# Bitcoin Will Breakout By Summer If This Happens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pVlPkzQCoc

[00:00] the silver needs go up dramatically and if you do the numbers we just don't have enough supply.
[00:03] If silver breaks out, if gold breaks out, if Dogecoin breaks out, then Bitcoin will break out.
[00:07] They'll all go together and I expect that to happen before the end of the summertime.
[00:10] Hello everyone.
[00:12] Today we've got a great conversation with Jordi Visser.
[00:15] In this conversation, we specifically talk about the interest rate hikes that could be coming down and we talk about what the impact is to all of the various assets.
[00:21] What's going on with the AI trade, the rest of the stock market, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto, and much more.
[00:27] Jordy has very unique thoughts and he's actively changing his portfolio and his mind as we speak.
[00:33] So this conversation illuminates how he's thinking about this and why he is making certain changes.
[00:37] I hope you enjoy my latest conversation with Jordy Visser.
[00:39] All right, Jordy, a great place to start this is the odds of an interest rate hike have increased significantly over the last couple of weeks.
[00:48] I think a lot of people are trying to figure out why is this happening and what is the impact to their portfolio.
[00:52] Let's first start with what has changed.
[00:54] As an investor, you need to update your worldview when you get new information.
[00:57] And so can you walk us through why interest rate hikes are
[01:01] now much more of a situation for investors?
[01:05] Yeah, first of all, you know, so people understand I I really honestly don't remember a time where uh you went in this quickly from a period of expecting three rate cuts to one rate hike over the course of of the year.
[01:24] Um but that's where we are right now.
[01:26] So let's break it down this way.
[01:29] First of all, the economy uh has been strong, but I think this is more about the earnings being strong and the AI trade and kind of the uh the part of it that's there.
[01:41] That's probably 20% of it.
[01:44] The bulk of this is coming from inflation.
[01:46] So, you and I have talked a lot about inflation expectations and inflation going forward.
[01:50] Once uh the situation in Iran became what it is and the straight shut down, the market started building in the likelihood that inflation was not
[02:01] only going higher uh this year, but the longer this has gone on, the expectations are that it's going to stay up here for longer.
[02:13] So, as of now, the uh Cleveland Fed now casting uh inflation number for May is estimated to be again above 04, which would put the year-over-year for CPI at 4.2%.
[02:25] Um so, we're starting to continue moving higher.
[02:29] And if you go through the inflation expectations and you change those, that is pretty much the bulk of what has happened.
[02:33] So, I would put it there.
[02:35] But I also think that the capex trade in AI and this is something that people probably didn't anticipate.
[02:43] So when I say the earnings are 20%.
[02:46] You not only have the oil prices going higher, but the nominal GDP stuff has gone higher, prices paid has gone higher and the PMIs and a lot of this was happening before Iran.
[02:53] So at this point, the market is just building in that we're going to have rate hikes because of inflation and because of much stronger
[03:02] than expected nominal GDP.
[03:04] And if I give you guys one more, Warren Pies put out a uh a great post yesterday or the day before just highlighting that the forward sales growth for the S&P 500 is 18%.
[03:19] Now that's 2 years.
[03:21] So let's just take it as 9% a year type thing.
[03:25] That correlates to very very high nominal GDP.
[03:27] And I think that's where the issue is right now in the market is the AI trade, the AI impact means nominal GDP is going higher.
[03:37] And I think the inflation side connected to it from Iran right now is the major story.
[03:41] And the market has as of now been able to look through it.
[03:45] Now when we go and we see the interest rate hikes kind of on the horizon, one of the interesting parts is that Kevin Worsh is coming in and you know he explicitly wants interest rate cuts.
[03:53] He's been saying that during his confirmation hearings.
[03:57] Everyone believes that Trump is putting him there specifically to cut interest rates, but
[04:02] the economic data or the market is obviously saying something different.
[04:06] And so, is there a world where the market wins out or could we see Worsh and Trump and you know, kind of more the political regime actually went out and say even though the data says one thing, they just start cutting because that's what they want to do.
[04:20] I I don't think the administration is going to be uh talking about rate cuts at this point.
[04:24] Um, I think I think they're going to run with the hope that rates stay here and this is a transitory belief.
[04:33] The administration is uh, from what I can see, I mean, they're trying everything to get the straight reopen um, and not have to go do any more bombing campaigns because I think we're at a very very critical point with gas prices where they are.
[04:49] More importantly, and I'm sure we'll get into this, uh the dynamic in the oil market is is a much different stage.
[04:55] I mean, we're now uh this started in February at the end of February.
[05:00] So, we're now almost 3 months into this or two,
[05:04] know, a full 3 months getting there and inventories are being drawn down.
[05:10] So, I think where the Fed is on this is number one, they don't know when this is going to end.
[05:13] They don't know the disruption.
[05:15] And this is where the uncertainty kicks in, not only for the Fed, but my gut tells me that investors need to start paying attention because we're now focused more on trailing news, meaning the earnings that just happened more than what's likely to happen over the next 3 months.
[05:30] And the problem is the oil situation will not get better over the next 3 months.
[05:34] The straight might might reopen.
[05:36] The question is, will it fully reopen?
[05:37] But only over the next three months, we're really going to see the situation in terms of how much oil has been drawn down, how much the destruction has gone on for some of the production that'll be offline for a period of time.
[05:48] And any rise in oil price where we are right now, guys, as any day oil goes higher, you see bond long-term bond yields go higher.
[05:55] So, forget the Fed, which I think Worsh is going to try his best not to raise rates.
[06:00] Edard Denny did uh say he thought
[06:05] there'd be a rate hike possibly in July.
[06:07] Edard Denni is one of the most bullish strategists out there and believes we're in a you know a roaring 20 style situation which I happen to agree with with regards to AI but I think we're in a very uncertain period here for uh investors and the Fed over the course of the next 3 months.
[06:24] Now one aspect of this like inflationary pressure is obviously energy prices and there is a belief that if the war ends then all of a sudden there will be uh a return to more normalized energy prices and inflation expectations and inflation itself will come back down.
[06:39] I get the sense that that is not your belief.
[06:41] Can you talk a little bit as to uh a situation where the Iran war is wound down or there is a ceasefire or some sort of peace deal?
[06:49] What is your expectation for what happens with inflation specifically?
[06:54] I mean, we we've had a ceasefire now for a while.
[06:56] Um, so I, you know, I you got to extend this further.
[07:01] I we have to go back to all of the ships going back to
[07:06] Normal from where they were.
[07:09] So, you've got to know me.
[07:10] I mean, I do a video each week.
[07:13] It's all facts.
[07:16] The facts are when the straight was closed, ships are still not going through.
[07:19] So, uh, we can play would a, could a, should have, maybe, this, that.
[07:24] If they did reopen it and it lasted for a month.
[07:27] I I think when you get into these situations with the market, um, it's very clear to me that number one, the earnings uh, blew away expectations in a way that we've never seen before.
[07:38] So, it's justified for the market to go higher.
[07:40] The facts of the matter are that we have a problem where energy prices are significantly higher than they were.
[07:46] So, we don't know if a move back to, let's just say WTI, is right around 98 right now.
[07:51] We don't know if a move back to 88, where it stays at 88 over the next three months, honestly, is good or bad.
[07:58] Um, at this point, I would say the market expects it because the market is buying things on trailing earnings and believing that everything is going to be fine going
[08:06] forward.
[08:08] But there's another issue here that comes in, and this is the other fact-based thing that I'm starting to notice in the markets.
[08:13] correlations are breaking down with inside the markets.
[08:15] Um the S&P 500, yes, is right up near all-time highs as we start this.
[08:20] It's slightly below.
[08:23] There's a lot of markets around the world, particularly in Europe and Asia, that are down significantly over the course of the last 3 months.
[08:29] They have not participated in this rally with inside markets that have been very correlated to the US and I would say are very much part of the AIdriven trade, which would be mainly Japan and Korea.
[08:42] internally they're they've got things breaking down machinery and construction.
[08:45] The construction index for the NE or for the topics uh in Japan is about to break the 200 day moving average.
[08:51] So oil is having an impact on markets.
[08:55] It may not be having an impact on the US but I think there's two reasons for that.
[08:58] One is we are the world's largest energy producer.
[09:00] Uh and number two,
[09:05] I think uh people have uh probably
[09:08] become ultra fixated on the fact that our AI market, meaning these positions, whether it's the hyperscalers plus the semis, if you just use that, that is pretty much driving the S&P 500.
[09:21] You have a lot of stocks down in the S&P 500 as well.
[09:23] Uh mainly on the consumption side.
[09:25] So I think within the market, oil has had an impact.
[09:28] It just hasn't had an impact on the types of things driving the market here, but it is starting to break down around the globe.
[09:35] Now, if we have rate hikes, let's just go back to the last time that we did this in 22.
[09:40] We saw, I think it was November of 2021, the Fed started talking about potentially hiking rates.
[09:47] That was pretty much the top of the market.
[09:48] Then they hiked interest rates at the fastest pace in history and the market sold off across stocks, commodities, uh, crypto, etc. literally to the point where we had multiple banks that ended up going bankrupt because they didn't uh kind of manage their risk correctly.
[10:03] How fast and how aggressive do you think the rate hikes could be?
[10:09] And does that matter for how much of a sell-off there would be in asset prices?
[10:14] I don't think there's going to be rate hikes.
[10:16] So, let let me let me be clear on this.
[10:18] Let's we may have done this last week, but for people who maybe didn't hear it or they didn't pay attention, this is a very different situation to 2022.
[10:26] Let's let's put it back to 2021.
[10:29] 2021, the Fed continually said this was transitory.
[10:32] Okay, it ended up being transitory, but it ended up being transitory with rate hikes.
[10:38] But it took a while for the yoloing to get out of play.
[10:43] And the yoloing is the major difference right now.
[10:45] Back then we had two parts that were moving at the same pace that both contribute heavily to the inflation or the core inflation side.
[10:57] Number one is wages were going higher.
[10:59] Um wages were going higher at a pace we hadn't seen before.
[11:04] The labor market had complete control.
[11:07] Um capital was in trouble.
[11:08] They were trying to beg people to come back to the office and at least
[11:11] get them back to work and it was hard with all the yoloing going on.
[11:14] So the first thing is wages were going higher.
[11:16] The second thing was we still had people scrambling to get away from cities.
[11:20] Housing market was on fire.
[11:23] You had uh all kinds of situations that were spreading into appliances.
[11:28] And when you have a housing market that's booming, that has huge implications for a lot of consumer related goods and we still had bottlenecks.
[11:36] We don't have the bottlenecks.
[11:38] Ships are going around the globe right now.
[11:39] They're just not going through the straight of Hormuz.
[11:41] So this is legitimately a transitory thing.
[11:45] We just don't know how long transitory is again.
[11:46] But because it's commodity related to your point on the question, this is not structural.
[11:51] Um when oil prices come back down, which they eventually will, we just don't know if Iran has a goal in mind.
[11:58] Um this has been a stalemate.
[12:01] The US has been trying now to get the straight open and Iran doesn't seem to be budging.
[12:07] And the question is why?
[12:07] Uh all I can deal with are the facts at this point.
[12:13] facts are that we're not opening this quickly.
[12:15] So I don't expect any rate cuts to happen because the other issue that is here is back in 2022.
[12:22] the deficit was not a big situation as big a situation it is now.
[12:25] The debt has obviously gone higher but right now we have interest expense which annualized for this year is probably going to be about $1.4 trillion.
[12:37] Back then it was about 600 billion.
[12:40] So we're talking about a huge interest expense.
[12:42] If they raise rates, unfortunately, they lose control over this.
[12:47] So we've talked a lot about the deficit.
[12:48] We've talked a lot about the ability of them to do this.
[12:50] This is a very, very difficult situation.
[12:51] And this is why when people sit here and look at the stock market and like, well, this is all great.
[12:57] I've said many times that the Fed's not in a position to hurt the stock market.
[13:01] The government can try to do things.
[13:03] They tried to balance the budget uh at the beginning of last year.
[13:06] Gave up on that real quickly.
[13:09] I think at this point people have to deal with the fact that inflation is trending higher.
[13:14] The situation Iran is not there.
[13:16] And if you ask me what's a higher likelihood by the end of this year, 10% inflation year-over-year or two, I'll take 10.
[13:24] We're currently at 3.8.
[13:27] That's the issue right now is when you get into those situations where if Iran if we don't fix the oil problem and they want to hold this out for a long time, oil prices eventually will start to shoot higher.
[13:39] Because unlike when we went through this situation in 2022 with Russia and Ukraine, we had a problem coming out of COVID where we had an issue with oil inventories because we had shut so many things down.
[13:51] We had a surplus.
[13:54] We're burning through the surplus and now everyone is starting to talk about the draws globally, but especially in the US and how much we've released from the SPR.
[14:03] So at this point, we've kind of run through that 2 to 3 month window that all the oil doomers talked about that this would get really bad.
[14:09] This needs to turn now where oil is going to start to move much higher much faster.
[14:13] And if it does move much higher much faster, at
[14:15] that point you're going to have a problem for the Fed.
[14:16] And I I still don't think they're going to be in a position to raise rates.
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[15:39] Okay, so let's say that um they don't raise rates, but they don't cut rates.
[15:42] U maybe let's go kind of through asset prices.
[15:45] is what is the impact on the AI related stocks versus the rest of software?
[15:50] Have you changed your mind about anything?
[15:52] You you've been very bullish on the AI uh side and not so bullish on software.
[15:55] Is that still the same?
[15:59] So, this week has been um I mentioned the the breakdown in correlations.
[16:01] We've also had uh a a pretty dramatic shift earlier in the week.
[16:03] So, between Friday of last week, you know, we we did our our normally do our stuff on on Fridays.
[16:11] By the close of Friday, momentum had
[16:17] been hit hard and that's because software had outperformed semis.
[16:21] That's kind of the, you know, people being short, software being long semis.
[16:25] We saw that unwind that continued into Monday and into Tuesday morning over the course of two days and a morning open.
[16:33] It was a dramatic movement in momentum.
[16:36] Now, momentum as a factor for the market just means the winners went down, the losers went up over the course, you know, what had worked and what hadn't worked.
[16:45] I I I've mentioned that I've gotten out of Micron.
[16:47] Um I have no intention of getting back in uh at any price uh unless it was a significant fall and I don't expect a significant fall in the AI trade.
[16:56] But the reason I got rid of Micron is because I think we're entering a new regime and sometimes it takes a little time for the market to deal with that.
[17:05] If I'm right, a lot of the things we've already talked about, rising oil prices, rising uh risk of a Fed rate hike would lead to an unwinding positions that people are in.
[17:16] You've mentioned the success of the Roundtill
[17:19] DM memory ETF.
[17:22] I'm highlighting this weekend that I wrote a paper on inference a year ago to this week.
[17:25] That was when Google IO had their event last year and they showed that tokens had gone up significantly.
[17:30] And I highlighted a bunch of names.
[17:33] Now, most of those names are in the DRAM ETF.
[17:35] The reason I bring it up is we're a year into that trade.
[17:38] Most of those names are up four to eight eight times.
[17:43] Um, and it's not just Micron, SKHEX, it's things like Seagate, Western Digital.
[17:48] So, we're long in the tooth in something that has worked.
[17:51] And for me, going forward, the risk reward has changed.
[17:52] I don't see as much upside as I did a year ago.
[17:56] And normally, that means there's a rotation that should go on.
[17:59] For me, I've rotated, as I've said, into crypto and silver.
[18:02] I've kept some of the semiconductors on which are still more related to the optical side.
[18:07] Marll, I actually bought a little bit of Intel in the weakness this week when it got under 110 and I'll continue to look down there.
[18:14] So, I think there's very likely going to be um a a scenario that best case scenario over
[18:21] the next 3 months.
[18:24] I think the AI trade will be unchanged type thing.
[18:27] Um worst case scenario is we start to see a correction where we probably need to take some air out of the bubble.
[18:33] You mentioned Marll and Corning was another one that you had talked about for a few weeks there.
[18:37] What what are your thoughts on those two?
[18:40] Yeah, I so I I think if you go through the the cycle of where AI has been, um memory was the first thing that became obvious and that was you know like I said when inference became a higher demand I wrote this paper about the amount of memory that's needed relative to GPUs.
[18:55] So again, when I can write a paper, I'm not a semis specialist and I wrote this paper a year ago to this week.
[19:02] I think that means that a lot of the good news, the acceleration is over and I think the second derivative of price is going to start to uh move down.
[19:14] Marll only broke out about two months ago.
[19:18] Um, so it's not as long in the tooth.
[19:20] And I actually happen to believe
[19:21] Marll has a chance to be like a Micron type name over the course of the next two years.
[19:29] That's how important the optical side is in my opinion.
[19:31] Corning has a massive order.
[19:33] Their earnings are still going to be there.
[19:35] The question is, are they going to get an acceleration in any other part of their business?
[19:39] I still think that they're going to be going higher over the course of the next two years in a very meaningful way, but I also think the the memory names will too.
[19:47] I just think the memory names probably need more of a pause and they actually have more risk because it's easier for competitors theoretically to catch up in memory just because efficiency can do that.
[19:59] But also on the other side, I think uh China has already started to build out their own side.
[20:03] So I'm not saying that's going to happen.
[20:04] I still believe in all of these names over the course of the next 5 years.
[20:09] But I just think you got to be um wary of things that have had a big run.
[20:12] And that ETF you talked about the record volume.
[20:16] I think it had 6 billion in in flows um in a very short amount of time.
[20:19] Like one of the most successful ETFs in history.
[20:19] The SMH, which has been
[20:22] around a long time, I think it has about
[20:24] 60 billion in AUM. So the memory names,
[20:28] which there's not that many of them,
[20:30] that means there's a lot of retail
[20:31] involvement in there. And I think that's
[20:32] where you'd probably see a correction.
[20:35] The uh DRAM uh ETF has just over 10
[20:39] billion in assets now and I think they
[20:41] launched maybe a month, you know, five
[20:42] weeks ago, something like that. So, it's
[20:44] been pretty uh uh pretty impressive. Um
[20:46] le let's talk about uh what's going on
[20:48] in commodities. Obviously, there's been
[20:50] this commodity bull market. There are
[20:52] these huge shortages. Um you have been
[20:54] all over calling out a number of these.
[20:56] I think other folks like you know the
[20:58] Tom Lees or the Dan Ies, I think they
[21:00] also uh intimately understand some of
[21:02] this. What is your view there in
[21:04] relationship more to the macro
[21:06] environment? Is is it insulated and so
[21:08] you don't really have to pay attention
[21:09] to interest rates, inflation, etc. Uh
[21:12] because this is more of a driver than a
[21:13] reactor or how do you look at it? So the
[21:17] commodity names to me the only
[21:19] difference between them and the stocks
[21:20] is uh until they have momentum going
[21:24] again people don't have any interest
[21:26] because the narrative on silver is well
[21:29] how do I just buy silver pe the
[21:31] questions I get for silver very
[21:33] different than than micron commodities
[21:35] trade a lot more and the thought process
[21:37] is a lot more like bitcoin um where you
[21:40] have to create a narrative around it so
[21:42] think about gold last year I mean every
[21:44] day we talked about gold going higher
[21:46] Well, now Bitcoin is with gold and with
[21:49] silver. They're in this consolidation
[21:50] pattern. The regime shift that I see
[21:54] happening and like I said, historically
[21:57] when you're above 4% in CPI,
[22:01] it is not good for stocks. So the S&P
[22:04] 500 when the CPI is above 4% over the
[22:06] last I think I did this back to 1928. So
[22:09] figure approximately 100 year, it has a
[22:12] negative return when the CPI is above
[22:14] 4%. When it's below 4%, it has a return
[22:18] of about 12%. So negative verse 12.
[22:21] Well, we're just about to cross above
[22:23] 4%. And at the same time, we have
[22:25] three-month bills at 370 right now. So
[22:28] CPI is going to be 50 basis points above
[22:31] 3mon bills unless the Fed raises rates.
[22:33] And even if they do raise rates, the
[22:34] question is how much would they raise? I
[22:38] I I think we're in a negative uh yield
[22:41] regime, but with growth. So the
[22:43] difference is if the Fed's not going to
[22:45] raise rates like it did when inflation
[22:47] was high, but at the same point you have
[22:50] CPI that's higher. I think the real
[22:52] risk, and I wrote a paper about this
[22:53] this week, the AI trade is moving so
[22:57] fast and the hoarding that's going on is
[23:00] so big that the issue that comes in is
[23:03] if we have bottlenecks, you're going to
[23:05] see some of these companies not meet
[23:06] their numbers going forward, especially
[23:08] if the input costs are going higher.
[23:10] you'll see margins get compressed and
[23:13] that's where I think the risk is in
[23:14] stocks. I don't see the same risk in
[23:16] commodities. I think commodities there's
[23:18] an underlying bid by geopolitical uh
[23:20] needs on copper on silver and I think
[23:23] gold is still fitting in there. And I'll
[23:25] just add one thing since I've talked
[23:26] about silver in this group. Um silver is
[23:30] a major part of solar. It's needed in
[23:33] every single part of the AI trade but
[23:35] there's also a growing trade going. Um
[23:39] March was the largest uh import month
[23:41] for China in history on silver
[23:45] solid state batteries which I've said
[23:47] repeatedly to people on the
[23:49] institutional side that if there's one
[23:51] place that you should be spending a lot
[23:52] of time outside of chemicals to make
[23:54] sure you're up to speed, it is
[23:55] batteries. And the reason is if we want
[23:58] to solve our energy and power problem in
[23:59] the US, the easiest way to do it is to
[24:01] have massive batteries uh connected to
[24:03] every part of the grid. Because if we
[24:05] can store the energy then we can use up
[24:08] more of the excess capacity we have
[24:10] because we do have a lot of capacity on
[24:11] days where we don't need it. It's only
[24:13] on those days where we have to keep the
[24:15] excess in there. So batteries are really
[24:17] important and China in particular has
[24:20] made huge advances in solid state
[24:22] batteries. Uh this is critical but the
[24:25] difference is it uses a tremendous
[24:27] amount of silver relative to lithium
[24:29] batteries. And so if solid state
[24:31] replaces lithium over the course of the
[24:34] next five years, the silver needs go up
[24:36] dramatically. And if you do the numbers,
[24:38] we just don't have enough supply. So
[24:40] silver is the one that when it breaks
[24:42] out, uh, and I'll say the same thing I
[24:44] said last week, if silver breaks out, if
[24:46] gold breaks out, if Dogecoin breaks out,
[24:48] then Bitcoin will break out, they'll all
[24:49] go together. And I expect that to happen
[24:51] before the end of the summertime.
[24:53] >> So explain a little bit more as to why
[24:55] before the end of the summertime. Why
[24:57] why that timeline that you're looking at
[24:59] for crypto?
[25:01] >> So in all my experience of trading
[25:04] markets um when I say a regime shift
[25:06] there's there's two types of regime
[25:08] shifts. Uh one is let's say one that
[25:11] lasts for a long period of time and that
[25:13] would be something like coming out of co
[25:16] uh where you go into it it's a
[25:18] deflationary situation and then you
[25:20] print money and it takes a while for
[25:21] people to grasp the inflationary
[25:23] situation. I started talking about
[25:25] inflation postco in May of 2020 and that
[25:28] was because of the enormous amount of
[25:30] money printing. In this case, I think
[25:33] we're in a co type situation from one
[25:35] level that equates this to a regime
[25:37] shift.
[25:39] If you listen to anyone on the oil
[25:42] markets, and I don't know if you've had
[25:44] people on that have traded oil markets
[25:46] for a long time, the one thing they all
[25:49] say as a group is they had all modeled
[25:51] the straight of Hormuz. Straight of
[25:52] Hormuz is really important to the global
[25:54] economy. It's kind of like its own
[25:56] central bank. Um, oil matters to the
[25:59] whole world. There's no way to get off
[26:01] of this. Diesel drives the economy. If
[26:03] all of a sudden we see a downshift in
[26:07] the global economy which I said is
[26:09] showing up in Japan with inside the
[26:11] construction market showing up with
[26:13] inside uh the machinery markets both in
[26:16] Japan and in Korea. This is happening in
[26:18] both countries while the DRM stuff is
[26:20] still going up. You've got long-term
[26:22] rates which are going higher and in
[26:24] particular in the UK and Japan. I mean,
[26:27] we're talking about 25, 30-year highs
[26:30] that we're making in long-term yields in
[26:32] countries that have a ton of debt. These
[26:34] have all been fears at some point. So, I
[26:36] think the regime shift is once the
[26:38] technical market starts to break down,
[26:41] whenever that happens, and it can take
[26:43] weeks. That's why I said by the end of
[26:44] the summertime, I think there's a
[26:47] two-sided thing here. One is I think
[26:49] markets have to have a correction. I
[26:51] don't know to the extent because I don't
[26:53] know what's going to happen to the oil
[26:54] price. If oil, if you tell me oil's 200,
[26:56] I'm telling you at this point, the stock
[26:58] market can't deal with it anymore
[26:59] because we'd be up at that point, which
[27:01] would also mean slowing growth because
[27:02] we've been using excess inventories. The
[27:05] second part of the trade though is if
[27:07] the Fed doesn't move and all of a sudden
[27:10] there is a stimulus thing, meaning okay,
[27:13] the government we the straight starts to
[27:15] open up and oil prices come down not
[27:17] from 100, but they come down from 150 or
[27:20] 200. I think that's going to be
[27:22] extremely positive for commodities and
[27:24] extremely positive for Bitcoin, but I
[27:26] don't think you're going to see the
[27:27] stock market immediately go higher
[27:29] because we'll be significantly higher,
[27:30] but in the commodity markets, we will.
[27:32] One other aspect of the stock market
[27:34] that um I think people are starting to
[27:36] to wrap their head around is there's
[27:37] quite a bit of supply that is coming. Uh
[27:40] obviously the SpaceX IPO, there's
[27:42] Anthropic, potentially uh Open AI, and
[27:45] SpaceX is, you know, probably the
[27:47] largest and the one that is uh most
[27:49] tangible because we we've got the S1
[27:51] now. We we kind of know, you know, when
[27:53] uh when they're going to do this
[27:54] compared to maybe some of the larger
[27:56] private uh businesses, but if there's
[27:59] tons of supply coming and you've got,
[28:01] you know, kind of the macro environment,
[28:03] um there's many people who are quite
[28:05] bullish that are saying, look, for the
[28:07] next couple of months, there could be
[28:08] some headwinds here. Do you agree that
[28:09] that supply could become an issue?
[28:13] >> Supply of this side has to be an issue
[28:15] at least initially. Um, you know, I
[28:17] think if these names weren't going to be
[28:20] allowed to go in the ETFs, the passive
[28:22] markets as quickly as they are, it seems
[28:24] like all the rules are being changed to
[28:25] allow them to go in, it probably has a
[28:28] little bit less of an effect um, in
[28:31] general for what we'd be talking about.
[28:32] Meaning if people have to get out of
[28:35] let's just say the S&P 500 because they
[28:37] have to raise cash to go buy these
[28:39] issuances then it would be negative for
[28:42] the indexes and these stocks would go
[28:43] on. That's what normally has happened in
[28:45] the past. So the size of the numbers is
[28:48] huge. Um I do believe that anytime you
[28:51] have supply of this magnitude it just
[28:53] adds to the question that's in the
[28:55] marketplace. But it's also going to it
[28:57] seems like it's being frontloaded.
[28:59] They're almost in a race to get this
[29:00] out. And I think there's issues with
[29:03] that as well. The question is why are
[29:05] they trying to get it out? If you come
[29:06] to the market with too much issuance, I
[29:09] think it definitely gets people to be a
[29:10] little bit more I can wait a little
[29:12] while before I buy things. So I think
[29:14] the timing of everything for the next 3
[29:16] months just leads to an issue. We we've
[29:18] got expectations very high. We've taken
[29:20] the sentiment back up depending on which
[29:22] risk, you know, which indicator you look
[29:24] at um back up towards the highs where we
[29:27] started the year. The ones that I use
[29:29] were back up there. So, I just think
[29:30] it's a bad setup for the next three
[29:32] months. And like I said, it may resolve
[29:34] itself by just consolidating. But I
[29:36] think the oil part is the bigger risk is
[29:38] that we can ignore oil for a period of
[29:41] time. Inflation's already gone higher.
[29:42] So, we're ignoring inflation. We're
[29:44] ignoring oil. We're ignoring rate hikes
[29:47] and we're ignoring rates in the backend
[29:49] going higher. And the only reason is
[29:51] because we've seen this move in the AI
[29:54] trade. And like I said with inside the
[29:55] AI trade, we're seeing stuff that has
[29:58] been correlated start to break down. And
[30:00] for people who are really want to get
[30:01] into the weeds of this, and I'll go
[30:02] through this over the weekend, there are
[30:05] two sectors that are the bulk of the AI
[30:08] trade. And most people think of it as
[30:10] tech. I I the the AI trade to me from
[30:13] the receivers, the capex trade, it's a
[30:16] combination of semiconductor names and
[30:20] then the industrials. So as much as
[30:23] power is necessary, this is not an
[30:25] energy type thing. This is really
[30:28] transformers, gas turbines, it's all the
[30:31] industrial. So when I talk about the
[30:32] fact that construction names and
[30:34] machinery names are going down in Japan
[30:37] and in Korea, that means part of the AI
[30:40] trade is already starting to break down.
[30:41] And that's what I'm saying. When you
[30:42] start seeing correlation breaks, it's
[30:44] kind of like my turbulence model. It's a
[30:46] warning sign to at least have one eye
[30:48] open, as I like to say, and just be wary
[30:50] that if things start to turn the other
[30:52] direction, you could see a correction
[30:54] that goes pretty far pretty fast. And I
[30:56] don't think people want to be holding
[30:57] stocks during that period. Got it. What
[31:00] are you uh maybe looking for where you
[31:02] would start to change your mind on some
[31:04] of this, right? Like it it seems like
[31:05] you've got a very well-formed view. Is
[31:07] there anything that you're looking at
[31:08] and saying, "Hey, if this changes, you
[31:09] know, I I will uh uh adapt."
[31:13] So I I I'm probably less of a well no
[31:16] not probably I'm less of a trader than
[31:18] probably you know the people that are
[31:21] sitting at home and on the retail
[31:23] trading side. I'm not as slow as an
[31:25] institution and more importantly I can
[31:27] sit in things. Um I started buying
[31:29] Micron last year at 105. It traded down
[31:33] I think to 60 in the first quarter of
[31:35] last year and I bought more on the way
[31:37] down and then I bought more on the
[31:39] breakout. Uh I have a higher tolerance
[31:42] for things that I think are going to
[31:44] play out over the course of the next
[31:45] year. The way that I'm viewing my
[31:47] portfolio.
[31:49] I just had a home run with most, you
[31:51] know, especially with Micron, but with a
[31:53] lot of the semiconductor names. I also
[31:55] lost money last year in the crypto
[31:57] portion of my portfolio. Um, I have
[32:00] upped my crypto portion because I think
[32:02] a year from now when we get to May of
[32:04] next year, instead of us talking about
[32:06] the parabolic needs of memory, I think
[32:08] we're going to be talking about the
[32:09] buildout of the financial
[32:10] infrastructure. I did a um a webinar
[32:13] this week with a group uh from Kraken.
[32:16] And I I I spent a lot of time on my
[32:20] portion about hey, we're building out
[32:22] the AI infrastructure. Only at the
[32:24] beginning of this year did the agentic
[32:26] world start to happen. That's where the
[32:28] inference side kicked in. The other
[32:30] thing that's critical for inference is
[32:32] Ethereum.
[32:34] It's circle. It's go through the list of
[32:38] the financial guardrails that you want.
[32:40] This is a critical component is
[32:42] connecting the agentic world to the
[32:43] crypto side. And so when you look at the
[32:46] charts that Coinbase had in their um
[32:48] earnings release and you see them, they
[32:50] look a lot like the charts that Sundar
[32:54] Pai showed in token usage. So I think
[32:58] when we get here a year from now, and it
[33:00] might take 3 months, it might take 6
[33:01] months, but that's not what I'm looking
[33:03] for. I don't think silver can go down
[33:05] very much, and I think it will double
[33:07] over the next year. I don't think
[33:08] Bitcoin can go down very much from here.
[33:10] And if it acts like Micron did last year
[33:13] and I have to buy more at 50,000 and
[33:15] 40,000, I will because I believe a year
[33:17] from now, we'll be talking still about
[33:19] the AI trade being happening. There
[33:21] might be delays and bottlenecks. I think
[33:24] the inflation side will still be on the
[33:26] higher side and we'll still have rates
[33:28] at the lower end. The disruption will be
[33:30] happening to politics. The disruption
[33:32] will be happening to voters. People are
[33:34] going to be angry. And I think that
[33:36] Bitcoin and the crypto world will have a
[33:37] two-prong situation of negative real
[33:40] yields around the globe. The financial
[33:41] guard rails drawing in investors,
[33:43] especially the growth side, and we'll
[33:45] start to get an upward movement in a
[33:47] year from now. We'll be talking about
[33:48] doubles in crypto as opposed to doubles
[33:50] in memory.
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[35:59] check them out today. Now, I'm sitting
[36:01] here looking at a bunch of uh uh public
[36:04] equities, commodities, and uh some of
[36:06] the inflation data. And it looks like uh
[36:09] the economic data can be twisted to tell
[36:12] very different stories. And one of the
[36:14] things that I find uh maybe most
[36:16] fascinating in financial markets right
[36:18] now is the economic data if you want to
[36:21] tell a positive story can be
[36:22] overwhelming. But maybe the most
[36:24] important thing to tell a negative story
[36:26] is you go and you look at some of these
[36:28] polls. So CBS just came out with a brand
[36:29] new poll and asked people, you know, how
[36:31] do you feel about your personal
[36:32] finances? Over 70% of people said
[36:34] they're concerned or they're worried,
[36:36] right? If you go and you look at uh
[36:38] people saying, hey, is your wages or
[36:41] your income keeping up with inflation?
[36:43] something like 75 80% of people saying
[36:45] no. And so there's this idea of like
[36:47] almost regardless of what the economic
[36:49] data is, the perception, the feeling
[36:52] that people have is very negative. And
[36:54] you see this in some of the u approval
[36:57] numbers for Trump or the economy etc.
[37:01] And so are we now in a world where the
[37:03] economic data is important to be
[37:04] informed by but actually that sentiment
[37:06] that those kind of survey type results
[37:09] have more and more weight because you're
[37:10] getting this you know kind of split or
[37:12] or this uh kind of paradox in the market
[37:14] where wealthy asset owners are actually
[37:16] making money and the rest of the country
[37:18] feels like they're being left behind.
[37:22] >> I mean Donald Trump was elected on the
[37:24] distribution of wealth problem in the
[37:26] country. Um, there's no doubt that it's
[37:28] a K-shaped economy. So, everyone can sit
[37:32] there and try to pretend they can pick
[37:33] whatever side they want. I I listened to
[37:35] someone this morning that I shut off
[37:37] after 5 minutes. Because if you start
[37:40] with highlighting the delinquencies
[37:42] happening on credit cards, the
[37:43] delinquencies, and say something like
[37:45] the consumer is feeling it worse
[37:49] than any time since the great financial
[37:50] crisis. There is truth in that statement
[37:53] because we do have credit card
[37:54] delinquencies, auto delinquencies,
[37:57] mortgage payment delinquencies
[37:59] at those levels. There's no doubt about
[38:01] it. The problem is they're
[38:04] inconsequential to GDP
[38:07] because you're dealing with small parts
[38:09] of the economy. On the higher end, the
[38:12] wealth side is just insanely getting
[38:15] created by the day the more that the
[38:17] stock market goes higher. If you have I
[38:19] mean I think as we get on here we're up
[38:22] about 9% in total return for the S&P
[38:24] this year. I mean I hate to tell people
[38:26] but whatever you want to think about the
[38:29] global economy it's the US stock market
[38:32] is so big. I've talked about it. We're
[38:34] now above 225% of GDP. So, if you have a
[38:38] 10% rise in the stock market, you guys
[38:42] have to go through the math and just
[38:43] realize that is literally you're talking
[38:46] about, I don't know, $7 trillion,
[38:49] which is equivalent to about 25% of GDP.
[38:54] So, when you have an upward movement, it
[38:56] creates a lot of wealth for people that
[38:58] are already wealthy. For people that are
[39:00] not, we have transfer payments. And this
[39:01] is the K-shaped economy. And this is why
[39:03] voters are not happy. I absolutely know
[39:06] from having, you know, four kids what
[39:10] the truth is because for me to subsidize
[39:14] my kids in some way and help them be
[39:16] able to get started on their life in
[39:17] cities, you know, if there's an
[39:19] emergency at the house and they have a
[39:22] flood and the insurance doesn't cover
[39:24] it, they don't have the extra money in
[39:26] the bank account without dipping too far
[39:28] in and so I end up helping them out. So
[39:31] parents know that people are living
[39:32] paycheck to paycheck across the country.
[39:34] And I think that's the reality. And I
[39:36] don't see a situation because of AI that
[39:38] that's going to change anytime soon. You
[39:40] don't just accumulate assets and have
[39:42] them go higher. Now for people that are
[39:44] trading, as we talked about last week, I
[39:46] do think traders have an advantage over
[39:48] wealthy people in the fact that what I
[39:50] described, they can get long these
[39:52] things and ride them up. Most
[39:53] institutions can't put a big position on
[39:56] in the DRAM names. Um, and that's one of
[39:58] the reasons why retail's been having
[40:00] such a fun time. Institutions aren't
[40:02] overly long them. So, if this falls,
[40:04] it's going to be a margin fall, meaning
[40:06] it's going to be because retail gets
[40:08] stopped out of these trades and then
[40:10] they'll move on to something else. Just
[40:11] like last year, they were involved in
[40:12] Palunteer, gold, and silver, and they're
[40:14] not involved in Palunteer, gold, and
[40:15] silver anymore. Retail's good. They'll
[40:17] go find the next trade, and the next
[40:19] trade to me will be in different areas.
[40:21] Now, one other aspect of the stock
[40:22] market that I find very fascinating is
[40:24] uh there's this chart that shows the S&P
[40:26] 500's net profit margin has risen to
[40:29] almost 15% in the first quarter. And so
[40:32] there's this idea that the underlying
[40:34] fundamentals of many of these businesses
[40:36] are improving in some cases the you know
[40:38] pees etc actually getting cheaper. And
[40:40] so how do you look at this you know
[40:43] bubble talk and and all the excitement
[40:45] but um also at the same time the
[40:47] underlying businesses themselves seem to
[40:49] be improving and actually driving you
[40:50] know real financial performance.
[40:53] So the problem and and again this fits
[40:56] into the distribution of wealth problem.
[40:58] Um
[41:00] the profit margins at the aggregate S&P
[41:03] level are up at 15%. But most of this is
[41:05] being driven by,
[41:08] you know, seven to 10 names in the S&P
[41:10] 500. Um, Micron's margins are exploding.
[41:14] Nvidia's margins are up at 70%. The
[41:17] hyperscalers. So, it's it's a it's a
[41:20] world of halves and halves, not have
[41:22] nots. And the reality is the S&P 500 is
[41:25] the S&P 500. It there's no way to go
[41:27] through it. If those names are, you
[41:29] know, the highest ones, that's great.
[41:31] The issue is right now and where I see
[41:34] the issue popping up
[41:36] if margins were to start heading down
[41:39] because this is an inflated number
[41:40] driven by seven companies and all of a
[41:42] sudden their margins start to drop off
[41:44] for some reason it's going to look like
[41:47] the S&P margins are dropping off and
[41:49] that will scare people and that's what I
[41:51] think is going to happen and even if it
[41:52] doesn't scare people the one thing I
[41:54] will tell you if you want a signal in
[41:56] the marketplace if profit margins start
[41:58] dropping it's not really good and if
[42:00] you're a quant
[42:02] meaning a computer and you're trading
[42:04] off signals and you get a signal that
[42:06] says profit margins are declining or
[42:08] they've peaked you start extrapolating
[42:10] that out and even if it doesn't continue
[42:12] for the time being it's kind of a risk
[42:14] signal to reduce risk that's the problem
[42:16] I see is these charts look so good and
[42:18] so explosive and one of the things I'm
[42:20] highlighting um this week the capex
[42:24] trade so remember you and I last year
[42:27] spent the time defending the AI bubble
[42:30] meaning going against people saying it
[42:32] was an AI bubble. When we look at these
[42:34] capex numbers, you've seen the numbers
[42:36] for this year. We're now expecting about
[42:38] 800 billion for this year. Last year was
[42:40] I think about 400 billion. The year
[42:42] before was say 200 and change. At the
[42:45] same time, so we've got combined now for
[42:48] the last two years plus the first
[42:49] quarter of this year. Let's assume it's
[42:51] a trillion dollar so far. Well, that's a
[42:54] trillion out of what's now expected to
[42:55] be an $8 trillion
[42:58] capex build. We're basically about 12%
[43:02] through the build
[43:04] and we have an enormous amount of
[43:07] shortages already now. So the one thing
[43:09] I will tell people about the buildout, I
[43:12] think for the next year because of how
[43:14] quickly the shortages and the buildout
[43:15] have shown up, people are
[43:16] underestimating that the capbacks may
[43:19] run into issues not on the ability to
[43:23] spend more money on it, but the ability
[43:25] of actually building as much as we think
[43:27] to use the chips that we're hoarding
[43:29] right now to compete with other people.
[43:31] I think that is a real risk that is
[43:33] going to show up. I also think the
[43:35] adoption numbers I've now spoken to a
[43:37] variety of people uh at senior levels at
[43:40] big institutions as much as AI is being
[43:43] adopted and people are getting um
[43:45] anthropic in there they still don't
[43:48] they're not seeing the productivity
[43:49] numbers um they're not seeing the actual
[43:52] change they haven't fired people at most
[43:54] institutions so I think one of the
[43:56] things that it could become an issue too
[43:58] is the token costs are are are spiking
[44:01] because we've had a lot of people
[44:02] ordering anthropic The question is if
[44:05] that starts to flatten out a little bit.
[44:06] We've been in this game of extrapolating
[44:08] the present. So sometimes when you get
[44:10] in the thing of extrapolating
[44:12] exponential numbers, the supply
[44:14] bottleneck starts to become an issue or
[44:17] the adoption process becomes an issue or
[44:19] cost becomes an issue. And this is what
[44:21] I wrote about this week. I think the
[44:22] bottleneck or the neg the next negative
[44:24] trade for AI is not that it's a bubble
[44:27] in terms of the spend. it's that we just
[44:29] can't we're not prepared for the amount
[44:31] of volume that we need and the
[44:34] bottlenecks that are showing up
[44:35] throughout it are real. But then you
[44:37] have the other bottleneck that was just
[44:38] added 3 months ago which is the straight
[44:40] of hor moves. When you combine all those
[44:42] together and inflation going higher and
[44:43] the Fed raising rates possibly, we might
[44:46] see a a a immediate shift in profit
[44:50] margin expectations.
[44:53] When we go and we take a look now at uh
[44:56] Jeff Bezos, uh Jamie Diamond, many of
[44:59] these people, they keep talking about
[45:00] taxes and I find it very interesting
[45:03] because uh there now seems to be a
[45:06] coming of, you know, the uh uh butdding
[45:08] of heads. It used to be that wealthy
[45:10] people really didn't talk that much
[45:12] about taxes, but they seem to become
[45:13] more outspoken. We had an idea that was
[45:16] proposed by Jeff Bezos this week, which
[45:18] was that the bottom 50% of Americans
[45:22] should not have to pay tax. And so they
[45:24] contributed about 3% of the federal
[45:26] budget. His point was if you make
[45:28] $70,000, if you're sending 10 or $12,000
[45:31] to Washington, one, that's an incredible
[45:33] amount of your of the money that you
[45:36] need to live. Uh it'd be very impactful
[45:38] if you didn't have to send it. But also,
[45:40] Washington's not exactly the best, most
[45:42] capital efficient, you know, kind of uh
[45:44] uh allocators. What I find interesting
[45:47] is I don't know what's going to happen
[45:49] on the tax front, but all of a sudden,
[45:52] again, it's getting back to this idea of
[45:54] like the federal budget, the federal
[45:57] spending is really the thing that I
[45:59] think these wealthy people are
[46:00] attacking.
[46:02] Will we get a change there or are you
[46:04] convinced that look, this thing is going
[46:05] to, you know, kind of explode higher?
[46:07] The national debt will continue to go
[46:08] up. government spending is only going to
[46:10] get worse and Doge, you know, didn't
[46:12] work to the degree that people wanted it
[46:14] to. And so, we just need to be all
[46:16] prepared for um you know, kind of more
[46:18] pain from uh from the government
[46:20] spending.
[46:23] >> So, let let's let's
[46:25] do it this way. Um, we haven't talked
[46:27] about this, but
[46:30] I remember um I listened to a podcast
[46:32] today with uh with Yan with John Vanek,
[46:36] who you've interviewed before and who
[46:38] you interviewed at one of the events
[46:40] that that I was on stage with you at,
[46:42] and it was the first time I I had seen
[46:44] him speak. Number one, he's very smart.
[46:46] Number two, he's very thoughtful. But
[46:48] you guys had a debate, and I hate to
[46:50] bring up something that that that you
[46:51] were wrong on, but I I'm I'm bringing it
[46:53] up more for a point. Um and this was on
[46:56] can we actually balance the budget and
[46:58] can we actually get and and he he
[47:01] basically was as direct as he said there
[47:03] is no chance that we can do that. Now
[47:07] his point as someone who I find very
[47:09] thoughtful on this is the clock is
[47:11] ticking every day. So whenever we see
[47:13] the debt clock that's one thing but the
[47:17] real issue is of the receipts that we
[47:20] get. So let's assume the stock market's
[47:22] booming, the economy is booming, and
[47:24] right now the receipts that the
[47:26] government gets are effectively
[47:27] equivalent to the entitlements plus the
[47:31] interest expense.
[47:33] So the entitlements, we're running into
[47:36] a shortfall soon, meaning we don't want
[47:38] to have the money to pay for it. We're
[47:39] going to have to refund things to
[47:41] actually go or go borrow the money. How
[47:43] are we going to go borrow more money
[47:44] when our rates are up? So, at some
[47:46] point, if someone has bad credit and
[47:48] they need to come to the market to
[47:50] borrow more money on their house, it's
[47:52] not the original mortgage rate. It's
[47:54] when you run out of income, it's really
[47:56] hard. The the government is in a very,
[47:58] very difficult situation. Everything is
[48:00] firing on cylinders. We're trying to
[48:02] basically inflate our way out of this
[48:05] problem from everything that I can see,
[48:06] which is why the Fed can't raise rates.
[48:09] But the issue that comes in as much as
[48:11] the tax like figuring out all these
[48:13] games, the entitlement thing just stares
[48:16] me in the face every single day. That is
[48:18] the pressure point that is growing. The
[48:20] entitlements grow every year because of
[48:22] demographics, because of the health of
[48:24] people of the country. And that reality
[48:26] is just coming and coming and coming.
[48:28] And so this is the point of when you
[48:30] look around Japan and you look around
[48:32] the UK, the similarity between Japan and
[48:35] the UK are these two little countries
[48:37] that are very important to the global
[48:38] environment and their 30-year bond
[48:40] yields are just going higher. And
[48:43] they've had issues inside both
[48:45] countries. And I think to pretend like
[48:47] that their issues are not going to be
[48:49] something that puts a spotlight on this
[48:51] situation, we can play whatever games we
[48:53] want with the tax thing. It's not going
[48:55] to fix the problem because the problem
[48:57] gets worse every year and now we have
[48:59] inflation. And if there's one thing that
[49:01] doesn't get talked about, and I heard
[49:04] Luke Groman talk about this, and I'm
[49:05] going to I'm going to show it in the
[49:06] video this week. What the Iran situation
[49:10] ended up doing was front-loading the
[49:13] inflation. And the problem is it's
[49:15] putting pressure on the bond yields.
[49:16] Pressure on the bond yields is leading
[49:18] to the dollar rallying. Like all of
[49:19] these things are happening. And now we
[49:20] have rate hikes. So Iran is a far far
[49:23] bigger situation for the long term when
[49:26] it gets back to the debt and deficit
[49:27] than I think people realize. And I don't
[49:29] want this to be some like doom and gloom
[49:31] thing because we just continue to print
[49:33] our way out and vote our way out. But I
[49:35] think you have to remember that the
[49:37] government is going to have to do
[49:38] something to keep yields in check and
[49:41] that means buying some that's very
[49:43] positive for the whole crypto thing and
[49:45] I think that's the endgame for all of
[49:46] this honestly for people that are
[49:48] watching since most of them are crypto.
[49:50] We go through this routine all the time.
[49:52] You need a crisis for Bitcoin to come
[49:54] out of it soaring and usually comes out
[49:56] of soaring whether it's COVID, whether
[49:58] it's 2022 when they stopped raising
[50:00] rates. I think we're getting closer to
[50:02] the government having to do something on
[50:03] the long end of the curve because all
[50:04] these pressures are growing and this
[50:06] debate over taxes. It means the
[50:08] municipalities are going to have an
[50:09] issue because people are going to keep
[50:10] moving to Florida or moving to Texas and
[50:12] that's what's happening for wealthy
[50:13] people.
[50:15] >> What um what else are you going to show
[50:16] in your video this week?
[50:18] I I'm going to talk I'm going to give a
[50:19] lot of again we we talk on this I don't
[50:22] show any slides we don't go through
[50:24] anything. So when people try to you know
[50:26] think about well what's different
[50:28] between what I talk about on the weekend
[50:31] you and I don't go through what I'm
[50:32] going to talk about and I've spent the
[50:34] week kind of going through with the
[50:36] facts behind what I talk about here. So
[50:38] if people wonder how does he have all
[50:40] this information in my head? Well, I'm
[50:42] doing a lot of work during the week just
[50:44] like you Anthony is to go through and
[50:46] and be able to talk about these things.
[50:48] We don't prep. We don't go through this,
[50:50] but the shaping of what we talk about is
[50:52] things that intersect. And I think the
[50:53] intersection for this week, guys, is as
[50:56] well as everything is doing. My thematic
[50:58] portfolio has had a huge run. Um, I will
[51:01] say for people who are interested,
[51:02] particularly on the RAIA and FA side,
[51:05] you should tune in because I am getting
[51:07] things listed uh not in an ETF for a
[51:10] variety of reasons, but Morgan Stanley
[51:12] and I are working on things to basically
[51:14] have an index that is trackable in at
[51:16] least Bloomberg, but it's very good for
[51:18] institutions who are looking to be more
[51:20] involved. And again, these are a hundred
[51:22] names that I think are going to survive
[51:23] whatever we're talking about here
[51:25] because the AI buildout is going to
[51:26] happen. the path between here and there
[51:29] I will talk about I think we're entering
[51:30] a different regime and as a trader as my
[51:34] father taught me when I would go when
[51:35] he'd teach me okay if you're going to
[51:37] the racetrack and you've got a certain
[51:39] amount of money uh you may only find
[51:41] three races where there's edge in it for
[51:43] you and those are the three you should
[51:45] bet don't be this person who bets on
[51:47] every race and believes that you have an
[51:49] edge in every race you want to find
[51:51] things where you've done your homework
[51:52] where you've done your analysis and then
[51:53] go through I think in the case of the
[51:55] memory market the DRAM market. If you're
[51:57] trading momentum right now, it is not
[52:00] completely collapsed, but I would have
[52:02] one eye open and be ready to kind of
[52:04] reduce your risk and already be taking
[52:06] cash. What I'm doing is rotating into
[52:08] stuff that might be a little early, but
[52:10] I think the downside is limited and the
[52:12] riskreward is shifted where I think I'm
[52:14] getting back into these good scenarios.
[52:16] So, I'm going to kind of teach people
[52:17] that I'll show them a little bit more on
[52:19] the thematic portfolio and I will get
[52:21] into a couple more names that maybe they
[52:22] haven't thought about. uh and this is in
[52:24] the IP side which have been left for
[52:26] dead names that are probably more
[52:28] important in the power situation but
[52:29] they're more defensive and so if we get
[52:31] in a situation that's less momentum
[52:33] you're probably going to see the
[52:34] defensive names start to outperform and
[52:36] that's the place that I would kind of
[52:37] hide my money for the near term
[52:39] >> makes uh makes complete sense to me I
[52:41] appreciate you doing this every single
[52:43] person here should go Jordy Visser on
[52:44] YouTube go hit subscribe go check out
[52:46] your substack I I think I'm like Jordy
[52:48] Visser president of your fan club that's
[52:50] what I've determined so uh everyone
[52:54] my man.
[52:54] >> Yeah, it's my job to go get uh you know,
[52:56] get more people to join the fan club. Uh
[52:58] but I appreciate you doing this and uh
[53:00] and next week we're going to be back in
[53:02] person, I think. Right.
[53:02] >> Back in person next week.
[53:05] >> All right, sounds good. We'll uh we'll
[53:06] talk soon. Okay.
[53:07] >> All right, bud. See you. Have a good
[53:09] one.