# 🔴 Crypto Feels Broken, So Why Is He Still Bullish? | Drinks With Raoul Pal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky58w50rGWg

[00:11] Well, welcome to the um I don't know
[00:14] what the [ __ ] I'm doing show. I'm on my
[00:16] own here. My beautiful blonde
[00:19] accompanist Blondie has left me
[00:21] standing. So, I'm on my own coping while
[00:24] she's in Florida. Um and I am now out of
[00:28] control. So, we've got wine, we've got
[00:31] nicotine, and we've got shitty [ __ ]
[00:33] market. So, welcome to this world. Oh,
[00:35] it's also hot as balls here in Little
[00:37] Cayman. Um, it is just gets more and
[00:41] more humid. The mosquitoes are coming
[00:43] and it's unbearable. So, the only way to
[00:45] pass your time is actually get drunk,
[00:47] look at charts, talk [ __ ] maybe insult
[00:49] some people. Um, I find it works for me.
[00:52] Hopefully, it works for you. Um, so
[00:54] anyway, cheers. Happy Thursday.
[00:59] So, what are we going to talk about
[01:00] today?
[01:02] I think
[01:04] firstly we need to talk about food and
[01:06] wine because culture is everything even
[01:09] in a market that's [ __ ] imploding um
[01:12] every single day of our lives. Um which
[01:15] makes us all feel so special, right? Um
[01:18] so what I've got today is today is a
[01:21] champagne day. Why? Because it's four
[01:23] o'clock in the afternoon. It's hot as
[01:24] bulls here. So, I'm not drinking a, you
[01:27] know, susakaya or something. I'm going
[01:29] to drink something fresh and light. And
[01:30] champagne is my go-to drink cuz I live
[01:32] in the tropics and I just like champagne
[01:34] and it doesn't do me damage. I'm an old
[01:36] [ __ ] now. And it starts to give me red
[01:38] wine gives me migraines. Anything over
[01:40] like 12 and a half, 13% gives me
[01:42] migraines now. So, even though I collect
[01:44] red wine, I've got tons of the stuff,
[01:46] hundreds and hundreds of bottles, I
[01:48] barely drink it, which is kind of
[01:50] ridiculous. Um and then all of the um
[01:53] white wine and champagne that I have I
[01:55] drink um excessively probably. Um so
[01:58] what have we got today? We have
[02:01] 3210 a champagne by Philip Gonet um
[02:05] extra brute. So it's super bone dry
[02:07] which I really like. I'm becoming less
[02:09] and less enamored by anything sweet. And
[02:11] I really like kind of clean, fresh, dry,
[02:14] which is why I'm in my Alberinho phase
[02:17] in white wine as well. Even though
[02:19] Albriniah is not expensive, you know,
[02:20] you can get really good Alberinia for
[02:22] like 30 bucks. Um, you it's lower
[02:25] alcohol, you drink it like water, it's
[02:27] fresh, it's salty, it's clean, as is a
[02:30] brute champagne. So brute champagne or
[02:33] extra brute is when they finish it off.
[02:36] You could have brute natural, which is
[02:38] where there's no sugar added at the at
[02:40] the final moment. Uh, I can't remember
[02:42] the bloody name of whatever that process
[02:44] is called. Uh, with extra brute, it just
[02:46] keeps it super dry. So, Brute means dry,
[02:48] super dry. So, it's clean and fresh. It
[02:51] works on a hot summer's day. Um, if
[02:54] you're in Australia, tough [ __ ] But,
[02:56] you know, it's breakfast for you. So,
[02:57] champagne works perfectly for breakfast
[02:59] for me. Um, just don't put orange juice
[03:01] in it. Not in good champagne like this.
[03:04] So,
[03:06] cheers. And then, you know, in order not
[03:08] to be a [ __ ] Philistine, which you
[03:11] guys immensely struggle with, you have
[03:14] awful tasting music, terrible tasting
[03:16] clothes, your fashion sense is basically
[03:20] awful. Your interior design needs a lot
[03:22] to be
[03:24] lived up to. It's um pretty crappy. And
[03:26] your food is like child's pallets. So,
[03:30] what we're trying to do is educate you
[03:31] on on how you have an apparativo.
[03:37] We've got a nice chip bowl here, but
[03:39] this is from Morocco. It tells stories.
[03:41] It tells stories from Morocco. And here
[03:43] we have the famous toasted pumpkin seeds
[03:47] in a little drizzle of olive oil,
[03:49] toasted myself in the oven, and um added
[03:52] with um molden salt on this one. And
[03:56] it's so good because it's crunchy, super
[03:59] healthy, all of the um
[04:03] the omega-3s and the um
[04:06] fibers and all of the things in it, the
[04:09] magnesium, zinc, all of these things.
[04:11] Fantastic snack. Really good. The other
[04:14] one is him Himalayan sea salt lentils.
[04:17] So again, roasted lentils,
[04:21] bit of Himalayan salt. Why do you want
[04:22] the salt? So the salt makes your your
[04:25] taste buds salivate
[04:28] and that means that you're ready for
[04:30] both your drink and when you got it
[04:32] slightly dry as well, you get this whole
[04:34] light dry saltiness of a fresh sea air
[04:40] and also prepares you for dinner. Now
[04:42] it's 4:00 in the afternoon, so I'm going
[04:43] to be shitfaced by the time I have
[04:45] dinner because we got a long session. We
[04:46] got lots of questions to get through on
[04:48] the Real Vision platform and some really
[04:51] bloody good questions. So, we put up a
[04:52] prize of $1,000 in USDC for questions
[04:58] and the best questions, the question I'm
[05:00] going to answer. So, that's coming up.
[05:02] If you do want to ask questions and you
[05:04] haven't joined Realvision yet, it's free
[05:06] to join. Just go to realvision.com/join.
[05:10] You will win. No, you will win. You will
[05:13] be part of the uh prize winning because
[05:16] I'm going to give out maybe another
[05:17] grand or two grand just for people who
[05:20] join today. Because if you haven't
[05:21] joined Real Vision, it's like really
[05:22] good friend of mine, Jules, amazing
[05:24] artist, really one of the best artists
[05:26] and one of the loveliest human beings.
[05:28] He's like, "Oh, [ __ ] I just checked out
[05:29] Real Vision. It's amazing." People think
[05:31] it's like this video platform um and of
[05:35] me and then they go there and they're
[05:37] like, "Holy [ __ ] there's a whole
[05:38] community of people here posting trade
[05:40] ideas, writing research notes. There's
[05:43] all of the experts on the platform.
[05:44] There's the AI tools. There's all of
[05:46] this stuff and nobody knows it's there.
[05:48] Well, except the tens of thousands of
[05:50] you who are members, but still it's an
[05:52] extraordinary place to find alpha on
[05:56] investing, the best ideas from the best
[05:58] community, the smartest people, and the
[06:01] intelligence of that huge community too.
[06:03] So, it it is really really worth
[06:05] joining. I can't express this enough. Uh
[06:08] we'll talk a bit about that in a bit.
[06:11] But more importantly, it's like Little
[06:14] Cayman's quite special at this time of
[06:16] year because half of the you [ __ ]
[06:18] have gone because it's hot as balls
[06:20] elsewhere as well. So, nobody bothers to
[06:22] come here. So, it starts quieting down.
[06:24] And then after August, you get into
[06:26] hurricane season and they shut down most
[06:28] hotels here. And now I'm only in Little
[06:30] Cayman, you know, once a month, twice a
[06:33] month. Um, and then for some periods I
[06:35] come here for a whole month because I
[06:37] absolutely love it. You know, we've got
[06:39] um well, Blondie, in fact, has chickens
[06:41] she's been feeding. So, we've got these
[06:43] baby chickens that are now grown up and
[06:45] now come up to the doorstep of the
[06:46] house. And the the house is like very
[06:48] elevated, so in case of hurricanes and
[06:50] flooding. So, it's on stilts and um the
[06:53] chickens now come up to be fed and she
[06:56] managed to get a baby iguana. So, the
[06:59] iguanas here are like big [ __ ] sister
[07:01] islands rock iguanas. They're indebic to
[07:03] these islands. You don't get them
[07:04] anywhere else. and the major
[07:06] concentrations here in Little Cayman.
[07:07] And they're huge [ __ ] things like
[07:08] Komodo dragons. Um and so she had a baby
[07:12] one so big um in the house to feed it.
[07:16] It came up the stairs cuz it followed
[07:18] the chickens cuz they seem to talk to
[07:20] each other and explain where the free
[07:21] food is. Followed by a curly tail
[07:23] lizard. And um the other thing that she
[07:26] does which is very sweet is um she has a
[07:31] colony of hermit crabs when she's here.
[07:33] So there's a bunch of hermit crabs. We
[07:35] just all of our scrap food goes to the
[07:37] hermit crabs. So you don't need to
[07:38] compost it, do anything. The hermit
[07:40] crabs eat it all. But they all come in
[07:42] their different shells and they're
[07:43] different sizes. And she paints the
[07:46] shells because hermit crabs change
[07:48] shells. And then she goes on the beach
[07:49] for a walk and gets different shells,
[07:52] paints them, and then leaves them out,
[07:54] puts some food out, and before you know
[07:55] it, all the crabs are swapping houses.
[07:57] So it's like this house exchange going
[07:59] on uh whilst they're getting fed. It's
[08:01] just a really cool thing. And I thought,
[08:03] you know, maybe Blondie is just a bit
[08:05] weird. And then we were speaking to a
[08:07] friend of mine who um has been on this
[08:09] island for 20 years. He's like, "Oh,
[08:11] I've got like a colony of 100 crabs or
[08:13] so. I feed them all of my food and I
[08:16] give them shells. I found the best shell
[08:18] place." So, yeah, we get weird on this
[08:19] island. But nature is everything. In a
[08:21] world of AI, a world of markets moving
[08:24] 24/7, 7 days a week, it's really nice to
[08:29] just
[08:31] be able to connect with nature and go
[08:33] for a walk and see the bigger picture.
[08:36] And the bigger picture is is really what
[08:38] this is all about. It's how I try and
[08:40] approach everything. And you know, I
[08:42] know again I keep saying how painful it
[08:45] is for all of us in crypto. I mean, I'm
[08:47] [ __ ] still heavily loading crypto.
[08:49] Yes, we've got a lot of tech and that's
[08:51] amazing. But crypto is the bet that is
[08:54] not it's not the gift that keeps on
[08:56] giving. It was and it's not right now.
[08:58] Uh and we'll come on to markets and
[09:00] stuff in a second. I'll give you
[09:01] hopefully give you some alpha. But you
[09:03] know, I know how tough it is. Um it
[09:05] makes us all feel like [ __ ] We're all
[09:06] feeling poor. Um
[09:09] but over time, I I really strongly
[09:13] believe it plays out. And I strongly
[09:15] believe in my thesis that the layer ones
[09:17] are still the place to be. I still
[09:19] strongly believe in Ethereum, Salana,
[09:21] Sui
[09:23] for those of you in crypto. So just
[09:26] stick with the program. I'll come on to
[09:27] that in a bit. But summer, summer's the
[09:31] time to go to Europe. You see, those of
[09:34] us lucky enough to be able to earn our
[09:36] money in the Western Hemisphere, you
[09:39] know, where the United States is the
[09:41] king of earning money and opportunity.
[09:44] The king of spending money, of quality
[09:47] of life is Europe. So, most of us try
[09:49] and head to Europe for at some point in
[09:50] the summer. I'm going to be heading
[09:52] there sometime in uh July um and spend a
[09:58] month in Europe. And I'm so looking
[10:00] forward to not eating [ __ ] awful food
[10:02] to be honest. You know, what do you get
[10:05] in the US? I mean, yes, you can get
[10:06] everything on Amazon delivered to your
[10:08] house. Uh, and then there's like 78,000
[10:11] steak restaurants, fine dining steak
[10:13] restaurants, and they're all basically
[10:15] [ __ ] Um, you know, go to Galacia in
[10:17] northern Spain and have steak and it's
[10:19] like a religious experience. In the US,
[10:21] it's a cornfed experience. So, um, yeah,
[10:25] which is why most of the US leaves over
[10:27] the summer and goes to Europe. And you
[10:29] know, I [laughter] actually think about
[10:30] this a lot about people say, "Well,
[10:32] Europe's just going to become a museum."
[10:35] In a world of technology, which is
[10:38] moving faster, this exponential age
[10:40] where everything's going exponential. I
[10:42] talk about nature a lot, but the other
[10:43] thing that grounds us is culture and and
[10:47] our sense of history and place. And
[10:50] Europe actually does that really really
[10:52] well. And I notice it every time I go
[10:54] back, even to London now, they really
[10:56] trade on these experiences. And these
[10:58] experience are immensely valuable to us
[11:00] because they give us a a sense of
[11:01] grounding. So, you know, it's really
[11:04] hard not to enjoy being in Spain, Italy,
[11:06] France, Greece, Portugal in the summer
[11:10] and slowing down, enjoying amazing fresh
[11:14] food and people that just aren't driven
[11:16] in the same way. And I love that. I I
[11:19] really love it. Um, you know, that's the
[11:21] reason half of England tips out over the
[11:24] summer in Northern Europe, the Dutch and
[11:25] the Germans. A because they're [ __ ]
[11:27] miserable countries. Um, full of
[11:29] miserable people. Well, they're
[11:31] miserable until they get into the sun
[11:32] and then they're delightful people. Um,
[11:35] you just have to get out of that awful
[11:36] weather. You know, Belgium, it's all the
[11:38] same. Danes, I mean, look at Andreas.
[11:41] He's always miserable. Just needs to get
[11:43] in the sun a bit more, but he's he's got
[11:44] that Scandinavian tan, so he just burns
[11:46] in seconds. But the summer's here. It's
[11:51] time to actually kind of enjoy
[11:52] ourselves, relax a little bit, have a
[11:54] glass of champagne, spend time with
[11:56] friends, do all of that, and hopefully
[11:57] the [ __ ] crypto markets recover. Uh
[12:00] cuz it's getting a little bit tiring.
[12:04] Um
[12:06] so before we go on to the alpha stage,
[12:11] real vision, we've talked about a lot. I
[12:13] know you're on here thinking, "Oh,
[12:14] [ __ ] Ellie's going to sell me
[12:15] something." And and yes, I am. I'm going
[12:17] to sell you a 70% discount. Well, it's
[12:20] between 50 and 70%. We got a big [ __ ]
[12:22] sale, a generational sale going on on
[12:25] Real Vision. Why? Because we got a
[12:27] K-shaped economy going on. We've got a
[12:30] bunch of people making a fortune in AI
[12:32] and technology. We got a bunch of people
[12:35] living ordinary lives trying to get
[12:36] ahead and are still feeling [ __ ]
[12:38] because your mortgage rates are up here,
[12:40] your credit card rates are up here,
[12:41] opportunity still not coming. I think it
[12:44] comes, but it's miserable. It's hard and
[12:47] we've all got to get ahead. And then
[12:49] those of us who thought crypto was going
[12:51] to be our answer, we're sitting there
[12:53] with um portfolios either underwater or
[12:55] not quite where they wanted to be. Um
[12:58] and so that's miserable, too. And we get
[13:00] that. We get that people don't have all
[13:02] the money in the world, but they they
[13:03] still we all still need to find the
[13:06] opportunity in all of this. We need to
[13:08] be able to make money. We need to unfuck
[13:09] our future. And that's what the whole
[13:12] Realvision discount is about. So, join
[13:14] for free or go to realvision.com/pricing
[13:16] if you've been sitting on the fence for
[13:18] ages or you used to be a member and you
[13:20] thought, "Yeah, maybe I don't need to
[13:23] anymore." Come back and see the changes.
[13:25] Come back and see the platform. It's
[13:26] [ __ ] incredible. There is nothing
[13:27] like it that exists. It'll change your
[13:30] life over time. Be part of the
[13:32] community. Be a proactive part. Give
[13:34] ideas. If you've got 20,000 people
[13:36] giving trade ideas and notes, you've got
[13:39] something that is incredibly valuable.
[13:41] It's not about me. Um, you know, let's
[13:44] instead see 20,000 people get it wrong.
[13:46] Um, as I got it wrong in the last year.
[13:48] Um, well, I got some of it wrong. Crypto
[13:51] badly. Technology really right. But, you
[13:53] know, everyone remembers you for your
[13:54] [ __ ] calls. But go to realision.com
[13:57] um/pricing.
[14:00] It's [ __ ] stupid discounts. And we're
[14:02] doing it because it matters to me. It
[14:05] matters to everybody at Realvision to
[14:07] give as many people the opportunity to
[14:09] participate in that economic future.
[14:13] and to understand why markets go up and
[14:15] down, where the opportunity is, how to
[14:17] do it. That's the important part. And
[14:19] I'll come into some of that in a sec.
[14:20] Real.com/pricing
[14:22] or just come for free. I don't give a
[14:25] [ __ ] Just come across. Uh, and also if
[14:28] you ask me a question and you're a brand
[14:29] new member, there's a,000 bucks up to
[14:32] grab. Um, and maybe I'll add another
[14:34] thousand in just because I'm feeling
[14:36] that way. Um, okay. I'm going to drink
[14:38] some wine and then we're going to get
[14:39] into some alpha, I think.
[14:46] Um, okay. So, I'm going start sharing
[14:50] some screens. Random stuff. So, when we
[14:54] go to
[14:58] trading beer.
[15:03] Okay.
[15:04] So, here is the chart. I've got a log I
[15:08] love log regression channels. They give
[15:10] me an idea of how overbought, how
[15:12] oversold things are in a secular trend.
[15:16] Right, we know AI is in a secular trend.
[15:20] He says now pausing for a vape
[15:24] and it has been one of the great trades
[15:26] to own the semis.
[15:29] I'm just writing Global Macro Investor
[15:31] over this weekend. Um, and uh, Real
[15:33] Vision Pro and one of the things we've
[15:36] been doing is taking some money off uh,
[15:39] some of these bets. Took some money off
[15:40] Rocket Labs, took some money off um,
[15:43] semis. But when I look at this, semis
[15:46] are now 3.8 standard deviations
[15:50] overbought versus their log trend since
[15:52] 2008.
[15:54] So this is like La La Lands now in terms
[15:57] of of um overboughtness. Does it mean
[16:00] that they stop? Do they go down?
[16:03] They will definitely not be the leaders
[16:05] of the next phase. That's where I'm
[16:07] getting to on this. Um, and so I start
[16:11] looking at these log channels and then
[16:13] you get to the opposite end of the
[16:15] sphere and we've got actually we haven't
[16:17] got the log channel on ETH here but just
[16:20] ETH itself is yeah you know I love uh
[16:22] Demar indicators Tom Demar great friend
[16:25] of mine best technical indicators I've
[16:28] ever used the depth and nuance of what
[16:30] they have and you can get it on Trading
[16:31] View uh I don't know it's like 250 bucks
[16:34] it's nothing for what for what you get
[16:35] is stupid. Um, so you find the uh D mark
[16:39] 913 on um Trading View, but where we are
[16:43] is a monthly 8 and a monthly um 12 in um
[16:48] this is Ethereum, but they're all the
[16:51] same. Um nines and 13s are the full
[16:55] reversal pattern. So we're at the bottom
[16:57] of the wedge of this consolidation
[16:59] pattern. If you remember, gold did
[17:01] something very similar and then it
[17:03] exploded out of the range. And then when
[17:05] we look at Suie, which I know a bunch of
[17:07] you are in as well, the log channel is
[17:11] we we've already hit the nine count. We
[17:13] won't go to the 13 count. We are 1.8
[17:16] standard deviations oversold. Um so I
[17:19] like I like this. I like this versus
[17:22] that. Let's have a look at gold out of
[17:24] interest. Um,
[17:27] uh, see if I can find it via,
[17:32] uh, let's do all.
[17:38] So, gold really did overshoot.
[17:42] It overshot to, I don't know, three and
[17:44] a bit standard deviations overbought.
[17:46] So, kind of feels like semis did. But if
[17:49] you remember this whole period, there
[17:51] was a you know 14-year periods of
[17:54] sideways or
[17:57] a four or five years period of sideway.
[17:59] This looks a lot kind of like ETH now.
[18:02] So that's kind of how I think about
[18:03] things. Technology keeps moving. Those
[18:06] of you in Realvision Pro and those of
[18:08] you lucky enough to be in GMI, which is
[18:10] separate to Realvision, it's my sort of
[18:13] institutional research service. Um I'm
[18:15] writing up about this great great
[18:16] rotation which I think is coming. I
[18:18] think there's a great rotation uh
[18:20] amongst a bunch of different areas. Um I
[18:23] definitely think there's some areas
[18:25] that's super undervalued. I think layer
[18:26] ones obviously are undervalued um
[18:28] particularly versus NASDAQ and
[18:30] particularly versus semis. Okay, but
[18:32] let's change to something else now. So
[18:36] on real vision, I've built dashboards
[18:38] because now we're all [ __ ] AI
[18:39] superpowers and we can do everything. So
[18:41] I can just build [ __ ] all day and I'm
[18:44] the least technical person in the world.
[18:46] So what I've managed to build on real
[18:48] vision is
[18:51] one of the things is the GMI compounding
[18:53] machine
[18:55] and this is really useful
[18:58] for you to understand how to invest in
[19:01] secular long-term trends. This is how I
[19:04] think of the world. I've made more money
[19:06] from long-term trends than anything
[19:07] else. I ignore the noise. And I was
[19:09] like, how the [ __ ] can you ignore the
[19:10] noise? Can't you see that it's gone down
[19:12] this much? I don't care because my
[19:15] thesis is and my framework is is that
[19:18] these assets compound returns over time
[19:21] because of technology because
[19:24] um intelligence per unit of energy is
[19:28] the way the universe works and it
[19:29] compounds into the things that produce
[19:31] it. Layer ones produce massive amounts
[19:34] of intelligence. The coordination layer
[19:35] of the internet, the agentic layer of
[19:37] the internet, the value layer of the
[19:38] internet, they're just undervalued
[19:40] because of liquidity. And I'll come on
[19:41] to liquidity in a bit. So GMI
[19:44] compounding machine very simply that log
[19:46] regression channel we looked at before.
[19:48] So here it is again. Here's in Bitcoin
[19:51] and you see these green dots and it's
[19:53] like oh my god. Yeah, of course. If you
[19:54] were so lucky to be able to buy the
[19:55] bottoms and sell the tops. Yeah, you
[19:57] can. It's pretty simple. What you do is
[20:00] you put in your initial investment.
[20:02] Let's say let's make this more
[20:04] reasonable. Let's make it 25 grand.
[20:07] Okay. So there's your big chunk of
[20:09] savings in. you're at 25 grand and
[20:12] you're going to add
[20:14] another 25 grand. So, you're going to
[20:16] save furiously every time the market
[20:18] gets over one and a half standard
[20:20] deviations oversold.
[20:23] And when it's overbought by two standard
[20:25] deviations, you're going to take some
[20:27] lifestyle chips. So, this is what it
[20:29] looks like. you sold in January 2018 and
[20:33] we took off sorry uh we took off 20% of
[20:38] our Bitcoin and then we bought back in
[20:41] the low and then we bought again in the
[20:43] 2020 crash and then we sold twice
[20:47] in um when it got to two standard videos
[20:49] which is overbought in 2021 and 2022. We
[20:53] bought back again right at the low in
[20:56] 2022 and it's flashing that we should be
[20:58] buying now. This is why I get excited
[21:01] when I see lower prices. Everyone's
[21:02] like, "You [ __ ] scammer. Why did I
[21:04] lose money? I hate you." And I'm like,
[21:06] "This is fantastic. All I need to do is
[21:08] keep saving money so I can invest
[21:11] because
[21:13] it's almost impossible for me that
[21:15] crypto is now over. That it's never
[21:18] going to work. It's all a scam. It's all
[21:20] [ __ ] You rob me of my money, you
[21:22] crypto scammers." It's like, are you
[21:24] [ __ ] insane? It's the coordination
[21:27] layer for the internet. It's not about
[21:29] that stupid shitty coin that you bought.
[21:32] It's about how do you organize the
[21:35] agents
[21:37] to make payments in a digital age at the
[21:39] speed that they require, at the proof of
[21:41] of identity that they require, at the
[21:44] privacy that they require. All of these
[21:47] things require crypto rails. Blockchain
[21:51] technology is a profoundly important
[21:53] technology and AI and blockchain are
[21:57] married at the hip. And people think,
[21:59] "Oh, we're just saying that now just to
[22:01] try and give crypto a beard." It's like,
[22:03] I don't care. Just wait and see. It's
[22:05] obvious. It's [ __ ] obvious. Any of
[22:07] you who use AI, any of you using an
[22:09] agent or anybody who's involved in
[22:11] crypto, these layer ones, the
[22:13] programmable um smart contract layer is
[22:16] incredibly important to all of what what
[22:19] is to come. So, I look at this. Has that
[22:22] trend changed? No. Is the opportunity
[22:24] there? Yes. It's flashing. And then
[22:27] we've got those D mark 9. So, I look at
[22:29] that and I'm like, amazing. Amazing.
[22:32] We're back to basically the same levels
[22:34] we've done like three or four times
[22:35] before, but now we're so oversold that
[22:38] the opportunity set means that the
[22:40] riskreward on an adjusted basis going
[22:42] forwards is extremely high. Now you can
[22:45] think about that and think what's going
[22:47] to be higher in a year's time Nvidia
[22:52] in terms of percentage gains or Ethereum
[22:56] Salana suite Bitcoin
[23:00] it's very hard to argue that Nvidia
[23:02] doubles from here considering where we
[23:05] are in the compute cycle uh where we are
[23:07] in the semicycle uh where we are in the
[23:10] capex buildout cycle but for here for
[23:14] the applications layer of this. Yeah, I
[23:16] can see that. So anyway, so I'm very
[23:19] interested in that. Um, when we go to
[23:22] the QQQ version, so now we're talking
[23:25] about the NASDAQ. Again, this is all on
[23:27] Real Vision. It's all part of the tools
[23:29] that you get once you sign up as a
[23:31] member of Real Vision. There's tons of
[23:33] these dashboards to help you understand
[23:35] what you're doing. So the NASDAQ now is
[23:39] where are we? We are one standard
[23:41] deviation overbought.
[23:43] 13% above fair value. Nothing wild. I
[23:47] mean, really, even if we took lifestyle
[23:49] chips off
[23:52] at one standard deviation, you've only
[23:54] done it twice ever, but you missed that
[23:56] whole rally. And I think you'll miss a
[23:58] massive rally, too. There's a lot going
[24:00] on in cryp in the NASDAQ right now.
[24:02] You've got the index inclusion. People
[24:05] don't realize this, and I've traded this
[24:06] stuff for 30 years, is the index
[24:09] inclusion trade. So you're bringing a
[24:11] monster waiting in which is SpaceX.
[24:13] Everything has to be weighted down. So
[24:16] what you tend to get is firstly
[24:20] so I know this is complicated. So
[24:22] firstly
[24:24] SpaceX comes out
[24:26] short squeeze because not all the order
[24:28] books were filled. Then the arbitrageers
[24:32] start selling that to start thinking
[24:35] about how to position for um post IPO
[24:40] pop. So you get a bit of that, you get a
[24:42] bit of trading, price pulls back, but
[24:44] the big game is the game that's
[24:46] happening now. It's been happening for
[24:47] about a week is all these arbitrageers,
[24:49] all of the hedge funds and some of the
[24:50] index funds start front running the
[24:53] situation where SpaceX gets bought, but
[24:55] these stocks, every single stock gets
[24:57] sold. So what you get is all the stocks
[25:00] in the NASDAQ or a whole bunch of them
[25:01] particularly the big weights get sold
[25:04] and so you're seeing that but the NASDAQ
[25:06] itself holds still and then you should
[25:10] see as the squeeze happens you should
[25:13] see SpaceX squeezing into it but the
[25:15] trade the ARBs are setting in for is
[25:17] shorting the other side and then as the
[25:19] um the index funds
[25:23] sort of computationally just have to do
[25:25] the trade
[25:26] um which is to sell those other shares,
[25:28] they then buy into them, closing out
[25:30] their shorts, and then usually it clears
[25:32] afterwards. So, that's a big thing
[25:34] that's happening
[25:37] that's happening there. And that's one
[25:40] of the reasons the market is volatile
[25:42] right now. We got to get this out of the
[25:43] way. Um, and so that's I think next
[25:47] Monday. Next Monday, next Tuesday should
[25:49] be out of the way. So volatility is
[25:51] there, but I I do think the rotation
[25:53] changes and again something I'm writing
[25:55] about in um RV Pro and also in Real
[25:59] Vision.
[26:01] So let's look at the macro as well. So
[26:03] again, I'm just going to show off
[26:04] because I'm [ __ ] amazing at
[26:07] everything except calling crypto, right?
[26:11] Um
[26:12] I have built out these dashboards
[26:18] and these dashboards these are this is
[26:20] GMI and I'll I'll I'll create versions
[26:21] for real vision as well. Uh this is not
[26:23] released for GMI. This is me working on
[26:25] my own stuff.
[26:28] But let's talk about the everything
[26:29] code. The everything code is the process
[26:31] by which we have to service. In fact,
[26:34] let's just quickly go through the
[26:36] everything code. We got a bit of time. I
[26:37] don't care. I've got nothing to do.
[26:38] Blondie's abandoned me. So, I'm going to
[26:41] go and do this while she's in Florida.
[26:43] Um,
[26:46] the Everything Code. What is the
[26:47] Everything Code? Well, actually, I'm I'm
[26:49] writing a book about this. It's going to
[26:50] come out in October, but the Everything
[26:52] Code is really the most important work
[26:54] at a macro level that I've done. Um, and
[26:59] it's all about demographics. So, as the
[27:01] labor force as the population gets
[27:05] older, the labor force participation
[27:07] rate falls with it because old people
[27:09] don't work. Okay, great. We kind of
[27:11] understand that. You can see the
[27:12] correlation. It's pretty [ __ ]
[27:13] obvious. Then what is less obvious to
[27:17] people and the greatest macro chart of
[27:19] all time, trademarked, um, which nobody
[27:22] else uses because nobody understands it,
[27:24] is very [ __ ] simple. is labor force
[27:27] participation rate falling is exactly
[27:30] the inverse of the US government's debt
[27:32] to GDP. So debt to GDP rises exactly in
[27:36] proportion
[27:38] with the fall in the labor force. I.e.
[27:42] the magic formula GDP growth equals
[27:44] population growth plus productivity
[27:46] growth plus debt growth is old people
[27:50] means lower population growth. Old
[27:53] people means less productivity which
[27:55] means more debt. It's perfectly proven
[27:57] in this chart and that is the story of
[28:00] the world that we live in. And then the
[28:02] other story of the world that we live in
[28:04] is liquidity which is in it red here is
[28:08] the thing that pays the difference. So
[28:11] they print money to pay the debt. That
[28:13] is the everything code and once you
[28:15] understand that you can see it
[28:16] everywhere.
[28:19] And also liquidity is really what what's
[28:23] really driving debt growth is interest
[28:25] payments. And particularly with interest
[28:27] rates as high as they are, interest
[28:29] payments are what's driving debt growth.
[28:31] And so that keeps climbing the
[28:33] inevitable wall wall. Here we've got
[28:35] total liquidity includes bank debt uh
[28:39] bank credits and bank lending because
[28:41] that is part of the equation. The Fed
[28:43] moved away from central bank balance
[28:44] sheets. Then they moved to the bed net
[28:48] liquidity model which was balance sheets
[28:50] plus the TGA plus the reverse repo blah
[28:54] blah blah. That was really all about the
[28:55] reverse repo. They drained all of that.
[28:57] So that went and then they said and
[28:59] they've made it clear Scott Besson,
[29:00] Steve Mirin, Kevin Walsh that they want
[29:04] the banks to provide liquidity. That's
[29:06] the old model because the only two
[29:08] people who can create dollars in the
[29:10] world are banks and the central bank.
[29:14] And here is the bank banks creating
[29:17] liquidity.
[29:18] So that game is the game that is at
[29:21] play. That game is the game that then
[29:25] gives us an interest in liquidity. So
[29:27] where is liquidity right now? If
[29:29] liquidity is the big thing, it drives
[29:30] assets too. So global liquidity is
[29:36] going up. recently it's gone down a bit
[29:39] but you get this this um cyclicality in
[29:44] liquidity that happens seasonally and
[29:46] stuff like that. So there's nothing to
[29:48] see here except liquidity rising. As you
[29:51] can see it bottomed in 2022. This is
[29:54] when we went long the NASDAQ and crypto
[29:56] and have been long ever since. So I know
[29:58] other people have joined at different
[29:59] points but this is where we got long
[30:01] because of liquidity and it's been
[30:03] rising ever since and the markets have
[30:05] gone with it.
[30:07] year on year global liquidity nothing to
[30:10] see you know you get these these um
[30:14] these changes this change this change
[30:17] are all the dollar so the US dollar
[30:20] strengthening right now finally rates
[30:22] are coming down they will come down a
[30:24] lot sharper um again I don't have time
[30:26] to go through all of this right now but
[30:27] I will do on real vision again soon so
[30:30] rates come down sharper um also in um
[30:33] macro investing tool in real vision
[30:35] alpha we go through in excruciating
[30:37] detail every single week. But uh the
[30:40] dollar's too strong. That's what's
[30:42] causing this. Uh we've got the Venezuela
[30:46] and probably Iran sort of onboarding
[30:48] back into dollars. Um so that keeps a
[30:50] dollar bid, but rates are starting to
[30:52] fall, oil starting to fall. I think that
[30:53] all changes, but liquidity leads Bitcoin
[30:56] now. It keeps moving and shifting. And
[30:58] there's a somebody on Real Vision, Sarah
[31:00] Walker, who's been a fantastic part of
[31:02] our community, even though she bugs the
[31:03] [ __ ] out of me, which I joke with her
[31:05] about.
[31:06] um but holds us accountable over things
[31:08] like
[31:10] over the long run global liquidity is
[31:13] the best predictor of asset prices. It's
[31:16] been the highest correlation to Bitcoin
[31:17] about 85% to 87% and for the NASDAQ's
[31:21] about 97 and a half but she rightly
[31:24] pointed out that it shifts and
[31:26] correlations shift and different parts
[31:27] of the liquidity curve shift to Bitcoin.
[31:30] Uh this is where I am right now. Um is
[31:33] total global liquidity seems to be
[31:35] roughly in line with Bitcoin right now.
[31:38] So that seems to be the dollar effect.
[31:39] And we'll we'll talk a bit more about
[31:41] this in a sec. Uh NASDAQ is like has
[31:43] been perfection. We called this this
[31:45] sort of panic area and said look this is
[31:47] disconnected. It's stupid. It's gone
[31:49] back. It trades perfectly. Going back to
[31:52] my US liquidity which I think is the big
[31:54] daddy of this cycle. Sometimes it had
[31:57] been China and again these are shifting
[31:59] variables. I think it's important to
[32:00] understand that things shift and there's
[32:01] no perfection.
[32:05] US liquidity broad year on year is
[32:09] growing at about [clears throat] 3 and a
[32:11] half%.
[32:12] Um, which is okay. It's not great and
[32:16] we'll come a little bit into that in a
[32:18] sec. Uh, narrow liquidity is um,
[32:24] uh, that's it outright.
[32:26] It's moving up again. That was the TGA.
[32:29] um the um government shutdown. It's kind
[32:31] of recovering from that year on year.
[32:34] Not great. So narrow liquidity. What is
[32:36] that? That is um Fed net liquidity plus
[32:41] bank securities holdings. So this is of
[32:44] treasury holdings. So this is the
[32:46] central um the Treasury selling debt and
[32:50] the banks taking it on plus the normal
[32:52] kind of central bank balance sheet etc.
[32:56] um and they're just starting to pick up,
[32:58] but they've been held back by a number
[33:00] of issues and one of them is the flat
[33:01] yield curve. Again, story for another
[33:03] day, but this is what's going on here.
[33:05] M2 is accelerating again. Um US
[33:08] liquidity leads the NASDAQ 100. So, US
[33:11] seems to be the dominant factor right
[33:12] now. Again, it changed over time. Uh
[33:15] most of this is not not a science. Um
[33:17] and it's all basian. So, um I know in
[33:20] the past everyone's got caught in the
[33:21] trap of like, well, the chart says this
[33:24] and therefore that's going to happen.
[33:26] You can't do that. You have to just say
[33:28] contextually this is right. We need to
[33:30] watch for changes. All of that stuff. Um
[33:32] I was never clear enough in explaining
[33:34] that to people. I mean, I've been doing
[33:36] this 35 years. I just assume people
[33:38] understood that. Uh but they don't. Um
[33:41] here's uh narrow liquidity versus
[33:43] Bitcoin. Bitcoin's not again still not
[33:46] doing great. We've got these kind of
[33:47] liquidations going on right now, but
[33:50] comfortably o over the short term.
[33:52] Here's the banks held. This is like are
[33:55] the banks just def um monetizing the
[33:57] central bank balance sheet that's
[33:59] growing at about
[34:02] 6 month 5.4% yearly 3.8. So it's not
[34:07] massive yet, right? So we don't have
[34:10] massive monetary printing. And this is
[34:12] where you get into excess liquidity.
[34:16] Excess liquidity is the amount of
[34:18] liquidity growth in excess of GDP
[34:20] growth. Now, both measures are now
[34:23] positive, but they weren't. And that
[34:25] negative period was a negative period
[34:28] for crypto because if there's no excess
[34:30] liquidity, it will find its home in the
[34:33] most compounding place. And and the
[34:36] place that compounds intelligence the
[34:38] most is
[34:40] um AI. So, it compounded there. But now
[34:43] we've got excess liquidity. means
[34:45] there's more liquidity for investments
[34:48] and this helps us this happens with the
[34:50] business cycle too. As the business
[34:51] cycle gets positive, we get more
[34:53] earnings
[34:55] and you can see that we had this this is
[34:58] M2 version which is not as good but it
[35:00] gives you a long-term history is like I
[35:02] think we're in the 1950s phase where
[35:05] excess liquidity was high at all points.
[35:07] I think we'll do that again. It was also
[35:09] high in the late 90s into the boom and
[35:12] we're starting to go positive here.
[35:15] Productivity which is the main part of
[35:17] that formula is not yet positive versus
[35:20] inflation.
[35:22] So of that of that formula inflation is
[35:25] still eating productivity but what Kevin
[35:29] Walsh has talked about and Scott
[35:30] Besson's talked about is that switches.
[35:33] So that's a there's a whole bunch of
[35:35] stuff there, but generally speaking, I
[35:38] think the cycle extends.
[35:40] I think crypto, I know you don't believe
[35:43] me. Uh that's fine. I've been doing this
[35:45] since 2013. Continue will play catch-up.
[35:48] I think the rotation of leads, so the
[35:51] darlings that you hold won't be the
[35:52] darlings that persist. So just be
[35:55] careful if you're an overly racy sector.
[35:57] The '9s were full of rotations.
[36:00] And have a plan. Have a plan about when
[36:03] you accumulate, when you exit. Why I
[36:05] didn't take lifestyle chips off the
[36:07] table. People like, "You didn't take
[36:08] lifestyle chips is because the [ __ ]
[36:10] indicator didn't give me lifestyle chips
[36:12] to take off, so I don't take them off."
[36:13] So then I end up adding and I've been
[36:15] adding in crypto and I've added
[36:18] recently. I've added several points
[36:20] around this kind of one and a half
[36:21] standard deviation oversold level. And
[36:23] I'm comfortable with that because I've
[36:25] done the work and I think that um the
[36:28] crypto trend continues over time. Um,
[36:30] and I've also had uh tech investments,
[36:33] but again, I'm starting to rotate and
[36:35] look at the different areas of tech.
[36:38] So, okay, hopefully that adds some
[36:40] value. I know it's for those of you in
[36:42] crypto, it's like it's [ __ ]
[36:43] frustrating. You probably hate me. You
[36:45] hate everybody. Um, and then there's the
[36:49] confusion amongst time horizons. You
[36:51] know, one person's got one time horizon,
[36:52] other person cares about the cycle. One
[36:54] person says the cycle's dead. I think
[36:56] it's a midcycle. So, it's all [ __ ]
[36:58] noise. It's all just [ __ ] noise. You
[37:01] just have to focus on what is the big
[37:03] game. What is going to unfuck your
[37:06] future. Unfucking your future is
[37:08] compounding.
[37:10] [ __ ] uh [ __ ] up your future is trying
[37:12] to trade. And there are some people who
[37:15] are good at trading.
[37:17] But I I say this seriously is the best
[37:22] performing brokerage accounts
[37:25] at every brokerage
[37:28] are the ones of dead people.
[37:33] It's because they don't sell.
[37:36] And traders, it's very hard to meet many
[37:39] rich traders. There are lucky traders.
[37:41] There's people who do well for a period
[37:43] of time, but there's very few people who
[37:46] trade that make compounding returns.
[37:49] It's very difficult to do, right? It's a
[37:51] really, really difficult skill set to
[37:54] buy and hold. You could be as dumb as
[37:55] me. I mean, honestly, you can be
[37:57] absolutely stupid and make money as long
[38:01] as you understand where you are in the
[38:03] cycle, what to do, and don't panic. You
[38:07] bought something too high. That's okay.
[38:09] Do you still believe the thesis? Do you
[38:10] have a framework of understanding? If
[38:12] you have a thesis and you have a
[38:14] framework and you truly believe in it
[38:17] and you've asked your AI or gone to the
[38:19] real vision AI, even better, go on the
[38:20] real vision AI, ask it the questions.
[38:22] What do you think of this thesis? Go and
[38:24] ask the the RA. In fact, let me show you
[38:26] this. I haven't [ __ ] showed you this
[38:28] for ages. Um,
[38:31] let's um share a screen. I'll show you a
[38:36] little bit of real vision magic because
[38:37] it is fun.
[38:39] So, let's um go to AI, right? So, we've
[38:43] got the AI. The pulse is what's going on
[38:47] in markets. You can kind of it tells you
[38:49] everything that's been happening. You
[38:50] can dig into these things, find out what
[38:52] the community's been thinking, when they
[38:54] put out trade ideas, all of this kind of
[38:56] stuff. You can see who's been talking
[38:58] about it, the the notes, the ideas that
[39:01] have been done, all of this stuff.
[39:02] Great. Fantastic.
[39:04] Um, and that's only going to improve as
[39:06] we distill the intelligence held within
[39:09] the platform of the sentiment, the
[39:11] ideas, the analysis, all of this, it's
[39:13] all coming into the pulse. Uh, the chat
[39:16] is the real vision model where you can
[39:18] just go and ask even about look any
[39:21] [ __ ] video you see on the platform,
[39:23] any post, you can say, you know, what
[39:25] does this mean?
[39:27] So, Vitali Weber,
[39:32] let's just ask what the real vision
[39:33] brain thinks about his head and
[39:35] shoulders idea in micro strategies.
[39:38] Micro strategies, what a [ __ ] show,
[39:39] right? God, it's pretty [ __ ] obvious,
[39:42] but there we go.
[39:45] Anyway, it explains everything for you.
[39:47] Fantastic. But more importantly, it's
[39:49] all about me
[39:51] because clearly um you're the person I'm
[39:55] the person you want to speak to. There's
[39:57] the real AI mentor. Now, we're going to
[39:59] have more mentors. We'll have an Andreas
[40:01] mentor coming up as well. But this
[40:03] speaks in my voice trained on my content
[40:07] or you can chat. You can give me a
[40:09] chart, analyze it,
[40:12] you can do all of this stuff. So, you
[40:15] don't need to ask me a question. I mean,
[40:17] yes, you can on the platform, get paid
[40:19] a,000 bucks, but you also can just ask
[40:23] me stuff from my perspective. So, it
[40:26] helps you with that. I don't know if
[40:27] this is right. Give me your trade. Give
[40:30] me your trade idea. Let me analyze.
[40:32] Look, I'm an AI. I'm going to [ __ ] it
[40:33] up, but you know, I [ __ ] it up myself.
[40:36] But over time, you'll see it will really
[40:38] add value to it. I mean, I even ask
[40:41] myself questions because it's trained on
[40:43] my content. So, it has this memory of
[40:46] stuff, has memory of the macro investing
[40:48] tool, it has macro um memory of the
[40:50] business cycle stuff. Uh it has also
[40:53] trained on wine and travel and food. So
[40:57] um and books and [snorts] all sorts of
[40:59] stuff. So it has some sort of
[41:00] contextualization about who is me. But
[41:03] it's really bloody useful. Um and it's
[41:05] right there at the top amongst the AIS.
[41:07] Go to the mentors, speak to me, ask me
[41:10] anything, have long conversations with
[41:11] me. I'm here to help. Uh and this is a
[41:14] really cool way of doing it. So let's go
[41:17] across to the Real Vision platform for
[41:20] the last thing. again. I'll we'll put up
[41:22] another I almost said I, but I'm not
[41:24] going to do it. Um cuz I'm skinc's gone
[41:27] down so much. Um the um
[41:31] we'll put up um a couple of thousand
[41:33] bucks for two more questions. So, I've
[41:35] got 10 already picked because they're
[41:37] amazing questions and actually very
[41:39] useful. The point about Real Vision and
[41:40] a community is what you get is people
[41:43] asking the question that the hive mind
[41:45] wants to hear the answer to. And that's
[41:47] why I've chosen many of these. Some of
[41:49] them are just fun, but really a lot of
[41:51] them is is is really about what the hive
[41:53] mind actually wants to know. You know,
[41:55] where did I [ __ ] up? Why am I an idiot?
[41:58] What wine am I drinking? Um,
[42:02] did I ever get anything right? You know,
[42:03] those kind of things. That's what
[42:05] everybody's going to ask me. Um, and is
[42:08] it all over? That's obviously going to
[42:09] come up as a question. But ask, come and
[42:11] ask any question. If you can't get a
[42:13] hold of me, if you're a pro member, you
[42:16] can ask me questions in the AMAs always.
[42:18] And that's an amazing thing where
[42:19] everyone just comes and chats about
[42:20] markets and stuff. Super [ __ ] cool.
[42:23] Nobody else does this in the world. And
[42:25] um also um obviously just use the rail
[42:29] mentor. He's there for you. He's there
[42:30] to be your mentor. So come across real
[42:33] vision. Realvision.com/join
[42:36] orfree or whatever the [ __ ] it
[42:38] is/pricing.
[42:40] If you've been waiting to sign up or
[42:42] resign back up again, because there's a
[42:45] lot of you have not seen what we've
[42:46] done, please come and join us. It's
[42:49] generational discounts, stupid cheap,
[42:52] and it's there to help you. So, see you
[42:55] at Real Vision. And I'm going to refill
[42:58] my drink, and over in Real Vision, we'll
[43:00] get to the questions.