# AMD made me $2,000,000. This stock is next‼️

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2cOEptle44

[00:00] I hope you're ready to get some flapjacks flipped out there.
[00:03] We have some major moves incoming in countless stocks out there.
[00:07] At the beginning of this video here today, what I want to go ahead and do is I want to share my entire full uh possible buys watch list.
[00:15] And what I want to share in this video is which stocks are kind of like the leaders in terms of which ones have my attention, which ones do I want to buy the most, which ones do I think have the most upside ahead over this next bit of time.
[00:26] So, want to share that at the beginning of this video.
[00:27] We'll get into all that.
[00:29] Looking forward to sharing my opinions, perspectives on that.
[00:31] Also, uh today, look at this.
[00:35] I signed up 33 six figure trophies and 15 seven figure trophies.
[00:40] A lot of people having success in the market.
[00:41] This is all in my private group, right?
[00:43] And I wanted to spend a moment talking about when you see retail investors doing well for themselves, if that means you're at a market top, those sorts of things.
[00:50] So, I thought it'd be an important subject to speak about, especially since I've been on social media now for a decade now at this point in time.
[00:56] Right.
[00:58] Once we get done going through that, I want to get into Edarn Denny.
[00:59] Ed Yarn Denny talking about interest rate hikes in July and what
[01:01] interest rate hikes in July and what that would mean for the market.
[01:03] Wow, is that would mean for the market.
[01:05] Wow, is that a big prediction and then we'll listen to a bunch of Wall Streeters
[01:06] share their opinions on managing your portfolio and all those good things.
[01:08] And I'll kind of share my opinions and perspectives based upon that.
[01:11] Okay, I appreciate you guys for joining me in this video here today.
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[01:19] We're going to get in a lot of subjects and share my buys, all that good stuff.
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[01:30] Also have a huge deal coming for you guys on my gold tier for my Patreon.
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[02:25] Okay.
[02:25] All righty, ladies and gentlemen.
[02:26] Let's talk some stocks that I'm looking to buy in what prices, what upside, those sorts of things.
[02:31] Okay.
[02:31] Listen, one stock I have on there is TTD.
[02:34] This one actually has me very intrigued now at this point in time.
[02:37] Now, TTD, their revenue growth is not going up nearly as rapidly in regards to TTD at this point in time.
[02:45] Okay, this is a company called Tradeesk.
[02:47] I've never owned the stock.
[02:47] It's always had my attention.
[02:49] It was a fast growing company but the growth rates are definitely plummeting for this one.
[02:54] And so you look at like trailing 12 month revenue is at 15.5%.
[02:56] Current year now expect to be 12%.
[02:58] Before they had been growing like 20 plus percent, right?
[03:00] But
[03:03] growing like 20 plus percent, right?
[03:05] But the PES have come down enough that it actually has me rather intrigued.
[03:08] So this one definitely has my attention.
[03:09] It's definitely a possible buy.
[03:12] It's not one I'm ready to pull the trig on right now, but you know, if this one keeps moving down, especially if it goes under 20, I might have to start a position here.
[03:16] now, but you know, if this one keeps moving down, especially if it goes under 20, I might have to start a position here.
[03:17] Estee Lauder.
[03:19] I love this one.
[03:22] Oh, do I love this one.
[03:24] I love companies that I just don't have to worry about being disrupted over the next, you know, 10, 15, 20 years.
[03:25] Estee Lauder is one of those companies.
[03:28] The brands they own are still going to be just as successful.
[03:30] From Estee Lauder to La Mer and million other brands.
[03:33] Well, not a million other brands, but a lot of other very famous, very successful brands in cosmetics, beauty that they own.
[03:34] They make a lot of money.
[03:37] They make a lot of profit.
[03:38] Their business is headed back on the right track.
[03:40] Now, at this point in time, they've really, you know, the turnaround has come now at this point in time for this company.
[03:42] And so, the profitability should likely skyrocket for this company over this next bit of time.
[03:45] If we go to the charts feature here on thousandxtocks.com, type in Eel, you'll begin to see what
[04:05] type in Eel, you'll begin to see what I'm talking about in regards to Eel.
[04:07] So, I'm talking about in regards to Eel.
[04:10] So, this company obviously was in a rough place, right?
[04:12] Like the revenues have been going down, going down, and now we have flipped this script right around here.
[04:17] we start flipping to positive revenue growth and this is where we're expected to go and I think things are just going to get better and better from here.
[04:23] Same exact thing in regards to earnings per share.
[04:25] We put this on a quarterly basis.
[04:27] You really get to understand what's about to happen here for the company in regards to EPS.
[04:30] So EPS is going to improve dramatically.
[04:33] Look at the free cash flow.
[04:35] Obviously, we already troughed that now at this point in time.
[04:37] Everything across the board is already troughed and everything's headed back in the right direction.
[04:41] It should just get better for Estee Lauder.
[04:43] So I love Esteee Lauder under 100.
[04:45] The further it is under 100, the more it's to buy.
[04:47] Hood has my attention.
[04:49] The one thing I'm waiting on with Hood is I want to buy Hood with more damage out there in the market.
[04:58] That's my one thing for Hood.
[05:01] I want to pick up Hood when you know the the issue we have out there is S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell
[05:07] There is S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell 2000.
[05:09] They're not far off of all-time highs, right?
[05:11] You really want to pick up a stock like Hood when the market's been damaged.
[05:16] That's usually the time to pick it up.
[05:18] So, I'm keeping an eye on it.
[05:18] I'm already intrigued, but if this market could get some damage, then we're really talking about something interesting in regards to Hood here.
[05:26] Okay, Elf on a Shelf.
[05:26] Anything under $100 is a steel deal for ELF.
[05:30] The further it is under 100, the more it's a steel deal for this particular company.
[05:34] Listen, it's a buy before earnings.
[05:36] It's 52 bucks.
[05:36] It's a buy before earnings come out.
[05:37] It's going to be a buy after earnings come out.
[05:39] It doesn't matter what happens with the short-term stock price move.
[05:42] It go down to 45.
[05:42] It can go up to 65.
[05:47] It doesn't matter.
[05:47] It's still a buy after earnings.
[05:49] Okay?
[05:49] So, keep that in mind.
[05:49] Buy before earnings.
[05:51] It's a buy after earnings regardless of what the short-term stock price does.
[05:54] It's irrelevant.
[05:54] The stock, in my opinion, is going back to 200.
[05:56] Let me see if I have updated um projections for if I can get my projections.
[06:03] My computer's kind of messed up.
[06:03] Let me see if I got
[06:07] if I got elf l shelf elfie. There we go. Load.
[06:12] elf l shelf elfie. There we go. Load. Let me see if I've updated here. Yes.
[06:16] Let me see if I've updated here. Yes. Look at this, ladies and gentlemen. Look
[06:18] Look at this, ladies and gentlemen. Look at my base case for ELF. We're talking
[06:21] at my base case for ELF. We're talking about a 40% plus Kaggar. Listen, ELF's a
[06:24] buy today. It was a buy yesterday. It's a buy tomorrow. It's a buy next week.
[06:26] a buy tomorrow. It's a buy next week. It's a buy next month. It's a buy. It's
[06:27] It's a buy next month. It's a buy. It's a steel deal right now, right?
[06:29] a steel deal right now, right? steel deal. SoFi, I love SoFi stock.
[06:33] steel deal. SoFi, I love SoFi stock. This is another phenomenal one. Um, I
[06:36] This is another phenomenal one. Um, I mean, this is a company that is clicking
[06:39] mean, this is a company that is clicking on all cylinders. Anthony's growing the
[06:42] on all cylinders. Anthony's growing the company great. They just got to make it
[06:44] company great. They just got to make it through future recessions and the world
[06:45] through future recessions and the world is theirs. They're on their way to
[06:47] is theirs. They're on their way to becoming a financial giant. So, anything
[06:48] becoming a financial giant. So, anything under 20 I really, really like for SoFi.
[06:51] under 20 I really, really like for SoFi. If it goes under 15, steal deal in
[06:53] If it goes under 15, steal deal in regards to SoFi. Jeez. Cake Factory.
[06:56] regards to SoFi. Jeez. Cake Factory. Listen, in regards to cake, that might
[06:59] Listen, in regards to cake, that might be one you're like, "Dang, man. You
[07:03] be one you're like, "Dang, man. You know, you're up quite a bit from, you
[07:04] know, you're up quite a bit from, you know, when I started buying cake, it was
[07:05] know, when I started buying cake, it was like a $30ish dollar stock, and I'm
[07:09] like a $30ish dollar stock, and I'm still interested in buying it at 58.
[07:11] still interested in buying it at 58.
[07:13] The bottom line is like cake's still a steel deal.
[07:15] And so, you know, I understand like it's gone up a lot over the past few years since I started buying it, but it's still a steel deal.
[07:20] Ford P14 and they got two growth engines for this company for the next, you know, 10 plus years.
[07:27] I like companies that I can buy into.
[07:29] I know they're going to make profits regardless of the economic cycle and I know can grow regardless of what's going on out there, right?
[07:36] And that's Cheesecake Factory.
[07:39] Fubu is really intriguing here now at this point in time.
[07:43] Everything has gotten dramatically better for this company, but the stock price, everything fundamental has gotten so much better over the past few years, and the stock price has done nothing but get worse, right?
[07:53] So, that's a classic example of the stock price not reflecting the fundamentals of the company.
[07:56] I believe that will change over time.
[07:59] Service Now, I love this stock.
[08:00] I've spoken a lot about Service Now recently and you know, this is one I think Wall Street has it wrong.
[08:06] I think they have it wrong in a lot of these SAS stocks.
[08:07] I'll put Service Now in that category.
[08:09] I'll put
[08:10] Service Now in that category.
[08:10] I'll put Salesforce in that category as well.
[08:12] Salesforce in that category as well.
[08:12] I do believe they have it wrong in regards to that stock.
[08:15] Honest, I think exit this year at $5 plus regardless of market conditions.
[08:17] That's my personal opinion on that.
[08:19] I think there's going to get more clarity on the the earnings and people are going to get really excited because they had to make a lot of tough steps this year.
[08:20] Well, really at the end of last year for this year for their numbers for get out of some bad businesses they were in focusing on boosting the margin profile and then putting marketing dollars also like manpower dollars you know behind the workforce really behind the best businesses moving forward and I think it's going to make us stronger honest than we ever seen.
[08:22] I have to think the stock exits here at $5 plus meta.
[08:24] This one, you know, obviously once once Zuckerberg either chills on the crazy spend or people can get a better grasp of why he's spending such a ridiculous amount of money, when one of those two scenarios happen, the stock's ready to blast to $1,000 plus, but until that, it's going to remain dormant, right?
[08:25] So, just, you know, with a stock like Meta, you buy it, you throw it in the filing
[09:11] you buy it, you throw it in the filing cabinet, and you buy it more and more.
[09:13] cabinet, and you buy it more and more and more, right?
[09:14] and more, right? and you throw it in the filing cabinet and eventually one of two
[09:17] filing cabinet and eventually one of two scenarios is going to happen.
[09:19] scenarios is going to happen.
[09:22] the one of these two scenarios.
[09:22] Either people are going to understand
[09:24] Either people are going to understand why Zuckerberg spending such a
[09:25] ridiculous amount, which we don't yet.
[09:27] I I don't understand why we need to spend
[09:28] this much.
[09:28] So, none of us understand
[09:30] that as of right now, right?
[09:33] that as of right now, right?
[09:33] Or like there's going to be a situation
[09:35] like there's going to be a situation where he cuts back on spending big time,
[09:37] where he cuts back on spending big time, right?
[09:39] right? One of those two scenarios will
[09:39] play out long term.
[09:42] Um, in the next three months, 6 months, no, he can keep
[09:44] three months, 6 months, no, he can keep spending like a drunken sailor and
[09:46] spending like a drunken sailor and people might not understand.
[09:48] people might not understand.
[09:48] No one be like, why do we need to spend this much,
[09:49] like, why do we need to spend this much, Zuck?
[09:52] But, um, long term like it's going to be understood, right?
[09:55] So, that's meta.
[09:55] That one has me really intrigued.
[09:57] PayPal still is a is a great value right
[09:59] now.
[09:59] You know, this is a classic example
[10:01] of a great value stock when it comes to
[10:03] PayPal.
[10:03] you know 4P8 you know there's
[10:06] not much damage there that can happen
[10:08] really to PayPal now at this point in
[10:10] time right American Express just a top
[10:13] time right American Express just a top tier company in AXP this is just an easy.
[10:17] tier company in AXP this is just an easy value stock to pick up you know I always.
[10:19] value stock to pick up you know I always preach GBD right growth value dividends.
[10:21] preach GBD right growth value dividends it's also a dividend payer if I recall.
[10:23] it's also a dividend payer if I recall yes it is a dividend payer indeed um let.
[10:26] yes it is a dividend payer indeed um let me see if I have a projections for.
[10:29] me see if I have a projections for American Express I believe I do take a.
[10:33] American Express I believe I do take a peek here at where's Amex American.
[10:37] peek here at where's Amex American Express.
[10:40] Express. There it is. AXP load data.
[10:42] Here it is. My projections are modest for AX. Oh my.
[10:45] gosh, are they modest. Right.
[10:48] And look it, we're talking Oh my gosh.
[10:51] American Express might be one of the.
[10:52] easiest buys in the stock market.
[10:55] Look at my projections. My base case has.
[10:57] 8% revenue growth on average, 27 through.
[11:00] 2030, and 12% net income growth. That's.
[11:02] nothing crazy.
[11:03] And for a business model as stable as.
[11:05] this company, I mean, you know, you.
[11:06] should easily be able to command deep.
[11:08] into the 20s for a P ratio.
[11:13] Wow. I like American Express. Oh, do I.
[11:16] Wow.
[11:16] I like American Express.
[11:16] Oh, do I like American Express.
[11:16] Uh, Celsius.
[11:20] like American Express.
[11:20] Uh, Celsius.
[11:20] You want to see a crazy projections?
[11:23] Let me show you my Celsius.
[11:25] Get ready to have your flapjacks flipped here.
[11:25] Okay.
[11:27] Look at this.
[11:27] Look at this.
[11:32] My base case for Celsius, an energy drink company,
[11:37] I only have them doing 10% revenue growth a year.
[11:39] Now, with Celsius, Alani, if they can get Rockstar back reinvigorated now that they acquired that from Pepsi, the international expansion, 10% should be very doable.
[11:48] Very doable.
[11:48] This is like, oh, that's crazy.
[11:50] This should be easy peasy lemon squeezy.
[11:53] 10% revenue growth on average for my base case.
[11:55] 20% net income growth only get net margins to 17% come 2030 right and at a 29 to 34p which would be very fair of a company growing top line 10% bottom line 20% right we're talking about 35 to 40% Kaggar Celsius is a buy and body works has me pretty intrigued
[12:18] and body works has me pretty intrigued now at this point in time right um.
[12:20] Now at this point in time right um there's a lot of negativity around the consumer so I feel like anything consumer related is doing bad, right?
[12:24] In terms of the stock price, 6 Ford P. I'm intrigued.
[12:31] I am intrigued. Bath & Body Works. Nike. So, Nike 4242.
[12:34] Steel Deal. Steel Deal. That's another one I put in the same category as I put in Esteee Lauder.
[12:41] I don't have to stress about those companies long term.
[12:43] Same thing with ELF.
[12:45] I don't have to stress about those companies long term.
[12:46] They're going to be more relevant 10 years from now than they're relevant today.
[12:47] CRM, I believe they have this one wrong.
[12:49] The nice thing about CRM versus let's let's go to like the compare feature here.
[12:51] I'll show you what I mean in regards to Service Now versus Salesforce.
[12:54] So, in regards to Salesforce, the nice thing versus, you know, if you're trying to figure out Salesforce versus Service Now, the nice thing for Salesforce is much lower P ratios, trailing 12 month P, forward P, two to your forward P.
[12:55] Right now, you're
[13:19] Two to your forward P.
[13:19] Right now, you're also getting lower growth rates as well.
[13:20] Also getting lower growth rates as well.
[13:21] So, that's something to take into account there, right?
[13:26] But, you know, you want a lower valuation one.
[13:28] There's there's less fear in regards to getting hurt in a stock like Salesforce, right?
[13:32] When you're talking about a forward P of 13 for a SAS company that's growing like that, right?
[13:38] Uh, next one up here, Palunteer 135.
[13:41] Palanteer has me intrigued, man.
[13:44] Do I have updated projections on Palunteer?
[13:47] Let's take a peek.
[13:50] I might, but it's how long's it been since I wanted to buy Palanteer stock?
[13:54] It's been years.
[13:56] Years in terms of an active buyer, right?
[14:00] And my base case has 35% revenue growth on average, net income growth 40% on average, 7090 PE because that's such fast growth rates, right?
[14:09] And we're talking about if that scenario plays out, 30% plus Kagar here.
[14:13] Now, you can say, okay, what if the market really puts crap valuations on?
[14:15] Let's call it 30 to 40, which would be ridiculous for
[14:20] 30 to 40, which would be ridiculous for a company growing bottom line 40% a year.
[14:22] a company growing bottom line 40% a year.
[14:24] To put a 30 to 40 is just ridiculous, but still you get a Kaggar that's somewhere roughly in where the market's probably going to perform at for coming years, right?
[14:28] but still you get a Kaggar that's somewhere roughly in where the market's probably going to perform at for coming years, right?
[14:31] market's probably going to perform at for coming years, right?
[14:32] So, but I actually like Palanteer here and like I said, that's the first time I can say that in years.
[14:35] but I actually like Palanteer here and like I said, that's the first time I can say that in years.
[14:37] Hims has me really intrigued now at this point in time.
[14:38] that in years. Hims has me really intrigued now at this point in time.
[14:40] This is another one with I'm flirting with buying him at this point in time.
[14:42] I do worry about, you know, if they have to go head on with Amazon, that's always a tough tough one to go head on with, right?
[14:44] But, um, him is looks interesting.
[14:47] I think they're going to get a lot bigger over future years. So,
[14:49] So, Hims has me very intrigued now at this point in time. Very intrigued.
[14:51] Let's pull up the charts feature for Hims.
[14:54] their short-term growth might be a little impacted, right?
[14:56] No doubt. But over the long term, this should be a strong growth company, right?
[14:58] And so,
[15:22] strong growth company, right?
[15:22] And so, HIMS has me intrigued.
[15:25] Hims has me intrigued.
[15:25] Okay.
[15:29] And then we got RH down here at 122.
[15:33] when it comes to RH.
[15:33] I mean, you know, obviously housing's in the dumpers, been in the dumpers, but
[15:36] rich people have been doing better than ever, but you can say that in any market, right?
[15:39] So, here's another business that has already trough now at this point in time.
[15:43] It looks to be headed back in the right direction.
[15:44] So, that's good for RH uh 4 P24 on this one to your 4 P12.
[15:47] Pretty darn low.
[15:51] But obviously, a stock like RH, $2 billion market cap.
[15:53] Furniture, you know, obviously super high in furniture.
[15:55] I'm recording this on an RH desk, by the way.
[15:57] Um, I mean, you know, you're never going to command super high P's for this stock, so just something to kind of keep in mind there.
[15:59] But definitely is up there.
[16:01] And then Whirly Whirlpool is actually interesting at 40 bucks.
[16:04] It's another one that, you know, this one's more mass market for for, you know, housing, but
[16:23] housing, but has me intrigued.
[16:23] 40 bucks.
[16:23] I mean,
[16:24] has me intrigued.
[16:24] 40 bucks.
[16:24] I mean, we're not that far off of great
[16:26] we're not that far off of great financial crisis type pricing, right?
[16:29] financial crisis type pricing, right?
[16:29] So, you know, the stocks that
[16:32] So, you know, the stocks that I'm most interested in buying out of
[16:35] I'm most interested in buying out of this bunch are ELF,
[16:38] this bunch are ELF, Celsius,
[16:40] Celsius, Sofi,
[16:43] Sofi, Estee Lauder, right?
[16:46] Estee Lauder, right?
[16:46] Nike.
[16:46] I mean, Nike, I think, is a steel
[16:48] deal here, but I've added so many Nike
[16:50] shares that I'm almost pretty much done
[16:53] buying Nike now at this point in time.
[16:55] buying Nike now at this point in time.
[16:55] So, do keep that in mind.
[16:57] So, do keep that in mind.
[16:57] After that, I already have pretty good
[16:59] sized position Honest, but I could add
[17:01] some more Honest shares.
[17:01] Um, Service
[17:03] Now, Salesforce, I believe those are
[17:05] still great long-term values out there.
[17:09] still great long-term values out there.
[17:09] And so, and then stocks like TTD, Hood,
[17:13] um, RH,
[17:15] HIMS, those sorts of stocks, I'm like
[17:18] strongly considering starting a position
[17:20] in some of them, right?
[17:23] It's just about like, you know, you there's only so much
[17:24] like, you know, you there's only so much money to go around.
[17:25] So, it's like if money doesn't go there, should I went there?
[17:29] And even Meta looks intriguing at 600, right?
[17:32] But that one's a harder one to buy just because, you know, I have shares that I bought at 88.94.
[17:38] I have shares that I bought under 100.
[17:40] I have shares that I bought in the 120.
[17:42] So, it's always hard to pay 600 plus for something that in the past you paid 100, but it's it's honestly irrelevant.
[17:49] And then Cheesecake Factory is always a buy in regards to that one.
[17:51] Okay.
[17:53] So, Private Group, Big Day, um obviously a ton of people hitting six figures, seven figures in there.
[17:56] Is this mean a top in the market?
[17:58] Right.
[18:00] when you see that sort of level of success from retail investors.
[18:04] Here's my view on this as somebody that's been a retail investor now for how many years?
[18:08] Um 17 18 years and been on YouTube for a decade now at this point in time.
[18:12] Here's my view on this.
[18:15] Okay.
[18:18] In any sort of market, you have retail investors that are doing bad, retail investors that are doing good, right?
[18:21] It depends on how you're positioned in the market.
[18:23] I haven't seen it yet where you
[18:26] market.
[18:28] I haven't seen it yet where you know everybody's doing amazing all at know everybody's doing amazing all at the same time or everybody you know if I
[18:30] the same time or everybody you know if I mean look at some of those stocks right
[18:32] mean look at some of those stocks right if you are in if you're imagine your
[18:35] if you are in if you're imagine your portfolios the trade desk okay you're
[18:37] portfolios the trade desk okay you're down 44% roughly this year right and
[18:40] down 44% roughly this year right and you're positioned in hood which is down
[18:42] you're positioned in hood which is down 35% this year and you're in SoFi which
[18:45] 35% this year and you're in SoFi which is down 45% this year right and you're
[18:48] is down 45% this year right and you're positioned in service now which is down
[18:50] positioned in service now which is down 30% this year and you're positioned in
[18:52] 30% this year and you're positioned in Palanteer here which is down 19% and
[18:54] Palanteer here which is down 19% and your position in HIMS which is down 33%.
[18:57] your position in HIMS which is down 33%.
[18:59] Dude, this is not boom times for you.
[19:01] You're not hitting new milestones, right?
[19:06] right? However, if you're in stocks like I don't know, let's say a stock like oh
[19:10] I don't know, let's say a stock like oh AMD,
[19:11] AMD, oh things are amazing for you, right?
[19:15] oh things are amazing for you, right?
[19:16] You probably just hit the six figure club.
[19:18] You probably just hit the seven figure club if you're in a stock like
[19:20] figure club if you're in a stock like Micron.
[19:23] Micron. Hm. best stock market ever.
[19:24] You're probably hitting new milestone, new comma after new comma. So, when I
[19:27] New comma after new comma.
[19:27] So, when I look out there and I see success, I see look out there and I see success, I see a lot of people that aren't having a lot of people that aren't having success in the market as well.
[19:32] I see a lot of people that aren't positioned in the right stocks that haven't benefited,
[19:35] right?
[19:35] Like, you know, think everybody's made $2 million off AMD in the last like year or so.
[19:43] No, no.
[19:43] A lot of people are positioned in stocks that haven't done well.
[19:48] So, you know, it's very easy to look at people that are in Micron, in SanDisk, in AMD, these sorts of stocks, and be like, "Oh, man, stock market's a bubble.
[19:56] Like, everybody's so rich."
[20:00] No.
[20:00] No.
[20:00] That's just not the reality.
[20:01] If you're positioned in those companies, you're doing amazing, right?
[20:05] And so in the next cycle, stocks like AMD, stocks like Micron, some of these other stocks that are the hot ones right now, right, that might continue to be the hot ones in the short term, they might end up turning cold.
[20:16] And then stocks like all of a sudden ELF and Celsius and maybe the Trade Desk and maybe some of these other stocks, Sofi and Palanteer, maybe they'll start to have a ripper rally and a lot of the SAS stocks come back and then the other stocks go to sleep.
[20:28] then the other stocks go to sleep. And then if you're positioned in those
[20:29] then if you're positioned in those stocks, you feel better than ever. But
[20:31] stocks, you feel better than ever. But then if you're in AMD and Micron and
[20:32] then if you're in AMD and Micron and those sorts of companies at that
[20:34] those sorts of companies at that particular time, then you're going to be
[20:35] particular time, then you're going to be like in a position where you're like,
[20:37] like in a position where you're like, "Ah, can we make some money over here?"
[20:39] "Ah, can we make some money over here?" So that's my view on this whole game.
[20:42] So that's my view on this whole game. Like don't try to, you know, cuz trust
[20:44] Like don't try to, you know, cuz trust me, not everybody's at all-time highs.
[20:46] me, not everybody's at all-time highs. Not everybody's hitting new milestones
[20:47] Not everybody's hitting new milestones right now. Certain people are if you're
[20:49] right now. Certain people are if you're positioning the right companies and
[20:50] positioning the right companies and those are big positions for you. But
[20:52] those are big positions for you. But this I'm I'm, you know, we looked at it
[20:54] this I'm I'm, you know, we looked at it recently. It was like over 70% of the
[20:56] recently. It was like over 70% of the Russell 3000 is down double digit
[20:58] Russell 3000 is down double digit percentage from their highs. Double
[21:01] percentage from their highs. Double digit percentage from their highs. 70%.
[21:05] digit percentage from their highs. 70%. So, we're in a kind of a freakish market
[21:07] So, we're in a kind of a freakish market right now where some are doing amazing
[21:09] right now where some are doing amazing and it's like boom times. You're making
[21:11] and it's like boom times. You're making more money than you know what to do with
[21:12] more money than you know what to do with and a lot of other people are not.
[21:15] and a lot of other people are not. Some people say it's very similar to the
[21:16] Some people say it's very similar to the economy out there, right? Okay, let's
[21:18] economy out there, right? Okay, let's react to some Wall Street
[21:19] react to some Wall Street >> July. Let's get more now from the man
[21:21] >> July. Let's get more now from the man himself. He's the president of Yard
[21:23] himself. He's the president of Yard Jenny Research and he's with us live.
[21:24] Jenny Research and he's with us live. Welcome. It's good to talk to you.
[21:25] Welcome. It's good to talk to you. >> Sure. Thank you.
[21:27] >> Sure. Thank you. >> So, you turned some heads today because
[21:28] >> So, you turned some heads today because you're such a bull in this market and
[21:32] you're such a bull in this market and you stay with your target of 8250
[21:36] you stay with your target of 8250 >> for the end of the year, but you think
[21:37] >> for the end of the year, but you think the Fed could actually hold your horses
[21:39] the Fed could actually hold your horses for one flipping flapjacking moment.
[21:42] for one flipping flapjacking moment. 8250.
[21:43] 8250. What a call. The S&P 500 right now, I
[21:46] What a call. The S&P 500 right now, I believe, is 7,400 roughly somewhere in
[21:48] believe, is 7,400 roughly somewhere in there. They're talking about 8250.
[21:50] there. They're talking about 8250. That's a call. Oh my god.
[21:52] That's a call. Oh my god. >> Hike rates in July.
[21:54] >> Hike rates in July. >> Well, I think the bond market is calling
[21:57] >> Well, I think the bond market is calling for that. Uh I think the reason bond
[21:58] for that. Uh I think the reason bond yields have gone up is because the
[22:00] yields have gone up is because the perception is that the Fed is behind the
[22:02] perception is that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation. And the Fed has to
[22:06] curve on inflation. And the Fed has to clearly show that uh they're dropping
[22:08] clearly show that uh they're dropping their easing bias, which is what they
[22:10] their easing bias, which is what they had in their April meeting, and move not
[22:14] had in their April meeting, and move not to a neutral bias, but move to a
[22:16] to a neutral bias, but move to a tightening bias at the June meeting
[22:19] tightening bias at the June meeting coming up in a a few few weeks and then
[22:22] coming up in a a few few weeks and then after that I think they have to follow
[22:24] after that I think they have to follow up and actually show that they're
[22:26] up and actually show that they're willing to raise rates and do it by 25
[22:28] willing to raise rates and do it by 25 basis points. The the 2-year is now
[22:31] basis points. The the 2-year is now indicating that the federal funds rate
[22:34] indicating that the federal funds rate is too low. The federal funds rate range
[22:37] is too low. The federal funds rate range is 3 12 to 3.75%.
[22:40] is 3 12 to 3.75%. Two years at 4.1% and it's a pretty good
[22:43] Two years at 4.1% and it's a pretty good leading indicator of what the Fed should
[22:45] leading indicator of what the Fed should do and very often it gets it right. Ah,
[22:48] do and very often it gets it right. Ah, so you're one of those in the Fed
[22:50] so you're one of those in the Fed follows the market camp, it sounds like.
[22:53] follows the market camp, it sounds like. >> Well, I I think the Fed doesn't really
[22:55] >> Well, I I think the Fed doesn't really want to get behind the market, uh, being
[22:57] want to get behind the market, uh, being behind the market as being very much
[22:59] behind the market as being very much behind the curve because the market is
[23:02] behind the curve because the market is certainly looking at the CPI and PPI
[23:05] certainly looking at the CPI and PPI that just came out. And there's a lot of
[23:07] that just came out. And there's a lot of concern that we're back into an
[23:09] concern that we're back into an inflation mode comparable to what 2122.
[23:14] inflation mode comparable to what 2122. I don't think it's anything like that. I
[23:15] I don't think it's anything like that. I don't think we're going to have another
[23:16] don't think we're going to have another bare market the way we did in in 2022. I
[23:20] bare market the way we did in in 2022. I think the stock market can handle a rate
[23:23] think the stock market can handle a rate rise in the in the bond market. Well,
[23:25] rise in the in the bond market. Well, right now it's at 4.6%.
[23:28] right now it's at 4.6%. It's sort of at a critical level. If it
[23:30] It's sort of at a critical level. If it goes higher than that, then I think the
[23:32] goes higher than that, then I think the the next stop is going to be somewhere
[23:34] the next stop is going to be somewhere around 4 and 3/4%. I don't think we're
[23:36] around 4 and 3/4%. I don't think we're going to go to 5% and I don't think
[23:38] going to go to 5% and I don't think these are the kind of rates that are
[23:40] these are the kind of rates that are going to really create a problem for the
[23:42] going to really create a problem for the economy to grow and for earnings to
[23:43] economy to grow and for earnings to grow. So I see earnings continue to do
[23:45] grow. So I see earnings continue to do well. I think that uh we are going to
[23:47] well. I think that uh we are going to see some uh tightening in credit
[23:50] see some uh tightening in credit conditions here because of the inflation
[23:52] conditions here because of the inflation issue and uh I don't think that's going
[23:54] issue and uh I don't think that's going to create a real big problem for the
[23:56] to create a real big problem for the valuation multiple either. Uh it's uh
[23:59] valuation multiple either. Uh it's uh it's not a perfect correlation between
[24:00] it's not a perfect correlation between bond yields and the valuation multiple
[24:03] bond yields and the valuation multiple and I think the market's still very much
[24:05] and I think the market's still very much focused on the uh very futuristic
[24:08] focused on the uh very futuristic developments that are happening now in
[24:11] developments that are happening now in the whole AI field. You know, uh, Ed,
[24:15] the whole AI field. You know, uh, Ed, I'm just going to read you. Uh, we're
[24:17] I'm just going to read you. Uh, we're not naive to the moves in the market as
[24:19] not naive to the moves in the market as we were having this conversation. Guys,
[24:20] we were having this conversation. Guys, let's put up the, uh, the S&P if we
[24:22] let's put up the, uh, the S&P if we could, uh, please, because, that's
[24:24] could, uh, please, because, that's that's what we need to see. Can we see
[24:25] that's what we need to see. Can we see that, please? The, uh, intraday. There
[24:27] that, please? The, uh, intraday. There it is. Um this is on a truth social post
[24:31] it is. Um this is on a truth social post by the president uh who says I've been
[24:34] by the president uh who says I've been asked by the Amir of Qatar uh the crown
[24:36] asked by the Amir of Qatar uh the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the president
[24:39] prince of Saudi Arabia and the president of the UAE
[24:41] of the UAE uh to hold off on our planned military
[24:43] uh to hold off on our planned military attack of the Islam Islamic Republic of
[24:45] attack of the Islam Islamic Republic of Iran which the president says was
[24:48] Iran which the president says was scheduled for tomorrow in that serious
[24:51] scheduled for tomorrow in that serious negotiations are now taking place. Um,
[24:54] negotiations are now taking place. Um, so we'll continue to follow that. But
[24:57] so we'll continue to follow that. But this this just shows you uh how
[25:00] this this just shows you uh how sensitive the the market is to this
[25:02] sensitive the the market is to this issue, right? If you're going to have
[25:04] issue, right? If you're going to have yields move up and oil move up and
[25:07] yields move up and oil move up and attacks move forward, this market's
[25:10] attacks move forward, this market's probably not going to take that news all
[25:12] probably not going to take that news all that well, especially at a time where
[25:14] that well, especially at a time where some would suggest the stock market was
[25:17] some would suggest the stock market was ripe for some degree of pullback anyway.
[25:20] ripe for some degree of pullback anyway. You just needed the point of to which it
[25:22] You just needed the point of to which it was going to initiate that, right?
[25:24] was going to initiate that, right? >> Yeah.
[25:25] >> Yeah. >> Look, I I don't really have a problem
[25:26] >> Look, I I don't really have a problem with the notion that the market takes a
[25:28] with the notion that the market takes a pause here. I I I think it's a good
[25:31] pause here. I I I think it's a good thing. I wouldn't want to see the market
[25:32] thing. I wouldn't want to see the market continuing to move straight up led by uh
[25:36] continuing to move straight up led by uh a narrow group of stocks led by the
[25:38] a narrow group of stocks led by the Magnificent 7 and led by the the
[25:40] Magnificent 7 and led by the the semiconductors. I like what I'm seeing
[25:42] semiconductors. I like what I'm seeing today. I like that some money is coming
[25:45] today. I like that some money is coming out of some areas of tech that have done
[25:46] out of some areas of tech that have done very well and going into software. I
[25:49] very well and going into software. I think that's that's that's a that's a
[25:51] think that's that's that's a that's a good development, a sign that of a kind
[25:53] good development, a sign that of a kind of a healthy broadening out in the
[25:55] of a healthy broadening out in the market and we have seen the S&P 500 uh
[25:59] market and we have seen the S&P 500 uh index outperform the U S&P market weight
[26:04] index outperform the U S&P market weight index uh and I I think uh some some
[26:07] index uh and I I think uh some some broadening in this market is appropriate
[26:09] broadening in this market is appropriate especially since uh the underlying
[26:11] especially since uh the underlying earnings picture really is broadening.
[26:13] earnings picture really is broadening. it's more and more companies uh
[26:15] it's more and more companies uh according to analysts are looking better
[26:17] according to analysts are looking better and better on the on the earnings front.
[26:20] and better on the on the earnings front. So, I don't think we're going to have a
[26:21] So, I don't think we're going to have a pullback uh anywhere near as severe as
[26:24] pullback uh anywhere near as severe as what we had in March. Uh that that
[26:26] what we had in March. Uh that that obviously was when we had the shooting
[26:28] obviously was when we had the shooting war in in the Middle East. It certainly
[26:31] war in in the Middle East. It certainly looks to me uh as though the president
[26:33] looks to me uh as though the president does not want to uh start another uh
[26:37] does not want to uh start another uh round round of shooting and we may just
[26:39] round round of shooting and we may just have a status quo where the Iranian
[26:41] have a status quo where the Iranian ports are blockaded and the street of
[26:43] ports are blockaded and the street of Armus is blockaded. Meanwhile, big
[26:46] Armus is blockaded. Meanwhile, big surprise is that the price of oil is
[26:48] surprise is that the price of oil is actually stayed pretty reasonable at 100
[26:50] actually stayed pretty reasonable at 100 bucks. I know that sounds odd to say,
[26:52] bucks. I know that sounds odd to say, but it's not 125 15200. And I think some
[26:56] but it's not 125 15200. And I think some of that is because fortunately the
[26:58] of that is because fortunately the Chinese economy is looking pretty weak.
[27:00] Chinese economy is looking pretty weak. Their their retail sales report that
[27:02] Their their retail sales report that came out uh ju just recently uh was very
[27:05] came out uh ju just recently uh was very very weak.
[27:07] very weak. So,
[27:08] So, um, if you want to know where the
[27:11] um, if you want to know where the sometimes I get this question like
[27:13] sometimes I get this question like what's the scary
[27:15] what's the scary uh what's the scary number that if
[27:22] the if treasuries went so high I'm
[27:26] the if treasuries went so high I'm trying to figure out oh I got to get rid
[27:27] trying to figure out oh I got to get rid of this here. If treasuries went so
[27:29] of this here. If treasuries went so high, uh, what's the scary number? That
[27:32] high, uh, what's the scary number? That money would come out of the stock market
[27:34] money would come out of the stock market in mass and go into treasuries. And so,
[27:38] in mass and go into treasuries. And so, we're looking at a 30-year just under
[27:40] we're looking at a 30-year just under 5.2% right now. So, the scary number
[27:43] 5.2% right now. So, the scary number that should startle everybody, and I
[27:45] that should startle everybody, and I would personally be scared as well, 7%.
[27:48] would personally be scared as well, 7%. 7% be very scared of massive amounts of
[27:52] 7% be very scared of massive amounts of money coming out of the stock market and
[27:54] money coming out of the stock market and going into treasuries.
[27:56] going into treasuries. We'll see if we ever get up there,
[27:58] We'll see if we ever get up there, right? Like we're pretty darn high on
[28:00] right? Like we're pretty darn high on that 30 here right now at nearly 5.2,
[28:02] that 30 here right now at nearly 5.2, right? Um, and the reason 7%'s so scary
[28:05] right? Um, and the reason 7%'s so scary is almost everybody that knows anything
[28:08] is almost everybody that knows anything about money is trained to think about
[28:10] about money is trained to think about the S&P 500 as getting you around 8%
[28:13] the S&P 500 as getting you around 8% return per year, right? Roughly, right?
[28:16] return per year, right? Roughly, right? That's like you learn that in like, you
[28:17] That's like you learn that in like, you know, finance 101 type stuff like, oh,
[28:20] know, finance 101 type stuff like, oh, you invest in the S&P 500, you get
[28:22] you invest in the S&P 500, you get around 8% compound annual growth rate,
[28:24] around 8% compound annual growth rate, right? So, if you're talking about 7%
[28:27] right? So, if you're talking about 7% risk-free, like a lot of people are
[28:29] risk-free, like a lot of people are going to start taking that. Then you go
[28:30] going to start taking that. Then you go to 8% plus, oh boy, rough times for the
[28:33] to 8% plus, oh boy, rough times for the stock market ahead if you were to go
[28:35] stock market ahead if you were to go there. But that's a big debate. Like,
[28:37] there. But that's a big debate. Like, you know, going up that high. If the Fed
[28:39] you know, going up that high. If the Fed does raise rates, you can I would make a
[28:42] does raise rates, you can I would make a I think you can make a strong argument
[28:43] I think you can make a strong argument that treasuries are actually going to go
[28:45] that treasuries are actually going to go down
[28:47] down down, not up if the Fed does raise rates
[28:51] down, not up if the Fed does raise rates because I think people would be more
[28:52] because I think people would be more fearful of, you know, what that could
[28:55] fearful of, you know, what that could mean for the economy and oh my gosh, the
[28:56] mean for the economy and oh my gosh, the Fed's starting to raise rates. And so I
[28:58] Fed's starting to raise rates. And so I think uh if anything, Treasuries would
[29:00] think uh if anything, Treasuries would actually go down, believe it or not, uh
[29:02] actually go down, believe it or not, uh if the Fed went ahead and raised rates.
[29:04] if the Fed went ahead and raised rates. So that's my belief on that. Okay, let's
[29:06] So that's my belief on that. Okay, let's talk some Wall Streeters. How to manage
[29:08] talk some Wall Streeters. How to manage your portfolio if interest rates rise.
[29:11] your portfolio if interest rates rise. >> We do have the major averages under a
[29:13] >> We do have the major averages under a little bit of pressure today. Not all
[29:15] little bit of pressure today. Not all that much. S&P down about a little more
[29:17] that much. S&P down about a little more than 1/3 of 1%. Uh Dow gives up uh
[29:20] than 1/3 of 1%. Uh Dow gives up uh 50,000. Uh once again, obviously we're
[29:23] 50,000. Uh once again, obviously we're watching rates. That's the biggest deal.
[29:25] watching rates. That's the biggest deal. Oil actually is lower today. The 10-year
[29:28] Oil actually is lower today. The 10-year hitting a high of 463.
[29:30] hitting a high of 463. It's the highest since February of 25.
[29:33] It's the highest since February of 25. So you're looking at more than a year
[29:34] So you're looking at more than a year since we've been there, but the
[29:36] since we've been there, but the commentary feels like it's changed. I
[29:38] commentary feels like it's changed. I mean, at least in some respects around
[29:40] mean, at least in some respects around what rates are doing. Traders now see
[29:42] what rates are doing. Traders now see the Fed uh uh moving as a a hike.
[29:47] the Fed uh uh moving as a a hike. December hike has a 51%
[29:50] December hike has a 51% probability. January 60, March uh 71%.
[29:54] probability. January 60, March uh 71%. Yardenni's talking about a July hike.
[29:57] Yardenni's talking about a July hike. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley. If bond
[29:59] Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley. If bond volume rises with rising rates on the
[30:01] volume rises with rising rates on the back end, we would expect a first
[30:03] back end, we would expect a first meaningful correction in equity prices
[30:07] meaningful correction in equity prices uh since the markets bottomed in March.
[30:09] uh since the markets bottomed in March. Joe, you get the first shot at this. Are
[30:11] Joe, you get the first shot at this. Are rising rates now the biggest risk to an
[30:13] rising rates now the biggest risk to an otherwise really good story? So, I think
[30:16] otherwise really good story? So, I think rising rates have you in the ready
[30:18] rising rates have you in the ready position to take action on how much you
[30:21] position to take action on how much you have played offense so far in Q2. If you
[30:24] have played offense so far in Q2. If you think about the competition in the
[30:26] think about the competition in the headlines in Q2, it was dominated by AI
[30:30] headlines in Q2, it was dominated by AI on a daily basis. And I think we we kind
[30:32] on a daily basis. And I think we we kind of reached this moment where it was as
[30:36] of reached this moment where it was as intense as it ultimately probably could
[30:38] intense as it ultimately probably could be with Cerebas' IPO last week. Now you
[30:41] be with Cerebas' IPO last week. Now you have competition, Scott. You have
[30:42] have competition, Scott. You have competition because, as you mentioned, a
[30:45] competition because, as you mentioned, a 10-year Treasury is at 4.60. And for the
[30:48] 10-year Treasury is at 4.60. And for the Trump administration, this is their real
[30:50] Trump administration, this is their real first significant economic challenge
[30:53] first significant economic challenge internally within the market, even more
[30:55] internally within the market, even more than crude oil itself. If you pull back
[30:57] than crude oil itself. If you pull back the lens and think about when President
[30:59] the lens and think about when President Trump was inaugurated on January 21st of
[31:02] Trump was inaugurated on January 21st of 2025, 2 days later, a 10-year traded
[31:05] 2025, 2 days later, a 10-year traded 4.66, they've had the benefit of 10-year
[31:08] 4.66, they've had the benefit of 10-year yields really acting at a very benign
[31:11] yields really acting at a very benign capacity. So, this is a a challenge to
[31:14] capacity. So, this is a a challenge to the headlines. This is a challenge to
[31:16] the headlines. This is a challenge to the Trump administration and from a
[31:18] the Trump administration and from a strategic uh standpoint first and
[31:20] strategic uh standpoint first and foremost it's a challenge to the
[31:22] foremost it's a challenge to the momentum factor and the momentum factor
[31:24] momentum factor and the momentum factor is the driving force right now in the
[31:26] is the driving force right now in the market. I think that's most at risk. I
[31:28] market. I think that's most at risk. I mean, Shannon, if this is the pullback
[31:31] mean, Shannon, if this is the pullback that you're getting on a day where
[31:32] that you're getting on a day where rates, you know, continue to have that
[31:34] rates, you know, continue to have that wave higher, I think many people would
[31:37] wave higher, I think many people would take that uh because they would believe
[31:39] take that uh because they would believe that the growth trajectory and the AI
[31:42] that the growth trajectory and the AI story are resilient enough to overcome
[31:45] story are resilient enough to overcome that. UBS talking about that today.
[31:47] that. UBS talking about that today. Yeah, we could get some consolidation.
[31:49] Yeah, we could get some consolidation. It wouldn't be a surprise after we've
[31:52] It wouldn't be a surprise after we've been up for seven weeks in a row. and
[31:55] been up for seven weeks in a row. and they don't expect higher yields to
[31:56] they don't expect higher yields to derail the positive outlook because
[31:58] derail the positive outlook because growth has remained resilient. There's
[32:00] growth has remained resilient. There's so much optimism around the the AI story
[32:02] so much optimism around the the AI story that you know if the market was uber
[32:05] that you know if the market was uber concerned with a move higher in rates
[32:07] concerned with a move higher in rates probably wouldn't look like it it does
[32:09] probably wouldn't look like it it does today. Now Joe's point is fair. Growth
[32:13] today. Now Joe's point is fair. Growth and tech is getting hit a little bit
[32:15] and tech is getting hit a little bit today because as rates go up obviously
[32:17] today because as rates go up obviously there's those are less favorable
[32:19] there's those are less favorable positions to be in a day.
[32:22] positions to be in a day. >> Yeah, this hasn't necessarily been all
[32:23] >> Yeah, this hasn't necessarily been all that unruly either. I think we've had
[32:25] that unruly either. I think we've had periods where the rate volatility has
[32:28] periods where the rate volatility has been significantly more amplified over
[32:30] been significantly more amplified over the course of the last couple of years.
[32:31] the course of the last couple of years. And so if you look at what the bond
[32:33] And so if you look at what the bond markets are pricing in, they're really
[32:35] markets are pricing in, they're really pricing in in our view on the long end
[32:38] pricing in in our view on the long end this growth scenario. And I think that a
[32:40] this growth scenario. And I think that a confluence of growth and inflation and
[32:43] confluence of growth and inflation and our view is actually on the short end of
[32:45] our view is actually on the short end of the curve. You know, we're probably we
[32:47] the curve. You know, we're probably we believe that it's still a little bit of
[32:49] believe that it's still a little bit of overreach on the on the rate story. I
[32:51] overreach on the on the rate story. I think you're talking about derailing and
[32:53] think you're talking about derailing and it and if this is just a growth story
[32:55] it and if this is just a growth story and we expected this concentration, this
[32:57] and we expected this concentration, this narrowness in the market to persist, but
[33:00] narrowness in the market to persist, but yet you have a a broader story in terms
[33:03] yet you have a a broader story in terms of economic momentum. Manufacturing
[33:05] of economic momentum. Manufacturing reaceleration, capex is broadening, 10
[33:08] reaceleration, capex is broadening, 10 out of 11 sectors posting stronger
[33:10] out of 11 sectors posting stronger earnings this past quarter. So right now
[33:13] earnings this past quarter. So right now the market has been concentrated from a
[33:14] the market has been concentrated from a performance perspective in those areas
[33:17] performance perspective in those areas that have done well from an AI adjacency
[33:19] that have done well from an AI adjacency perspective. The the reality is though,
[33:21] perspective. The the reality is though, Scott, is that the underpinnings of
[33:23] Scott, is that the underpinnings of economic growth are there. The last
[33:25] economic growth are there. The last thing I would note is that our view is
[33:27] thing I would note is that our view is that we don't necessarily need the Fed
[33:29] that we don't necessarily need the Fed to be meaningfully more accommodative in
[33:31] to be meaningfully more accommodative in the second half of the year. And so,
[33:33] the second half of the year. And so, we're not pinning this continued
[33:35] we're not pinning this continued economic growth on rate cuts.
[33:38] economic growth on rate cuts. >> But I think that conversation's changed.
[33:40] >> But I think that conversation's changed. I think you need to to to sort of I
[33:42] I think you need to to to sort of I think investors need to change that
[33:44] think investors need to change that thought process and say, "Yeah, we don't
[33:45] thought process and say, "Yeah, we don't need cuts, but what if we have to deal
[33:47] need cuts, but what if we have to deal with hikes?" like the conversation I
[33:49] with hikes?" like the conversation I feel on Fed on policy has has shifted
[33:52] feel on Fed on policy has has shifted enough that that needs to be the debate.
[33:54] enough that that needs to be the debate. In other words, Edardenni who's been one
[33:57] In other words, Edardenni who's been one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street,
[33:59] of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, right? 8250 is his target for year end.
[34:02] right? 8250 is his target for year end. He stays with that today, but calls for
[34:04] He stays with that today, but calls for a July hike. That is a complete change
[34:07] a July hike. That is a complete change of pace that even some of the most uber
[34:09] of pace that even some of the most uber bullish strategists on the street say,
[34:12] bullish strategists on the street say, "Yeah, the Fed could actually hike in
[34:13] "Yeah, the Fed could actually hike in July." Now, I don't think the market
[34:15] July." Now, I don't think the market believes it for a minute that the worst
[34:17] believes it for a minute that the worst Fed is going to going to do that. Could
[34:20] Fed is going to going to do that. Could only imagine u the missives that would
[34:22] only imagine u the missives that would come from the White House if that was
[34:24] come from the White House if that was even seriously entertained by the
[34:26] even seriously entertained by the incoming and new Fed chair. But I don't
[34:28] incoming and new Fed chair. But I don't think the market buys that for a second.
[34:30] think the market buys that for a second. >> No. And our view is that they they they
[34:32] >> No. And our view is that they they they shouldn't. We're we're we disagree with
[34:34] shouldn't. We're we're we disagree with that here. Um we don't think that the
[34:35] that here. Um we don't think that the Fed is going to hike rates in July. We
[34:37] Fed is going to hike rates in July. We don't think it because there just isn't
[34:39] don't think it because there just isn't the transmission to core CPI from higher
[34:42] the transmission to core CPI from higher energy prices that we would anticipate.
[34:43] energy prices that we would anticipate. Consumer spending is likely to slow
[34:45] Consumer spending is likely to slow incrementally from that discretionary
[34:47] incrementally from that discretionary wallet being cut into by high energy
[34:49] wallet being cut into by high energy prices. And Scott, we we aren't really
[34:51] prices. And Scott, we we aren't really seeing a robust level of wage growth. I
[34:53] seeing a robust level of wage growth. I mean, wage growth is moderating. So, you
[34:55] mean, wage growth is moderating. So, you know, that sort of speaks to still not a
[34:58] know, that sort of speaks to still not a maximum employment situation, which
[35:00] maximum employment situation, which gives the Fed time to wait and see,
[35:02] gives the Fed time to wait and see, which is our view.
[35:03] which is our view. >> How how do you see this year? We we you
[35:05] >> How how do you see this year? We we you know we hit a new highs numerous times
[35:07] know we hit a new highs numerous times last week. We ended with a whimper as
[35:09] last week. We ended with a whimper as rates went up and oil was up and the
[35:12] rates went up and oil was up and the market was ripe for something anyway
[35:13] market was ripe for something anyway because the market had gotten so
[35:14] because the market had gotten so topheavy and so narrow that all it took
[35:17] topheavy and so narrow that all it took was just a little inch of concern and
[35:19] was just a little inch of concern and all of a sudden you had a reasonable
[35:22] all of a sudden you had a reasonable selloff on Friday. Again, nothing of
[35:24] selloff on Friday. Again, nothing of great magnitude. And here we find
[35:26] great magnitude. And here we find ourselves. Rates are up. Market's not
[35:28] ourselves. Rates are up. Market's not down all that much. Tech is obviously
[35:30] down all that much. Tech is obviously getting hit. The NASDAQ is worse than
[35:32] getting hit. The NASDAQ is worse than the others. And even so, it's not that
[35:34] the others. And even so, it's not that big of a deal.
[35:35] big of a deal. >> It isn't. It
[35:37] >> It isn't. It >> Listen, if you want to know, can the
[35:39] >> Listen, if you want to know, can the market still go up with rates going
[35:42] market still go up with rates going higher, right?
[35:44] higher, right? It all comes down to earnings of tech
[35:46] It all comes down to earnings of tech companies, right? So, if you want to
[35:48] companies, right? So, if you want to know like why did we have the big
[35:50] know like why did we have the big downfall in 2022, you might assume,
[35:53] downfall in 2022, you might assume, okay, it's because inflation was going
[35:54] okay, it's because inflation was going insane and the Fed was raising rates the
[35:57] insane and the Fed was raising rates the most rapidly we've seen at any time in
[35:59] most rapidly we've seen at any time in modern history, right?
[36:02] modern history, right? That was not the biggest factor. The
[36:04] That was not the biggest factor. The biggest factor was tech earnings crashed
[36:08] biggest factor was tech earnings crashed throughout 2022. By the time you got
[36:10] throughout 2022. By the time you got into the beginning of 2023, like tech
[36:12] into the beginning of 2023, like tech earnings, some of the big tech companies
[36:14] earnings, some of the big tech companies were reporting down EPS year-over-year.
[36:17] were reporting down EPS year-over-year. So, that's what it comes down to. If all
[36:20] So, that's what it comes down to. If all a sudden Meta, Google, Amazon, all these
[36:23] a sudden Meta, Google, Amazon, all these big tech companies, right, their revenue
[36:25] big tech companies, right, their revenue growth stalls out over the next year,
[36:27] growth stalls out over the next year, Nvidia, right, which I don't know if
[36:29] Nvidia, right, which I don't know if that's going to happen, but let's just
[36:30] that's going to happen, but let's just say all the other ones, they all stall
[36:32] say all the other ones, they all stall out their revenues, right? Or start
[36:35] out their revenues, right? Or start reporting really slow growth and
[36:37] reporting really slow growth and earnings per share doesn't grow. Okay,
[36:39] earnings per share doesn't grow. Okay, we're going down Chinatown, right? But
[36:42] we're going down Chinatown, right? But as long as a show goes on with big tech,
[36:44] as long as a show goes on with big tech, that's what rules the market. That's
[36:46] that's what rules the market. That's what runs the market. as long as a show
[36:48] what runs the market. as long as a show goes on with those guys, you're you're
[36:49] goes on with those guys, you're you're good. So, that matters so much more than
[36:53] good. So, that matters so much more than if rates are higher or rates are lower
[36:55] if rates are higher or rates are lower or any of that stuff, okay? It all comes
[36:57] or any of that stuff, okay? It all comes down to earnings. And so, um you know,
[36:59] down to earnings. And so, um you know, that's what happened in 2022. That's
[37:01] that's what happened in 2022. That's what could happen in the future. So, you
[37:03] what could happen in the future. So, you know, if you were to say market goes
[37:05] know, if you were to say market goes down, you know, 30% over the next year,
[37:08] down, you know, 30% over the next year, why did it happen? The Fed rates rising,
[37:11] why did it happen? The Fed rates rising, things like that, that's just, you know,
[37:14] things like that, that's just, you know, a small part of it. It would likely be
[37:16] a small part of it. It would likely be because all of a sudden Meta, Google,
[37:18] because all of a sudden Meta, Google, all those companies, their revenue
[37:20] all those companies, their revenue growth start to stall out, start to go,
[37:22] growth start to stall out, start to go, you know, from like let's say 30, let's
[37:24] you know, from like let's say 30, let's say Meta grew last quarter 33%. Let's
[37:26] say Meta grew last quarter 33%. Let's say like a year from now, they're
[37:27] say like a year from now, they're growing like 11%. Right? Well, shoot, if
[37:30] growing like 11%. Right? Well, shoot, if that was to suddenly happen, okay,
[37:34] that was to suddenly happen, okay, we're crashing, you know, like like you
[37:36] we're crashing, you know, like like you know, big downfall, we're going down
[37:37] know, big downfall, we're going down 30%. Uh, plus, right? If Amazon, you
[37:41] 30%. Uh, plus, right? If Amazon, you know, AWS growth keeps accelerating, you
[37:43] know, AWS growth keeps accelerating, you know, if Amazon's growing revenues, you
[37:45] know, if Amazon's growing revenues, you know, how much did Amazon grow revenue
[37:47] know, how much did Amazon grow revenue last quarter? I can't remember if they
[37:48] last quarter? I can't remember if they grew as a company 14%.
[37:51] grew as a company 14%. Or what they grew, we'll take a peek
[37:54] Or what they grew, we'll take a peek here
[37:55] here with amazing on. So, Amazon as far as
[37:58] with amazing on. So, Amazon as far as current year revenue growth expected
[38:00] current year revenue growth expected 16%. Yeah. I mean, if they were to go
[38:01] 16%. Yeah. I mean, if they were to go from 16% to 6%.
[38:05] from 16% to 6%. Uh, yeah, we're going down Chinatown,
[38:07] Uh, yeah, we're going down Chinatown, right? Even this is a little worrisome.
[38:09] right? Even this is a little worrisome. Next year revenue growth is only going
[38:10] Next year revenue growth is only going to be like 9% that would be actually
[38:12] to be like 9% that would be actually scary. Amazon needs to be growing double
[38:15] scary. Amazon needs to be growing double digits strong double digits like mid
[38:17] digits strong double digits like mid like teens double digits every year
[38:19] like teens double digits every year revenue growth wise. If all a sudden
[38:21] revenue growth wise. If all a sudden they win single digits Amazon stocks
[38:23] they win single digits Amazon stocks crashing with along with the market
[38:25] crashing with along with the market itself right that's what it really comes
[38:27] itself right that's what it really comes down to. So you know that's what's
[38:31] down to. So you know that's what's important. I mean that's, you know, if
[38:33] important. I mean that's, you know, if you we go back to Meta, they were
[38:35] you we go back to Meta, they were reporting insane revenue growth by the
[38:37] reporting insane revenue growth by the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, their
[38:39] end of 2021. By the end of 2022, their revenue growth was like non-existent.
[38:41] revenue growth was like non-existent. Same thing, I go through all the big
[38:43] Same thing, I go through all the big tech companies. Their revenue growth
[38:44] tech companies. Their revenue growth from the end of 21 to all a sudden the
[38:46] from the end of 21 to all a sudden the end of 2022, it was like a night and day
[38:48] end of 2022, it was like a night and day difference. Like, oh my gosh, like what
[38:50] difference. Like, oh my gosh, like what happened to these companies? So, there's
[38:52] happened to these companies? So, there's something to kind of keep in mind there.
[38:53] something to kind of keep in mind there. Okay. All right, guys. I appreciate you
[38:55] Okay. All right, guys. I appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for
[38:56] joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Thank you for being
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