# Bitcoin Dynamic DCA: How I Navigate Crypto

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx_neha7BVQ

[00:00] Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse.
[00:04] Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing something I've talked about six years ago which is dynamic DCA and it is what I use to navigate buying and selling Bitcoin.
[00:20] If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
[00:24] Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.
[00:32] Let's go ahead and jump in.
[00:35] So, there's two separate things that we have to make sure that everyone understands.
[00:40] There is a difference between being right and making money.
[00:46] That might sound crazy, but there is a huge difference between the two.
[00:51] And the longer you are in the markets, the more you will realize that for yourself.
[00:55] Right now, there's always a lot of discussion as to where Bitcoin will bottom out in terms of price.
[01:03] End of the day, in a few years, none of that's really going to matter.
[01:07] The point is is who took action and who did not, not who got it right.
[01:11] And I want to be clear that one of the biggest mistakes that investors make is they spend a lot of time overanalyzing stuff and trying to time the exact bottom when most of the money is not made trying to time the exact bottom.
[01:26] The majority of money of that is made is usually just in the middle of trends when you just trade the trend that you have in front of you.
[01:36] So what I want to do in this video is provide an update to a video that I put out six years ago.
[01:39] Six years ago, we actually had very similar market conditions to what we have today.
[01:47] I know that might sound crazy, but it is.
[01:50] I have compared this post apathetic top digestion phase to 2019 a number of times and I stand by that assessment.
[02:04] because Bitcoin topped on apathy and not euphoria.
[02:06] There was no rotation into altcoins.
[02:07] Bitcoin topped two months before quantitative tightening.
[02:11] In both cases, the Fed cut interest rates three times in 2019 just like they did in 2025.
[02:17] It's all very similar.
[02:20] So, because of that, let's revisit what was a successful strategy back then, right?
[02:30] And it starts with this risk metric.
[02:33] This risk metric was developed five or six years ago.
[02:36] I think six years ago.
[02:39] the earliest video I could find on it without digging too hard.
[02:41] I mean there might be one slightly before this one.
[02:42] It was called Bitcoin risk analysis using machine learning.
[02:47] I put this one out six years ago.
[02:48] As you can see the time stamp on the video was six years ago and I went through the strategy of how I bought Bitcoin, right?
[03:00] I went through that strategy and I went through the strategy of how I sold Bitcoin.
[03:03] I don't do it exactly how I how
[03:06] I said it back then now.
[03:09] Uh but I still operate in a very similar fashion.
[03:12] So let's talk about this chart.
[03:14] Before we talk about the chart, let me just get you guys to understand what we're looking at.
[03:19] This chart right here is the same thing as the one you see way back over here.
[03:21] It's the same exact thing.
[03:22] All right.
[03:24] When you look at this chart, you'll notice that there's the blue line, which is the price of Bitcoin, and the orange line, which is the risk.
[03:31] And the risk in this case is developed based on the Bitcoin price alone accounting for diminishing returns from one cycle to another.
[03:41] The point is is that there is no guarantee that every rally is a euphoric one.
[03:49] We saw that in 2019.
[03:53] We also saw that in 2025.
[03:57] So what I said back then was because we can't know that every rally is a euphoric one.
[04:00] One thing that you could do is when you get above the 0.5 risk level between say 0.5 and 6
[04:09] Risk, what I said I did back then was I would sell why.
[04:16] What does that mean? What does it mean why?
[04:17] Well, what I said, what I said was that if you take your entire Bitcoin position and divide it into 15s.
[04:27] What I said was that I would sell 1/15th between .5 and 6, two 15ths between 6 and 7, 3/15ths between 7 and 08, 4 between 08 and 0.9, and 5/15ths or 1/3 of my Bitcoin between 0.9 and 1.
[04:46] That was the idea.
[04:52] And I bought Bitcoin in the opposite fashion.
[04:54] Let's say I wanted to DCA in a certain amount of US dollars into Bitcoin each month.
[05:02] Okay?
[05:06] Let's say it was $100.
[05:08] Let's say I want to put $100 into Bitcoin every week, but I want to
[05:11] Increase that if times get tough in terms of the market, right?
[05:16] Like if markets go down, I want to increase that if possible.
[05:21] So what I talked about was that if Bitcoin goes to between 0.4 to 0.5 risk, I would buy say $100 worth of Bitcoin that time that I DCA maybe.
[05:31] So that month, $100 worth of Bitcoin.
[05:35] And if we went down to 0.3 to 0.4 risk and it came down for me to buy and it came time for me to buy Bitcoin again, I would then buy $200 worth of Bitcoin.
[05:44] And then when it went down to 0.2 to 0.3, I would buy 300.
[05:48] And if it went down to 0.1 to 0, I'd buy $400 worth.
[05:51] And if it went all the way down, that's where I would I would put in $500.
[05:56] The hard part about it is it requires a lot of discipline and a lot of patience because a lot of people just want to throw everything they have at the market and usually they want to do that at the end of post having years.
[06:08] But the reality is that if you just started DCAing when the markets got lower, then you could make a
[06:14] decent amount of money.
[06:16] At least that's what happened back then.
[06:18] It didn't matter if you timed it perfectly.
[06:21] As long as you DCAD for a year or two, you could then enjoy the spoils of the bull market.
[06:27] That was the argument I made back then.
[06:29] and and I I spent a lot of time convincing people why it didn't matter timing the bottom.
[06:39] I then talked about the video again, this idea with another video that was also put out six years ago, risk management with buying and selling and talking about how one of the most one of the easiest strategies was just buying Bitcoin anytime it goes below 0.2 risk, dcaing Bitcoin anytime it goes below 0.2 to risk and stop over complicating it.
[07:01] All right.
[07:04] So these charts that you see here are what we essentially have today.
[07:07] Right?
[07:09] So back then we were sort of playing around with different different things.
[07:13] Uh but the model you know sort of the model
[07:15] that we have um looks like this.
[07:21] Okay.
[07:24] And or sorry this is yeah this is the one right now.
[07:28] The Bitcoin risk is according to that model that we published you know according to this model right here that was published back in you know 2019 2020 time frame.
[07:39] the current risk is 0 296 that's where the current risk is.
[07:47] so if you wanted to let's say DCA Bitcoin and in these days I'm more riskaverse I don't I don't DCA Bitcoin below 0.5 risk uh so what I did right.
[07:56] What I did was uh two cycles ago when I made that video I DCA below 0.5.
[08:02] and then last cycle I DCA below point4.
[08:06] and then this cycle I think it makes the most amount of sense for me to DCA below.
[08:11] .3.
[08:13] Okay.
[08:13] And we're we're just below uh.3
[08:16] risk right now.
[08:16] Right.
[08:19] We're at 0 296.
[08:19] And with things like the supply the the supply of profit and loss for Bitcoin crossing, we must be aware that the market cycle bottom historically comes within the next 1 to four months, right?
[08:30] It is not my objective to time the bottom.
[08:34] The post I put out talking about that stuff is more of an academic exercise because there's a difference between being right and making money.
[08:39] There is.
[08:43] And that is a lesson you will learn if you're in the markets long enough.
[08:48] There is a difference between being right and making money.
[08:50] And so my argument is this.
[08:54] For me, let's say as an example that I want to put in X amount of month, but in this case, I'm splitting it up into six.
[09:04] So like I would put in let's say my weekly DCA or let's call it my monthly DCA is $100, right?
[09:14] All right, let's say I put $100 into the market in June because we're
[09:18] between 02 and.3 and this cycle I want to DCA below.3 risk.
[09:23] Okay, so let's say I put $100 in.
[09:28] And next month, let's say Bitcoin is still between.3 and point4 risk.
[09:31] I'd put $100 in again.
[09:35] But let's say that come September, we drop down to between 0.1 and 2 risk.
[09:39] then I would put in $200.
[09:45] And if we go all the way down to the lows 0 to 0.1, then I would put in $300 that month.
[09:52] So that by doing that, I've weighted my buys at lower prices.
[09:57] That doesn't mean it's a bad idea to buy Bitcoin at.3 risk, right?
[09:59] Like if you give it enough time, you're going to look back and realize that, hey, like that probably was actually a pretty good price, even if it didn't feel like it at the time, right?
[10:08] Like when when we were at.3 risk in 2018 and we went down, yeah, it felt pretty bad at the time buying Bitcoin at 6K when it fell to 3K,
[10:18] but then a few months later, it just didn't matter.
[10:20] In 2022, did it feel bad buying Bitcoin at 40K or 38K when then it fell down to 20K or 15K?
[10:26] Yeah.
[10:31] And in 2014 when Bitcoin fell down to $4500, did it feel bad when it crashed to less than 200?
[10:38] Absolutely.
[10:42] But, you know, a few months later, it just didn't really matter anymore.
[10:45] And and predicting the exact low was kind of irrelevant, right?
[10:51] Dynamic DCA, I think, is the way to go.
[10:54] That way, when you're trending in a bull market, right?
[10:57] Okay, when you're trending in a bull market and the risk level is say between like 3.4 because it can stay there a really long period of time, you can still, you know, put money into the market if you're if you're sort of wanting to buy up to that risk level, but a smaller amount, maybe a smaller amount than what you would have during the market cycle bottom.
[11:17] That way you're still DCAing, but you know that your
[11:20] cost basis is going to remain relatively low because you put a lot more in at the actual when we actually have these big drops.
[11:27] I've talked about October being the most likely time frame for a low for Bitcoin for a while.
[11:34] But again, the reality is is no one knows when the lows actually going to occur.
[11:39] And my point is it doesn't matter.
[11:42] What matters is when we go to low risk levels, do you capitalize on it or do you freeze and don't know what to do?
[11:51] So, one thing I realized back then as well that was a mistake.
[11:58] And by the way, I created this because I was sort of doing something similar to it in the 2016 2017 bull run.
[12:07] Um, but not not really in a in a concrete mathematical sense.
[12:09] It was more of like how I felt like all right it feels like the prices are low or it feels like the prices are high and that doesn't work out as well as if you just follow a rigorous mathematical model that says hey this is what this is what
[12:23] where Bitcoin is currently based on historical data and based on this this is what I want to put into the market
[12:30] and so what I find is during times like now the summer of midterm years this is the best time to really develop these strategies
[12:38] Because when the market is really boring, not really doing a whole lot, you can think clearly.
[12:45] When the market is shooting upwards in the future and it's euphoric, you can't think clearly.
[12:49] Or if the market is dropping a lot, you can't really think clearly.
[12:53] So what you have to do to be successful in my opinion is to come up with a strategy now so that you're not you're not later on you're not scrambling to figure out what to do.
[13:05] And that's the point.
[13:08] And I told you guys at the at the end of last year, just ignore Bitcoin for the first half of the midterm year.
[13:12] Just ignore it because all the counter trend rallies are going to get sold off.
[13:15] But now that we're approaching the back half of the midterm year, you could argue that the
[13:25] Accumulation phase is is is starting.
[13:28] Okay?
[13:31] And oftentimes what I've did what I did in both 2018 and in 2022 is I started accumulating Bitcoin after the June low.
[13:36] Right?
[13:39] So after the June low is when I bought and I just DCA.
[13:43] In 2018 I bought Bitcoin and I like an like an idiot, I also bought a lot of altcoins and the Fed bailed me out on those altcoins.
[13:52] Thank you to our my friends at the Fed and and you know what's a few trillion dollars among friends?
[13:57] But they bailed me out, right?
[13:59] They bailed out my dumb decisions.
[14:02] And what happened is that when the bull market came back, Bitcoin led the euphoric rally and Bitcoin dominance went to new all-time highs.
[14:08] And the altcoins I bought, for the most part, with the exception of like one of them, for the most part, they all bled to Bitcoin until that euphoric rally.
[14:16] In 2022, I started buying Bitcoin after the June low.
[14:19] So, in this cycle, I look back at 2018 and 2022 and I say, you
[14:26] know what, it worked out.
[14:28] then I can't guarantee that it's going to work out again.
[14:29] But if it's not broke, why fix it, right?
[14:38] So my strategy in this case, uh I was even wearing a college shirt in that in that in that back in that time.
[14:47] Um but in in the current cycle what I say is what about the idea of just simply DCAing Bitcoin below.3 risk.
[14:59] Now that doesn't mean that's what you have to do.
[15:02] I think for a lot of people it would make sense to DCA below point4 risk or.5 risk.
[15:08] But as time goes on I'm less interested in like you know top blasting higher prices.
[15:13] I'd rather just put what I want into the market, a lot of what I want into the market near the end of the midterm year and the early part of the pre-h having year and and then just let it rock and roll, you know, and and and and not chase it as as
[15:26] The rally continues.
[15:28] What's difficult is inevitably if we do get a bull market.
[15:30] People will then come in the bull market to the channel and be like, "All right, should I buy Bitcoin?"
[15:34] I'm like, "Well, I bought it in the midterm year or in the early phases of the post the pre-h having year.
[15:39] You can buy it if you want to, but I'm not buying it.
[15:41] And then what'll happen is then a lot of people will then dunk on me because they'll be like, "Oh, well, Ben's not buying it.
[15:46] He's bearish."
[15:47] But in reality, the time to buy it was in the midterm year or in the pre-h having year.
[15:53] Okay, so that is the simplest strategy, right?
[15:56] Is it really a bad thing?
[15:58] Like, think about it.
[15:59] Think about the guys that just bought Bitcoin anytime it capitulated below 0.2 risk.
[16:04] You know, and and just lump summed time.
[16:06] Like, was that a bad strategy?
[16:09] No.
[16:09] But you would go years in between without buying anything.
[16:11] But as long as you can do that and not feel like you're missing out, then who cares, right?
[16:15] Like it's not a bad strategy.
[16:17] The issue is if you only sell at 0.9 risk.
[16:23] There will be bull markets like 2019 and like 2025 where you don't go to the
[16:29] euphoric areas because monetary policy kind of allows Bitcoin to top out on apathy rather than euphoria and there's just not retail investors coming back into the space.
[16:37] So we've seen that we saw that happen in 2019 and in 2025.
[16:41] We have two great examples of it.
[16:44] If you look at, you know, similar types of risk metrics colorcoded, look at this price colorcoded by the risk.
[16:55] This shows you that this whole bull market was similar to the 2019 one where it topped on apathy and then it came back down and then after this postappathetic top digestion phase we then had a euphoric rally.
[17:07] So I think we're kind of somewhere in this in this range over here and it just happens to be that the postappathetic top digestion phase in 2019 just happens to line up with the midterm year.
[17:19] So, the four-year cycle wins again.
[17:24] Is it a coincidence?
[17:27] I don't know.
[17:27] I don't really care, right?
[17:29] It just it wins again.
[17:31] So, when I look at this chart, I say, "All right, how much time does Bitcoin spend in these wristbands?
[17:37] How much time?
[17:41] Bitcoin spends the most amount of its time in the 3 to point 4 wristband.
[17:46] Remember, right now we're in the 0 2 to.3 wristband.
[17:51] Out of all of Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin has spent only about 14.73% of its time in the current wristband.
[18:00] It has spent 12.5% of its time between 0.1 and 0.2 risk.
[18:07] And it has only spent 2.34% of its time between zero and 0.1 risk.
[18:14] Out of all the days that Bitcoin has been around, it has only spent 135 days in the lowest risk band.
[18:20] Only 135 days.
[18:25] So, what does that mean?
[18:28] It means that when you do get drops to those levels,
[18:31] they tend to come and go and people don't buy them.
[18:34] And there's again, there's no guarantee you go down there.
[18:37] We did go down there in 2018.
[18:39] We went down there on an intraday wick in 2020.
[18:41] It didn't happen on the daily close, but it did happen on the intraday wick.
[18:45] Um I believe um maybe not actually.
[18:48] Maybe we got really really close.
[18:50] We got really close to it.
[18:52] It was like 0.13.12 risk or something like that.
[18:54] We got really close.
[18:57] There's no guarantee you go down to 0.1 risk, right?
[18:58] Like the last time we did was 2018.
[19:02] But my point is this.
[19:02] If we were to go down there, would you actually buy or would you get scared and not buy because you're worried about something else happening?
[19:13] I would be a bigger buyer at those levels.
[19:15] So, I think dynamic DCA beats out DCA if you have patience, right?
[19:23] If you have long-term patience, if you know yourself and you know that you can't just put in a $100 or whatever your ex is, right?
[19:30] Right?
[19:30] If it's $100 a month
[19:32] or $1,000 a month or 10,000, whatever it is,
[19:34] if you know that you're just burning a that money's burning a hole in your pocket and you just got to get in the market, then DCA might be better for you than dynamic DCA.
[19:41] But if you can kind of sit on a small cash position through the midterm year while slowly DCAing in, then I find that dynamic DCA actually ends up working a lot better.
[19:52] All right, let me give you an example.
[19:58] This is a Bitcoin DCA simulation tool.
[20:02] If you want access to this tool, go to into the cryptoverse.com and sign up for the free tier.
[20:10] This DCA tool is is free for DCAing equal amounts.
[20:15] If you want to do the dynamic DCA, I don't know if that's on the free tier or not, but if you want to just DCA equal amounts, you can go look, you can go play around with this stuff, right?
[20:26] Okay?
[20:26] And you can look at a lot of different assets.
[20:27] You can see how it would have performed.
[20:29] Let's say you bought $30.30
[20:35] worth of Bitcoin every week and you
[20:38] bought it every Monday starting in 2014.
[20:42] How that have worked out and through
[20:45] today, you would have purchased $18,31
[20:49] worth of Bitcoin. Over that time, you
[20:52] would have accumulated 11.2 Bitcoin. And
[20:54] today your portfolio value would be
[20:56] about $75,000.
[20:58] Right? All you did was you bought
[21:01] Bitcoin every Monday
[21:04] and you put in $30.
[21:07] Why Monday?
[21:09] We're going to get to this chart later.
[21:11] Why Monday? It's a good question.
[21:15] We have this chart on the website as
[21:17] well that shows you the best day to DCA
[21:18] various assets, right? So, you can
[21:20] actually come in here and change the
[21:21] asset to a lot of different
[21:22] cryptocurrencies and stocks and
[21:24] commodities and indices and and forex
[21:26] and all that stuff. Historically, the
[21:29] best day to buy Bitcoin is on Monday.
[21:33] Historically.
[21:35] Why is that? Well, Bitcoin generally
[21:38] trends up with time. And usually buying
[21:39] earlier in the week is is the best time
[21:42] to buy. The same thing is true for the
[21:44] stock market. If you were to flip this
[21:46] over to the stock market, the S&P 500
[21:49] and again looking at data for a long
[21:50] time, the best day to DCA by far is
[21:53] Monday. The y-axis here shows you the
[21:55] average extension from the 7-day simple
[21:57] moving average. So on Monday, it's not
[22:00] as extended as it is every other day of
[22:02] the week, which is why Monday is the
[22:04] best day to to buy
[22:07] for Bitcoin.
[22:09] really it's like like Sunday night,
[22:11] Monday morning often has better returns
[22:14] than if you bought every say like
[22:15] Wednesday or something. Um, and we could
[22:19] even test that, right? Like I mean, why
[22:22] why just blow smoke and and talk about
[22:24] it hypothetically? Look at this. Okay,
[22:26] if you bought every Monday, you've
[22:28] invested 18.3K over the last 12 years,
[22:31] your valuation of your portfolio is now
[22:33] 705,000.
[22:34] if you did it every Wednesday,
[22:37] 690,000.
[22:39] So it it it would have made a
[22:40] difference, right? About a $15,000
[22:42] difference. And and so it would have
[22:44] made a difference if you you know, if
[22:46] you did it if you DCA on Wednesday
[22:47] instead of of Monday. But what we're
[22:50] going to do now is we're going to say,
[22:52] all right, that's an equal weight DCA.
[22:54] You're putting in $30 a week no matter
[22:57] what. Now
[23:00] again, total invested 18.3K.
[23:04] Now, dynamic DCA
[23:06] in this case, you have to change your X
[23:08] amount because it's it's dynamic. It
[23:10] changes. You're some weeks you're
[23:12] putting in 30, but you might you might
[23:14] put in 61 or or 90. You might put in
[23:18] more other weeks if you if you see it,
[23:22] you know, go further down the risk
[23:23] levels. Now, if you do that,
[23:28] we have to change our X to 100. And you
[23:31] can see you're putting in the same
[23:32] amount, $18.3,000.
[23:35] Why is it the same amount? Why is it the
[23:36] same amount if you're putting in more
[23:38] per week and even putting in $300 if it
[23:40] goes all the way down to the lows in the
[23:42] risk measure? The reason why is because
[23:44] we have it set, you're only accumulating
[23:46] up to.3 risk. Meaning anytime it goes
[23:49] above that, I'm not buying Bitcoin at
[23:51] all. So the D the equal weight DCA,
[23:55] you're putting in $30 a week no matter
[23:57] what. Right? in in Bitcoin could be, you
[24:00] know, you're everyone could be talking
[24:02] about Bitcoin. The taxi driver is asking
[24:04] you about it. You go get a haircut,
[24:05] they're asking you about it. Everyone's
[24:07] talking about it. Your grandmother's
[24:08] calling you up asking you what Bitcoin
[24:10] is and you're still buying no matter
[24:13] what. That's why your weekly DCA has to
[24:16] be lower in order to put in the same
[24:17] amount of money because you're always
[24:19] putting it in. If you're not always
[24:22] putting it in the market and you're just
[24:23] simply buying when we're at a low risk
[24:25] level, then your DCA goes up, right? So,
[24:28] you accumulate cash position the end of
[24:30] the post having year. You then start to
[24:32] deploy that at the end of the midterm
[24:34] year or at least sort of the second half
[24:36] of the midterm year after the June low.
[24:39] If you do that, your X amount can be
[24:41] higher and you're still accumulating.
[24:44] You're still spending the same amount
[24:45] since 2014, but instead of your
[24:47] portfolio being worth $700,000
[24:50] is now worth almost $2.1 million.
[24:55] That's the difference. That's the
[24:57] difference if you have the patience to
[24:59] dynamic DCA.
[25:01] Again, a lot of people don't have that
[25:03] patience. And I, you know, like I
[25:05] there's been times in my life when I
[25:07] wouldn't have had that patience. Like
[25:08] when I was in my 20s, I certainly
[25:10] wouldn't have had that patience. I did
[25:12] not create this risk metric until six
[25:15] years ago. And six years ago, I was 30
[25:17] years old. So, it it took until my late
[25:20] 20s to even have this concept, to sort
[25:22] of think about it in the 2016, 2017 bull
[25:26] market. I didn't talk about it publicly
[25:28] until I was 30 years old. If I was 20
[25:30] years old, 21, 22, 23, I'd have been top
[25:33] blasting the highs and buying every
[25:34] altcoin you could name. I'm very
[25:36] fortunate that I did not have a YouTube
[25:38] channel when I was 22 because if I had I
[25:41] I fear that my reputation might be a
[25:43] little bit different to be completely
[25:44] honest. But we grow up, right? We
[25:47] mature. We we adjust the way we invest
[25:51] and you know the best day to buy Bitcoin
[25:54] historically is Monday. If you look at
[25:58] the dynamic DCA, you can see the
[26:00] benefits that it has. But the only way
[26:02] you can use it is if you're not top
[26:05] blasting the highs at the end of post
[26:07] having years calling for a super cycle,
[26:09] right? If you're calling for a super
[26:10] cycle and you're just putting all your
[26:12] money in the market, well then how are
[26:14] you going to put your money in the
[26:14] market when the market actually goes
[26:16] down? And this is the issue that a lot
[26:18] of I I see a lot of influencers have on
[26:20] on Twitter and YouTube is they're always
[26:22] bullish, right? They're always telling
[26:24] you the market's going to go up. And
[26:27] look, there's nothing wrong with being a
[26:28] permab bull as long as you recognize
[26:30] that you're a cheerleader. But the
[26:32] problem is that if you tell people
[26:34] Bitcoin's going to 300K in 2025 and 2026
[26:38] and then the market drops and you're
[26:39] like, "Oh, well, I'm buying more." With
[26:42] what? Right? Like with what? If you
[26:44] truly thought it was going to 300K, you
[26:46] know, how do you have that much cash
[26:49] just sitting around ready to buy more?
[26:52] So the argument is that for some people
[26:54] that might work if they're bringing in a
[26:56] lot of money if they have a really high
[26:58] income stream. But for a lot of people
[27:00] they don't have that luxury. You know,
[27:01] if you if you convince them that Bitcoin
[27:03] is going to go to a million dollars in 5
[27:05] years, why would they wait around for
[27:07] the for the midterm year to play out?
[27:09] They just want to get in now, you know,
[27:11] or get in at the highs. They would top
[27:13] blasting 120K because everyone told them
[27:16] it was going to 200. So when the market
[27:18] drops to 60 like it did in February and
[27:22] then bounced back to 83, everyone on
[27:25] Twitter was dunking on me.
[27:28] But most of them were bullish at 120,
[27:30] you know? So I'm like, look, what did
[27:33] you even buy with when it went to 60K if
[27:36] you were if you were permable posting at
[27:38] 120? So if you can have the discipline
[27:42] to not top blast the highs at the end of
[27:44] the post having year and to start
[27:46] getting a cash position to then deploy
[27:48] in the second half of the midterm year
[27:50] then you can employ the dynamic DCA
[27:53] strategy which I think has a lot of
[27:55] benefits
[27:57] and the beauty of it
[27:59] is that it doesn't matter if you have a
[28:04] different risk tolerance than me. Maybe
[28:07] you decide, you know what, Ben's too too
[28:09] riskaverse. To hell with DCA up to point
[28:12] three risk. I want to DCA up to point4,
[28:15] you know, and I'll put in a lot more
[28:17] money and I'll take on more risk. You
[28:19] can do that, right? You can absolutely
[28:21] do that. But that's the beauty of it is
[28:23] that there's not a right answer. It's
[28:25] not like, you know, and you can see how
[28:27] it's adjusted the the where you buy,
[28:29] right? You buy a 100 at at between.3 and
[28:31] 04, 200 between point uh 2 to.3 uh 300
[28:36] between 0.1 to point 2 and then 400
[28:37] between 0 and.1. And if you DCA monthly,
[28:41] that's just what I did. Again, not this
[28:42] is not financial advice. This is just
[28:44] strategies that I found that worked for
[28:46] me. That doesn't mean they're always
[28:47] going to work, but it's strategies that
[28:49] have worked for me. And I think for this
[28:51] cycle,
[28:52] I think DCAing up to.3 risk
[28:56] makes a lot of sense. You know, it makes
[28:59] a lot of sense because now I can look
[29:02] back at this Bitcoin chart and say, you
[29:05] know what,
[29:07] I avoided a lot of the losses in the
[29:09] first eight months of the bare market. I
[29:12] can start to deploy
[29:15] throughout the second half of the
[29:16] midterm year. I'm still gonna be there
[29:19] talking about like where the low might
[29:21] be, but there is a difference between
[29:24] being right and making money. If if
[29:27] Bitcoin bottoms earlier than October or
[29:29] later than October, I'm not going to be
[29:32] sitting there like trying to time the
[29:33] exact bottom. Why is that? I have five
[29:35] kids, you know, I have a life. I don't
[29:37] have time to just like, you know, just
[29:40] like I can't sell the exact top, I can't
[29:42] buy the exact bottom. And the reality is
[29:45] even if you're right and Bitcoin goes
[29:48] lower, what if you're sleeping when it
[29:50] goes lower? Maybe you have a limit order
[29:52] set, but you know, sometimes they don't
[29:54] always get filled. Um, and furthermore,
[29:57] do you really want to leave, you know, a
[29:59] lot of money just sitting around on
[30:01] different exchanges waiting for limit
[30:03] orders to may or may not get filled. So
[30:06] that's why for me DCA works out a lot
[30:10] better, right? It is the winning
[30:12] strategy in crypto, right? Like it
[30:14] really is. And I find dynamic DCA to be
[30:18] even better, right? I find that one to
[30:19] be even better. Now, this is this this
[30:22] is this risk metric. And then maybe
[30:26] three years ago,
[30:28] uh I sort of upgraded this to a
[30:32] different one. I still use this one a
[30:33] lot, but there's another one that we
[30:36] created because this one is a summary
[30:39] risk metric and it incorporates the
[30:41] price risk, which is part of what you
[30:43] just saw. It incorporates onchain risk
[30:47] and it incorporates social risk. So you
[30:50] can see the price risk is the total
[30:52] market cap risk, Bitcoin risk, total
[30:53] market cap and trend line, this corridor
[30:56] I created and the fear and greed index.
[30:58] And the the onchain risk is made up of
[31:00] the peel multiple, the market value to
[31:02] to realize value, the MVRVZ score,
[31:05] transaction fees, terminal price, market
[31:07] cap to thermal cap ratio, and the minor
[31:08] cap to thermal cap ratio. And then
[31:10] social risk is made up of Google trends,
[31:12] the Coinbase app ranking, uh YouTube
[31:15] subscribers and views to various crypto
[31:17] analysts on Twi on YouTube, and then uh
[31:19] Twitter followers to analyst exchanges
[31:21] and layer 1's on Twitter or X, but I'm
[31:24] sorry, it's Twitter. Okay, it's Twitter.
[31:29] And when you do that, you get these
[31:31] different gauges. You have your price
[31:32] risk, your onchain risk, and your social
[31:34] risk. And if you combine all of them
[31:36] into a single risk metric, you get what
[31:38] I call the summary risk.
[31:40] And it looks like this, right? I mean,
[31:42] it looks pretty similar to this other
[31:44] one. Uh, but, you know, I think it's a
[31:46] little bit more helpful. And it also
[31:48] shows you that it was similar to 2019 in
[31:50] terms of how this played out. And you
[31:52] can see that in 2011 and in 2015 and in
[31:56] 2018 we went down to below 0.1 risk. We
[31:59] didn't last cycle. But there's a reason
[32:01] we didn't last cycle. We did if you
[32:03] ignore the onchain risk. So if you take
[32:05] if you turn or sorry if you turn the
[32:07] social risk off. If you ignore the
[32:08] social risk, you turn that off. We did
[32:12] go down there below 0.1. You see that?
[32:15] But the social risk remained high last
[32:17] cycle. And I think it was because people
[32:19] were tuning in to watch the FTX train
[32:21] wreck. So the summary risk didn't quite
[32:24] go down as far. Right now it's at the
[32:27] same level it was at back in 2022.
[32:30] But the difference between now and 2022
[32:33] is the social risk
[32:36] is actually further down than it was
[32:38] back then. Right? So, if the market were
[32:41] to continue to stay like this for the
[32:42] rest of the year um and and kind of just
[32:45] drift lower, you can see how if even if
[32:47] you just want to use the price and
[32:48] onchain risk combined, you can see how
[32:50] every cycle they go to about that 0.1
[32:52] risk level and then it reverses out of
[32:55] it and then the next bull market begins.
[33:00] That doesn't mean it has to go that low.
[33:02] In 2020 again during a similar business
[33:05] cycle conditions we only went down to
[33:07] you know 0.135.
[33:12] But for me this chart is a great chart.
[33:16] I made a I made a change though to how I
[33:19] how I did stuff back then.
[33:22] It was stupid now that I think about it.
[33:24] Back then I would buy you know from 0 to
[33:27] 0.5 risk and then I would sell about 0.5
[33:29] risk. The issue with that that I found
[33:32] was that like I was buying it one week
[33:34] and then like the next week we would go
[33:36] above 0.5 risk and then I would sell
[33:39] like 115th of my Bitcoin. Like what am I
[33:42] doing? You know, this doesn't make
[33:43] sense. And then the next week it would
[33:44] drop right back down. I'd buy it back.
[33:45] I'm like this this makes absolutely no
[33:46] sense. I'm not going to I'm not a day
[33:48] trader here. I'm not a swing trader. I'm
[33:49] not trying to nickel and dime Bitcoin.
[33:52] So what I ended up doing last cycle was
[33:54] I bought up to 0.4 for risk. As I
[33:58] explained many times over the last
[33:59] several years, you can look up risk
[34:01] metric and look at all these videos
[34:02] we've had. I've published them like
[34:04] every year for the last six years. I DTA
[34:06] up to point4 risk and I didn't take
[34:08] profits until above 6 risk. And so I
[34:11] created this like gray region. So I I
[34:13] buy up to a certain risk level. I do
[34:15] nothing for certain risk levels and then
[34:17] above another risk level I start
[34:19] selling. So the argument could simply be
[34:22] that if this cycle I buy up to.3 risk
[34:26] then perhaps I do absolutely nothing
[34:28] between.3 and 6 and then above 6 I might
[34:33] start to scale out slowly. You might say
[34:35] well why scale out at all? Well look at
[34:37] what last cycle every every spike barely
[34:40] got above that 6 risk level got around
[34:42] those levels and so those were the times
[34:43] to ultimately DCA out. I know at the
[34:45] time it wasn't a popular view, but
[34:47] that's what that's what happened. And
[34:49] really, when you look at Bitcoin valued
[34:51] against other assets besides fiat, it
[34:53] topped out in 2024. The valuation of
[34:55] Bitcoin against gold topped out in
[34:57] December 2024.
[34:59] So, you could argue that in the last
[35:01] market cycle, in the last four-ear cycle
[35:04] for Bitcoin, it wasn't even really a
[35:06] great investment after 2024 because 2025
[35:09] just ended up being this massive
[35:11] distribution phase just like 2021 was a
[35:13] massive distribution phase.
[35:17] So,
[35:19] that is how I navigate crypto, right?
[35:21] That is what I do. I dynamic DCA based
[35:25] on the risk metric.
[35:30] That's what I do. And in this case, I
[35:34] applied sort of a timebased
[35:36] capitulation.
[35:39] And what I mean is I I did not buy
[35:41] Bitcoin back in February when we first
[35:45] briefly went below.3 risk. It was
[35:47] because I was applying timebased
[35:49] capitulation. I thought February was far
[35:51] too early in the midterm year to call
[35:54] the low, especially when the supply and
[35:56] profit and loss hadn't even crossed yet.
[35:58] We hadn't gone below the realized price.
[36:00] We still haven't gone below the realized
[36:01] price. But none of like a lot of that
[36:03] stuff hadn't happened. I'm like, there's
[36:04] just not a good chance. There's no way
[36:05] that February is the low, right? We
[36:07] likely will at least go slightly lower
[36:10] than that in June like how we went
[36:12] slightly lower than that in June of
[36:13] 2018. So,
[36:18] but now
[36:20] as we get into the second half of the
[36:22] midterm year, there's a good chance that
[36:24] Bitcoin bottoms out. Okay. In terms of
[36:27] the odds of like when October seems the
[36:31] most likely outcome, could happen
[36:33] sooner, could happen later. Let me give
[36:36] you an example. If Bitcoin risk were to
[36:40] nuke to 0.1 tomorrow, do you think I
[36:43] would wait until October to flip
[36:45] bullish? Absolutely not. Right.
[36:47] Absolutely not. I would pivot in a
[36:50] heartbeat. In a heartbeat,
[36:54] but I can't count on that. Like, I can't
[36:56] count on a massive capitulation. What if
[36:59] it doesn't happen? What if we just spend
[37:01] the rest of the cycle between 0 2 and 3?
[37:04] At least I DCA something, you know? So
[37:08] the way to be successful at Bitcoin is
[37:10] to just come up with a strategy and
[37:13] stick to it no matter what. And for me
[37:16] for the next cycle that especially now
[37:18] that we've gotten kind of gotten to the
[37:20] second near the second half of the
[37:21] midterm year, we're basically in the
[37:23] process of trying to find the June low
[37:25] could be that the low is already in. In
[37:28] some scenarios, it could go lower,
[37:29] right? like maybe we take out that
[37:30] realized price which is in the 50s but
[37:34] that's not historically that's not a bad
[37:36] time to at least begin thinking about
[37:38] about DCAing Bitcoin and then if we go
[37:41] lower I would then increase the DCA so
[37:45] that if we do go lower I can get my cost
[37:48] basis as low as possible before the next
[37:51] bull market begins and that is how I
[37:55] navigate Bitcoin. If you guys like the
[37:57] content, make sure you subscribe to the
[37:59] channel. Give the video a thumbs up. And
[38:00] if you want more information about this,
[38:01] again, check out into the cryptoverse
[38:03] premium at into the cryptoverse.com. We
[38:05] do have the sale going on right now. You
[38:07] can get access to these riskmetrics. You
[38:09] don't have to, right? There's other
[38:10] things that you can use. You can create
[38:12] things yourself. I'm not suggesting that
[38:14] you have to use this one by any stretch
[38:15] of the imagination. And again, as I said
[38:17] previously, if the price to ITC would
[38:21] significantly eat into the amount that
[38:23] you'd be putting into the market,
[38:24] there's no reason to get a subscription.
[38:26] you'd just be better off just DCAing
[38:27] into the market than getting a
[38:29] subscription. But you can get a free
[38:31] subscription and and play around with
[38:34] some of the DCA tools. And there's a few
[38:36] few other charts on there as well that
[38:38] are in fact free. So that's all I would
[38:40] I want to say about that. And I've said
[38:42] that every year basically for the last
[38:43] six years uh seven years, right? if it
[38:46] or six years if it if it's represents a
[38:49] large amount of your dollar cost average
[38:50] amount then you would be far better off
[38:53] you know just DCAing into the market
[38:56] than than going out and buying
[38:57] subscriptions to stuff that are just
[38:58] going to basically tell you to do the
[39:00] same thing with small tweaks. Okay,
[39:03] let's just be honest, right? Let's keep
[39:04] it real. All right, those are my views.
[39:06] Thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe.
[39:07] Give the video a thumbs up. I'll see you
[39:09] guys next time. Bye.