# 🔴【每日要聞】存儲太貴引起公憤：美國消費者起訴三大存儲商，蘋果遊說川普要買長鑫存儲，Coinbase為省錢接入中國大模型！習近平又打稀土牌，制裁日本！｜小翠時政財經 20260629

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkK_tR_Dzw4
Translation: en

[00:01] 大家好歡迎回到小翠時政財經
  Hello everyone, welcome back to Xiao Cui's Politics and Finance.

[00:04] 今天是美東時間2026年的6月29日
  Today is June 29, 2026, Eastern Time.

[00:08] 歡迎收看我們今天的每日要聞節目
  Welcome to our daily news program today.

[00:10] 那新的一周又開始了
  The new week has begun.

[00:12] 我們看一下這個週末啊
  Let's take a look at this weekend.

[00:13] 又有什麼大事發生呢
  What major events happened?

[00:16] 啊那麼從上週四開始啊
  Ah, starting from last Thursday,

[00:18] 突然之間美伊局勢升溫啊
  suddenly the US-Iran situation escalated.

[00:21] 伊朗相繼打擊一艘這個啊
  Iran successively attacked a container ship,

[00:24] 集裝箱船
  a container ship,

[00:25] 一艘承運卡塔爾石油的船隻
  a vessel carrying Qatari oil,

[00:28] 以及科威特和巴林的美國軍事基地啊
  and US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

[00:31] 那麼美國隨後多次實施報復性打擊
  The US subsequently carried out retaliatory strikes multiple times.

[00:35] 美國軍方表示呢
  The US military stated that

[00:36] 週六晚上
  on Saturday night,

[00:37] 連續第二晚
  for the second consecutive night,

[00:38] 對伊朗境內多個目標發動空襲啊
  air strikes were launched against multiple targets within Iran,

[00:41] 這是這個對伊朗之前襲擊船隻的報復
  retaliation for Iran's previous attacks on ships.

[00:46] 啊那麼美國中央司令部呢
  Ah, then the US Central Command

[00:48] 在聲明中稱
  stated in a statement that

[00:49] 最新一輪打擊擊中了伊朗的軍事監視
  the latest round of strikes hit Iran's military surveillance

[00:52] 基礎設施
  infrastructure,

[00:53] 通訊系統防空陣地
  communication systems, air defense positions,

[00:55] 無人機儲存設施和佈雷能力啊
  drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities.

[00:59] 啊所以呢
  Ah, so

[01:00] 兩輪打擊啊
  two rounds of strikes.

[01:01] 報復伊朗
  Retaliate against Iran.

[01:03] 那麼呃周週六呢
  So, uh, on Saturday.

[01:05] 川普對伊朗發出強硬的威脅
  Trump issued a strong threat to Iran.

[01:08] 發帖說伊朗違反了停火協議
  He posted that Iran violated the ceasefire agreement.

[01:10] 因此美國做出回應
  Therefore, the US responded.

[01:12] 打擊了其導彈和無人機儲存地點
  It struck its missile and drone storage sites.

[01:14] 以及沿海的雷達站
  As well as coastal radar stations.

[01:16] 也許會到某個時候
  Perhaps at some point,

[01:17] 我們再也無法保持克制
  we will no longer be able to exercise restraint.

[01:19] 不得不通過軍事手段
  We will have to resort to military means

[01:21] 我們此前已經非常成功開啓的任務
  to complete the mission we have already successfully initiated.

[01:24] 如果真到了那一步
  If it comes to that,

[01:25] 伊朗將不復存在啊
  Iran will cease to exist.

[01:28] 哎嘴炮了嘴炮
  Ah, just talk, just talk.

[01:29] 別理他了
  Don't pay attention to him.

[01:30] 別理他為什麼呢
  Why not pay attention to him?

[01:32] 因為昨天晚上美國期貨市場開
  Because last night, the US futures market opened.

[01:35] 美股期貨市場開盤前一個小時
  An hour before the US stock futures market opened,

[01:38] 哎美國就跟伊朗停止相互攻擊了
  the US and Iran stopped attacking each other.

[01:41] 大家知道嗎
  Did you know?

[01:41] 精准拉盤呢
  Precise market manipulation.

[01:43] 真的是笑死我了啦
  It really makes me laugh.

[01:45] 啊並且說啊
  And it was said that

[01:47] 禮拜二大家就要在卡塔爾多哈會面啊
  on Tuesday, everyone will meet in Doha, Qatar.

[01:50] 討論圍繞圍繞霍爾木茲海峽爭端
  to discuss arrangements surrounding the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.

[01:52] 的安排美國官員表示啊
  US officials stated that

[01:54] 與伊朗的技術談判
  technical negotiations with Iran

[01:55] 預計將在諒解備忘錄的各個領域
  are expected to continue in various areas of the memorandum of understanding.

[01:58] 雙方目前將暫時保持克制
  Both sides will temporarily exercise restraint for now.

[02:01] 船隻可以自由通行
  Ships can pass freely.

[02:03] 哈哈是不是
  Haha, isn't it?

[02:04] 我說嘴炮對不對
  I'm talking nonsense, right?

[02:06] 精准在美股這個開這個期貨上
  Precisely on the opening of futures in the US stock market.

[02:09] 開盤之前啊
  Before the market opens.

[02:10] 立刻釋放
  Immediately released.

[02:11] 嗯這個利好不就是護盤嗎
  Hmm, this good news is just to support the market, isn't it?

[02:14] 唉呀所以我告訴過大家了
  Alas, so I've told everyone.

[02:16] 川普中期選舉為了壓通脹啦
  Trump's midterm elections are to suppress inflation.

[02:18] 他會無所不用其極
  He will go to any lengths.

[02:19] 根本就不會跟伊朗打下去啊
  He won't fight Iran at all.

[02:22] 他剛剛還那個說什麼啊
  He just said what?

[02:24] 汽汽油價格已經快速下降了啦
  Gasoline prices have already dropped rapidly.

[02:27] 零售層面啊
  At the retail level.

[02:28] 任何違規行為大家都要舉報
  Everyone should report any violations.

[02:30] 哎這什麼意思
  Hey, what does this mean?

[02:31] 就是告訴大家了
  It's just telling everyone.

[02:32] 我其實已經把油價打的很低了
  I've actually already driven down the oil prices a lot.

[02:34] 現在你們要是覺得油價貴啊
  Now if you think the oil prices are expensive,

[02:36] 千萬不要來怪我了
  Don't blame me.

[02:37] 都是那些無良資本家乾的了
  It's all those unscrupulous capitalists.

[02:39] 哎所以我告訴大家
  Alas, so I'm telling everyone.

[02:40] 政客都是這樣子的啊
  Politicians are all like this.

[02:41] 堅決不能啊
  Absolutely cannot.

[02:43] 自己出來承擔責任
  Take responsibility themselves.

[02:44] 一定是要甩鍋的
  They must shift the blame.

[02:45] 哈哈一定是要甩鍋
  Haha, they must shift the blame.

[02:47] 反正啊啊
  Anyway.

[02:48] 只要是油價貴啊
  As long as oil prices are high,

[02:50] 全部都是這個無良資本家啊
  It's all these unscrupulous capitalists.

[02:52] 哄抬物價啊
  Inflating prices.

[02:53] 跟我們總統沒有關係了
  It has nothing to do with our president.

[02:55] 哈哈
  Haha.

[02:56] OK那麼這個禮拜的宏觀哈
  OK, so this week's macroeconomics.

[02:59] 我們還有幾個事情要關注
  We still have a few things to pay attention to.

[03:00] 首先就是美國最高法院
  First is the US Supreme Court.

[03:02] 本週啊預計會公佈
  This week, it is expected to announce.

[03:04] 兩項與川普直接相關的關鍵裁決
  Two key rulings directly related to Trump.

[03:07] 一個是川普試圖罷免美聯儲主席
  One is Trump's attempt to remove the Federal Reserve chairman.

[03:09] 那個Lisa cook的那個法律爭議啊
  That legal dispute with Lisa Cook.

[03:12] 那麼第二個是
  The second is

[03:12] 他要限制出生公民權的行政令啊
  His executive order to limit birthright citizenship.

[03:15] 所以這兩個判決啊
  So these two rulings.

[03:17] 這周可能會公佈啊
  May be announced this week.

[03:18] 那川普是特別在意這一點
  Trump cares particularly about this.

[03:20] 但我覺得這兩個他可能都會失敗啊
  But I think he will likely fail on both.

[03:23] 那個最高法院應該不會支持他啊
  The Supreme Court probably won't support him.

[03:25] 其實最高法院
  Actually, the Supreme Court's

[03:26] 的判決
  rulings

[03:26] 我大多數我還是覺得比較認可的
  I mostly find quite acceptable.

[03:29] OK啊
  OK.

[03:30] 那麼還有一個事情
  Then there is another matter

[03:31] 對川普就是利好
  that is favorable to Trump.

[03:32] 美國郵政總長啊
  The US Postmaster General.

[03:35] 嗯美國郵政總長已經出來說了啊
  The US Postmaster General has already said

[03:38] 美國郵政署
  the US Postal Service

[03:39] 將不再為拒絕向聯邦政府
  will no longer deliver mail-in ballots

[03:41] 提供敏感選民資料的州
  to states that refuse to provide sensitive voter data to the federal government.

[03:44] 遞送郵寄選票
  to states that refuse to provide sensitive voter data to the federal government.

[03:46] 哎這個不讓郵寄選票這個事情啊
  This refusal to deliver mail-in ballots

[03:49] 那就對共和黨大大的有利
  is greatly beneficial to the Republican Party.

[03:52] 對民主黨強烈不滿啊
  The Democratic Party is strongly dissatisfied.

[03:53] 因為大家知道
  Because everyone knows

[03:54] 郵寄選票是非常容易被用來收割的
  mail-in ballots are very easily harvested.

[03:58] 這個是事實啊
  This is a fact.

[04:00] 呃一般來說
  Generally speaking,

[04:01] 每次郵寄選票的大多數啊
  most mail-in ballots each time

[04:03] 都是投給民主黨的
  are cast for the Democratic Party.

[04:05] 所以如果美國要取消郵寄選票
  So if the United States wants to cancel mail-in ballots

[04:08] 或者有些州啊啊
  Or if some states

[04:09] 開始從物理上限制你拿游擊選票的話
  Start physically restricting you from obtaining mail-in ballots

[04:13] 那那麼這樣子啊
  Then in this way

[04:14] 對這個共和黨會大大的有利啊
  It would be greatly beneficial to the Republican Party

[04:16] 所以民主黨已經強烈不滿了
  So the Democratic Party is already strongly dissatisfied

[04:18] 估計會採取啊
  It is estimated that they will take

[04:19] 一系列的這個反制措施啊
  A series of countermeasures

[04:21] OK
  OK

[04:23] 啊最後一個消息呢
  Ah, the last piece of news

[04:23] 是美國與哈薩克斯坦
  Is that the United States and Kazakhstan

[04:25] 達成了一項
  Have reached

[04:26] 價值10億美元級別的礦業協議啊
  A mining agreement worth 1 billion US dollars

[04:28] 使一批與川普
  Allowing a group of investors associated with Trump

[04:29] 及美國商務部長
  And the US Secretary of Commerce

[04:31] 存在關聯的美國投資者啊
  To gain access

[04:34] 獲得進入全球最大
  To one of the world's largest undeveloped tungsten reserves

[04:36] 未開發鎢礦儲備之一的機會啊

[04:39] 那麼烏市軍工啊
  So, for military industry, chips, and high-end manufacturing

[04:40] 芯片啊高端製造的關鍵材料啊
  It is a key material

[04:43] 所以啊
  Therefore

[04:44] 這個是美國的這個關鍵礦物的一個啊
  This is the implementation of the US's critical minerals

[04:47] 國家戰略的實施啊
  National strategy

[04:49] 這剛剛在這個哈薩克斯坦啊
  This was just reached in Kazakhstan

[04:51] 達成了一項協議
  An agreement has been reached

[04:52] 反制中國
  To counter China

[04:55] OK這個是宏觀相關的消息
  OK, this is macro-related news

[04:56] 我們接下來看資本市場啊
  Let's move on to the capital markets

[04:58] 啊之前我們一直有說過
  Ah, we have mentioned before

[04:59] 其實現在的美股市場
  That the current US stock market

[05:01] 已經對戰爭豁免了
  Has already exempted itself from war concerns

[05:03] 因為市場始終是相信啊
  Because the market has always believed

[05:05] 呃現在有美國的250週年國慶啊
  That there is the US's 250th anniversary

[05:07] 再加上中期選舉臨近
  Furthermore, with the midterm elections approaching,

[05:09] 川普別無選擇
  Trump has no choice

[05:11] 只能和伊朗保持和平啊
  but to maintain peace with Iran.

[05:13] 所以任何的衝突啊
  Therefore, any conflicts,

[05:15] 嘴炮啊
  verbal sparring,

[05:16] 什麼各種威脅他都可以忽略不計啊
  or various threats can be ignored.

[05:19] 是市場已經大家已經看出來了對不對
  The market has already seen this, right?

[05:22] 啊就是這麼回事
  Ah, that's how it is.

[05:23] 那麼高盛今天出來說
  Then Goldman Sachs came out today saying,

[05:25] 哎呀石油尾部風險消退啊
  Oh, the tail risk for oil has receded,

[05:27] AI估值博弈成市場波動新主軸
  and AI valuation games have become the new main driver of market volatility.

[05:31] 大家還記不記得
  Do you all still remember

[05:32] 伊朗和美國剛打仗的時候
  when Iran and the US were just fighting?

[05:35] 這些投行都是怎麼說的
  How did these investment banks talk?

[05:36] 你們還記得嗎
  Do you remember?

[05:37] 去翻翻他們的核定本
  Go check their reports.

[05:39] 他們是不是跟你說
  Didn't they tell you

[05:40] 今年的油價將永遠處於高位啊
  that oil prices would remain high forever this year?

[05:43] 6個月後油價120
  Oil prices at 120 in 6 months,

[05:45] 一年後油價150
  oil prices at 150 in a year?

[05:46] 是不是跟你說這些話
  Didn't they say these things to you?

[05:48] 哎然後現在他們都
  Ah, and now they all say

[05:49] 哎呀郵件沒有沒有了啦
  Oh, the oil issue is gone.

[05:51] 啊這個事情哦啊
  Ah, this matter,

[05:52] 已經是過去時了
  is already in the past.

[05:53] 所以你看投行的嘴能信嗎
  So, can you trust the words of investment banks?

[05:55] 嗯對吧
  Mm, right?

[05:56] 完全不能信啊
  Completely untrustworthy.

[05:57] 核定本都是不能翻的啊
  Their reports can't even be looked at.

[05:59] 所以
  Therefore,

[05:59] 我們一定要自己保持獨立的判斷啊
  we must maintain our own independent judgment.

[06:02] 如果被投行牽著鼻子走啊
  If you let investment banks lead you by the nose,

[06:04] 你現在大概已經在原油市場虧的
  you've probably already lost so much in the crude oil market

[06:06] 這個底褲都沒有了
  that you've lost your pants.

[06:07] 對不對OK
  Right? Okay.

[06:10] 好嗯
  Alright, hmm.

[06:11] 那麼我們接下來呢
  So, what we'll do next is,

[06:12] 也要說說幾個隱患啊
  we also need to talk about a few hidden dangers.

[06:14] 因為為什麼呢
  Because why?

[06:15] 因為美國股市現在也很脆弱啊
  Because the US stock market is also very fragile right now.

[06:17] 我們之前一直說韓國股市槓桿高
  We've always said that the South Korean stock market has high leverage.

[06:20] 那今天來看看
  So today, let's take a look.

[06:21] 美國股市現在槓桿有多高
  How high is the leverage in the US stock market right now?

[06:23] 好不好難怪巴菲特都說了
  Okay? No wonder Buffett said,

[06:24] 現在美股啊
  The US stock market now,

[06:25] 一座是教堂
  one is a church,

[06:27] 一座是賭場啊
  one is a casino.

[06:28] 那麼大家看看
  So, everyone take a look.

[06:29] 你在教堂還是在賭場啊啊
  Are you in a church or a casino?

[06:31] 美國融資融券餘額5月份同比飆升54%
  US margin debt balance surged 54% year-on-year in May,

[06:35] 已經觸及1.4萬億美元的歷史峰值
  reaching a historical peak of 1.4 trillion US dollars.

[06:39] 與此同時
  Meanwhile,

[06:40] 槓桿ETF的總資產規模在不足70天內
  the total asset size of leveraged ETFs, in less than 70 days,

[06:43] 接近翻倍
  nearly doubled,

[06:45] 到6月3號前後突破2,200億美元槓桿基金
  and around June 3rd, leveraged funds broke through 220 billion US dollars.

[06:49] 自3月底以來
  Since the end of March,

[06:50] 累計買入約3,000億美元
  approximately 300 billion US dollars have been cumulatively purchased.

[06:52] 好大家看看啊
  Okay, everyone take a look.

[06:54] 到底誰在買啊
  Who is buying?

[06:55] 你們有沒有買
  Are you buying?

[06:55] 哈哈這一規模啊
  Haha, this scale,

[06:57] 是很可怕的
  is terrifying.

[06:58] 因為一旦呢
  Because once,

[07:00] 如果短期內需要集中平倉啊
  if there's a need for concentrated liquidation in the short term,

[07:02] 那衝擊力就不寒而慄
  the impact would be chilling.

[07:04] 是不是槓桿可以驅動股價上漲
  Isn't it that leverage can drive stock prices up?

[07:08] 但是它的反噬也會加大股價下跌
  But its backlash will also increase the stock price decline.

[07:12] 我們在韓國已經看到天天熔斷嘛
  We have already seen daily circuit breakers in Korea.

[07:14] 對不對為什麼
  Right? Why?

[07:14] 就是因為槓桿太多啊
  It's because there's too much leverage.

[07:16] 那麼美國最大券商之一的嘉信理財
  Then Charles Schwab, one of the largest brokers in the US,

[07:19] 本月已經收緊了它的保證金要求啊
  has tightened its margin requirements this month.

[07:21] 並對超出新門檻的客戶
  And for customers who exceed the new threshold,

[07:23] 發出追繳通知啊
  they have issued margin calls.

[07:24] 已經開始意識到槓桿太高了啊
  They have begun to realize that the leverage is too high.

[07:28] 槓桿太高了
  The leverage is too high.

[07:30] 但是啊市場還是非常的樂觀啊
  But the market is still very optimistic.

[07:33] 因為從啊
  Because from a fundamental perspective,

[07:34] 公司基本面來說
  the company fundamentals,

[07:35] 公司都相當的不錯啊
  companies are quite good.

[07:38] 摩根斯坦利的金融條件指數顯示啊
  Morgan Stanley's financial conditions index shows that

[07:40] 自伊朗衝突爆發到6月11日
  from the outbreak of the Iran conflict to June 11th,

[07:44] 金融市場啊
  the financial markets

[07:47] 相當於啊
  have effectively

[07:47] 已經加息了31個g點
  already raised rates by 31 basis points.

[07:48] 因為大家看到那個嗯
  Because everyone saw that,

[07:50] 10年期買家收益率上升嘛
  the 10-year buyer yield rose,

[07:51] 等於美元升值嘛
  which means the dollar appreciated.

[07:53] 然而啊股市上漲
  However, the stock market rally

[07:55] 竟然對衝了這31個基點的加息幅度
  actually offset these 31 basis points of rate hikes.

[07:59] 因為股市上漲
  Because the stock market rally

[08:00] 對金融條件是夠貢獻了
  contributed to financial conditions

[08:02] 約-21個基點的寬松效果
  with an easing effect of about -21 basis points.

[08:05] 哼所以你們才會覺得哎
  So you might feel like,

[08:06] 好像哎好像那個怎麼
  it seems like, it seems like how...

[08:09] 國債嗯
  Government bonds, um.

[08:11] 這個呃
  This, uh.

[08:11] 每家收益率一直上漲
  The yield on every bond has been rising.

[08:12] 那好像股市沒有什麼影響啊
  And it seems like the stock market isn't really affected.

[08:15] 對不對利率高怎麼股市沒影響
  Right? Why isn't the stock market affected by high interest rates?

[08:16] 主要是因為股市上漲
  It's mainly because the stock market is rising.

[08:18] 股市上漲對衝了這種效果啊
  The rising stock market has offset this effect.

[08:21] 啊所以呢啊
  Ah, so, ah.

[08:22] 大家自己要看一下啊
  Everyone should take a look for themselves.

[08:23] 現接下來可能會有很大的波動啊
  There might be significant volatility going forward.

[08:27] 臨近中期選舉啊
  With the midterm elections approaching.

[08:29] 民主黨會不停的出牌OK
  The Democratic Party will keep playing their cards, OK?

[08:31] 那麼呃
  So, uh.

[08:32] 最近一直在講的這個加息鬼故事啊
  This ghost story about interest rate hikes that has been circulating recently.

[08:36] 我們的這個新財長沃氏啊
  Our new Treasury Secretary, Yellen.

[08:38] 馬上要再次露面啊
  Is about to appear again.

[08:40] 大家都在關注啊
  Everyone is paying attention.

[08:42] 他會說什麼啊
  What will she say?

[08:43] 6月29號葡萄牙的辛特拉呢
  On June 29th, in Sintra, Portugal.

[08:46] 歐洲央行年度中央銀行論壇會開場
  The European Central Bank's annual central banking forum will open.

[08:50] 那麼7月1號啊
  Then, on July 1st.

[08:51] 我們的沃什主席啊
  Our Chair Yellen.

[08:53] 要出來講話
  Will speak.

[08:55] 7月1號有四位央行行長同時登台
  On July 1st, four central bank governors will appear on stage together.

[08:58] 要啊一個是美聯儲主席
  One is the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

[08:59] 一個是歐洲央行行長
  One is the President of the European Central Bank.

[09:00] 一個是英國央行行長
  One is the Governor of the Bank of England.

[09:01] 一個是加拿大央行行長啊
  One is the Governor of the Bank of Canada.

[09:03] 彭博彭博社說啊
  Bloomberg, Bloomberg News says.

[09:05] 這是2008年金融危機一代的重聚
  This is a reunion of the generation from the 2008 financial crisis.

[09:08] 因為這四位央行行長
  Because these four central bank governors.

[09:09] 都是2022008年的時候
  It was in 2022008.

[09:12] 一起在一線滅火的央行成員
  Central bank members who were fighting fires on the front lines together.

[09:15] 然而18年以後
  However, after 18 years,

[09:16] 各自都坐上了自己國家的頭把交易
  each took the top position in their own country.

[09:19] 央行頭把交易啊
  The top central bank position, ah.

[09:21] 那麼他們會怎麼樣啊
  So what will happen to them?

[09:23] 這這個呃
  This, this uh,

[09:24] 這個啊發揮當時啊
  This, ah, played out at the time, ah,

[09:26] 08年的這個啊
  In 2008, this ah,

[09:28] 對吧啊
  Right? Ah,

[09:28] 大家一起合作的精神
  The spirit of everyone cooperating together.

[09:30] 這現在的關係
  This current relationship,

[09:31] 是不是還如當年這般融洽呢
  Is it still as harmonious as it was back then?

[09:34] 啊那麼我們的這個呃
  Ah, so our, this uh,

[09:37] 沃什主席呢
  Chairman Yellen,

[09:38] 7月1號就會發表演講啊
  will give a speech on July 1st, ah.

[09:40] 那他到底會講什麼啊
  So what will he actually talk about?

[09:42] 大家一定非常關注了
  Everyone will surely be paying close attention.

[09:43] 因為7月2號美國VI 月份的非農啊
  Because on July 2nd, the US non-farm payrolls for June, ah,

[09:46] 叫這個數據就要出來了
  this data is about to be released.

[09:48] 那麼我告訴大家啊
  So, I'm telling you all,

[09:50] 最近咱川總哎
  Recently, President Trump, hey,

[09:51] 又可能又在使壞了啊
  might be up to no good again, ah.

[09:53] 大家知道現在通脹數據很高嘛
  You all know that inflation data is very high right now, right?

[09:55] 對不對啊
  Isn't that right? Ah,

[09:56] 因為剛剛被油價衝擊過啊
  Because it was just impacted by oil prices, ah.

[09:59] 那麼我之前也就有跟大家說過
  So, I've told you before,

[10:01] 實際上啊
  Actually, ah,

[10:02] 哎你看這個沃氏上台以後
  Hey, look, after Chairman Yellen took office,

[10:04] 他組了好幾個小組
  he formed several working groups.

[10:05] 其中有一個叫什麼修改數據去的
  One of them was called something like 'data revision group',

[10:07] 對不對啊
  right?

[10:08] 那我們川總已經提前幫他了哈
  So President Trump has already helped him in advance, ha.

[10:10] 美國經濟分析局BEA啊
  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA.

[10:13] 剛剛宣佈
  Just announced.

[10:14] 要對PCE價格指數的三個分項
  That three components of the PCE price index

[10:18] 進行方法論的討論
  will undergo methodological discussion.

[10:20] 哪三項呢
  Which three items?

[10:21] 第一項電腦軟件及配件哎
  The first is computer software and accessories.

[10:23] 大家看看是不是漲得最狠的東西
  Everyone, look, isn't this the thing that has risen the most?

[10:25] 第二項投資組合管理服務
  The second is portfolio management services.

[10:28] 也是很狠的啊
  Also very aggressive.

[10:30] 股票好嘛
  Stocks, right?

[10:30] 對不對第三
  Correct? Third,

[10:31] 法律服務啊
  Legal services.

[10:33] 這三個要馬上重新修訂的
  These three are to be immediately revised.

[10:37] 這個呃
  This, uh,

[10:38] 數據啊有兩個
  Data, there are two.

[10:40] 恰好是過去一年
  Coincidentally, in the past year,

[10:42] 核心PCE通脹貢獻最大的前四大分項
  the top four components that contributed the most to core PCE inflation

[10:46] 一個就是投資組合管理服務
  One is portfolio management services.

[10:48] 跟大家說這是第二大貢獻
  I'm telling you, this is the second largest contribution.

[10:50] 一個是電腦軟件及配件啊
  One is computer software and accessories.

[10:51] 這個大家就更更加不用說
  This, everyone, goes without saying even more.

[10:52] 對不對好
  Right? Okay.

[10:54] 那麼要對這兩個東西哎
  So, regarding these two items,

[10:56] 重新修訂這個統計方法哈
  to revise the statistical methodology.

[10:59] 對不對通脹怎麼樣降下來哎
  Right? How will inflation come down?

[11:02] 我之前就說過
  I've said before,

[11:03] 我以小人之心度君子之腹
  I'm judging a gentleman by the standards of a petty man.

[11:05] 改數據嘛
  It's about changing data.

[11:06] 當年拜登政府也是這麼做的嘛
  The Biden administration did the same thing back then.

[11:08] 一樣啊對不對
  Same thing, right?

[11:10] 所以如果這三三項數據啊
  So if these three items of data,

[11:12] 呃我們川總給他進行重新的科學的科學的啊修改這個統計方法以後啊
  Uh, after our President Trump scientifically modified this statistical method, uh,

[11:20] 那麼核心PC可能會被他下拉0.2個百分點
  then the core PC might be pulled down by him by 0.2 percentage points.

[11:23] 這個是同行算的
  This was calculated by peers.

[11:24] 我是不會算這個東西啊
  I wouldn't calculate this thing, uh.

[11:26] 但是啊至少在說明啊
  But, uh, at least it indicates that,

[11:28] 我們川總要改數據了啊
  our President Trump is going to change the data, uh.

[11:30] 為什麼要改數據啊
  Why change the data?

[11:31] 為了降息嘛
  To lower interest rates.

[11:33] 對不對啊
  Right?

[11:33] 當然是為了降息
  Of course, it's to lower interest rates.

[11:34] 你不改數據啊
  If you don't change the data,

[11:35] 那就降不了息了哈
  then you can't lower interest rates, ha.

[11:37] 所以嘴炮啊都是哎
  So the rhetoric is all, hey,

[11:39] 都是說給韭菜聽的
  it's all said for the retail investors to hear.

[11:40] 實際動作啊
  Actual actions, uh,

[11:42] 大家要看明白
  everyone needs to understand clearly.

[11:43] 說不定今年還有降息哦
  Maybe there will be interest rate cuts this year, oh.

[11:46] 會等來哦
  It will come, oh.

[11:47] 啊你們看情況吧
  Uh, you see how it goes.

[11:48] 好不好哎
  Okay, hey.

[11:49] 然後我們到時候啊
  And then, at that time, uh,

[11:51] 據說我們啊握師主席啊
  it is said that our Chairman Powell, uh,

[11:53] 要公佈一下啊
  will announce, uh,

[11:55] 要向外界這個說明一下
  and explain to the outside world,

[11:56] 他5個工作小組是怎麼進行的
  how his five working groups proceeded.

[11:58] 唉說不定他也說唉
  Alas, maybe he will also say, alas,

[12:00] 我們數據統計噢
  our data statistics, oh,

[12:01] 我們現在也有新的這個啊
  we now also have a new, uh,

[12:03] 方法論了
  methodology.

[12:04] 我我們覺得以前的統計方
  We, we think the previous statistical method

[12:06] 法不對我們現在新修改
  was incorrect, we have now newly revised it.

[12:07] 哈哈哈反正啊
  Hahaha, anyway, uh,

[12:09] 最終的結果肯定是唉
  the final result will definitely be, alas,

[12:11] 通脹會下來OK
  inflation will come down, OK.

[12:13] 好那希望不是這樣啊
  Well, I hope that's not the case.

[12:15] 我就隨便說說OK OK
  I'm just saying, okay, okay.

[12:17] 那麼接下來我們說亞股的反應啊
  Next, let's talk about the reaction of Asian stocks.

[12:20] 啊日經高指是昨天收
  Ah, the Nikkei High Index closed yesterday.

[12:21] 收漲0.2% 日本東證指數收漲0.5%
  It closed up 0.2%, and the Japanese TOPIX closed up 0.5%.

[12:24] 韓國首爾綜指收跌0.2% 啊
  The Korean Seoul Composite Index closed down 0.2%, ah.

[12:27] 台股上漲0.96%
  Taiwan stocks rose 0.96%.

[12:28] 台積電上漲1.28%
  TSMC rose 1.28%.

[12:30] 收在2,370塊
  Closing at 2,370.

[12:32] 好昨天韓國大家看到又上演v型反轉
  Okay, yesterday, as everyone saw, Korea staged a V-shaped reversal again.

[12:35] 對不對
  Right?

[12:36] 為什麼說韓國政府出來就是啊
  Why is it that the Korean government came out and...

[12:38] 韓國總統李在明
  Korean President Lee Jae-myung

[12:39] 主持三大超級項目發佈會
  presided over the announcement of three major super projects,

[12:41] 宣佈將在西南部投資約800萬億韓元
  announcing an investment of approximately 800 trillion won in the southwest

[12:44] 建設4座芯片工廠
  to build four chip factories,

[12:46] 由三星和SK海力士各自承建兩座
  with Samsung and SK Hynix each undertaking two.

[12:50] 目標是在5年內將d軟生產能力翻倍
  The goal is to double the DRAM production capacity within five years.

[12:53] 與此同時
  Meanwhile,

[12:54] 韓國計劃在2035年前
  Korea plans by 2035

[12:56] 於i AI數據中心領域
  in the AI data center sector

[12:58] 投入逾1,000萬億韓元
  to invest over 1,000 trillion won

[13:01] 並將在中青地區投入81萬億韓元
  and will invest 81 trillion won in the central-youth region

[13:04] 建設芯片分裝工廠
  to build chip packaging factories.

[13:06] 啊所以啊
  Ah, so,

[13:07] 才這個股市利轉鬧
  that's why the stock market turned around.

[13:10] SK海力士本來從盤中一度跌6%啊
  SK Hynix, which had fallen 6% at one point during trading, ah.

[13:13] 立刻反彈收漲了
  Immediately rebounded and closed higher.

[13:15] 但是我告訴大家
  But I told everyone,

[13:17] 韓國股市的隱含波動率指數
  The implied volatility index of the Korean stock market

[13:19] 禮拜一卻創下歷史新高
  On Monday, it hit a historic high.

[13:21] 什麼意思啊
  What does that mean?

[13:22] 哎說明哦
  Ah, it indicates that

[13:23] 韓國人哦還在不停的加槓桿啊
  Koreans are still continuously increasing leverage.

[13:27] 就是這麼回事好
  That's just how it is. Okay.

[13:28] 那麼大家別忘了啊
  Then, everyone, don't forget,

[13:30] 我們我們最近從美股學到了一個呃
  We, we recently learned something from the US stock market, uh,

[13:33] 資本市場的喜好是什麼
  What is the preference of the capital market?

[13:34] 是他們很討厭資本支出
  Is that they really dislike capital expenditures.

[13:36] 是不是
  Isn't that right?

[13:36] 那你看韓國有這麼大一筆資本支出
  Then you see Korea has such a large capital expenditure.

[13:40] 哎馬上我跟你說
  Ah, immediately, I'll tell you,

[13:41] 存儲股不見得啊會吸納這個利好
  Storage stocks may not necessarily absorb this positive news.

[13:44] 為什麼
  Why?

[13:45] 因為資本開支會侵蝕現金流啊
  Because capital expenditures will erode cash flow.

[13:48] 這麼大的資本投入
  Such a large capital investment,

[13:49] 那未來產能釋放的時候哎
  Then when future production capacity is released, ah,

[13:51] 你的利潤率就會被
  Your profit margins will be

[13:52] 影響啊
  Affected.

[13:53] 所以這個鬼故事可能馬上就會來了啊
  So this ghost story might come very soon.

[13:56] 所以破產這件事情哈
  So, this matter of bankruptcy, ha,

[13:58] 我們覺得對公司來說當然要破產
  We think that for companies, of course, they should go bankrupt.

[14:00] 嗯可是股市不是這麼想的啦
  Hmm, but the stock market doesn't think so.

[14:03] OK好
  OK, good.

[14:05] 那麼接下來
  Then, next,

[14:05] 我們看看韓國的目前的這個風險啊
  Let's look at the current risks in Korea.

[14:08] 風險一定要提示啊
  Risks must be pointed out.

[14:09] 一定要提示
  Must be pointed out.

[14:10] 從成交量來看啊
  Looking at the trading volume,

[14:12] 截至5月份
  As of May,

[14:13] 韓國個人投資者已經高佔比高達71%
  South Korean individual investors already account for a high proportion of up to 71%.

[14:17] 海外投資者佔比只有24%
  Overseas investors account for only 24%.

[14:20] 本地機構只有5%
  Local institutions account for only 5%.

[14:22] 整個韓國股市都是散戶支撐的
  The entire South Korean stock market is supported by retail investors.

[14:25] 太可怕了
  It's terrifying.

[14:26] 知道嗎年初至今啊
  Do you know, from the beginning of the year until now,

[14:28] 外資淨流出韓股127萬億韓元
  foreign capital has net flowed out of Korean stocks by 127 trillion won.

[14:31] 而個人投資者和本地機構
  While individual investors and local institutions

[14:33] 分別淨買入76萬億韓元和42萬億韓元
  respectively net bought 76 trillion won and 42 trillion won.

[14:38] 尤其是5月以來啊
  Especially since May,

[14:40] 主動外資是加速流出
  active foreign capital has been accelerating its outflow.

[14:42] 本地機構中
  Among local institutions,

[14:43] 養老金和險資
  pension funds and insurance companies

[14:44] 也分別賣出了4.6萬億韓元
  also sold 4.6 trillion won respectively,

[14:46] 和3.7萬億韓元
  and 3.7 trillion won.

[14:48] 然而
  However,

[14:49] 散戶卻逆勢繼續淨買入62萬億韓元
  retail investors have continued to net buy 62 trillion won against the trend,

[14:53] 成為市場上上漲的主要買盤
  becoming the main buying force for the market's rise.

[14:57] 另外外資禮拜一的時候
  Additionally, when foreign capital on Monday

[14:59] 賣出了7.7萬億韓元的股票
  sold 7.7 trillion won worth of stocks,

[15:02] 創歷史最大單日淨賣出規模
  it set a historical record for the largest single-day net selling volume.

[15:06] 這個時候就考驗韓國散戶的家底了
  At this point, it tests the financial reserves of South Korean retail investors.

[15:09] 能不能一直啊
  Whether they can continuously,

[15:11] 把這個外資的這個流出量
  absorb this outflow of foreign capital.

[15:13] 給它對衝回來
  Hedge it back.

[15:15] 只要家底口袋一旦掏空
  As soon as the family's pockets are emptied,

[15:18] 立刻就是暴跌
  it will immediately plummet.

[15:19] 那麼呃
  So, uh,

[15:20] 根據目前韓國市場的這個槓桿率測算
  according to the current calculation of the leverage ratio in the South Korean market,

[15:23] 基本上如果韓國股市跌16%
  basically, if the South Korean stock market falls by 16%,

[15:28] 叫一大堆人就要爆倉了啊
  a large number of people will face margin calls.

[15:30] 16%是條紅線
  16% is a red line.

[15:32] 大家可以去觀測一下啊
  Everyone can observe it.

[15:34] 那麼呃
  So, uh,

[15:35] 對於SK海力士和三星來說
  for SK Hynix and Samsung,

[15:38] 他們不光面臨這個韓國股市脆弱
  they not only face the fragility of the South Korean stock market,

[15:41] 波動大的風險
  and the risk of high volatility,

[15:42] 他們在美國目前被起訴了啊
  they are currently being sued in the United States.

[15:45] 被起訴三星
  Samsung is being sued,

[15:46] SK海力士和美光
  SK Hynix, and Micron.

[15:47] 這三家掌握全球d RAM市
  These three chip giants, which control the global DRAM market,

[15:51] 上周在美國聯邦法院遭集體訴訟啊
  were collectively sued in a U.S. federal court last week.

[15:55] 被指借向人工智能
  They are accused of using the pretext of a strategic transition to artificial intelligence

[15:58] 高帶寬內存HBM戰略轉型的名義啊
  and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to collude

[16:02] 協同壓縮傳統DREM產能
  in compressing traditional DRAM production capacity,

[16:04] 致使相關價格在過去四年內暴漲7倍
  causing related prices to skyrocket sevenfold in the past four years.

[16:08] 這個訴訟
  This lawsuit

[16:09] 6月25日在加州聯邦法院提起啊
  was filed in a California federal court on June 25th.

[16:12] 原告方代表是在近期價格上漲週期中
  The plaintiffs' representatives stated that during the recent price increase cycle,

[16:16] 購買了含商用DREM產品的消費者
  Consumers who purchased products containing commercial DREM

[16:18] 及企業
  and businesses

[16:20] 說不定就是要去買買這個啊美
  might just go buy this, ah, American

[16:23] 這個蘋果
  this Apple

[16:23] 漲價的這個對吧
  product's price increase, right?

[16:25] 產品的這些個消費者以及一些企業啊
  Consumers and some businesses for these products

[16:28] 用不起啊
  cannot afford them.

[16:29] 那麼這個訴狀呢
  So, this lawsuit,

[16:30] 啊就是會訴狀啊
  ah, it's a lawsuit.

[16:32] 將蘋果公司近期對iPad啊
  Regarding Apple's recent comprehensive price increases on product lines like iPad,

[16:35] 這個Mac等產品線的全面提價
  and Mac,

[16:38] 原以為直接損害的案例啊
  a case originally thought to be direct damages,

[16:41] 視其為提起訴訟的直接導火索啊
  is seen as the direct trigger for filing the lawsuit.

[16:44] 並指控三家公司協同削減DDR three
  It accuses three companies of colluding to reduce DDR3

[16:47] DDR four等傳統內存產能
  DDR4, and other traditional memory production capacity,

[16:50] 人為製造內存末日式的供給短缺
  artificially creating a doomsday-like shortage of memory supply,

[16:53] 以預價格暴漲
  to preemptively cause prices to skyrocket.

[16:55] 所以我說過
  So I said,

[16:55] 他們漲價讓消費電子全部啊
  their price increases made all consumer electronics,

[16:59] 大家買不起
  unaffordable for everyone.

[16:59] 引起了公憤
  This caused public outrage.

[17:01] 那麼這個事情呢
  Now, this matter,

[17:02] 它畢竟只是一個民事訴訟
  is after all just a civil lawsuit.

[17:05] 民事訴訟啊
  A civil lawsuit,

[17:06] 如果訴訟成功啊
  if the lawsuit is successful,

[17:08] 也就最多賠點錢啊
  at most, they'll just pay some money,

[17:09] 影響不大
  with little impact.

[17:11] 但是歷史上啊
  But historically,

[17:12] SK海力士啊和這個三星
  SK Hynix and Samsung

[17:15] 曾經被美國啊罰重罰 20
  were once heavily fined by the US 20

[17:18] 大概是2000年。
  It was around the year 2000.

[17:19] 2000年初 2000 呃年代初。
  Early 2000s, early 2000s, uh, early in the decade.

[17:22] 那麼美國司法部當時呃反壟斷部門呢就啊就是調查。
  Then the US Department of Justice's, uh, anti-monopoly department investigated.

[17:28] 那認定啊他們啊這三家企業通過私下溝通啊。
  It was determined that these three companies, through private communication,

[17:33] 大家就是互相商量哎大家說好啊我們都給這個客戶什麼價格。
  everyone discussed amongst themselves, agreed, what price would they offer to this customer.

[17:39] 那這樣子的話啊客戶就不可能相互比價。
  In this way, customers could not compare prices.

[17:41] 所以他們內部啊提前進行了溝通啊。
  So they internally communicated in advance.

[17:44] 給什麼客戶報什麼價。
  What price to quote to which customer.

[17:46] 而且雙方啊還這個互相監督啊。
  And both parties also supervised each other.

[17:49] 大家有沒有遵守提前約定好的價格啊。
  Whether everyone adhered to the prices agreed upon in advance.

[17:53] 那麼這件事情在美國就屬於了這個觸犯反壟斷法了。
  This matter in the United States was considered a violation of anti-monopoly law.

[17:57] 因此三星在2005年10月份認罪啊支付了3億美元的罰款並且多名高管坐牢。
  Therefore, Samsung pleaded guilty in October 2005, paid a fine of 300 million US dollars, and several executives were imprisoned.

[18:04] 海力士也罰了1.85億美元也有多名高管坐牢啊。
  Hynix was also fined 185 million US dollars, and several executives were also imprisoned.

[18:08] 所以他們在美國是有黑歷史的。
  So they have a dark history in the United States.

[18:11] 所以因因此呢最近啊啊這個消費電子品漲價嘛。
  Therefore, recently, consumer electronics prices have increased.

[18:14] 哎這個大家的這個啊記憶又回來了。
  This, uh, memory has returned for everyone.

[18:17] 對這兩家公司的惡感又回來了。
  Yes, the negative feelings towards these two companies have returned.

[18:20] 所以啊已經發生了集體訴訟啊
  So, a class action lawsuit has already happened.

[18:22] 但是這個事情呢
  But this matter,

[18:23] 最多就是啊
  At most,

[18:24] 聲譽上有些影響
  there will be some impact on reputation,

[18:25] 輿論上有一些影響啊
  and some impact on public opinion.

[18:27] 但是呢可對對他們整個公司
  But for their entire company,

[18:30] 而且不會傷筋動骨啊
  it won't be crippling.

[18:32] 大家放心啊
  Everyone can rest assured.

[18:33] 因為不是美國官方啊
  Because it's not the US government,

[18:34] 或者司法部啊
  or the Department of Justice,

[18:35] 或者反壟斷部門繼續去調查他
  or an antitrust department continuing to investigate them.

[18:37] 如果是被反壟斷部門調查
  If they were investigated by an antitrust department,

[18:38] 那就危險了對不對啊
  that would be dangerous, wouldn't it?

[18:40] 再加上現在內存都不夠啊
  Besides, there isn't enough memory now,

[18:42] 怎麼會去調查他了對不對
  so why would they investigate them, right?

[18:44] AI還要不要玩了啊
  Are we still going to play with AI?

[18:45] 所以最多就可能是賠點錢啊
  So at most, they might just have to pay some money.

[18:47] 可能是要賠點錢
  They might have to pay some money.

[18:48] OK好
  OK, good.

[18:50] 那麼存儲現在這麼香餑餑啊啊
  So, with storage being so in demand right now,

[18:53] 台積電就開始啊想退路了啊
  TSMC has started to think about an exit strategy.

[18:56] 台積電正在將本土廠商
  TSMC is bringing in domestic manufacturers

[18:58] 納入其核心AI芯片供應鏈啊
  into its core AI chip supply chain

[19:01] 以降低對國際三大經營體巨頭的依賴
  to reduce reliance on the three major international tech giants.

[19:04] 啊啊

[19:04] 據媒體報道
  According to media reports,

[19:05] 台積電和華邦啓動合作
  TSMC and Waferbond have initiated cooperation.

[19:07] 雙方合作領域為晶圓對晶圓堆疊啊
  The cooperation area between the two parties is wafer-to-wafer stacking,

[19:11] 先進3D分裝技術
  and advanced 3D packaging technology.

[19:13] 華邦將提供DRAM等記憶體新源
  Waferbond will provide new sources of memory such as DRAM

[19:16] 與台積電的邏輯製成晶圓
  and logic process wafers from TSMC,

[19:18] 共同進行垂直堆疊啊
  to jointly perform vertical stacking.

[19:20] 台積電呢
  As for TSMC,

[19:21] 此才此前呢
  This was previously.

[19:23] 主要是依賴三星SK海力
  Mainly relying on Samsung, SK Hynix.

[19:25] 士和美光三三家嘛
  And Micron, the three companies.

[19:27] 現在呢就是說
  Now, it is said that.

[19:28] 把自己本土的台灣企業扶持起來啊
  Support its own local Taiwanese enterprises.

[19:31] 那這對台灣是一個重大的利好
  This is a major benefit for Taiwan.

[19:33] 因為一旦進入了台積電的供應鏈啊
  Because once it enters TSMC's supply chain.

[19:36] 以後就可以叫板這三家巨頭
  In the future, it can challenge these three giants.

[19:39] 而且這對存儲行業啊
  And this is also for the storage industry.

[19:41] 也是一個緩解價格憂慮啊
  It is also a relief from price concerns.

[19:43] 緩解供應擔憂啊
  Relieving supply concerns.

[19:45] 對不對啊
  Right?

[19:46] 所以嘛東西不夠啊
  So when things are not enough.

[19:48] 大家都會想辦法哎
  Everyone will find a way.

[19:49] 像台積電就比較要臉對不對
  Like TSMC, it's more reputable, right?

[19:51] 所以找自己啊
  So it finds itself.

[19:52] 扶持自己本土的企業
  Supporting its own local enterprises.

[19:54] 那蘋果就不要臉對不對
  Then Apple is shameless, right?

[19:55] 要去買中國貨
  It wants to buy Chinese goods.

[19:56] 哈哈OK
  Haha, okay.

[19:57] 那麼接下來我們來說說美股的消息啊
  Next, let's talk about news from the US stock market.

[20:00] 上個禮拜呢
  Last week.

[20:01] 美股跌得很慘對不對啊
  The US stock market fell badly, didn't it?

[20:03] 那我們從數據上就能看出來啊
  We can see from the data.

[20:04] 上周對衝基金是拋售了這個美美股
  Last week, hedge funds sold US stocks.

[20:08] 科技股的數量創十年來最大記錄哈
  The number of tech stocks sold set a ten-year record.

[20:11] 科技基金淨流出創歷史新高啊
  Net outflows from tech funds reached a record high.

[20:14] 其中半導體板塊連續8天遭淨賣出啊
  Among them, the semiconductor sector was net sold for 8 consecutive days.

[20:18] 佔科技股拋售額的一半
  Accounting for half of the tech stock sell-off.

[20:20] 科技七巨頭連續5周遭遭減持啊
  The seven tech giants have been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks.

[20:24] 倉位逼近三年低點

[20:26] 美國股票單周左上周淨流出85億美元

[20:29] 是2002026年3月以來首次錄得資金外流

[20:33] 此前一周

[20:34] 剛剛經歷了創紀錄的

[20:36] 1,192億美元的淨流入啊

[20:39] 唉所以你看

[20:39] 流入1,192

[20:41] 流出就85億零頭嘛

[20:43] 對不對啊

[20:43] 沒有沒有感覺

[20:44] 哈哈

[20:45] 所以呢唉

[20:46] 這個季度的美股可能還會啊創下新高

[20:50] OK

[20:52] 但是呢呃

[20:53] 這個美股現在恐懼資本支出的鬼故事

[20:56] 依然在上演啊

[20:57] 高盛最新研究表示啊

[20:59] 核心超大規模雲計算企業

[21:02] 他們6月份迄今啊

[21:04] 已經累計下跌18%啊

[21:07] 創下該群體自metta IPO以來

[21:09] 最差的單月表現啊

[21:12] 啊大規模的

[21:13] 這個AI

[21:13] 資本支出能否轉化為實質性的營收

[21:17] 將成為7月第二季度

[21:19] 財報季的核心考驗

[21:21] 那麼

[21:21] 有研究機構的最新報告數據顯示啊

[21:24] 我看到這個數據還比較樂觀

[21:26] 他說2026年第一季度啊

[21:27] 全球AI營收已經達到250億美元

[21:30] 連續第二個季度

[21:32] 超過行業估算的210億美元

[21:34] 芯片和數中心的折舊成本

[21:37] 這說明

[21:38] AI基礎設施已經可以自己養活自己了

[21:42] 啊大家還記得這個折舊的鬼故事嗎

[21:44] 對不對啊

[21:45] 人家現在掙的錢啊

[21:46] 已經夠折舊了啊

[21:48] 已經超過了折舊

[21:50] 那麼啊這個節點啊

[21:52] 這是一個快捷節點

[21:53] 我想講講過這個折舊的鬼故事

[21:54] 對不對折舊啊

[21:56] 貪5年或貪6年

[21:57] 五六年以後

[21:58] 這些東西還是能掙錢

[22:00] 只不過說在會計意義上歸零啊

[22:02] 但是你看人家現在掙的錢哎

[22:04] 超過了你們測測算這個折舊嘛

[22:07] 對不對啊

[22:08] 所以呢就打了這個折舊的鬼故事啊

[22:11] 啊那麼投啊

[22:13] 你會發現

[22:13] 好像目前TOKEN價格在降低啊

[22:16] 實際上是因為目前很多雲巨頭

[22:18] 他們也學存儲

[22:19] 開始簽長期協議了

[22:21] 那麼簽長期協議是為了什麼

[22:23] 提前鎖定一些現金流

[22:26] 好提前鎖定

[22:27] 謝謝因為簽長期協議

[22:29] 所以在偷啃價格上哎

[22:31] 可能哎就是固定了嘛

[22:33] 對不對一個價格

[22:34] 所以他的這個偷啃價格上漲

[22:35] 就會下來啊

[22:36] 但他不會下來很多的

[22:37] 因為長期協議他都有兜底的啊

[22:39] 所以呢大家可以呃去看一下

[22:42] 目前啊實際上投控還是呃

[22:45] 算力還是供不應求的啊

[22:46] 只不過是因為一些雲廠商

[22:48] 迫於這個資本支出的壓力啊

[22:50] 他們開始也學存儲

[22:52] 弄了一些長期協議

[22:53] OK

[22:55] 很有意思是

[22:55] 我今天看到一個事

[22:56] 給我樂死了

[22:57] 大家還記得嗎

[22:58] 哎那個呃

[23:00] 華爾街啊

[23:00] 天天給大家講那個鬼故事

[23:03] 那個什麼AI泡沫呀

[23:04] 什麼唉呀

[23:05] 這個科技公

[23:07] 呃這些個雲巨頭的支出啊

[23:09] 唉以後根本就是收不回來利潤

[23:11] 但是我告訴大家

[23:12] 你知道他們自己用成什麼樣啊

[23:14] 你這個巴克蘭啊

[23:16] 對410名固定收益投資者調查

[23:18] 目前約52%的機構投資者

[23:21] 主要使用AI進行研究

[23:23] 哦有

[23:24] 其次是對衝基金 44%

[23:26] 他們用AI處理和分析大量數據啊

[23:29] 市場數據

[23:30] 然後呢啊

[23:32] 27%的對衝基金

[23:33] 使用AI進行建模和風險分析

[23:35] 而純多頭基金經理的22%

[23:38] 資產所有者約17%

[23:40] 運營合規報告以及投資決策啊

[23:43] 在這些群體當中

[23:44] 各佔比10%15% 啊

[23:46] 說明啊

[23:47] 整個華爾街自己用AI用的風生水起啊

[23:50] 結果給我們講故事說

[23:52] 唉呀AI要完蛋啦

[23:53] 資本支出啊

[23:54] 錢要收不回來

[23:55] 所以我跟你們說

[23:56] 全部都是騙子哈

[23:58] 一群騙子對吧

[24:00] 自己天天用AI炒股啊

[24:02] 他跟你說AI賺不到錢

[24:03] 哎你你們信不信他

[24:04] 所以我說我們要相信我們自己啊

[24:06] 我們自己每天都在用這些AI啊

[24:08] 這個AI真的幫我們很多

[24:10] 所以人家跟你說

[24:11] AI這個東西哦

[24:12] 哎沒用的啦

[24:12] 全部都是泡沫了

[24:13] 你信嗎對不對

[24:15] 你自己的使用體驗嘛

[24:16] 那其實那些個呃

[24:18] 華爾街那些個投行也是一樣的啊

[24:19] 自己天天用的不亦樂乎

[24:21] 人家給你講

[24:21] 哎呀這他們的錢啊

[24:22] 投資的錢都收

[24:23] 不回來呢

[24:24] 這全都是壞蛋吶

[24:27] 對吧口是心非很討厭的啦

[24:29] OK好

[24:31] 那麼接下來我們就說蘋果啊

[24:32] 上個禮拜我們好像剛剛在擔心哦

[24:34] 蘋果可能要去找那個長信存儲

[24:36] 謝謝這位朋友啊

[24:37] 那昨呃週末的時候

[24:39] 金融時報啊

[24:40] 就開始報道說6位知情人士透露

[24:42] 蘋果正向美國政府有稅啊

[24:45] 尋求獲准採購長信存儲的內存芯片啊

[24:49] 啊馬上哦

[24:50] 蘋果就有動作

[24:52] 那我覺得他可能是為了報復美光啊

[24:54] 因為美光不是抽他臉呢

[24:56] 對不對啊

[24:57] 說他當年怎麼怎麼壞啊

[24:59] 呃然後呢

[24:59] 他現在就馬上啊

[25:01] 就是說啊

[25:02] 我去買強生

[25:03] 純屬我倒覺得他不一定哦

[25:04] 是是一定能下到單

[25:06] 但是啊

[25:07] 在輿論場上對美光進行一種反制啊

[25:11] 這個是合理的啊

[25:12] 那麼我看到這個

[25:13] 蘋果供應鏈的一個知名分析師啊

[25:15] 郭明奇呢

[25:16] 他說蘋果遊說白宮的真正驅動力啊

[25:20] 並非單純的降本需求

[25:21] 而是全球內存供應芯片啊

[25:23] 這個缺口啊

[25:25] 持續到2027年啊

[25:26] 就是結構性的壓力

[25:28] 那麼美國的這個對長興啊

[25:31] 其實並沒有禁止啊

[25:33] 就是企業向他採購

[25:34] 因為這個嗯

[25:36] 長興目前是在美國的1260H名單里

[25:39] 這個名單本身

[25:40] 是不禁止美國企業向長興存儲採購的

[25:43] 所以呢但是蘋果呢

[25:45] 卻主動去尋求政策背書啊

[25:48] 那麼

[25:49] 他是出於未來的一種預防性的考量

[25:52] 萬一啊

[25:53] 突然之間川普對長興的這個實施制裁

[25:56] 那他的供應鏈又要斷了啊

[25:58] 所以呢它是一種預防性的動作

[26:00] 那麼這個動作本身呢

[26:02] 也是在敲打美光啊

[26:04] 啊至於他是不是真的能從呃長興

[26:06] 拿到這個存儲呢

[26:08] 不知道

[26:09] 但是我看國內很多人對此也不樂觀

[26:12] 因為他覺得長興目前啊

[26:14] 國內的市場都做不過來啊

[26:16] 國內的訂單啊都無法滿足

[26:18] 根本就沒有這個餘力啊

[26:20] 再向蘋果供貨

[26:22] 除非把國內企業全部砍單

[26:24] 還有呢就是有呃

[26:25] 有些企業

[26:26] 就國內企業

[26:27] 已經急著去向長興簽長期協議啊

[26:30] 為的就是怕自己產能被蘋果擠掉嘛

[26:32] 對不對因此長興呢

[26:35] 也沒有就是說非蘋果不可

[26:37] 類似於是這個意思

[26:39] 另外還說呢

[26:40] 是長興目前的定價

[26:41] 也沒有比美光他們便宜很多啊

[26:44] 大概就便宜10%吧啊

[26:47] 所以呃

[26:47] 便宜的程度好像也沒有那麼的吸引人

[26:51] 所以呢啊

[26:52] 他說這個事情

[26:53] 蘋果可能僅僅只是啊

[26:55] 在輿論上回擊一下美光

[26:58] 事實上他可能還是不

[27:00] 無無法直接用這個中國供應鏈

[27:03] 來解決目前的短缺問題啊

[27:05] 那麼接下呃

[27:06] 我們可以再關注一下是不是真的這樣

[27:09] 然而啊

[27:10] 這個算例告急這個事情是真實的

[27:13] 你看啊大家都要去找中國買便宜貨

[27:16] 我今天分面就做啊

[27:17] 啊那麼算例告急有多嚴重呢

[27:20] 今天就有那個媒體爆出來說谷歌啊

[27:22] 今年3月份啊

[27:24] 告知這個metta

[27:26] 無法滿足其全部Jimmy的算力需求啊

[27:29] 並對這家社交媒體巨頭

[27:31] 實施了使用上限

[27:32] 那麼金融時報還報道說呢

[27:34] 這個限制到現在也沒有解除

[27:37] 已經導致棉塔多個內部AI項目

[27:39] 遭到干擾和延誤啊

[27:41] 受此影響呢

[27:42] Meta已經要求員工

[27:43] 提高AI算力的使用效率

[27:45] 在內部推行對AI TOKEN的精打細算

[27:49] 而Metta並非孤立啊

[27:51] 多情之多名多位知知情人士提出啊

[27:54] 呃其他的谷歌企業客戶

[27:56] 同樣受到程度不一的限制啊

[27:59] 難怪谷歌今年呃

[28:01] 這個月初

[28:02] 不是找馬斯克

[28:03] 簽了9.2億美元的算力租賃協議嘛

[28:06] 啊當時

[28:07] 我還以為是因為他是space s股東嘛

[28:09] 那實際上他確實內部算力嚴重不足啊

[28:13] 啊那麼算力不足

[28:14] 已經導致很多企業的TOKEN賬單啊

[28:17] 都無無力承擔嘛

[28:19] 對不對所以呢

[28:20] Coinbase今天啊

[28:21] 他的這個首席執行官呢

[28:23] 在x上還發文呢啊

[28:25] 說這個啊

[28:26] 怎麼樣讓這個TOKEN

[28:27] 使TOKEN使用量現在指數級增長啊

[28:30] 但是我們公司的AI支出啊

[28:33] 能夠保持不變呢

[28:34] 他說哎

[28:34] 那我們不如不要用美國的大模型

[28:37] 美國大模型那麼貴啊

[28:38] 呃呃

[28:39] 那個呃寬貝斯自己要

[28:41] 現在啊

[28:42] 把這個什麼質樸旗下那個GLM 5.2

[28:45] 以及北京月之暗面旗下的什麼Kimi 2.7

[28:49] 啊這兩個開源模型啊

[28:51] 已經接入到他自己的

[28:53] 這個工程師的默默認模型里

[28:55] 這樣子呢

[28:56] 啊他就可以節約了啊

[28:59] 那麼CEO說呢

[29:00] 自從接了中國的大模型以後呢啊

[29:03] 91%的員工從來沒有觸及過使用上限哈

[29:07] 就是這個賬單啊

[29:08] 就被控制住了

[29:10] 所以啊

[29:11] 中國大模型現在已經登堂入室

[29:14] 進入美國了

[29:16] 原因就是因為美國的頭肯太貴

[29:18] 美國大模型公司太貴了

[29:21] 那麼到底中國大模型的第定價優勢

[29:24] 能夠在美國搶到多少市場份額呢

[29:28] 會不會衝擊到SRP和open AI呢

[29:31] 啊這個到時候我們要再觀察

[29:32] 但是據我自

[29:33] 己的判斷

[29:34] 我認為不太可能衝擊他們

[29:36] 因為啊

[29:37] 中國的大模型畢竟能力有限啊

[29:39] 他們只能做一些最基本的工作啊

[29:42] 一些比較高級的工作

[29:45] 肯定大家也不放心

[29:46] 讓啊中國大模型來做

[29:48] 肯定都是美國大模型來做

[29:49] 而且這些中國大模型

[29:50] 也都是流通美國大模型嘛

[29:53] 對不對

[29:53] 所以能力上如果要有所保障啊

[29:56] 就不會去用中國大模型

[29:58] 可能是比較基本的一些東西啊

[30:00] 數據整理一下啦

[30:01] 或者什麼文檔做一做啦

[30:02] 那種最基本的工作啊

[30:04] 就交給他們去做啊

[30:06] 所以呢呃

[30:07] 可能美國中國的大模型

[30:08] 如果不被美國禁止的話啊

[30:11] 能在美國搶到一些低端的業務量啊

[30:14] 低端的業務量OK

[30:17] 啊那麼老黃啊

[30:18] 昨天啊

[30:18] 我看出來有人爆了他一個黑料啊

[30:21] 是我們之前提過

[30:22] 非常有名的一家那個分析機構啊

[30:24] SEMI analysis這家機構啊

[30:27] 他說他們最近和很多雲廠商啊

[30:30] 就是包工頭們啊

[30:31] 那高管談話

[30:33] 結果啊發現這些啊

[30:35] 就是雲巨頭啊

[30:37] 這這些高管對老黃啊

[30:39] 諸多不滿呢

[30:40] 說如果他們的集群中

[30:42] 有非英偉達的網絡設備啊

[30:45] 或者他們的雲服務商提供的是AMD

[30:48] GPU啊或者是TPU啊

[30:50] 谷歌的

[30:51] 那麼英偉達就會對他們進行報復哈

[30:54] 啊他們覺得這種報復呢

[30:55] 包括不提供早期的配額分配

[30:58] 或者不再支持潛在的這個IPOVC的融資

[31:02] 當然啊他們說呃

[31:04] 大型超大規模的雲廠商啊

[31:07] 那幾個頭部啊

[31:08] 因為

[31:08] 那當然是不可可能去制裁他們的

[31:10] 對吧因為他們有更強的購買力啊

[31:12] 就是一些

[31:13] 新興的雲提供商

[31:15] 一些小型包工頭啊

[31:17] 他們認為

[31:18] 英偉達一直在使用這種高壓政策

[31:21] 迫使他們只能買英偉達的產品

[31:26] 這個是老黃啊

[31:28] 剛剛被爆出的一個黑料

[31:30] 那麼有可能他就

[31:32] 因為他就有可能

[31:33] 遭受美國政府的這個反壟斷調查啊

[31:37] 啊如果是這進行

[31:38] 要進呃

[31:39] 就有威脅打壓或者限制的對吧

[31:42] 他們去用其他的嗯

[31:43] 這個呃就是供應商的話

[31:46] 那自然就會被觸犯美國的反壟斷法啊

[31:49] 啊所以這個事情

[31:50] 不知道後續

[31:51] 會不會有更多的猛料爆出來

[31:53] 我這剛看到一些小八卦了啊

[31:56] 那然後呢

[31:56] 這家分析機構說呢

[31:57] 有一些新雲端的高管呢啊

[32:00] 甚至開始悄悄考慮啊

[32:02] 提供TPU或AMD的GPU啊

[32:04] 以避免受到英偉達的壓力

[32:07] 哈哈就是不想自己過度依賴英偉達

[32:10] 一直以以免啊被英偉達報復哈

[32:13] 那麼大家知道

[32:14] 英偉達自己養了很多白手套嘛

[32:15] 對吧呃

[32:16] MBIS也他入股對吧

[32:18] 然後那個科維維斯他入股

[32:19] 那你會發現

[32:20] 這兩家公司完全淪為英偉達白手套

[32:23] 那

[32:23] 就不可能去採用別的公司這個產品嘛

[32:26] 那我們一直覺得是他們啊

[32:28] 就是心甘情願做英偉達白手套

[32:30] 那麼目前好像啊

[32:31] 從這個消息來看啊

[32:33] 他們好像是被迫的

[32:34] 哈哈所以這個故事就不知道了啊

[32:36] 這個因為英偉達去給他們了

[32:38] 給他們錢

[32:39] 對不對啊

[32:40] 給他們了

[32:40] 各種這樣呃

[32:42] 支持嘛還呃

[32:43] 動不動就買他們股票啊

[32:45] 還幫他們帶貨

[32:46] 大家老黃最近啊

[32:48] 前兩天剛剛出來

[32:49] 又給科威布和MBIS帶貨啊啊

[32:51] 說哎

[32:52] 你們應該去買

[32:53] 他們的股票啦

[32:54] 對不對啊

[32:54] 我這兩家公司啊

[32:56] 這個呃這個TOKEN以後漲價呃

[32:59] 那個他們的這個雲業務啊

[33:01] 那以後的算力供不應求啊

[33:02] 這些公司它只會越來越稀缺

[33:05] 剛剛給自己的小弟帶貨啊

[33:07] 但是從這個報道我們又發現

[33:09] 他們私底下似乎又對英文男不滿啊

[33:11] 其實他們說的這個新雲雲巨頭

[33:13] 新型的這個雲服務商啊

[33:15] 其實就是說這兩家

[33:16] 我覺得就是說這兩家啊

[33:18] 所以啊

[33:18] 大家看看會不會有新的這個哎

[33:20] 八卦出來啊

[33:21] 萬一萬一啊

[33:23] 萬一因為他遭受反壟斷調查啊

[33:26] 那對股價又是重創啊

[33:28] 就看老黃怎麼出來救場好不好

[33:31] 我覺得老黃做事情還是比較

[33:33] 怎麼說呢

[33:34] 說難聽一點

[33:34] 圓滑啊對吧

[33:36] 說好聽一點啊

[33:37] 就是周到

[33:38] 所以我覺得他應該不會犯法吧

[33:40] 哈哈OK啊

[33:42] 這就是美國相關的消息啊

[33:43] 那麼接下來我們說說中國哎

[33:46] 中國a股截至收盤啊

[33:47] 滬指漲1.16%

[33:48] 深成指漲0.19%

[33:49] 創業板指漲0.54%

[33:51] 港股截至收盤

[33:52] 恆生指數漲1.57%

[33:54] 恆生科技指數漲3.23%

[33:55] 恆生生物科技指數漲超6%

[33:58] 啊啊

[33:58] 終於啊有所反彈啊

[34:00] 跟著全球股市一起走啊

[34:02] 那麼呃

[34:03] 昨天我就看到那個上證報記者啊啊

[34:06] 獨家披露說中國的聯想集團啊

[34:09] 聯想集團不僅是這長期協議客戶啊

[34:13] 還和SK海力士

[34:15] 三星啊

[34:15] 簽有這個存儲產品的長期供貨協議啊

[34:19] 那麼啊甚至現在啊

[34:21] 他們呃

[34:22] 他們要去找這個長興

[34:23] 要簽什麼30億合同

[34:25] 也是長興長期協議啊

[34:27] 啊所以

[34:28] 長新存儲這家企業

[34:29] 一旦馬上在a股上市

[34:31] 一定是被捧的不得了啊

[34:33] 被捧的不得了

[34:34] 光蘋果的訂單意向就足夠炒了好幾倍

[34:38] 股價出來了

[34:39] OK好

[34:40] 那麼最後一個消息

[34:41] 哎在皇上

[34:43] 咱皇上又制裁日本吶

[34:45] 打稀土牌啊啊

[34:47] 2026年的6月29號

[34:49] 商務部發了兩份公告

[34:51] 第一份是20家日本實體

[34:53] 被列入出口管制管控名單啊

[34:55] 禁止中國出口經營者

[34:57] 向這些實體出口兩用物項

[34:59] 也禁止境外組織和個人

[35:01] 把原產於中國的兩用物項

[35:02] 轉移或提供給這些實體

[35:05] 那麼名單里包括防衛研究所啊

[35:07] 陸上裝備研究所

[35:09] 艦艇裝備研究所

[35:10] 航空裝備研究所及三菱電機

[35:13] 三菱重工啊

[35:14] 川崎等相關檢都

[35:15] 軍工類的

[35:16] 那麼第二份呢

[35:17] 是另外20家日本實體業

[35:20] 被列入關注名單

[35:21] 關注呢它不是直接禁止

[35:23] 但是會被嚴格審批

[35:25] 出口商呢

[35:26] 不能走通用許可

[35:27] 就是得特事特辦啊

[35:29] 單獨來批

[35:30] 如果許可不通過啊

[35:31] 那也是不可以出口的

[35:33] 那麼關注名單里呢

[35:35] 就有什麼三井ENS啊啊

[35:37] Terra John啊

[35:39] 什麼a C s l三菱原子呃

[35:43] 燃料日本原燃啊

[35:45] 富士通網絡解決方案

[35:47] 日立高端系統

[35:49] 小松相關企業

[35:50] OKI相關企業等等啊

[35:51] 反正都是日本的一些啊

[35:53] 需要用到稀土的一些企業啊

[35:56] 那麼再次被中國制裁啊

[35:59] 那日本方面已經表達了不滿了

[36:01] 那看看日本會不會反制中國啊

[36:04] 哎

[36:04] 因為日本有很多拿捏中國的東西嘛

[36:07] 哎你AI還要不要玩吶啊

[36:09] 對不對你很多原材料找中

[36:11] 要找日本進口啊

[36:12] 那日本也限制出口好了

[36:13] 對不對啊

[36:14] 我看看日本會不會啊

[36:16] 反制好

[36:17] 那麼呃週末的時候呢

[36:19] 發生了一件事情啊

[36:20] 就是這個呃

[36:21] 中國版的911對不對

[36:23] 美國朝陽區呢啊

[36:25] 這個他們的官方通報說是啊

[36:28] 就是哎

[36:30] 有一架那個輕型運動航空器啊

[36:33] 在飛行中撞一座高層建築啊

[36:37] 機上僅駕駛員一人已死亡啊

[36:39] 現場呢有13人受傷

[36:41] 哈

[36:42] 啊但是實際上我

[36:43] 我看這個網上扒出來

[36:45] 像是中信銀行的一名高管吶

[36:47] 估計是因為這個哎

[36:50] 估計被皇咱皇上討討薪討的太嚴重啊

[36:54] 已經還不出錢了

[36:55] 就報復社會啊啊

[36:57] 去撞自己中信的大樓啊

[36:59] 撞完以後中信股價還大漲啊

[37:01] 就就不理解中國

[37:05] 哎

[37:05] 現在啊

[37:06] 你看以前我們覺得什麼農民工可憐的

[37:09] 現在啊這個中產啊

[37:11] 金融啊這種高級金領啊啊

[37:14] 都遭遇鐵拳啊啊

[37:16] 工資要退回

[37:17] 獎金要退回是吧

[37:19] 然後還被限制人身自由啊啊

[37:21] 這樣子的話

[37:22] 這個社會的以後只有皇上一個人有錢

[37:25] 其他人全部什麼共同貧窮啊

[37:27] 這個可以想象對不對

[37:29] 好那麼最後我們來說說世界杯啊

[37:31] 世界杯有兩個小八卦

[37:33] 跟大家分享一下啊

[37:34] 首先韓國隊

[37:35] 已經在世界杯小組賽遭到淘汰啊

[37:38] 對此韓國總統李在銘啊啊

[37:40] 公開表達了極大的震驚和不滿啊

[37:43] 並正式要求國家體育部

[37:45] 對球隊的提早出局展開徹底調查啊

[37:48] 韓國這個韓國的主教練侯明甫啊

[37:51] 已宣佈辭職

[37:52] 那麼李在明在x鐵上發帖啊

[37:54] 對這個韓國足協啊

[37:56] 怎麼能任命侯明甫為教練啊啊

[37:58] 提出嚴重的質疑啊

[37:59] 批評其在選帥時啊

[38:01] 沒有將能力放在首位

[38:03] 啊說這其中有私利啊

[38:06] 說有私利啊

[38:07] 這肯定有八卦啊

[38:08] 由於國家隊啊

[38:10] 這個韓國的國家隊

[38:11] 是動用了大量納稅人的資金

[38:12] 和國家資源的嘛

[38:14] 所以呢啊

[38:15] 政府對這個事情啊

[38:16] 進行嚴厲譴責

[38:18] 那麼我看了韓國隊的三場比賽

[38:20] 我其實都看了

[38:21] 但是我確實能夠看出來啊

[38:23] 呃這個韓

[38:24] 這支韓國隊沒有鬥志

[38:26] 再加上啊

[38:27] 呃韓這個亞洲一哥啊

[38:29] 啊孫新民狀態很差啊

[38:31] 甚至上半場呃

[38:33] 第二場比賽時候

[38:34] 只踢了上半場

[38:36] 立刻就被這個呃這個呃主教練換下啊

[38:39] 這是非常不應該

[38:40] 按理說就算呃孫興民的狀態不好

[38:43] 但是他畢竟是啊超級巨星

[38:45] 亞洲一哥啊

[38:46] 那韓國隊的主心骨和精神領袖

[38:48] 你也得讓他留在場上

[38:50] 對不對啊

[38:50] 給他更多的表現機會

[38:51] 匆匆忙忙就把他撤下

[38:53] 如此不給他面子啊

[38:55] 他是隊長

[38:56] 可見啊

[38:56] 韓國隊內部是存在很大的問題的啊

[38:59] 那麼根據我我看

[39:00] 他們這個李在明的態度

[39:02] 應應該是把這個責任啊

[39:04] 甩在這個主教練的身上

[39:06] 那麼說啊

[39:06] 那球員之間啊

[39:08] 是不是有有有什麼投訴啊

[39:10] 有可能但是淘汰了啊

[39:12] 淘汰就淘汰

[39:12] 第三場踢得更加沒有鬥志

[39:14] 按理說第三場是要拼命的對不對

[39:16] 韓國隊啊

[39:17] 真的是像來上班一樣的

[39:19] 就是有踢沒踢的啊

[39:20] 能踢平也行啊

[39:21] 輸了就輸了吧

[39:22] 我沒有看出來任何鬥志啊

[39:24] 但這這種事情在日本上就沒

[39:26] 日本是多麼的頑強啊

[39:28] 是謹慎的獨苗

[39:29] 但日本隊呢

[39:29] 這次抽籤啊

[39:30] 真的是狗屎運啊

[39:32] 巨爛啊巨爛啊

[39:33] 踩了狗屎啊啊

[39:34] 反正是無論小組第一

[39:36] 小組第二

[39:36] 小組第三啊

[39:37] 無論怎麼出現全部打強隊啊

[39:40] 所以今天日本馬上要去打啊

[39:42] 這個巴西了

[39:43] 我支持日本隊掀翻巴西哎

[39:45] 日本當年把韓國呃

[39:46] 把把德國都能幹掉哈

[39:48] 巴西算什麼

[39:49] 這屆巴西真的不是很強啊

[39:51] 真的不是很強

[39:52] 日本隊我支持他好不好啊

[39:54] 雖然概率上肯定還是巴西隊高一點啦

[39:56] 啊但是我支持日本隊啊

[39:58] 亞洲獨苗好不好

[39:59] 日本來扛OK好

[40:02] 那麼還有阿根廷的消息啊

[40:03] 阿根廷啊

[40:04] 大家看

[40:04] 梅西這一屆已經馬上又要拿金靴了啊

[40:07] 啊創下這個呃世界杯進球史啊

[40:10] 已經超過那個克羅澤哎

[40:11] 你現在排在第一名

[40:12] 僅射手榜啊啊

[40:14] 狀態如有神助啊

[40:16] 但是阿根廷政府很有意思啊

[40:18] 阿根廷政府已經向美國國土安全部啊

[40:20] 聯邦調查局啊

[40:21] 等國際機構

[40:22] 遞交了一份

[40:23] 包含35,000名被禁人員的黑名單啊

[40:27] 說讓美國禁止這些人

[40:29] 進入美國境內的世界杯球場

[40:31] 觀看阿根廷國家隊的比賽

[40:33] 為什麼呢

[40:33] 因為這些名單里有很多都是啊

[40:37] 壞蛋有13,000名是拖欠撫養費的父親啊

[40:42] 對不對你連孩子的撫養費你都不付

[40:44] 你竟然在美國買這麼貴的球票啊

[40:47] 我支持阿根廷啊

[40:48] 我支持阿根廷政

[40:49] 阿根廷政府好樣的

[40:51] 對吧美國球票多少貴

[40:52] 我剛去看過嘛

[40:53] 對不對那麼貴的球票啊

[40:55] 這些個人啊

[40:56] 為了足球啊

[40:57] 連孩子的撫養費都不付啊啊

[40:59] 只有35,000名名單

[41:01] 可見阿根廷這個國家有多瘋狂啊

[41:04] 全民大概就就是風風靡足球啊啊

[41:07] 什麼錢都都可以

[41:08] 房子都可以賣掉

[41:09] 大家為了看世界杯啊

[41:11] 所以啊阿

[41:12] 根廷拒絕他們入場啊

[41:13] 我覺得這是好事情啊

[41:15] 這真的是好事情啊

[41:16] 非常非常這樣的行為應該多一些啊

[41:18] 啊因為美國球票真的很貴了啊

[41:20] 其他國家應該也要效仿了對不對

[41:23] OK啊

[41:24] 那麼我禮拜六的時候啊

[41:26] 自己呃去了一趟現場看英格蘭的比賽

[41:29] 給大家稍微聊一聊現場看球的感受啊

[41:32] 啊只能說真的很好啊

[41:35] 氛圍真的很好但是呢

[41:37] 啊

[41:37] 哎

[41:38] 這個國際足聯呢開黑店也是真的啊

[41:40] 他那個紀念品商店你們不要去買啊

[41:42] 貴到離譜啊知道嗎

[41:44] 貴到離譜

[41:45] 基本上是外面買的一一倍以上

[41:47] 然後裡面呢

[41:48] 場館裡有各種各樣的贊助商的

[41:50] 這個攤位啊

[41:52] 然後你可以啊吃啊喝啊買東西啊

[41:54] 當然都很貴啊

[41:55] 都很貴但是現場看球氛圍真的好

[41:58] 我這次運氣很好

[41:59] 我運氣很好的

[42:00] 因為我買的那個位置啊

[42:02] 正好在那個呃

[42:04] 英格蘭下半場就是進球的那個位置

[42:08] 就是下半場他們不是呃進了兩個球嗎

[42:11] 那兩個球都在我眼前進的啊

[42:12] 我正好買在那個球門那邊的位置啊

[42:15] 所以呢看得特別特別清楚

[42:17] 就在我眼前進的兩個球啊

[42:18] 所以我我這次呢

[42:19] 運氣還真的蠻好的啊

[42:21] 那麼比賽的氛圍也非常好啊

[42:23] 結束以後

[42:23] 賽前賽後結束呢

[42:24] 大家一起高唱啊

[42:26] 英國的這個代表歌曲

[42:27] 一個叫when the war一一個是hey Joe啊

[42:30] 大家這都是啊

[42:31] 英國非常知名的這個這個歌曲啊

[42:34] 那麼已經成為啊

[42:35] 英國隊這個比賽勝利以後啊

[42:37] 大家的標準曲目啊

[42:39] 全場一起高唱啊

[42:40] 所以現場看球氛圍真的是

[42:42] 非常好啊

[42:42] 當然球票也非常的貴啊

[42:45] 球票也可以非常

[42:45] 我希望我英格蘭這次啊

[42:47] 可以好一點啊

[42:48] 其實英格蘭所在下半區

[42:50] 我覺得還不是很難了啊

[42:52] 就是接就是

[42:53] 怎麼說呢

[42:54] 呃客觀因素比較差

[42:56] 就比如說啊

[42:57] 這個16進8的時候呢

[42:58] 要去海拔2千米的地方

[43:00] 打東道主墨西哥啊

[43:02] 實力上嘛

[43:03] 肯定打過

[43:03] 但是這個氣候啊

[43:05] 天時地利啊

[43:06] 都不在你這邊啊

[43:07] 對不對啊

[43:07] 氣候那麼糟糕

[43:09] 然後呢呃

[43:10] 巴禁斯如果磕掉了這個墨西哥

[43:13] 下一場呢

[43:14] 打巴西打巴西

[43:15] 去邁阿密打

[43:16] 邁阿密又熱又悶啊

[43:17] 氣候又非常的不行

[43:18] 歐洲人都受不了

[43:19] 最近歐洲人都都都在都在裝空調

[43:22] 對不對啊

[43:23] 熱死了很多人啊

[43:24] 所以他們這個氣候啊

[43:26] 來回跋涉啊

[43:27] 其實影響真的很大

[43:29] 那麼如果磕掉了巴西呢

[43:31] 接下來要面對啊

[43:33] 阿根廷

[43:34] 其實這一次阿根廷也沒有很強

[43:37] 但是呢呃

[43:38] 就是希望啊

[43:39] 依然可以磕掉阿根廷以後

[43:41] 對吧阿根廷是復仇嘛

[43:43] 對不對復仇

[43:44] 然後磕掉阿根廷呢

[43:45] 如果進決賽哎

[43:46] 最好磕掉西班牙

[43:48] 為什麼呢

[43:48] 哎也是復仇

[43:49] 對不對世界杯也復仇

[43:51] 歐洲杯也復仇啊

[43:52] 那這樣子啊

[43:53] 那就是本世紀最大的爽劇啊

[43:55] 就完成啊

[43:56] 所以我在意淫啊

[43:57] 我意淫啊

[43:58] 從牌面上看呢啊

[43:59] 英格蘭啊

[44:00] 其實啊還是實力不如這個西班牙

[44:04] 和這個法國啊

[44:05] 但是呢球場誰知道呢

[44:07] 對不對啊

[44:08] 說不定說不定還是可以創造奇跡啊

[44:11] 所以呢我的期待放得很低啊

[44:14] 但是我希望應該可以奪冠啊

[44:15] 30年沒有看到了對不對

[44:17] OK

[44:18] 大家有什麼要問的嗎

[44:23] 請問看一場現場足球要多少美元

[44:25] 如果小組賽啊

[44:26] 就是看你的這個球隊強不強

[44:29] 比如說都些熱門球隊啊

[44:30] 像英格蘭是比較貴的呃

[44:32] 因為英國人有錢了啊

[44:33] 然後像德國呀

[44:35] 什麼阿根廷啊

[44:36] 什麼那個巴西啊

[44:37] 法國這些都是非常啊主流的

[44:39] 這些個有很多很多粉絲

[44:40] 他們這些球場會比較貴

[44:41] 但是你看一些小國家對打

[44:43] 可能就便宜一點啊

[44:44] 那麼呃

[44:45] 最差最差的位置大概也得幾百美金吧

[44:48] 啊

[44:48] 那超稍微好一點呢

[44:49] 幾千美金啊

[44:50] 再好一點上萬美金

[44:52] 哈哈對不對

[44:53] 那如果是淘汰賽

[44:54] 那更貴啊

[44:55] 淘汰賽美國隊第一場比賽啊

[44:57] 在灣區打

[44:57] 那灣區據說啊

[44:59] 門票最便宜5,000塊一張

[45:00] 哈哈哈這都是美金啊美金

[45:11] 現在可以定投黃金嗎

[45:13] 人在日本

[45:15] 老公突然對投資感興趣啊

[45:18] 放幾年定投黃金啊

[45:20] 你定投黃金的目的是什麼呢

[45:22] 你是為了要像股市一樣盈利嗎

[45:26] 還是說只是做一個資本配置啊

[45:28] 因為我一直跟大家說

[45:29] 黃金只能做資本配置

[45:30] 你不能把它當股票來炒啊

[45:32] 所以你先要想明白啊

[45:34] 自己的呃資產配置里

[45:35] 是不是一定要配黃金這個東西

[45:39] 如果沒有英格蘭

[45:41] 小崔會支持其他英國隊如蘇格蘭嗎

[45:43] 不會我只會支持美國隊

[45:44] 哈哈因為我是看英超的啦

[45:47] 看英超看了很多年

[45:48] 所以才會啊

[45:49] 對英格蘭有有好感

[45:50] 因為本身就都是英超球員

[45:52] 比較比較認識嘛對不對

[45:57] 高盛是不是在做空腦和RKLB啊

[46:00] 不知道不知道

[46:04] 淘汰賽還去現場看嗎

[46:06] 哎錢包沒有那麼多了

[46:08] 窮死了看不起了

[46:09] 除非進決賽啊

[46:11] 因為進決賽啊

[46:12] 如果進決賽

[46:13] 場地就是我昨天去看的那個場地

[46:16] 但是決賽的票哎

[46:18] 可能以我的財力是買不起的

[46:21] 除非我英格蘭進決賽啊

[46:23] 那我可能忍忍啊

[46:24] 掏錢去買啊

[46:25] 否則我一般是不會去看的OK

[46:29] 最近剛建倉

[46:30] 現在適合入納指嗎

[46:32] 哎這些個大盤隨便買好不好

[46:34] 隨便買

[46:36] 上周科技股跌

[46:37] 軟件股漲

[46:37] 是不是軟件股有反轉的可能

[46:39] 哎想多了啦

[46:41] 每次都是這樣啦

[46:42] 對吧那資金出來

[46:43] 總要有一個地方可以去啊

[46:45] 那軟件現在是非常便宜嘛

[46:47] 對吧所以有時候會去拉一下

[46:49] 但你看之前也發生過啊

[46:51] 呃主流敘事

[46:52] 我覺得目前還沒有明顯的跡象啊

[46:54] 要拋棄硬件股

[46:59] 好吧好

[47:00] 那今天就跟大家分享這麼多啊

[47:02] 我們啊明天再見啊

[47:04] 希望今天大家啊

[47:05] 看球愉快

[47:06] 今天有很多世界杯比賽啊

[47:07] 最近我們都看球愉快

[47:09] 好不好好

[47:09] 祝大家生活愉快

[47:10] 操盤愉快

[47:11] 拜拜