# Is a Fall Correction Coming? Tom Lee's H2 Outlook

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QABpbsCJRLU

[00:00] I mean, Tom, you you see the activity in the microns and the snowflakes and and you think what as you watch this market?
[00:06] Well, I I think it was a great conversation with Liz, but one thing to keep in mind is now that Q1 earnings is behind us, people thought S&P earnings would be $70.
[00:14] It's going to come in at 80.
[00:17] So, that's a $10 beat.
[00:22] That's $40 annualized.
[00:24] That means that this added the upside to earnings is somewhere between 800 and a,000 points of S&P upside.
[00:29] I think the entire rally since April could be explained by just the Q1 earnings beat.
[00:37] You're calling for a three-phase market still.
[00:39] Explain to our viewers again what what what that means.
[00:43] Yes. Our base case for this year, which we expected to be a challenging year and it feels like it, is we'd rally towards 7,300 initially.
[00:51] Now we're above that, but I think we're almost 76.
[00:55] Yeah. And I think we can get to maybe 77, as high as 77, but I think then
[01:01] We're going to digest a lot of things until October.
[01:03] And that's a new Fed share.
[01:05] It's the energy shock that Liz talked about, especially shortages of petroleum products and lubricants.
[01:12] You know, Autoation talked about it.
[01:14] And the third is the IPOs of SpaceX opening anthropic that when the unlocks happen, that's a lot of extra supply.
[01:20] So, I think that could pressure stocks in a way that feels like a bare market, but then post midterms, I think we rally strongly and and 2027 is a year where we might see some of the best returns we've ever seen in our lifetime.
[01:35] All right, Brian.