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軍武局 004 | 霍爾穆茲海峽大博弈 伊朗超限戰正在成功嗎? | feat. 軍武器研Larry 🇺🇸🇮🇷

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0Uf9gcXfZg
Translation: en

[00:11] 君第四集，獲之大，以朗超戰嗎？

[00:18] 大家好，今日我哋又同軍和Nary傾計啦。

[00:20] 今日正呢？

[00:20] 其實喇我哋想好集中講一個好似好細嘅目，但係呢亦都係牽涉到全世界嘅形勢，亦都係嚟自己呢場浪啦，就係講緊霍爾目之海，咁呀成場入邊而家變咗呢個關鍵呢，就好似一個鬥翼咁樣啦，總之內無論係俾人打到幾殘都好啦，好似仲有能力去封鎖或者半封鎖呢個合，美國就算利軍朗普又有人幫手，又冇人採佢咁亦都似乎冇辦法短期之內，令到浪風鎖唔到個合戰爭嘅成點都好，我先問呢個技術嘅問題啦，即係Lero你覺得其實之海合，究竟有冇能力有冇國家有能力可以完全封鎖，如果，有國家可以封鎖佢咁要反封鎖又可以點做啦。

[01:08] 第一點事民用的飛威脅。

[01:12] 第一點事民用的飛威脅。
The first point is the threat to civilian flights.

[01:16] 個山文啊咁多又好呀，我哋講目之旅可鎖呢？
There are so many of these, right? What are we talking about on this journey?

[01:20] 其實可以有幾個層次去睇嘅即係包第一個呢，就係個風程度去到邊度。
Actually, there are a few levels to look at. The first is the extent of the blockade.

[01:23] 咁呀另外一個呢，就係話嗰個武器有別可以去到邊個程度。
Another one is the extent to which the weapons can be differentiated.

[01:26] 咁但係呢，我哋呢會發現一個幾有角度嘅。
But we will find a very interesting angle.

[01:30] 就係個封鎖即，包括你話對方嘅軍事封鎖。
It's the blockade, including the enemy's military blockade.

[01:34] 定係對民用嘅船者嘅封鎖咧，其實就概念啦。
Or a blockade of civilian ships, the concept is actually the same.

[01:38] 即如果要令到美國軍，唔能夠喺放之海合通行呢，其實個難度會好高嘅但你會發現呢。
If you want to prevent the US military from passing through the South China Sea, the difficulty is actually very high, but you will find that.

[01:48] 朗而家嘅軍備就包括佢哋嘅海軍，佢哋嘅空軍呀，佢哋嘅彈無人艇呢，其實你又對美軍一定有威脅嘅，但睇就唔大咁好似特齋呢，你又真係將佢哋嘅海軍空軍摧毀，無人肌又死淨冇乜。
Their current military equipment includes their navy, their air force, their drone boats. In fact, you do pose a threat to the US military, but it doesn't seem significant. For example, if you really destroy their navy and air force, there won't be many people left.

[02:07] 好啦，甚至乎連佢哋嘅高層都唔多人嘅時間，咁係咪就組織唔到呢個嘅反抗力呢？
Well, even if there aren't many high-ranking officials left, can't they organize resistance?

[02:10] 但係我哋又鑽喎，如果你話對
But we are drilling, if you say it's against

[02:14] 嘅反抗力呢？
What is its resistance?

[02:20] 但係我哋又鑽喎，如果你話對誒普通嘅船咧其實嗰個嘅打擊力可以去到一個好大嘅威力嘅。
But we are also drilling. If you say for ordinary ships, in fact, the striking power can reach a very great power.

[02:24] 咩意思呢即係話如果你話打個即包括佢哋啲嘅財質，好多嘢都梗係詐啦，
What does that mean? That is to say, if you say, for example, their property, many things are naturally fake,

[02:33] 但系雙用就唔係咁睇㗎喇喎即包括我哋講你用無人機去激中其實頭幾手嘅商船嘅時間呢嗱大家已經睇到朗嘅無人機可以對傷就話威脅到邊一度㗎啦。
But dual-use is not seen that way. That is to say, including us, if you use drones to attack merchant ships, in fact, in the first few hands, everyone has already seen that Lang's drones can threaten the wounded.

[02:45] 即係包括嘞，你可以用無人機嘅形式呢去攻擊商船，其實佢哋係冇辦法抵抗嘅。
That is to say, including, you can attack merchant ships in the form of drones, in fact, they have no way to resist.

[02:54] 即係諗你個點樣扭個傻，你實種嘅無人機咁中之後呢咁呀梗係著火啦咁而家問題就係誒，無人咁樣打中落去嘅著火呢你只能夠逃生咁乎會製造到亡。
That is to say, think about how you twist the fool. After the drone hits like that, it will naturally catch fire. So now the problem is, if the drone hits like that and catches fire, you can only escape, which will cause death.

[03:07] 錦呢件事呢就嚇親曬所嘅東㗎喇。
This incident has frightened all the easterners.

[03:11] 咁呀甚至乎我哋未計呢仲有啲水底嘅人機呢，係可以向船嘅左
And even we haven't counted yet, there are also underwater drones, which can be directed towards the ship's left.

[03:15] 計呢仲有啲水底嘅人機呢，係可以向船嘅左右言呀咁樣炸呢你又係炸中你都未知嘅咁亦
There are also some underwater drones, which can explode towards the left and right of the ship, and you might not even know if you've been hit.

[03:20] 都有啲船失蹤嘅性啊咁呀之前即無論力泰國
There are also some ships that go missing. For example, before, whether it was Thailand

[03:23] 嘅嗰一手啦，或者係呢黑南部、巴士拉講曬
that incident, or whether it was in the South China Sea, or Basra, to put it all together

[03:28] 火美國嗰
the US military's

[03:31] 人機嘅慣。所以呢玩到嚟呢度呢大家已經開
drone habits. So by the time we get here, everyone has already started

[03:35] 始得出一個picture就係如果你話對
to get a picture, which is that if you talk about attacking

[03:38] 美國嘅軍南嘅攻擊咧去封鎖呢個目之可嘞，
the US military to blockade this area,

[03:43] 其實我諗美軍就唔係點驚你嘅咁，但係如果
I actually think the US military isn't too worried about you, but if

[03:46] 你話啦，牽涉到大家一家大細啦講緊啲相民
you say, it involves everyone's families, talking about civilians

[03:50] 用說，無論你講緊你輪遊論輪呢就真係吹唔
using force, whether you're talking about tourism or whatever, you really can't

[03:54] 著。你如果吹唔著嘅情況就係話究竟你可以
succeed. If you can't succeed, then the question is how far can you

[03:59] 有幾高先？嗱如果就係你少用都做唔到呀，
go? Well, if you can't even do it with less force,

[04:04] 即係我哋見過五手相爆炸嘩，沖天火呢啲呢
meaning we've seen explosions, fires reaching the sky, these kinds of scenes

[04:10] 啲畫面太震撼咁，而啲相船呢個發現呢，你
are too shocking. And the discovery of these ships, you

[04:14] 得唔到朗嘅觸，嘅話呢，過呢隻要咁樣渣一
don't get the right touch. If so, then this one needs to be handled like this.

[04:18] 得唔到朗嘅觸，嘅話呢，過呢隻要咁樣渣一窄，就第一，船啲船，大家知道幾多錢啦，

[04:21] 窄，就第一，船啲船，大家知道幾多錢啦，

[04:26] 咁而家佢呢啲嘅紀錄呢會同佢之後，可能去後面嘅保險公司等等咧，嗰個費用㗎嘛。

[04:30] 咁而家佢呢啲嘅紀錄呢會同佢之後，可能去後面嘅保險公司等等咧，嗰個費用㗎嘛。

[04:33] 咁而老實講呢個講到海保險公司，成堡補嚟例嚟去都幾間嘅唧，即系最大嘅

[04:39] 在再保險。咁咪都係嗰啲，咁你個網

[04:42] 在再保險。咁咪都係嗰啲，咁你個網 record喺度㗎啦，十至乎你手選你救

[04:44] record喺度㗎啦，十至乎你手選你救得返你都好彩咁所以而家做生意呢，係好厭

[04:48] 風險嘅角度嚟睇呢咁我覺得其實家呢佢對服

[04:52] 之海合嗰個封鎖呢，嗰個心理影同個承受嘅

[04:56] 程度係俾。軍立世。咁所以問題就係而家封

[04:59] 鎖呢唔係封鎖啲困鎖緊啲相。啲相你話有冇

[05:05] 辦法可以逃避得到呢？暫時好難，即係包括

[05:09] 呢嗰種嘅工就係話我哋假設而家突然間喺海

[05:14] 呢有一架你覺好似一個快orang行過咁

[05:19] 呢有一架你覺好似一個快orang行過咁你作為相信船嘅船長，你會點做呢？

[05:23] 你作為相信船嘅船長，你會點做呢？

[05:28] 你究竟係停落嚟下定係你繼續呢開到最快咁行呢，但係最快都唔會去到幾多折㗎喇啲大雪。

[05:31] 咁所以而家尷尬呢，在於攻木皆兵呢樣嘢呢？

[05:36] 你商船呢，少少嘢呢吹祖動唔敢囉。

[05:40] 咁所以大家發現啦，現時啲商船就停曬呢喺兩呀，

[05:44] 一啲唔同嘅地方唔敢喐咁呢？

[05:48] 誒我哋聽到啲嘅ష音呢講緊中國嘅課船啦，佢哋都擔心受

[05:53] 到攻擊，咁你仲研究係頭應該行嘅夜晚行咁

[05:58] 呀，究竟邊個時段會被獲救嘅機會最大呢？

[06:02] 即係大家上講嘅中國都可能係不被有嘅情況

[06:06] 呢，已經Pan力到咁樣，咁大家諗嚇其他

[06:09] 嘅船者嘅船會點？

[06:14] 咁所以現時以目之嘅封鎖嘅情況呢？

[06:17] 我覺得其實最令人擔心呢係一個信心嘅危機呢咁呀多國或始終嘅商船呢佢哋

[06:23] 信心嘅危機呢咁呀多國或始終嘅商船呢佢哋只要ంత下呢，其實佢哋嘅身家性命佢哋都
A crisis of confidence, so many countries or always merchant ships, they just need to know, in fact, their lives and property, they all

[06:26] 覺得真係成大都成受唔起。
feel that they really can't afford it.

[06:30] 第二點，與期落差與推薦的下。
Second point, the gap between expectations and recommendations.

[06:34] 頭先你提到呢個咁嘅現象呢？有好多要
You just mentioned this phenomenon? There are many

[06:37] followup嘅問題嘅，首先你覺得特
follow-up questions. First, do you think Trump

[06:40] 朗普喺開戰嘅時候，有冇諗到郎呢一照呢，
when he started the war, did he think of this move by Iran?

[06:43] 即係而家表面上係成功㗎嘛，即係你被人吹
That is, on the surface it is successful, that is, you are praised

[06:45] 位毀到點都好，就算你得返一兩成你要去玩
no matter how much your reputation is destroyed, even if you only have one or two percent left, you want to play

[06:50] 下商船都絕對係有人有咁究竟朗普系估咗伊
merchant ships, there will definitely be people. So, did Trump guess Iran's

[06:56] 朗呢一招嘅決心呀，定係高估咗美軍可以徹
resolve with this move, or did he overestimate the US military's ability to completely

[07:00] 底令到朗年誒，即係叫所謂封鎖海合商船嘅
make Iran fail? That is, the so-called blockade of maritime merchant ships

[07:04] 能力都冇呢，定係佢本身根本就冇諗過呢啲
ability is gone? Or did he himself never consider these

[07:07] 問題只要佢一
problems? As long as he

[07:09] 即去投行啦，轉態呢嗱，我相信咧第三個可
immediately goes to investment banking, changes his attitude, I believe the third possibility

[07:13] 能性呢就講出黎真爽啦同埋就好容易就解決
is that it comes out frankly and the problem is easily solved.

[07:18] 咗個問題。咁但係你話人哋發嗰種嘅諗法呢
The problem. But you say that kind of thinking that others have

[07:23] 咗個問題。

[07:23] 咁但係你話人哋發嗰種嘅諗法呢？

[07:23] 咁啊最容易解釋嘅咁，但係我哋都即管得一個總統啦咁佢應該諗嘢呢就多方面去考慮嘅。

[07:31] 咁我哋職就做一個正常嘅位置去諗啦。

[07:31] 咁相信呢就首先第一就係總統佢唔會完全軍事嘅。

[07:39] 咁，而佢後面嘅軍事一個就係國家安全股民。

[07:42] 另一個呢，就來自軍頭，即係我哋講嘅參獎啦咁呀可以分好多種咁最到首通常就叫做參獎長聯會議主席，就或者好多嘅一啲共產家獨裁國家講嘅總參獎長、參獎咁樣。

[08:00] 咁佢哋就係第一星打哂仗、有曬公職樂院派，佢哋好熟，邊啲系統，點樣去打，後果係點冰推甚至乎而家AI嗰啲推算，咁佢哋都好熟嘅。

[08:15] 咁所以最終呢講到今次呢戰爭呢嗱，我覺得每個將軍呢？

[08:19] 首先佢哋有個人臘立場咁，但係呢個人臘場一擺到最後嘅。

[08:25] 但係呢個人臘場一擺到最後嘅。
But this person wax field is placed at the end.

[08:27] 咁所以佢哋建議總統呢？
So they suggested the president?

[08:27] 首先係一個問題總統理上點還線，當然呢個就好多公仔都理解嘅嘢。
First is a question, how does the president manage the line? Of course, this is something many people understand.

[08:31] 咁如果特朗普啦，我想更昇咁樣。
Then if it's Trump, I want to rise further.

[08:38] 其實軍策凱雖然我哋好唔想㗎咁樣承認。
In fact, the military strategy Kai, although we really don't want to admit it like this.

[08:54] 但係科一個國際嘅水道，但係因為佢實在經過朗呢，喺個領嘅附近同埋呢出面嗰個位置呢敏感啦。
But it is an international waterway, but because it really passes through Lang, it is sensitive near the cape and in that position outside.

[08:58] 甚至乎朗都係一個好多無人機度嘅國家啦咁。
Even Lang is a country with many drones.

[09:08] 而其他海國家梗係大家都會為一賺錢就唔會諗住去遲呢個水度㗎嘛。
And of course, other maritime countries will make money for one, so they won't think of delaying this waterway.

[09:15] 咁，所以呢件事一次兵推呢，通常呢最終十八九咧都係講朗最終嘅頻利啦，憑住佢幾十年嚟嘅武器準備
So, this matter, one military exercise, usually in the end, eighteen or nineteen times, it talks about Lang's final victory, relying on his decades of weapon preparation.

[09:28] 最終嘅頻利啦，憑住佢幾十年嚟嘅武器準備啦佢哋嘅地下嘅彈場呀，佢哋資源嘅準備呀
The final advantage, relying on their decades of weapons preparation, their underground arsenals, their resource preparation

[09:34] 啦佢哋嘅地下嘅彈場呀，佢哋資源嘅準備呀等等呢，都係能夠敗論美國或者所嘅盟友㗎
Their underground arsenals, their resource preparation, etc., are all capable of defeating the United States or its allies.

[09:38] 等等呢，都係能夠敗論美國或者所嘅盟友㗎 啦，咁所以呢度咧係有個警告喺度咁你話呢
etc., are all capable of defeating the United States or its allies. So, there is a warning here, what do you say?

[09:41] 啦，咁所以呢度咧係有個警告喺度咁你話呢個上中三嘅下
So, there is a warning here, what do you say? The upper, middle, and lower of the three.

[09:43] 個上中三嘅下特朗普知唔知，我覺得佢知嘅。但就係話呢
The upper, middle, and lower of the three. Does Trump know? I think he knows. But it's that

[09:48] 特朗普知唔知，我覺得佢知嘅。但就係話呢個限制呢包括首先第一個你能唔能夠成功呢
Does Trump know? I think he knows. But it's that this limitation includes, first of all, can you succeed?

[09:53] 個限制呢包括首先第一個你能唔能夠成功呢喺最短嘅時間將佢個領導層打低先。即係包
This limitation includes, first of all, can you succeed? In the shortest time, can you take down their leadership first? That is, including

[09:57] 括斬手任務啦咁呀，包括將佢哋上攤換咗，
Including decapitation missions, and including replacing their leaders,

[10:02] 咁係咪就能夠將呢個問題冇事呢？又或者將
So, can this problem be resolved without incident? Or by

[10:06] 咁係咪就能夠將呢個問題冇事呢？又或者將佢啲基礎建設打爆佢海關空軍冇曬啦，咁樣
So, can this problem be resolved without incident? Or by destroying their infrastructure, their customs, their air force is gone, like that

[10:10] 心支付，連佢嗰個財政體系都崩潰唔到涼啲
Payment, even their financial system collapses, it's not cool

[10:15] 心支付，連佢嗰個財政體系都崩潰唔到涼啲人就人心挖咁樣，係咪情報工作暗曬咁樣咁
Payment, even their financial system collapses, it's not cool. People are digging for hearts, is the intelligence work completely dark like that?

[10:20] 就可以跟處理到呢嗱，我相信呢？應該係有
Then it can be handled. Well, I believe? It should be

[10:24] 就可以跟處理到呢嗱，我相信呢？應該係有個
Then it can be handled. Well, I believe? It should be one

[10:27] 今次美國嘅部隊做嘅時候呢，全部都做足嘅
When the US troops do it this time, they do everything thoroughly.

[10:31] 今次美國嘅部隊做嘅時候呢，全部都做足嘅。

[10:34] 即係包括喺dayone嘅時候就已經將奈擊殺啦。

[10:40] 大部分嘅政府高層被擊殺啦，甚至乎連日嚟都係激越多高層啦，咁樣。

[10:44] 第3年，去中心法的軍事網絡受失考。

[10:49] 咁肯定上面嗰層嘅指揮圈呢，就冇乜人喺度，咁係咪就會

[10:54] 尤其是我哋講到啲指揮暴部被打，嗱，喺傳統嘅戰爭咧卸無頭不行嘅道理就係話，當你

[11:02] 現代戰爭冇咗指揮。

[11:08] 冇咗個大腦揮，其實首腳嗱由理論上應該攤嘅。

[11:13] 但係呢喺一啲後國家嚟依朗呢成件事呢。

[11:18] 可能又同美國嘅設有少少不同嘅，其他嘅部隊呢落到去誒 level呢，可能佢哋會有自己嘅諗法嘅

[11:26] ，即呢可能佢哋好早嘅時間呢，佢哋會知道如果上面冇通訊應該點打？

[11:30] 咁呢個呢唔出奇

[11:34] 如果上面冇通訊應該點打？

[11:37] 咁呢個呢唔出奇嘅，因為佢哋可能係即嗰個連線嘅通訊好多時都會裂都唔出奇。

[11:41] 喺呢個情況呢，即係而家變咗就係我哋叫咗一種系好似 Bitcoin嗰種呢係去中心化嘅軍事網絡。

[11:47] 即係而家上面冇止㗎喇，可能上面嘅革命衛隊嘅頭咧已經唔會再俾子你下面點打。

[11:55] 咁你下面有彈個批，同埋有人機個批呢可能你要係因應環境去做，即例如可能以前曾經俾個幾時，如果咁嘅情況每日就放，每日放幾多門，或者每日放幾多個嘅彈出去，如果你可以的話，咁會唔會有呢啲咁嘅事嘅指示咗佢哋咁佢哋因應環境去做呢件事，咁亦都睇到呢，最終呢啲嘅攻擊咧，全部都唔止一個團咁樣呢係有導向性嘅。

[12:25] 即係你好似突然間好亂咁樣呢度成幾知，嗰度都成幾知咁樣，冇一個整體嘅效果就出嚟，即係呢種去中心一嘅攻擊咧？

[12:28] 會唔會其中一個係即可能連

[12:36] 心一嘅攻擊咧？
What about the attack?

[12:36] 會唔會其中一個係即可能連美國都冇辦法估計得到嘅事，咁所以目之海
Could one of them be something that even the United States cannot estimate?

[12:40] 美國都冇辦法估計得到嘅事，咁所以目之海
Something that even the United States cannot estimate?

[12:45] 呢嗱，你話佢反擊有冇之前想像中咁大威脅呢？
So, you say, is their counterattack as threatening as previously imagined?

[12:49] 又好似冇即系起碼你對美國嘅軍呀，或者傷害就去到零咁滯。
It doesn't seem like it, at least for the US military, the damage is almost zero.

[12:53] 但係你話佢對附近嘅商船嗰種呢孤
But what about their attacks on nearby merchant ships?

[12:56] 始終都講過啦一兩單都唔多咁現時都已經最少有五六單咁樣嘅案件咧咁呀即係令大一部
As I've always said, one or two incidents are not many, but now there are at least five or six such cases, which means a large part

[13:00] 少有五六單咁樣嘅案件咧咁呀即係令大一部
At least five or six such cases, which means a large part

[13:03] ，咁所以呢即係你話係咪冇估計到唔係。
So, you say, is it that they didn't estimate it? No.

[13:07] 但係有啲嘢出乎意療嘅，甚至乎就係佢以為個戰爭會打得好好嘅時間呢，相反對咁後國家
But some things are unexpected, even when they thought the war would go well, conversely, for those countries

[13:11] 呢當佢進入咗個困，就係啲
When they enter a predicament, it's the

[13:15] 為呢其實你真係10個山你都唔知道，10個山佢哋嘅部隊，佢哋嘅人機，佢哋嘅水咁
For this, in reality, you really don't know even 10 mountains, 10 mountains of their troops, their aircraft, their navy.

[13:18] 為呢其實你真係10個山你都唔知道，10個山佢哋嘅部隊，佢哋嘅人機，佢哋嘅水咁
For this, in reality, you really don't know even 10 mountains, 10 mountains of their troops, their aircraft, their navy.

[13:22] 你變咗嘅情報都滲透唔到落去呢咁可能系中
Your intelligence cannot penetrate, so it might be in the middle

[13:26] 下層嘅level嘅時間呢咁個海就咁大喎
At the lower level, the sea is so vast.

[13:31] ，咁所以隻要有一兩個部隊玩野成功呢突破
So, as long as one or two units play tricks successfully and break through

[13:35] ，咁所以隻要有一兩個部隊玩野成功呢突破
So, as long as one or two units play tricks successfully and break through

[13:40] ，咁所以隻要有一兩個部隊玩野成功呢突破到即係我哋講都冇話海軍好大嘅防放防守個
So as long as one or two troops play tricks and succeed in breaking through, then we don't have to say the navy has a very large defense, defense range.

[13:45] 到即係我哋講都冇話海軍好大嘅防放防守個範圍。咁一兩首選就已經令到大家好嘅時間
Then we don't have to say the navy has a very large defense, defense range. Then one or two choices will already take up a lot of everyone's time.

[13:50] 範圍。咁一兩首選就已經令到大家好嘅時間啦。咁所以相信特朗普係可能呀喺呢個部分
Range. Then one or two choices will already take up a lot of everyone's time. So I believe Trump might be in this part.

[13:54] 啦。咁所以相信特朗普係可能呀喺呢個部分上面呢，尤其是喺頭兩日嗰個好似好成功嘅
La. So I believe Trump might be in this part, especially in the first two days, that seemingly very successful action.

[13:57] 上面呢，尤其是喺頭兩日嗰個好似好成功嘅行動裏面呢，可能都有忽嘅一個元素都唔著
Especially in the first two days, in that seemingly very successful action, there might be an element of surprise that is not noticed.

[14:00] 行動裏面呢，可能都有忽嘅一個元素都唔著記嘅
In the action, there might be an element of surprise that is not noticed.

[14:02] 記嘅第四。國際聯合的組成障礙與先決呀。或者
Remembered. Fourth. Obstacles and prerequisites for the formation of international alliances. Or

[14:07] 第四。國際聯合的組成障礙與先決呀。或者咁講呢，誒，特朗普之前嗰幾日呢就好高調
Fourth. Obstacles and prerequisites for the formation of international alliances. Or, to put it this way, hey, in the few days before, Trump was very high-profile.

[14:11] 咁講呢，誒，特朗普之前嗰幾日呢就好高調要人幫拖啦，即係要北養嘅盟友甚至鐘中國
To put it this way, hey, in the few days before, Trump was very high-profile, asking for help, meaning asking NATO allies and even China

[14:14] 要人幫拖啦，即係要北養嘅盟友甚至鐘中國都埋住你邊個唔幫我呢？就係撲街
Asking for help, meaning asking NATO allies and even China to support me, who doesn't help me? They will fail.

[14:19] 都埋住你邊個唔幫我呢？就係撲街而家爆爛渣啦，即係話你哋。咁但係即係我
They will fail. Now it's a mess, meaning you guys. But I

[14:23] 而家爆爛渣啦，即係話你哋。咁但係即係我想問返個好睇嘅問題，就算佢哋幫手幫到幾
Now it's a mess, meaning you guys. But I want to ask a good question, even if they help as much as they can,

[14:26] 想問返個好睇嘅問題，就算佢哋幫手幫到幾多咁，因為國嘅反應其實好，我都好
I want to ask a good question, even if they help as much as they can, because the country's reaction is actually very good, I also very much

[14:29] 多咁，因為國嘅反應其實好，我都好 makesense嘅，即係邏輯上餵你咁
Much, because the country's reaction is actually very good, I also very much makes sense, logically speaking, feeding you like this

[14:31] makesense嘅，即係邏輯上餵你咁勁都打唔掂，咁我哋跑咗兩手男有咩用呢咁
Makes sense, logically speaking, feeding you like this. Even if you are strong, you can't handle it, so what's the use of us running around with two hands?

[14:34] 勁都打唔掂，咁我哋跑咗兩手男有咩用呢咁，即係話我哋先唔理點睇呢個政權點睇嗰個
Even if you are strong, you can't handle it, so what's the use of us running around with two hands? That is to say, let's not care how we view this regime or that person,

[14:37] ，即係話我哋先唔理點睇呢個政權點睇嗰個人呢總之要防守到每一隻過
That is to say, let's not care how we view this regime or that person, in short, we must defend every single one.

[14:42] 人呢總之要防守到每一隻過的商船，究竟有咩辦法呢定係根本係冇可能
People, in short, must defend every merchant ship that passes. What is the solution, or is it fundamentally impossible?

[14:46] 的商船，究竟有咩辦法呢定係根本係冇可能
merchant ship that passes. What is the solution, or is it fundamentally impossible?

[14:49] 即係唔係無論軍備幾好都好啦，都冇可能可
That is to say, no matter how good the military equipment is, it is impossible.

[14:51] 以令到絕對個安全啦。嘩，呢度咧，可能我哋要分呢兩至三個方向
to achieve absolute safety. Wow, here, maybe we need to divide this into two to three directions.

[14:55] 去講嘅，咁我嘗試簡單講幾句啦。第一個方
to talk about. Then I will try to say a few simple words. The first direction

[14:58] 向呢就好似嗰位德國嘅官員講呢？你話係唔
is like what that German official said? You say it's not

[15:03] 係因為個男隊規模太細就幫唔到呢咁我只能
because the male team is too small to help? Then I can only

[15:08] 夠講呢留林
say Lin

[15:10] 唧勿爾小為之勿以
Ji Wu Er Xiao Wei Zhi Wu Yi

[15:12] 為唔好睇自己有嘅力量呢大家加埋就好大㗎
because you underestimate your own strength? If everyone combines their strength, it will be very large.

[15:17] 喇咁所以第一個呢種推嘅說話呢就常見嘅咁
So the first type of推嘅說話 is common.

[15:21] ，但係我亦都明白對好多國家嚟講呢佢哋軍
, but I also understand that for many countries, their military

[15:25] 少少出到去仲要俾人打傷甚至乎死人呢可以
going out a little and getting injured or even killed by others can

[15:30] 咁講嗰個政客嘅政治生命呢玩原㗎喇，即係
be said that the politician's political life is over. That is to say,

[15:34] 基本上政治自殺嚟嘅。咁，你話喺個前途嚟
it is basically political suicide. Then, you say in terms of future prospects,

[15:38] 講既然，得罪特朗普，當然會有後果，但係
speaking, since offending Trump, there will naturally be consequences, but

[15:41] 未必嘅咁，但係如果我派
it's not necessarily so. But if I send

[15:47] 令到我政治生命完結，又睇唔到有啲咩即時
It led to the end of my political life, and I didn't see any immediate

[15:53] 嘅reward喎。咁老實講你好多人唔做呢件事。
reward. So honestly, many people don't do this.

[15:58] 又冇話即時後果嘅咁唔做真係好正常㗎喎係咪即係一個計算呀，喺正客嘅計算裏面咁所當然都要睇就係成個海合最中你個
There are no immediate consequences, so not doing it is really normal, isn't it? It's a calculation, in the customer's calculation, so naturally, we have to look at the entire maritime cooperation, the most central to you

[16:05] 使用上面係最大得益同埋最大受
usage above is the greatest benefit and the greatest receiving

[16:15] 利嘅另外例外啦直接呢你話石油呢嗰樣嘢未
benefit, another exception. Directly, you say oil, that thing is not

[16:19] 必係即係最影響到美國其實咁但係我哋又講
necessarily the most impactful to the US, actually. But we also talk

[16:23] 返啦即係你話軍嗰度呢其實現時早呢啲嘅聯
back. You say military there, actually currently early these alliances

[16:27] 合呢咁有個困難呢度嘅，即係話，大家自唔
and so there is a difficulty here, meaning, everyone themselves

[16:34] 同嘅國家。咁佢哋個指揮係統呢，其實老實
different countries. And their command system, honestly

[16:37] 講，只要我係北藥嘅制。即係我哋講得啦、
speaking, as long as I am the North's system. That is, we can say,

[16:42] 英國啦、法國啦、意大利啦、西班牙啦，即
the UK, France, Italy, Spain, that is

[16:46] 係我哋隨後都數到都係國家呢佢哋一齊嗰個
is that we subsequently counted all the countries, they together that

[16:51] 係我哋隨後都數到都係國家呢佢哋一齊嗰個嘅commandcontrol都係同一

[16:52] 嘅commandcontrol都係同一樣，甚至乎我哋就膽講，日本南韓，咁啊佢

[16:57] 樣，甚至乎我哋就膽講，日本南韓，咁啊佢邀請嘅國家，其實全部都係同美國經常性去

[17:01] 邀請嘅國家，其實全部都係同美國經常性去做啲海共同演習嘅國家。

[17:05] 做啲海共同演習嘅國家。咁無論調例應，無論我哋講到裏面好多嘅作戰嘅慣例嘅距明白

[17:10] 論我哋講到裏面好多嘅作戰嘅慣例嘅距明白。

[17:13] 咁呀，都係由美國做嗰個事令嘅咁，所以呢度呢其實唔存在咩國家之間好難溝通，所

[17:17] 呢度呢其實唔存在咩國家之間好難溝通，所以做聯合隊嘅時候呢就未必可以咁順暢做到

[17:20] 以做聯合隊嘅時候呢就未必可以咁順暢做到，咁呢個都唔需要太擔心呢個問題嘅咁所以

[17:24] ，咁呢個都唔需要太擔心呢個問題嘅咁所以其實最後都係講返呢？

[17:27] 其實最後都係講返呢？就係頭先，我哋講政客會考慮嗰個風險呀。

[17:31] 客會考慮嗰個風險呀。第個咧，特朗普要喺組織呢個聯合之前，佢要好清楚。

[17:35] 組織呢個聯合之前，佢要好清楚。你有啲嘢做㗎。

[17:39] 做㗎。即係做咩呢，即係佢要清除咗個威脅先。

[17:43] 先。咁海凱威脅嘅不外乎嘢嘅啫。嗱第一個呢就無人機，咁所以無人機呢，或者飛彈呢

[17:46] 呢就無人機，咁所以無人機呢，或者飛彈呢個嘅處理方法就係你將嗰啲基地呢就做個展

[17:50] 個嘅處理方法就係你將嗰啲基地呢就做個展啦，咁誒當我哋呢一日呢就美國放咗

[17:54] 啦，咁誒當我哋呢一日呢就美國放咗 5000嘅炸彈去攻擊一個彈城。

[17:58] 咁嗰個位置呢，就喺目之海嘅咁明顯，就打擊呢度附近咧嗰啲儲存嗰啲彈起上嚟都幾精彩嘅。

[18:07] 咁嗰種呢爆再爆再爆嘅直話俾你聽呢，下面一定有好多無論炸彈到呢啲存，即係話可能已經銷毀咗批啦咁，但係當然啦我哋講就算你掃除到99可能仲有一個喺度，不過呢出嚟嘅嘅impact會爭好遠嘅即係話如果有個criticalmass你能夠消除咗或者你起碼能夠令到個市場相信你真系除咗90成㗎嗱實際我哋唔知但係如果你能夠畀個市場相信呢件事咁而出現個言你有好彩嘅話呢其實起碼令到嚟緊做航嘅男覺得風險起碼係細到可以係即係接受得到咁乎幾多國家就係參與咁你再計返嗰個言被擊中嘅機會

[18:58] 家就係參與咁你再計返嗰個言被擊中嘅機會再細啲呢可能會大啲有因做，即係話而家咧

[19:02] 再細啲呢可能會大啲有因做，即係話而家咧，對佢哋嚟講佢哋睇唔到個著數位喺邊度啦

[19:05] ，對佢哋嚟講佢哋睇唔到個著數位喺邊度啦，但係個風險就無限大，唔敢做，所以就係

[19:09] ，但係個風險就無限大，唔敢做，所以就係始終都係特朗普畀唔到信心同埋嗰個地，你

[19:14] 始終都係特朗普畀唔到信心同埋嗰個地，你出到嚟放心安全美國一定保你冇事上我一定

[19:20] 出到嚟放心安全美國一定保你冇事上我一定朗普唔會做呢樣嘢，咁所以呢個呢亦都係以

[19:23] 朗普唔會做呢樣嘢，咁所以呢個呢亦都係以往咧，盟友之間嗰份信任，而家係冇咗啊。

[19:27] 往咧，盟友之間嗰份信任，而家係冇咗啊。

[19:30] 嗱，咁當然呢個就即牽涉到個外國外交政策，或者係美國同北關係個問題啦。咁嚟到呢

[19:34] ，或者係美國同北關係個問題啦。咁嚟到呢度咧，噉你會發現嘅，清除機吹著飛彈係近

[19:40] 度咧，噉你會發現嘅，清除機吹著飛彈係近內要做嘢啦。水嘅報紙呢就可能大家擔心其

[19:45] 內要做嘢啦。水嘅報紙呢就可能大家擔心其實水應該都唔係最大問，因為水嘅第一，呢

[19:48] 實水應該都唔係最大問，因為水嘅第一，呢唔係放。第二呢，佢哋係期待無機或者度彈

[19:53] 唔係放。第二呢，佢哋係期待無機或者度彈即係控制邊個可以過邊個唔可以過嘅時間呢

[19:57] 即係控制邊個可以過邊個唔可以過嘅時間呢？嘅水就未必咁輕鬆，又做到敵我識邊嘅呢

[20:00] ？嘅水就未必咁輕鬆，又做到敵我識邊嘅呢個問題。
The water is not necessarily that easy, and it can distinguish between friend and foe. This is the problem.

[20:03] 咁所以其實朗都唔會做好多水嘅報紙嘅啫，咁呀反而呢，會用啲水底嘅無人機。
So in fact, it won't do much reporting in the water, but instead will use underwater drones.

[20:06] 咁呢樣呢，佢哋都能夠做到敵我識辨。
In this way, they can distinguish between friend and foe.

[20:10] 呢個呢誒，你話美國難除都未必咁，但係問題就係佢未必足夠嘅男數量。
This, you say it's hard for the US, but the problem is that the number of men may not be sufficient.

[20:14] 所以佢係要多一啲男做嘅呢件事咁可能要等到縣東地區過嚟嘅時候會多啲男一齊做。
So it needs more men to do this, and it may have to wait until the eastern region comes over when there will be more men doing it together.

[20:17] 咁所以時間上呢可能講禮拜去做聯納隊嘅概念未足夠嘅咁。
So in terms of time, perhaps the concept of forming a joint team for a week is not yet sufficient.

[20:22] 但係你話當呢兩嘢做好咗之後會唔會畀更大嘅信心，即係俾到北國家，畀到日本韓國。
But you say that after these two things are done, will it give greater confidence, that is, to the northern countries, to Japan and South Korea?

[20:26] 佢哋派兵，佢說服本個國民都有更大嘅利呢？
They send troops, they persuade their own citizens to have greater benefits?

[20:32] 咁呢個呢，就係關鍵啦，咁所以最終呢？
So this is the key, so ultimately?

[20:36] 其實我覺得就係特朗普你個傳，就俾人哋都感覺就係你係宜家先諗到嘅你係急漿嘅你係冇。
Actually, I think it's Trump's narrative that makes people feel that you just thought of it now, you are in a hurry, you have no.

[20:40] 罰嘅，你冇plan嘅咁呀定係你而家呢啲
punishment, you have no plan, so is it that you now these

[21:02] 罰嘅，你冇plan嘅咁呀定係你而家呢啲面講嘅嘢但係事實同啲領袖後面呢，你係同

[21:05] 面講嘅嘢但係事實同啲領袖後面呢，你係同參聯會議主席，有曬成套計劃，我哋分進行

[21:10] 參聯會議主席，有曬成套計劃，我哋分進行，我而家幫你哋清除曬，然之後第2個階段

[21:14] ，我而家幫你哋清除曬，然之後第2個階段先加入啦。

[21:18] 先加入啦。定係而家個口述就係話嗱你而家就先咗先啦，然之後當我哋準備好曬嘅時候

[21:21] 就先咗先啦，然之後當我哋準備好曬嘅時候，你哋突然間就跳入嚟加入啦，我哋殺醫一

[21:24] ，你哋突然間就跳入嚟加入啦，我哋殺醫一個措手不及啦，咁樣有冇玩到咁高嘅心理戰

[21:29] 個措手不及啦，咁樣有冇玩到咁高嘅心理戰呢又唔可以話冇嘅，即係你見到包括打誒鬼

[21:33] 呢又唔可以話冇嘅，即係你見到包括打誒鬼律呀，第啱啱打朗嘅時候，咁嗰啲出口述出

[21:38] 律呀，第啱啱打朗嘅時候，咁嗰啲出口述出入到特色嚟㗎喎？

[21:42] 入到特色嚟㗎喎？咁所以最終佢點玩呢咁？技術上我哋就即係同大家大戰咁樣嚟到呢度

[21:46] 技術上我哋就即係同大家大戰咁樣嚟到呢度，咁但係佢用邊個策略呢，我諗要提到幾日

[21:50] ，咁但係佢用邊個策略呢，我諗要提到幾日先會即係睇得清楚啲，佢係咪真係準備好曬

[21:54] 先會即係睇得清楚啲，佢係咪真係準備好曬。

[21:57] 。然之後就突然間令到成個聯盟形成呢，定係其實個聯盟永遠都形成唔到。

[21:57] 係其實個聯盟永遠都形成唔到。咁所以全世

[22:03] 係其實個聯盟永遠都形成唔到。
In fact, that alliance can never be formed.

[22:06] 咁所以全世界以後嗰個玩法，經過今次如果朗呢個示範單位係證明咗係有效嘅話呢，都幾大黃我哋。
So, the way the whole world plays in the future, if this demonstration by Ruan Lang proves to be effective, then we will have a lot of yellow.

[22:14] 以前成日講限個概個念啦咁但係都係同今次嘅證明原來係可以成功嘅話呢咁以後嗰個不對戰可能就會變返更加普遍。
We used to always talk about the concept of limitation, but with this proof that it can be successful, then the non-warfare might become more common in the future.

[22:21] 對於大國嚟講咁會係一個惡，不過呢啲係比較長遠嘅討論呀。
For major powers, it will be a disaster, but these are longer-term discussions.

[22:24] 咁咪先講到呢度呀唔該曬。
So, let's stop here for now, thank you.

[22:45] 好啦十分掘主regimechange的頓如何看戰爭時間瑞人歸民海外家的挑先
Okay, ten minutes. How do you view the digging lord regime change's war time? Swiss people return overseas to challenge.