# 🚗 BYD : The biggest SCAM of the car industry ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tS_fJJxMjn4
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] For about 100 years, the global car industry was dominated by three countries: Germany, Japan, and the United States.
  大约100年来，全球汽车行业一直由三个国家主导：德国、日本和美国。

[00:08] Out of them came the names that define modern driving: Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Ford, Honda, BMW.
  它们诞生了定义现代驾驶的名字：丰田、大众、梅赛德斯、福特、本田、宝马。

[00:14] These weren't just companies, they were the pride of entire nations and the backbone of their economies.
  这些不仅仅是公司，它们是整个国家的骄傲，也是其经济的支柱。

[00:19] But in the space of three years, it's been a bloodbath.
  但在短短三年内，却是一场血洗。

[00:22] Mercedes watched its profit collapse by 28%.
  梅赛德斯公司的利润暴跌了28%。

[00:24] Porsche lost 92% of its bottom line in a single year.
  保时捷在一年内损失了其净利润的92%。

[00:29] Stellantis, the group behind Jeep, Peugeot, and Fiat posted a $26 billion loss, the worst in its history.
  Stellantis，即Jeep、标致和菲亚特背后的集团，公布了260亿美元的亏损，这是其历史上最严重的亏损。

[00:34] Volkswagen announced 15,000 job cuts.
  大众汽车宣布裁员15000人。

[00:39] Behind every single one of these blows, the same name keeps coming back: BYD, a company that until 2003 was still producing nothing but simple batteries.
  在每一次打击背后，同一个名字反复出现：比亚迪，一家直到2003年还只生产简单电池的公司。

[00:48] Back then, the very idea that they could one day compete with Tesla was so absurd that Elon Musk himself couldn't hold back a laugh when asked about them on live American television.
  那时，他们有一天能与特斯拉竞争的想法是如此荒谬，以至于埃隆·马斯克在接受美国直播电视采访被问及他们时，自己都忍不住笑了起来。

[00:56] Have you seen their car?
  你看过他们的车吗？

[00:58] Today, Musk
  如今，马斯克

[01:00] isn't laughing anymore.
  不再笑了。

[01:02] BYD sells more electric cars than anyone on the planet.
  比亚迪销售的电动汽车比地球上任何人都多。

[01:05] How did a small battery workshop bring the entire car industry to its knees in less than a decade?
  一个小型电池车间是如何在不到十年的时间里让整个汽车行业屈服的？

[01:11] What's their secret weapon?
  他们的秘密武器是什么？

[01:13] And why is nobody talking about what's really happening behind the curtain?
  为什么没有人谈论幕后真正发生的事情？

[01:17] Because BYD didn't rise out of nowhere just like that.
  因为比亚迪并非凭空出现。

[01:18] There's a lot more to this story.
  这个故事还有很多内容。

[01:20] That's exactly why I created this channel, to talk about things people get wrong because they never set foot in Asia.
  这正是我创建这个频道的原因，谈论人们因为从未踏足亚洲而误解的事情。

[01:25] I've been running businesses here for 26 years.
  我在这里经营生意已经26年了。

[01:27] I see what's happening from the inside.
  我从内部了解正在发生的事情。

[01:29] So, if you want a real picture of what's going on, subscribe.
  所以，如果你想了解真实的情况，请订阅。

[01:33] You won't get this anywhere else.
  你不会在别处得到这些信息。

[01:36] The mistake most people make is to think this is a story about Chinese brands winning in China.
  大多数人犯的错误是认为这是一个关于中国品牌在中国获胜的故事。

[01:41] That would already be bad news for Mercedes and Volkswagen, but it would still leave them the home turf.
  这对梅赛德斯和大众来说已经是坏消息了，但他们仍然拥有主场优势。

[01:46] The reality is much worse.
  现实情况要糟糕得多。

[01:49] BYD and the other Chinese carmakers aren't just dominating Beijing and Shanghai.
  比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商不仅仅是在统治北京和上海。

[01:53] They're planting their flag on every continent at the same time, and nobody seems able to stop them.
  他们同时在每个大陆上插上旗帜，似乎没有人能够阻止他们。

[01:58] Start with Southeast Asia, where the shift has been the most
  从东南亚开始，那里的转变最为显著

[02:01] Brutal.
  残酷。

[02:04] In Thailand, BYD took 40% of the electric vehicle market in 18 months.
  在泰国，比亚迪在18个月内占据了电动汽车市场40%的份额。

[02:06] Mitsubishi shut down its local factory.
  三菱关闭了其当地工厂。

[02:08] Mazda cut production by 60%.
  马自达将产量削减了60%。

[02:10] A region that had been a Japanese stronghold for 40 years flipped in a few years.
  一个曾是日本大本营长达40年的地区，在短短几年内就发生了转变。

[02:14] In Singapore, one out of every five new cars sold last year is a BYD.
  在新加坡，去年售出的每五辆新车中就有一辆是比亚迪。

[02:19] In Malaysia, BYD became the best-selling electric brand in 2024.
  在马来西亚，比亚迪成为2024年销量最高的电动汽车品牌。

[02:24] Closer to home, the picture [clears throat] is just as ugly.
  离家近一点看，（清嗓子）情况同样糟糕。

[02:27] Look at Europe, the place where Western car makers thought they'd be safe.
  看看欧洲，西方汽车制造商曾以为那里是安全的。

[02:30] Chinese brand now account for more than 11% of European EV sales, and their share keeps growing every quarter.
  中国品牌现在占欧洲电动汽车销售额的11%以上，而且它们的份额每个季度都在增长。

[02:35] Renault just posted its first net loss in 5 years, and warned that margins will keep shrinking because of Chinese pressure.
  雷诺刚刚公布了五年来的首次净亏损，并警告称由于中国的压力，利润率将持续萎缩。

[02:43] Stellantis is bleeding in its core markets.
  Stellantis在其核心市场正在遭受损失。

[02:46] Even Audi, the untouchable brand of European luxury, is now losing customers in China and losing market share at home in Europe at the same time.
  就连欧洲豪华品牌的标杆奥迪，现在也在中国失去客户，同时在欧洲本土失去市场份额。

[02:53] Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, had to fly to Beijing with 30 CEOs behind him, not to sign contract, but to ask Xi Jinping to stop suffocating German industry.
  德国总理弗里德里希·默茨不得不带着30位首席执行官飞往北京，不是为了签署合同，而是请求习近平停止扼杀德国工业。

[03:00] 20 years
  20年

[03:02] ago, it would have been unthinkable.
  ago，这是不可想象的。

[03:04] And there's the place nobody expected, Brazil.
  而这里是没人想到的地方，巴西。

[03:06] BYD took 72% of the Brazilian electric vehicle market in a single year and opened a factory on the side of an old Ford plant the Americans had abandoned.
  比亚迪在一年内占据了巴西电动汽车市场72%的份额，并在美国人废弃的旧福特工厂旁边开设了一家工厂。

[03:17] They're doing the same thing in Mexico, in Israel, in Norway, one of the most demanding EV markets in the world, where the BYD Tang landed straight in the top five bestsellers on launch.
  他们在墨西哥、以色列、挪威也在做同样的事情，挪威是世界上要求最苛刻的电动汽车市场之一，比亚迪唐一经推出就直接跻身畅销榜前五名。

[03:29] The United States is the only major market where BYD is still blocked, officially for national security reasons.
  美国是比亚迪唯一仍被阻止进入的主要市场，官方理由是出于国家安全原因。

[03:33] And even there, the Americans know it's a holding pattern, not a victory, because in every other corner of the planet, the trend is the same.
  即使在那里，美国人也知道这只是一个观望期，而不是一场胜利，因为在地球的每一个角落，趋势都是一样的。

[03:40] Wherever BYD shows up, the competition starts falling apart, sometimes in months, sometimes in weeks.
  无论比亚迪出现在哪里，竞争对手都会开始瓦解，有时是几个月，有时是几周。

[03:46] So, the real question is, how?
  所以，真正的问题是，怎么做到的？

[03:49] How does a Chinese company most people couldn't name 5 years ago pull off something no Western car maker saw coming.
  一家大多数人在五年前都叫不出名字的中国公司，是如何做到西方汽车制造商都未曾预料到的事情的。

[03:53] Cheap labor doesn't explain it.
  廉价劳动力无法解释这一点。

[03:57] Plenty of other Chinese brands had the same advantage and went nowhere.
  许多其他中国品牌也拥有同样的优势，但却一事无成。

[04:01] What BYD actually built is the part Mercedes and Toyota
  比亚迪实际建造的是梅赛德斯和丰田

[04:03] should have been studying 10 years ago.
  十年前就应该开始学习了。

[04:05] And to understand what they built, you need to know who built it.
  要想了解他们建造了什么，你就必须知道是谁建造的。

[04:09] His name is Wang Chuanfu.
  他的名字叫王传福。

[04:11] In 1995, he was a 29-year-old engineer who borrowed $40,000 from his cousin and rented a small workshop in Shenzhen to start making rechargeable batteries.
  1995年，他是一位29岁的工程师，他从表哥那里借了4万美元，并在深圳租了一个小型工坊，开始制造充电电池。

[04:20] Within 7 years, he was supplying Motorola and Nokia.
  在7年之内，他为摩托罗拉和诺基亚供货。

[04:23] By 2003, BYD was the biggest battery maker in the world.
  到2003年，比亚迪已成为世界上最大的电池制造商。

[04:27] That same year, Wang did something nobody understood.
  同年，王做了一件没人理解的事情。

[04:29] He took the money and bought a bankrupt state-owned car factory in the middle of nowhere.
  他拿钱买下了一个位于荒郊野外的破产国有汽车厂。

[04:35] His own investors tried to stop him.
  他自己的投资者试图阻止他。

[04:37] BYD's stock dropped by 2.7 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2 days.
  比亚迪的股票在2天内下跌了27亿港元。

[04:42] The Chinese business press called it a joke, a battery guy walking into one of the most capital-intensive industries on the planet.
  中国商业媒体称这是一个笑话，一个做电池的人竟然涉足了地球上资本密集度最高的行业之一。

[04:48] Wang didn't even have a driving license.
  王甚至连驾照都没有。

[04:50] But his logic was simple.
  但他的逻辑很简单。

[04:52] The future of the car, he believed, wasn't the engine.
  他相信，汽车的未来不在于引擎。

[04:53] It was the battery.
  而在于电池。

[04:55] And nobody on Earth knew more about batteries than him.
  而地球上没有人比他更了解电池。

[04:57] Everyone else was trying to figure out how to electrify a car.
  其他人都在试图弄清楚如何使汽车电动化。

[05:01] Wang was trying to figure out how to build a car around
  王则在试图弄清楚如何围绕着

[05:04] something he already mastered.
  他已经掌握了某样东西。

[05:06] It would take him 15 years of humiliation before the rest of the world understood what he was actually doing.
  他将经历15年的屈辱，世界其他人才会明白他到底在做什么。

[05:12] And during those 15 years, while journalists laughed at his cars and Musk was mocking him on television, Wang made three decisions that would quietly change everything.
  在那15年里，记者们嘲笑他的汽车，马斯克在电视上嘲笑他，而王做出了三个将悄然改变一切的决定。

[05:20] The first was to refuse to depend on anyone.
  第一个决定是拒绝依赖任何人。

[05:22] Tesla buys its batteries from Panasonic.
  特斯拉从松下购买电池。

[05:24] Volkswagen relies on hundreds of outside suppliers for chips, motors, electronics, even the glass.
  大众汽车依赖数百家外部供应商提供芯片、电机、电子产品，甚至是玻璃。

[05:29] BYD decided to build everything in-house.
  比亚迪决定一切都自主生产。

[05:33] The batteries, obviously, but also the semiconductors, the motors, the power electronics, the windshields, the headlights, down to the software running inside the dashboard.
  显然是电池，还有半导体、电机、电力电子、挡风玻璃、前灯，甚至到仪表盘内部运行的软件。

[05:42] When the global chip shortage paralyzed the entire auto industry in 2021, BYD just turned up the dial on its own chip factories and kept delivering.
  当2021年全球芯片短缺使整个汽车行业瘫痪时，比亚迪只是加大了自家芯片工厂的产量，并继续交付。

[05:51] When lithium prices exploded, they were already digging their own in Tibet and South America.
  当锂价飙升时，他们已经在西藏和南美洲开采自己的锂矿。

[05:55] Every crisis that hurt their competitors made them stronger.
  每一次伤害竞争对手的危机都让他们变得更强大。

[06:00] The second decision was a bet on the boring option.
  第二个决定是押注于那些不起眼的选择。

[06:02] While Tesla and every Silicon Valley commentator was evangelizing pure
  当特斯拉和硅谷的每一位评论员都在宣扬纯粹的

[06:06] Electric vehicle, Wang quietly poured resources into plug-in hybrids, cars that run on electricity for daily commutes and switch to gasoline for longer trips.
  电动汽车，王悄悄地将资源投入到插电式混合动力汽车中，这种汽车在日常通勤时依靠电力运行，在长途旅行时切换到汽油。

[06:15] In California, it sounded like a compromise.
  在加州，这听起来像是一种妥协。

[06:17] In most of China, where charging stations were rare outside the big cities, it was the only thing that actually made sense for hundreds of millions of people.
  在中国大部分地区，充电站在大城市以外的地方很少见，这对于数亿人来说是唯一真正说得通的选择。

[06:25] By the time BYD was selling more PHEVs than Tesla was selling EVs in total, the Western press was still debating whether hybrids were even the real technology.
  到比亚迪销售的插电式混合动力汽车数量超过特斯拉总电动汽车销量时，西方媒体仍在辩论混合动力汽车是否是真正的技术。

[06:37] That compromise gave BYD access [music] to 500 million Chinese consumers Tesla could never touch.
  这种妥协使比亚迪能够接触到特斯拉永远无法触及的5亿中国消费者。

[06:42] And once that that volume, the economics of scale did the rest.
  一旦有了这个销量，规模经济就发挥了作用。

[06:47] The third decision was the one that [music] closed the trap.
  第三个决定是那个让陷阱关闭的决定。

[06:49] In 2020, BYD released the Blade Battery.
  2020年，比亚迪发布了刀片电池。

[06:52] A different chemistry, lithium iron phosphate, instead of the nickel and cobalt mix everyone else was using.
  一种不同的化学成分，磷酸铁锂，而不是每个人都在使用的镍钴混合物。

[06:58] It was cheaper to produce, it didn't catch fire when you drove a nail through it, and it lasted longer.
  它的生产成本更低，用钉子穿透时不会着火，而且寿命更长。

[07:05] That last part
  最后一部分

[07:07] matters more than it sounds.
  这比听起来更重要。

[07:08] It meant BYD could sell cars at a lower price than Tesla while claiming a genuine safety advantage.
  这意味着比亚迪可以以比特斯拉更低的价格出售汽车，同时声称具有真正的安全优势。

[07:14] Four years later, Tesla starting buying batteries from BYD for its own cars.
  四年后，特斯拉开始从比亚迪购买电池用于自己的汽车。

[07:16] Let that sink in.
  好好体会一下。

[07:19] The company Musk laughed at on television is now supplying the batteries inside Teslas.
  马斯克在电视上嘲笑的公司现在正为特斯拉提供电池。

[07:25] Spoiler alerts, they stopped quickly.
  剧透一下，他们很快就停止了。

[07:27] But you understand that BYD didn't just build better cars.
  但你明白比亚迪不仅仅是制造了更好的汽车。

[07:29] They built a system that competitors structurally can't copy.
  他们建立了一个竞争对手在结构上无法复制的系统。

[07:33] At least, that's the official story.
  至少，这是官方的说法。

[07:35] The one you read in every business magazine, every auto case study celebrating BYD as the next to Vertical integration, bold hybrid strategy, breakthrough batteries, amazing.
  你在每本商业杂志、每份汽车案例研究中读到的关于比亚迪在垂直整合、大胆的混合动力战略、突破性电池方面的故事，都很精彩。

[07:47] Except it's not the full story.
  除了它不是全部故事。

[07:47] Not even close.
  差得远了。

[07:49] If you're getting value from this, hit subscribe.
  如果你觉得有价值，请订阅。

[07:51] This is exactly the kind of story you won't find on CNBC because most people covering Asia have never actually worked here.
  这正是你在CNBC上找不到的那种故事，因为大多数报道亚洲的人实际上从未在这里工作过。

[07:58] I have, for 26 years.
  我在这里工作了26年。

[08:00] That's why I created this channel, to share what's really happening in Asia from the inside.
  这就是我创建这个频道的原因，从内部分享亚洲真正发生的事情。

[08:05] From day one, BYD has been playing a game
  从第一天起，比亚迪就一直在玩一场游戏

[08:07] Nobody else on the field was allowed to play.
  场上不允许其他人参加。

[08:13] Between 2015 and 2020 alone, BYD received roughly $4.3 billion in direct subsidies from the Chinese state.
  仅在2015年至2020年间，比亚迪就从中国政府获得了约43亿美元的直接补贴。

[08:17] In 2016, the year they poached their star designer from Audi, the subsidies they collected from Beijing were higher than the company's entire net profit.
  2016年，也就是他们从奥迪挖走明星设计师的那一年，他们从北京收到的补贴高于公司整个净利润。

[08:24] Listen to that sentence again.
  再听一遍这句话。

[08:27] Without the Chinese government writing checks, BYD wasn't making money that year.
  如果没有中国政府的拨款，比亚迪在那一年是无法盈利的。

[08:31] It was losing it.
  它是在亏损。

[08:33] And it wasn't the only year.
  而且不只是那一年。

[08:35] The help came in every form you can imagine.
  帮助以你能想象到的各种形式出现。

[08:37] Free land for factories, zero interest loans from state-owned banks, tax breaks on R&D, guaranteed public contracts for buses and taxis in hundreds of Chinese cities, subsidies handed directly to buyers so that every BYD sold in China came pre-discounted by the state.
  为工厂提供免费土地，国有银行提供零息贷款，研发税收减免，在中国数百个城市为公交车和出租车提供公共合同保障，直接补贴给买家，因此在中国销售的每一辆比亚迪都经过了国家预先折扣。

[08:53] At its peak, analysts estimate BYD was pocketing between 2,000 and 4,000 dollars of public money for every single vehicle rolling off the line.
  分析师估计，在其高峰期，比亚迪每生产一辆汽车就能从公共资金中获得2000至4000美元的收入。

[09:03] Now, stop for a second and think about what that means for a company like
  现在，停下来想一想这对像...这样的公司意味着什么。

[09:07] Volkswagen or Toyota.
  大众或丰田。

[09:09] When they decide to price a car, they're competing against a rival whose margin isn't calculated the same way theirs is.
  当他们决定汽车的定价时，他们是在与一个利润计算方式与他们不同的竞争对手竞争。

[09:16] BYD can sell below cost for years and still post a profit because the Chinese state is quietly topping up the difference.
  比亚迪可以亏本销售多年，但仍然能获得利润，因为中国政府一直在悄悄地弥补差额。

[09:23] That's not a fair market.
  这不是一个公平的市场。

[09:24] This is why Mercedes can't just build better cars.
  这就是为什么梅赛德斯不能仅仅制造更好的汽车。

[09:27] It's why Stellantis can't just cut costs harder.
  这就是为什么Stellantis不能仅仅更大幅度地削减成本。

[09:29] The problem isn't that BYD is smarter or faster or more innovative, although there are plenty of those things.
  问题不在于比亚迪更聪明、更快或更具创新性，尽管这些方面确实有很多。

[09:35] The problem is that BYD is part of a national industrial strategy, Made in China 2025.
  问题在于比亚迪是国家产业战略“中国制造2025”的一部分。

[09:40] The plan Xi Jinping laid out a decade ago openly named the automotive sector as one of the 10 industries China intended to dominate globally.
  十年前习近平提出的计划公开点名汽车行业是中国打算在全球占据主导地位的十大产业之一。

[09:49] BYD is the instrument, the country is the player.
  比亚迪是工具，国家是玩家。

[09:52] By the time Western governments finally woke up and starting talking about tariffs and investigations, Beijing had already starting winding down the most aggressive subsidies.
  当西方政府终于醒悟并开始讨论关税和调查时，北京已经开始逐步取消最激进的补贴。

[10:01] Not because anyone forced them to, because the job was done.
  不是因为有人强迫他们，而是因为任务已经完成。

[10:04] The machine was built, the global
  机器已经建成，全球

[10:08] The supply chain was locked in, and the competition was already on its knees.
  供应链被锁定，竞争对手已经奄奄一息。

[10:11] The subsidies served their purpose and then quietly disappeared, leaving Western politicians chasing a problem that had already moved on to its next chapter.
  补贴达到了目的，然后悄然消失，让西方政客们去解决一个已经进入下一章的问题。

[10:19] Sadly for BYD, the cracks are starting to show.
  对比亚迪来说不幸的是，裂痕开始显现。

[10:22] The first one opened up in early 2025 when a small independent research firm based in Hong Kong called GMT Research published a report that landed like a bomb in the financial press.
  第一个裂痕出现在2025年初，当时一家名为GMT Research的香港小型独立研究公司发布了一份在财经媒体引起轰动的报告。

[10:32] According to their analysis, BYD's real debt isn't the 42 billion yuan the company officially reports.
  根据他们的分析，比亚迪的实际债务不是公司官方报告的420亿元。

[10:39] It's closer to 323 billion, almost eight times higher.
  它接近3230亿元，几乎是官方数字的八倍。

[10:45] The missing pieces are hidden inside what accountants call supply chain financing, a polite way of saying that BYD pays its suppliers on average 275 days after delivery, nine months, in an industry where the norm is 50 to 60 days.
  缺失的部分隐藏在会计师所谓的供应链融资中，这是一种委婉的说法，意思是比亚迪在交货后平均275天，也就是九个月后才支付供应商货款，而在该行业，通常是50到60天。

[11:00] Technically, those unpaid invoices are debt, except they don't show up on the balance sheet.
  严格来说，那些未付的发票是债务，只是它们没有出现在资产负债表上。

[11:04] BYD is using its own suppliers as an unpaid bank, and the
  比亚迪正在利用其供应商作为一个无息银行，而

[11:09] scale of it now rivals what Evergrande was doing in real estate right before the world seen collapse.
  其规模现在可与恒大在世界目睹其崩溃之前在房地产领域所做的事情相媲美。

[11:16] There's another practice nobody in China talks about openly, but everyone in the industry knows exist.
  还有一种做法，中国没有人公开谈论，但业内每个人都知道它的存在。

[11:20] It's called zero-mile edge used cars.
  它被称为零里程的二手车。

[11:23] The mechanism is simple and ugly.
  其机制简单而丑陋。

[11:24] At the end of each month, when sales targets are due, BYD dealerships register thousands of brand new cars in the name of shell companies they control.
  在每个月的月底，当销售目标到期时，比亚迪经销商会以他们控制的空壳公司的名义注册数千辆新车。

[11:34] Then immediately resell them on the second hand market as used zero kilometers.
  然后立即将它们作为零公里的二手车在二手市场上转售。

[11:38] On paper, those car count as new car sales.
  账面上，这些汽车被计为新车销售。

[11:41] In reality, no real customer ever bought them.
  实际上，没有真正的客户购买过它们。

[11:44] They end up piling in general lots across China sometimes for months.
  它们最终堆积在中国各地的普通停车场，有时长达数月。

[11:48] Images from 2024 show rows of BYDs abandoned in fields slowly rusting.
  2024年的图像显示，比亚迪汽车成排地被遗弃在田野里，慢慢生锈。

[11:53] A salesman in Guangzhou admitting anonymously that at the end of every month he was told to register 200 or 300 cars under partner companies just to meet the numbers.
  广州的一名销售人员匿名承认，每个月底他都被告知要在合作公司名下注册200到300辆汽车，只是为了达到数字。

[12:03] Which raises an uncomfortable question.
  这引出了一个令人不安的问题。

[12:06] When BYD tells the world it sold 4.25 million vehicles
  当比亚迪告诉世界它售出了425万辆汽车时

[12:11] Last year, how many of those were actually sold to human beings?
  去年，有多少辆actually卖给了人类？

[12:15] The quality problems have been piling up in parallel.
  质量问题一直在并行堆积。

[12:17] In September 2024, BYD had to recall nearly 97,000 vehicles over a steering column defect that could cause short circuits and spontaneous fires.
  2024年9月，比亚迪因转向柱缺陷召回了近97,000辆汽车，该缺陷可能导致短路和自燃。

[12:28] The biggest recall in the company's history.
  公司历史上最大规模的召回。

[12:30] Well, the biggest recall until October 2025, when they had to recall another 115,000 vehicles for another problem.
  嗯，直到2025年10月，他们不得不因另一个问题召回另外115,000辆汽车，这是最大规模的召回。

[12:39] On Chinese social media, complaints about the Seal Lion SUV radio cutting out after 3 months, GPS showing roads that don't exist, wipers freezing in heavy rain, reaching only 5,000 official filings in a single week.
  在中国社交媒体上，关于Seal Lion SUV收音机在3个月后失灵、GPS显示不存在的道路、雨刮器在大雨中冻结的投诉，在一周内达到了5000份官方文件。

[12:52] In Brazil, BYD is being prosecuted by the labor ministry for conditions described in court documents as analogous to slavery at its reconstruction site in Bahia.
  在巴西，比亚迪因其在巴伊亚州重建工地的条件被劳工部起诉，这些条件在法庭文件中被描述为类似于奴隶制。

[13:01] 163 Chinese workers passports confiscated, 14-hour days, no rest days.
  163名中国工人的护照被没收，每天工作14小时，没有休息日。

[13:07] The case went all the way up to President Lula.
  此案一直上报到卢拉总统。

[13:09] And the financials are starting to wobble.
  而财务状况也开始动摇。

[13:11] Net profit for 2025
  2025年的净利润

[13:14] dropped by 19%.
  下降了19%。

[13:16] Global sales in the first month of 2026 fell 41% year-on-year.
  2026年1月全球销量同比下降41%。

[13:21] Geely, the rival Chinese giant, is starting to eat BYD's lunch at home.
  竞争对手中国巨头吉利正开始在家门口蚕食比亚迪的市场。

[13:26] The Chinese government itself issued a public warning late last year telling car makers that the price war they engage in isn't sustainable.
  中国政府本身在去年年底发出了公开警告，告诉汽车制造商他们参与的价格战是不可持续的。

[13:32] When Beijing tells its own champions to calm down, you know something is [music] off.
  当北京告诉自己的冠军们冷静下来时，你就知道有些事情不对劲了。

[13:36] None of this means BYD is about to collapse tomorrow.
  这一切并不意味着比亚迪明天就会崩溃。

[13:38] The company is still massive, still profitable on paper, still selling more electric cars than anyone on the planet, but the cracks are real and the people pointing at them aren't going away.
  这家公司仍然庞大，账面上仍然盈利，仍然比地球上任何一家公司销售更多的电动汽车，但裂痕是真实的，指出裂痕的人不会消失。

[13:50] Some of them are now openly using the word Evergrande.
  他们中的一些人现在公开使用恒大的词。

[13:52] Whether they're right or wrong, that word alone tells you how fragile that miracle might actually be.
  无论他们是对是错，仅仅这个词就告诉你那个奇迹可能有多么脆弱。

[13:58] Whatever you might think about all this, Beijing is already running the same playbook again in alpha dozen other industries.
  无论你对这一切怎么看，北京已经在另外十几个行业中再次运行相同的剧本。

[14:03] If you want to know which industries are next on the list, you don't even have to guess.
  如果你想知道下一个行业是什么，你甚至不必猜测。

[14:07] Beijing published it.
  北京已经公布了。

[14:08] It's called China's 15th 5-Year Plan and it names every sector the country intends to dominate
  它被称为中国的第15个五年计划，并列出了该国打算主导的每一个行业。

[14:14] Globally.
  在全球范围内。

[14:16] Read it once and you'll never look at the business headline the same way again.
  读一遍，你再看商业头条的眼光就会不同。

[14:20] The reason I'm telling you this isn't to scare you.
  我告诉你这些不是为了吓唬你。

[14:22] It's because if you're building a business in 2026, thinking the world still works the way it did in 2005, you're going to get blindsided by something you never saw coming.
  因为如果你在2026年创业，还以为世界像2005年那样运转，你就会被你从未预料到的事情击垮。

[14:31] The rules have changed.
  规则已经改变。

[14:33] The people playing the game best right now are not in Detroit, Stuttgart, or Tokyo.
  现在玩得最好的那些人不在底特律、斯图加特或东京。

[14:37] They're in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and a dozen other Chinese cities most Westerners couldn't find on a map.
  他们在深圳、杭州以及许多其他西方人地图上找不到的中国城市。

[14:43] Whether BYD collapses next year under its own hidden debts or becomes the Toyota of the 21st century almost doesn't matter.
  比亚迪明年是否会因自身隐藏债务而崩溃，或者成为21世纪的丰田，几乎无关紧要。

[14:49] The bigger story is the one playing out behind it.
  更大的故事是它背后正在发生的事情。

[14:50] And it's not going to stop with cars.
  而且这不会止于汽车。

[14:55] If you see this happening in your own industry, drop a comment below and tell me what you're watching.
  如果你在自己的行业看到这种情况发生，请在下方留言告诉我你在关注什么。

[14:58] I read them all.
  我都会读。

[15:00] And if this is the kind of story you want more of, subscribe.
  如果你想看更多这类故事，请订阅。

[15:04] That's why I created this channel, to show what's really going on in Asia from the inside, not from a desk in London or New York.
  这就是我创建这个频道的原因，从内部展示亚洲真正发生的事情，而不是从伦敦或纽约的办公室里。

[15:10] See you in the next video.
  下个视频见。