# Has Bitcoin Hit The Bottom?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP9AEulCw9g

[00:00] July 29th when we have the FOMC, are they going to raise rates?
[00:04] There's a possibility, a good possibility, it's like 35 to 40%, that they will.
[00:10] If they don't, then I think Bitcoin will be above 70,000 when that time comes because I think people are going to start factoring in the fact.
[00:18] What's going on guys?
[00:19] Today we have a great conversation with Jordy Visser.
[00:21] We talk about what's going on with the AI midcycle slowdown, why he thinks that's over.
[00:24] Why is he getting excited about Bitcoin?
[00:25] He thinks that the bottom is forming.
[00:27] On top of that, we talk about robotics, commodities, and what public stocks Jury's getting interested in.
[00:32] This conversation is full with lots of nuance, and we cover some of the big stories, things like Apple, and what's going on with Meta or XAI and Grock.
[00:40] So, you're going to enjoy it.
[00:41] Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser.
[00:43] All right, Jordy.
[00:44] This week, Grock and Facebook both made very big announcements about their uh ambitious plans when it comes to AI.
[00:51] Looks like we have a price war on our hands because both of them started talking about affordability for what they can actually produce.
[00:56] Uh what's your take as to these two kind of trying to make a comeback and and take over OpenAI and Anthropic?
[01:03] Uh so, [snorts] ooh, speechless [laughter] now.
[01:06] I was trying to think of the best way to kind of present this.
[01:10] I really am believing that uh we have to start separating everything going on in AI and the models into two categories.
[01:21] I don't think anyone anymore can catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI and what their plans are.
[01:29] Now, let me just kind of put that into context.
[01:31] I've spent a lot more time on consumer agents.
[01:34] I've spent a lot more time on what these models are trying to do and what everyone's kind of going for.
[01:40] They're all trying to get some kind of revenue, all of them.
[01:44] So, when Meta talks about the cloud ambitions, they need some revenue coming in the door now.
[01:49] And if your business is going to be consumer agents, advertising, stuff like that and personal AI assistance where which is where I am now putting officially Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon.
[02:01] Now again, not.
[02:06] Completely, but they all have that part of the puzzle.
[02:08] Amazon, Google, and Microsoft obviously not only have the personal assistant, the co-pilot side, they also have the cloud business.
[02:18] Obviously, we have cloud business now where we're renting out compute for SpaceX.
[02:22] So, I think rather than get into the model side, which again, these models are just going to be commoditized.
[02:29] Uh, it's what you're aiming to get your revenues from.
[02:34] And clearly, OpenAI and Anthropic are in a war with the enterprise side.
[02:40] And then everyone else to me is kind of making sure that they're also spending in other areas where they need this.
[02:46] And obviously SpaceX, you know, Tesla eventually, they've got different ambitions for how they're going to use AI.
[02:52] So I think I'm not really looking at the price wars as anything more that number one, the media is just kind of getting into this, oh, the token index is going down.
[03:00] It means we're going to have problems.
[03:03] I think everyone's just reexamining where their ROIC is going to come from, and they're.
[03:07] Strategically moving their decision-making towards that process.
[03:11] I love when we uh maybe don't disagree, but have slightly different takes on this.
[03:14] Um, in building Sylvia, I think you and I have talked in the last couple of weeks about, you know, the mandate from heaven 18 months ago.
[03:20] Everyone use AI.
[03:22] Now all of a sudden people start looking at the uh token prices or the the compute, you know, cost on a monthly basis was skyhigh.
[03:29] They all start cutting that.
[03:31] But a lot of what people have been doing both, you know, what we've been doing at Sylvia, but also in other companies I've talked with, they essentially were changing the architecture of how they use the models.
[03:41] So it wasn't they were changing the model.
[03:42] It was just hey we don't want to ping the model for if you ask what the date is or you know that type of stuff.
[03:47] Right now I think that we've kind of graduated past that and what we're actively looking at and I think a lot of other people are looking at is how do you actually start to route queries to different models based on the complexity or the compute need of that query.
[04:02] And so this feels like an area where you're going to see a significant drop off in the compute cost of these companies in.
[04:08] Terms of what they're spending.
[04:10] And the reason why that becomes interesting is then it opens up this whole open-source thing.
[04:13] And so to me, the Facebook and XAI announcements around cost is basically them trying to position themselves to say, "Hey, maybe you don't need to go to Chinese open source or look for American open source."
[04:24] What if you could use one of these closed source models, but do it at a much cheaper rate?
[04:29] It's almost like they're acknowledging the fact that all of these companies are now becoming very cost-conscious on this.
[04:34] I don't know if it'll work.
[04:35] Like I don't know if they'll actually drive more adoption, but it seems odd that two different companies who probably are not sharing their plans with each other in the same week come out and they're leading with, hey, this is a cost-effective way to get super intelligence, you know, via the model, right?
[04:52] Yeah.
[04:52] So, I I I don't agree with you, so we'll keep going.
[04:54] Um I the part I agree with is the fact that and and I I put together a visual because a bunch of people reached out and asked me the question on from a variety of angles on this point and then I had some people.
[05:08] That I've known a long time in the tech side that are all bearish on this going, "Oh, everyone's going to move to cheaper model," and I'm like, that's we got to start to understand where we are.
[05:17] So I'm going to give it to you in a different way.
[05:18] You've probably not heard it this way.
[05:19] Um, and you're looking at it from the angle of Sylvia, which I get.
[05:24] In my opinion, having managed hundreds of people over the years, um, you bring in a resume and you don't need to hire the most expensive people throughout your firm for every job.
[05:35] Jobs are now finally getting delegated to the models that make sense.
[05:39] Meaning 100 IQ might be enough for something if it does if you don't need it quickly.
[05:47] So, it's getting back to the way I look at aggregate payrolls, which is hours worked, then you've got hourly earnings.
[05:54] So, and how many people you're employing, that is the aggregate payroll.
[05:58] And I think every workforce is figuring out these models at the very high end; they're super high IQ, they're very cheap.
[06:07] And Dylan Patel gave an interview.
[06:09] That I listened to today on Wisdom Tree.
[06:12] It's a great podcast.
[06:13] I highly recommend.
[06:13] He talked about his spend.
[06:15] So, this is Dylan Patel from Semi analysis.
[06:17] Very sophisticated.
[06:17] His spend went from $100,000 allin for his firm as of uh December last year.
[06:29] It's now 11 million ARS as he said, annualized revenue spend.
[06:33] Now, what he talked about as the importance of that is he's not changing it.
[06:38] He's not looking to get it done.
[06:40] He said in some cases because the productivity is expanding he's able to generate more revenues.
[06:46] I think every business is going to be different.
[06:48] I think for the enterprises that had no usage for them whatsoever they're figuring out where they should be making the spend and in some ca in every case they will be having workflows that are using cheaper models open source possibly.
[07:02] Then you're going to have more expensive high IQ making decisions where they're very.
[07:09] Effective and very cost effective because they do the speed in one-tenth or 1/100th the time that those workflows do.
[07:16] So it just depends on where it is.
[07:19] The end result is going to be a mixture of all these different models.
[07:21] Completely agree we were always going to end up there.
[07:23] But I think one of the things that's been challenging is that since Opus 4.5 the model intelligence for coding agents just keeps getting better and better.
[07:31] But the deployment from enterprises just started and so they spent the first six months actually learning how much the spend would be.
[07:41] Now they're going to start going through a slight readjustment.
[07:43] Talente is obviously out there promoting the fact that you don't, you know, they're going another angle.
[07:49] Oh, you don't want to have this.
[07:50] You don't want to be exposed.
[07:52] They're giving all the negatives to having your own models.
[07:54] I think we're in the price discovery phase for everything.
[07:57] The models are going to keep getting more efficient.
[07:59] They're going to keep getting cheaper.
[08:00] They're going to keep getting smarter.
[08:01] I think there's going to be a mixture of both, but I don't think this is going to affect the overall spend.
[08:06] I think adoption and usage is going up significantly.
[08:10] Dramatically each day.
[08:13] Yeah.
[08:13] And maybe as a nuance to it, I actually think that the number of tokens consumed will continue to grow.
[08:19] So, I agree with that.
[08:21] But I think that what companies are trying to figure out, at least what we're trying to figure out, is how do you consume more tokens but spend less money?
[08:27] And I think what we're starting to see is that, you know, if you go hit 4.7 or 4.8 or, you know, whatever, and someone's asking what is the date, not only is there a cost associated with it, which obviously is a like a pain point for the company, but there's a big latency.
[08:43] And so it's actually like a bad experience for the user versus if you can, you know, kind of hit a lightning fast open source model, make sure it's accurate, etc., then it becomes somewhat interesting.
[08:53] Um, but some companies don't care, right?
[08:56] They don't care about the cost.
[08:58] Maybe Dylan Patellis is like, "Look, I'll spend $50 million because every dollar that I spend, I'm getting back $10 in revenue."
[09:05] Then, you know, it kind of doesn't matter, right?
[09:06] Yeah.
[09:07] And that's the point is I.
[09:10] The way this weeds out the bad companies.
[09:12] And I think his exact quote was if you're not spending more money every year, you're going out of business.
[09:18] Like if you're trying to optimize based on I don't want to spend X amount of dollars and you're cutting back on your AI spend, it means you're going out of business.
[09:27] And I happen to agree with that.
[09:29] Meaning your budget for AI should be expanding every single year.
[09:33] No questions asked.
[09:35] It should absolutely be going up.
[09:38] And that is the only way you're going to survive as a business.
[09:39] That makes companies that are startups have a huge advantage.
[09:42] And that's why semi analysis is very different than say the se you know they cover data centers they cover semi they cover semiconductors they cover the entire AI buildout.
[09:50] If you're Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley you've got a huge payroll you have a huge thing you're going to have a different approach than a company that's just starting was only spending $100,000 a year on AI in December.
[10:03] Yeah, that makes sense.
[10:04] Um what about Apple?
[10:06] Apple obviously made the Siri announcement um kind of an AI Siri integration and then they also announced.
[10:11] That they're going to have to increase prices because of, uh, memory.
[10:12] What do you think's happening with that business?
[10:16] I actually, so last week, uh, because I've been spending so much time on Meta and because I've, I, so I listen to more podcasts, uh, with Meta involved.
[10:28] I listened to one with Alex Cananteritz, uh, this week; he had on the CTO from Meta, and I'll be covering that in the YouTube.
[10:36] Whenever there's a story that's going around that I'm trying to figure out what's behind it.
[10:41] They're getting into cloud.
[10:43] They're saying the agentic world is not at where they thought it would be.
[10:45] Well, then I got to go look up.
[10:47] So, I start doing a ton of research on consumer agents.
[10:51] And this is the way I want to break it down for people as I get into the Apple discussion.
[10:54] So far, all we've done is coding agents.
[10:57] And I want people to understand that that is basically the language of AI.
[11:00] So we're using more coding agents and that agentic side where the workflows are getting longer, they're getting more complex, they need some kind of memory.
[11:12] We've we've seen token usage go up exponentially.
[11:14] Consumer agents are going to make it have another move higher.
[11:20] And in listening to Meta multiple times and people talk about it, the complexity with consumer agents and what has to go on, the commerce side, the hey, book me a trip to Italy.
[11:32] Here's what I care about.
[11:34] That's far more complicated than build me this spreadsheet, build me this model.
[11:38] You have to do a lot more things.
[11:40] You have to visit a lot more sites.
[11:42] It takes a lot more compute.
[11:45] So the step function of compute is going to go exponentially when these guys can solve this.
[11:49] The reason the Apple thing is interesting is the same thing with Meta because Google, Amazon, Amazon has Alexa, Google has personal intelligence.
[11:59] Apple which is trying to get Siri to work and then Meta which is trying to monetize Facebook, Instagram, everything they have in some way with advertisements but also with AI combined in as well as all these places having some kind of hardware.
[12:12] Again, Alexa, uh.
[12:15] The phone, you go through it, everyone has hardware out of this group.
[12:19] So the question is, think about the how difficult it is that wow opus 4.8 8 4 point.
[12:24] We've got Fable 5, but yet Siri still doesn't work.
[12:26] Alexa still doesn't work.
[12:28] How's that possible?
[12:31] Well, the complexity of what they're trying to solve is impossible.
[12:32] I was in um my Tesla using Grock again this week.
[12:38] And Grock in a Tesla is phenomenal.
[12:41] The latency is is is very good.
[12:44] Why can't they do this with Siri?
[12:47] Well, the car is on all the time.
[12:49] I'm just driving in it.
[12:49] If you had your phone open all the time, you could converse with chat GPT.
[12:51] It would work.
[12:54] So, I think the most interesting thing with Apple is the take that I normally have.
[12:57] It sold off and made all-time highs when they announced Siri personal intelligence and they showed what it was able to do.
[13:05] You had some people saying it was horrible.
[13:07] You had a lot of people saying it was shockingly good.
[13:09] Then they had the memory price side.
[13:11] Okay, memory prices are going higher.
[13:14] We're going to have to.
[13:15] Raise prices.
[13:18] The stock got hit both of those days.
[13:19] On the Siri day, it made all-time highs and sold off.
[13:21] And then it sold off on the memory side, leaving it down more than 10% off the highs.
[13:27] And then with no news, it went right back up to the highs.
[13:29] This is not a cheap stock.
[13:32] This tells me this is a bullish reaction to bad news.
[13:35] And I like looking into things.
[13:38] I think the market and particularly the very smart people are starting to look ahead to the next 6 months.
[13:44] So, this is the first warning I'm going to give to people.
[13:45] Uh, the infrastructure trade was a great six-month trade.
[13:49] I still think you're going to make a lot of money being along the receivers or the the people getting the money on the infrastructure buildout, but it's not going to be as easy.
[13:58] So, I'm calling the the AI midcycle slowdown is over when it comes to terms of I think now everyone's a little bit too negative on the AI buildout side and they're worried about this compute thing.
[14:08] Where I think this is all shifting to is two themes.
[14:10] One is when consumer agents come, you have to.
[14:15] Repric Apple, you have to repric Meta, you have to repric these stocks because the ROIC is going to come through.
[14:21] And I think people are getting more bullish on these companies with the reality that that's coming.
[14:24] The second angle is this is where you start getting into the crypto side because of the agentic commerce.
[14:30] They're linked together.
[14:32] And so I'm looking towards, you know, a year from now, the major story being how did we miss Apple?
[14:36] I'm not convinced in meta yet because it doesn't have the same technical picture, but I am going to watch the hyperscalers much more closely because I think we're getting into a side where the surprise could be that we're moving into consumer agents and away from the coding agents.
[14:51] What do you do with Grock in your Tesla?
[14:54] This was real really more conversational.
[14:56] So, I wanted in fact the irony is I wanted to have conversation about exactly what I just talked about.
[15:02] So, the way that I I use it when I'm driving, especially in Maine, for say an hour and I've just listened to a podcast, I will pause the podcast.
[15:10] I will go to Grock and I will now have a conversation to expand that conversation.
[15:13] It's much better in the.
[15:16] Car than it is walking around with chatt.
[15:18] And the reason is because it's on all the time and the signal is much better inside the car.
[15:23] So, Grock is more humanlike for me having the conversation.
[15:26] And so again, this thing of having a conversation with a really smart person, it's literally, hey, I want to talk about Apple and Meta and consumer agents.
[15:36] And I'll just give you one, you know, [clears throat] one factoid that came out of that.
[15:38] Goldman Sachs had a report out this year saying consumer agents will consume about 30 times 30 times what coding agents will consume from a compute basis.
[15:50] This is why there is no solution to compute.
[15:53] If you think there is excess capacity of compute, you are absolutely wrong.
[16:00] Ladies and gentlemen, I'm a software guy, but every once in a while, I come across a piece of hardware that I just simply can't live without.
[16:05] And that's plaid for me.
[16:06] Now, now this whole thing is basically a hedge against me losing my memory because when I have all these conversations, I talk to founders, investors, all kinds of people every single day.
[16:16] There's three things that I
[16:17] Always want to take away from the conversation.
[16:20] What I learned, what are the next steps, action items, and then what notes do I need to remember for some period in the future?
[16:25] You can even mark important moments during the discussion so that you can quickly reference them later.
[16:29] Whether it's a founder meeting, an investor call, a podcast interview, or maybe even just want to sit down and talk to your spouse.
[16:34] I could instantly go back and forth and find key insights, decisions, action items that I talked about in that conversation.
[16:41] Over time, every conversation all of a sudden becomes an asset instead of a forgotten moment.
[16:44] And in a world where information is abundant, the ability to retain and leverage knowledge is a very real competitive advantage.
[16:51] That's why Plaude Note Pro caught my attention recently.
[16:52] It's a credit card sized notetaker.
[16:54] Slim, portable, perfectly integrated with my phone.
[16:57] And the part that I love about it is that it automatically captures conversations.
[16:59] It turns it into board ready summaries.
[17:02] You can have structured action items and it does flawless transcription.
[17:04] It is really magical and you should try it out.
[17:07] So go check them out.
[17:09] This hardware has completely changed my life and I think that you'll end up finding it very valuable.
[17:13] So if you want to use Plaude and get the same value out of it that I've gotten out of it, go check them out at plaude.ai/pmp.
[17:19] You can go to plaude.ai/p ai/pom and get 15% off if you use the code pump or just go click on the link in the description.
[17:25] So go to plaud.ai/pmp today.
[17:28] Now when we look at the compute issue, obviously that's one of the big things.
[17:32] People saw uh Meta's announcement, they start getting worried about that.
[17:35] Um we continue to see volatility in a lot of these names.
[17:39] Uh Bloom Energy, now there's a bunch of these short reports that are starting to come out.
[17:45] It almost feels like the people who are pessimistic, they are just waiting to pick their shot and they think that all this stuff is overvalued.
[17:52] Can short sellers make money in a market like this?
[17:55] Like how do you think about the other side?
[17:57] Right?
[17:58] You're bullish on this.
[17:59] I'm bullish on this.
[18:00] Many people are buying these names.
[18:02] What about the other side?
[18:04] Like do they have any uh credible critiques that you think uh people should pay attention to?
[18:09] Well, of course.
[18:10] Listen, let's go back to me um selling out of Micron but still believing the memory trade is going to continue.
[18:16] Um in fact, one of the things just to give people a a preview.
[18:20] Um I
[18:23] Part of the reason I sold out of Micron was because the speculation everywhere was starting to become evident.
[18:28] Um, and again, it was leverage.
[18:33] So when I see leverage forming and obvious in Korea and I see leverage in macro strip strategies and I see leverage in fundamental long short strategies where 6 months ago they were arguing with me on memory already being expensive and now they're bragging about the fact that this has 5 years to go, I just start to reduce the risk and I think there's better places to put my money.
[18:56] Um, and now I have to get my brain around the fact that to buy Micron back, I'm going to have to buy it above where I sold it.
[19:03] There's absolutely no question.
[19:05] Now, I don't have a problem with that because I've been a trader my life.
[19:07] But I do think that there are ways Micron went up to 1300.
[19:10] So, if you sold it at, you know, 1250 and you bought it back at 900, you can trade, you know, bubbles, parabas, and all these things that I've talked about, you will have 30.
[19:23] To 40% corrections.
[19:25] And a lot of these names, we've had some of the largest corrections in the history of their stocks.
[19:28] And that's that's, you know, serious.
[19:30] Samsung uh over a 10-day period was down 20%.
[19:34] Um and that's despite making uh enough money to basically to be more than they've made in their 40-year history.
[19:43] That's what's expected for this year.
[19:45] So, you can have price falls.
[19:47] You can short Bloom Energy.
[19:50] I just think people are making a mistake if they're thinking about this longer term.
[19:53] My general rule is as a macro person, I try to find which way the river is flowing and I'm either in that side of the river going up or I'm just not in the trade.
[20:03] And that's the way I thought about micron.
[20:05] I still think you'll see 4,000 5,000 in micron before this is done.
[20:09] I think it'll be harder to ride it from 1,000 to 5,000 than it was to go from 100 to 500.
[20:13] And that's my general take is I I'm going to trade it more often.
[20:18] I'll get out.
[20:19] I'll get in and I'll look for points.
[20:21] Uh but I do think for people who want to short them,
[20:23] they just have to have a shorter time
[20:24] horizon.
[20:26] You mentioned Samsung. Talk a little bit
[20:27] about them. They reported these like
[20:29] blowout earnings, but they sold off.
[20:31] What What's going on there?
[20:33] Yeah, like I said, I mean, the numbers
[20:35] are astonishing. And for people who who
[20:37] just haven't read the story,
[20:41] they're they're expected to make $217
[20:45] billion dollar this year. I mean I with
[20:48] a B with a B that's how much they're
[20:50] expected to make not the revenues how
[20:52] much they're or earnings are supposed to
[20:54] be this year over the last 40 years they
[20:57] haven't made a combined $217 billion. So
[21:01] you have to put that in the context and
[21:03] realize that number one when people say
[21:05] this is a bubble it's not a bubble like
[21:08] the earnings are massive. Number two,
[21:10] the amount of chips they're selling and
[21:12] how far into the future they're going to
[21:14] be selling this stuff. It's just not
[21:16] easy to build memory capacity. So
[21:19] Samsung along with SKHEX and Micron have
[21:22] benefited significantly and they're
[21:24] going to continue to benefit
[21:25] significantly. But like I said, if you
[21:27] go back over the last 25 years, the the
[21:30] the only time they had a correction
[21:33] greater than 20% over a 10day period, I
[21:36] believe, was when the world shut down
[21:37] for a virus that was going to kill
[21:39] everyone, and it was very similar to one
[21:41] that happened just after Lehman
[21:42] Brothers. Those are the only two times
[21:44] in 25 years. And yet, it's still near
[21:47] the all-time highs, even though it's off
[21:49] 20% and it's still a parabola. Here's
[21:52] the thing I would say. I saw a lot of
[21:53] people be very negative because one of
[21:56] the things that we like to do is, hey,
[21:58] they sold off on good news.
[22:01] The problem is they were already down
[22:03] 15%
[22:04] off the highs when that happened. So, I
[22:07] I don't care about it nearly as much.
[22:09] What I look for in those types of sell
[22:11] the news things is when the stock is at
[22:13] all-time highs, it opens higher and then
[22:15] it sells off and it catches everyone and
[22:17] then that usually leads to a two-month
[22:19] or so correction. These things have been
[22:21] correcting now for about 4 to 6 weeks.
[22:24] And I say four to 6 weeks. Even though
[22:26] they made new all-time highs, you
[22:27] started to see the weakness in late May.
[22:30] And that's when I really started to
[22:31] pound the table on, okay, I really think
[22:33] the AI midcycle slowdown is there. And
[22:35] all we've done is wipe out the leverage
[22:38] at this point across three buckets.
[22:40] Systematic MA uh quant strategies have
[22:43] been forced to take down their leverage.
[22:45] We've also seen Korean investors uh
[22:47] forced take down. We've seen the ETFs,
[22:50] the two-time ETF in Hong Kong go down
[22:53] 62%. Like we've seen enough in my
[22:55] opinion that we have a more balanced
[22:57] market. And if you looked at what SKHENX
[23:00] did with their ADR issuance and how
[23:03] overs subscribed it was on the IPO
[23:05] coming to the market, but then when you
[23:07] read that most of the buyers or a lot of
[23:09] the buyers were long only people, this
[23:11] is the way long only managers are
[23:13] showing their hand, which is they missed
[23:15] this party on the way up. to move too
[23:16] fast for how fast they deploy money,
[23:19] they're going to be underneath to buy
[23:20] things. So, I'm very comfortable that
[23:21] we've done enough damage. Maybe we make
[23:23] a little bit more new lows during
[23:25] earning season, particularly on some
[23:27] stocks, but the volatility is way too
[23:29] high in the momentum side. It's going to
[23:31] come down and it's going to come down
[23:32] through lower correlation amongst the
[23:34] names.
[23:35] I know as the uh AI trade is maybe
[23:37] gearing up to uh to get out of this
[23:39] midcycle slowdown, uh you've become more
[23:41] bullish on Bitcoin. What's going on
[23:43] there?
[23:45] Uh well, it's really I mean we talked
[23:48] about it, but I'll just re-emphasize uh
[23:50] a couple things and then I'll get into a
[23:52] bigger topic that I'm starting to to to
[23:54] say to managers and explain why I even
[23:57] am starting a YouTube specifically on
[23:59] crypto targeted for September. Uh as
[24:03] people get to know me, uh I still I'll
[24:05] always be a trader. I'll always look for
[24:06] the best timing on things. But when
[24:08] you're running a business, you want to
[24:10] start things at a time when people are
[24:12] going to start to be looking for them.
[24:14] Um and I think uh this is a really
[24:16] important story. So the first thing is I
[24:18] always look for technical signs and I
[24:21] finally got my first RSI divergence
[24:24] since the peak uh at the end of last
[24:27] year and that divergence was using
[24:31] basically a 4hour RSI and I look for
[24:34] points where the price makes new low
[24:36] which happened when we broke through
[24:38] 60,000 recently but the RSI is higher
[24:41] than it was at the prior low. plain and
[24:43] simple. Now, that was the first time
[24:44] that we got one. So, as a trader, I go,
[24:47] "Well, now I can buy something when we
[24:49] get back above 60 and I'll just stop
[24:51] myself back out below the lows." That's
[24:53] the way a trader trades and that's the
[24:54] way that I've always thought. It's the
[24:55] way I was brought up. And I'm an Elliot
[24:57] wave guy and I still believe we're
[24:58] entering a very, very big thing. My
[25:00] belief is that over the course of the
[25:02] next year, we are near the bottom end of
[25:04] the range of Bitcoin. And see how I said
[25:06] that, near. Could we go to 50? Yeah.
[25:08] Could we go to 45? Yeah. Do I think
[25:10] we'll be over 100 a year from now? Yeah.
[25:12] So what do I care whether I buy
[25:14] something at 60 or whatever? Yes, my my
[25:18] percentage gain will be better, but if
[25:20] we're above 100, I don't care. So that's
[25:21] the first thing. The second thing is
[25:23] I've highlighted that we probably all
[25:26] underestimated, I know I did, the impact
[25:29] that the AI capital suck would have from
[25:32] the rest of everything. It's not just
[25:34] Bitcoin people, it's the hyperscalers as
[25:37] well. basically my benchmark arbitrage
[25:39] of money rotating into the space that's
[25:42] going the fastest. Micron went up 20
[25:45] times. A 20 bagger. 20 bagger. You don't
[25:48] get that in big companies and this is a
[25:50] big company. So for that to happen,
[25:54] you didn't need to buy Bitcoin. You
[25:55] didn't need to buy crypto. You didn't
[25:56] need to buy any of this stuff. Every
[25:58] single person in Silicon Valley talked
[26:00] about how startups, if you had AI
[26:02] attached to it, nobody wanted crypto. At
[26:04] the end of the day, people want to
[26:05] invest in things that are working. And
[26:07] so once it started to move lower, which
[26:09] coincided in October with the release of
[26:13] Opus 4.5, but it also coincided with
[26:16] another strong secular trend that has
[26:18] still been in place until last week,
[26:19] which was rate cuts. We had 150 basis
[26:23] points of rate cuts still in the market
[26:25] as of October or late September of last
[26:28] year. That peaked there. Some of it came
[26:31] out because of the actual cut, but then
[26:33] a lot of it came out because we started
[26:35] to build in hikes. And we have about we
[26:38] have a full cut plus percent of sorry
[26:42] hike plus a hot probability of another
[26:45] one before the end of the year. So
[26:47] here's what I'm telling you is going to
[26:48] happen in my mind. Um that's all going
[26:51] to change or at least the rate of change
[26:52] is going to be there. And I'm afraid of
[26:54] change guys. I do not think they want to
[26:56] hike. I did a piece on the Fed this week
[26:58] and made sure that everyone was
[27:00] highlighted that hey the Fed Walsh has
[27:03] spoken. He believes AI is going to be a
[27:05] productivity boom and that there might
[27:08] be a point at the beginning where it's a
[27:10] little inflationary before we get to
[27:12] deflationary, but the last thing he
[27:14] wants to do is go on some tight hiking
[27:16] cycle because of inflation. We're going
[27:18] to get a negative CPI print. The
[27:20] question is July 29th when we have the
[27:22] FOMC, are they going to raise rates?
[27:25] There's a possibility, a good
[27:27] possibility, it's like 35 to 40% that
[27:29] they will. If they don't, then I think
[27:32] Bitcoin will be above 70,000 when that
[27:35] time comes because I think people are
[27:36] going to start factoring in the fact
[27:39] that maybe they're not going at all this
[27:40] year before the midterms. Does he really
[27:42] want to hike before the midterms when he
[27:44] was brought in by Trump? So, I think
[27:46] that may be on hold for a while. And
[27:48] it's not that it's a big deal because it
[27:50] means they're not cutting rates. But
[27:51] since hikes are expected, it is a
[27:54] positive relative to expectations.
[27:56] Those are the ways that I'm kind of
[27:58] looking at it. But I want to leave one
[27:59] more thing for people and this gets into
[28:01] the bigger picture. Scott Besson gave a
[28:03] speech at the New York uh economic club
[28:06] and I posted something on X uh on Friday
[28:11] that Matt Hogan had put out. I do think
[28:13] people should read the speech. I think
[28:14] they should also read the op-ed from
[28:16] Muhammad Alan on it. This is the fact
[28:19] guys and we talk about it here. The
[28:22] administration is very focused on
[28:25] changing the way the US does business
[28:28] around the globe and part of that change
[28:31] is making sure that they don't lose the
[28:34] control of the financial system or be
[28:36] the leader of the financial guard rails.
[28:38] He specifically said that digital
[28:41] assets, tokenization,
[28:43] stable coins are all part of the
[28:45] administration's focus on this new
[28:48] economic order. You have to understand
[28:50] what that means. They are focused on
[28:53] crypto being part of the guard rails and
[28:56] this coincides with AI. So the reason I
[28:58] named it AI macro nexus, the reason I do
[29:01] my YouTube and it's about 90% a
[29:04] combination of the impact AI is having
[29:06] on the macro world we exist in today and
[29:08] 10% on crypto and what that means. We're
[29:11] now at the point where the reason I'm
[29:12] going to do YouTube where it's going to
[29:14] be about 70% starting with crypto and
[29:16] then showing the difference of the macro
[29:18] world and AI connected to it is because
[29:21] we are about to enter the AI agentic
[29:23] commerce side which means the velocity
[29:25] of money is going to increase. the
[29:27] dormant assets that remain in the form
[29:30] of housing, real estate around the globe
[29:32] are going to be liqufied and turned into
[29:35] active cash over the next five years
[29:37] through tokenization. These are all
[29:39] major positives and that's the reason
[29:41] why I think you're at the beginning of a
[29:43] multi-year bull market in Bitcoin. And
[29:45] whether it starts in October, whether it
[29:48] starts in December, or whether it starts
[29:49] right now, I think we're at the bottom
[29:52] end of the range for the next year.
[29:54] I recently saw a statistic that showed
[29:56] uh stable coins are spiking on the
[29:59] weekends in terms of volume which makes
[30:00] sense. The banks are closed, right? So
[30:02] people want to uh access it. We also saw
[30:05] the open stable coin a kind of
[30:07] consortium that got announced. I think
[30:09] they have like Mastercard and Visa and
[30:11] Stripe. You a bunch of people all
[30:13] participating in this and it just feels
[30:16] like some of this is hey how do I get
[30:18] into the stable coin game? But a lot of
[30:20] it is the agents need money and what
[30:24] money are they going to use, how are
[30:25] they going to use this, whatever. Um, do
[30:28] you see anything on that front or are
[30:30] you hearing anything from fund managers
[30:32] that suggests they're now starting to
[30:35] move some of their funds into whether
[30:37] it's stable coins or bitcoin or is this
[30:40] more so you think we're pretty early in
[30:41] this reversal and you're you're starting
[30:43] to buy now because you know you think
[30:45] that's what's people are going to be
[30:46] doing 3 months from now. So price leaves
[30:50] nar leads narrative. The first thing
[30:51] that always happens in a bottom is you
[30:53] start getting short covering because
[30:54] people are frustrated that this has gone
[30:56] on. I think Bitcoin has been a funding
[30:59] side of the AI trade. I think um it
[31:02] started when software got bludgeoned and
[31:04] all of the software names got hit hard.
[31:07] Uh and Bitcoin was part of it. I would
[31:09] say anything built on code, you couldn't
[31:11] get away from the correlation. So if you
[31:13] wanted to hedge your semiconductors,
[31:16] which now had high beta, you needed to
[31:18] find high beta shorts. And high beta
[31:19] shorts ended up being Salesforce.com,
[31:22] Adobe, Adobe, Workday, and Bitcoin. And
[31:25] I think all of those things became part
[31:27] of the momentum trade. So it's not a
[31:29] coincidence that as momentum has gone
[31:31] down sharply that Bitcoin has a bid. So
[31:34] for people want to be bearish like,
[31:35] well, this is it just short covering.
[31:37] All rallies that last for a year start
[31:40] with short covering. every single one
[31:41] because it means the narrative that was
[31:44] existing before the AI infrastructure
[31:46] trade is no longer as strong as it's
[31:48] going to be and it's going to take a
[31:50] while for that releveraging to happen
[31:51] and as we go through earnings like I
[31:53] said I think you're going to have
[31:54] disappointments before every single name
[31:57] was working. I don't think that's going
[31:58] to be the case anymore in the AI trade.
[32:00] I also don't think you can get five
[32:02] baggers and six baggers over the course
[32:03] of the next year. I think a lot of these
[32:05] things are priced well. Dylan Patel
[32:06] talked about it today and he said you're
[32:08] going to see some surprises on the CPU
[32:10] side and the surprise is going to be
[32:11] that we've kind of gone a little too far
[32:13] on the optics side. We've gone a little
[32:14] too far. You're gonna he talked about
[32:16] this. I think what all that means is
[32:18] that that place is priced in a way where
[32:21] if you can get 40% over the next year,
[32:24] that's great. I think Bitcoin can do
[32:26] more than 40% based on the fact that
[32:28] just to get back to all-time highs,
[32:30] you're talking about a double. and
[32:32] getting back to all-time highs to me,
[32:34] we'll be left with the narrative that I
[32:35] just talked about. So, the first stage
[32:37] is short covering. The second stage is
[32:39] for the momentum to shift once we get
[32:41] above the 200 day moving average, which
[32:43] I've said that is the critical line. We
[32:45] are still way below it right now. We
[32:47] still I think it's around 76 77,000. So,
[32:50] we still have quite a ways. We have 20%
[32:52] before we get up there. So, this will be
[32:54] a short covering rally. We'll see how it
[32:56] goes. And like I talked about and for
[32:58] people who who heard this before and
[33:00] still reach out to me, are we still
[33:02] watching Doge? Yes, I'm still watching
[33:04] Doge for the energy side of crypto. But
[33:07] I do think there will be uh surprising
[33:10] news on what you said over the course of
[33:12] the year where when people start to
[33:14] realize that the 40name index that I've
[33:17] created which goes through eight
[33:20] separate verticals or sectors is a
[33:23] direct overlay with Bitcoin that Bitcoin
[33:25] just represents the ecosystem and I
[33:27] think the ecosystem is going to benefit
[33:29] from the stable from the agentic side
[33:31] and that's going to flow to Bitcoin as
[33:32] well.
[33:33] Michael Sailor. The first Bitcoin sale
[33:36] was like a dip in the, you know, dip
[33:38] your toe in the water. The second one
[33:40] was like a cannonball in the deep end.
[33:42] The first time it sold off. The second
[33:44] time he sold off a little bit, but it
[33:46] almost seemed like the market was like,
[33:47] "Ah, whatever." And they really didn't
[33:49] care. So, you know, maybe he should get
[33:50] some kudos for the way that he did this.
[33:53] Um, and it's minimal impact on the
[33:55] market with the big sale. But do you
[33:57] take or read into that sale or or the
[34:00] response from the market? Uh, a year
[34:03] from now, this stuff is going to be
[34:04] noise. Um, I'm actually a little
[34:07] embarrassed to be associated with
[34:09] something where we have to even talk
[34:11] about this ridiculous thing. I I just
[34:14] the Michael Sailor thing to me, um, he's
[34:16] even become like people are blaming him
[34:18] for why Bitcoin's not going higher.
[34:20] [gasps]
[34:21] Bitcoin, as we talked about, um, in
[34:24] every asset you have corrections. I
[34:27] don't get into four-year cycles. I don't
[34:28] get into any of this stuff, but
[34:31] the reality is what he has done and what
[34:34] he has been able to do. I'm more focused
[34:36] on the quantum side of crypto and the
[34:39] solutions that are coming out and some
[34:40] of the themes about should we just
[34:43] basically deal with these tokens that
[34:45] are dormant and should we the man owns
[34:49] an enormous amount of supply of an asset
[34:52] that I believe the world is going to
[34:53] acknowledge is a real asset for
[34:56] collateral and as we get into
[34:57] tokenization and we start getting into
[34:59] the dormant asset side I think people
[35:01] will start to understand the value of
[35:03] collateral again like they'll start to
[35:04] understand what he has always talked
[35:06] about. So I never bought into this
[35:08] thing. I do agree that the most
[35:10] important thing is that it's actually
[35:12] higher than when he made his biggest
[35:13] sale. That would be a sign that if you
[35:16] would have said to people, hey, what
[35:17] would happen if a week after he makes
[35:19] his biggest sale the unthinkable that he
[35:22] said he would never do publicly and even
[35:25] though this is for a different reason,
[35:27] so it doesn't count, but he did do it,
[35:29] what would happen? Everyone would have
[35:30] said the thing would be down big. So the
[35:32] fact that it's higher I think is a Apple
[35:35] type news item where it happened and
[35:38] once you don't sell off after something
[35:40] like that it actually is more of a
[35:42] positive than a negative. So I don't
[35:44] think this will ever be talked about
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[38:02] [snorts] When you look at the market
[38:04] right now, um, we've talked a lot about
[38:05] AI, talked a lot about crypto. Are there
[38:07] are there any areas that you're really
[38:10] excited about or that uh you're you're
[38:11] starting to deploy capital into that
[38:13] don't fall into AI and crypto? or do you
[38:15] think those are like the two games in
[38:16] town?
[38:18] So, I am looking into the insurance
[38:19] side. I'm looking into the regional bank
[38:21] side. I've talked a lot about Eli Liy,
[38:23] which is going to remain
[38:26] Eli Liy. I I don't think even if it were
[38:29] to go up, even if it were a threebagger
[38:31] from here, I wouldn't get out of it. I I
[38:33] have so much belief in what is happening
[38:36] on the health side and the compounding
[38:38] side of curing diseases and I want to be
[38:41] associated with the group that's already
[38:44] done sovereign AI. Uh, and I want to
[38:47] make sure people hear that all this talk
[38:48] you're hearing from people, well, you
[38:50] should own your own models, you should
[38:51] go through this. Remember what Anthony
[38:53] and I talked about with Lily Pod and the
[38:56] fact that on their campus they have a
[38:58] thousand black wells. They have their
[39:01] own sovereign AI. They are using that
[39:05] with biotech companies. So, I'm going to
[39:07] keep saying that healthc care is a big
[39:09] thing. On my video last week, I did go
[39:11] through some of the insurance names
[39:13] which are now starting to see. I think
[39:14] we're actually going into how important
[39:17] agents are for companies that were
[39:20] already using AI and that means a lot of
[39:23] the banks are going to do well and
[39:25] you've seen a lot of the banks make new
[39:27] all-time highs. The regional banks have
[39:29] made new all-time highs. regional banks
[39:31] fit into a very interesting thing which
[39:33] is it's very hard to buy a bank and take
[39:36] them private um because of all the
[39:38] regulations which means takeovers with
[39:41] inside the regional banks for midsize
[39:43] banks is probably going to happen
[39:45] because as people put AI into their
[39:48] model they can go buy companies and then
[39:50] infuse them with AI and get rid of
[39:52] headcount so it becomes very accretive
[39:54] immediately so I think you're going to
[39:55] see a lot of consolidation with inside
[39:57] the financials and I think the
[39:59] healthcare side and the insurance side
[40:01] has already been spending money on this
[40:02] and already advanced on it, they're
[40:04] going to start seeing the benefits over
[40:05] the next year.
[40:06] What about outside of the public
[40:08] markets? Are there anything in terms of
[40:10] commodities or anything else that you're
[40:11] starting to uh to get excited about?
[40:13] Well, if I'm right about um
[40:16] Bitcoin, then silver is going to do well
[40:18] and gold's going to do well. It's not
[40:20] going to be a resurgence of the um of
[40:22] the debasement trade,
[40:25] but it is going to be a hey, these
[40:28] things were impacted more than we
[40:29] thought from AI sucking the dollars out
[40:32] of everything. And then secondly, the
[40:35] reality that we have hikes built in. So
[40:39] the run it hot thing turned into, hey,
[40:41] we don't have any need for this. I I
[40:44] wrote about this. I talked about it. We
[40:46] still have a budget deficit that's
[40:49] massive. And the reason that's important
[40:53] is I don't think the Fed can raise
[40:54] rates. So, one other angle is they raise
[40:56] rates in July.
[40:59] This could be a Michael Sailor type
[41:00] moment as well because if they raise
[41:02] rates, in my opinion, without any
[41:04] question, it'll be a oneanddone and
[41:06] it'll be a Fred a Fed credibility hike.
[41:09] The long end's going to come down,
[41:10] meaning yields are going to come down
[41:12] and that would be the reason that they'd
[41:13] be okay doing it. Every single macro
[41:15] person I talk to when we've had good
[41:17] conversations on this believes this. So
[41:19] do I. That if they were to tighten in a
[41:21] surprising manner in July as a
[41:23] credibility hike, the long end would
[41:25] come down. I think at that point people
[41:28] would treat it as a one and done and for
[41:30] the end of the year we have another 50%
[41:34] of a hike built in. And so it could
[41:36] actually act as a positive if it's a
[41:38] dovish hike where he says we did this
[41:41] for the credibility side. we are
[41:42] committed to this but we think now we're
[41:44] in a position where we can sit back and
[41:46] wait. If that were going to happen which
[41:48] I think is going to happen uh in terms
[41:50] of if they did it they're going to do
[41:51] that way uh I think that would be
[41:53] positive as well. So I actually think
[41:55] gold silver uh and bitcoin that
[41:58] regrouping the debasement trade will
[42:00] start to resur uh see a bottoming and a
[42:03] rise as well.
[42:05] Now, sometimes people will listen to
[42:07] this and they should take away signal
[42:10] from the things we talk about. There's
[42:12] also times where they should take away
[42:13] signal for the things we don't talk
[42:15] about. And
[42:17] the Iran war has been on again, off
[42:20] again, on again, off again, off for
[42:22] real. No, not anymore. And uh this past
[42:24] week, we got uh I think whiplash, maybe
[42:28] it was on and off twice. I don't, and
[42:32] this sounds crazy, but I don't think
[42:33] that the investment community really
[42:35] cares anymore about the Iran war's
[42:37] impact on their investments. Obviously,
[42:40] there may be difference in terms of the
[42:42] people who live in Iran or the the
[42:43] military components, the geopolitics,
[42:45] all that, but like from an investor
[42:46] standpoint, I have not heard someone
[42:49] talk about Iran impacting anything in
[42:52] their portfolio in the last two weeks.
[42:54] Maybe you have, but what's your take
[42:55] there?
[42:57] Um, no. No one's really talked about it.
[43:00] And I I don't think this is uh
[43:04] I don't think this is people just not
[43:06] being aware of it or not being uh I
[43:10] don't know scared of the fact that it
[43:12] started and I think the reality is oil
[43:15] doesn't budge and even though we had a r
[43:18] you know we we jumped
[43:21] I if if oil and this is the beauty of
[43:24] markets we heard the doom and gloomer
[43:26] say it should go to 200
[43:29] let's haircut that and Hey, it should
[43:30] have gone to 150.
[43:32] The problem is it's still despite
[43:35] everything and it's not just the front
[43:38] part of the curve, it's the back end.
[43:41] There are no issues. The thing that I
[43:44] take from this is is plain and simple
[43:47] there. We were supposed to have gas
[43:49] prices surging. Now, again, crack
[43:52] spreads are wide. And the reason crack
[43:53] spreads are wide and so people
[43:54] understand what crack spreads are, it's
[43:56] the differential between the gas price
[43:58] and the oil price. the conversion from
[44:00] oil into gas that is still high. So the
[44:04] ability of having gasoline is the issue
[44:08] that is still still there but oil as a
[44:11] whole is not going higher and I think
[44:12] everyone would treat it as a short-term
[44:14] thing. They don't think this is going to
[44:15] not end. Uh meaning this is a flare up.
[44:18] I think everyone had built into their
[44:20] expectations this. So, I'll just say to
[44:22] everyone here, unless we see surprising
[44:25] movements in oil where it actually goes
[44:27] higher, it still acts in the market at
[44:30] something that has a positive negative.
[44:32] And I hate to say this, it acts like
[44:34] there's a glut. It literally acts like
[44:36] when this ends, the price is going to
[44:38] head back to 50. So, I'm not saying that
[44:41] is going to happen. I'm just saying the
[44:42] way the market looks and the way it
[44:43] acts, it just doesn't act like something
[44:46] that's going to go significantly higher.
[44:47] So I think we're stuck between 65 and
[44:50] 80. And unless we get above 80 and the
[44:54] Iran situation is worsening where
[44:56] there's no ships going through Hormuz, I
[44:58] just don't think it matters for the
[44:59] markets.
[45:00] The last thing I want to talk about for
[45:02] a couple minutes is um I don't know if
[45:03] you saw the 1X robotic hand demo.
[45:07] No.
[45:08] So um maybe the best way I can describe
[45:11] this is the hand has been the hardest
[45:13] part of robotics for a very long time.
[45:15] 30, 40 years people have been working on
[45:16] this and most people what they
[45:18] essentially have done is they have used
[45:19] robotic components to build the hand.
[45:21] But if you think of your hand, it is all
[45:24] operated off of tendons. And so 1X
[45:27] essentially has created a synthetic
[45:30] version of a tendon-based robotic hand.
[45:33] And in this demo, you know, they can do
[45:35] very kind of ampidextrious, you know,
[45:37] type uh type things or very dextterous
[45:39] type things. But more importantly is it
[45:41] can screw on a light bulb. It can pick a
[45:45] cherry without, you know, going and
[45:46] smashing it or it can do things that I
[45:48] think a lot of people when they saw saw
[45:50] this demo, the video got millions of
[45:51] views online or like whoa, hold on a
[45:54] second here. This is a significant leap
[45:57] forward.
[45:58] My takeaway from seeing this is that
[46:01] everything that you and I are excited
[46:03] about from an AI perspective, I would be
[46:05] shocked if that robotic hand was not
[46:09] somehow either ideiated or developed
[46:12] using AI. And so we now are getting the
[46:15] like, you know, second boost to this
[46:17] robotic stuff where people are having
[46:19] this super intelligent software to help
[46:22] them make these advancements. And it
[46:24] wouldn't shock me at all if we start to
[46:25] see some pretty crazy stuff happen where
[46:27] these robots start to be as humanlike as
[46:30] maybe we all feared that they could, you
[46:31] know, eventually get to.
[46:33] Mhm. So, I'm going to And this is what
[46:36] this is a Finnish company, right? Or a
[46:38] Norwegian company.
[46:41] I think the I think that it is made in
[46:43] the United States. Uh but I think the
[46:45] founders might be from there. I I can't
[46:47] remember. There's something that is like
[46:48] a Nordic relationship. Uh but I don't
[46:50] think that the company is based. I think
[46:52] it's actually a US company, but maybe
[46:54] the founders are from there.
[46:55] So, I I'm going to I agree with what you
[46:57] said and and so people hear this. Um,
[47:00] I'll start with a statement and then I'm
[47:02] going to work a little backwards towards
[47:03] why this isn't, you know, why ROIC for
[47:06] for hyperscalers is not like fracking in
[47:09] oil. Um, in in in this context. Uh, so
[47:13] first of all, Anony's point is really
[47:16] important, which I agree with. We're
[47:18] underestimating that as we get to 100,
[47:21] we're above 140 IQ now. As we get above
[47:24] 160, and as we get above 200, we will be
[47:27] solving problems that we haven't been
[47:28] able to solve. We'll take angles that
[47:30] will allow us to produce these things.
[47:33] And then once the humanoids are
[47:36] available, then we also don't have to do
[47:38] the physical work of testing it out.
[47:40] They can build them for us. So the hand
[47:43] is critical because it's probably the
[47:45] worst thing we have for actually doing
[47:47] intricate work that would be necessary
[47:50] for robots to be making robots or robots
[47:52] to be solving the problem. So if the
[47:54] intelligence is there, we do need the
[47:56] hands to be able to have them go. And
[47:58] this was on a moonshots where uh Dave
[48:01] Blondon basically admitted that he
[48:03] underestimated how quickly we will get
[48:05] billions of robots because he he saw at
[48:09] Tesla, oh my gosh, the robots will be
[48:12] building the robots at some point. This
[48:14] is the compounding side that goes with
[48:15] Opus 4.5 leads to 4.6 which leads to 4.7
[48:18] and this whole thing of recursive
[48:20] self-improvement. Now the reason I want
[48:22] to bring this back is to oil. I was
[48:25] asked by someone this week that isn't
[48:27] the ROIC risk for the hyperscalers the
[48:29] same as what happened with uh fracking
[48:32] with the reason being and a a bunch of
[48:34] people on VEX have posted this. They've
[48:36] scared the hell out of some of my
[48:37] subscribers. They've reached out. Here's
[48:39] the reality guys. This is not
[48:41] intelligence is not the same as oil.
[48:43] Like I don't I don't know how to like
[48:44] make that clear. Oil is oil.
[48:47] Intelligence is everything. Meaning the
[48:51] price of tokens going down, the usage
[48:53] goes higher. [snorts] Oil usage only
[48:56] grows in a linear fashion related to
[48:58] nominal GDP. It is a physical constraint
[49:02] to get more of it. The problem is for
[49:05] intelligence, it's the usage is growing
[49:07] exponentially. Oil never grows
[49:10] exponentially demand-wise. The only
[49:12] thing that slows down AI is the data
[49:16] centers. It's the gas turbines. It's the
[49:18] physical stuff which cannot be made
[49:20] quickly. So to Anony's point and for all
[49:23] of you that are not understanding how
[49:24] the compounding will go towards solving
[49:26] the energy problem and why I always have
[49:28] one eye on crude because eventually
[49:31] crude will go to zero. It will go to
[49:33] zero because we will solve energy at the
[49:36] fision fusion. Name anything you want.
[49:38] We will come up with so many solutions
[49:41] going forward. And so when you listen to
[49:43] Daario and you listen to Sam Alman and
[49:45] you listen to Greg Brockman, they're all
[49:47] saying the same thing, which is the
[49:49] intelligence in getting us to a point
[49:50] where math is being solved. Once math is
[49:53] being solved, then cancer can be solved.
[49:55] Then energy can be solved. These are all
[49:57] the science problems. These are all the
[49:59] physics problems of getting us to the
[50:01] point where everything can compound. So,
[50:03] in the same way we're talking about the
[50:04] compounding of intelligence and models
[50:06] for coding, which is language, we're
[50:09] about to get into it with consumer
[50:10] agents, and we're also about to get it
[50:12] into science. And that's where the
[50:14] robotics thing in the humanoids gets so
[50:16] important for your investment decision-m
[50:18] and it also feeds in why the financial
[50:20] guardrails are necessary to deal with
[50:21] this type of speed.
[50:23] I think that's a great place for us to
[50:24] end it. What um what are you going to
[50:27] cover in your YouTube video this Sunday?
[50:29] I'm I'm going to harp on the fact uh
[50:32] number one that the AM midcycle slowdown
[50:34] is over in the face that I think the
[50:35] sentiment has dropped off enough the
[50:37] volatility's gone high enough that we
[50:39] are in the bottom end of the
[50:41] consolidation and you should not should
[50:43] now be thinking instead of is this going
[50:45] lower now you should be thinking with
[50:47] the AI trade which I couldn't say when
[50:49] Micron was at 1300 but at 950 will it be
[50:53] higher 6 months from now yes it will
[50:55] once we get through two earning cycle it
[50:57] will be higher Uh so the sixmon look
[51:00] forward from this you're at the bottom
[51:02] end of the range not the top end of the
[51:03] range. Second thing is how important
[51:05] consumer agents are to compute. For all
[51:08] of you scared about compute thinking
[51:10] there's a chance there's excess compute.
[51:12] If you guys want to hammer me in the
[51:14] future I will say this again. We have
[51:16] insatiable demand for compute. We do not
[51:19] have enough supply. And the argument I
[51:21] just gave you, compute demand is
[51:23] exponential because intelligence usage
[51:25] goes up dramatically with every model
[51:28] advancement, but the physical supply is
[51:30] what constrains us. So this is a supply
[51:33] demand mismatch and I'm going to go
[51:34] through why that means you should be
[51:35] invested there. And then thirdly, I will
[51:38] go in more detail on this Bessin speech
[51:40] and I will focus again on the importance
[51:42] of Bitcoin because I do believe that a
[51:44] year from now, we will be talking about
[51:46] crypto in the same way that we're
[51:47] talking about memory. And I'm going to
[51:49] finalize it with what you said. You
[51:52] asked me the question, are fundamental
[51:54] people starting to No, they are not
[51:55] focused on this right now. Number one,
[51:57] because they're still focused on AI,
[51:59] both from a loss perspective and what's
[52:01] happened the last four weeks, but also
[52:03] from what should we be buying down here.
[52:05] Once they recognize and get through the
[52:07] Fed and they get through all of the
[52:09] changes, they are going to need to focus
[52:10] on crypto and the financial guardrails
[52:12] of the future. And six months from now
[52:14] as we go into next year, crypto will be
[52:17] the memory for next year.
[52:19] Man, that got me hyped up. Journey, I'll
[52:21] be watching. [laughter]
[52:23] We'll talk again next week.