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Analyses techniques sur CRYPTOS au 0911 2022 post sell-off
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Crypto traders and technical analysts looking to understand post-crash market charts and potential bearish scenarios.
TL;DR
Following the FTX and Binance crash, the crypto market remains under heavy pressure and continues to slide into the red. The speaker analyzes daily and weekly technical charts, evaluating key support trends and Fibonacci extensions to determine if a broader bearish Elliott wave scenario is unfolding.
Key Takeaways
- The massive sell-off triggered by the FTX and Binance situation left the crypto market heavily in the red and struggling to digest the fallout.
- The speaker argues that the crypto market remains immature and speculative, often compared to the Wild West when isolated corporate failures drag down the entire ecosystem.
- On the weekly chart, prices are currently testing a major ascending support trend line that could validate a broader five-wave bearish scenario if broken.
- For the bearish Elliott wave scenario to fully activate, the market must break below the previous major low point according to Dow theory.
- Fibonacci extension levels suggest that a wave five target could potentially rest near support levels such as 8,805 or lower if current trends persist.
- Daily technical indicators show prices testing cloud boundaries and moving averages, with potential risk of a retest and rejection at the broken trend line.
- External macroeconomic factors, such as the US midterm elections and nervous broader financial markets, add further volatility and unpredictability to crypto prices.
In This Video
- 00:00Introduction to Post-Crash Market Review
The speaker introduces the market review following a massive crypto sell-off tied to FTX and Binance.
- 01:00Market Maturity and Speculation
Discussion on why crypto remains an immature, highly speculative market where single events crash the entire sector.
- 02:59Weekly Chart and Elliott Wave Analysis
Analysis of the weekly crypto chart, ascending trend line support, and the potential five-wave bearish scenario.
- 05:06Daily Chart and Technical Indicators
Examining daily charts, Ichimoku cloud levels, moving averages, and recent price action in the red.
- 06:58Breakout Scenarios and Resistance Tests
Evaluating potential pullback scenarios, trend line resistance tests, and what a confirmed breakdown means.
Questions & Answers
What caused the massive crypto crash?
The sell-off was triggered by issues surrounding FTX and Binance, causing a severe market-wide drop.
How does the speaker view the maturity of the crypto market?
The speaker considers crypto an immature, highly speculative market akin to the Wild West, noting that problems with a single entity drag down the entire sector.
What is required to validate the bearish wave scenario on the weekly chart?
To validate the bearish scenario, the price must break the ascending support trend line and make a lower low below the previous point, following Dow theory.
What are the potential Fibonacci extension targets mentioned?
Based on Fibonacci extensions, a wave five target could approach 8,805 or potentially lower levels like 4,78 depending on further market movement.
What macroeconomic event could create additional market volatility?
US midterm elections are happening today, with results expected to impact the dollar and subsequently influence crypto markets.
Key Terms
- Fibonacci extension — A technical analysis tool used to help predict potential price targets and correction levels during a trend.
- Dow theory — A financial framework stating that a market is in a downward trend only if it makes successive lower lows and lower highs.