# ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood: Our base case for bitcoin is $600,000, bull case $1.5 million by 2030

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw
Translation: zh-CN

[00:00] Okay, now let's talk pricing.
  好的，我们来谈谈定价。

[00:01] Or I shouldn't say pricing, but the price of Bitcoin.
  或者我不能说定价，而是比特币的价格。

[00:04] Bitcoin, you and I have had conversations now over many years where you've talked about Bitcoin being worth something on the order of $500,000.
  比特币，你我多年来一直有过对话，你曾说过比特币的价值大约在50万美元左右。

[00:11] Uh, literally in only a couple years from now, do you stand by that?
  呃，从现在开始的短短几年内，你还坚持这个说法吗？

[00:13] How does this ETF, uh, change that?
  这个ETF，呃，会如何改变这一点？

[00:16] Uh, speed that up, slow it down, what do you think?
  呃，加速它，减缓它，你怎么看？

[00:19] Yes, uh, so you'll find in our Big Ideas.
  是的，呃，你会在我们的“大创意”中找到。

[00:22] So that's at ark-invest.com, the building blocks for our price forecast.
  所以，这在ark-invest.com上，是我们价格预测的基石。

[00:25] Uh, and our base case is in the $600,000 range.
  呃，我们的基本情况是60万美元的范围。

[00:30] Our bull case, and we think the probability of the bull case has increased with this SEC approval.
  我们的牛市情况，我们认为牛市情况的可能性随着这次SEC的批准而增加。

[00:34] This is a green light, our bull case is $1.5 million by 2030.
  这是一个绿灯，我们的牛市情况是到2030年达到150万美元。

[00:38] You can see the building blocks, you can see how conservative we are in terms of those building blocks.
  你可以看到基石，你可以看到我们在这些基石方面的保守程度。

[00:40] Uh, this is a Big Idea.
  呃，这是一个大创意。

[00:43] It is, it is the first global decentralized, digital, rules-based critical.
  它是，它是第一个全球去中心化的、数字的、基于规则的关键。

[01:03] centralized digital rules-based critical there rules-based monetary system in.
  中心化的数字规则驱动的关键的，这里是规则驱动的货币系统。

[01:05] there rules-based monetary system in history uh it is a very big idea.
  这里是历史上的规则驱动的货币系统，呃，这是一个非常宏大的想法。

[01:09] and it let me ask you the the separate question which is do you believe that for it to get to those type of numbers it has to become a currency.
  让我问你一个独立的问题，那就是你是否相信，为了达到那些数字，它必须成为一种货币。

[01:13] not just an asset um one of the things that Brian Armstrong was talking about is he thinks that this is just going to create a lot more interest in crypto uh across the board.
  不仅仅是一种资产，嗯，布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗谈到的一件事是，他认为这将仅仅是引起加密货币的极大兴趣，呃，在各个方面。

[01:25] and that that is what's going to actually Propel this and may even change the dynamic with which Bitcoin is being used which is currently today as digital gold or something like that.
  而这正是将真正推动它的因素，甚至可能改变比特币的使用方式，目前它被用作数字黄金或类似的东西。

[01:35] but potentially actually could uh Leap Frog into the currency that people have talked about for many years yes.
  但潜在地，它实际上可以，呃，飞跃成为人们谈论了多年的货币，是的。

[01:41] uh uh our first paper on this was in 2015 the white paper still on our site and uh we tried to figure out could Bitcoin serve the three roles of money.
  呃呃，我们关于这个的第一个论文是在2015年，白皮书仍然在我们的网站上，我们试图弄清楚比特币是否能承担货币的三个角色。

[01:52] store of value as you say most uh people agree with that one uh means of exchange unit of account and the answer answer to that was yet yes.
  价值储存，正如你所说，大多数呃，人们都同意这一点，呃，交换媒介，记账单位，而答案，答案是，是的，是的。

[02:00] uh we put out a a a
  呃，我们发布了一个，一个，一个

[02:04] That was yet, yes, uh, we put out a, a, a Bitcoin brainstorm, uh, with our part.
  是的，我们与我们的合作伙伴发布了一个比特币头脑风暴。

[02:06] Bitcoin brainstorm, uh, with our part partner, Bitcoin Park in Nashville and uh.
  比特币头脑风暴，与我们的合作伙伴，纳什维尔的比特币公园，以及...

[02:09] Partner, Bitcoin Park in Nashville and uh, it, it examines the convergence of.
  合作伙伴，纳什维尔的比特币公园，它，它考察了...的融合。

[02:12] It, it examines the convergence of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin and.
  它考察了人工智能和比特币的融合，以及...

[02:15] Artificial intelligence and Bitcoin and you'll hear, uh, his nickname's Roast Beef.
  人工智能和比特币，你将听到，他的昵称是烤牛肉。

[02:18] you'll hear, uh, his nickname's Roast Beef on that, uh, podcast talk about that.
  你将听到，他的昵称是烤牛肉，在那期播客中谈论这个。

[02:22] On that, uh, podcast talk about that convergence and how it's going to, uh.
  在那期播客中谈论这种融合，以及它将如何...

[02:25] Convergence and how it's going to, uh, redefine the division of labor, it's.
  融合，以及它将如何重新定义劳动分工，它...

[02:27] Redefine the division of labor, it's probably going to put the gig economy on.
  重新定义劳动分工，它可能会让零工经济...

[02:29] Probably going to put the gig economy on steroids.
  可能会让零工经济如虎添翼。

[02:30] Steroids and it's starting already in the.
  如虎添翼，并且它已经在...开始。

[02:32] and it's starting already in the emerging markets in Africa in particular.
  并且它已经在新兴市场，尤其是在非洲，开始显现。

[02:35] Emerging markets in Africa in particular, so it's very exciting. I don't think.
  尤其是在非洲的新兴市场，所以这非常令人兴奋。我不认为...

[02:37] So it's very exciting. I don't think people understand how hard at work these.
  所以这非常令人兴奋。我不认为人们理解这些...

[02:41] People understand how hard at work these the developers around the world have.
  人们理解世界各地的开发者们付出了多少努力。

[02:42] Been, uh, lightning network is a, a big.
  一直以来，闪电网络是一个，一个重要的组成部分。

[02:46] Been, uh, lightning network is a, a big part of leveraging, uh, leveraging the.
  一直以来，闪电网络是一个，一个重要的组成部分，利用，利用...

[02:50] Part of leveraging, uh, leveraging the base layer, uh, Bitcoin. So we're very.
  利用，利用基础层的比特币。所以我们非常...

[02:52] Base layer, uh, Bitcoin. So we're very excited and we're so happy that AR KB is.
  基础层的比特币。所以我们非常兴奋，我们很高兴 AR KB 将...

[02:56] Excited and we're so happy that AR KB is going to be part of the ecosystem.
  兴奋，并且我们很高兴 AR KB 将成为生态系统的一部分。