm thrilled to be here.
  我很激动能来到这里。

[02:04] It's always good to see you, Wolf.
  见到你总是很高兴，沃尔夫。

[02:05] It's really a treat to have you to have
  能邀请到你真是太好了。

[02:07] We've done about seven or eight interviews together, but I've never never done something as long form as this.
  我们一起做过七八次采访，但我从未做过像这样长篇形式的。

[02:13] So, thank you for your time.
  所以，感谢你抽出时间。

[02:15] Let's go in the short term first of all though and your earnings just a few days ago.
  不过，我们先从短期来看，以及你几天前的财报。

[02:17] Blockbuster the highest ever quarterly profit uh 21.2 billion up 41%.
  创纪录的最高季度利润，呃，212亿美元，增长41%。

[02:25] I don't want to put a negative question on it but can can things go on that well?
  我不想提出负面问题，但事情能一直这么顺利吗？

[02:29] So you know listen we first of all we build a company for the long run and obviously we deal you mentioned crisis and ups and down.
  所以，你知道，听着，首先我们建立一家长期运营的公司，显然我们处理你提到的危机和起伏。

[02:35] We're clearly in a very almost as good as it gets environment for banks high volumes high asset prices you know a lot of people trade etc.
  我们显然处于一个几乎好到极致的银行环境：高交易量、高资产价格，你知道，很多人交易等等。

[02:43] So this can go on for a while.
  所以这种情况可能会持续一段时间。

[02:45] It will eventually end, you know, and uh but it it's not how we run the bank.
  它最终会结束，你知道，呃，但这并不是我们经营银行的方式。

[02:47] I run the bank, we serve clients, we serve them around the world.
  我经营这家银行，我们服务客户，我们在全球范围内服务他们。

[02:50] We serve them every day.
  我们每天为他们服务。

[02:52] We invest through thick or thin.
  无论顺境逆境，我们都进行投资。

[02:53] I remind people our best year wasn't the year we made the most money.
  我提醒人们，我们最好的年份并不是赚钱最多的那一年。

[02:55] Our best year was the year we had only a 7% return in tangible equity.
  我们最好的年份是只有7%有形股本回报率的那一年。

[02:59] It was n it was 2008 and that outperformed everybody and that
  那是，那是2008年，那一年我们超越了所有人，而且那

[03:03] Was our finest moment in a relative sense, and I guess setting you up for the long term.
  从相对意义上来说，这是我们最辉煌的时刻，我想这是为你长期发展做铺垫。

[03:06] And as you say, the current environment — we had again good economic data this morning on the retail sales front.
  正如你所说，当前环境——我们今早又看到了零售销售方面的良好经济数据。

[03:11] The environment for your stock is good, the environment for your company good, environment for the economy is good.
  你的股票环境良好，你的公司环境良好，经济环境也良好。

[03:17] At the same time, do you think the probability of a major risk suddenly arising is a bit higher than, you know, you've been in charge for 20 years?
  与此同时，你认为重大风险突然出现的概率是否比你执掌20年来略高一些？

[03:21] If you took out 2008 and COVID, is the tail risk bigger than outside of those moments?
  如果排除2008年和新冠疫情，尾部风险是否比那些时期之外更大？

[03:36] I think, I mean, first I was very intelligent to say it was the probability because, you know, we don't know which probability is baked into the market.
  我认为，首先我说这是概率是很明智的，因为你知道，我们不知道哪种概率已被市场消化。

[03:40] There is something baked in.
  有些东西已经被消化了。

[03:43] I tell people, if you said the market's going to fall 40%, there's only a 10% chance, that's 4%.
  我告诉人们，如果你说市场将下跌40%，只有10%的概率，那就是4%。

[03:47] That's one PE turn.
  那只是一个市盈率的变动。

[03:50] So it's possible something's baked in.
  所以有些东西可能已经被消化了。

[03:52] What's not baked in is that actually happens and such.
  没有被消化的是它实际发生以及诸如此类的情况。

[03:56] So I do think, if you made — and I always do this just as an exercise — make a list of all those really complex long-term geopolitical tectonic plates things that could affect the...
  所以我确实认为，如果你列出——我经常这样做作为练习——所有那些真正复杂的长期地缘政治板块性事物，它们可能影响……

[04:04] Market or may not and they may you know mix and match in a certain way you don't understand.
  市场可能不会，他们可能会以某种方式混合搭配，你不明白。

[04:10] So you have wars in Ukraine, terrorism in the Middle East, obviously Iran, uh, great global deficits, remilitarization, the world, you know, America's relationship with China, so there are a lot of things out there which you know could cause a problem, but again they might not.
  所以你有乌克兰的战争、中东的恐怖主义，显然还有伊朗、巨大的全球赤字、重新军事化、世界，你知道，美国与中国的关系，所以有很多事情可能会引发问题，但同样也可能不会。

[04:23] I hope they all resolved properly and that's you know what most governments want, but uh, but I, I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think.
  我希望它们都能妥善解决，这是大多数政府想要的，但我确实认为这些风险可能比其他人认为的要大。

[04:29] You said on the earnings call that the well, the US economy but the global economy quite impressively shrugged off oil price spikes with Iran, um, and then was quite resilient in the face of that.
  你在财报电话会议上说，美国经济乃至全球经济相当令人印象深刻地摆脱了伊朗导致的油价飙升，然后面对这种情况表现得相当有韧性。

[04:41] That said, fighting's obviously started again.
  话虽如此，战斗显然又开始了。

[04:44] The straight is obviously shut again.
  海峡显然再次关闭了。

[04:47] How much do you think of that resilience from March, April, May was because oil stocks were high and if this current shutting of the straight persists, might we not be so lucky this time around?
  你认为三、四、五月的那种韧性有多少是因为石油库存高，而如果当前海峡的关闭持续下去，我们这次可能就没那么幸运了？

[04:55] Yeah, I don't think the resiliency was from uh oil stocks and stuff like that.
  是的，我不认为韧性来自石油库存之类的东西。

[04:59] I think it was first was amazing.
  我认为首先它很惊人。

[05:01] If you look what happened, you know, we lost 20 million barrels a day, but China's cut
  如果你看看发生了什么，你知道，我们每天损失了2000万桶，但中国的减产

[05:04] Back 5 million.
  退回500万。

[05:06] They took down the reserves.
  他们撤走了储备。

[05:08] We took down our reserves.
  我们撤走了我们的储备。

[05:09] They moved 5 million barrels to other side to another, you know, the Red Sea as opposed to that.
  他们将500万桶原油转移到另一边，你知道，是红海而不是那里。

[05:13] It was amazing how the adjustment took place.
  调整发生的方式令人惊叹。

[05:14] You know, if you'd asked people before and they didn't forecast that.
  你知道，如果你之前问人们，他们并没有预测到这一点。

[05:17] But I think that's just one of the issues.
  但我认为这只是问题之一。

[05:18] I mean, there were, you know, we've obviously had the war in Ukraine going on for a long time, you know, trade negotiations.
  我的意思是，你知道，我们显然经历了乌克兰战争持续很长时间，还有贸易谈判。

[05:25] Uh, I think it's and and the global deficits I I look at them and I don't know when and how they might cause a problem, but I would not take that off the list.
  呃，我认为还有全球赤字，我看着它们，不知道它们何时以及如何可能引发问题，但我不会将其从清单上移除。

[05:31] The thing is I think is likely at least my current hypothesis is that the world economy is more diversified and therefore more resilient far less reliant on energy as a component input and you know that makes more resin but that does not mean that there's not a tipping point and you know tipping points are weird things when you see them because you've seen them you know all through history and there's always a concurrence of different types of events that cause it.
  问题是，我认为很可能——至少我目前的假设是——世界经济更加多元化，因此更具韧性，对能源作为投入要素的依赖大大降低，你知道，这增加了韧性，但这并不意味着不存在临界点，你知道，临界点是奇怪的东西，当你看到它们时，因为你已经在历史上见过它们，而且总是有不同类型的事件同时发生导致它。

[05:57] Uh it just may be it's a lot harder to get there.
  呃，可能只是达到那个点要困难得多。

[05:58] You may need more straws in the camel's back to cause that tipping point.
  你可能需要更多压垮骆驼的稻草才能引发那个临界点。

[06:02] Um and even this even this current you know the war start up again it may be that's not enough to
  嗯，甚至当前这个，你知道，战争再次爆发，可能这还不足以

[06:06] Do it.
  去做吧。

[06:07] You know if the president sought your advice or if you're giving the advice?
  你知道总统是否征求了你的意见，或者你正在提供建议？

[06:12] Can we afford as a country to pursue military objectives in Iran for months from now?
  作为一个国家，我们能否在未来几个月内承担在伊朗追求军事目标的代价？

[06:17] The economy can handle that.
  经济能够承受这一点。

[06:18] Of course, you have to really separate the really important subject from the economy.
  当然，你必须真正将非常重要的议题与经济区分开来。

[06:25] I mean, with all due respect about the economy, you don't want gas prices up, you don't want unemployment, stuff like that.
  我的意思是，恕我直言关于经济，你不希望油价上涨，你不希望失业，诸如此类。

[06:31] But you know, Winston Churchill got you guys through, you know, 18 months.
  但你知道，温斯顿·丘吉尔带领你们度过了，你知道，18个月。

[06:34] He stood alone against Hitler all by yourselves.
  他独自一人对抗希特勒，全靠你们自己。

[06:37] Could the economy withstand that?
  经济能承受住吗？

[06:38] Not really.
  不太能。

[06:41] Did you guys, what do you call, you know, do it?
  你们，怎么说呢，你知道，做到了吗？

[06:44] You did it, you know, with him and standing behind you.
  你们做到了，你知道，和他一起，并且站在你们身后。

[06:49] And so you know this Iran, whether you like what happened with this Iran war or not, I think it's naive to act like it isn't a major threat to the world.
  所以你知道这个伊朗，无论你是否喜欢这场伊朗战争的结果，我认为假装它不是对世界的重大威胁是天真的。

[06:55] They've been killing and murdering people for 47 years.
  他们杀害和谋杀人民已经47年了。

[06:58] They can't have nuclear weapons.
  他们不能拥有核武器。

[07:00] Something's got to be done.
  必须采取一些行动。

[07:02] Why we allowed all this and proxy wars endlessly and you know these proxy wars been going on and so I...
  为什么我们允许这一切和无休止的代理人战争，你知道这些代理人战争一直在进行，所以我……

[07:07] It's just, it just, it's a, it's a situation that needs to be resolved.
  这只是一个需要解决的情况。

[07:10] I think it would take fortitude.
  我认为这需要毅力。

[07:12] You know, I think a president would have to go to the American people and say this is important.
  你知道，我认为总统必须向美国人民说明这很重要。

[07:15] We're going to resolve it.
  我们要解决它。

[07:17] I could resolve it without any military deaths or put 100,000 of your kids on the field and, you know, get ally support, but we are going to, you know, have this strategy basically economic, you know, just tighten down an economy until they, you know, until they say we're, we're done.
  我可以在没有军事伤亡的情况下解决它，或者让你们的十万孩子上战场，并得到盟友支持，但我们将采取基本上经济性的策略，你知道，就是紧缩经济，直到他们，你知道，直到他们说我们完了。

[07:31] And that could happen; it may take a year and gas prices may go up, but is that a better outcome than them having a nuclear weapon in 10 years?
  这种情况可能发生；可能需要一年，油价可能上涨，但这比他们在十年内拥有核武器更好吗？

[07:37] Yeah, and I wouldn't even compare the economy to that; one is maybe life and death for mankind, the other one is the economy.
  是的，我甚至不会把经济与之相比；一个可能是人类的生死存亡，另一个是经济。

[07:43] And your security and resiliency initiative is linked to that; you want to make sure that the economy is always capable of these things.
  你的安全和韧性倡议与此相关；你要确保经济始终有能力应对这些事情。

[07:50] Yeah.
  是的。

[07:52] And that's our effort to, to help, you know, just a deep recognition that we, the western world, and I put UK in that category in Europe, we became overreliant on potential adversaries for things like rare earth semiconductors, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and every nation wants to be secure and resilient, and it's a different thing for every.
  这就是我们的努力，去帮助，你知道，只是深刻认识到我们西方世界——我把英国也归入欧洲那一类——变得过度依赖潜在对手，比如稀土、半导体、活性药物成分，每个国家都希望安全和有韧性，而且对每个国家来说情况都不同。

[08:08] Nation.
  国家。

[08:10] Some people don't have enough food, some have energy, some, uh, you know.
  有些人没有足够的食物，有些人有能源，有些人，呃，你知道的。

[08:12] You in Europe needs LG, at least most Europe needs LG, and so that was our effort to say, you know what, instead of talking about it, do something about it.
  你们在欧洲需要LG，至少大部分欧洲需要LG，所以这就是我们的努力，说，你知道吗，与其空谈，不如付诸行动。

[08:19] So the Security Resistance Initiative, you know, it's literally cutting across drones and cyber and space and AI and APIs and semico.
  所以安全抵抗倡议，你知道，它实际上横跨无人机、网络、太空、人工智能、API和半导体。

[08:29] What can we do from large companies to vendors to venture capital? Uh, we've, as you know, we rolled it out in the UK.
  从大公司到供应商再到风险投资，我们能做什么？呃，如你所知，我们在英国推出了它。

[08:35] You know, the western world needs to get its act together to make sure it's safe and secure.
  你知道，西方世界需要团结起来，确保它安全可靠。

[08:38] And, uh, and in particularly America, you know, you America's already stretched a little bit, and then things like, you know, you look at we didn't have enough productive capability to triple production of Patriot missiles.
  而且，呃，特别是美国，你知道，美国已经有点捉襟见肘了，然后像，你知道，你看看我们没有足够的生产能力将爱国者导弹的产量提高三倍。

[08:49] We should have planned for that, you know, and some very basic stuff we have to change.
  我们本应为此做好计划，你知道，而且一些非常基本的东西我们必须改变。

[08:52] I call this policy issues, not like directly military, so, uh, but I think, I mean, I think for your viewership, American leadership, America having the permanent economy, pre permanent military and the permanent economy are probably critical for a free, safe and democratic world.
  我称之为政策问题，不直接是军事问题，所以，呃，但我认为，我的意思是，我认为对于你的观众来说，美国的领导力，美国拥有永久经济、先发制人的永久军事和永久经济，可能对一个自由、安全和民主的世界至关重要。

[09:07] So, I put this in the category of.
  所以，我把这归入这一类。

[09:09] Absolute necessity.
  绝对必要。

[09:09] It's not a maybe.
  这不是一个可能。

[09:12] It's not a it's a budget item.
  这不是一个，它是一个预算项目。

[09:14] It's like we need to do this to to keep to stay safe.
  这就像我们需要这样做来保持安全。

[09:17] No, I I think I I think we would agree with that whether we're in the UK or the US.
  不，我认为，我认为我们会同意这一点，无论我们在英国还是美国。

[09:19] Um you mentioned government deficits there and it's obviously not just a US problem at all.
  嗯，你提到了政府赤字，这显然不仅仅是美国的问题。

[09:23] Uh it's certainly a UK problem, French problem, Japanese problem.
  呃，这肯定是英国的问题、法国的问题、日本的问题。

[09:28] I guess how high on the list of risks is that for you and do you think it's a problem that we will solve calmly over five or 10 years before it catches up with one of those countries and goes up global deficit debt to GDP is 100%.
  我想知道这对你来说在风险清单上有多高，你是否认为这是一个我们会在五年或十年内冷静解决的问题，在它赶上其中一个国家并导致全球赤字债务占GDP比例达到100%之前。

[09:43] Ours is 100% Europe on average 100%.
  我们的是100%，欧洲平均是100%。

[09:46] I think you guys are not quite 100% maybe a little bit over and your deficits less ours is 6% you know the world's deficit is almost 5%.
  我认为你们不是完全100%，可能稍微超过一点，而你们的赤字更少，我们的是6%，你知道世界的赤字几乎是5%。

[09:55] These are very high debt numbers and very high deficit numbers and we're actually doing quite well.
  这些是非常高的债务数字和非常高的赤字数字，而我们实际上做得相当好。

[10:02] You know, usually you have to have like a great recession or a depression to have or war to have numbers like that.
  你知道，通常你需要像大衰退或大萧条，或者战争，才能有这样的数字。

[10:07] And so my view is it will become a problem.
  所以我的观点是，这将会成为一个问题。

[10:09] It's better we deal with it maturely and
  我们最好成熟地处理它，并且

[10:11] Sit down, you know, and we tried years ago with Paul Ryan and President Obama, you know, but form a group, come together, acknowledge a problem and come with a solution.
  坐下，你知道，我们多年前曾尝试与保罗·瑞安和奥巴马总统合作，你知道，但组成一个小组，团结起来，承认问题并提出解决方案。

[10:21] That would be far the far better way to do it.
  那将是更好的做法。

[10:23] The other way is to wait for it to become a problem.
  另一种方式是等待问题出现。

[10:25] And my guess is that's what's going to happen.
  我猜这将会发生。

[10:26] And that'll exhibit itself with, you know, higher interest rates, you know, the market getting rattled a little bit, uh, uh, people talking about constantly, remember the bond markets, the bond vigilantes.
  而这会表现为，你知道，利率上升，你知道，市场有点动荡，呃，呃，人们不断谈论，记住债券市场，债券义警。

[10:39] Hopefully not worse than that, but it could be worse than that.
  希望不会比那更糟，但可能比那更糟。

[10:41] At the moment, long long-dated government bonds, would you be a buyer of those?
  目前，长期政府债券，你会买入吗？

[10:46] But personally, no.
  但就个人而言，不会。

[10:49] I I think, you know, I know the inflation numbers were good yesterday.
  我，我认为，你知道，我知道昨天的通胀数据不错。

[10:51] And again, the other thing about numbers, you dig into these numbers.
  再说一次，关于数字的另一件事，你要深入挖掘这些数字。

[10:53] I mean really dig into them and you I wouldn't give them too much credence.
  我的意思是真正深入挖掘它们，而你不会太相信它们。

[10:56] They they kind of have some consistency month by month but the actual numbers themselves I think Kevin Worsh is right to say let's look at how all these things get calcul which ones react to and uh how you weigh and balance them.
  它们，它们每个月都有一定的一致性，但实际数字本身，我认为凯文·沃什说得对，让我们看看所有这些事情是如何计算的，哪些会反应，以及呃你如何权衡和平衡它们。

[11:09] I would not be a buyer and part of it is interest rates you know inflation I mean even if inflation was
  我不会买入，部分原因是利率，你知道，通胀，我的意思是即使通胀是

[11:13] 2% you know the 10-year bond should probably be at four and a half or four to four and a half and the short rate should be you know three and a quarter or three and a half and they're almost there today.
  2%，你知道十年期国债收益率应该大概在4.5%或4%到4.5%之间，短期利率应该在3.25%或3.5%左右，而今天它们几乎达到了这个水平。

[11:23] So I don't understand what the upside is even if you think inflation go to two 2%.
  所以我不明白即使你认为通胀会降到2%，上涨空间在哪里。

[11:27] And by it's been over 3% for almost five years and you know went up to four now recently because the gas price coming down is down.
  而且它已经超过3%将近五年了，你知道最近又涨到了4%，因为汽油价格下降已经回落了。

[11:35] It may very well tick down but you know I you know being an economic historian.
  它很可能会小幅下降，但你知道，我作为一个经济史学家。

[11:39] I I I can't take out of my mind what happened you know after the great recession of 74.
  我无法忘记74年大衰退之后发生的事情。

[11:44] Deficits were less you know guns and butter because the Vietnam war was over was away.
  赤字减少了，你知道，因为越南战争结束了，大炮和黄油的政策也过去了。

[11:49] uh and it climbed you know from 3 and a half% to 5% to 7% to 9% to 11% you know and you could say well oil is a big component there there was the oil crisis of uh 73 and then 80 yes that is true you know unions were more powerful all these reasons but it didn't stop
  嗯，它从3.5%攀升到5%、7%、9%、11%，你知道，你可以说石油是其中的一个重要因素，还有73年和80年的石油危机，是的，这是真的，你知道工会更强大，所有这些原因，但它并没有阻止。

[12:11] this episode is sponsored by BNY
  本期节目由纽约梅隆银行赞助。

[12:14] Investments BMY Investments is part of BMY by a global financial services company supporting investors and institutions around the world.
  投资BMY投资是BMY的一部分，由一家全球金融服务公司支持世界各地的投资者和机构。

[12:24] This sponsorship does not constitute investment advice.
  本次赞助不构成投资建议。

[12:28] This episode is sponsored by the World Gold Council, the global experts on gold.
  本期节目由世界黄金协会赞助，该协会是全球黄金专家。

[12:33] They champion gold as a trusted strategic asset, provided marketleading research to help investors understand gold's role, and modernize how gold is owned, traded, and used, developing industry standards and market infrastructure.
  他们倡导黄金作为值得信赖的战略资产，提供市场领先的研究以帮助投资者理解黄金的作用，并现代化黄金的拥有、交易和使用方式，制定行业标准和市场基础设施。

[12:49] Learn more at goldhub.com.
  了解更多请访问goldhub.com。

[12:51] Let's let's talk about AI.
  让我们谈谈人工智能。

[12:52] I mean, I know you think really carefully about when you make an investment as a company.
  我的意思是，我知道你作为公司进行投资时会非常仔细地考虑。

[12:58] Do you think all of the investment we're seeing in it at the moment by corporations across America will have a positive ROI on the investments?
  你认为目前美国各公司对它的所有投资都会产生正回报吗？

[13:04] So I look AI I mean for the it is real and and and it's a technology which will cure cancers.
  所以我看人工智能，我的意思是，它是真实的，而且是一种将治愈癌症的技术。

[13:10] Your children are going to live to 100.
  你的孩子将活到100岁。

[13:12] The afflictions we had are
  我们曾有的痛苦是

[13:14] Going to be less.
  将会减少。

[13:16] It's going to invent drugs and you know errors in hospitals and errors in cars and I mean it should be great for mankind.
  它将发明药物，你知道医院里的错误和汽车里的错误，我的意思是它应该对人类有益。

[13:22] And obviously there are downsides sometimes like there were to airplanes and pharma and that is a role of government to figure out how to regulate it.
  显然，有时也有缺点，就像飞机和制药业一样，而政府的职责就是弄清楚如何监管它。

[13:28] Make sure you get the best out of it not the worst out of it.
  确保你从中得到最好的，而不是最坏的。

[13:31] But um and then and then there's the job issue which I you know I I think it's a legitimate issue to raise.
  但是，嗯，然后还有就业问题，你知道，我认为这是一个合理的问题。

[13:37] I don't think it's a legitimate get breathless over because right now it's creating more jobs.
  我不认为这值得大惊小怪，因为目前它正在创造更多就业机会。

[13:40] I read today there are 8 million available AI and cyber jobs.
  我今天读到有800万个AI和网络安全职位空缺。

[13:46] So it's just we got to re retool our training systems and we need to do this right away anyway which is you know that people can quickly get reskilled and retrained in somebody that's productive.
  所以我们只需要重新调整我们的培训系统，而且无论如何我们需要立即这样做，你知道，这样人们就能快速掌握新技能并接受再培训，成为有生产力的人。

[13:54] There are a lot of jobs you know they're going to open up in the trades very highpaying jobs there I just mentioned AI and cyber jobs and companies themselves going to be doing a lot of that.
  有很多工作，你知道，在技工行业会有很多高薪职位，我刚才提到了AI和网络安全职位，公司本身也会在这方面做很多工作。

[14:02] When I look at AI itself the amount of money being spent is huge will it in total pay off probably just like the internet did will it pay off the way you expect on the time you expect definitely.
  当我审视AI本身时，投入的资金是巨大的，它总体上会得到回报吗？可能就像互联网一样，它是否会像你预期的那样在你预期的时间内得到回报？肯定会的。

[14:15] Definitely not.
  绝对不是。

[14:17] And you know remember so we had Yahoo and know Netscape and all these companies that went bankrupt but Google made it you know Facebook made it like and these are big powerful companies and then there all these ancillary benefits from the internet uh like your iPhones and your things like that.
  而且你知道，记得我们有雅虎和网景以及所有这些破产的公司，但谷歌成功了，脸书也成功了，这些都是大型强大的公司，然后还有来自互联网的所有这些附带好处，比如你的iPhone和你的那些东西。

[14:34] So yes it it is a powerful tool that will create a huge amount of value.
  所以是的，它是一个强大的工具，将创造巨大的价值。

[14:38] Companies will become very disciplined in how they spend their money on it because as you pointed out companies will look at you know okay I put $100 million in this what am I what am I getting you know like MPVS and values and so there's that and that will cause some of the issues out there but what you willing to pay for what are you not willing to pay for what you find cheaper ways to do it we're already finding a lot of cheap ways to do things today you know and and there are new tech there are people writing code now that will send your queries to the the cheapest and fastest depending what you as opposed to, you know, right now when coders do it themselves, they they just use the one they like and maybe the most expensive one and they're using it for a very simple simple thing.
  公司会在如何花钱上变得非常自律，因为正如你指出的，公司会看，你知道，好吧，我投入了一亿美元，我得到了什么？你知道，比如MPVS和价值等等，所以就是这样，那会导致一些问题的出现，但你愿意为什么付费，不愿意为什么付费，你找到更便宜的方法来做它，我们今天已经找到了很多便宜的方法来做事情，你知道，而且还有新技术，现在有人在写代码，会根据你的需求将查询发送到最便宜最快的，而不是像现在，当程序员自己做的时候，他们只用他们喜欢的一个，可能是最贵的一个，而且他们用它来做非常简单的事情。

[15:16] Do you think as you step back and look at the market as a whole, we're pricing in the perfect outcome at the moment?
  你认为当你退一步，纵观整个市场，我们目前正在为完美的结果定价吗？

[15:23] I said probably not perfect, but probably a good outcome.
  我说可能不是完美，但可能是一个好的结果。

[15:27] Profits are way up.
  利润大幅上升。

[15:29] You know, you can grow into that even if it's high, but you know, if you have a downturn, then obviously that's a different story.
  你知道，即使估值很高，你也可以通过增长来消化，但你知道，如果出现经济低迷，那显然就是另一回事了。

[15:34] So sort of give us a gist in the same way you did for long-dated bonds like S&P 500 here.
  那么，就像你之前对长期债券（比如标普500）所做的那样，给我们一个要点吧。

[15:38] Are you a buyer of that?
  你是买家吗？

[15:39] When it comes to equities, I do things name by name.
  在股票方面，我是一支一支地操作。

[15:43] I'm not an index kind of person.
  我不是那种投资指数的人。

[15:46] Have you bought any equities recently?
  你最近买过股票吗？

[15:48] Uh, no, I have not.
  呃，没有，我没有买。

[15:52] You said in general my big buy at this price.
  你大致说过，在这个价格上我不会大举买入。

[15:54] No, but if you came to me and said that this is a great investment, I would consider doing it.
  不，但如果你来找我，说这是一项很棒的投资，我会考虑去做。

[16:02] With the SpaceX IPO itself, obviously he's now, I think today it's about round, it's back to its IPO price.
  至于SpaceX的IPO本身，显然现在，我想今天差不多是……它又回到了IPO价格。

[16:08] How directly involved? You don't do individual IPOs, but you were quite involved with this one.
  你参与得有多直接？你不做个股IPO，但你对这个参与得相当多。

[16:12] You had Elon on just beforehand.
  你之前刚请了埃隆上节目。

[16:14] How much did you think?
  你是怎么想的？

[16:16] About that price?
  关于那个价格？

[16:18] Quite a bit.
  相当多。

[16:20] But you have to understand about the price is not what you want or don't want.
  但你必须明白，价格不是你想要或不想要的问题。

[16:23] You have hundreds, thousands of very smart people, you know, saying what they would do and how they would do it and how they value it.
  你有成百上千非常聪明的人，你知道，他们在说他们会做什么、怎么做以及如何估值。

[16:28] And you need a clearing price and so uh that's much more recess the price you know and this this is unique because they said there's a price which is kind of a different way to do it but then people say am I willing to buy at that price and and uh and you can see all the debates and all the arguments you know it is an extraordinary company that I do know for sure I went to visit it uh and Starlink is a extraordinary product and company part of star SpaceX you know I've seen numbers on the data centers in space that could actually work, you know.
  你需要一个清算价格，所以嗯，那更像是价格的回调，你知道，这很独特，因为他们说有一个价格，这是一种不同的做法，但随后人们说，我愿意以那个价格购买吗，嗯，你可以看到所有的辩论和所有的争论，你知道，这确实是一家非凡的公司，我确定我去参观过它，嗯，星链是一个非凡的产品和公司，是SpaceX的一部分，你知道，我见过关于太空数据中心的数字，它们实际上可能行得通，你知道。

[17:00] So some people, no this this actually works.
  所以有些人，不，这实际上行得通。

[17:01] There are some technical issues about, you know, getting data back here, which they would do by laser, you know, and then the technical issue is like what the weather's bad and you just move the laser to another part of the planet by moving to another satellite.
  有一些技术问题，你知道，关于把数据传回这里，他们会用激光来做，你知道，然后技术问题就像天气不好时，你只需通过切换到另一颗卫星，把激光移到地球的另一部分。

[17:12] But if it works, you're talking about very cheap energy, very cheap cooling, very stable.
  但如果它行得通，你就在谈论非常便宜的能源、非常便宜的冷却、非常稳定。

[17:16] You know,
  你知道，

[17:17] You don't you don't get the vibrations in space you get here.
  你在太空中得不到你在这里得到的振动。

[17:19] Uh and it solves this, you know, where do you put the data center issue?
  呃，这解决了，你知道，数据中心放哪里的问题。

[17:24] So, you know, look, these these are unbelievable things.
  所以，你知道，看，这些都是难以置信的事情。

[17:26] So, um, and Starlink has 10,000 satellites up there.
  所以，嗯，而且星链有10,000颗卫星在那里。

[17:32] The next version, V3, is going to have a 100,000.
  下一个版本，V3，将会有100,000颗。

[17:34] And if you've used Star Starlink V2, version two, it's extraordinary.
  如果你用过星链V2，版本二，那真是太棒了。

[17:39] It It's particularly extraordinary in the English countryside where you have no other connectivity.
  它在英国乡村尤其出色，那里没有其他连接方式。

[17:43] That's my point.
  这就是我的观点。

[17:44] Yeah.
  是的。

[17:45] Yeah.
  是的。

[17:45] Um, I had Lloyd Blankfine on the podcast a few a few months ago, and we were talking a lot about the financial crisis.
  嗯，几个月前我请了劳埃德·布兰克费恩上播客，我们聊了很多关于金融危机的事。

[17:53] Um, and he was talking about the first requirement.
  嗯，他谈到了第一个要求。

[17:55] This was his quote, "The first requirement of any business is to stay in business.
  这是他的原话：“任何企业的首要要求是生存下去。

[17:58] You can recover from losses and live to fight another day.
  你可以从损失中恢复，改日再战。

[18:00] You can't recover from being dead."
  你无法从死亡中恢复。”

[18:02] But he went on to say that in 2008, there was a 15 to 20% chance that Goldman Sachs could have gone bust.
  但他接着说，在2008年，高盛有15%到20%的可能性会破产。

[18:09] Which struck me as quite a revelation in light of in light of that quote.
  这让我觉得，鉴于那句话，这真是个启示。

[18:15] Looking back now, 18 years on, was there a 15 to
  现在回头看，18年后，是否有15%到

[18:18] 20% chance that JP Morgan could have gone bust? No chance, zero chance.
  摩根大通有20%的可能性破产？不可能，零概率。

[18:22] We had far more capital and far more liquidity than most people out there.
  我们比大多数机构拥有多得多的资本和流动性。

[18:29] I think the way you know I was always prepared for and if you look at a lot of companies, I don't want to point anyone, their leverage ratio had gone up like this in the seven years beforehand.
  我认为，你知道，我一直为此做好准备；如果你看看很多公司——我不想点名——它们的杠杆率在之前的七年里像这样飙升。

[18:39] The day I got to JP Morgan, which is before I became the CEO, 2004.
  我加入摩根大通的那天——那是在我成为CEO之前——是2004年。

[18:43] Oh, I was like it's too much.
  哦，我当时觉得这太多了。

[18:45] I already did, you know, we already did stress testing and I agree with Lloyd, by the way.
  我已经做了，你知道，我们早就做了压力测试，而且顺便说一句，我同意劳埃德的观点。

[18:51] You got to be prepared to live.
  你必须为生存做好准备。

[18:52] I always said, what's the worst case? How bad can it get? If it gets there, can you handle it by unit?
  我总说，最坏的情况是什么？能糟糕到什么程度？如果到了那一步，每个部门能应对吗？

[18:56] And then I add it all together and said, well, if every unit came to the worst place at the same time, can you handle it? That's even though that would almost never happen.
  然后我把所有情况加在一起说，好吧，如果每个部门同时陷入最糟境地，你能应对吗？尽管这几乎永远不会发生。

[19:02] So, very and I was very cautious by '07.
  所以，非常——而且我到2007年时非常谨慎。

[19:09] I guess you didn't just make it through the crisis as you said 2008 you had a positive ROE was fantastic year in a relative sense but
  我猜你不仅挺过了危机——如你所说2008年——你的净资产收益率还是正的，相对而言是极好的一年，但

[19:19] You didn't just emerge from the crisis.
  你并非只是从危机中脱颖而出。

[19:20] You know you are quite comfortably now the biggest bank in the world.
  你知道你现在很轻松地成为了世界上最大的银行。

[19:24] When you took over in 2006, you were third or fourth biggest in the US.
  当你在2006年接手时，你是美国第三或第四大银行。

[19:29] You've grown about eightfold since then to $900 billion market cap.
  自那以后，你增长了大约八倍，市值达到9000亿美元。

[19:33] The rivals that were bigger than you then have grown about 1.5 to two times.
  当时比你更大的竞争对手增长了大约1.5到两倍。

[19:37] You're more than double your biggest rival now.
  你现在是你最大竞争对手的两倍多。

[19:40] Back then, were you confident you'd get the bank to where it is now?
  当时，你有信心把银行带到现在的地位吗？

[19:44] No.
  没有。

[19:46] Did you always have a personal belief?
  你一直有个人信念吗？

[19:48] No.
  没有。

[19:49] I didn't look at it that way.
  我不这么看。

[19:51] I think you get in trouble if you say I want to be the biggest bank in the world.
  我认为如果你说我想成为世界上最大的银行，你会遇到麻烦。

[19:56] I always look at it kind of the same, which is you, I love, you know, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, you know, they say they didn't have the best arm and they weren't good runners, but they became the best coach.
  我总是以同样的方式看待它，那就是，你知道，我喜欢汤姆·布雷迪和佩顿·曼宁，你知道，他们说他们没有最好的手臂，也不是好的跑者，但他们成为了最好的教练。

[20:05] They worked every day.
  他们每天都工作。

[20:07] They put the shoulder pads on every play, every practice, everything.
  他们每次比赛、每次训练、每件事都戴上护肩。

[20:11] And just so I was always better branches, better people, better systems, better this.
  所以，我总是有更好的分行、更好的人、更好的系统、更好的这个。

[20:15] Look at the competition.
  看看竞争。

[20:16] You know, build the business, build it the right way, build the right people, you know, fix your...
  你知道，建立业务，以正确的方式建立它，培养合适的人，你知道，解决你的……

[20:20] mistakes. I mean, rapid recognition

[20:22] errors is a very important risk

[20:24] management tool. Uh, and just

[20:26] continuously build. And, you know, we

[20:28] weren't number one in a lot of

[20:29] businesses back then. even say we're

[20:31] quite critical of ourselves because when

[20:33] they when people say to me at the

[20:34] meeting we're number one. I say yeah no

[20:35] you're not. Goldman is number one in

[20:36] that

[20:37] you know and they're number one in that

[20:39] and they're number two in Vietnam and

[20:41] we're number seven you know and at a

[20:43] very detailed level you know you when

[20:45] you look at those details it's a little

[20:46] humbling you're not that as good as you

[20:48] think sometimes and so just constantly

[20:50] building. So I did not expect it to have

[20:52] a dream one day we'd be you know the uh

[20:55] a star you know in the World Cup. Yeah,

[20:57] but that was more of a dream. That

[20:58] wasn't a even a target at the time.

[21:00] Getting through those tough moments

[21:02] reminded me of I guess the pressure you

[21:04] must have felt in in moments like the

[21:06] peak of the financial crisis. And whilst

[21:08] I know you have this amazing team around

[21:10] you that you must bounce ideas off and

[21:13] and decide whether to do things or not,

[21:16] the decisions are ultimately yours to

[21:18] make. And if we took say you know the

[21:21] decision to buy Bear Sterns and take

[21:22] onto your balance sheet all this risk

[21:24] that you didn't have beforehand as you

[21:26] said you had zero chance of going bust

[21:28] before that. I just wonder how lonely

[21:30] that is sometimes and and even you

[21:33] finished the due diligence for a big

[21:34] decision. H how do you then make that

[21:37] final call? Are you sitting in on the

[21:38] desk by yourself? How do you buy a

[21:41] company? Do you sign a piece of paper?

[21:42] Is that it?

[21:43] That's you you have a very good point.

[21:45] So first of all we did a lot of well I I

[21:47] do have great teams and we go through it

[21:49] like people you're not guessing like we

[21:51] went through on that every asset every

[21:53] loan every trade we went through their

[21:55] systems their litigation their personnel

[21:56] records their uh so by the time we knew

[22:00] we've done merges before you know

[22:01] consolidating which is really hard to do

[22:03] you know complex systems and stuff like

[22:05] that so we actually went through all of

[22:07] that and the price was right I say there

[22:10] was a huge in this case a huge margin of

[22:12] error in the price you know they had 12

[22:14] billion book value. We're buying it for

[22:16] it. Ultimately became a billion. All of

[22:18] which we wrote off by the way. So I tell

[22:19] people we knew that was we needed that

[22:21] to to clean up the balance sheet

[22:23] basically and merge the companies. Um

[22:25] and we had the management team was going

[22:26] to run it the next day. So we we were in

[22:28] pretty good shape. You say, "Okay,

[22:29] you're about to fight a war." Well, you

[22:30] got an army, you got the people, you

[22:32] know what you're doing. But when you

[22:33] that last thing when the board has voted

[22:37] and they bring and you actually have to

[22:39] sign the piece of paper and you know

[22:41] when you're signed that piece of paper

[22:43] that you've just committed the company

[22:45] not just yourself you know you just

[22:46] committed your 150 50,000 people at the

[22:49] time you know to back breaking scary

[22:52] work for 12 months and that your

[22:54] shareholder would be under pressure uh

[22:56] that you know this would create

[22:57] political pluses and minuses. Yeah. you

[23:00] know, you're you're entering a mous

[23:01] drawn that you could have avoided at

[23:03] this particular case, but that was good

[23:05] for the country that JBmore could handle

[23:06] it that we were going to get something

[23:08] of benefit out of was, you know, had a

[23:10] commercial plus to it, but uh yeah, you

[23:12] feel a pit in your stomach and that one

[23:13] you feel a pit in your stomach that is

[23:15] lonely, too. I bet you are kind of by

[23:17] yourself and signing that piece

[23:19] and a massive deal like that is closed

[23:21] by you sign. Do you keep the pen

[23:23] like that?

[23:24] You don't know where the pen is?

[23:25] No. Um, I want to talk a little bit

[23:27] about New York and then and then the UK

[23:29] more specifically. I mean, there's lots

[23:31] going on in New York at the moment

[23:33] around the edges and more significantly.

[23:35] Obviously, you built this fantastic new

[23:36] building. Are you committed to New York

[23:38] City regardless or are there certain

[23:42] things that the mayor or the governor

[23:43] could do that would force you to say too

[23:45] much?

[23:46] Yeah, I I I wouldn't make it binary like

[23:47] that. I've pointed out and I've actually

[23:50] told this the mayor is that our

[23:51] headcount in New York has gone from

[23:53] 35,000 to 26,000 in the last 20 years

[23:57] and in Texas has gone from like 11,000

[23:59] to 35,000.

[24:01] And it's it's where's it attractive to

[24:03] do business? Why are you doing business

[24:04] there? Where do people want to live? So

[24:06] it's not just the taxes, but it is the

[24:08] taxes. It's the medical. It's the

[24:10] hospitals. It's the social life. It's

[24:11] the commute. It's the housing. And you

[24:14] know if a good if a mayor wants to do a

[24:15] good job they have to be thinking about

[24:17] all that because they have to compete

[24:18] you know and you go way back you know

[24:20] New York City there are a lot of comp

[24:22] there weren't as many competitive cities

[24:24] now there are a lot of wonderful I love

[24:25] London you know it's a competitive city

[24:27] so you have choices and people are going

[24:29] to vote not because of their ideology

[24:31] but for the for their family or their

[24:33] pocketbook or their uh or they prefer

[24:36] the lifestyle the weather or the parks

[24:37] or whatever it is. And so uh you know if

[24:40] governments do the wrong thing it will

[24:42] work adversely. You see that happening

[24:43] in state after state and you see the

[24:45] adverse effects in places like Texas.

[24:48] They're open to business. They have low

[24:49] tax rates, low individual tax rates and

[24:51] that's quite great universities, you

[24:53] know, graduating great kids. Um, you

[24:55] know, easy for you to buy a house and

[24:57] have a family. Uh, and those things

[25:00] matter because not just you, it's your

[25:01] what your people want, what the options

[25:03] are. And so, um,

[25:04] and on the UK, what's your message to

[25:07] the new prime minister, Andy Bernham?

[25:09] I don't know him. I I would say the same

[25:11] thing.

[25:12] I want him to succeed. I want to see the

[25:14] UK thrive. I want London to succeed. I'd

[25:17] like London to be our home for a long

[25:18] period of time. It's been a wonderful

[25:19] home for us. But the UK, like everybody

[25:22] else, and like my own country, so you

[25:24] know, don't yell at me and tell me I'm a

[25:26] angry American. If we don't do the right

[25:29] things, you know, around immigration and

[25:31] taxation and regulation and healthcare

[25:33] and affordability, affordability is not

[25:35] a Democrat or Republican issue or or

[25:37] taking care of our lower paid citizens.

[25:40] You need a strong economy to do that. A

[25:42] strong economy will benefit all of your

[25:44] citizens, you know, and and just travel

[25:47] around the world and look what happens

[25:48] when, you know, when bad policies muck

[25:51] up a country. So, you know, the the the

[25:54] new chances can be good policies that

[25:56] actually cause growth. And growth, good

[25:58] policies are free and growth is the best

[26:00] antidote. Growth also helps the lowest

[26:02] paid people the most. Sometimes you look

[26:05] like you're doing a policy that's in

[26:06] benefit of a big company or wealthy

[26:08] people, but it's growth which will drive

[26:10] it for everybody and and and it also

[26:12] creates the wealth of the nation that

[26:14] you can use to fix schools and roads and

[26:16] hospitals and all of that. So, you know,

[26:18] I I'm praying that they get policy right

[26:20] and government after government get it

[26:22] wrong and look and look at Europe would

[26:23] be a primary example that, you know,

[26:25] they've been slowly slipping on, you

[26:27] know, most measures of of economic

[26:29] competitiveness and it's a bad idea.

[26:31] Mhm. you know, and it's not and that is

[26:33] not helping the lower paid people, which

[26:35] is what, you know, people on the left

[26:36] and the right say.

[26:38] One tax that's talked about a lot is the

[26:40] banks levy. Um, it's a 3% extra

[26:43] corporate tax that that other sectors

[26:45] don't have.

[26:46] There's there's two different taxes we

[26:47] have there. Extra. Yes.

[26:48] And and it used to be 8%, Richie Sunn

[26:51] brought it down to 3%. What if that went

[26:53] back up again?

[26:55] It would be one more negative on that

[26:58] bucket of things you got to think about.

[27:00] Look, I I thought I always thought it

[27:01] was wrong. You know, JP Morgan did not

[27:04] damage the UK and I called the

[27:05] chancellor at the time. Uh did not

[27:08] damage the UK. We're a great citizen

[27:09] there. We hire people there. We want to

[27:11] be bigger there. We train people there.

[27:13] We hire veterans there. We have programs

[27:15] of people. We have medical all of our

[27:16] people get medical and all this stuff

[27:18] like that. And I just thought lack

[27:20] principle to punish a company. It had

[27:22] nothing to do with the crisis. Didn't

[27:24] cause the crisis. And it's still there

[27:26] 20, you know, what it six 17 years

[27:28] later. Is that fair to is that fair to a

[27:30] shareholder? I mean, it may sound great,

[27:31] you know, tax the banks, but it's $5

[27:33] billion that my share is paid uh on that

[27:36] extra tax and you know, I just I just

[27:39] think things like that have adverse

[27:40] consequences. So, if a government

[27:42] decides to do it, there's nothing I can

[27:43] do, but it will over time cause

[27:46] decisions made that they may not like.

[27:47] The new Canary Wolf building you

[27:49] announced the day after Rachel Reed's

[27:51] last budget when she didn't put that up,

[27:53] would you U-turn on that building?

[27:55] Well, that's be that's again, it's a

[27:57] binary. I wouldn't make I don't know

[27:59] what I do. I wouldn't make a binary

[28:00] decision like that. I thought Rachel did

[28:01] a great job, by the way. Um I want

[28:05] London to be our happy home for a long

[28:07] time. I I would I would be very cautious

[28:09] if I was a government thinking that

[28:11] penalizing any company, you know, out of

[28:14] the ordinary is a good thing for that

[28:16] country. and and what they would what

[28:18] they should have in in my view is a

[28:21] competitive tax system that's consistent

[28:25] and conducive to capital formation

[28:27] that'll drive a country drive the growth

[28:29] of a country. That is what they should

[28:32] do. If you you if you have a

[28:34] uncompetitive tax system, you know,

[28:36] capital leaves your country and if

[28:37] capital leaves your country, it goes to

[28:39] other countries and and and you see that

[28:41] now you see what is how many companies

[28:43] have delisted from uh you know, London

[28:45] in the last couple years.

[28:47] It's another one bought out yesterday as

[28:49] well. Um a lot um

[28:51] I mean I wouldn't want to see that if I

[28:52] was running a country.

[28:53] Hi guys, it's Wil. I hope you're

[28:55] enjoying this episode. Just a quick

[28:58] reminder to please hit follow or

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[29:02] so that you never miss an episode. And

[29:05] if you've got time, please do give us a

[29:07] fivestar rating and leave us a comment.

[29:10] It really helps other people find the

[29:11] podcast, too. Now, back to the episode.

[29:14] Wanted to move on and talk about

[29:16] bureaucracy. Uh you've you've talked

[29:18] about how bad it was when you joined

[29:21] American Express with with Sandy uh

[29:23] Sandy while and and how you had to over

[29:25] You remember that?

[29:26] I do. I've I've read and listened to

[29:28] pretty much everything you've done the

[29:29] last couple years. So, I have I've gone

[29:30] back over it all. And you now have

[29:34] 320,000 employees, more than you had

[29:37] then. So, just compare and contrast how

[29:40] you how what you found when you got

[29:41] there and how you avoid it today with

[29:44] with a massive company to try and make

[29:46] sure it's not, you know, sprouting up

[29:49] anywhere.

[29:50] Well, first of all, it does start at the

[29:51] top. Not always, but it does start at

[29:53] the top. I always say bureaucracy and

[29:55] and people people know bureaucracy see

[29:57] it. You could see it in how you fill out

[29:59] forms and in taxes and department of

[30:02] motor vehicle and you know getting a

[30:04] certificate of occupancy for your house

[30:05] and people hate it. It's like

[30:06] demoralizing but but I always tell

[30:08] people that the scourge of any company

[30:10] big or small it's not unique to a big

[30:12] companies maybe more unique is

[30:13] bureaucracy complacency and his cousin

[30:16] you know arrogance which is well of

[30:18] course you're doing well and that you're

[30:20] do well forever but that's not true. You

[30:22] know, you can run a great restaurant,

[30:23] you have to do great service, great food

[30:24] every night. And you know, we're in the

[30:26] same boat. We have to compete every day.

[30:28] And so, uh, the way you combat it is you

[30:31] you you're always an honest assessment

[30:33] of yourself. Not yourself as a person,

[30:34] but your products and services, you read

[30:37] customer complaints, you go to the call

[30:38] centers, you talk to your people all the

[30:39] time. You know, you're always finding

[30:41] out uh, you know, you're constantly

[30:42] assessing what's taking place out there,

[30:44] and you're relentless about it. And you

[30:46] try to get your you try to teach your

[30:48] your own team to do the same thing. You

[30:50] know, that's that's why we have bus

[30:51] trips and road trips and you know it's

[30:53] not to show the flag. I want to hear we

[30:55] have the I always say we have these

[30:56] tellers and you know branch managers

[30:58] come on the bus we give them beer and

[30:59] immunity say whatever you want and I and

[31:02] I watch this sometimes where they tell

[31:04] me you know you know Jamie you really

[31:05] want that and like why we do this you

[31:07] know I remember the first time we did

[31:09] faxes for some product and they're

[31:11] they're just dumb things and people

[31:14] accept them and I'm like ah that's

[31:15] terrible we'll fix it for you. I have

[31:17] seen people in my own management teams

[31:19] who were twisting in their chairs. They

[31:21] don't want to hear from someone layers

[31:22] down who report to them how bad it is,

[31:25] you know, and that tells me something

[31:27] about the manager too that you know they

[31:29] probably shouldn't have that kind of job

[31:30] or even have the job. Uh if they can't

[31:32] acknowledge it because you don't know

[31:34] and then directly related to being be

[31:37] curiosity, always learning, always

[31:39] learning, always looking at competition,

[31:41] not so you can so you can compete.

[31:42] Acknowledge where you made mistakes, the

[31:44] good, the bad, the ugly. You know, there

[31:45] a lot of things our competitors did that

[31:47] we could have done like Stripe and we

[31:48] simply didn't. We missed it. I don't say

[31:51] that to flagagulate myself or somebody

[31:53] else. I said it to be an honest

[31:54] assessment about well yeah we may have

[31:56] the biggest payment system in the world

[31:57] but we missed that thing and that thing

[32:00] is really big and really important and

[32:02] why and you learn from why you learn

[32:03] from your mistakes and so uh you have a

[32:05] little heart and humility you know David

[32:08] Novak who I think you know you know

[32:10] recognize people and I I didn't always

[32:12] understand that recognizing people is a

[32:13] form of humility and a form of curiosity

[32:16] because it's saying hey Wolf you did a

[32:18] great job we're going to recognize the

[32:19] job you did is also saying it wasn't me

[32:21] it wasn't that person it was you then do

[32:23] that you recognize it, you know, you uh

[32:25] it it's uh we have those uh anonymous

[32:28] ways to give feedback at at Skype, but

[32:30] that you have to fill them on online and

[32:32] I always get nervous that is it totally

[32:34] anonymous, but I I'm I'm pretty blunt in

[32:36] those. So, I hope that

[32:38] I've always had that problem. And also

[32:39] when I turn my we you have to get a

[32:41] response. I remember I first time I

[32:43] turned on bank one, it was so

[32:45] overwhelmed I I closed it down with an

[32:47] apology. I'm sorry. And we then we

[32:49] started to open up by state just so we

[32:51] can handle it because it's disrespectful

[32:53] to say, you know, give me your input and

[32:55] then never get back to the person what

[32:57] that input might actually be. And so I

[32:59] mean what you learn from it.

[33:00] It's it's funny you mention

[33:02] I still do that where I would ask when I

[33:03] leave a lunch they mention eight things

[33:05] and I'm we're going to follow up every

[33:06] single eight.

[33:07] And you're you're you're also for

[33:09] someone in your position you're very

[33:11] efficient at replying to your emails.

[33:13] Um which I find amazing actually given

[33:16] how uh how busy you must be. Um, I've

[33:19] heard you talk when we talk more broadly

[33:21] about leadership, uh, about the

[33:23] importance of character many, many

[33:25] times, um, across our interviews and and

[33:27] just publicly. And I had always sort of

[33:30] assumed in my mind that's a Jaime

[33:32] Diamond thing. He puts character right

[33:34] at the top of his list when he's when

[33:35] he's trying to judge people. But I was

[33:37] recently reading my friend, your friend

[33:39] as well, Andrew Osawkins new book 1929

[33:42] and I hadn't realized that it was also

[33:44] something that your founder does or did

[33:48] sorry John John Pierre point Morgan that

[33:51] he put character above all else

[33:53] and this above all else's character.

[33:54] Yeah. And I I is that something

[33:56] therefore that you adopted having

[33:58] studied JP Morgan or or is it

[34:00] coincidence?

[34:01] It's coincidence but I think a lot of

[34:03] people would say that's the highest

[34:04] thing. Now, you have to be honest what

[34:06] you mean by that. Cuz people, you know,

[34:07] a lot of these things people say the

[34:09] word, but they don't act on the word.

[34:10] They put in jobs, but they say

[34:12] it's all about character. And you learn

[34:14] more as you get on like what it means.

[34:16] Like, would you promote someone to a big

[34:18] job that you wouldn't have your child

[34:20] report to? That tells you something

[34:21] about would you want to report to him,

[34:24] you know, and it tells you like how are

[34:25] you making how actually you making those

[34:27] decisions, you know, if they're the best

[34:28] salesperson or something like that. So,

[34:30] no, but I brought back the the peer pun

[34:32] thing. So when I came I saw that

[34:35] somewhere I said put that back. That's a

[34:36] that's a big thing you know. Um so we

[34:39] now use it as a as a a key point and um

[34:42] and it's also and it's really important

[34:43] in banking because you know in some ways

[34:45] we're like a financial partner. I mean

[34:47] it's not like you're just buying a piece

[34:49] of steel. You know you you we we have to

[34:52] know you know how you act in tough

[34:54] times. What kind of person are you? How

[34:56] do you treat your employees? all these

[34:58] little things that you wouldn't normally

[35:00] put on a credit form, but they're

[35:02] different forms of credit, you know, do

[35:04] you want to be a part of that person? Do

[35:06] you want to play on a team with them? I

[35:08] love team sports because you see when

[35:09] team sports when they are humming, man,

[35:11] they you see them working together.

[35:13] That's the form of character. They may

[35:14] not even like each other as opposed to

[35:16] another team where you know they hate

[35:18] each other and you can see that they you

[35:19] know they they won't pass the ball and

[35:22] uh all these different forms of how you

[35:24] analyze these things. You mentioned

[35:25] David Novak there and I was listening to

[35:28] your appearance on his podcast a few

[35:29] years ago and you were talking about he

[35:32] was asking you uh given all the success

[35:34] that we've touched on like how how do

[35:36] you make sure you don't get a big head

[35:38] and I was really struck because almost

[35:41] counterintuitively

[35:43] you felt insecurity in CEOs is often

[35:47] what leads to to them having a big head

[35:49] or the appearance of a big head.

[35:50] That's correct.

[35:51] So expand on that for me a bit. What do

[35:52] you mean by It's just I there's a great

[35:54] quote from John Weinberger in Goldman

[35:56] Sachs who said when some people get a

[35:58] big job some grow into it and some swell

[36:00] into it and what I've seen is that you

[36:03] know what happens the bigger job you get

[36:05] the less you know literally about the

[36:07] job so you're make believe you're in a

[36:10] train area and you run mortgages you're

[36:12] the best mortgage guy in the world you

[36:14] know more about mortgage than anybody

[36:15] else I have to call you up to find out

[36:17] about what's going on today in mortgages

[36:18] and stuff like that maybe that mortgage

[36:20] guy gets promoted to run trading now

[36:22] he's got equities

[36:23] commodities, fixed income, Asia, you

[36:26] know, and all of a sudden he's an expert

[36:28] in mort mortgages, but not in the other

[36:30] ones. And then make believe you get the

[36:31] next job up. Now, now you've got 36

[36:34] functions are pointing to you're an

[36:36] expert in one and you kind of learn

[36:37] five,

[36:38] but all the others are foreign to you

[36:40] and there are different people running

[36:41] these things. So, it it it induces

[36:44] insecurity. And what happens and I've

[36:46] just noticed this with people like some

[36:47] people when they get there they have

[36:49] these innate skills to trust people to

[36:52] get the best out of people to not get

[36:54] embarrassed by not knowing by having fun

[36:57] by being curious and saying god just do

[37:00] that again and let me know if I can help

[37:01] you with as opposed to uh and then the

[37:03] people when they have insecurities they

[37:05] tend to be like friends you know friends

[37:07] of Bob and you know don't he doesn't

[37:10] like that you know it becomes

[37:11] powerpoints you know make them look good

[37:14] uh don't tell them the bad news and that

[37:16] is what causes the problem. And you get

[37:18] that in governments too by with

[37:19] government leaders where you know

[37:21] they're surrounded by people telling

[37:22] them what want to hear uh because

[37:24] they're insecure. Whereas a secure

[37:25] person you you're not going to hurt my

[37:28] feelings by telling me we have a crappy

[37:30] product. I I would probably say, "Well,

[37:32] thank thank I go look because if you're

[37:34] right, I'm gonna thank you for letting

[37:35] me know, you know, uh like I say,

[37:37] customer complaints are are a gift, you

[37:40] know, and when a customer complains, I

[37:42] people often say they're right or

[37:43] wrong." I said, "No, no, look, look for

[37:45] where they might be partially right

[37:46] because very often there's a an element

[37:48] of truth that we should actually do

[37:49] something about even though in general

[37:51] it may not be right." So, I do think

[37:52] insecurity becomes one of those things

[37:54] and then you see the response to it is

[37:56] kind of covering up friends don't

[37:58] embarrass them. you know, reports start

[38:00] being modified to look good as opposed

[38:03] to to undress what's going on in your

[38:05] company. Are you how are you performing

[38:07] with your sees their score? What's your

[38:08] approval rates? What's your you know the

[38:10] all the stuff the customer sees just it

[38:12] starts to disappear. And uh [snorts]

[38:14] are we are we seeing some of that in the

[38:16] White House at the moment? Don't tell

[38:18] them it's not good.

[38:18] I I'm not I can't comment on that. I'm

[38:21] not in the White House so I don't and

[38:23] look there's some very capable people I

[38:24] know there are and so you have to be in

[38:26] the room to find out what people

[38:28] actually doing. So, but but I think any

[38:29] leader should be worried about it. Yeah.

[38:31] It's just an ordinary course.

[38:32] I know. I I know we don't know and

[38:34] there's a lot of things that get

[38:35] exaggerated, but we do sometimes get to

[38:37] see inside the White House. Sometimes we

[38:39] have those cabinet meetings that are

[38:41] recorded.

[38:43] I mean, you know, be frank with us in

[38:46] your board meetings were like that where

[38:47] everyone just said, "Jamie, you're so

[38:49] fantastic. We love the job you're doing.

[38:52] You're the greatest CEO of all time."

[38:53] Would that be a good a good thing to

[38:54] have?

[38:55] I wouldn't mind having it every now and

[38:56] then. No. [laughter] No. I uh I

[38:58] definitely do not have that. We

[38:59] definitely do not do that. Uh uh and

[39:02] we're

[39:02] So it's not ideal. It's not ideal.

[39:04] For me, it's not ideal. I'm not

[39:05] commentating on the White House. For me,

[39:07] it's not ideal. And I'm much more the

[39:10] good, the bad, the ugly. Uh you know,

[39:12] just trying to do the best job type

[39:13] thing. My board does something unique,

[39:15] by the way, which is every single board

[39:17] meeting I leave and they meet without me

[39:20] every for 20 years now. And I and I

[39:22] insisted upon them. It wasn't legal. It

[39:23] wasn't regular. said because uh and then

[39:26] when there are disagreements with people

[39:27] I say okay Wolf you know I'm I'm I tell

[39:30] B we're about to make a decision and

[39:32] Wolf just has a different point of view

[39:34] and I want you to hear it directly

[39:36] because again I'm just trying to do the

[39:37] right thing. I'm not trying to do the

[39:39] thing that I want to do. I want to do

[39:40] the right thing for the company, their

[39:41] clients or their products or services.

[39:43] So um

[39:45] there's another thing just to follow up

[39:46] on this theme. You you said this uh at

[39:49] Ohio State University commencement

[39:52] speech in 2021. You said, "We all stand

[39:54] on the shoulders of those who came

[39:56] before us. Humility is the realization

[39:58] that those who came before paved the

[40:00] way. Never fool yourself into thinking

[40:02] that your success is just your own." We

[40:05] just had the 250th.

[40:08] Do do you think that was enough on

[40:10] display?

[40:12] Uh that respect for the the 249 years

[40:15] beforehand,

[40:18] you know? Uh

[40:20] I it's hard for me to say like I do

[40:22] think you're it's absolutely right that

[40:24] we should have shown it. I think a lot

[40:26] of things did. So if you were here there

[40:28] were documentaries, there were things in

[40:29] TV. There's a lot about Jefferson and

[40:31] Washington, Lincoln and Hamilton and so

[40:34] I think there was some was it enough is

[40:35] a very good question. I don't I think in

[40:37] general in America is not enough. You

[40:39] know we have our constitution which is a

[40:41] legal document but what's really

[40:42] important is it's the embodiment of

[40:44] values and principles that that are more

[40:46] important. life, liberty and the pursuit

[40:49] of happiness. And some of these are

[40:50] British concepts by and the pursuit of

[40:52] happiness was was not happiness the way

[40:54] they mean it today's generation. It was

[40:56] pursuit of something meaningful,

[40:58] purposeful to you. It could be

[40:59] agriculture, could be it could be media,

[41:02] it could be education, it could be

[41:04] finance, something like that. and and uh

[41:06] but then all the other principles, you

[41:07] know, freedom of speech and free

[41:09] religion, freedom of enterprise, uh uh

[41:12] to do what you want, you know,

[41:13] individualism, rugged individualism, uh

[41:15] work ethic, civic responsibility. So, if

[41:18] you read the founding fathers, that was

[41:19] all of it. We definitely do not teach

[41:21] enough that anymore. And we definitely

[41:23] don't teach enough that those values are

[41:25] why millions of people would like to

[41:27] come to this country.

[41:28] Does that mean the country was perfect

[41:29] in its founding day? Of course not. I

[41:31] mean, do we spend a lot of time now

[41:33] talking about, you know, I heard one of

[41:34] our politicians talking about, you know,

[41:36] the company's country was founded on

[41:38] exploitation. I mean, that's absurd. The

[41:42] person obviously doesn't understand

[41:43] anything. But did we treat the black

[41:45] community right? No. Should we

[41:47] acknowledge that and do something about

[41:48] it? Yes. But that doesn't mean that

[41:50] those principles were bad and that we

[41:51] shouldn't support it. And so, we're

[41:53] still the, you know, the the bastion of

[41:55] freedom in the world. And so I I think

[41:57] we should support that, tell people

[41:59] that, educate people about that, and

[42:01] those other responsibilities are real.

[42:04] Like I think it's real for a business to

[42:06] get involved in making society better. I

[42:08] think it's a mistake for us to blindly

[42:10] look at the bottom 20% and act like we

[42:12] can't do anything to help. Didn't cause

[42:15] it. I don't like it when people act

[42:16] like, you know, sometimes JP Morgan

[42:18] caused bad inner city schools. Really,

[42:21] that's I that just is not accurate. But

[42:23] can we help fix them? Absolutely we can.

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[43:14] On the flip side, uh, in terms of

[43:17] respecting politicians, you you at the

[43:18] peak of the financial crisis, you sent

[43:20] Hank Pollson, former rival of yours,

[43:23] Goldman Sachs CEO, then had become

[43:25] Treasury Secretary. He was under a lot

[43:27] of a lot a lot of stick at the time and

[43:30] and you sent him the Teddy Roosevelt

[43:32] quote. It's not the critic that counts,

[43:35] not the man who points out how the

[43:36] strong man stumbles. Uh the credit

[43:39] belongs to the man who's actually in the

[43:40] arena whose face is marred by dust and

[43:42] sweat and blood whose strives valiantly

[43:45] and if he fails at least he fails while

[43:47] daring greatly.

[43:49] With that in mind, do you have great

[43:51] sympathy for politicians?

[43:52] Yeah. So u yeah I do. You know I both

[43:56] mad at them and have sympathy. You know,

[43:57] when we rolled out security resiliency

[43:59] in uh in London, you know what I said to

[44:01] the whole crowd, all Brits in the room?

[44:03] I said, "We owe you all a great debt of

[44:07] gratitude for standing alone with 40,000

[44:11] dead in in the Battle of Britain, saving

[44:13] the world from that scourge of Nazism

[44:15] for a year and a half by yourselves."

[44:18] Uh, and that is a debt of gratitude.

[44:21] I think politics is a very tough game

[44:25] that and I think those who do it well

[44:27] and try to do it well and I and by and I

[44:29] was with David McCormack yesterday in

[44:31] Philadelphia rolling out some of these

[44:32] programs. The President Trump was there.

[44:34] That's may maybe he thought I was going

[44:35] to see the president and uh uh I greatly

[44:40] value the people who do that. I love the

[44:42] fact he talks to his senator Fetterman

[44:44] the other senator from Pennsylvania over

[44:46] the time. And I think if you look at

[44:48] when I come here, I always remind myself

[44:50] there are a lot of people who want to do

[44:52] the right thing, who care about their

[44:53] country. They may disagree with you, by

[44:55] the way. Some may be more that, but I

[44:57] and I don't disrespect someone's got a

[44:59] different point of view about what might

[45:00] work out there. But that doesn't mean

[45:02] you shouldn't get mad at the hypocrites,

[45:04] the liars, the bums, you know, the

[45:06] self-serving. And there's play of that,

[45:08] too. And if you read history books,

[45:09] there was there was play of that in the

[45:11] original Congress. You know, it wasn't

[45:12] just our Congress that has that. you

[45:14] you've obviously

[45:16] thought about politics at times.

[45:20] Is it a problem that someone like you

[45:23] has ultimately never decided to do it? I

[45:26] guess the link to this question is how

[45:27] do you look at you meet with them all

[45:29] the time? H what's the caliber of G7

[45:32] leaders today compared to you mentioned

[45:35] World War II there, you know, the likes

[45:37] of Church.

[45:37] Yeah. Well, I I didn't I can't compare

[45:39] them directly, but um I I I first of

[45:41] all, you're making a point. I think

[45:42] business leaders should get involved in

[45:44] trying to improve their countries and

[45:45] their societies because they have the

[45:47] knowhow, the knowledge, the capability.

[45:49] It kind of transcends a little bit just

[45:51] their commercial enterprise. But I also

[45:53] remind people that, you know, JP Morgan

[45:55] is not going to be a lot better than our

[45:56] country. So if our country does really

[45:58] badly because we get all these policies

[45:59] wrong, which we are getting wrong all

[46:02] the time now, education policies,

[46:04] certain tax policies, you know, certain

[46:06] immigration policies and all that that

[46:08] that if society does B it, it's bad for

[46:11] all of us. in a million different ways.

[46:12] And so, and so a lot of these government

[46:14] people, they want to do a good job and

[46:16] they need help. And that's not an insult

[46:18] to them. They they don't have the staff.

[46:20] The world is very complex. They often

[46:22] don't have the technology or the

[46:23] research capability or things like that.

[46:25] So, I when they have good faith, I want

[46:27] to do a good job with them. And so,

[46:29] look, I think, you know, I've met a lot

[46:30] of leaders in the world and it's, you

[46:31] know, hard to measure a leader when you

[46:33] have, you know, 45 minute conversation

[46:35] with them. But some are quite

[46:37] exceptional. I mean Mcronone is is

[46:39] exceptional, very smart, very dedicated,

[46:41] very knowledgeable, got a lot of great

[46:42] things done. I know his polling, you

[46:45] know, I know that that's bad feels.

[46:46] Yeah. Yeah. But that's a poll. And you

[46:48] know, I think Storm is quite bright, you

[46:50] know, and um and I'm hoping, you know,

[46:54] that that these European leaders get

[46:55] together to form a coalition willing to

[46:57] start to make the change that Europe

[46:58] needs to make. And uh I also think the

[47:01] business community can be a lot more

[47:02] organized in Europe that you need a you

[47:04] need a British roundt business roundt a

[47:08] stronger European that takes positions

[47:10] to that aid and abet the growth of their

[47:13] countries or EU in this case uh for the

[47:16] benefit of the people of those countries

[47:18] not for their own tax benefits you know

[47:19] and and so like I'll give you one the

[47:22] capital markets union the savings union

[47:24] you know it may sound boring to some of

[47:26] the population that could incent growth

[47:28] and if who had it. It actually would be

[47:30] bad for JP Morgan because they'll be

[47:32] better competitors, but I know it's

[47:34] better for Europe.

[47:35] I'm in favor of doing better for Europe.

[47:37] That was better for JP Morgan and it'll

[47:39] make them better tougher competitors

[47:40] than the United States, but so be it.

[47:42] I mean, and too often business uses the

[47:45] regulatory legal stuff to actually block

[47:47] competitors. That's a bad idea, too.

[47:49] In many of our conversations, we've

[47:51] talked about, you know, what might

[47:53] happen uh if if you wanted to go into

[47:55] politics, and you've kind of ruled it

[47:56] out more clearly now. Do you ever pause

[47:59] to think about the value you personally

[48:02] add to JP Morgan Chase? I mean, clearly,

[48:05] as we we've already reflected on, you're

[48:07] not the founder, but do you accept that

[48:10] you have a founder-like effect on the

[48:13] company's performance, on the company's

[48:16] share price? You're not JP Morgan

[48:18] yourself himself, but you are Mr. JPM

[48:20] Chase.

[48:20] I I I try to do the best I can. Yes. So

[48:23] every now and then I get called JP

[48:25] Diamond.

[48:26] But look, I'm not a I'm not a founder,

[48:28] but yes, I this is an unbelievable

[48:30] company. I'm proud to be here. Whenever

[48:32] I travel the world, I remind people we

[48:34] bank, cities, schools, states,

[48:36] hospitals. I'm really proud and and we

[48:38] try to do the best wherever we can.

[48:39] We're respected most places. Uh and that

[48:42] that's a hell of a thing. And then I

[48:43] think this company also has great

[48:45] impact, positive impact on society, you

[48:48] know, through our skills effort and our

[48:49] hiring veterans efforts and our SRRI

[48:52] effort. Uh and then we do much more you

[48:54] know than people don't see around you

[48:55] know policies and states and things like

[48:57] that. So uh

[48:59] if you left what

[49:01] well one day I would be gone right like

[49:02] yeah but but if you left the company

[49:04] what would it do to the share price? 10%

[49:06] down on the day 20% down.

[49:07] No I don't think so. I think it'll be

[49:09] different by the time I unless I'm hit

[49:11] by a bus but I think it'll be by the

[49:13] time it'll be you know probably

[49:14] organized thoughtful not not a

[49:17] surprising event for people. So

[49:18] what what aspect of the way you run the

[49:21] bank do you think will be hard to

[49:23] emulate? I mean presumably you would

[49:25] accept that whoever succeeds you has to

[49:27] has to do it their way. They can't try

[49:29] and copy you.

[49:30] They can't we're all different you know

[49:31] and uh look I I would that's why I say

[49:35] you know someone asked me recently about

[49:36] that they said what what do you what are

[49:38] you looking for like what's strains like

[49:40] technology or AI and I just think that's

[49:42] a false thing to look at. I think what

[49:44] you what you want is someone who's got

[49:46] work ethic, openness, curiosity, earns

[49:49] the trust of people, you know, can

[49:51] really work hard, can have empathy at a

[49:53] deep level and in many different ways,

[49:56] enough IQ to make sure the detail

[49:57] analysis done. They don't have to do it,

[49:59] make sure it's done. So, they have to be

[50:00] kind of disciplined like a little bit of

[50:02] a military discipline otherwise doesn't

[50:04] work. But then those, you know, the

[50:05] heart, I mean, do you actually take care

[50:07] of people? Do they see you actually do I

[50:09] fire customers who've treated our people

[50:11] really badly? I will not put up with

[50:13] that. And so, and that once you do

[50:15] something like that, filter through the

[50:16] company. We we you know, we pay our

[50:18] lower paid people more to make up for

[50:20] their med for their medical insurance.

[50:22] And we've hired 14,000 vets. Uh we try

[50:25] to be good citizens in every community

[50:27] we do business in. Uh and so we we're

[50:31] put the heart, curiosity, grit, like you

[50:34] better have you better have a little

[50:36] grit and a little bit of courage and you

[50:37] better be able to say no. Like because

[50:40] you know people say to me you've got 20

[50:42] you got to decide by the end of the day.

[50:43] I said well that's simple then the

[50:44] answer is no. I'm not going to be put

[50:46] put in a position we have to make a

[50:48] stupid decision quickly and so um uh but

[50:52] we have a lot of people have this wide

[50:53] bucket of skills and obviously their

[50:55] bucket will be different how they

[50:56] execute them will be different but they

[50:58] have the skills.

[50:59] Is your successor definitely going to be

[51:01] Troy or Doug or could it still be Jen?

[51:05] Well, that's a a I again I wouldn't say

[51:08] Troy and Doug obviously have been put in

[51:09] a position where they're likely

[51:11] successors hit by the bus type of thing.

[51:13] You know, there could be somebody else

[51:14] there.

[51:15] You know, Jen has made it clear that not

[51:17] her preference. So, um and that's the

[51:19] other thing about the job. You know, I I

[51:21] tell people sometimes the closer you get

[51:23] to it, the less they want it,

[51:24] right?

[51:25] I wanted to rewind the clock if I could

[51:26] to the 5th of March 2020. I I remember

[51:29] reporting on this day when it when it

[51:30] crossed. You you nearly died. you you

[51:33] suffered uh a a very a very nearly fatal

[51:37] heart failure but received sudden open

[51:40] heart heart surgery.

[51:43] Did did your life flash before your eyes

[51:46] at that moment? Was it was it that

[51:47] close? Did you look back at JP Morgan

[51:50] Chase and what you built? Yeah, just you

[51:52] know that wasn't nearly as painful as

[51:54] the thing I went through earlier where

[51:55] your life slowly flashes through which

[51:57] to the throat cancer and all the

[51:58] associated

[52:00] radiation and chemo that would knocks

[52:02] the hell out of you. Um, no I knew first

[52:05] I knew what it was an aotic dissection.

[52:07] I knew that a lot of people don't even

[52:08] make it to the hospital and I knew a lot

[52:09] of people get to the emergency room

[52:10] don't make it out of the emergency room.

[52:11] So I I knew at that point in time that

[52:15] you know there might be goodbye. Yeah.

[52:18] and and what stood out for you in the

[52:20] life that you'd led in that moment.

[52:23] I remember

[52:25] uh

[52:29] that I spoke to my wife and I told her

[52:33] call their company and tell them exactly

[52:34] what's happening so they can do what

[52:35] they got to do. Um but I didn't the good

[52:38] news is I didn't I didn't have any great

[52:40] regrets. I I left was would be leaving

[52:43] behind great children, great wife, a

[52:45] great company, you know, I did the best

[52:47] I can. Of course, I made mistakes. Uh I

[52:50] didn't think of that movie defending

[52:52] your life like they show you your

[52:53] stupidest mistakes on a screen and and

[52:56] uh but fortunately I recovered from all

[52:58] that. So

[53:00] absolutely. Um I I guess on the topic

[53:03] though of uh of of family, I mean

[53:08] your job is relentlessly demanding.

[53:12] How hard is it to balance family life at

[53:14] the same time?

[53:14] I am also relentlessly organized. I mean

[53:17] people would be surprised like I return

[53:19] every phone call every every day. My

[53:20] office is magnificent. They know all

[53:22] you. So half of that isn't me. It's like

[53:24] they're just responding. You want to

[53:25] know if you want to come in town? Will

[53:26] you do this? I go to Joe. They respond.

[53:28] So they they take care of the a lot of

[53:31] stuff like that. I and my calendar is I

[53:34] basically do work and personal life. So

[53:37] I don't you know I don't golf. I don't

[53:40] uh um I'm not I don't go to red carpets.

[53:43] I don't go to a lot of black ties. I

[53:45] don't go to you I often meet the family

[53:47] for dinner on a Friday night. All of

[53:48] them like the whole gang of them where

[53:50] we we have a house in Bedford. We all go

[53:51] up there and basically barbecue or hike

[53:53] or swim or something like that. And so

[53:56] uh and that and we still do. I still

[53:57] take our family vacations. And so the

[54:00] kids I used to tell them like know I did

[54:03] travel a lot. They were like you never

[54:04] traveled because they remember that I

[54:06] was devoted to them on most weekends

[54:08] even though I was gone some you know and

[54:10] we had a lot of family dinners. They

[54:11] said a lot more than most people even

[54:13] though I was gone a lot. But I was home

[54:15] you know. I was like okay I'm coming

[54:17] home. We're going to after dinner. Bring

[54:18] your friends. And when they were younger

[54:20] they and moan and complain but

[54:22] they love doing it. We still do it. Um,

[54:25] and you know, that's the best part of

[54:26] life. My daughter, one of them said,

[54:28] "Dad, you you need you need another

[54:29] hobby. You need hobbies." I said, "What

[54:31] do you mean?" I said, "I I'd like and

[54:33] I'm not like into fast cars, per se, but

[54:35] I said, I have I have you. We we eat

[54:38] together. We hike together. We travel

[54:40] together. I love history. I love wine. I

[54:42] love music. You know, I used to love

[54:44] tennis. I can't play anymore because my

[54:46] back, but I said, "Those are my hobbies,

[54:48] you know, and I'm perfectly content with

[54:49] those. I'm not looking for other stuff."

[54:51] Um, I I've always heard you talk. so so

[54:53] warmly and fondly about about your wife

[54:55] and and your kids. And um I did want to

[54:59] pick up on this because I didn't know

[55:00] this beforehand. Um but your your dad

[55:04] would rip out pages of annual reports of

[55:07] companies and and hand it over to you

[55:09] and say, "Value this business. What

[55:11] would you pay for it?" I I didn't know

[55:13] that. So that's one of the the ways you

[55:15] got into this?

[55:15] No. My dad was a stock broker, so I was

[55:17] the of the three boys. He didn't push

[55:19] anyone that way. My older brother was a

[55:20] physicist.

[55:22] a real class physitude for years and my

[55:25] twin brother's an educator. Uh so it

[55:27] wasn't anything but I was interested. I

[55:28] read the papers. I read Graham and Dodd

[55:31] in high school. I was a nerd. I read all

[55:33] of Freud's books in high school. I mean

[55:35] I just always would like taking this

[55:37] stuff in and uh but this is a great

[55:38] exercise. You could still do this

[55:40] exercise and it's I still be humbled by

[55:42] it which is back then annual reports

[55:44] were smaller. you know, they're

[55:45] yeah, 40 page, 30 pages long, but

[55:47] there's always that part where tell you

[55:48] what the price of stock was. And he

[55:50] would give it give me an industry you

[55:51] might know something about, like a

[55:53] restaurant or something, and say, "Okay,

[55:56] look at this. Look at the history. Read

[55:57] the annual report. Study the industry if

[55:58] you want. What would you pay for the

[56:00] stock?

[56:02] It's hard. It's it is brutally hard, you

[56:04] know, and then and then you learn also

[56:06] the why like uh you know the accounting

[56:08] is bad or the people are bad or there

[56:10] other there are other reasons people

[56:11] will not pay but you think oh it's worth

[56:13] 13 times earnings and the market has it

[56:14] at seven or or 25 and so it's it's

[56:18] humbling. It's it's one of the many

[56:21] reasons I only did finance for five

[56:23] years and switched to media. I just have

[56:25] to comment on it now and I don't have to

[56:27] come up with the answer each each time.

[56:29] Um Jamie, we're basically out of time.

[56:31] So I just want to end with a question uh

[56:33] that we ask all our guests, you know,

[56:35] which is an overriding piece of advice

[56:36] for our listeners. Often it's investment

[56:38] advice, but but for you perhaps better

[56:40] to ask, you know, the overriding piece

[56:43] of career advice for for for our

[56:45] listeners who are ambitious and hungry

[56:47] to to do well.

[56:49] Oh yeah, I'll do the best I can. I mean,

[56:50] look, they're the basic work hard, but

[56:52] the ones that people miss a little bit.

[56:55] Learn learn. You can only learn two

[56:57] ways. by reading. So read a lot and

[57:00] read, you know, labor and uh

[57:03] conservative. Read Democrat and

[57:04] Republican. Read George Will and David

[57:07] Brooks and Tom Freriedman. Don't don't

[57:09] get button holed in your brain like uh

[57:11] to one thing. Read a lot of history.

[57:13] History itself turn teaches you a lot

[57:15] about what can go right, what can go

[57:17] wrong, what people do in tough times

[57:18] like Lincoln or Nelson Mandela, how

[57:21] people misbehave in good times. I mean

[57:23] you read Andrew Russin's book. you know

[57:25] they they're echoes of arrogance and

[57:27] leverage and greed and you do actually

[57:29] learn from that and you learn you can

[57:31] you can learn from other people's

[57:32] mistakes which is a better way to learn

[57:33] than making the same mistake and uh and

[57:36] then you learn with people and that's

[57:38] that's a better one and a harder one who

[57:40] are they like don't have a natural you

[57:43] know people are different than you they

[57:44] are smart a different way they're verbal

[57:46] they they're I mean there's one guy

[57:49] pointed out to me worked at bank one

[57:51] years ago and he said you know the guy

[57:52] he's a sales guy in our one of our

[57:54] trading desk and he said that's one of

[57:56] the most decorated living American

[57:58] soldiers you know I didn't know you know

[58:00] and you learn all the time and a bus ask

[58:03] people about their past their histories

[58:04] you'd be shocked what they you know if

[58:06] they trust you and they open up to you

[58:07] and uh uh develop your EQs you know EQ

[58:11] is you know which you have in media but

[58:13] do do you have empathy do you understand

[58:15] when someone's hurting do you put your

[58:17] hand you know some people and have a bad

[58:19] day trading the boss puts his hand on

[58:21] and you know he's like get out of here

[58:23] you know the other boss might put his

[58:24] hand and say it's okay. It happens to

[58:27] everybody. You know, go home and have a

[58:29] drink. And and so, um, you know, are you

[58:32] good at communicating? Like, you know,

[58:34] you know, Jeff Bezos has people write

[58:35] those six-page memos. A lot of people

[58:37] are sloppy as hell when it comes to

[58:39] communicating. They'd rather just

[58:40] pontificate than say, I have three

[58:43] things I want to describe you, A, B, and

[58:44] C, or three options, and and here's how

[58:46] I weigh the options. Here's why I'd pick

[58:48] B and not C. And then you have a

[58:50] conversation about it. And so um and

[58:52] that's a discipline by the way. Have

[58:54] some kind of discipline. Oh, and a very

[58:56] important one. You have to take care of

[58:58] your mind, your body, your spirit, your

[58:59] soul, your friends, and your family. You

[59:02] should look at that as not a formal job,

[59:04] but it's part of what you should do. And

[59:05] you know, and you know, a lot of people,

[59:07] all of us, I look, I made a lot of these

[59:08] mistakes. So this isn't saying I didn't

[59:10] make them, but hopefully you learn when

[59:12] you make them is that uh uh a lot of

[59:16] people they start their early careers,

[59:17] you know, they're under a lot of

[59:19] pressure. early career, they got

[59:20] married, they had kids, they and they

[59:22] start neglecting pieces, you know, and

[59:24] you know, sometimes like I tell some

[59:26] when I was younger, when I was younger

[59:28] and we all had young kids and some of

[59:30] the fathers would complain, but they

[59:31] didn't have enough time for the kids. I

[59:32] see, but you go play golf every Saturday

[59:34] and Sunday.

[59:36] Stop playing golf. Stop watching three

[59:38] football games the weekends, you know,

[59:40] learn how to do what you should do, like

[59:42] take a kid to play tennis or [music] and

[59:43] have a something you do with them that's

[59:45] just between the two of you or

[59:46] something. Jamie, I know we're out of

[59:48] time and I don't, as you said, you're

[59:50] very organized, so I don't want to be

[59:51] the reason to make you late for for your

[59:53] next meeting. It has been an absolute

[59:55] pleasure to catch up with you today.

[59:56] Thank you so much for your time.

[59:57] Pleasure is mine, Rob. Always good

[59:58] seeing you,

[59:59] Jamie. Cheers.

[01:00:00] Great [music] to see you.

[01:00:01] Great to see you, too. Thank you.

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